Search results for: predictive maintenance machine learning

Authors: Neeraj Mohan, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

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Software maintenance is extremely important activity in software development life cycle. It involves a lot of human efforts, cost and time. Software maintenance may be further subdivided into different activities such as fault prediction, fault detection, fault prevention, fault correction etc. This topic has gained substantial attention due to sophisticated and complex applications, commercial hardware, clustered architecture and artificial intelligence. In this paper we surveyed the work done in the field of software maintenance. Software fault prediction has been studied in context of fault prone modules, self healing systems, developer information, maintenance models etc. Still a lot of things like modeling and weightage of impact of different kind of faults in the various types of software systems need to be explored in the field of fault severity.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Software Maintenance, Automated Fault Prediction, and Failure Mode Analysis

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Authors: X. Z. Gao, S. J. Ovaska, X. Wang

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Prediction of sinusoidal signals with time-varying frequencies has been an important research topic in power electronics systems. To solve this problem, we propose a new fuzzy predictive filtering scheme, which is based on a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter bank. Fuzzy logic is introduced here to provide appropriate interpolation of individual filter outputs. Therefore, instead of regular 'hard' switching, our method has the advantageous 'soft' switching among different filters. Simulation comparisons between the fuzzy predictive filtering and conventional filter bank-based approach are made to demonstrate that the new scheme can achieve an enhanced prediction performance for slowly changing sinusoidal input signals.

Keywords: Predictive filtering, fuzzy logic, sinusoidal signals, time-varying frequencies.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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With the continuous increment of smart meter installations across the globe, the need for processing of the load data is evident. Clustering-based load profiling is built upon the utilization of unsupervised machine learning tools for the purpose of formulating the typical load curves or load profiles. The most commonly used algorithm in the load profiling literature is the K-means. While the algorithm has been successfully tested in a variety of applications, its drawback is the strong dependence in the initialization phase. This paper proposes a novel modified form of the K-means that addresses the aforementioned problem. Simulation results indicate the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to the K-means.

Keywords: Clustering, load profiling, load modeling, machine learning, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: M. R. Homaeinezhad, E. Tavakkoli, M. Habibi, S. A. Atyabi, A. Ghaffari

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This paper describes a new supervised fusion (hybrid) electrocardiogram (ECG) classification solution consisting of a new QRS complex geometrical feature extraction as well as a new version of the learning vector quantization (LVQ) classification algorithm aimed for overcoming the stability-plasticity dilemma. Toward this objective, after detection and delineation of the major events of ECG signal via an appropriate algorithm, each QRS region and also its corresponding discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are supposed as virtual images and each of them is divided into eight polar sectors. Then, the curve length of each excerpted segment is calculated and is used as the element of the feature space. To increase the robustness of the proposed classification algorithm versus noise, artifacts and arrhythmic outliers, a fusion structure consisting of five different classifiers namely as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Modified Learning Vector Quantization (MLVQ) and three Multi Layer Perceptron-Back Propagation (MLP–BP) neural networks with different topologies were designed and implemented. The new proposed algorithm was applied to all 48 MIT–BIH Arrhythmia Database records (within–record analysis) and the discrimination power of the classifier in isolation of different beat types of each record was assessed and as the result, the average accuracy value Acc=98.51% was obtained. Also, the proposed method was applied to 6 number of arrhythmias (Normal, LBBB, RBBB, PVC, APB, PB) belonging to 20 different records of the aforementioned database (between– record analysis) and the average value of Acc=95.6% was achieved. To evaluate performance quality of the new proposed hybrid learning machine, the obtained results were compared with similar peer– reviewed studies in this area.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Curve Length Method, SupportVector Machine, Learning Vector Quantization, Multi Layer Perceptron, Fusion (Hybrid) Classification, Arrhythmia Classification, Supervised Learning Machine.

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Authors: Elangeshwaran Pathmanathan, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam

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This paper aims to develop a NOx emission model of an acid gas incinerator using Nelder-Mead least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). Malaysia DOE is actively imposing the Clean Air Regulation to mandate the installation of analytical instrumentation known as Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS) to report emission level online to DOE . As a hardware based analyzer, CEMS is expensive, maintenance intensive and often unreliable. Therefore, software predictive technique is often preferred and considered as a feasible alternative to replace the CEMS for regulatory compliance. The LS-SVR model is built based on the emissions from an acid gas incinerator that operates in a LNG Complex. Simulated Annealing (SA) is first used to determine the initial hyperparameters which are then further optimized based on the performance of the model using Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. The LS-SVR model is shown to outperform a benchmark model based on backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) in both training and testing data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, industrial pollution, predictive algorithms, support vector machines

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Authors: Roy Fritzsche, Rainer Lasch

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Avoidable unscheduled maintenance events and unnecessary spare parts deliveries are mostly caused by an incorrect choice of the underlying maintenance strategy. For a faster and more efficient supply of spare parts for aircrafts of an airline we examine options for improving the underlying logistics network integrated in an existing aviation industry network. This paper presents a dynamic prediction model as decision support for maintenance method selection considering requirements of an entire flight network. The objective is to guarantee a high supply of spare parts by an optimal interaction of various network levels and thus to reduce unscheduled maintenance events and minimize total costs. By using a prognostics-based preventive maintenance strategy unscheduled component failures are avoided for an increase in availability and reliability of the entire system. The model is intended for use in an aviation company that utilizes a structured planning process based on collected failures data of components.

Keywords: Aviation industry, Prognosis, Reliability, Preventive maintenance.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi

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Due to the fast and flawless technological innovation there is a tremendous amount of data dumping all over the world in every domain such as Pattern Recognition, Machine Learning, Spatial Data Mining, Image Analysis, Fraudulent Analysis, World Wide Web etc., This issue turns to be more essential for developing several tools for data mining functionalities. The major aim of this paper is to analyze various tools which are used to build a resourceful analytical or descriptive model for handling large amount of information more efficiently and user friendly. In this survey the diverse tools are illustrated with their extensive technical paradigm, outstanding graphical interface and inbuilt multipath algorithms in which it is very useful for handling significant amount of data more indeed.

Keywords: Classification, Clustering, Data Mining, Machine learning, Visualization.

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Authors: Shilpy Sharma

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As the web continues to grow exponentially, the idea of crawling the entire web on a regular basis becomes less and less feasible, so the need to include information on specific domain, domain-specific search engines was proposed. As more information becomes available on the World Wide Web, it becomes more difficult to provide effective search tools for information access. Today, people access web information through two main kinds of search interfaces: Browsers (clicking and following hyperlinks) and Query Engines (queries in the form of a set of keywords showing the topic of interest) [2]. Better support is needed for expressing one's information need and returning high quality search results by web search tools. There appears to be a need for systems that do reasoning under uncertainty and are flexible enough to recover from the contradictions, inconsistencies, and irregularities that such reasoning involves. In a multi-view problem, the features of the domain can be partitioned into disjoint subsets (views) that are sufficient to learn the target concept. Semi-supervised, multi-view algorithms, which reduce the amount of labeled data required for learning, rely on the assumptions that the views are compatible and uncorrelated. This paper describes the use of semi-structured machine learning approach with Active learning for the “Domain Specific Search Engines". A domain-specific search engine is “An information access system that allows access to all the information on the web that is relevant to a particular domain. The proposed work shows that with the help of this approach relevant data can be extracted with the minimum queries fired by the user. It requires small number of labeled data and pool of unlabelled data on which the learning algorithm is applied to extract the required data.

Keywords: Search engines; machine learning, Informationretrieval, Active logic.

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Authors: Yitao Lei, Xingxiang Zhai, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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As the quantity and complexity of computing in large-scale software systems increase, distributed system computing becomes increasingly important. The distributed system realizes high-performance computing by collaboration between different computing resources. If there are no efficient resource scheduling resources, the abuse of distributed computing may cause resource waste and high costs. However, resource scheduling is usually an NP-hard problem, so we cannot find a general solution. However, some optimization algorithms exist like genetic algorithm, ant colony optimization, etc. The large scale of distributed systems makes this traditional optimization algorithm challenging to work with. Heuristic and machine learning algorithms are usually applied in this situation to ease the computing load. As a result, we do a review of traditional resource scheduling optimization algorithms and try to introduce a deep reinforcement learning method that utilizes the perceptual ability of neural networks and the decision-making ability of reinforcement learning. Using the machine learning method, we try to find important factors that influence the performance of distributed system computing and help the distributed system do an efficient computing resource scheduling. This paper surveys the application of deep reinforcement learning on distributed system computing resource scheduling. The research proposes a deep reinforcement learning method that uses a recurrent neural network to optimize the resource scheduling. The paper concludes the challenges and improvement directions for Deep Reinforcement Learning-based resource scheduling algorithms.

Keywords: Resource scheduling, deep reinforcement learning, distributed system, artificial intelligence.

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Authors: Stephen Akuma, Timothy Ndera

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Information seekers get “lost in hyperspace” due to the voluminous documents updated daily on the internet. Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHS) are used to direct learners to their target goals. One of the most common AHS designed to help information seekers to overcome the problem of information overload is the Adaptive Education Hypermedia System (AEHS). However, this paper focuses on AEHS that adopts the learning preference of high school students and deliver learning content according to this preference throughout their learning experience. The research developed a prototype system for predicting students’ learning preference from the Visual, Aural, Read-Write and Kinesthetic (VARK) learning style model and adopting the learning content suitable to their preference. The predicting strength of several classifiers was compared and we found Support Vector Machine (SVM) to be more accurate in predicting learning style based on users’ preferences.

Keywords: Hypermedia, adaptive education, learning style, lesson content, user profile, prediction, feedback, adaptive hypermedia, learning style.

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Authors: Hager Kammoun, Jean Charles Lamirel, Mohamed Ben Ahmed

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In this paper, a model for an information retrieval system is proposed which takes into account that knowledge about documents and information need of users are dynamic. Two methods are combined, one qualitative or symbolic and the other quantitative or numeric, which are deemed suitable for many clustering contexts, data analysis, concept exploring and knowledge discovery. These two methods may be classified as inductive learning techniques. In this model, they are introduced to build “long term" knowledge about past queries and concepts in a collection of documents. The “long term" knowledge can guide and assist the user to formulate an initial query and can be exploited in the process of retrieving relevant information. The different kinds of knowledge are organized in different points of view. This may be considered an enrichment of the exploration level which is coherent with the concept of document/query structure.

Keywords: Information Retrieval Systems, machine learning, classification, Galois lattices, Self Organizing Map.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

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This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jimmy Nagau, Jack Molinié

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Palynology is a field of interest in many disciplines due to its multiple applications: chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which are becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. In this context, the automation of this task is urgent. In this work, we compare classical feature extraction methods (Shape, GLCM, LBP, and others) and Deep Learning (CNN and Transfer Learning) to perform a recognition task over 80 regional pollen species. It has been found that the use of Transfer Learning seems to be more precise than the other approaches.

Keywords: Image segmentation, stuck particles separation, Sobel operator, thresholding.

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: Cyber-security, Intrusion Detection Systems, Temporal Graph Network, Anomaly Detection.

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Authors: Mohsen Soori, Fooad Karimi Ghaleh Jough

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The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques in the optimization of steel moment frame structures represents a transformative approach to enhance the design, analysis, and performance of these critical engineering systems. The review encompasses a wide spectrum of AI methods, including machine learning algorithms, evolutionary algorithms, neural networks, and optimization techniques, applied to address various challenges in the field. The synthesis of research findings highlights the interdisciplinary nature of AI applications in structural engineering, emphasizing the synergy between domain expertise and advanced computational methodologies. This synthesis aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers seeking a comprehensive understanding of the state-of-the-art in AI-driven optimization for steel moment frame structures. The paper commences with an overview of the fundamental principles governing steel moment frame structures and identifies the key optimization objectives, such as efficiency of structures. Subsequently, it delves into the application of AI in the conceptual design phase, where algorithms aid in generating innovative structural configurations and optimizing material utilization. The review also explores the use of AI for real-time structural health monitoring and predictive maintenance, contributing to the long-term sustainability and reliability of steel moment frame structures. Furthermore, the paper investigates how AI-driven algorithms facilitate the calibration of structural models, enabling accurate prediction of dynamic responses and seismic performance. Thus, by reviewing and analyzing the recent achievements in applications artificial intelligent in optimization of steel moment frame structures, the process of designing, analysis, and performance of the structures can be analyzed and modified.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligent, optimization process, steel moment frame, structural engineering.

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Authors: Djamila Benhaddouche, Abdelkader Benyettou

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In this paper, we used data mining to extract biomedical knowledge. In general, complex biomedical data collected in studies of populations are treated by statistical methods, although they are robust, they are not sufficient in themselves to harness the potential wealth of data. For that you used in step two learning algorithms: the Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These supervised classification methods are used to make the diagnosis of thyroid disease. In this context, we propose to promote the study and use of symbolic data mining techniques.

Keywords: A classifier, Algorithms decision tree, knowledge extraction, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: Decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: Nerijus Remeikis, Ignas Skucas, Vida Melninkaite

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Text categorization - the assignment of natural language documents to one or more predefined categories based on their semantic content - is an important component in many information organization and management tasks. Performance of neural networks learning is known to be sensitive to the initial weights and architecture. This paper discusses the use multilayer neural network initialization with decision tree classifier for improving text categorization accuracy. An adaptation of the algorithm is proposed in which a decision tree from root node until a final leave is used for initialization of multilayer neural network. The experimental evaluation demonstrates this approach provides better classification accuracy with Reuters-21578 corpus, one of the standard benchmarks for text categorization tasks. We present results comparing the accuracy of this approach with multilayer neural network initialized with traditional random method and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Text categorization, decision trees, neural networks, machine learning.

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Authors: Z. M. Najmi

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Over the years, the question around Artificial Intelligence has always been one with many answers. Whether by means of use in business and industry or complicated algorithmic programming, management of these technologies has always been the core focus. More recently, technologies have been questioned in industry and society alike as to whether they have improved human-centred design, assisted choices and objectives, and had a hand in systematic processes across the board. With these questions the answer may lie within AI technologies, and the steps needed in removing common human error. Elements such as Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Recommender Systems and Natural Language Processing will all be features to consider moving forward. Our previous intervention with AI applications has resulted in increased productivity, however, raised concerns for the continuation of traditional human-centred occupations. Emerging technologies such as Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality have all played a part in this during AI’s prominent rise. As mentioned, AI has been constantly under the microscope; the benefits and drawbacks may seem endless is wide, but AI is something we must take notice of and adapt into our everyday lives. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the technologies surrounding A.I. and its’ related technologies. A comprehensive review has been written as a timeline of the developing events and key points in the history of Artificial Intelligence. This research is gathered entirely from secondary research, academic statements of knowledge and gathered to produce an understanding of the timeline of AI.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Augmented Reality, Reinforcement Learning, Machine Learning, Supervised Learning.

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Authors: Yuan J. Lui

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Prospective readers can quickly determine whether a document is relevant to their information need if the significant phrases (or keyphrases) in this document are provided. Although keyphrases are useful, not many documents have keyphrases assigned to them, and manually assigning keyphrases to existing documents is costly. Therefore, there is a need for automatic keyphrase extraction. This paper introduces a new domain independent keyphrase extraction algorithm. The algorithm approaches the problem of keyphrase extraction as a classification task, and uses a combination of statistical and computational linguistics techniques, a new set of attributes, and a new machine learning method to distinguish keyphrases from non-keyphrases. The experiments indicate that this algorithm performs better than other keyphrase extraction tools and that it significantly outperforms Microsoft Word 2000-s AutoSummarize feature. The domain independence of this algorithm has also been confirmed in our experiments.

Keywords: classification, keyphrase extraction, machine learning, summarization

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Authors: Amit Gil, Helman Stern, Yael Edan

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A cognitive collaborative reinforcement learning algorithm (CCRL) that incorporates an advisor into the learning process is developed to improve supervised learning. An autonomous learner is enabled with a self awareness cognitive skill to decide when to solicit instructions from the advisor. The learner can also assess the value of advice, and accept or reject it. The method is evaluated for robotic motion planning using simulation. Tests are conducted for advisors with skill levels from expert to novice. The CCRL algorithm and a combined method integrating its logic with Clouse-s Introspection Approach, outperformed a base-line fully autonomous learner, and demonstrated robust performance when dealing with various advisor skill levels, learning to accept advice received from an expert, while rejecting that of less skilled collaborators. Although the CCRL algorithm is based on RL, it fits other machine learning methods, since advisor-s actions are only added to the outer layer.

Keywords: Robot learning, human-robot collaboration, motion planning, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Kaveh Mollazade, Hojat Ahmadi, Mahmoud Omid, Reza Alimardani

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Recently, the issue of machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis as a part of maintenance system became global due to the potential advantages to be gained from reduced maintenance costs, improved productivity and increased machine availability. The aim of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of a new fault diagnosis method based on power spectral density (PSD) of vibration signals in combination with decision trees and fuzzy inference system (FIS). To this end, a series of studies was conducted on an external gear hydraulic pump. After a test under normal condition, a number of different machine defect conditions were introduced for three working levels of pump speed (1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm), corresponding to (i) Journal-bearing with inner face wear (BIFW), (ii) Gear with tooth face wear (GTFW), and (iii) Journal-bearing with inner face wear plus Gear with tooth face wear (B&GW). The features of PSD values of vibration signal were extracted using descriptive statistical parameters. J48 algorithm is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The output of J48 algorithm was employed to produce the crisp if-then rule and membership function sets. The structure of FIS classifier was then defined based on the crisp sets. In order to evaluate the proposed PSD-J48-FIS model, the data sets obtained from vibration signals of the pump were used. Results showed that the total classification accuracy for 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm conditions were 96.42%, 100%, and 96.42% respectively. The results indicate that the combined PSD-J48-FIS model has the potential for fault diagnosis of hydraulic pumps.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density, Machine ConditionMonitoring, Hydraulic Pump, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

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In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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Authors: Chinlun Lai, Lunjyh Jiang

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Due to the heavy burden and pressure of caring for infants, an integrated automatic baby watching system based on IoT smart sensing and deep learning machine vision techniques is proposed in this paper. By monitoring infant body conditions such as heartbeat, breathing, body temperature, sleeping posture, as well as the surrounding conditions such as dangerous/sharp objects, light, noise, humidity and temperature, the proposed system can analyze and predict the obvious/potential dangerous conditions according to observed data and then adopt suitable actions in real time to protect the infant from harm. Thus, reducing the burden of the caregiver and improving safety efficiency of the caring work. The experimental results show that the proposed system works successfully for the infant care work and thus can be implemented in various life fields practically.

Keywords: Baby care system, internet of things, deep learning, machine vision.

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Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

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In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l₂-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: Linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control.

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Authors: Jian Zheng, Yoshiyasu Takahashi, Yuichi Kobayashi, Tatsuhiro Sato

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In the study, we present a conceptual framework for developing a scheduling system that can generate self-explanatory and easy-understanding schedules. To this end, a user interface is conceived to help planners record factors that are considered crucial in scheduling, as well as internal and external sources relating to such factors. A hybrid approach combining machine learning and constraint programming is developed to generate schedules and the corresponding factors, and accordingly display them on the user interface. Effects of the proposed system on scheduling are discussed, and it is expected that scheduling efficiency and system understandability will be improved, compared with previous scheduling systems.

Keywords: Constraint programming, Factors considered in scheduling, machine learning, scheduling system.

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: H. Anıl, G. Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations, since the geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning and time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Doğal Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was predicted for the first one-week and first two-weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting.

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