Search results for: space syntax analysis

Authors: Maíra O. Palm, Cintia Marangoni, Ozair Souza, Noeli Sellin

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Wastes from a vegetal extracts industry (cocoa, oak, Guarana and mate) were characterized by particle size, proximate and ultimate analysis, lignocellulosic fractions, high heating value, thermal analysis (Thermogravimetric analysis – TGA, and Differential thermal analysis - DTA) and energy density to evaluate their potential as biomass in the form of briquettes for power generation. All wastes presented adequate particle sizes to briquettes production. The wastes showed high moisture content, requiring previous drying for use as briquettes. Cocoa and oak wastes had the highest volatile matter contents with maximum mass loss at 310 ºC and 450 ºC, respectively. The solvents used in the aroma extraction process influenced in the moisture content of the wastes, which was higher for mate due to water has been used as solvent. All wastes showed an insignificant loss mass after 565 °C, hence resulting in low ash content. High carbon and hydrogen contents and low sulfur and nitrogen contents were observed ensuring a low generation of sulfur and nitrous oxides. Mate and cocoa exhibited the highest carbon and lignin content, and high heating value. The dried wastes had high heating value, from 17.1 MJ/kg to 20.8 MJ/kg. The results indicate the energy potential of wastes for use as fuel in power generation.

Keywords: Agro-industrial waste, biomass, briquettes, combustion.

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Authors: Nieto Bernal W., Luna Amaya C.

Abstract:

This paper aims to present a framework for the organizational knowledge management, which seeks to deploy a standardized structure for the integrated management of knowledge is a common language based on domains, processes and global indicators inspired by the COBIT framework 5 (ISACA, 2012), which supports the integration of three technologies, enterprise information architecture (EIA), the business process modeling (BPM) and service-oriented architecture (SOA). The Gomak Framework is a management platform that seeks to integrate the information technology infrastructure, the structure of applications, information infrastructure, and business logic and business model to support a sound strategy of organizational knowledge management, low process-based approach and concurrent engineering. Concurrent engineering (CE) is a systematic approach to integrated product development that respond to customer expectations, involving all perspectives in parallel, from the beginning of the product life cycle. (European Space Agency, 2000).

Keywords: Business Process Modeling, Enterprise Information Architecture, Government and Knowledge Management, Service Oriented Architecture, Process Management.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Bugao Wang, Weifeng Wang, Xianwei Zeng

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Researches on the general rules of temperature field changing and their effects on the bridge in construction are necessary. This paper investigated the rules of temperature field changing and its effects on bridge using onsite measurement and computational analysis. Guanyinsha Bridge was used as a case study in this research. The temperature field was simulated in analyses. The effects of certain boundary conditions such as sun radiance, wind speed, and model parameters such as heat factor and specific heat on temperature field are investigated. Recommended values for these parameters are proposed. The simulated temperature field matches the measured observations with high accuracy. At the same time, the stresses and deflections of the bridge computed with the simulated temperature field matches measured values too. As a conclusion, the temperature effect analysis of reinforced concrete box girder can be conducted directly based on the reliable weather data of the concerned area.

Keywords: continuous rigid frame bridge, temperature effectanalysis, temperature field, temperature field simulation

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Authors: Li Shoutao, Gordon Lee

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Evolutionary robotics is concerned with the design of intelligent systems with life-like properties by means of simulated evolution. Approaches in evolutionary robotics can be categorized according to the control structures that represent the behavior and the parameters of the controller that undergo adaptation. The basic idea is to automatically synthesize behaviors that enable the robot to perform useful tasks in complex environments. The evolutionary algorithm searches through the space of parameterized controllers that map sensory perceptions to control actions, thus realizing a specific robotic behavior. Further, the evolutionary algorithm maintains and improves a population of candidate behaviors by means of selection, recombination and mutation. A fitness function evaluates the performance of the resulting behavior according to the robot-s task or mission. In this paper, the focus is in the use of genetic algorithms to solve a multi-objective optimization problem representing robot behaviors; in particular, the A-Compander Law is employed in selecting the weight of each objective during the optimization process. Results using an adaptive fitness function show that this approach can efficiently react to complex tasks under variable environments.

Keywords: adaptive fuzzy neural inference, evolutionary tuning

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Authors: D. Benasciutti, M. Gallina, M. Gh. Munteanu, F. Flumian

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This paper presents a numerical approach for the static and dynamic analysis of hydrodynamic radial journal bearings. In the first part, the effect of shaft and housing deformability on pressure distribution within oil film is investigated. An iterative algorithm that couples Reynolds equation with a plane finite elements (FE) structural model is solved. Viscosity-to-pressure dependency (Vogel- Barus equation) is also included. The deformed lubrication gap and the overall stress state are obtained. Numerical results are presented with reference to a typical journal bearing configuration at two different inlet oil temperatures. Obtained results show the great influence of bearing components structural deformation on oil pressure distribution, compared with results for ideally rigid components. In the second part, a numerical approach based on perturbation method is used to compute stiffness and damping matrices, which characterize the journal bearing dynamic behavior.

Keywords: Journal bearing, finite elements, deformation, dynamic analysis

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Authors: E. Osorio Schmied

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Architects commonly attempt a depiction of organic forms when their works are inspired by nature, regardless of the building site. Nevertheless it is also possible to try matching structures with natural scenery, by applying a phenomenological approach in terms of spatial operations, regarding perceptions from nature through architectural aspects such as protection, views, and orientation. This method acknowledges a relationship between place and space, where intentions towards tangible facts then become design statements. Although spaces resulting from such a process may present an effective response to the environment, they can also offer further outcomes beyond the realm of form. The hypothesis is that, in addition to recognising a bond between architecture and nature, it is also plausible to associate such perceptions with the inner ambient of buildings, by analysing features such as daylight. The case study of a single-family house in a rainforest near Valdivia, Chilean Patagonia is presented, with the intention of addressing the above notions through a discussion of the actual effects of inhabiting a place by way of a series of insights, including a revision of diagrams and photographs that assist in understanding the implications of this design practice. In addition, figures based on post-occupancy behaviour and daylighting performance relate both architectural and environmental issues to a decision-making process motivated by the observation of nature.

Keywords: Architecture, design statements, nature, perception.

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Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

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Authors: Felipe Azocar Simonet, Luis Acosta Espejo

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In this article, we will try to find an efficient boundary approximation for the bi-objective location problem with coherent coverage for two levels of hierarchy (CCLP). We present the mathematical formulation of the model used. Supported efficient solutions and unsupported efficient solutions are obtained by solving the bi-objective combinatorial problem through the weights method using a Lagrangean heuristic. Subsequently, the results are validated through the DEA analysis with the GEM index (Global efficiency measurement).

Keywords: Coherent covering location problem, efficient frontier, Lagrangian relaxation, data envelopment analysis.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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A 15-storey RC building, studied in this paper, is representative of modern building type constructed in Madina City in Saudi Arabia before 10 years ago. These buildings are almost consisting of reinforced concrete skeleton i.e. columns, beams and flat slab as well as shear walls in the stairs and elevator areas arranged in the way to have a resistance system for lateral loads (wind – earthquake loads). In this study, the dynamic properties of the 15-storey RC building were identified using ambient motions recorded at several, spatially-distributed locations within each building. Three dimensional pushover analysis (Nonlinear static analysis) was carried out using SAP2000 software incorporating inelastic material properties for concrete, infill and steel. The effect of modeling the building with and without infill walls, on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madina area has been investigated. ATC- 40 capacity and demand spectra are utilized to get the modification factor (R) for the studied building. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the expected performance of structural systems by estimating, strength and deformation demands in design, and comparing these demands to available capacities at the performance levels of interest. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Seismic assessment, pushover analysis, ambient vibration, modal update.

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Authors: A. Thomas, B. John Oommen

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Although the field of parametric Pattern Recognition (PR) has been thoroughly studied for over five decades, the use of the Order Statistics (OS) of the distributions to achieve this has not been reported. The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented in [1] for the Uniform distribution, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean. This must be contrasted with the Bayesian paradigm in which, if we are allowed to compare the testing sample with only a single point in the feature space from each class, the optimal strategy would be to achieve this based on the (Mahalanobis) distance from the corresponding central points, for example, the means. In [2], we showed that the results could be extended for a few symmetric distributions within the exponential family. In this paper, we attempt to extend these results significantly by considering asymmetric distributions within the exponential family, for some of which even the closed form expressions of the cumulative distribution functions are not available. These distributions include the Rayleigh, Gamma and certain Beta distributions. As in [1] and [2], the new scheme, referred to as Classification by Moments of Order Statistics (CMOS), attains an accuracy very close to the optimal Bayes’ bound, as has been shown both theoretically and by rigorous experimental testing.

Keywords: Classification using Order Statistics (OS), Exponential family, Moments of OS

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

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In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Dynamic DEA, Piecewise linear inputs, Piecewise linear outputs.

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Authors: A.S. Kipcak, N. Baran Acarali, S. Kolemen, N. Tugrul, E. Moroydor Derun, S. Piskin

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Fly ash is one of the residues generated in combustion, and comprises the fine particles that rise with the flue gases. Ash which does not rise is termed bottom ash [1]. In our country, it is expected that will be occurred 50 million tons of waste ash per year until 2020. Released waste from the thermal power plants is caused very significant problems as known. The fly ashes can be evaluated by using as adsorbent material. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of use of Tuncbilek fly ash like low-cost adsorbents for heavy metal adsorption. First of all, Tuncbilek fly ash was characterized. For this purpose; analysis such as sieve analysis, XRD, XRF, SEM and FT-IR were performed.

Keywords: Fly ash, heavy metal, sieve, adsorbent

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Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

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In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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Authors: Avishai Sintov, Roland Menassa, Amir Shapiro

Abstract:

Industrial robotic arms utilize multiple end-effectors, each for a specific part and for a specific task. We propose a novel algorithm which will define a single end-effector’s configuration able to grasp a given set of objects with different geometries. The algorithm will have great benefit in production lines allowing a single robot to grasp various parts. Hence, reducing the number of endeffectors needed. Moreover, the algorithm will reduce end-effector design and manufacturing time and final product cost. The algorithm searches for a common grasp over the set of objects. The search algorithm maps all possible grasps for each object which satisfy a quality criterion and takes into account possible external wrenches (forces and torques) applied to the object. The mapped grasps are- represented by high-dimensional feature vectors which describes the shape of the gripper. We generate a database of all possible grasps for each object in the feature space. Then we use a search and classification algorithm for intersecting all possible grasps over all parts and finding a single common grasp suitable for all objects. We present simulations of planar and spatial objects to validate the feasibility of the approach.

Keywords: Common Grasping, Search Algorithm, Robotic End-Effector.

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Authors: Yukiyo Yamamoto, Jun Furuya, Shintaro Kobayashi

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Using 1km grid datasets representing monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean temperature, and dry matter production (DMP), we considered the regional plant production ability in Southeast and South Asia, and also employed pixel-by-pixel correlation analysis to assess the intensity of relation between climate factors and plant production. While annual DMP in South Asia was approximately less than 2,000kg, the one in most part of Southeast Asia exceeded 2,500 - 3,000kg. It suggested that plant production in Southeast Asia was superior to South Asia, however, Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) representing dry matter production per 1mm precipitation showed that inland of Indochina Peninsula and India were higher than islands in Southeast Asia. By the results of correlation analysis between climate factors and DMP, while the area in most parts of Indochina Peninsula indicated negative correlation coefficients between DMP and precipitation or temperature, the area in Malay Peninsula and islands showed negative correlation to precipitation and positive one to temperature, and most part of India dominating South Asia showed positive to precipitation and negative to temperature. In addition, the areas where the correlation coefficients exceeded |0.8| were regarded as “susceptible" to climate factors, and the areas smaller than |0.2| were “insusceptible". By following the discrimination, the map implying expected impacts by climate change was provided.

Keywords: Asia, correlation analysis, plant production, precipitation, temperature.

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Authors: W. S. Hsu, Y. Chiang, Y. S. Tseng, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

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Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of NPPs in Taiwan after Japan Fukushima NPP disaster occurred. Hence, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP spent fuel pool (SFP), by using TRACE, MELCOR, and SNAP codes, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed. There were two main steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established. Second, the transient analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition (Fukushima-like condition). The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case, and the fuel uncover happened roughly at 4^th day after the failure of cooling system. The above results indicated that Kuosheng NPP SFP may be unsafe in the case of long-term SBO situation. In addition, future calculations were needed to be done by the other codes like FRAPTRAN for the cladding calculations.

Keywords: TRACE, MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool.

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Authors: Long Kim Vu, Ban Dang Nguyen

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In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) is utilized to simulate the comprehensive process including tightening, releasing and self-loosening of a bolt joint under transverse vibration. Following to the accurate geometry of helical threads, an absolutely hexahedral meshing is implemented. The accuracy of simulation process is verified and validated by comparison with the experimental results on clamping force-vibration relationship, which shows the sufficient correlation. Further analysis with different amplitude and frequency of transverse vibration is done to determine the dominant factor inducing the failure.

Keywords: Bolt self-loosening, contact state, FEM, transverse vibration.

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Authors: Fathi M. O. Hamed, Salma F. Elkofhaifee

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The aim of this work is to detect geometrical shape objects in an image. In this paper, the object is considered to be as a circle shape. The identification requires find three characteristics, which are number, size, and location of the object. To achieve the goal of this work, this paper presents an algorithm that combines from some of statistical approaches and image analysis techniques. This algorithm has been implemented to arrive at the major objectives in this paper. The algorithm has been evaluated by using simulated data, and yields good results, and then it has been applied to real data.

Keywords: Image processing, median filter, projection, scalespace, segmentation, threshold.

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Authors: Mohammed H. Rady, Mohd Sukri Mustapa, S Shamsudin, M. A. Lajis, A. Wagiman

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The present study is aimed at investigating microhardness and density of aluminium alloy chips when subjected to various settings of preheating temperature and preheating time. Three values of preheating temperature were taken as 450 °C, 500 °C, and 550 °C. On the other hand, three values of preheating time were chosen (1, 2, 3) hours. The influences of the process parameters (preheating temperature and time) were analyzed using Design of Experiments (DOE) approach whereby full factorial design with center point analysis was adopted. The total runs were 11 and they comprise of two factors of full factorial design with 3 center points. The responses were microhardness and density. The results showed that the density and microhardness increased with decreasing the preheating temperature. The results also found that the preheating temperature is more important to be controlled rather than the preheating time in microhardness analysis while both the preheating temperature and preheating time are important in density analysis. It can be concluded that setting temperature at 450 °C for 1 hour resulted in the optimum responses.

Keywords: AA6061, density, DOE, hot extrusion, microhardness.

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Authors: A. Maria G. Melero, A. M. Senna, J. A. Domingues, M. A. Hausen, E. Aparecida R. Duek, V. R. Botaro

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A hydrogel from cellulose acetate cross linked with ethylenediaminetetraacetic dianhydride (HAC-EDTA) was synthesized by our research group, and submitted to characterization and biological tests. Cytocompatibility analysis was performed by confocal microscopy using human adipocyte derived stem cells (ASCs). The FTIR analysis showed characteristic bands of cellulose acetate and hydroxyl groups and the tensile tests evidence that HAC-EDTA present a Young’s modulus of 643.7 MPa. The confocal analysis revealed that there was cell growth at the surface of HAC-EDTA. After one day of culture the cells presented spherical morphology, which may be caused by stress of the sequestration of Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ ions at the cell medium by HAC-EDTA, as demonstrated by ICP-MS. However, after seven days and 14 days of culture, the cells present fibroblastoid morphology, phenotype expected by this cellular type. The results give efforts to indicate this new material as a potential biomaterial for tissue engineering, in the future in vivo approach.

Keywords: Cellulose acetate, hydrogel, biomaterial, cellular growth.

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Authors: B. Singh, K. K. Agrawal, B. K. Nanda

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In built-up structures, one of the effective ways of dissipating unwanted vibration is to exploit the occurrence of slip at the interfaces of structural laminates. The present work focuses on the dynamic analysis of welded structures. A mathematical formulation has been developed for the mechanism of slip damping in layered and welded mild steel beams with unequal thickness subjected to both periodic and non-periodic forces. It is observed that a number of vital parameters such as; thickness ratio, pressure distribution characteristics, relative slip and kinematic co-efficient of friction at the interfaces, nature of exciting forces, length and thickness of the beam specimen govern the damping characteristics of these structures. Experimental verification has been carried out to validate the analysis and study the effect of these parameters. The developed damping model for the structure is found to be in fairly good agreement with the measured data. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed and rationalized.

Keywords: Slip damping, tack welded joint, thickness ratio, inplane bending stress

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Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

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In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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Authors: Xueqin Shan, Chuanming Wu, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye

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Successful public-private-partnership (PPP) implementation can not be achieved without the active participation of private sector companies. This paper examines the decision-making of private sector companies in public works delivered by the PPP model on the basis of social responsibility theory. It proposes that private sector companies should indentify objectives of entering into PPP projects, and shoulder relevant social responsibilities, while a minimum return should also be guaranteed in their favor, so as to compensate for their assumed risk and support them to take on responsibilities in the future. The paper also gives a calculation regarding the appropriate scale and reasonable degree of private sector involvement in PPP projects through the cost-benefit analysis in a specific case study, with the purpose to guide the private sector companies to create a cooperation environment resembling “symbiosis" and facilitate the smooth implementation of public works delivered by the PPP model.

Keywords: Social Responsibility Theory, Cost-benefit Analysis, PPP Projects, Private Sector Companies, Decision-making Modell

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Authors: M. Adeel

Abstract:

The damage tolerance behavior of integrally and conventional stiffened panel is investigated based on the fracture mechanics and finite element analysis. The load bearing capability and crack growth characteristic of both types of the stiffened panels having same configuration subjected to distributed tensile load is examined in this paper. A fourteen-stringer stiffened panel is analyzed for a central skin crack propagating towards the adjacent stringers. Stress intensity factors and fatigue crack propagation rates of both types of the stiffened panels are then compared. The analysis results show that integral stiffening causes higher stress intensity factor than conventional stiffened panel as the crack tip passes through the stringer and the integrally stiffened panel has less load bearing capability than the riveted stiffened panel.

Keywords: Conventional Stiffened Structure, Damage Tolerance, Finite Element Analysis, Integrally Stiffened Structure, Stress Intensity Factor.

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Authors: Kyogun Chang, Yoon Bok Lee

Abstract:

Fault detection determines faultexistence and detecting time. This paper discusses two layered fault detection methods to enhance the reliability and safety. Two layered fault detection methods consist of fault detection methods of component level controllers and system level controllers. Component level controllers detect faults by using limit checking, model-based detection, and data-driven detection and system level controllers execute detection by stability analysis which can detect unknown changes. System level controllers compare detection results via stability with fault signals from lower level controllers. This paper addresses fault detection methods via stability and suggests fault detection criteria in nonlinear systems. The fault detection method applies tothe hybrid control unit of a military hybrid electric vehicleso that the hybrid control unit can detect faults of the traction motor.

Keywords: Two Layered Fault Detection, Stability Analysis, Fault-Tolerant Control

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Authors: Sukir Maryanto, Didik R. Santosa, Iyan Mulyana, Muhammad Hendrasto

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Successive event of explosion earthquake and harmonic tremor recorded at Semeru volcano were analyzed to investigate the dynamical system regarding to their eruptive mechanism. The eruptive activity at Semeru volcano East Java, Indonesia is intermittent emission of ash and bombs with Strombolian style which occurred at interval of 15 to 45 minutes. The explosive eruptions accompanied by explosion earthquakes and followed by volcanic tremor which generated by continuous emission of volcanic ash. The spectral and Lyapunov exponent of successive event of explosion and harmonic tremor were analyzed. Peak frequencies of explosion earthquakes range 1.2 to 1.9 Hz and those of the harmonic tremor have peak frequency range 1.5 — 2.2 Hz. The phase space is reconstructed and evaluated based on the Lyapunov exponents. Harmonic tremors have smaller Lyapunov exponent than explosion earthquakes. It can be considerably as correlated complexity of the mechanism from the variance of spectral and fractal dimension and can be concluded that the successive event of harmonic tremor and explosions are chaotic.

Keywords: Semeru volcano, explosion earthquakes, harmonic tremor, lyapunov exponent, chaotic.

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

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Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Hsiao-Tien Pao, Yi-Ying Li, Hsin-Chia Fu

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This paper addressed the impacts of energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and population size on environmental degradation using grey relational analysis (GRA) for China, where foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows is the proxy variable for financial development. The more recent historical data during the period 2004–2011 are used, because the use of very old data for data analysis may not be suitable for rapidly developing countries. The results of the GRA indicate that the linkage effects of energy consumption–emissions and GDP–emissions are ranked first and second, respectively. These reveal that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated with emissions. Higher economic growth requires more energy consumption and increasing environmental pollution. Likewise, more efficient energy use needs a higher level of economic development. Therefore, policies to improve energy efficiency and create a low-carbon economy can reduce emissions without hurting economic growth. The finding of FDI–emissions linkage is ranked third. This indicates that China do not apply weak environmental regulations to attract inward FDI. Furthermore, China’s government in attracting inward FDI should strengthen environmental policy. The finding of population–emissions linkage effect is ranked fourth, implying that population size does not directly affect CO₂ emissions, even though China has the world’s largest population, and Chinese people are very economical use of energy-related products. Overall, the energy conservation, improving efficiency, managing demand, and financial development, which aim at curtailing waste of energy, reducing both energy consumption and emissions, and without loss of the country’s competitiveness, can be adopted for developing economies. The GRA is one of the best way to use a lower data to build a dynamic analysis model.

Keywords: Grey relational analysis, foreign direct investment, CO2 emissions, China.

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Authors: Guyue Zhu, Liangping Hong

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Chinese overall urban design faces a large number of problems such as the neglect of urban characteristics, generalization of content, and difficulty in implementation. Focusing on these issues, this paper proposes the main points of shaping urban characteristics in overall urban design: focuses on core problems in city function and scale, landscape pattern, historical culture, social resources and modern city style and digs the urban characteristic genes. Then, we put forward “core problem location and characteristic gene enhancement” as a kind of overall urban design technical method. Firstly, based on the main problems in urban space as a whole, for the operability goal, the method extracts the key genes and integrates into the multi-dimension system in a targeted manner. Secondly, hierarchical management and guidance system is established which may be in line with administrative management. Finally, by converting the results, action plan is drawn up that can be dynamically implemented. Based on the above idea and method, a practical exploration has been performed in the case of Xiangyang central city.

Keywords: City characteristics, overall urban design, planning implementation, Xiangyang central city.

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