Search results for: Combined cycle.

Authors: Younis R. Elhaddad

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Combinatorial optimization problems arise in many scientific and practical applications. Therefore many researchers try to find or improve different methods to solve these problems with high quality results and in less time. Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Simulated Annealing (SA) have been used to solve optimization problems. Both GA and SA search a solution space throughout a sequence of iterative states. However, there are also significant differences between them. The GA mechanism is parallel on a set of solutions and exchanges information using the crossover operation. SA works on a single solution at a time. In this work SA and GA are combined using new technique in order to overcome the disadvantages' of both algorithms.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Optimization problems, Simulated Annealing, Traveling Salesman Problem

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Authors: Tarek Fatouh, Chehab Elbelehy, Alaa Abdelsalam, Eman Elakkad, Alaa Abdelshafie

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This paper aims to explore the possibility of time compression in Engineer to Order production networks. A case study research method is used in a Norwegian shipbuilding project by implementing a value stream mapping lean tool with total cycle time as a unit of analysis. The analysis resulted in demonstrating the time deviations for the planned tasks in one of the processes in the shipbuilding project. So, authors developed a future state map by removing time wastes from value stream process.

Keywords: Engineer to order, total cycle time, value stream mapping, shipbuilding.

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: B. A. Q. Santos, S. K. O. Ntwampe, G. Muchatibaya

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In this study, the designed dual stage membrane bioreactor (MBR) system was conceptualized for the treatment of cyanide and heavy metals in electroplating wastewater. The design consisted of a primary treatment stage to reduce the impact of fluctuations and the secondary treatment stage to remove the residual cyanide and heavy metal contaminants in the wastewater under alkaline pH conditions. The primary treatment stage contained hydrolyzed Citrus sinensis (C. sinensis) pomace and the secondary treatment stage contained active Aspergillus awamori (A. awamori) biomass, supplemented solely with C. sinensis pomace extract from the hydrolysis process. An average of 76.37%, 95.37%, 93.26 and 94.76% and 99.55%, 99.91%, 99.92% and 99.92% degradation efficiency for total cyanide (T-CN), including the sorption of nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) were observed after the first and second treatment stages, respectively. Furthermore, cyanide conversion by-products degradation was 99.81% and 99.75 for both formate (CHOO-) and ammonium (NH4 +) after the second treatment stage. After the first, second and third regeneration cycles of the C. sinensis pomace in the first treatment stage, Ni, Zn and Cu removal achieved was 99.13%, 99.12% and 99.04% (first regeneration cycle), 98.94%, 98.92% and 98.41% (second regeneration cycle) and 98.46 %, 98.44% and 97.91% (third regeneration cycle), respectively. There was relatively insignificant standard deviation detected in all the measured parameters in the system which indicated reproducibility of the remediation efficiency in this continuous system.

Keywords: Aspergillus awamori, Citrus sinensis pomace, electroplating wastewater remediation, membrane bioreactor.

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Authors: B. Engel, Sara Salman Hassan Al-Maeeni

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Human consumption of the Earth's resources increases the need for a sustainable development as an important ecological, social, and economic theme. Re-engineering of machine tools, in terms of design and failure analysis, is defined as steps performed on an obsolete machine to return it to a new machine with the warranty that matches the customer requirement. To understand the future fatigue behavior of the used machine components, it is important to investigate the possible causes of machine parts failure through design, surface, and material inspections. In this study, the failure modes of the shaft of the rotary draw bending machine are inspected. Furthermore, stress and deflection analysis of the shaft subjected to combined torsion and bending loads are carried out by an analytical method and compared with a finite element analysis method. The theoretical fatigue strength, correction factors, and fatigue life sustained by the shaft before damaged are estimated by creating a stress-cycle (S-N) diagram. In conclusion, it is seen that the shaft can work in the second life, but it needs some surface treatments to increase the reliability and fatigue life.

Keywords: Failure analysis, fatigue life, FEM analysis, shaft, stress analysis.

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Authors: Tri Prasetyaningrum, Suyoto

Abstract:

In this paper, we will be present Guidance and Councelling (GC) class action research. The research was done because a fact that some students are still learning ways such as in elementary school. The research objective is to enhance the value of “academic performance report" grade by using ICT as GC Learning Guidance services. The research method was carried out with two cycles. First cycle is applying Learning Guidance services indirectly and not programmed. Second cycle into two implementing Learning Guidance services indirectly, programmed and using ICTs primarily mobile phones and computer media applications i.e. “m-NingBK©: Learning Guidance" and “screen saver: Learning Guidance". A research subject is a class VII student who has the lowest value of “academic performance report". The result is by using an indirect GC services with ICT there were significant changes.

Keywords: ICT, Learning Guidance, action research and Guidance and Councelling

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Authors: O. Adjoul, A. Feugier, K. Benfriha, A. Aoussat

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In general, issues related to design and maintenance are considered in an independent manner. However, the decisions made in these two sets influence each other. The design for maintenance is considered an opportunity to optimize the life cycle cost of a product, particularly in the nuclear or aeronautical field, where maintenance expenses represent more than 60% of life cycle costs. The design of large-scale systems starts with product architecture, a choice of components in terms of cost, reliability, weight and other attributes, corresponding to the specifications. On the other hand, the design must take into account maintenance by improving, in particular, real-time monitoring of equipment through the integration of new technologies such as connected sensors and intelligent actuators. We noticed that different approaches used in the Design For Maintenance (DFM) methods are limited to the simultaneous characterization of the reliability and maintainability of a multi-component system. This article proposes a method of DFM that assists designers to propose dynamic maintenance for multi-component industrial systems. The term "dynamic" refers to the ability to integrate available monitoring data to adapt the maintenance decision in real time. The goal is to maximize the availability of the system at a given life cycle cost. This paper presents an approach for simultaneous optimization of the design and maintenance of multi-component systems. Here the design is characterized by four decision variables for each component (reliability level, maintainability level, redundancy level, and level of monitoring data). The maintenance is characterized by two decision variables (the dates of the maintenance stops and the maintenance operations to be performed on the system during these stops). The DFM model helps the designers choose technical solutions for the large-scale industrial products. Large-scale refers to the complex multi-component industrial systems and long life-cycle, such as trains, aircraft, etc. The method is based on a two-level hybrid algorithm for simultaneous optimization of design and maintenance, using genetic algorithms. The first level is to select a design solution for a given system that considers the life cycle cost and the reliability. The second level consists of determining a dynamic and optimal maintenance plan to be deployed for a design solution. This level is based on the Maintenance Free Operating Period (MFOP) concept, which takes into account the decision criteria such as, total reliability, maintenance cost and maintenance time. Depending on the life cycle duration, the desired availability, and the desired business model (sales or rental), this tool provides visibility of overall costs and optimal product architecture.

Keywords: Availability, design for maintenance, DFM, dynamic maintenance, life cycle cost, LCC, maintenance free operating period, MFOP, simultaneous optimization.

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: Rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis.

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Authors: T. D. Kothalawala, A. Gatto, L. Wrobel

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An exploratory computational investigation using RANS & URANS was carried out to understand the aerodynamics around an isolatedsingle rotating wheel with decreasing ground proximity. The wheel was initially modeled in free air conditions, then with decreasing ground proximity and increased yaw angle with rotational speeds. Three speeds of rotation were applied to the wheel so that the effect of different angular velocities can be investigated. In addition to rotation, three different yaw angles were applied to the rotating wheel in order to understand how these two variables combined affect the aerodynamic flow field around the wheel.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, CFD, Ground Proximity, Landing Gear, Wheel, Rotation, Yaw.

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Authors: Xiaochuan Chen, Jianguo Yang, Beizhi Li

Abstract:

Design for cost (DFC) is a method that reduces life cycle cost (LCC) from the angle of designers. Multiple domain features mapping (MDFM) methodology was given in DFC. Using MDFM, we can use design features to estimate the LCC. From the angle of DFC, the design features of family cars were obtained, such as all dimensions, engine power and emission volume. At the conceptual design stage, cars- LCC were estimated using back propagation (BP) artificial neural networks (ANN) method and case-based reasoning (CBR). Hamming space was used to measure the similarity among cases in CBR method. Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm and genetic algorithm (GA) were used in ANN. The differences of LCC estimation model between CBR and artificial neural networks (ANN) were provided. ANN and CBR separately each method has its shortcomings. By combining ANN and CBR improved results accuracy was obtained. Firstly, using ANN selected some design features that affect LCC. Then using LCC estimation results of ANN could raise the accuracy of LCC estimation in CBR method. Thirdly, using ANN estimate LCC errors and correct errors in CBR-s estimation results if the accuracy is not enough accurate. Finally, economically family cars and sport utility vehicle (SUV) was given as LCC estimation cases using this hybrid approach combining ANN and CBR.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, life cycle cost (LCC), artificialneural networks (ANN), family cars

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Jan Cernohorsky

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This article aims to evaluate the impact of loans provided within the Czech banking sector on the growth of the Czech economy. The article is based on research of current scientific findings in respect to bank loans and economic development. The paper is based on data taken from the Czech Statistical Office on the development of the gross domestic product and data from the Czech National Bank on the development of loans from the period 2004-2015. Links between selected variables are tested using Granger causality tests. The results calculated confirm the hypothesis of the impact of the loans on economic growth, with a six-month delay. The results thus correspond to the standard economic findings and results of most previous studies.

Keywords: Bank, business cycle, economic growth, loans.

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Authors: Marinela Mircea

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The development of information and communication technology, the increased use of the internet, as well as the effects of the recession within the last years, have lead to the increased use of cloud computing based solutions, also called on-demand solutions. These solutions offer a large number of benefits to organizations as well as challenges and risks, mainly determined by data visualization in different geographic locations on the internet. As far as the specific risks of cloud environment are concerned, data security is still considered a peak barrier in adopting cloud computing. The present study offers an approach upon ensuring the security of cloud data, oriented towards the whole data life cycle. The final part of the study focuses on the assessment of data security in the cloud, this representing the bases in determining the potential losses and the premise for subsequent improvements and continuous learning.

Keywords: cloud computing, data life cycle, data security, security assessment.

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Authors: Shan Ding, Lijia Zhang, Hongming Xu

Abstract:

this paper presents a novel scheme which is capable of reducing the error rate and improves the transmission performance in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems. A case study of image transmission is applied to prove the efficient of scheme. The linear dispersion structure is employed to accommodate the cooperative wireless communication network in the dynamic topology of structure, as well as to achieve higher throughput than conventional space–time codes based on orthogonal designs. The LDPC encoder without girth-4 and the STBC encoder with guard intervals are respectively introduced. The experiment results show that the combined coder of LDPC-STBC with guard intervals can be the good error correcting coders and BER performance in the asynchronous cooperative communication. In the case study of image transmission, the results show that in the transmission process, the image quality which is obtained by applied combined scheme is much better than it which is not applied the scheme in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems.

Keywords: Cooperative MIMO, image transmission, lineardispersion codes, Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC)

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Authors: C. Sinescu, M. Negrutiu, M. Romînu, C. Haiduc, E. Petrescu, M. Leretter, A.G. Podoleanu

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Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) combined with the Confocal Microscopy, as a noninvasive method, permits the determinations of materials defects in the ceramic layers depth. For this study 256 anterior and posterior metal and integral ceramic fixed partial dentures were used, made with Empress (Ivoclar), Wollceram and CAD/CAM (Wieland) technology. For each investigate area 350 slices were obtain and a 3D reconstruction was perform from each stuck. The Optical Coherent Tomography, as a noninvasive method, can be used as a control technique in integral ceramic technology, before placing those fixed partial dentures in the oral cavity. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capability of En face Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) combined with a fluorescent method in detection and analysis of possible material defects in metalceramic and integral ceramic fixed partial dentures. As a conclusion, it is important to have a non invasive method to investigate fixed partial prostheses before their insertion in the oral cavity in order to satisfy the high stress requirements and the esthetic function.

Keywords: Ceramic Fixed Partial Dentures, Material Defects, En face Optical Coherence Tomography, Fluorescence.

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Authors: Varsha Shah, Patel Pritesh, Patel Sagar, PrasantaKundu, RanjanMaheshwari

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Performance of vehicle depends on driving patterns and vehicle drive train configuration. Driving patterns depends on traffic condition, road condition and driver behavior. HEV design is carried out under certain constrain like vehicle operating range, acceleration, decelerations, maximum speed and road grades which are directly related to the driving patterns. Therefore the detailed study on HEV performance over a different drive cycle is required for selection and sizing of HEV components. A simple hardware is design to measured velocity v/s time profile of the vehicle by operating vehicle on Indian roads under real traffic conditions. To size the HEV components, a detailed dynamic model of the vehicle is developed considering the effect of inertia of rotating components like wheels, drive chain, engine and electric motor. Using vehicle model and different Indian drive cycles data, total tractive power demanded by vehicle and power supplied by individual components has been calculated.Using above information selection and estimation of component sizing for HEV is carried out so that HEV performs efficiently under hostile driving condition. Complete analysis is carried out in LABVIEW.

Keywords: BLDC motor, Driving cycle, LABVIEW Ultracapacitors, Vehicle Dynamics,

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Authors: Y. Hoffner, Y. Rusho, S. Rubach, S. Abargil

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This paper presents CommonSense, a platform that provides researchers with the infrastructure and tools that enable the efficient and smooth creation, execution and processing of multiple participant experiments taking place outside the laboratory environment. The platform provides the infrastructure and tools to accompany the researchers throughout the life cycle of an experiment – from its inception, through its execution, to its processing and termination. The approach of our platform is based on providing a comprehensive solution, which puts emphasis on the support for the entire life-cycle of an experiment, starting from its definition, the setting up and the configuration of the platform, through the management of the experiment itself and its post processing. Some of the components that support those processes are constructed and configured automatically from the experiment definition.

Keywords: Mobile applications, mobile experiments, web experiments, software system architecture.

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Authors: V. C. Sathish Gandhi, R. Kumaravelan, S. Ramesh, M. Venkatesan, M. Siva Rama Krishnan

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Motor cycle accidents have been increased for the past two decades. Helmet can protect the vehicle riders from severe injuries during road accident to certain extent. To design a functional helmet, it is important to analyze the shape of the helmet and visor portion. Hence, an attempt has been made for design and analysis of new helmet by considering the drag pressure and anti-glare visor. The drag pressure resistance presses the helmet against the neck portion of the rider. The shape of an aerodynamic helmet can be able to reduce the drag pressure. The spherical shape and a new aerodynamic shape helmets are designed with help of Pro-E software and the drag pressures were calculated and comparison has been made on the basis of drag pressure.

Keywords: Helmet, drag pressure, aero-dynamic, refractive index, Pro-E.

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Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

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ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.

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Authors: Mir Shahriar Emami

Abstract:

Although it is fully impossible to ensure that a software system is quite secure, developing an acceptable secure software system in a convenient platform is not unreachable. In this paper, we attempt to analyze software development life cycle (SDLC) models from the hardware systems and circuits point of view. To date, the SDLC models pay merely attention to the software security from the software perspectives. In this paper, we present new features for SDLC stages to emphasize the role of systems and circuits in developing secure software system through the software development stages, the point that has not been considered previously in the SDLC models.

Keywords: Systems and circuits security, software security, software process engineering, SDLC, SSDLC.

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Authors: Bipul Krishna Saha, Basab Chakraborty, Ashish Alex Sam, Parthasarathi Ghosh

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The demand for energy is cumulatively increasing with time.  Since the availability of conventional energy resources is dying out gradually, significant interest is being laid on searching for alternate energy resources and minimizing the wastage of energy in various fields.  In such perspective, low-grade waste heat from several industrial sources can be reused to generate electricity. The present work is to further the adoption of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) technology in Indian industrial sector.  The present paper focuses on extending the previously reported idea to the next level through a comparative review with three different working fluids using practical data from an Indian industrial plant. For comprehensive study in the simulation platform of Aspen Hysys^®, v8.6, the waste heat data has been collected from a current coke oven gas plant in India.  A parametric analysis of non-regenerative ORC and regenerative ORC is executed using the working fluids R-123, R-11 and R-21 for subcritical ORC system.  The primary goal is to determine the optimal working fluid considering various system parameters like turbine work output, obtained system efficiency, irreversibility rate and second law efficiency under applied multiple heat source temperature (160 °C- 180 °C).  Selection of the turbo-expanders is one of the most crucial tasks for low-temperature applications in ORC system. The present work is an attempt to make suitable recommendation for the appropriate configuration of the turbine. In a nutshell, this study justifies the proficiency of integrating the ORC technology in Indian perspective and also finds the appropriate parameter of all components integrated in ORC system for building up an ORC prototype.

Keywords: Organic rankine cycle, regenerative organic rankine cycle, waste heat recovery, Indian industry.

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Authors: Sandor Levai, Valentin Juhasz, Miklos Gasz

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Rising damp is an extremely complex phenomenon that is of great practical interest to the field of building conservation due to the irreversible damages it can make to old and historic structures. The electrical effects occurring in damp masonry have been scarcely researched and are a largely unknown aspect of rising damp. Present paper describes the typical electrical patterns occurring in porous brickwork during a wetting and drying cycle. It has been found that in contrast with dry masonry, where electrical phenomena are virtually non-existent, damp masonry exhibits a wide array of electrical effects. Long-term real-time measurements performed in the lab on small-scale brick structures, using an array of embedded micro-sensors, revealed significant voltage, current, capacitance and resistance variations which can be linked to the movement of moisture inside porous materials. The same measurements performed on actual old buildings revealed a similar behaviour, the electrical effects being more significant in areas of the brickwork affected by rising damp. Understanding these electrical phenomena contributes to a better understanding of the driving mechanisms of rising damp, potentially opening new avenues of dealing with it in a less invasive manner.

Keywords: Brick masonry, electrical phenomena in damp brickwork, porous building materials, rising damp, spontaneous electrical potential, wetting-drying cycle.

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Authors: Yongyoon Suh, Chulhyun Kim, Moon-soo Kim

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As the trend of manufacturing is being dominated depending on services, products and processes are more and more related with sophisticated services. Thus, this research starts with the discussion about integration of the product, process, and service in the innovation process. In particular, this paper sets out some foundations for a theory of service innovation in the field of manufacturing, and proposes the dynamic model of service innovation related to product and process. Two dynamic models of service innovation are suggested to investigate major tendencies and dynamic variations during the innovation cycle: co-innovation and sequential innovation. To structure dynamic models of product, process, and service innovation, the innovation stages in which two models are mainly achieved are identified. The research would encourage manufacturers to formulate strategy and planning for service development with product and process.

Keywords: dynamic model, service innovation, service innovation models, innovation cycle, manufacturing industry.

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Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

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This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: Boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, prediction, unity power factor.

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Authors: F. Isada, Y. Isada

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In this research, the diffusion of innovation regarding smartphone usage is analysed through a consumer behaviour theory. This research aims to determine whether a pattern surrounding the diffusion of innovation exists. As a methodology, an empirical study of the switch from a conventional cell phone to a smartphone was performed. Specifically, a questionnaire survey was completed by general consumers, and the situational and behavioural characteristics of switching from a cell phone to a smartphone were analysed. In conclusion, we found that the speed of the diffusion of innovation, the consumer behaviour characteristics, and the utilities of the product vary according to the stage of the product life cycle.

Keywords: Diffusion of innovation, consumer behaviour, product life cycle, smartphone, empirical study, questionnaire survey.

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Authors: Thamo Sutharssan, Diogo Montalvao, Yong Chen, Wen-Chung Wang, Claudia Pisac

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A combined heat and power (CHP) system is an efficient and clean way to generate power (electricity). Heat produced by the CHP system can be used for water and space heating. The CHP system which uses hydrogen as fuel produces zero carbon emission. Its’ efficiency can reach more than 80% whereas that of a traditional power station can only reach up to 50% because much of the thermal energy is wasted. The other advantages of CHP systems include that they can decentralize energy generation, improve energy security and sustainability, and significantly reduce the energy cost to the users. This paper presents the economic benefits of using a CHP system in the domestic environment. For this analysis, natural gas is considered as potential fuel as the hydrogen fuel cell based CHP systems are rarely used. UK government incentives for CHP systems are also considered as the added benefit. Results show that CHP requires a significant initial investment in returns it can reduce the annual energy bill significantly. Results show that an investment may be paid back in 7 years. After the back period, CHP can run for about 3 years as most of the CHP manufacturers provide 10 year warranty.

Keywords: Combined Heat and Power, Clean Energy, Hydrogen Fuel Cell, Economic Analysis of CHP, Zero Emission.

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Authors: Diah Tri Widayati, Aris Junaidi, Kresno Suharto, Amelia Oktaviani, Wahyuningsih

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The estrus female Etawah cross bred goats were synchronized estrus by controlled internal drug release (CIDR) implants for 10 days combined with PGF2α injection, and continued by artificial insemination (AI) within the hours of 24 period. Vaginal epithelium was taken to determine estrus cycle of the goats without estrus synchronization. The estrus responds (the puffy of vulva and vaginal pH) and percentage of pregnancy were investigated. The data were analyzed descriptively and Independent Sample T-Test. The results showed that the puffy of vulva and vaginal pH were significantly different in synchronized estrus goats and control goats (2.18 ± 0.33 cm vs. 1.20 ± 0.16 cm and 8.55 ± 0.63 vs. 8.22 ± 0.22). Percentage of pregnancy was higher in synchronized estrus goats (73.33%) than in control (53.3%). Estrus synchronization by using CIDR implants and PGF2, continued by AI was effective to improve reproduction performance of Etawah cross bred goats.

Keywords: Artificial insemination, Estrus synchronization, Etawah cross bred goat, Reproduction performance.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Yingjun Ruan, Qingrong Liu, Weiguo Zhou, Toshiyuki Watanabe

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This paper has examined the energy consumption characteristics in six different buildings including apartments, offices, commercial buildings, hospitals, hotels and educational facilities. Then 5-hectare (50000m2) development site for respective building-s type has been assumed as case study to evaluate the introduction effect of Combined Heat and Power (CHP). All kinds of CHP systems with different distributed generation technologies including Gas Turbine (GT), Gas Engine (GE), Diesel Engine (DE), Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) and Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell (PEFC), have been simulated by using HEATMAP, CHP system analysis software. And their primary energy utilization efficiency, energy saving ratio and CO2 reduction ratio have evaluated and compared respectively. The results can be summarized as follows: Various buildings have their special heat to power ratio characteristics. Matching the heat to power ratio demanded from an individual building with that supplied from a CHP system is very important. It is necessary to select a reasonable distributed generation technologies according to the load characteristics of various buildings. Distributed generation technologies with high energy generating efficiency and low heat to power ratio, like SOFC and PEFC is more reasonable selection for Building Combined Heat and Power (BCHP). CHP system is an attractive option for hotels, hospitals and apartments in Japan. The users can achieve high energy saving and environmental benefit by introducing a CHP systems. In others buildings, especially like commercial buildings and offices, the introduction of CHP system is unreasonable.

Keywords: Combined heat and power, distributed generation technologies, heat-tao-power ratio, energy saving ratio, CO2 reduction ratio

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Authors: Hossein Riazoshams, Midi Habshah, Jr., Mohamad Bakri Adam

Abstract:

The detection of outliers is very essential because of their responsibility for producing huge interpretative problem in linear as well as in nonlinear regression analysis. Much work has been accomplished on the identification of outlier in linear regression, but not in nonlinear regression. In this article we propose several outlier detection techniques for nonlinear regression. The main idea is to use the linear approximation of a nonlinear model and consider the gradient as the design matrix. Subsequently, the detection techniques are formulated. Six detection measures are developed that combined with three estimation techniques such as the Least-Squares, M and MM-estimators. The study shows that among the six measures, only the studentized residual and Cook Distance which combined with the MM estimator, consistently capable of identifying the correct outliers.

Keywords: Nonlinear Regression, outliers, Gradient, LeastSquare, M-estimate, MM-estimate.

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Authors: Hossein Lotfizadeh, André McDonald, Amit Kumar

Abstract:

Renewable energy resources, which can supplement space and water heating for residential buildings, can have a noticeable impact on natural gas consumption and air pollution. This study considers a technical analysis of a combined solar water heating system with evacuated tube solar collectors for different solar coverage, ranging from 20% to 100% of the total roof area of a typical residential building located in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The alternative heating systems were conventional (non-condensing) and condensing tankless water heaters and condensing boilers that were coupled to solar water heating systems. The performance of the alternative heating systems was compared to a traditional heating system, consisting of a conventional boiler, applied to houses of various gross floor areas. A comparison among the annual natural gas consumption, carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation, and emissions for the various house sizes indicated that the combined solar heating system can reduce the natural gas consumption and CO₂ emissions, and increase CO₂ mitigation for all the systems that were studied. The results suggest that solar water heating systems are potentially beneficial for residential heating system applications in terms of energy savings and CO₂ mitigation.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, CO2 mitigation, natural gas consumption, solar water heating system, tankless water heater.

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