Search results for: Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT)

Authors: Xueqin Shan, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye, Chuanming Wu

Abstract:

Any decision-making is based on certain theory. Taking the public rental housing in Chongqing municipality as an example, this essay states that the stakeholder theory can provide innovative criteria and evaluation methods for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. It gives an analysis of how to choose decision-making criteria for different stakeholders in the PPP model and what measures to take to meet the criteria to form “symbiotic" decision-making mode through contracts and to boost the application of PPP model in large-scale public programs in China.

Keywords: PPP, Stakeholder Theory, Stakeholders, Decision- making Criteria

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Molaei

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New Growth Theory helps us make sense of the ongoing shift from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. It underscores the point that the economic processes which create and diffuse new knowledge are critical to shaping the growth of nations, communities and individual firms. In all too many contributions to New (Endogenous) Growth Theory – though not in all – central reference is made to 'a stock of knowledge', a 'stock of ideas', etc., this variable featuring centre-stage in the analysis. Yet it is immediately apparent that this is far from being a crystal clear concept. The difficulty and uncertainty of being able to capture the value associated with knowledge is a real problem. The intent of this paper is introducing new thinking and theorizing about the knowledge and its measurability in new growth theory. Moreover the study aims to synthesize various strain of the literature with a practical bearing on knowledge concept. By contribution of institution framework which is found within NGT, we can indirectly measure the knowledge concept. Institutions matter because they shape the environment for production and employment of new knowledge

Keywords: Institution Framework, Knowledge, New GrowthTheory (NGT)

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Authors: Julian Pigott

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This paper presents the Language Learning as a Means of Drive Engagement (LLMDE) theory, derived from a grounded theory analysis of interviews with Japanese university students. According to LLMDE theory, language learning can be understood as a means of engaging one or more of four self-fulfillment drives: the drive to expand one’s horizons (perspective drive); the drive to make a success of oneself (status drive); the drive to engage in interaction with others (communication drive); and the drive to obtain intellectual and affective stimulation (entertainment drive). While many theories of learner psychology focus on conscious agency, LLMDE theory addresses the role of the unconscious. In addition, supplementary thematic analysis of the data revealed the role of context in mediating drive engagement. Unexpected memorable events, for example, play a key role in instigating and, indirectly, in regulating learning, as do institutional and cultural contexts. Given the apparent importance of such factors beyond the immediate control of the learner, and given the pervasive role of habit and drives, it is argued that the concept of motivation merits theoretical reappraisal. Rather than an underlying force determining language learning success or failure, it can be understood to emerge sporadically in consciousness to promote behavioral change, or to protect habitual behavior from disruption.

Keywords: Drives, grounded theory, motivation, significant events.

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

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In aviation a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre-sticks, side-sticks, pedals and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging and with them a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare dynamic amplification factors of design described in this paper with classical one. Functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carried out a comfort of use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including literature review, reasoning behind components selection and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: Mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming, rescue missions, rescue robotics.

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Authors: Siyuan Jing, Kun She

Abstract:

Neighborhood Rough Sets (NRS) has been proven to be an efficient tool for heterogeneous attribute reduction. However, most of researches are focused on dealing with complete and noiseless data. Factually, most of the information systems are noisy, namely, filled with incomplete data and inconsistent data. In this paper, we introduce a generalized neighborhood rough sets model, called VPTNRS, to deal with the problem of heterogeneous attribute reduction in noisy system. We generalize classical NRS model with tolerance neighborhood relation and the probabilistic theory. Furthermore, we use the neighborhood dependency to evaluate the significance of a subset of heterogeneous attributes and construct a forward greedy algorithm for attribute reduction based on it. Experimental results show that the model is efficient to deal with noisy data.

Keywords: attribute reduction, incomplete data, inconsistent data, tolerance neighborhood relation, rough sets

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Authors: Weifeng Pan

Abstract:

Complex networks have been intensively studied across many fields, especially in Internet technology, biological engineering, and nonlinear science. Software is built up out of many interacting components at various levels of granularity, such as functions, classes, and packages, representing another important class of complex networks. It can also be studied using complex network theory. Over the last decade, many papers on the interdisciplinary research between software engineering and complex networks have been published. It provides a different dimension to our understanding of software and also is very useful for the design and development of software systems. This paper will explore how to use the complex network theory to analyze software structure, and briefly review the main advances in corresponding aspects.

Keywords: Metrics, measurement, complex networks, software.

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Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

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In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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Authors: O. J. Olaniran, P. E. D. Love, D. J. Edwards, O. Olatunji, J. Matthews

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Cost overruns are a persistent problem in oil and gas megaprojects. Whilst the extant literature is filled with studies on incidents and causes of cost overruns, underlying theories to explain their emergence in oil and gas megaprojects are few. Yet, a way to contain the syndrome of cost overruns is to understand the bases of ‘how and why’ they occur. Such knowledge will also help to develop pragmatic techniques for better overall management of oil and gas megaprojects. The aim of this paper is to explain the development of cost overruns in hydrocarbon megaprojects through the perspective of chaos theory. The underlying principles of chaos theory and its implications for cost overruns are examined and practical recommendations proposed. In addition, directions for future research in this fertile area provided.

Keywords: Chaos theory, oil and gas, cost overruns, megaprojects.

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Authors: Soon Fook Fong, Aldalalah, M. Osamah

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The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of modality and redundancy principles on music theory learning among pupils of different anxiety levels. The lesson of music theory was developed in three different modes, audio and image (AI), text with image (TI) and audio with image and text (AIT). The independent variables were the three modes of courseware. The moderator variable was the anxiety level, while the dependent variable was the post test score. The study sample consisted of 405 third-grade pupils. Descriptive and inferential statistics were conducted to analyze the collected data. Analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) and Post hoc were carried out to examine the main effects as well as the interaction effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The findings of this study showed that medium anxiety pupils performed significantly better than low and high anxiety pupils in all the three treatment modes. The AI mode was found to help pupils with high anxiety significantly more than the TI and AIT modes.

Keywords: Modality, Redundancy, Music theory, Cognitivetheory of multimedia learning, Cognitive load theory, Anxiety.

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Authors: P.Ramanathan, P.T.Vanathi

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Parallel Prefix addition is a technique for improving the speed of binary addition. Due to continuing integrating intensity and the growing needs of portable devices, low-power and highperformance designs are of prime importance. The classical parallel prefix adder structures presented in the literature over the years optimize for logic depth, area, fan-out and interconnect count of logic circuits. In this paper, a new architecture for performing 8-bit, 16-bit and 32-bit Parallel Prefix addition is proposed. The proposed prefix adder structures is compared with several classical adders of same bit width in terms of power, delay and number of computational nodes. The results reveal that the proposed structures have the least power delay product when compared with its peer existing Prefix adder structures. Tanner EDA tool was used for simulating the adder designs in the TSMC 180 nm and TSMC 130 nm technologies.

Keywords: Parallel Prefix Adder (PPA), Dot operator, Semi-Dotoperator, Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS), Odd-dot operator, Even-dot operator, Odd-semi-dot operator andEven-semi-dot operator.

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Authors: P. Ruttanee, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak

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Dynamic models of power converters are normally time-varying because of their switching actions. Several approaches are applied to analyze the power converters to achieve the timeinvariant models suitable for system analysis and design via the classical control theory. The paper presents how to derive dynamic models of the power system consisting of a three-phase controlled rectifier feeding an uncontrolled buck converter by using the combination between the well known techniques called the DQ and the generalized state-space averaging methods. The intensive timedomain simulations of the exact topology model are used to support the accuracies of the reported model. The results show that the proposed model can provide good accuracies in both transient and steady-state responses.

Keywords: DQ method, Generalized state-space averaging method, Three-phase controlled rectifier, Uncontrolled buck converter, Averaging model, Modeling, Simulation.

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Authors: Fahad Alsharari, Mohd Salmi Md Noorani

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A Motzkin shift is a mathematical model for constraints on genetic sequences. In terms of the theory of symbolic dynamics, the Motzkin shift is nonsofic, and therefore, we cannot use the Perron- Frobenius theory to calculate its topological entropy. The Motzkin shift M(M,N) which comes from language theory, is defined to be the shift system over an alphabet A that consists of N negative symbols, N positive symbols and M neutral symbols. For an x in the full shift, x will be in the Motzkin subshift M(M,N) if and only if every finite block appearing in x has a non-zero reduced form. Therefore, the constraint for x cannot be bounded in length. K. Inoue has shown that the entropy of the Motzkin shift M(M,N) is log(M + N + 1). In this paper, a new direct method of calculating the topological entropy of the Motzkin shift is given without any measure theoretical discussion.

Keywords: Motzkin shift, topological entropy.

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Authors: Ju-Chun Chien

Abstract:

The validity of Herzberg-s Two-Factor Theory of Motivation was tested empirically by surveying 2372 chemical fiber employees in 2012. In the valid sample of 1875 respondents, the degree of overall job satisfaction was more than moderate. The most highly valued components of job satisfaction were: “corporate image," “collaborative working atmosphere," and “supervisor-s expertise"; whereas the lowest mean score was 34.65 for “job rotation and promotion." The top three job retention options rated by the participants were “good image of the enterprise," “good compensation," and “workplace is close to my residence." The overall evaluation of the level of thriving facilitation workplace reached almost to “mostly agree." For those participants who chose at least one motivator as their job retention options had significantly greater job satisfaction than those who chose only hygiene factors as their retention options. Therefore, Herzberg-s Two-Factor Theory of Motivation was proven valid in this study.

Keywords: Employee job satisfaction, Job retention, Traditional business, Two-factor theory of motivation.

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Authors: S. Cherif, M. Turki-Hadj Alouane

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In this paper, we propose a modified version of the Constant Modulus Algorithm (CMA) tailored for blind Decision Feedback Equalizer (DFE) of first order Markovian time varying channels. The proposed NonStationary CMA (NSCMA) is designed so that it explicitly takes into account the Markovian structure of the channel nonstationarity. Hence, unlike the classical CMA, the NSCMA is not blind with respect to the channel time variations. This greatly helps the equalizer in the case of realistic channels, and avoids frequent transmissions of training sequences. This paper develops a theoretical analysis of the steady state performance of the CMA and the NSCMA for DFEs within a time varying context. Therefore, approximate expressions of the mean square errors are derived. We prove that in the steady state, the NSCMA exhibits better performance than the classical CMA. These new results are confirmed by simulation. Through an experimental study, we demonstrate that the Bit Error Rate (BER) is reduced by the NSCMA-DFE, and the improvement of the BER achieved by the NSCMA-DFE is as significant as the channel time variations are severe.

Keywords: Time varying channel, Markov model, Blind DFE, CMA, NSCMA.

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Authors: Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

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In this paper, a fuzzy algorithm and a fuzzy multicriteria decision framework are developed and used for a practical question of optimizing biofuels policy making. The methodological framework shows how to incorporate fuzzy set theory in a decision process of finding a sustainable biofuels policy among several policy options. Fuzzy set theory is used here as a tool to deal with uncertainties of decision environment, vagueness and ambiguities of policy objectives, subjectivities of human assessments and imprecise and incomplete information about the evaluated policy instruments.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision-makingsupport, uncertainties, policy making, biofuels

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Authors: Ahmed N. Shmroukh, Ahmed Hamza H. Ali, Ali K. Abel-Rahman

Abstract:

Adsorption refrigeration working pair is a vital and is the main component in the adsorption refrigeration machine. Therefore the development key is laying on the adsorption pair that leads to the improvement of the adsorption refrigeration machine. In this study the state-of-the-art in the application of the adsorption refrigeration working pairs in both classical and modern adsorption pairs are presented, compared and summarized. It is found that the maximum adsorption capacity for the classical working pairs was 0.259kg/kg for activated carbon/methanol and that for the modern working pairs was 2kg/kg for maxsorb III/R-134a. The study concluded that, the performances of the adsorption working pairs of adsorption cooling systems are still need further investigations as well as developing adsorption pairs having higher sorption capacity with low or no impact on environmental, to build compact, efficient, reliable and long life performance adsorption chillier. Also, future researches need to be focused on designing the adsorption system that provide efficient heating and cooling for the adsorbent materials through distributing the adsorbent material over heat exchanger surface, to allow good heat and mass transfer between the adsorbent and the refrigerant.

Keywords: Adsorption, Adsorbent/Adsorbate Pairs, Refrigeration.

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Authors: Kristina Davoian, Wolfram-M. Lippe

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Evolutionary Programming (EP) represents a methodology of Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) in which mutation is considered as a main reproduction operator. This paper presents a novel EP approach for Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) learning. The proposed strategy consists of two components: the self-adaptive, which contains phenotype information and the dynamic, which is described by genotype. Self-adaptation is achieved by the addition of a value, called the network weight, which depends on a total number of hidden layers and an average number of neurons in hidden layers. The dynamic component changes its value depending on the fitness of a chromosome, exposed to mutation. Thus, the mutation step size is controlled by two components, encapsulated in the algorithm, which adjust it according to the characteristics of a predefined ANN architecture and the fitness of a particular chromosome. The comparative analysis of the proposed approach and the classical EP (Gaussian mutation) showed, that that the significant acceleration of the evolution process is achieved by using both phenotype and genotype information in the mutation strategy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Learning Theory, Evolutionary Programming (EP), Mutation, Self-Adaptation.

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Authors: Mogens Frank Mikkelsen

Abstract:

Special Relativity Theory (SRT) includes only one characteristic of light, the speed is equal to all observers, and by excluding other relevant characteristics of light, the common interpretation of SRT should be regarded as merely an approximative theory. By rethinking the iconic double light cones, a revised version of SRT can be developed. The revised concept of light cones acknowledges an asymmetry of past and future light cones and introduced a concept of the extended past to explain the predictions as something other than the future. Combining this with the concept of photon-paired events, led to the inference that SRT can support the existence of Now. The paper takes a critical approach to the mathematical assumption behind current interpretation of SRT.

Keywords: Relativity, light cone, Minkowski, time.

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Authors: Ping He

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of the partial state feedback stabilization of a class of nonlinear systems. In order to stabilization this class systems, the especial place of this paper is to reverse designing the state feedback control law from the method of judging system stability with the center manifold theory. First of all, the center manifold theory is applied to discuss the stabilization sufficient condition and design the stabilizing state control laws for a class of nonlinear. Secondly, the problem of partial stabilization for a class of plane nonlinear system is discuss using the lyapunov second method and the center manifold theory. Thirdly, we investigate specially the problem of the stabilization for a class of homogenous plane nonlinear systems, a class of nonlinear with dual-zero eigenvalues and a class of nonlinear with zero-center using the method of lyapunov function with homogenous derivative, specifically. At the end of this paper, some examples and simulation results are given show that the approach of this paper to this class of nonlinear system is effective and convenient.

Keywords: Partial stabilization, Nonlinear critical systems, Centermanifold theory, Lyapunov function, System reduction.

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Authors: Wojciech Rejchel

Abstract:

The problem of ranking (rank regression) has become popular in the machine learning community. This theory relates to problems, in which one has to predict (guess) the order between objects on the basis of vectors describing their observed features. In many ranking algorithms a convex loss function is used instead of the 0-1 loss. It makes these procedures computationally efficient. Hence, convex risk minimizers and their statistical properties are investigated in this paper. Fast rates of convergence are obtained under conditions, that look similarly to the ones from the classification theory. Methods used in this paper come from the theory of U-processes as well as empirical processes.

Keywords: Convex loss function, empirical risk minimization, empirical process, U-process, boosting, euclidean family.

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Authors: Wei-Hsuan Lee, Chien-Hua Wang, Chin-Tzong Pang

Abstract:

This paper applies fuzzy set theory to evaluate the service quality of online auction. Service quality is a composition of various criteria. Among them many intangible attributes are difficult to measure. This characteristic introduces the obstacles for respondent in replying to the survey. So as to overcome this problem, we invite fuzzy set theory into the measurement of performance. By using AHP in obtaining criteria and TOPSIS in ranking, we found the most concerned dimension of service quality is Transaction Safety Mechanism and the least is Charge Item. Regarding to the most concerned attributes are information security, accuracy and information.

Keywords: AHP, Fuzzy set theory, TOPSIS, Online auction, Servicequality

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Authors: S. H. Nasseri, E. Ardil, A. Yazdani, R. Zaefarian

Abstract:

The fuzzy set theory has been applied in many fields, such as operations research, control theory, and management sciences, etc. In particular, an application of this theory in decision making problems is linear programming problems with fuzzy numbers. In this study, we present a new method for solving fuzzy number linear programming problems, by use of linear ranking function. In fact, our method is similar to simplex method that was used for solving linear programming problems in crisp environment before.

Keywords: Fuzzy number linear programming, rankingfunction, simplex method.

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Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

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Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform which is often symbolized as the rotation in time- frequency plane. Similar to the product of time and frequency span which provides the Uncertainty Principle for the classical Fourier domain, there has not been till date an Uncertainty Principle for the Fractional Fourier domain for a generalized class of finite energy signals. Though the lower bound for the product of time and Fractional Fourier span is derived for the real signals, a tighter lower bound for a general class of signals is of practical importance, especially for the analysis of signals containing chirps. We hence formulate a mathematical derivation that gives the lower bound of time and Fractional Fourier span product. The relation proves to be utmost importance in taking the Fractional Fourier Transform with adaptive time and Fractional span resolutions for a varied class of complex signals.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, uncertainty principle, Fractional Fourier Span, amplitude, phase.

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Authors: F.Ebrahimi, A.Rastgo

Abstract:

Analytical investigation of the free vibration behavior of circular functionally graded (FG) plates integrated with two uniformly distributed actuator layers made of piezoelectric (PZT4) material on the top and bottom surfaces of the circular FG plate based on the classical plate theory (CPT) is presented in this paper. The material properties of the functionally graded substrate plate are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction according to the power-law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents and the distribution of electric potential field along the thickness direction of piezoelectric layers is simulated by a quadratic function. The differential equations of motion are solved analytically for clamped edge boundary condition of the plate. The detailed mathematical derivations are presented and Numerical investigations are performed for FG plates with two surface-bonded piezoelectric layers. Emphasis is placed on investigating the effect of varying the gradient index of FG plate on the free vibration characteristics of the structure. The results are verified by those obtained from threedimensional finite element analyses.

Keywords: Circular plate, CPT, Functionally graded, Piezoelectric.

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Authors: Jinming Ma, Tianbing Xia, Janusz R. Getta

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This paper presents the application of fuzzy set theory to implement of mobile advertisement anti-fraud systems. Mobile anti-fraud is a method aiming to identify mobile advertisement fraudsters. One of the main problems of mobile anti-fraud is the lack of evidence to prove a user to be a fraudster. In this paper, we implement an application by using fuzzy set theory to demonstrate how to detect cheaters. The advantage of our method is that the hardship in detecting fraudsters in small data samples has been avoided. We achieved this by giving each user a suspicious degree showing how likely the user is cheating and decide whether a group of users (like all users of a certain APP) together to be fraudsters according to the average suspicious degree. This makes the process more accurate as the data of a single user is too small to be predictable.

Keywords: Mobile internet, advertisement, anti-fraud, fuzzy set theory.

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Authors: El Kaak, Rachid, El Bikri, Khalid, Benamar, Rhali

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This paper describes a study of geometrically nonlinear free vibration of thin circular functionally graded (CFGP) plates resting on Winkler elastic foundations. The material properties of the functionally graded composites examined here are assumed to be graded smoothly and continuously through the direction of the plate thickness according to a power law and are estimated using the rule of mixture. The theoretical model is based on the classical Plate theory and the Von-Kármán geometrical nonlinearity assumptions. An homogenization procedure (HP) is developed to reduce the problem considered here to that of isotropic homogeneous circular plates resting on Winkler foundation. Hamilton-s principle is applied and a multimode approach is derived to calculate the fundamental nonlinear frequency parameters which are found to be in a good agreement with the published results. On the other hand, the influence of the foundation parameters on the nonlinear fundamental frequency has also been analysed.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, nonlinear vibrations, Winkler foundation.

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Authors: S. Meziane, H. I. Faraoun, C. Esling

Abstract:

Transition metal dichalcogenides have potential applications in power generation devices that convert waste heat into electric current by the so-called Seebeck and Hall effects thus providing an alternative energy technology to reduce the dependence on traditional fossil fuels. In this study, the thermoelectric properties of 1T and 2HTaX2 (X= S or Se) dichalcogenide superconductors have been computed using the semi-classical Boltzmann theory. Technologically, the task is to fabricate suitable materials with high efficiency. It is found that 2HTaS2 possesses the largest value of figure of merit ZT= 1.27 at 175 K. From a scientific point of view, we aim to model the underlying materials properties and in particular the transport phenomena as mediated by electrons and lattice vibrations responsible for superconductivity, Charge Density Waves (CDW) and metal/insulator transitions as function of temperature. The goal of the present work is to develop an understanding of the superconductivity of these selected materials using the transport properties at the fundamental level.

Keywords: Ab initio, high efficiency, power generation devices, transition metal dichalcogenides.

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Authors: Xun Ge, Songlin Yang

Abstract:

Soft set theory was initiated by Molodtsov in 1999. In the past years, this theory had been applied to many branches of mathematics, information science and computer science. In 2003, Maji et al. introduced some operations of soft sets and gave some operational rules. Recently, some of these operational rules are pointed out to be not true. Furthermore, Ali et al., in their paper, introduced and discussed some new operations of soft sets. In this paper, we further investigate these operational rules given by Maji et al. and Ali et al.. We obtain some sufficient-necessary conditions such that corresponding operational rules hold and give correct forms for some operational rules. These results will be help for us to use rightly operational rules of soft sets in research and application of soft set theory.

Keywords: Soft sets, union, intersection, complement.

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.

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Authors: Panam. Zarfam, Mohsen. Javan Pour

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Recently, analysis and designing of the structures based on the Reliability theory have been the center of attention. Reason of this attention is the existence of the natural and random structural parameters such as the material specification, external loads, geometric dimensions etc. By means of the Reliability theory, uncertainties resulted from the statistical nature of the structural parameters can be changed into the mathematical equations and the safety and operational considerations can be considered in the designing process. According to this theory, it is possible to study the destruction probability of not only a specific element but also the entire system. Therefore, after being assured of safety of every element, their reciprocal effects on the safety of the entire system can be investigated.

Keywords: Probability, Reliability, Statistics, Uncertainty

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