Search results for: carbon trading volume
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 32931

Search results for: carbon trading volume

31221 Evolutionary Cobreeding of Cooperative and Competitive Subcultures

Authors: Emilia Nercissians

Abstract:

Neoclassical and functionalist explanations of self organization in multiagent systems have been criticized on several accounts including unrealistic explication of overadapted agents and failure to resolve problems of externality. The paper outlines a more elaborate and dynamic model that is capable of resolving these dilemmas. An illustrative example where behavioral diversity is cobred in a repeated nonzero sum task via evolutionary computing is presented.

Keywords: evolutionary stability, externalities, neofunctionalism, prisoners' dilemma.

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31220 Precise Measurement of Displacement using Pixels

Authors: Razif Mahadi, John Billingsley

Abstract:

Manufacturing processes demand tight dimensional tolerances. The paper concerns a transducer for precise measurement of displacement, based on a camera containing a linescan chip. When tests were conducted using a track of black and white stripes with a 2mm pitch, errors in measuring on individual cycle amounted to 1.75%, suggesting that a precision of 35 microns is achievable.

Keywords: Linescan, microcontroller, pixels.

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31219 Social Aggravations during the Period of Medieval Wars in Europe

Authors: Nurmukhambetov Ardak

Abstract:

This article makes and attempt to disclose the dynamics of development of social interactions in an aggravated environment in relation to the distinctive features of religious wars and their negative impact to the society. Crisis situations that took place in all spheres of social life are described, on the grounds of which the author comes to specific conclusions.

Keywords: War, medieval period, social relations, nation, Europe.

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31218 A Failure Criterion for Unsupported Boreholes in Poorly Cemented Granular Formations

Authors: Sam S. Hashemi

Abstract:

The breakage of bonding between sand particles and their dislodgment from the borehole wall are among the main factors resulting in a borehole failure in poorly cemented granular formations. The grain debonding usually precedes the borehole failure and it can be considered as a sign that the onset of the borehole collapse is imminent. Detecting the bonding breakage point and introducing an appropriate failure criterion will play an important role in borehole stability analysis. To study the influence of different factors on the initiation of sand bonding breakage at the borehole wall, a series of laboratory tests was designed and conducted on poorly cemented sand samples. The total absorbed strain energy per volume of material up to the point of the observed particle debonding was computed. The results indicated that the particle bonding breakage point at the borehole wall was reached both before and after the peak strength of the thick-walled hollow cylinder specimens depending on the stress path and cement content. Three different cement contents and two borehole sizes were investigated to study the influence of the bonding strength and scale on the particle dislodgment. Test results showed that the stress path has a significant influence on the onset of the sand bonding breakage. It was shown that for various stress paths, there is a near linear relationship between the absorbed energy and the normal effective mean stress.

Keywords: Borehole stability, experimental studies, total strain energy, poorly cemented sands, particle bonding breakage.

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31217 Quadrotor Black-Box System Identification

Authors: Ionel Stanculeanu, Theodor Borangiu

Abstract:

This paper presents a new approach in the identification of the quadrotor dynamic model using a black-box system for identification. Also the paper considers the problems which appear during the identification in the closed-loop and offers a technical solution for overcoming the correlation between the input noise present in the output

Keywords: System identification, UAV, prediction error method, quadrotor.

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31216 Preparation of Fe3Si/Ferrite Micro- and Nano-Powder Composite

Authors: R. Bures, M. Streckova, M. Faberova, P. Kurek

Abstract:

Composite material based on Fe3Si micro-particles and Mn-Zn nano-ferrite was prepared using powder metallurgy technology. The sol-gel followed by autocombustion process was used for synthesis of Mn0.8Zn0.2Fe2O4 ferrite. 3 wt.% of mechanically milled ferrite was mixed with Fe3Si powder alloy. Mixed micro-nano powder system was homogenized by the Resonant Acoustic Mixing using ResodynLabRAM Mixer. This non-invasive homogenization technique was used to preserve spherical morphology of Fe3Si powder particles. Uniaxial cold pressing in the closed die at pressure 600 MPa was applied to obtain a compact sample. Microwave sintering of green compact was realized at 800°C, 20 minutes, in air. Density of the powders and composite was measured by Hepycnometry. Impulse excitation method was used to measure elastic properties of sintered composite. Mechanical properties were evaluated by measurement of transverse rupture strength (TRS) and Vickers hardness (HV). Resistivity was measured by 4 point probe method. Ferrite phase distribution in volume of the composite was documented by metallographic analysis. It has been found that nano-ferrite particle distributed among micro- particles of Fe3Si powder alloy led to high relative density (~93%) and suitable mechanical properties (TRS >100 MPa, HV ~1GPa, E-modulus ~140 GPa) of the composite. High electric resistivity (R~6.7 ohm.cm) of prepared composite indicate their potential application as soft magnetic material at medium and high frequencies.

Keywords: Micro- and nano-composite, soft magnetic materials, microwave sintering, mechanical and electric properties.

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31215 Applications of Support Vector Machines on Smart Phone Systems for Emotional Speech Recognition

Authors: Wernhuar Tarng, Yuan-Yuan Chen, Chien-Lung Li, Kun-Rong Hsie, Mingteh Chen

Abstract:

An emotional speech recognition system for the applications on smart phones was proposed in this study to combine with 3G mobile communications and social networks to provide users and their groups with more interaction and care. This study developed a mechanism using the support vector machines (SVM) to recognize the emotions of speech such as happiness, anger, sadness and normal. The mechanism uses a hierarchical classifier to adjust the weights of acoustic features and divides various parameters into the categories of energy and frequency for training. In this study, 28 commonly used acoustic features including pitch and volume were proposed for training. In addition, a time-frequency parameter obtained by continuous wavelet transforms was also used to identify the accent and intonation in a sentence during the recognition process. The Berlin Database of Emotional Speech was used by dividing the speech into male and female data sets for training. According to the experimental results, the accuracies of male and female test sets were increased by 4.6% and 5.2% respectively after using the time-frequency parameter for classifying happy and angry emotions. For the classification of all emotions, the average accuracy, including male and female data, was 63.5% for the test set and 90.9% for the whole data set.

Keywords: Smart phones, emotional speech recognition, socialnetworks, support vector machines, time-frequency parameter, Mel-scale frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC).

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31214 Improvement of Stator Slot Structure based on Insulation Stresses Analysis in HV Generator

Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

High voltage generators are being subject to higher voltage rating and are being designed to operate in harsh conditions. Stator windings are the main component of generators in which Electrical, magnetical and thermal stresses remain major failures for insulation degradation accelerated aging. A large number of generators failed due to stator winding problems, mainly insulation deterioration. Insulation degradation assessment plays vital role in the asset life management. Mostly the stator failure is catastrophic causing significant damage to the plant. Other than generation loss, stator failure involves heavy repair or replacement cost. Electro thermal analysis is the main characteristic for improvement design of stator slot-s insulation. Dielectric parameters such as insulation thickness, spacing, material types, geometry of winding and slot are major design consideration. A very powerful method available to analyze electro thermal performance is Finite Element Method (FEM) which is used in this paper. The analysis of various stator coil and slot configurations are used to design the better dielectric system to reduce electrical and thermal stresses in order to increase the power of generator in the same volume of core. This paper describes the process used to perform classical design and improvement analysis of stator slot-s insulation.

Keywords: Electrical field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method, electro thermal

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31213 Roundabout Optimal Entry and Circulating Flow Induced by Road Hump

Authors: Amir Hossein Pakshir, A. Hossein Pour, N. Jahandar, Ali Paydar

Abstract:

Roundabout work on the principle of circulation and entry flows, where the maximum entry flow rates depend largely on circulating flow bearing in mind that entry flows must give away to circulating flows. Where an existing roundabout has a road hump installed at the entry arm, it can be hypothesized that the kinematics of vehicles may prevent the entry arm from achieving optimum performance. Road humps are traffic calming devices placed across road width solely as speed reduction mechanism. They are the preferred traffic calming option in Malaysia and often used on single and dual carriageway local routes. The speed limit on local routes is 30mph (50 km/hr). Road humps in their various forms achieved the biggest mean speed reduction (based on a mean speed before traffic calming of 30mph) of up to 10mph or 16 km/hr according to the UK Department of Transport. The underlying aim of reduced speed should be to achieve a 'safe' distribution of speeds which reflects the function of the road and the impacts on the local community. Constraining safe distribution of speeds may lead to poor drivers timing and delayed reflex reaction that can probably cause accident. Previous studies on road hump impact have focused mainly on speed reduction, traffic volume, noise and vibrations, discomfort and delay from the use of road humps. The paper is aimed at optimal entry and circulating flow induced by road humps. Results show that roundabout entry and circulating flow perform better in circumstances where there is no road hump at entrance.

Keywords: Road hump, Roundabout, Speed Reduction

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31212 The Distance between a Point and a Bezier Curveon a Bezier Surface

Authors: Wen-Haw Chen, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

The distance between two objects is an important problem in CAGD, CAD and CG etc. It will be presented in this paper that a simple and quick method to estimate the distance between a point and a Bezier curve on a Bezier surface.

Keywords: Geodesic-like curve, distance, projection, Bezier.

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31211 LOWL: Logic and OWL, an Extension

Authors: M. Mohsenzadeh, F. Shams, M. Teshnehlab

Abstract:

Current research on semantic web aims at making intelligent web pages meaningful for machines. In this way, ontology plays a primary role. We believe that logic can help ontology languages (such as OWL) to be more fluent and efficient. In this paper we try to combine logic with OWL to reduce some disadvantages of this language. Therefore we extend OWL by logic and also show how logic can satisfy our future expectations of an ontology language.

Keywords: Logical Programming, OWL, Language Extension.

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31210 Reputation and Transparency of Cooperative Movement in Malaysia

Authors: Maslinawati Mohamad, Intan Waheedah Othman

Abstract:

This paper studies the reputation and transparency of cooperative movement in Malaysia.

Keywords: Cooperative movement, reputation, transparency, web presence.

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31209 Molecular Dynamics Simulation of the Effect of the Solid Gas Interface Nanolayer on Enhanced Thermal Conductivity of Copper-CO2 Nanofluid

Authors: Zeeshan Ahmed, Ajinkya Sarode, Pratik Basarkar, Atul Bhargav, Debjyoti Banerjee

Abstract:

The use of CO2 in oil recovery and in CO2 capture and storage is gaining traction in recent years. These applications involve heat transfer between CO2 and the base fluid, and hence, there arises a need to improve the thermal conductivity of CO2 to increase the process efficiency and reduce cost. One way to improve the thermal conductivity is through nanoparticle addition in the base fluid. The nanofluid model in this study consisted of copper (Cu) nanoparticles in varying concentrations with CO2 as a base fluid. No experimental data are available on thermal conductivity of CO2 based nanofluid. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are an increasingly adopted tool to perform preliminary assessments of nanoparticle (NP) fluid interactions. In this study, the effect of the formation of a nanolayer (or molecular layering) at the gas-solid interface on thermal conductivity is investigated using equilibrium MD simulations by varying NP diameter and keeping the volume fraction (1.413%) of nanofluid constant to check the diameter effect of NP on the nanolayer and thermal conductivity. A dense semi-solid fluid layer was seen to be formed at the NP-gas interface, and the thickness increases with increase in particle diameter, which also moves with the NP Brownian motion. Density distribution has been done to see the effect of nanolayer, and its thickness around the NP. These findings are extremely beneficial, especially to industries employed in oil recovery as increased thermal conductivity of CO2 will lead to enhanced oil recovery and thermal energy storage.

Keywords: Copper-CO2 nanofluid, molecular interfacial layer, thermal conductivity, molecular dynamic simulation.

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31208 Urban Air Pollution – Trend and Forecasting of Major Pollutants by Timeseries Analysis

Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

Abstract:

The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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31207 Design and Performance Comparison of Metamaterial Based Antenna for 4G/5G Mobile Devices

Authors: Jalal Khan, Daniyal Ali Sehrai, Shakeel Ahmad

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and performance evaluation of multiband metamaterial based antenna operating in the 3.6 GHz (4G), 14.33 GHz, and 28.86 GHz (5G) frequency bands, for future mobile and handheld devices. The radiating element of the proposed design is made up of a conductive material supported by a 1.524 mm thicker Rogers-4003 substrate, having a relative dielectric constant and loss tangent of 3.55 and 0.0027, respectively. The substrate is backed by truncated ground plane. The future mobile communication system is based on higher frequencies, which are highly affected by the atmospheric conditions. Therefore, to overcome the path loss problem, essential enhancements and improvements must be made in the overall performance of the antenna. The traditional ground plane does not provide the in-phase reflection and surface wave suppression due to which side and back lobes are produced. This will affect the antenna performance in terms of gain and efficiency. To enhance the overall performance of the antenna, a metamaterial acting as a high impedance surface (HIS) is used as a reflector in the proposed design. The simulated gain of the metamaterial based antenna is enhanced from {2.76-6.47, 4.83-6.71 and 7.52-7.73} dB at 3.6, 14.33 and 28.89 GHz, respectively relative to the gain of the antenna backed by a traditional ground plane. The proposed antenna radiated efficiently with a radiated efficiency (>85 %) in all the three frequency bands with and without metamaterial surface. The total volume of the antenna is (L x W x h=45 x 40 x 1.524) mm3. The antenna can be potentially used for wireless handheld devices and mobile terminal. All the simulations have been performed using the Computer Simulation Technology (CST) software.

Keywords: Multiband, fourth generation (4G), fifth generation (5G), metamaterial, CST MWS.

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31206 Miniaturization of a Rectangular Microstrip Patch Antenna Loaded with Metamaterial

Authors: Anahita Ghaznavi Jahromi, Farzad Mohajeri, Nooshin Feiz

Abstract:

In this paper a novel structure of metamaterial is proposed in order to miniaturize a rectangular microstrip patch antenna. The metamaterial is composed of two nested split octagons which are located on a 10 mm

Keywords: Metamaterial, miniaturization, patch antenna, sub- wavelength resonance.

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31205 Solving Linear Matrix Equations by Matrix Decompositions

Authors: Yongxin Yuan, Kezheng Zuo

Abstract:

In this paper, a system of linear matrix equations is considered. A new necessary and sufficient condition for the consistency of the equations is derived by means of the generalized singular-value decomposition, and the explicit representation of the general solution is provided.

Keywords: Matrix equation, Generalized inverse, Generalized singular-value decomposition.

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31204 Influence of Sr(BO2)2 Doping on Superconducting Properties of (Bi,Pb)-2223 Phase

Authors: N. G. Margiani, I. G. Kvartskhava, G. A. Mumladze, Z. A. Adamia

Abstract:

Chemical doping with different elements and compounds at various amounts represents the most suitable approach to improve the superconducting properties of bismuth-based superconductors for technological applications. In this paper, the influence of partial substitution of Sr(BO2)2 for SrO on the phase formation kinetics and transport properties of (Bi,Pb)-2223 HTS has been studied for the first time. Samples with nominal composition Bi1.7Pb0.3Sr2-xCa2Cu3Oy[Sr(BO2)2]x, x=0, 0.0375, 0.075, 0.15, 0.25, were prepared by the standard solid state processing. The appropriate mixtures were calcined at 845 oC for 40 h. The resulting materials were pressed into pellets and annealed at 837 oC for 30 h in air. Superconducting properties of undoped (reference) and Sr(BO2)2-doped (Bi,Pb)-2223 compounds were investigated through X-ray diffraction (XRD), resistivity (ρ) and transport critical current density (Jc) measurements. The surface morphology changes in the prepared samples were examined by scanning electron microscope (SEM). XRD and Jc studies have shown that the low level Sr(BO2)2 doping (x=0.0375-0.075) to the Sr-site promotes the formation of high-Tc phase and leads to the enhancement of current carrying capacity in (Bi,Pb)-2223 HTS. The doped sample with x=0.0375 has the best performance compared to other prepared samples. The estimated volume fraction of (Bi,Pb)-2223 phase increases from ~25 % for reference specimen to ~70 % for x=0.0375. Moreover, strong increase in the self-field Jc value was observed for this dopant amount (Jc=340 A/cm2), compared to an undoped sample (Jc=110 A/cm2). Pronounced enhancement of superconducting properties of (Bi,Pb)-2223 superconductor can be attributed to the acceleration of high-Tc phase formation as well as the improvement of inter-grain connectivity by small amounts of Sr(BO2)2 dopant.

Keywords: Bismuth-based superconductor, critical current density, phase formation, Sr(BO2)2 doping.

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31203 The Role of Ideophones: Phonological and Morphological Characteristics in Literature

Authors: Cristina Bahón Arnaiz

Abstract:

Many Asian languages, such as Korean and Japanese, are well-known for their wide use of sound symbolic words or ideophones. This is a very particular characteristic which enriches its lexicon hugely. Ideophones are a class of sound symbolic words that utilize sound symbolism to express aspects, states, emotions, or conditions that can be experienced through the senses, such as shape, color, smell, action or movement. Ideophones have very particular characteristics in terms of sound symbolism and morphology, which distinguish them from other words. The phonological characteristics of ideophones are vowel ablaut or vowel gradation and consonant mutation. In the case of Korean, there are light vowels and dark vowels. Depending on the type of vowel that is used, the meaning will slightly change. Consonant mutation, also known as consonant ablaut, contributes to the level of intensity, emphasis, and volume of an expression. In addition to these phonological characteristics, there is one main morphological singularity, which is reduplication and it carries the meaning of continuity, repetition, intensity, emphasis, and plurality. All these characteristics play an important role in both linguistics and literature as they enhance the meaning of what is trying to be expressed with incredible semantic detail, expressiveness, and rhythm. The following study will analyze the ideophones used in a single paragraph of a Korean novel, which add incredible yet subtle detail to the meaning of the words, and advance the expressiveness and rhythm of the text. The results from analyzing one paragraph from a novel, after presenting the phonological and morphological characteristics of Korean ideophones, will evidence the important role that ideophones play in literature. 

Keywords: Ideophones, mimetic words, phonomimes, phenomimes, psychomimes, sound symbolism.

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31202 OSGi in Cloud Environments

Authors: Irina Astrova, Arne Koschel, Björn Siekmann, Mark Starrach, Christopher Tebbe, StefanWolf, Marc Schaaf

Abstract:

This paper deals with the combination of OSGi and cloud computing. Both technologies are mainly placed in the field of distributed computing. Therefore, it is discussed how different approaches from different institutions work. In addition, the approaches are compared to each other.

Keywords: Cloud computing, OSGi, distributed environments.

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31201 On 6-Figures in Finite Klingenberg Planes of Parameters (p2k-1, p)

Authors: Atilla Akpinar, Basri Celik, Suleyman Ciftci

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with finite projective Klingenberg plane M (A) coordinatized by local ring A := Zq+Zq E (where prime power q = p', e0 Z q and 62 = 0). So, we get some combinatorical results on 6-figures. For example, we show that there exist p — 1 6-figure classes in M(A).

Keywords: finite Klingenberg plane, 6-figure, ratio of 6-figure, cross-ratio.

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31200 On the Solution of the Towers of Hanoi Problem

Authors: Hayedeh Ahrabian, Comfar Badamchi, Abbass Nowzari-Dalini

Abstract:

In this paper, two versions of an iterative loopless algorithm for the classical towers of Hanoi problem with O(1) storage complexity and O(2n) time complexity are presented. Based on this algorithm the number of different moves in each of pegs with its direction is formulated.

Keywords: Loopless algorithm, Binary tree, Towers of Hanoi.

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31199 A Concept of Rational Water Management at Local Utilities – The Use of RO for Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment/Reuse

Authors: N. Matveev, A. Pervov

Abstract:

Local utilities often face problems of local industrial wastes, storm water disposal due to existing strict regulations. For many local industries, the problem of wastewater treatment and discharge into surface reservoirs can’t be solved through the use of conventional biological treatment techniques. Current discharge standards require very strict removal of a number of impurities such as ammonia, nitrates, phosphate, etc. To reach this level of removal, expensive reagents and sorbents are used. The modern concept of rational water resources management requires the development of new efficient techniques that provide wastewater treatment and reuse. As RO membranes simultaneously reject all dissolved impurities such as BOD, TDS, ammonia, phosphates etc., they become very attractive for the direct treatment of wastewater without biological stage. To treat wastewater, specially designed membrane "open channel" modules are used that do not possess "dead areas" that cause fouling or require pretreatment. A solution to RO concentrate disposal problem is presented that consists of reducing of initial wastewater volume by 100 times. Concentrate is withdrawn from membrane unit as sludge moisture. The efficient use of membrane RO techniques is connected with a salt balance in water system. Thus, to provide high ecological efficiency of developed techniques, all components of water supply and wastewater discharge systems should be accounted for.

Keywords: Reverse osmosis, stormwater treatment, openchannel module, wastewater reuse.

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31198 Sediment Transport Experiments: The Influence of the Furrow Geometry

Authors: S. Haddad, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

In this experimental work, we have shown that the geometric shape of the grooves (furrows) plays an important role in sediment dynamics. In addition, the rheological behaviour of solid discharge does not depend only on the velocity discharge but also on the geometric shape.

Keywords: Laboratory experiments, soil erosion, groove, furrow, sediment transport

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31197 Group of Square Roots of Unity Modulo n

Authors: Rochdi Omami, Mohamed Omami, Raouf Ouni

Abstract:

Let n ≥ 3 be an integer and G2(n) be the subgroup of square roots of 1 in (Z/nZ)*. In this paper, we give an algorithm that computes a generating set of this subgroup.

Keywords: Group, modulo, square roots, unity.

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31196 Intelligent Solutions for Umbrella Systems in Telecommunication Supervision Systems

Authors: K. P. Csányi, L. T. Kóczy, D. Tikk

Abstract:

This paper indicate the importance of telecommunications supervision systems (TSS), integrating heterogeneous TSS into single system thru umbrella systems, introduces the structure, features, requirements of TSS and TSS related intelligent solutions.

Keywords: Telecommunication, telecommunication supervisionsystems, umbrella systems

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31195 Iterative Methods for An Inverse Problem

Authors: Minghui Wang, Shanrui Hu

Abstract:

An inverse problem of doubly center matrices is discussed. By translating the constrained problem into unconstrained problem, two iterative methods are proposed. A numerical example illustrate our algorithms.

Keywords: doubly center matrix, electric network theory, iterative methods, least-square problem.

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31194 The Number of Rational Points on Singular Curvesy 2 = x(x - a)2 over Finite Fields Fp

Authors: Ahmet Tekcan

Abstract:

Let p ≥ 5 be a prime number and let Fp be a finite field. In this work, we determine the number of rational points on singular curves Ea : y2 = x(x - a)2 over Fp for some specific values of a.

Keywords: Singular curve, elliptic curve, rational points.

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31193 On the Fp-Normal Subgroups of Finite Groups

Authors: Shitian Liu, Deqin Chen

Abstract:

Let G be a finite group, and let F be a formation of finite group. We say that a subgroup H of G is p F -normal in G if there exists a normal subgroup T of G such that HT is a permutable Hall subgroup of G and G G (H

Keywords: Finite group, Fp -normal subgroup, Sylowsubgroup, Maximal subgroup

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31192 The Design of a Vehicle Traffic Flow Prediction Model for a Gauteng Freeway Based on an Ensemble of Multi-Layer Perceptron

Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

Abstract:

The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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