Search results for: cognitive demand

Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: Expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption.

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Authors: M. Nassereddine, A. Hellany, M. Nagrial, J. Rizk

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The demand on High voltage (HV) infrastructures is growing due to the corresponding growth in industries and population. Many areas are being developed and therefore require additional electrical power to comply with the demand. Substation upgrade is one of the rapid solutions to ensure the continuous supply of power to customers. This upgrade requires civil modifications to structures and fences. The civil work requires excavation and steel works that may create unsafe touch conditions. This paper presents a brief theoretical overview of the touch voltage inside and around substations and uses CDEGS software to simulate a case study.

Keywords: Earth safety, High Voltage, AC interference, Earthing Design.

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Authors: Ebtehal Alawi Alsaggaf, Shehab A. Gamalel-Din

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Exploring an autistic child in Elementary school is a difficult task that must be fully thought out and the teachers should be aware of the many challenges they face raising their child especially the behavioral problems of autistic children. Hence there arises a need for developing Artificial intelligence (AI) Contemporary Techniques to help diagnosis to discover autistic people. In this research, we suggest designing architecture of expert system that combine Cognitive Maps (CM) with Case Based Reasoning technique (CBR) in order to reduce time and costs of traditional diagnosis process for the early detection to discover autistic children. The teacher is supposed to enter child's information for analyzing by CM module. Then, the reasoning processor would translate the output into a case to be solved a current problem by CBR module. We will implement a prototype for the model as a proof of concept using java and MYSQL. This will be provided a new hybrid approach that will achieve new synergies and improve problem solving capabilities in AI. And we will predict that will reduce time, costs, the number of human errors and make expertise available to more people who want who want to serve autistic children and their families.

Keywords: Autism, Cognitive Maps (CM), Case Based Reasoning technique (CBR).

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Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh

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Kuwait-s electric power system is vertically integrated organization owned and operated by the government. For more than five decades, the government of Kuwait has provided relatively reliable electric services to consumers with subsidized electric service fees. Given the country-s rapid socio-economical development and consequently the increase of electricity demand, a question that inflicts itself: Is it necessary to reform the power system to face the fast growing demand? This paper recommends that the government should consider the private sector as a partner in operating the power system. Therefore, power system restructuring is needed to allow such partnership. There are challenges that prevent such restructuring. Abstract recommendations toward resolving these challenges are proposed.

Keywords: Deregulation, electricity market, ISO, private sector.

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Authors: Comfort Mokgothu

Abstract:

This study investigated the relation between processing information and fitness level of active (fit) and sedentary (unfit) children drawn from rural and urban areas in Botswana. It was hypothesized that fit children would display faster simple reaction time (SRT), choice reaction times (CRT) and movement times (SMT). 60, third grade children (7.0 – 9.0 years) were initially selected and based upon fitness testing, 45 participated in the study (15 each of fit urban, unfit urban, fit rural). All children completed anthropometric measures, skinfold testing and submaximal cycle ergometer testing. The cognitive testing included SRT, CRT, SMT and Choice Movement Time (CMT) and memory sequence length. Results indicated that the rural fit group exhibited faster SMT than the urban fit and unfit groups. For CRT, both fit groups were faster than the unfit group. Collectively, the study shows that the relationship that exists between physical fitness and cognitive function amongst the elderly can tentatively be extended to the pediatric population. Physical fitness could be a factor in the speed at which we process information, including decision making, even in children.

Keywords: Decision making, fitness, information processing, reaction time, cognition movement time.

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Authors: Susovan Chakrabortty, Madhumangal Pal, Prasun Kumar Nayak

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A manufacturing inventory model with shortages with carrying cost, shortage cost, setup cost and demand quantity as imprecise numbers, instead of real numbers, namely interval number is considered here. First, a brief survey of the existing works on comparing and ranking any two interval numbers on the real line is presented. A common algorithm for the optimum production quantity (Economic lot-size) per cycle of a single product (so as to minimize the total average cost) is developed which works well on interval number optimization under consideration. Finally, the designed algorithm is illustrated with numerical example.

Keywords: EOQ, Inventory, Interval Number, Demand, Production, Simulation

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Authors: Wan-Ting Liao, Angela K. Tzeng

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Empathy has been an important issue in psychology, education, as well as cognitive neuroscience. Empathy has two major components: cognitive and emotional. Cognitive component refers to the ability to understand others’ perspectives, thoughts, and actions, whereas emotional component refers to understand how others feel. Empathy can be induced, attitude can then be changed, and with enough attitude change, helping behavior can occur. This finding leads us to two questions: is attitude change really necessary for prosocial behavior? And, what roles cognitive and affective empathy play? For the second question, participants with different psychopathic personality (PP) traits are critical because high PP people were found to suffer only affective empathy deficit. Their cognitive empathy shows no significant difference from the control group. 132 college students voluntarily participated in the current three-stage study. Stage 1 was to collect basic information including Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI), Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R), Attitude Scale, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and demographic data. Stage two was for empathy induction with three controversial scenarios, namely domestic violence, depression with a suicide attempt, and an ex-offender. Participants read all three stories and then rewrite the stories by one of two perspectives (empathetic vs. objective). They would then complete the VAS and Attitude Scale one more time for their post-attitude and emotional status. Three IVs were introduced for data analysis: PP (High vs. Low), Responsibility (whether or not the character is responsible for what happened), and Perspective-taking (Empathic vs. Objective). Stage 3 was for the action. Participants were instructed to freely use the 17 tokens they received as donations. They were debriefed and interviewed at the end of the experiment. The major findings were people with higher empathy tend to take more action in helping. Attitude change is not necessary for prosocial behavior. The controversy of the scenarios and how familiar participants are towards target groups play very important roles. Finally, people with high PP tend to show more public prosocial behavior due to their affective empathy deficit. Pre-existing value and belief as well as recent dramatic social events seem to have a big impact and possibly reduce the effect of the independent variables (IV) in our paradigm.

Keywords: Affective empathy, attitude, cognitive empathy, prosocial behavior, psychopathic traits.

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Authors: Amit Kumar Jakhar, Kumar Rajnish

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Inherited complexity is one of the difficult tasks in software engineering field. Further, it is said that there is no physical laws or standard guidelines suit for designing different types of software. Hence, to make the software engineering as a matured engineering discipline like others, it is necessary that it has its own theoretical frameworks and laws. Software designing and development is a human effort which takes a lot of time and considers various parameters for successful completion of the software. The cognitive informatics plays an important role for understanding the essential characteristics of the software. The aim of this work is to consider the fundamental characteristics of the source code of Object-Oriented software i.e. complexity and understandability. The complexity of the programs is analyzed with the help of extracted important attributes of the source code, which is further utilized to evaluate the understandability factor. The aforementioned characteristics are analyzed on the basis of 16 C++ programs by distributing them to forty MCA students. They all tried to understand the source code of the given program and mean time is taken as the actual time needed to understand the program. For validation of this work, Briand’s framework is used and the presented metric is also evaluated comparatively with existing metric which proves its robustness.

Keywords: Software metrics, object-oriented, complexity, cognitive weight, understandability, basic control structures.

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Authors: Pankaj Dutta, Debjani Chakraborty

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This paper investigates the effect of product substitution in the single-period 'newsboy-type' problem in a fuzzy environment. It is supposed that the single-period problem operates under uncertainty in customer demand, which is described by imprecise terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. To perform this analysis, we consider the fuzzy model for two-item with upward substitution. This upward substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality, brand or package size. We show that the explicit consideration of this substitution opportunity increase the average expected profit. Computational study is performed to observe the benefits of product's substitution.

Keywords: Fuzzy demand, Newsboy, Single-period problem, Substitution.

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Authors: S. Jalilzadeh, A. Kimiyaghalam, A. Ashouri

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This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to analyze the losses in transmission expansion planning (TEP) under uncertainty in demand. The methodology is based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO). DPSO is a useful and powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm to solve the large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems like TEP. The effectiveness of the proposed idea is tested on an actual transmission network of the Azerbaijan regional electric company, Iran. The simulation results show that considering the losses even for transmission expansion planning of a network with low load growth is caused that operational costs decreases considerably and the network satisfies the requirement of delivering electric power more reliable to load centers.

Keywords: DPSO, TEP, Uncertainty

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Authors: Sunita Verma , Divya Tiwari, Ajay Verma

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Water samples were collected from river Pandu at six stations where human and animal activities were high. Composite samples were analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) , pH values during dry and wet seasons as well as the harmattan period. The total data points were used to establish relationships between the parameters and data were also subjected to statistical analysis and expressed as mean ± standard error of mean (SEM) at a level of significance of p<0.05. Regression analysis was carried out to establish relationships if any between studied parameters and relationships in form of scatter plots were obtained between DO/BOD, COD/DO, BOD/COD, COD/pH, BOD/pH and DO/pH. The high to moderate correlation coefficient observed, R2 ranged from 0.68 to 0.15 between these parameters.

Keywords: BOD, DO, COD, pH, Regression analysis.

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

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The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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Authors: T. Teo, S. W. Lye, Y. F. Li, Z. Zakaria

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Wearable devices such as Electroencephalography (EEG) hold immense potential in the monitoring and assessment of a person’s task engagement. This is especially so in remote or online sites. Research into its use in measuring an individual's cognitive state while performing task activities is therefore expected to increase. Despite the growing number of EEG research into brain functioning activities of a person, key challenges remain in adopting EEG for real-time operations. These include limited portability, long preparation time, high number of channel dimensionality, intrusiveness, as well as level of accuracy in acquiring neurological data. This paper proposes an approach using a 4-6 EEG channels to determine the cognitive states of a subject when undertaking a set of passive and active monitoring tasks of a subject. Air traffic controller (ATC) dynamic-tasks are used as a proxy. The work found that using a developed channel reduction and identifier algorithm, good trend adherence of 89.1% can be obtained between a commercially available brain computer interface (BCI) 14 channel Emotiv EPOC+ EEG headset and that of a carefully selected set of reduced 4-6 channels. The approach can also identify different levels of engagement activities ranging from general monitoring, ad hoc and repeated active monitoring activities involving information search, extraction, and memory activities.

Keywords: Neurophysiology, monitoring, EEG, outliers, electroencephalography.

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Authors: Yu-Wei Chen, Li-Ren Han

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In this paper, we employ the approach of linear programming to propose a new interactive broadcast method. In our method, a film S is divided into n equal parts and broadcast via k channels. The user simultaneously downloads these segments from k channels into the user-s set-top-box (STB) and plays them in order. Our method assumes that the initial p segments will not have fast-forwarding capabilities. Every time the user wants to initiate d times fast-forwarding, according to our broadcasting strategy, the necessary segments already saved in the user-s STB or are just download on time for playing. The proposed broadcasting strategy not only allows the user to pause and rewind, but also to fast-forward.

Keywords: Broadcasting, Near Video-on-Demand (VOD), Linear Programming, Video-Cassette-Recorder (VCR) Functions, Waiting Time.

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Authors: Simeon Karafolas, Maciej Woźniak

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Guarantee schemes have been introduced in the economic and financial system as response to difficulties of SMEs for the access to the banking credit. Guarantee companies first appeared at the 19e century. Last wave of the development of those schemes appeared at the decade of 1990’s in particular to the new countries members of the EU. Guarantee schemes are presented as public owned guarantee companies, private ones mainly through a mutual form, but also under a mixed form. The paper based on guarantee schemes of five countries tries to investigate the differences that can exist within different guarantee companies. This investigation is based on some indicators that are time of response to the demand of guarantee, threshold of guarantee, acceptance of applications for guarantee, jobs created or saved and bureaucratic issues. It appears that guarantee companies have not the same reaction to the demand of SMEs and some of them are much more active.

Keywords: DIFASS, Guarantees, Loans.

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Authors: Romain Bosquet, Pierre-Olivier Vandanjon, Alex Coiret, Tristan Lorino

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In the hardening energy context, the transport sector which constitutes a large worldwide energy demand has to be improving for decrease energy demand and global warming impacts. In a controversial situation where subsists an increasing demand for long-distance and high-speed travels, high-speed trains offer many advantages, as consuming significantly less energy than road or air transports. At the project phase of new rail infrastructures, it is nowadays important to characterize accurately the energy that will be induced by its operation phase, in addition to other more classical criteria as construction costs and travel time. Current literature consumption models used to estimate railways operation phase are obsolete or not enough accurate for taking into account the newest train or railways technologies. In this paper, an updated model of consumption for high-speed is proposed, based on experimental data obtained from full-scale tests performed on a new high-speed line. The assessment of the model is achieved by identifying train parameters and measured power consumptions for more than one hundred train routes. Perspectives are then discussed to use this updated model for accurately assess the energy impact of future railway infrastructures.

Keywords: High-speed train, energy, model, track profile, infrastructure

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Authors: M. A. Karim

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In countries with hot climates, air-conditioning forms a large proportion of annual peak electrical demand, requiring expansion of power plants to meet the peak demand, which goes unused most of the time. Use of well-designed cool storage can offset the peak demand to a large extent. In this study, an air conditioning system with naturally stratified storage tank was designed, constructed and tested. A new type of diffuser was designed and used in this study. Factors that influence the performance of chilled water storage tanks were investigated. The results indicated that stratified storage tank consistently stratified well without any physical barrier. Investigation also showed that storage efficiency decreased with increasing flow rate due to increased mixing of warm and chilled water. Diffuser design and layout primarily affected the mixing near the inlet diffuser and the extent of this mixing had primary influence on the shape of the thermocline. The heat conduction through tank walls and through the thermocline caused widening of mixed volume. Thermal efficiency of stratified storage tanks was as high as 90 percent, which indicates that stratified tanks can effectively be used as a load management technique.

Keywords: Cool Thermal Storage, Diffuser, Natural Stratification, Efficiency Improvement, Load management.

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Authors: S. N. Deepa, G. Sugumaran

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This paper proposes a new version of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) namely, Modified PSO (MPSO) for model order formulation of Single Input Single Output (SISO) linear time invariant continuous systems. In the General PSO, the movement of a particle is governed by three behaviors namely inertia, cognitive and social. The cognitive behavior helps the particle to remember its previous visited best position. In Modified PSO technique split the cognitive behavior into two sections like previous visited best position and also previous visited worst position. This modification helps the particle to search the target very effectively. MPSO approach is proposed to formulate the higher order model. The method based on the minimization of error between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to the unit step input. The results obtained are compared with the earlier techniques utilized, to validate its ease of computation. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical example from literature.

Keywords: Continuous System, Model Order Formulation, Modified Particle Swarm Optimization, Single Input Single Output, Transfer Function Approach

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Authors: H. Nagendra, Vinod Kumar, S. Mukherjee

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In this study, the potential benefits of playing action video game among congenitally deaf and dumb subjects is reported in terms of EEG ratio indices. The frontal and occipital lobes are associated with development of motor skills, cognition, and visual information processing and color recognition. The sixteen hours of First-Person shooter action video game play resulted in the increase of the ratios β/(α+θ) and β/θ in frontal and occipital lobes. This can be attributed to the enhancement of certain aspect of cognition among deaf and dumb subjects.

Keywords: Cognitive enhancement, video games, EEG band powers, Deaf and Dumb subjects.

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Authors: Faith-Michael E. Uzoka, Boluwaji A. Akinnuwesi, Taiwo Amoo, Flora Aladi, Stephen Fashoto, Moses Olaniyan, Joseph Osuji

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The overarching aim of this study is to develop a soft-computing system for the differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. These conditions are of concern to health bodies, physicians, and the community at large because of their mortality rates, and difficulties in early diagnosis due to the fact that they present with symptoms that overlap, and thus become ‘confusable’. We report on the first phase of our study, which focuses on the development of a fuzzy cognitive map model for early differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. We used malaria as a case disease to show the effectiveness of the FCM technology as an aid to the medical practitioner in the diagnosis of tropical diseases. Our model takes cognizance of manifested symptoms and other non-clinical factors that could contribute to symptoms manifestations. Our model showed 85% accuracy in diagnosis, as against the physicians’ initial hypothesis, which stood at 55% accuracy. It is expected that the next stage of our study will provide a multi-disease, multi-symptom model that also improves efficiency by utilizing a decision support filter that works on an algorithm, which mimics the physician’s diagnosis process.

Keywords: Medical diagnosis, tropical diseases, fuzzy cognitive map, decision support filters, malaria differential diagnosis.

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Authors: Manisha Dubey, Gaurav Gupta, Anoop Arya

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The demand for power supply increases day by day in developing countries like India henceforth demand of reactive power support in the form of ancillary services provider also has been increased. The multi-line and multi-type Flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers are playing a vital role to regulate power flow through the transmission line. Unified power flow controller and interline power flow controller can be utilized to control reactive power flow through the transmission line. In a restructured power system, the demand of such controller is being popular due to their inherent capability. The transmission pricing by using reactive power cost allocation through modified matrix methodology has been proposed. The FACTS technologies have quite costly assembly, so it is very useful to apportion the expenses throughout the restructured electricity industry. Therefore, in this work, after embedding the FACTS devices into load flow, the impact on the costs allocated to users in fraction to the transmission framework utilization has been analyzed. From the obtained results, it is clear that the total cost recovery is enhanced towards the Reactive Power flow through the different transmission line for 5 bus test system. The fair pricing policy towards reactive power can be achieved by the proposed method incorporating FACTS controller towards cost recovery of the transmission network.

Keywords: Inter line power flow controller, Transmission Pricing, Unified power flow controller, cost allocation.

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Authors: P. Winzer, E. Massarczyk

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Experts, enterprises and operators expect that the bandwidth request will increase up to rates of 100 to 1,000 Mbps within several years. Therefore the most important question is which technology shall satisfy the future consumer broadband demands. Currently the consensus is, that the fiber technology has the best technical characteristics to achieve such the high bandwidth rates. But fiber technology is so far very cost-intensive and resource consuming. To avoid these investments, operators are concentrating to upgrade the existing copper and hybrid fiber coax infrastructures. This work presents a comparison of the copper and fiber technologies including an overview about the current German broadband market. Both technologies are reviewed in the terms of demand, willingness to pay and economic efficiency in connection with the technical characteristics.

Keywords: Broadband customer demand, fiber development, G.fast, Vectoring, willingness to payfor broadband services

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Authors: Muhammad R. Alrabeiah, Ibrahim S. Alnomay

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The need in cognitive radio system for a simple, fast, and independent technique to sense the spectrum occupancy has led to the energy detection approach. Energy detector is known by its dependency on noise variation in the system which is one of its major drawbacks. In this paper, we are aiming to improve its performance by utilizing a weighted collaborative spectrum sensing, it is similar to the collaborative spectrum sensing methods introduced previously in the literature. These weighting methods give more improvement for collaborative spectrum sensing as compared to no weighting case. There is two method proposed in this paper: the first one depends on the channel status between each sensor and the primary user while the second depends on the value of the energy measured in each sensor.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, Spectrum sensing, Collaborative sensors, Weighted Decisions.

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Authors: Chansiri Singhtaun

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This paper proposes a mathematical model and examines the performance of an exact algorithm for a location– transportation problems in humanitarian relief. The model determines the number and location of distribution centers in a relief network, the amount of relief supplies to be stocked at each distribution center and the vehicles to take the supplies to meet the needs of disaster victims under capacity restriction, transportation and budgetary constraints. The computational experiments are conducted on the various sizes of problems that are generated. Branch and bound algorithm is applied for these problems. The results show that this algorithm can solve problem sizes of up to three candidate locations with five demand points and one candidate location with up to twenty demand points without premature termination.

Keywords: Disaster response, facility location, humanitarian relief, transportation.

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Authors: Shahrinaz Ismail, Mohd Sharifuddin Ahmad

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This paper presents an analytical framework for an effective online personal knowledge management (PKM) of knowledge workers. The development of this framework is prompted by our qualitative research on the PKM processes and cognitive enablers of knowledge workers in eight organisations selected from three main industries in Malaysia. This multiple-case research identifies the relationships between the effectiveness of four online PKM processes: get/retrieve, understand/analyse, share, and connect. It also establishes the importance of cognitive enablers that mediate this relationship, namely, method, identify, decide and drive. Qualitative analysis is presented as the findings, supported by the preceded quantitative analysis on an exploratory questionnaire survey.

Keywords: Bottom-up approach, knowledge organisation, organisational knowledge management, personal knowledge management, software agent technology.

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Authors: Shuh Liang

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This article provides empirical evidence on the effect of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986 to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.

Keywords: Current account deficit, productivity growth, foreign demand, vector autoregression.

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Authors: M. O. Welcome, E. V. Pereverzeva, V. A. Pereverzev

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The regulatory competence of blood glucose homeostasis might determine the degree of academic performance. The aim of this study was to produce a model of students' alcohol use based on glucose homeostasis control and cognitive functions that might define the pathogenetic mechanism of alcohol's effect on academic performance. The study took six hours and thirty minutes on fasting, involving thirteen male students. Disturbances in cognitive functions, precisely a decrease in the effectiveness of active attention and a faster development of fatigue after four to six hours of mental work in alcohol users, compared to abstainers was statistically proven. These disturbances in alcohol users were retained even after seven to ten days of moderate alcohol use and might be the reason for the low academic performances among students who use alcoholic beverages.

Keywords: Alcohol, academic performance, pathogenetic mechanism.

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Authors: Martha Liliana Reina Usuga, Wilson Adarme Jaimes, Oscar Eduardo Suarez

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Coordinated supply chain represents major challenges for the different actors involved in it, because each agent responds to individual interests. The paper presents a framework with the reviewed literature regarding the system's decision structure and nature of demand. Later, it characterizes an agri food supply chain in the Central Region of Colombia, it responds to a decentralized distribution system and a stochastic demand. Finally, the paper recommends coordinating the chain based on shared information, and mechanisms for each agent, as VMI (vendor-managed inventory) strategy for farmer-buyer relationship, information system for farmers and contracts for transportation service providers.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chain, Coordination mechanisms, Decentralized distribution system, Supply chain coordination.

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Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

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Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.

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