Search results for: smartphone application.

Authors: Yahya H. Zweiri

Abstract:

The back-propagation algorithm calculates the weight changes of an artificial neural network, and a two-term algorithm with a dynamically optimal learning rate and a momentum factor is commonly used. Recently the addition of an extra term, called a proportional factor (PF), to the two-term BP algorithm was proposed. The third term increases the speed of the BP algorithm. However, the PF term also reduces the convergence of the BP algorithm, and optimization approaches for evaluating the learning parameters are required to facilitate the application of the three terms BP algorithm. This paper considers the optimization of the new back-propagation algorithm by using derivative information. A family of approaches exploiting the derivatives with respect to the learning rate, momentum factor and proportional factor is presented. These autonomously compute the derivatives in the weight space, by using information gathered from the forward and backward procedures. The three-term BP algorithm and the optimization approaches are evaluated using the benchmark XOR problem.

Keywords: Neural Networks, Backpropagation, Optimization.

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

Abstract:

Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: Ravindra Mallya, B. Satish Shenoy, B. Raghuvir Pai

Abstract:

The study deals with the challenges in developing a test rig to test the performance of water lubricated journal bearing. The test rig is designed to simulate the working conditions of the bearing in order to understand their performance before they are put in operation. The bearing that is studied is the commercially available water lubricated bearing which has a rubber liner bonded with a rigid metal shell. The lubricant enters the bearing axially through a pressurized inlet tank and exits to an outlet tank which is at sufficiently low pressure. The load on the bearing is applied through the dead weight system which acts both in upward and downward direction so that net load acts on the bearing. The issues in feeding the lubricant into the bearing from the inlet side and preventing the leakage of the lubricant is discussed. The application of the load on the test bearing while maintaining the bearing afloat is also discussed.

Keywords: Axial groove, hydrodynamic pressure, journal bearing, test rig, water lubrication.

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Authors: Sadi Vural, Hiromi Tomii, Hironori Yamauchi

Abstract:

As far as the latest technological improvements are concerned, digital systems more become popular than the past. Despite this growing demand to the digital systems, content copy and attack against the digital cinema contents becomes a serious problem. To solve the above security problem, we propose “traceable watermarking using Hash functions for digital cinema system. Digital Cinema is a great application for traceable watermarking since it uses watermarking technology during content play as well as content transmission. The watermark is embedded into the randomly selected movie frames using CRC-32 techniques. CRC-32 is a Hash function. Using it, the embedding position is distributed by Hash Function so that any party cannot break off the watermarking or will not be able to change. Finally, our experimental results show that proposed DWT watermarking method using CRC-32 is much better than the convenient watermarking techniques in terms of robustness, image quality and its simple but unbreakable algorithm.

Keywords: Decoder, Digital content, JPEG2000 Frame, System-On-Chip, traceable watermark, Hash Function, CRC-32.

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Richard Stechow, Sebastian Bolz, Katharina Hobusch, Sabine Weiß

Abstract:

Solid particle erosion has been identified as a critical wear phenomenon which takes place during operation of aeroengines in dusty environment. The present work discusses the erosion behavior of Ti-44.5Al-6.25Nb-0.8Mo-0.1B alloy (TNB-V4) which finds its application in low pressure gas turbines and can be used for high pressure compressors too. Prior to the erosion tests, the alloy was heat treated to improve the mechanical properties. Afterwards, specimens were eroded at impact angles of 30° and 90° at room and high temperatures (100 °C-400 °C). Volume loss and erosion behavior are studied through gravimetric analysis, whereas erosion mechanisms are characterized through scanning electron microscopy. The results indicate a clear difference in the erosion mechanism for different impact angles. The influence of the test temperature on the erosion behavior of the alloy is also discussed in the present contribution.

Keywords: Solid particle erosion, gamma TiAl, TNB-V4, high temperature erosion.

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Authors: T. Sopapirm, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak, A. Srikaew

Abstract:

The paper presents the applications of artificial intelligence technique called adaptive tabu search to design the controller of a buck converter. The averaging model derived from the DQ and generalized state-space averaging methods is applied to simulate the system during a searching process. The simulations using such averaging model require the faster computational time compared with that of the full topology model from the software packages. The reported model is suitable for the work in the paper in which the repeating calculation is needed for searching the best solution. The results will show that the proposed design technique can provide the better output waveforms compared with those designed from the classical method.

Keywords: Buck converter, adaptive tabu search, DQ method, generalized state-space averaging method, modeling and simulation

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Authors: Masoud Nasri, Ali Gholami, Ali Najafi

Abstract:

In recent years, most of the regions in the world are exposed to degradation and erosion caused by increasing population and over use of land resources. The understanding of the most important factors on soil erosion and sediment yield are the main keys for decision making and planning. In this study, the sediment yield and soil erosion were estimated and the priority of different soil erosion factors used in the MPSIAC method of soil erosion estimation is evaluated in AliAbad watershed in southwest of Isfahan Province, Iran. Different information layers of the parameters were created using a GIS technique. Then, a multivariate procedure was applied to estimate sediment yield and to find the most important factors of soil erosion in the model. The results showed that land use, geology, land and soil cover are the most important factors describing the soil erosion estimated by MPSIAC model.

Keywords: land degradation, Soil erosion, Sediment yield, Aliabad, GIS technique, Land use.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

Abstract:

In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.

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Authors: Humberto N. Teixeira, Isabel S. Lopes, Sérgio D. Sousa

Abstract:

This article proposes a new methodology to be used by SMEs (Small and Medium enterprises) to characterize their performance in quality, highlighting weaknesses and area for improvement. The methodology aims to identify the principal causes of quality problems and help to prioritize improvement initiatives. This is a self-assessment methodology that intends to be easy to implement by companies with low maturity level in quality. The methodology is organized in six different steps which includes gathering information about predetermined processes and subprocesses of quality management, defined based on the well-known Juran-s trilogy for quality management (Quality planning, quality control and quality improvement) and, predetermined results categories, defined based on quality concept. A set of tools for data collecting and analysis, such as interviews, flowcharts, process analysis diagrams and Failure Mode and effects Analysis (FMEA) are used. The article also presents the conclusions obtained in the application of the methodology in two cases studies.

Keywords: Continuous improvement, Diagnosis, Quality Management, Self-assessment, SMEs

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Authors: Ahmed A. Hassan, Al-Ramadan Baqer

Abstract:

Kenya Amboseli National Park hosts the largest elephant’s population in the country, protected and managed by the government under the Kenya Wildlife Service. The park has been experiencing highly organized poaching, in terms of both total elephant deaths and the level of sophistication employed by the poachers. The main objective of this study is to use GIS to map the entire park properly. GIS map of the park was produced including all leading roads, neighboring land use, main gates and water points with geographic co-ordinates well documented. The result obtained indicates the three main gates and the airport as the hotspot points that the tusks can be ferried out of the park. Therefore, this study recommends the government to put strong security measures on these areas. These procedures can lower the poaching threat and assist the game warders properly manage the endangered species.

Keywords: Elephants, GIS, poaching, Amboseli National Park.

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Authors: Xi Yang, Bulent Chavdar, Alan Vonseggern, Taylan Altan

Abstract:

Fracture in hot precision forging of engine valves was investigated in this paper. The entire valve forging procedure was described and the possible cause of the fracture was proposed. Finite Element simulation was conducted for the forging process, with commercial Finite Element code DEFORMTM. The effects of material properties, the effect of strain rate and temperature were considered in the FE simulation. Two fracture criteria were discussed and compared, based on the accuracy and reliability of the FE simulation results. The selected criterion predicted the fracture location and shows the trend of damage increasing with good accuracy, which matches the experimental observation. Additional modification of the punch shapes was proposed to further reduce the tendency of fracture in forging. Finite Element comparison shows a great potential of such application in the mass production.

Keywords: Hot forging, engine valve, fracture, tooling.

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Authors: K. Ighilahriz, M. Taleb Ahmed, R. Maachi

Abstract:

Oil industries are responsible for most cases of contamination of our ecosystem by oil and heavy metals. They are toxic and considered carcinogenic and dangerous even when they exist in trace amounts. At Algiers refinery, production, transportation, and refining of crude oil generate considerable waste in storage tanks; these residues result from the gravitational settling. The composition of these residues is essentially a mixture of hydrocarbon and lead. We propose in this work the application of electrooxidation treatment for the leachate of the leaden sludge. The effect of pH, current density and the electrolysis time were studied, the effectiveness of the processes is evaluated by measuring the chemical oxygen demand (COD). The dissolution is the best way to mobilize pollutants from leaden mud, so we conducted leaching before starting the electrochemical treatment. The process was carried out in batch mode using graphite anode and a stainless steel cathode. The results clearly demonstrate the compatibility of the technique used with the type of pollution studied. In fact, it allowed COD removal about 80%.

Keywords: Electrooxidation, leaching, leaden sludge, the oil industry.

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Authors: Nabli L., Dhouibi H., Collart Dutilleul S., Craye E.

Abstract:

The existence of maximal durations drastically modifies the performance evaluation in Discrete Event Systems (DES). The same particularity may be found on systems where the associated constraints do not concern the time. For example weight measures, in chemical industry, are used in order to control the quantity of consumed raw materials. This parameter also takes a fundamental part in the product quality as the correct transformation process is based upon a given percentage of each essence. Weight regulation therefore increases the global productivity of the system by decreasing the quantity of rejected products. In this paper we present an approach based on mixing different characteristics theories, the fuzzy system and Petri net system to describe the behaviour. An industriel application on a tobacco manufacturing plant, where the critical parameter is the weight is presented as an illustration.

Keywords: Petri Net, Manufacturing systems, Performance evaluation, Fuzzy logic, Tolerant system.

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Authors: Maziar Asefi

Abstract:

Built environments have a large impact on environmental sustainability and if it is not considered properly can negatively affect our planet. The application of transformable intelligent building systems that automatically respond to environmental conditions is one of the best ways that can intelligently assist us to create sustainable environment. The significance of this issue is evident as energy crisis and environmental changes has made the sustainability the main concerns in many societies. The aim of this research is to review and evaluate the importance and influence of transformable intelligent structure on the creation of sustainable architecture. Intelligent systems in current buildings provide convenience through automatically responding to changes in environmental conditions, reducing energy dissipation and increase of the lifecycle of buildings. This paper by analyzing significant intelligent building systems will evaluate the potentials of transformable intelligent systems in the creation of sustainable architecture and environment.

Keywords: Transformable, Sustainable architecture, Intelligent building system, Environment condition

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Authors: Saif N. Al-Bahry, Yahya M. Al-Wahaibi, Abdulkadir E. Elshafie, Ali S. Al-Bemani, Sanket J. Joshi

Abstract:

Environmental pollution is a global problem and best possible solution is identifying and utilizing native microorganisms. One possible application of microbial product -biosurfactant is in bioremediation of hydrocarbon contaminated sites. We have screened forty two different petroleum contaminated sites from Oman, for biosurfactant producing spore-forming bacterial isolates. Initial screening showed that out of 42 soil samples, three showed reduction in surface tension (ST) and interfacial tension (IFT) within 24h of incubation at 40°C. Out of those 3 soil samples, one was further selected for isolation of bacteria and 14 different bacteria were isolated in pure form. Of those 14 spore-forming, rod shaped bacteria, two showed highest reduction in ST and IFT in the range of 70mN/m to <35mN/m and 26.69mN/m to <9mN/m, respectively within 24h. These bacterial biosurfactants may be utilized for bioremediation of oil-spills.

Keywords: Bioremediation, biosurfactant, hydrocarbon pollution, spore-forming bacteria.

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Authors: H. Baazaoui Zghal, S. Faiz, H. Ben Ghezala

Abstract:

Data mining is an extraordinarily demanding field referring to extraction of implicit knowledge and relationships, which are not explicitly stored in databases. A wide variety of methods of data mining have been introduced (classification, characterization, generalization...). Each one of these methods includes more than algorithm. A system of data mining implies different user categories,, which mean that the user-s behavior must be a component of the system. The problem at this level is to know which algorithm of which method to employ for an exploratory end, which one for a decisional end, and how can they collaborate and communicate. Agent paradigm presents a new way of conception and realizing of data mining system. The purpose is to combine different algorithms of data mining to prepare elements for decision-makers, benefiting from the possibilities offered by the multi-agent systems. In this paper the agent framework for data mining is introduced, and its overall architecture and functionality are presented. The validation is made on spatial data. Principal results will be presented.

Keywords: Databases, data mining, multi-agent, spatial datamart.

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Authors: M. Shanmugapriya, M. A. Maluk Mohamed, J. William

Abstract:

A wireless sensor network (WSN) is a collection of sensor nodes organized into a cooperative network. These nodes communicate through a wireless antenna. Reduction in physical size and multiband operation is an important requirement of WSN antenna. Fractal antenna is used for miniaturization and multiband operation. The self-similar or self-affine and space filling property of fractal geometry increases the effective electrical length of the antenna, reduces the size and make them frequency independent. This paper elaborates on Dual band fractal antenna with Coplanar Waveguide (CPW) feed for WSN. The proposed antenna is designed on a FR4 substrate with the dimension of 27mm x 28.5mm x 1.6mm, resonates at 2.4GHz and 5.2GHz with a return loss less than -10dB. The design and simulation process is carried out using IE3D simulation software. The simulated and measured results are found in good agreement.

Keywords: CPW, Fractal, Iterations, Miniaturization, Space filling, Self Similar, WSN, WLAN.

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Authors: Neven Vrček, Goran Bubaš, Neven Bosilj

Abstract:

Location-based services (LBS) exploit the known location of a user to provide services dependent on their geographic context and personalized needs [1]. The development and arrival of broadband mobile data networks supported with mobile terminals equipped with new location technologies like GPS have finally created opportunities for implementation of LBS applications. But, from the other side, collecting location information data in general raises privacy concerns. This paper presents results from two surveys of LBS acceptance in Croatia. The first survey was administered on 181 students, and the second extended survey involved pattern of 180 Croatian citizens. We developed questionnaire which consists of descriptions of 15 different applications with scale which measures perceptions and attitudes of users towards these applications. We report the results to identify potential commercial applications for LBS in B2C segment. Our findings suggest that some types of applications like emergency&safety services and navigation have significantly higher rate of acceptance than other types.

Keywords: Acceptance, location-based services, m-application.

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Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, T.A. Abdullah

Abstract:

The exploration of this paper will focus on the Cshaped transition curve. This curve is designed by using the concept of circle to circle where one circle lies inside other. The degree of smoothness employed is curvature continuity. The function used in designing the C-curve is Bézier-like cubic function. This function has a low degree, flexible for the interactive design of curves and surfaces and has a shape parameter. The shape parameter is used to control the C-shape curve. Once the C-shaped curve design is completed, this curve will be applied to design spur gear tooth. After the tooth design procedure is finished, the design will be analyzed by using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This analysis is used to find out the applicability of the tooth design and the gear material that chosen. In this research, Cast Iron 4.5 % Carbon, ASTM A-48 is selected as a gear material.

Keywords: Bézier-like cubic function, Curvature continuity, Cshapedtransition curve, Spur gear tooth.

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Authors: Laveen Sundararaj, Palanisamy Vellaiyan

Abstract:

Delay and Disruption Tolerant Networking is part of the Inter Planetary Internet with primary application being Deep Space Networks. Its Terrestrial form has interesting research applications such as Alagappa University Delay Tolerant Water Monitoring Network which doubles as test beds for improvising its routing scheme. DTNs depend on node mobility to deliver packets using a store-carry-and forward paradigm. Throwboxes are small and inexpensive stationary devices equipped with wireless interfaces and storage. We propose the use of Throwboxes to enhance the contact opportunities of the nodes and hence improve the Throughput. The enhancement is evaluated using Alunivdtnsim, a desktop simulator in C language and the results are graphically presented.

Keywords: Alunivdtnsim – Alagappa University Delay TolerantNetwork Simulator, AUDTWMN- Alagappa University DelayTolerant Water Monitoring Network, DTN - Delay and DisruptionTolerant Networking, LTP – Lick Lider Transmission Protocol.

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Authors: Mada Sanjaya, Halimatussadiyah, Dian Syah Maulana

Abstract:

The nonlinear chaotic non-autonomous fourth order system is algebraically simple but can generate complex chaotic attractors. In this paper, non-autonomous fourth order chaotic oscillator circuits were designed and simulated. Also chaotic nonautonomous Attractor is addressed suitable for chaotic masking communication circuits using Matlab® and MultiSIM® programs. We have demonstrated in simulations that chaos can be synchronized and applied to signal masking communications. We suggest that this phenomenon of chaos synchronism may serve as the basis for little known chaotic non-autonomous Attractor to achieve signal masking communication applications. Simulation results are used to visualize and illustrate the effectiveness of non-autonomous chaotic system in signal masking. All simulations results performed on nonautonomous chaotic system are verify the applicable of secure communication.

Keywords: Bidirectional chaotic synchronization, double bellattractor, secure communication

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Authors: H. Nikzad, S. Yoshitomi

Abstract:

In this paper, an optimization procedure is applied for 3D Reinforced concrete building structure with shear wall.  In the optimization problem, cross sections of beams, columns and shear wall dimensions are considered as design variables and the optimal cross sections can be derived to minimize the total cost of the structure. As for final design application, the most suitable sections are selected to satisfy ACI 318-14 code provision based on static linear analysis. The validity of the method is examined through numerical example of 15 storied 3D RC building with shear wall.  This optimization method is expected to assist in providing a useful reference in design early stage, and to be an effective and powerful tool for structural design of RC shear wall structures.

Keywords: Structural optimization, linear static analysis, ETABS, MATLAB, RC moment frame, RC shear wall structures.

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Authors: Nicoletta Adamo-Villani, Gerardo Beni, Jeremy White

Abstract:

We introduce, a new interactive 3D simulation system of ocular motion and expressions suitable for: (1) character animation applications to game design, film production, HCI (Human Computer Interface), conversational animated agents, and virtual reality; (2) medical applications (ophthalmic neurological and muscular pathologies: research and education); and (3) real time simulation of unconscious cognitive and emotional responses (for use, e.g., in psychological research). The system is comprised of: (1) a physiologically accurate parameterized 3D model of the eyes, eyelids, and eyebrow regions; and (2) a prototype device for realtime control of eye motions and expressions, including unconsciously produced expressions, for application as in (1), (2), and (3) above. The 3D eye simulation system, created using state-of-the-art computer animation technology and 'optimized' for use with an interactive and web deliverable platform, is, to our knowledge, the most advanced/realistic available so far for applications to character animation and medical pedagogy.

Keywords: 3D animation, HCI, medical simulation, ocularmotion and expression.

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Authors: F. Rotaru, S. Bejinariu, C. D. Niţâ, R. Luca, I. Pâvâloi, C. Lazâr

Abstract:

The paper presents a technique suitable in robot vision applications where it is not possible to establish the object position from one view. Usually, one view pose calculation methods are based on the correspondence of image features established at a training step and exactly the same image features extracted at the execution step, for a different object pose. When such a correspondence is not feasible because of the lack of specific features a new method is proposed. In the first step the method computes from two views the 3D pose of feature points. Subsequently, using a registration algorithm, the set of 3D feature points extracted at the execution phase is aligned with the set of 3D feature points extracted at the training phase. The result is a Euclidean transform which have to be used by robot head for reorientation at execution step.

Keywords: features correspondence, registration algorithm, robot vision, triangulation method.

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Authors: Hemashree Bordoloi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

Abstract:

Rotation or tilt present in an image capture by digital means can be detected and corrected using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for application with a Face Recognition System (FRS). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features of faces at different angles are used to train an ANN which detects the rotation for an input image and corrected using a set of operations implemented using another system based on ANN. The work also deals with the recognition of human faces with features from the foreheads, eyes, nose and mouths as decision support entities of the system configured using a Generalized Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (GFFANN). These features are combined to provide a reinforced decision for verification of a person-s identity despite illumination variations. The complete system performing facial image rotation detection, correction and recognition using re-enforced decision support provides a success rate in the higher 90s.

Keywords: Rotation, Face, Recognition, ANN.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R. N. Pralhad

Abstract:

We estimate snow velocity and snow drift density on hilly terrain under the assumption that the drifting snow mass can be represented using a micro-continuum approach (i.e. using a nonclassical mechanics approach assuming a class of fluids for which basic equations of mass, momentum and energy have been derived). In our model, the theory of coupled stress fluids proposed by Stokes [1] has been employed for the computation of flow parameters. Analyses of bulk drift velocity, drift density, drift transport and mass transport of snow particles have been carried out and computations made, considering various parametric effects. Results are compared with those of classical mechanics (logarithmic wind profile). The results indicate that particle size affects the flow characteristics significantly.

Keywords: Snow velocity, snow drift density, mass transport of snow particles, snow avalanche.

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Authors: Zainul Huda

Abstract:

This presentation reviews recent advances in superalloys and thermal barrier coating (TBC) for application in hot sections of energy-efficient gas-turbine engines. It has been reviewed that in the modern combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) applying single-crystal energy materials (SC superalloys) and thermal barrier coatings (TBC), and – in one design – closed-loop steam cooling, thermal efficiency can reach more than 60%. These technological advancements contribute to profitable and clean power generation with reduced emission. Alternatively, the use of advanced superalloys (e.g. GTD-111 superalloy, Allvac 718Plus superalloy) and advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in modern gas-turbines has been shown to yield higher energy-efficiency in power generation.

Keywords: Energy materials, gas turbine engines, superalloy, thermal barrier coating

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Authors: V. Arbabi , I. Ebrahimzadeh, H. Ghanbari, M.M. Kaykha

Abstract:

Horizontal continuous casting is widely used to produce semi-finished non-Ferrous products. Homogeneity in the metallurgical characteristics and mechanical properties for this product is vital for industrial application. In the present work, the microstructure and mechanical properties of a horizontal continuous cast two-phase brass billet have been studied. Impact strength and hardness variations were examined and the phase composition and porosity studied with image analysis software. Distinct differences in mechanical properties were observed between the upper, middle and lower parts of the billet, which are explained in terms of the morphology and size of the phase in the microstructure. Hardness variation in the length of billet is higher in upper area but impact strength is higher in lower areas.

Keywords: Horizontal Continuous Casting, Two-phase brasses, CuZn40Al1 alloy, Microstructure, Impact Strength.

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Authors: Widodo Budiharto, Michael Yoseph Ricky, Ro'fah Nur Rachmawati

Abstract:

The rapid development of the BlackBerry games industry and its development goals were not just for entertainment, but also used for educational of students interactively. Unfortunately the development of adaptive educational games on BlackBerry in Indonesian language that interesting and entertaining for learning process is very limited. This paper shows the research of development of novel adaptive educational games for students who can adjust the difficulty level of games based on the ability of the user, so that it can motivate students to continue to play these games. We propose a method where these games can adjust the level of difficulty, based on the assessment of the results of previous problems using neural networks with three inputs in the form of percentage correct, the speed of answer and interest mode of games (animation / lessons) and 1 output. The experimental results are presented and show the adaptive games are running well on mobile devices based on BlackBerry platform

Keywords: Adaptive games, neural networks, mobile games, BlackBerry

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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