Search results for: Daily peak load forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2530

Search results for: Daily peak load forecasting

730 Reliability of Slender Reinforced Concrete Columns: Part 1

Authors: Metwally Abdel Aziz Ahmed, Ahmed Shaban Abdel Hay Gabr, Inas Mohamed Saleh

Abstract:

The main objective of structural design is to ensure safety and functional performance requirements of a structural system for its target reliability levels. In this study, the reliability index for the reinforcement concrete slender columns with rectangular cross section is studied. The variable parameters studied include the loads, the concrete compressive strength, the steel yield strength, the dimensions of concrete cross-section, the reinforcement ratio, and the location of steel placement. Risk analysis program was used to perform the analytical study. The effect of load eccentricity on the reliability index of reinforced concrete slender column was studied and presented. The results of this study indicate that the good quality control improve the performance of slender reinforced columns through increasing the reliability index β.

Keywords: Reliability, reinforced concrete, safety, slender column.

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729 Optimum Shape and Design of Cooling Towers

Authors: A. M. El Ansary, A. A. El Damatty, A. O. Nassef

Abstract:

The aim of the current study is to develop a numerical tool that is capable of achieving an optimum shape and design of hyperbolic cooling towers based on coupling a non-linear finite element model developed in-house and a genetic algorithm optimization technique. The objective function is set to be the minimum weight of the tower. The geometric modeling of the tower is represented by means of B-spline curves. The finite element method is applied to model the elastic buckling behaviour of a tower subjected to wind pressure and dead load. The study is divided into two main parts. The first part investigates the optimum shape of the tower corresponding to minimum weight assuming constant thickness. The study is extended in the second part by introducing the shell thickness as one of the design variables in order to achieve an optimum shape and design. Design, functionality and practicality constraints are applied.

Keywords: B-splines, Cooling towers, Finite element, Genetic algorithm, Optimization

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728 Thixomixing as Novel Method for Fabrication Aluminum Composite with Carbon and Alumina Fibers

Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

Abstract:

This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: Aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion.

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727 EEG Indices to Time-On-Task Effects and to a Workload Manipulation (Cueing)

Authors: A. T. Kamzanova, G. Matthews, A. M. Kustubayeva, S. M. Jakupov

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of a range of EEG indices to time-on-task effects and to a workload manipulation (cueing), during performance of a resource-limited vigilance task. Effects of task period and cueing on performance and subjective state response were consistent with previous vigilance studies and with resource theory. Two EEG indices – the Task Load Index (TLI) and global lower frequency (LF) alpha power – showed effects of task period and cueing similar to those seen with correct detections. Across four successive task periods, the TLI declined and LF alpha power increased. Cueing increased TLI and decreased LF alpha. Other indices – the Engagement Index (EI), frontal theta and upper frequency (UF) alpha failed to show these effects. However, EI and frontal theta were sensitive to interactive effects of task period and cueing, which may correspond to a stronger anxiety response to the uncued task.

Keywords: brain activity, EEG, task engagement, vigilance task.

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726 Impact of Implementing VPN to Secure Wireless LAN

Authors: H. Bourdoucen, A. Al Naamany, A. Al Kalbani

Abstract:

Many corporations are seriously concerned about security of networks and therefore, their network supervisors are still reluctant to install WLANs. In this regards, the IEEE802.11i standard was developed to address the security problems, even though the mistrust of the wireless LAN technology is still existing. The thought was that the best security solutions could be found in open standards based technologies that can be delivered by Virtual Private Networking (VPN) being used for long time without addressing any security holes for the past few years. This work, addresses this issue and presents a simulated wireless LAN of IEEE802.11g protocol, and analyzes impact of integrating Virtual Private Network technology to secure the flow of traffic between the client and the server within the LAN, using OPNET WLAN utility. Two Wireless LAN scenarios have been introduced and simulated. These are based on normal extension to a wired network and VPN over extension to a wired network. The results of the two scenarios are compared and indicate the impact of improving performance, measured by response time and load, of Virtual Private Network over wireless LAN.

Keywords: IEEE802.11, VPN, Networking, Secure Wireless, WLAN, Opnet.

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725 Evaluation of the Accuracy of Time of Arrival Source Location Algorithm of Acoustic Emission in Concrete-Mortar Structure

Authors: Hisham A. Elfergani, Ayad A. Abdalla, Ahmed R. Ballil

Abstract:

Acoustic Emission (AE) is one of the most effective non-destructive tests that can be used to detect the defect process as it is occurring. AE techniques can be used to monitor a wide range of structures and materials such as metals, non-metals and combinations of these when load is applied. The current work investigates the effectiveness and accuracy of TOA method in AE tests involving reinforced composite concrete-mortar structures. A series of experimental tests were performed using the Hsu-Neilson (H-N) source to study 2-D location accuracy using this method on concrete-mortar (400×400 mm) specimens. Four AE sensors (R3I – resonant frequency 30 kHz) were mounted to the mortar surface and six sources were performed at each point of preselected locations on the upper surface of the mortar. Results show that the TOA method can be used effectively to locate signals on composite concrete/mortar specimen and has high accuracy.

Keywords: Acoustic emission, time of arrival, composite materials, reinforced concrete.

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724 Impact of Brand Origin on Brand Loyalty: A Case of Personal Care Products in Pakistan

Authors: Aimen Batool Bint-E-Rashid, Syed Muhammad Dawood Ali Shah, Muhammad Usman Farooq, Mahgul Anwar

Abstract:

As the world is progressing, the needs and demands of the consumer market are also changing. Nowadays the trends of consumer purchase decisions are dependent upon multiple factors. This study aims to identify the influential impact of country of origin over the perception and devotion towards daily personal care products specifically in reference to the knowledge and awareness regarding that particular brand in Pakistan. To corroborate this study, a 30-item brand origin questionnaire has been used with 300 purchase decision makers belonging to different age groups. To illustrate this study, a model has been developed based on brand origin, brand awareness and brand loyalty. Correlation and regression analysis have been used to find out the results which conclude the findings on the perspective of Pakistan’s consumer market as that brand origin has a direct relationship with brand loyalty provided that the consumer has a positive brand awareness. Support for the fact that brand origin impacts brand loyalty through brand awareness has been presented in this study.

Keywords: Brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand origin, personal care products, P&G, Unilever.

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723 Finite Element Analysis of the Blanking and Stamping Processes of Nuclear Fuel Spacer Grids

Authors: R. O. Santos, L. P. Moreira, M. C. Cardoso

Abstract:

Spacer grid assembly supporting the nuclear fuel rods is an important concern in the design of structural components of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The spacer grid is composed by springs and dimples which are formed from a strip sheet by means of blanking and stamping processes. In this paper, the blanking process and tooling parameters are evaluated by means of a 2D plane-strain finite element model in order to evaluate the punch load and quality of the sheared edges of Inconel 718 strips used for nuclear spacer grids. A 3D finite element model is also proposed to predict the tooling loads resulting from the stamping process of a preformed Inconel 718 strip and to analyse the residual stress effects upon the spring and dimple design geometries of a nuclear spacer grid.

Keywords: Blanking process, damage model, finite element modelling, Inconel 718, spacer grids, stamping process.

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722 Risk Assessment of Particulate Matter (PM10) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

Abstract:

In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. Samples were collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) μg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) μg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4-253.8) μg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) μg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 μg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: Air pollution, Respiratory diseases, AirQ2.2.3, Makkah.

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721 Effects of Photovoltaic System Introduction in Detached Houses with All-Electrified Residential Equipment in Japan

Authors: Qingrong Liu, Tetsuo Hayashi, Yuji Ryu

Abstract:

In this paper, in order to investigate the effects of photovoltaic system introduction to detached houses in Japan, two kinds of works were done. Firstly, the hourly generation amount of a 4.2kW photovoltaic system were simulated in 46 cities to investigate the potential of the system in different regions in Japan using a simulation model of photovoltaic system. Secondly, based on the simulated electricity generation amount, the energy saving, the environmental and the economic effect of the photovoltaic system were examined from hourly to annual timescales, based upon calculations of typical electricity, heating, cooling and hot water supply load profiles for Japanese dwellings. The above analysis was carried out using a standard year-s hourly weather data for the different city provided by the Expanded AMeDAS Weather Data issued by AIJ (Architectural Institute of Japan).

Keywords: Photovoltaic system, Energy saving, Environmental effect, Japanese dwelling, Detached house.

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720 Outer-Brace Stress Concentration Factors of Offshore Two-Planar Tubular DKT-Joints

Authors: Mohammad Ali Lotfollahi-Yaghin, Hamid Ahmadi

Abstract:

In the present paper, a set of parametric FE stress analyses is carried out for two-planar welded tubular DKT-joints under two different axial load cases. Analysis results are used to present general remarks on the effect of geometrical parameters on the stress concentration factors (SCFs) at the inner saddle, outer saddle, toe, and heel positions on the main (outer) brace. Then a new set of SCF parametric equations is developed through nonlinear regression analysis for the fatigue design of two-planar DKT-joints. An assessment study of these equations is conducted against the experimental data; and the satisfaction of the criteria regarding the acceptance of parametric equations is checked. Significant effort has been devoted by researchers to the study of SCFs in various uniplanar tubular connections. Nevertheless, for multi-planar joints covering the majority of practical applications, very few investigations have been reported due to the complexity and high cost involved.

Keywords: Offshore jacket structure, Parametric equation, Stress concentration factor (SCF), Two-planar tubular KT-joint

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719 Experimental Characterization of Anisotropic Mechanical Properties of Textile Woven Fabric

Authors: Rym Zouari, Sami Ben Amar, Abdelwaheb Dogui

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental characterization of the anisotropic mechanical behavior of 4 textile woven fabrics with different weaves (Twill 3, Plain, Twill4 and Satin 4) by off-axis tensile testing. These tests are applied according seven directions oriented by 15° increment with respect to the warp direction. Fixed and articulated jaws are used. Analysis of experimental results is done through global (Effort/Elongation curves) and local scales. Global anisotropy was studied from the Effort/Elongation curves: shape, breaking load (Frup), tensile elongation (EMT), tensile energy (WT) and linearity index (LT). Local anisotropy was studied from the measurement of strain tensor components in the central area of the specimen as a function of testing orientation and effort: longitudinal strain ɛL, transverse strain ɛT and shearing ɛLT. The effect of used jaws is also analyzed.

Keywords: Anisotropy, Off-axis tensile test, strain fields, Textile woven fabric.

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718 Redundancy in Steel Frames with Masonry Infill Walls

Authors: Hosein Ghaffarzadeh, Robab Naseri Ghalghachi

Abstract:

Structural redundancy is an interesting point in seismic design of structures. Initially, the structural redundancy is described as indeterminate degree of a system. Although many definitions are presented for redundancy in structures, recently the definition of structural redundancy has been related to the configuration of structural system and the number of lateral load transferring directions in the structure. The steel frames with infill walls are general systems in the constructing of usual residential buildings in some countries. It is obviously declared that the performance of structures will be affected by adding masonry infill walls. In order to investigate the effect of infill walls on the redundancy of the steel frame which constructed with masonry walls, the components of redundancy including redundancy variation index, redundancy strength index and redundancy response modification factor were extracted for the frames with masonry infills. Several steel frames with typical storey number and various numbers of bays were designed and considered. The redundancy of frames with and without infill walls was evaluated by proposed method. The results showed the presence of infill causes increase of redundancy.

Keywords: Structural redundancy, Masonry infill walls frames.

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717 Classification of Health Risk Factors to Predict the Risk of Falling in Older Adults

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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716 Optimization of Transmission Lines Loading in TNEP Using Decimal Codification Based GA

Authors: H. Shayeghi, M. Mahdavi

Abstract:

Transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) is a basic part of power system planning that determines where, when and how many new transmission lines should be added to the network. Up till now, various methods have been presented to solve the static transmission network expansion planning (STNEP) problem. But in all of these methods, lines adequacy rate has not been considered at the end of planning horizon, i.e., expanded network misses adequacy after some times and needs to be expanded again. In this paper, expansion planning has been implemented by merging lines loading parameter in the STNEP and inserting investment cost into the fitness function constraints using genetic algorithm. Expanded network will possess a maximum adequacy to provide load demand and also the transmission lines overloaded later. Finally, adequacy index could be defined and used to compare some designs that have different investment costs and adequacy rates. In this paper, the proposed idea has been tested on the Garvers network. The results show that the network will possess maximum efficiency economically.

Keywords: Adequacy Optimization, Transmission Expansion Planning, DCGA.

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715 Effect of Lubrication on the Quantity of Heat Emission of two Spur Gears in Meshing

Authors: S. A. M. Elshourbagy

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effects of lubrication on the quantity of heat emission of two spur gear. System with and without lubrication effected on the quantity of heat induced on the gear box (oil - bearings – gears). Both of lubrication and speed of motor are affected on the performance of gears. Research investigated the lubrication on the system with and without loading as well as the wear of gears and bearing's conditions. Gear box investigated includes the motor, pump, two spur gears, two shafts; speed change used pulleys and belts. Load used equal one weight ones of gear. Lubrication mechanism used jet system (upper and lower jet). Gear box we used system of jet lubrication is perpendicular direction of the contact line between two teeth. Results appeared in this work that the lubrication is the vital parameter which is affected on the performance and durability of gears and bearings. In macroscopic observation, we noted that damage of bearings happened during the absence of lubrication as well as abrasive of wear of teeth. Higher speed of motor without lubrication increased the noise, but in the presence of lubrication was decreased.

Keywords: Lubrication, jet, laser gun, spur gear, temperature

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714 Wind Fragility for Soundproof Wall with the Variation of Section Shape of Frame

Authors: Seong Do Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

Recently, damages due to typhoons and strong wind are on the rise. Considering this issue, we evaluated the performance of soundproofing walls based on the strong wind fragility by means of numerical analysis. Among the components of the soundproof wall, aluminum frame was the most vulnerable member, thus we have considered different section of aluminum frame in the determination of wind fragility. Wind load was randomly generated using Monte Carlo Simulation method. Moreover, limit state was based on the test standard of road construction soundproofing wall. In this study, the strong wind fragility was determined by considering the influence factors of wind exposure category, soundproof wall’s installation position, and shape of aluminum frame section. Results of this study could be used to determine the section shape of the frame that has high resistance to the wind during construction of the soundproofing wall.

Keywords: Aluminum frame soundproofing wall, Monte Carlo Simulation, numerical simulation, wind fragility.

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713 Gas Injection Transport Mechanism for Shale Oil Recovery

Authors: Chinedu Ejike

Abstract:

The United States is now energy self-sufficient due to the production of shale oil reserves. With more than half of it being tapped daily in the United States, these unconventional reserves are massive and provide immense potential for future energy demands. Drilling horizontal wells and fracking are the primary methods for developing these reserves. Regrettably, recovery efficiency is rarely greater than 10%. Gas injection enhanced oil recovery offers a significant benefit in optimizing recovery of shale oil. This could be either through huff and puff, gas flooding, and cyclic gas injection. Methane, nitrogen, and carbon (IV) oxide, among other high-pressure gases, can be injected. Operators use Darcy's law to assess a reservoir's productive capacity, but they are unaware that the law may not apply to shale oil reserves. This is due to the fact that, unlike pressure differences alone, diffusion, concentration, and gas selection all play a role in the flow of gas injected into the wellbore. The reservoir drainage and oil sweep efficiency rates are determined by the transport method. This research evaluates the parameters that influence gas injection transport mechanism. Understanding the process could accelerate recovery by two to three times.

Keywords: enhanced oil recovery, gas injection, shale oil, transport mechanism, unconventional reservoir

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712 A Teaching Learning Based Optimization for Optimal Design of a Hybrid Energy System

Authors: Ahmad Rouhani, Masoud Jabbari, Sima Honarmand

Abstract:

This paper introduces a method to optimal design of a hybrid Wind/Photovoltaic/Fuel cell generation system for a typical domestic load that is not located near the electricity grid. In this configuration the combination of a battery, an electrolyser, and a hydrogen storage tank are used as the energy storage system. The aim of this design is minimization of overall cost of generation scheme over 20 years of operation. The Matlab/Simulink is applied for choosing the appropriate structure and the optimization of system sizing. A teaching learning based optimization is used to optimize the cost function. An overall power management strategy is designed for the proposed system to manage power flows among the different energy sources and the storage unit in the system. The results have been analyzed in terms of technical and economic. The simulation results indicate that the proposed hybrid system would be a feasible solution for stand-alone applications at remote locations.

Keywords: Hybrid energy system, optimum sizing, power management, TLBO.

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711 Energy Efficient Transmission of Image over DWT-OFDM System

Authors: Lakshmi Pujitha Dachuri, Nalini Uppala

Abstract:

In many applications retransmissions of lost packets are not permitted. OFDM is a multi-carrier modulation scheme having excellent performance which allows overlapping in frequency domain. With OFDM there is a simple way of dealing with multipath relatively simple DSP algorithms.

 In this paper, an image frame is compressed using DWT, and the compressed data is arranged in data vectors, each with equal number of coefficients. These vectors are quantized and binary coded to get the bit steams, which are then packetized and intelligently mapped to the OFDM system. Based on one-bit channel state information at the transmitter, the descriptions in order of descending priority are assigned to the currently good channels such that poorer sub-channels can only affect the lesser important data vectors. We consider only one-bit channel state information available at the transmitter, informing only about the sub-channels to be good or bad. For a good sub-channel, instantaneous received power should be greater than a threshold Pth. Otherwise, the sub-channel is in fading state and considered bad for that batch of coefficients. In order to reduce the system power consumption, the mapped descriptions onto the bad sub channels are dropped at the transmitter. The binary channel state information gives an opportunity to map the bit streams intelligently and to save a reasonable amount of power. By using MAT LAB simulation we can analysis the performance of our proposed scheme, in terms of system energy saving without compromising the received quality in terms of peak signal-noise ratio.

Keywords: Binary channel state, Channel state feedback, DWT-OFDM system, Energy saving, Fading broadcast channel.

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710 Spatial Analysis of Park and Ride Users’ Dynamic Accessibility to Train Station: A Case Study in Perth

Authors: Ting (Grace) Lin, Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia, Todd Robinson

Abstract:

Accessibility analysis, examining people’s ability to access facilities and destinations, is a fundamental assessment for transport planning, policy making, and social exclusion research. Dynamic accessibility which measures accessibility in real-time traffic environment has been an advanced accessibility indicator in transport research. It is also a useful indicator to help travelers to understand travel time daily variability, assists traffic engineers to monitor traffic congestions, and finally develop effective strategies in order to mitigate traffic congestions. This research involved real-time traffic information by collecting travel time data with 15-minute interval via the TomTom® API. A framework for measuring dynamic accessibility was then developed based on the gravity theory and accessibility dichotomy theory through space and time interpolation. Finally, the dynamic accessibility can be derived at any given time and location under dynamic accessibility spatial analysis framework.

Keywords: Dynamic accessibility, space-time continuum, transport research, TomTom® API.

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709 A Failure Criterion for Unsupported Boreholes in Poorly Cemented Granular Formations

Authors: Sam S. Hashemi

Abstract:

The breakage of bonding between sand particles and their dislodgment from the borehole wall are among the main factors resulting in a borehole failure in poorly cemented granular formations. The grain debonding usually precedes the borehole failure and it can be considered as a sign that the onset of the borehole collapse is imminent. Detecting the bonding breakage point and introducing an appropriate failure criterion will play an important role in borehole stability analysis. To study the influence of different factors on the initiation of sand bonding breakage at the borehole wall, a series of laboratory tests was designed and conducted on poorly cemented sand samples. The total absorbed strain energy per volume of material up to the point of the observed particle debonding was computed. The results indicated that the particle bonding breakage point at the borehole wall was reached both before and after the peak strength of the thick-walled hollow cylinder specimens depending on the stress path and cement content. Three different cement contents and two borehole sizes were investigated to study the influence of the bonding strength and scale on the particle dislodgment. Test results showed that the stress path has a significant influence on the onset of the sand bonding breakage. It was shown that for various stress paths, there is a near linear relationship between the absorbed energy and the normal effective mean stress.

Keywords: Borehole stability, experimental studies, total strain energy, poorly cemented sands, particle bonding breakage.

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708 Analysis of Education Faculty Students’ Attitudes towards E-Learning According to Different Variables

Authors: Eyup Yurt, Ahmet Kurnaz, Ismail Sahin

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to investigate the education faculty students’ attitudes towards e-learning according to different variables. In current study, the data were collected from 393 students of an education faculty in Turkey. In this study, theattitude towards e‐learning scale and the demographic information form were used to collect data. The collected data were analyzed by t-test, ANOVA and Pearson correlation coefficient. It was found that there is a significant difference in students’ tendency towards e-learning and avoidance from e-learning based on gender. Male students have more positive attitudes towards e-learning than female students. Also, the students who used the internet lesshave higher levels of avoidance from e-learning. Additionally, it is found that there is a positive and significant relationship between the number of personal mobile learning devices and tendency towards e-learning. On the other hand, there is a negative and significant relationship between the number of personal mobile learning devices and avoidance from e-learning. Also, suggestions were presented according to findings.

Keywords: Education faculty students, attitude towards e-learning, gender, daily Internet usage time, m-learning.

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707 Climate Related Financial Risk for Automobile Industry and Impact to Financial Institutions

Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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706 The Effect of Cracking on Stiffness of Shear Walls under Lateral Loads

Authors: Anas M. Fares

Abstract:

The lateral stiffness of buildings is one of the most important properties which define resistance to displacements under lateral loads. Moreover, it has a great impact on the natural period of the structures. Different stiffness’s values can ultimately affect the behavior of the structure under the seismic load and the lateral forces that will be applied to it. In this study the effect of cracking is studied on 2D shell thin cantilever shear wall by using ETABS. Multi linear elastic analysis is conducted with the ACI stiffness modifiers for each analysis step. The results showed that the cracks affect the value of the drift especially at the top of the high rise buildings and this will change the lateral stiffness and so change the fundamental period of the structures which lead to change in the applied shear force that comes from the earthquake. Finally, this study emphasizes that the finite element method can be considered as a good tool to predict the tensile stresses in the elements.

Keywords: Lateral loads, lateral displacement, reinforced concrete, shear wall, Cracks, ETABS, ACI code, stiffness.

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705 Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System for High School Students Based on Learning Styles

Authors: Stephen Akuma, Timothy Ndera

Abstract:

Information seekers get “lost in hyperspace” due to the voluminous documents updated daily on the internet. Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHS) are used to direct learners to their target goals. One of the most common AHS designed to help information seekers to overcome the problem of information overload is the Adaptive Education Hypermedia System (AEHS). However, this paper focuses on AEHS that adopts the learning preference of high school students and deliver learning content according to this preference throughout their learning experience. The research developed a prototype system for predicting students’ learning preference from the Visual, Aural, Read-Write and Kinesthetic (VARK) learning style model and adopting the learning content suitable to their preference. The predicting strength of several classifiers was compared and we found Support Vector Machine (SVM) to be more accurate in predicting learning style based on users’ preferences.

Keywords: Hypermedia, adaptive education, learning style, lesson content, user profile, prediction, feedback, adaptive hypermedia, learning style.

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704 Maximum Power Point Tracking Based on Estimated Power for PV Energy Conversion System

Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

Abstract:

In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: Control system, power error, solar panel, MPPT.

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703 Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of ROSA/LSTF Test on Pressurized Water Reactor 1.9% Vessel Upper Head Small-Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident

Authors: Takeshi Takeda

Abstract:

An experiment utilizing the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) simulated a 1.9% vessel upper head small-break loss-of-coolant accident with an accident management (AM) measure under the total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system in a pressurized water reactor. Steam generator (SG) secondary-side depressurization on the AM measure was started by fully opening relief valves in both SGs when the maximum core exit temperature rose to 623 K. A large increase took place in the cladding surface temperature of simulated fuel rods on account of a late and slow response of core exit thermocouples during core boil-off. The author analyzed the LSTF test by reference to the matrix of an integral effect test for the validation of a thermal-hydraulic system code. Problems remained in predicting the primary coolant distribution and the core exit temperature with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code. The uncertainty analysis results of the RELAP5 code confirmed that the sample size with respect to the order statistics influences the value of peak cladding temperature with a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level, and the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, uncertainty analysis, RELAP5.

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702 Replicating Data Objects in Large-scale Distributed Computing Systems using Extended Vickrey Auction

Authors: Samee Ullah Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel game theoretical technique to address the problem of data object replication in largescale distributed computing systems. The proposed technique draws inspiration from computational economic theory and employs the extended Vickrey auction. Specifically, players in a non-cooperative environment compete for server-side scarce memory space to replicate data objects so as to minimize the total network object transfer cost, while maintaining object concurrency. Optimization of such a cost in turn leads to load balancing, fault-tolerance and reduced user access time. The method is experimentally evaluated against four well-known techniques from the literature: branch and bound, greedy, bin-packing and genetic algorithms. The experimental results reveal that the proposed approach outperforms the four techniques in both the execution time and solution quality.

Keywords: Auctions, data replication, pricing, static allocation.

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701 Optimization Approaches for a Complex Dairy Farm Simulation Model

Authors: Jagannath Aryal, Don Kulasiri, Dishi Liu

Abstract:

This paper describes the optimization of a complex dairy farm simulation model using two quite different methods of optimization, the Genetic algorithm (GA) and the Lipschitz Branch-and-Bound (LBB) algorithm. These techniques have been used to improve an agricultural system model developed by Dexcel Limited, New Zealand, which describes a detailed representation of pastoral dairying scenarios and contains an 8-dimensional parameter space. The model incorporates the sub-models of pasture growth and animal metabolism, which are themselves complex in many cases. Each evaluation of the objective function, a composite 'Farm Performance Index (FPI)', requires simulation of at least a one-year period of farm operation with a daily time-step, and is therefore computationally expensive. The problem of visualization of the objective function (response surface) in high-dimensional spaces is also considered in the context of the farm optimization problem. Adaptations of the sammon mapping and parallel coordinates visualization are described which help visualize some important properties of the model-s output topography. From this study, it is found that GA requires fewer function evaluations in optimization than the LBB algorithm.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Linux Cluster, LipschitzBranch-and-Bound, Optimization

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