Search results for: Material Point Method

Authors: Watchara Songserm, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

Abstract:

This paper presents a genetic algorithm based permutation and non-permutation scheduling heuristics (GAPNP) to solve a multi-stage finite capacity material requirement planning (FCMRP) problem in automotive assembly flow shop with unrelated parallel machines. In the algorithm, the sequences of orders are iteratively improved by the GA characteristics, whereas the required operations are scheduled based on the presented permutation and non-permutation heuristics. Finally, a linear programming is applied to minimize the total cost. The presented GAPNP algorithm is evaluated by using real datasets from automotive companies. The required parameters for GAPNP are intently tuned to obtain a common parameter setting for all case studies. The results show that GAPNP significantly outperforms the benchmark algorithm about 30% on average.

Keywords: Finite capacity MRP, genetic algorithm, linear programming, flow shop, unrelated parallel machines, application in industries.

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Authors: M. Goerke, J. Gehrmann

Abstract:

Caused by shorter product life cycles and higher product variety the importance of production ramp ups is increasing. Even though companies are aware of that fact, up to 40% of the ramp up projects still miss technical and economical requirements. The success of a ramp up depends on the planning of human factors, organizational aspects and technological solutions. Since only partly considered in scientific literature, this paper lays its focus on the human factor during production ramp up. There are only incoherent methods which address the problems in this area. A systematic and holistic method to improve the capabilities of the employees during ramp up is missing. The Harada Method is a relatively young approach for developing highly-skilled workers. It consists of different worksheets which help employees to set guidelines and reach overall objectives. This approach is going to be transferred into a tool for ramp up management.

Keywords: Employee Development, Harada, Production Ramp Up.

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Authors: Olfa.Ben Ahmed, Mahmoud. Mejdoub, Chokri. Ben Amar

Abstract:

Recognizing human action from videos is an active field of research in computer vision and pattern recognition. Human activity recognition has many potential applications such as video surveillance, human machine interaction, sport videos retrieval and robot navigation. Actually, local descriptors and bag of visuals words models achieve state-of-the-art performance for human action recognition. The main challenge in features description is how to represent efficiently the local motion information. Most of the previous works focus on the extension of 2D local descriptors on 3D ones to describe local information around every interest point. In this paper, we propose a new spatio-temporal descriptor based on a spacetime description of moving points. Our description is focused on an Accordion representation of video which is well-suited to recognize human action from 2D local descriptors without the need to 3D extensions. We use the bag of words approach to represent videos. We quantify 2D local descriptor describing both temporal and spatial features with a good compromise between computational complexity and action recognition rates. We have reached impressive results on publicly available action data set

Keywords: Accordion, Bag of Features, Human action, Motion, Moving point, Space-Time Descriptor, SIFT, Video.

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Authors: Chao Qi, Fuyang Peng, Bo Deng, Xiaoyan Su

Abstract:

In the upgrade process of enterprise information systems, how to deal with and utilize those legacy systems affects the efficiency of construction and development of the new system. We propose an evaluation system, which comprehensively describes the capacity of legacy information systems in five aspects. Then we propose a practical legacy systems evaluation method. Base on the evaluation result, we can determine the current state of legacy system which was evaluated.

Keywords: Legacy Information Systems, Evaluation IndexSystem, Evaluation Method, Evaluation Level

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Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

Abstract:

The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: Bottom elevation, multi-view stereo, river, structure-from-motion.

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Authors: Ming-Chu Yin, Ping-An Du

Abstract:

The shielding ability of a shielding cavity with an aperture will be greatly degraded at resonance frequencies, and the resonance modes and frequencies are affected by aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling, which are closely related with aperture sizes. The equivalent circuit method and numerical method of Transmission Line Matrix (TLM) are used to analyze the effects of aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling on the electromagnetic resonances of a cavity with an aperture in this paper. Both analytical and numerical results show that the resonance modes of a shielding cavity with an aperture consist of cavity resonance modes and aperture resonance modes, and the resonance frequencies will shift with the change of the aperture sizes because of the aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling. Variation rules of electromagnetic resonances with aperture sizes for a cavity with an aperture are given, which will be useful for design of shielding cavities.

Keywords: Aperture-cavity coupling, equivalent circuit method, resonances, shielding equipment.

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Authors: Anna H. Tadevosyan, Stepan K. Mayrapetyan, Michael P. Schellenberg, Laura M. Ghalachyan, Albert H. Hovsepyan, Khachatur S. Mayrapetyan

Abstract:

The possibility of radionuclides-related contamination of lands at agricultural holdings defines the necessity to apply special protective measures in plant growing. The aim of researches is to elucidate the influence of polymers applying on biological migration of man-made anthropogenic radionuclides 90Sr and 137Cs in the system water - soil – plant. The tests are being carried out under field conditions with and without application of polymers in root-inhabited media in more radioecological tension zone (with the radius of 7 km from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant). The polymers on the base of K+, Caµ, KµCaµ ions were tested. Productivity of pepper depending on the presence and type of polymer material, content of artificial radionuclides in waters, soil and plant material has been determined. The character of different polymers influence on the artificial radionuclides migration and accumulation in the system water-soil-plant and accumulation in the plants has been cleared up.

Keywords: accumulation of artificial radionuclides, pepper, polymer, water-soil-plant system

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Authors: Md Rashadul Islam, Mesbah U. Ahmed, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

Abstract:

This study evaluates the back calculation of stiffness of a pavement section on Interstate 40 (I-40)in New Mexico through numerical analysis. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test has been conducted on a section on I-40. Layer stiffness of the pavement has been backcalculated by a backcalculation software, ELMOD, using the FWD test data. Commercial finite element software, ABAQUS, has been used to develop the Finite Element Model (FEM) of this pavement section. Geometry and layer thickness are collected from field coring. Input parameters i.e. stiffnesses of different layers of the pavement are used as the backcalculated ones. Resulting surface deflections at different radial distances from the FEM analysis are compared with field FWD deflection values. It shows close agreement between the FEM and FWD outputs. Therefore, the FWD test method can be considered to be a reliable test procedure for evaluating the in situ stiffness of pavement material.

Keywords: Falling weight deflectometer test, Finite element model, Flexible pavement, moduli, surface deflection.

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Authors: C. Juntarasaid, T. Pulngern, S. Chucheepsakul

Abstract:

A formulation of postbuckling analysis of end supported rods under self-weight has been presented by the variational method. The variational formulation involving the strain energy due to bending and the potential energy of the self-weight, are expressed in terms of the intrinsic coordinates. The variational formulation is accomplished by introducing the Lagrange multiplier technique to impose the boundary conditions. The finite element method is used to derive a system of nonlinear equations resulting from the stationary of the total potential energy and then Newton-Raphson iterative procedure is applied to solve this system of equations. The numerical results demonstrate the postbluckled configurations of end supported rods under self-weight. This finite element method based on variational formulation expressed in term of intrinsic coordinate is highly recommended for postbuckling analysis of end-supported rods under self-weight.

Keywords: Variational method, postbuckling, finite element method, intrinsic coordinate.

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Authors: O. P. Rishi, Rekha Govil, Madhavi Sinha

Abstract:

Online learning with Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) is becoming very popular where the system models the student-s learning behavior and presents to the student the learning material (content, questions-answers, assignments) accordingly. In today-s distributed computing environment, the tutoring system can take advantage of networking to utilize the model for a student for students from other similar groups. In the present paper we present a methodology where using Case Based Reasoning (CBR), ITS provides student modeling for online learning in a distributed environment with the help of agents. The paper describes the approach, the architecture, and the agent characteristics for such system. This concept can be deployed to develop ITS where the tutor can author and the students can learn locally whereas the ITS can model the students- learning globally in a distributed environment. The advantage of such an approach is that both the learning material (domain knowledge) and student model can be globally distributed thus enhancing the efficiency of ITS with reducing the bandwidth requirement and complexity of the system.

Keywords: CBR, ITS, student modeling, distributed system, intelligent agent.

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Authors: Samar Krimi, Kaïs Ouni, Noureddine Ellouze

Abstract:

The method described in this paper deals with the problems of T-wave detection in an ECG. Determining the position of a T-wave is complicated due to the low amplitude, the ambiguous and changing form of the complex. A wavelet transform approach handles these complications therefore a method based on this concept was developed. In this way we developed a detection method that is able to detect T-waves with a sensitivity of 93% and a correct-detection ratio of 93% even with a serious amount of baseline drift and noise.

Keywords: ECG, Modulus Maxima Wavelet Transform, Performance, T-wave detection

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Authors: Rashad Al Araj, Adil K. Tamimi

Abstract:

Concrete, despite being one of the most produced materials in the world, still has weaknesses and drawbacks. Significant concern of the cementitious materials in structural applications is their quasi-brittle behavior, which causes the material to crack and lose its durability. One of the very recently proposed mitigations for this problem is the implementation of nanotechnology in the concrete mix by adding carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to it. CNTs can enhance the critical mechanical properties of concrete as a structural material. Thus, this paper demonstrates a state-of-the-art review of reinforcing concrete with CNTs, emphasizing on the structural performance. It also goes over the properties of CNTs alone, the present methods and costs associated with producing them, the possible special applications of concretes reinforced with CNTs, the key challenges and drawbacks that this new technology still encounters, and the most reliable practices and methodologies to produce CNT-reinforced concrete in the lab. This work has shown that the addition of CNTs to the concrete mix in percentages as low as 0.25% weight of cement could increase the flexural strength and toughness of concrete by more than 45% and 25%, respectively, and enhance other durability-related properties, given that an effective dispersion of CNTs in the cementitious mix is achieved. Since nano reinforcement for cementitious materials is a new technology, many challenges have to be tackled before it becomes practiced at the mass level.

Keywords: Sustainability, carbon nanotube, microsilica, concrete.

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Authors: Guoliang Fan, Aiping Li, Nan Xie, Liyun Xu, Xuemei Liu

Abstract:

Mass customization production increases the difficulty of the production line layout planning. The material distribution process for variety of parts is very complex, which greatly increases the cost of material handling and logistics. In response to this problem, this paper presents an approach of production line layout planning based on complexity measurement. Firstly, by analyzing the influencing factors of equipment layout, the complexity model of production line is established by using information entropy theory. Then, the cost of the part logistics is derived considering different variety of parts. Furthermore, the function of optimization including two objectives of the lowest cost, and the least configuration complexity is built. Finally, the validity of the function is verified in a case study. The results show that the proposed approach may find the layout scheme with the lowest logistics cost and the least complexity. Optimized production line layout planning can effectively improve production efficiency and equipment utilization with lowest cost and complexity.

Keywords: Production line, layout planning, complexity measurement, optimization, mass customization.

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Authors: Sana Testouri, Karim Saadaoui, Mohamed Benrejeb

Abstract:

This paper presents a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method for determining the optimal parameters of a first-order controller for TCP/AQM system. The model TCP/AQM is described by a second-order system with time delay. First, the analytical approach, based on the D-decomposition method and Lemma of Kharitonov, is used to determine the stabilizing regions of a firstorder controller. Second, the optimal parameters of the controller are obtained by the PSO algorithm. Finally, the proposed method is implemented in the Network Simulator NS-2 and compared with the PI controller.

Keywords: AQM, first-order controller, time delay, stability, PSO.

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Authors: Z. Veselý, M. Honner, J. Mach

Abstract:

The aim of the performed work is to establish the 2D and 3D model of direct unsteady task of sample heat treatment by moving source employing computer model on the basis of finite element method. Complex boundary condition on heat loaded sample surface is the essential feature of the task. Computer model describes heat treatment of the sample during heat source movement over the sample surface. It is started from 2D task of sample cross section as a basic model. Possibilities of extension from 2D to 3D task are discussed. The effect of the addition of third model dimension on temperature distribution in the sample is showed. Comparison of various model parameters on the sample temperatures is observed. Influence of heat source motion on the depth of material heat treatment is shown for several velocities of the movement. Presented computer model is prepared for the utilization in laser treatment of machine parts.

Keywords: Computer simulation, unsteady model, heat treatment, complex boundary condition, moving heat source.

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Authors: Amir Hossein Daei Sorkhabi, Bita Khazini

Abstract:

In this paper the intelligent control of full automatic car wash using a programmable logic controller (PLC) has been investigated and designed to do all steps of carwashing. The Intelligent control of full automatic carwash has the ability to identify and profile the geometrical dimensions of the vehicle chassis. Vehicle dimension identification is an important point in this control system to adjust the washing brushes position and time duration. The study also tries to design a control set for simulating and building the automatic carwash. The main purpose of the simulation is to develop criteria for designing and building this type of carwash in actual size to overcome challenges of automation. The results of this research indicate that the proposed method in process control not only increases productivity, speed, accuracy and safety but also reduce the time and cost of washing based on dynamic model of the vehicle. A laboratory prototype based on an advanced intelligent control has been built to study the validity of the design and simulation which it’s appropriate performance confirms the validity of this study.

Keywords: Automatic Carwash, Dimension, PLC.

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Authors: Youcef Bekakra, Djilani Ben attous

Abstract:

This paper presents the study of a variable speed wind energy conversion system based on a Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based on a sliding mode control applied to achieve control of active and reactive powers exchanged between the stator of the DFIG and the grid to ensure a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) of a wind energy conversion system. The proposed control algorithm is applied to a DFIG whose stator is directly connected to the grid and the rotor is connected to the PWM converter. To extract a maximum of power, the rotor side converter is controlled by using a stator flux-oriented strategy. The created decoupling control between active and reactive stator power allows keeping the power factor close to unity. Simulation results show that the wind turbine can operate at its optimum energy for a wide range of wind speed.

Keywords: Doubly fed induction generator, wind energy, wind turbine, sliding mode control, maximum power point tracking (MPPT).

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Authors: M.R. Isvandzibaei, M.R. Alinaghizadeh, A.H. Zaman

Abstract:

In the present work, study of the vibration of thin cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The analysis is carried out using Hamilton's principle. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of clamped-free boundary conditions

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle, clamped supported.

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Authors: M. R.Isvandzibaei, A.Jahani

Abstract:

In the present work, study of the vibration of thin cylindrical shells made of a functionally gradient material (FGM) composed of stainless steel and nickel is presented. Material properties are graded in the thickness direction of the shell according to volume fraction power law distribution. The objective is to study the natural frequencies, the influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of boundary conditions on the natural frequencies of the FG cylindrical shell. The study is carried out using third order shear deformation shell theory. The analysis is carried out using Hamilton's principle. The governing equations of motion of FG cylindrical shells are derived based on shear deformation theory. Results are presented on the frequency characteristics, influence of constituent volume fractions and the effects of free-free and clamped-clamped boundary conditions.

Keywords: Vibration, FGM, cylindrical shell, Hamilton's principle.

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Authors: Ilia Marchevsky, Victoriya Moreva

Abstract:

The problem of incompressible steady flow simulation around an airfoil is discussed. For some simplest airfoils (circular, elliptical, Zhukovsky airfoils) the exact solution is known from complex analysis. It allows to compute the intensity of vortex layer which simulates the airfoil. Some modifications of the vortex element method are proposed and test computations are carried out. It-s shown that the these approaches are much more effective in comparison with the classical numerical scheme.

Keywords: Vortex element method, vortex layer, integral equation, ill-conditioned matrix.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A new mathematical model for calculating the temperature field of the profile part of the cooled blades of gas turbines is developed. The theoretical substantiation of the method is based on the application of the method of potential theory (the method of boundary integral equations). The effectiveness of the implementation of the developed mathematical model is confirmed on the basis of a computational experiment.

Keywords: Modeling of temperature fields, gas turbine blades, integral methods, cooled blades, gas turbines.

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Authors: Supakit Rooppakhun, Nattapon Chantarapanich, Bancha Chernchujit, Banchong Mahaisavariya, Sedthawatt Sucharitpwatskul, Kriskrai Sitthiseripratip

Abstract:

This study aimed to present the mechanical performance evaluation of the dynamic hip screw (DHS) for trochanteric fracture by means of finite element method. The analyses were performed based on stainless steel and titanium implant material definitions at various stages of bone healing and including implant removal. The assessment of the mechanical performance used two parameters, von Mises stress to evaluate the strength of bone and implant and elastic strain to evaluate fracture stability. The results show several critical aspects of dynamic hip screw for trochanteric fracture stabilization. In the initial stage of bone healing process, partial weight bearing should be applied to avoid the implant failure. In the late stage of bone healing, stainless steel implant should be removed.

Keywords: Trochanteric fracture, Dynamic hip screw (DHS), Finite element analysis.

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Authors: Bhaveshkumar P. Patel, J. M. Prajapati

Abstract:

Excavators are high power machines used in the mining, agricultural and construction industry whose principal functions are digging (material removing), ground leveling and material transport operations. During the digging task there are certain unknown forces exerted by the bucket on the soil and the digging operation is repetitive in nature. Automation of the digging task can be performed by an automatically controlled excavator system, which is not only control the forces but also follow the planned digging trajectories. To develop such a controller for automated excavation, it is required to develop a dynamic model to describe the behavior of the control system during digging operation and motion of excavator with time. The presented work described a dynamic model needed for controller design and which is derived by applying Lagrange-Euler approach. The developed dynamic model is intended for further development of an automated excavation control system for light duty construction work and can be applied for heavy duty or all types of backhoe excavators.

Keywords: Backhoe excavator, controller, digging, excavation, trajectory.

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Authors: Sami Hidouri, Taoufik Aguili

Abstract:

We consider fast and accurate solutions of scattering problems by large perfectly conducting objects (PEC) formulated by an optimization of the Method of Auxiliary Sources (MAS). We present various techniques used to reduce the total computational cost of the scattering problem. The first technique is based on replacing the object by an array of finite number of small (PEC) object with the same shape. The second solution reduces the problem on considering only the half of the object.These t

Keywords: Method of Auxiliary Sources, Scattering, large object, RCS, computational resources.

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Authors: S. Hellam, Y. Oulahrir, F. El Mounchid, A. Sadiq, S. Mbarki

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method for threedimensional object indexing based on D.A.M.C-S.H.C descriptor (Direct and Analytical Method for Calculating the Spherical Harmonics Coefficients). For this end, we propose a direct calculation of the coefficients of spherical harmonics with perfect precision. The aims of the method are to minimize, the processing time on the 3D objects database and the searching time of similar objects to a request object. Firstly we start by defining the new descriptor using a new division of 3-D object in a sphere. Then we define a new distance which will be tested and prove his efficiency in the search for similar objects in the database in which we have objects with very various and important size.

Keywords: 3D Object indexing, 3D shape descriptor, spherical harmonic, 3D Object similarity.

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Authors: F. Rahmani, F. Razaghian, A. R. Kashaninia

Abstract:

This article proposes a new method for application in communication circuit systems that increase efficiency, PAE, output power and gain in the circuit. The proposed method is based on a combination of switching class-E and class-J and has been termed class-EJ. This method was investigated using both theory and simulation to confirm ∼72% PAE and output power of >39dBm. The combination and design of the proposed power amplifier accrues gain of over 15dB in the 2.9 to 3.5GHz frequency bandwidth. This circuit was designed using MOSFET and high power transistors. The loadand source-pull method achieved the best input and output networks using lumped elements. The proposed technique was investigated for fundamental and second harmonics having desirable amplitudes for the output signal.

Keywords: Power Amplifier (PA), GaN HEMT, Class-J and Class-E, High Efficiency.

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Authors: Bireswar Paul, Amitava Datta

Abstract:

Indoor air environment is a big concern in the last few decades in the developing countries, with increased focus on monitoring the air quality. In this work, an experimental study has been conducted to establish the existence of carbon nanoparticles below the size range of 10 nm in the non-sooting zone of a LPG/air partially premixed flame. Mainly, four optical techniques, UV absorption spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering and TEM have been used to characterize and measure the size of carbon nanoparticles in the sampled materials collected from the inner surface of the flame front. The existence of the carbon nanoparticles in the sampled material has been confirmed with the typical nature of the absorption and fluorescence spectra already reported in the literature. The band gap energy shows that the particles are made up of three to six aromatic rings. The size measurement by DLS technique also shows that the particles below the size range of 10 nm. The results of DLS are also corroborated by the TEM image of the same material. 

Keywords: Indoor air, carbon nanoparticles, LPG, partially premixed flame, optical techniques.

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Authors: Yong F. Li, Yi X. Liu, Xiang M. Wang, Feng H. Wang

Abstract:

Wood as a natural renewable material is vulnerable to degradation by microorganisms and susceptible to change in dimension by water. In order to effectively improve the durability of wood, an active reagent, maleic anhydride (Man) was selected for wood modification. Man was first dissolved into a solvent, and then penetrated into wood porous structure under a vacuum/pressure condition. After a final catalyst-thermal treatment, wood modification was finished. The test results indicate that acetone is a good solvent for transporting Man into wood matrix. SEM observation proved that wood samples treated by Man kept a good cellular structure, indicating a well penetration of Man into wood cell walls. FTIR analysis suggested that Man reacted with hydroxyl groups on wood cell walls by its ring-ether group, resulting in reduction of amount of hydroxyl groups and resultant good dimensional stability as well as fine decay resistance. Consequently, Man modifying wood to improve its durability is an effective method.

Keywords: Wood, porous structure, durability improvement, maleic anhydride

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Manjot Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, the fuzzy linear programming formulation of fuzzy maximal flow problems are proposed and on the basis of the proposed formulation a method is proposed to find the fuzzy optimal solution of fuzzy maximal flow problems. In the proposed method all the parameters are represented by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using the proposed method the fuzzy optimal solution of fuzzy maximal flow problems can be easily obtained. To illustrate the proposed method a numerical example is solved and the obtained results are discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy maximal flow problem, Ranking function, Triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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