Search results for: ordered fuzzy point

Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

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Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

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Authors: Young-Lim Choi, Nak-Yun Choi, Jae-Yong Seo, Sang-Il Park, Jong-Wook Kim

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This paper proposes a prototype of a lower-limb rehabilitation system for recovering and strengthening patients- injured lower limbs. The system is composed of traction motors for each leg position, a treadmill as a walking base, tension sensors, microcontrollers controlling motor functions and a main system with graphic user interface. For derivation of reference or normal velocity profiles of the body segment point, kinematic method is applied based on the humanoid robot model using the reference joint angle data of normal walking.

Keywords: Rehabilitation, lower limb, treadmill, humanoid robot.

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Authors: A. Youseef

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IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX) aims to present high speed wireless access to cover wide range coverage. The base station (BS) and the subscriber station (SS) are the main parts of WiMAX. WiMAX uses either Point-to-Multipoint (PMP) or mesh topologies. In the PMP mode, the SSs connect to the BS to gain access to the network. However, in the mesh mode, the SSs connect to each other to gain access to the BS. The main components of QoS management in the 802.16 standard are the admission control, buffer management and packet scheduling. In this paper, we use QualNet 5.0.2 to study the performance of different scheduling schemes, such as WFQ, SCFQ, RR and SP when the numbers of SSs increase. We find that when the number of SSs increases, the average jitter and average end-to-end delay is increased and the throughput is reduced.

Keywords: WiMAX, Scheduling Scheme, QoS, QualNet.

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Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

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The paper deals with the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the Burr type V distribution based on left censored samples. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the parameters have been derived and the Fisher information matrix for the parameters of the said distribution has been obtained explicitly. The confidence intervals for the parameters have also been discussed. A simulation study has been conducted to investigate the performance of the point and interval estimates.

Keywords: Fisher information matrix, confidence intervals, censoring.

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Authors: Trung-Kien Pham, Yoonsu Nam, Hyungun Kim, Jaehoon Son

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This paper addresses linear quadratic regulation (LQR) for variable speed variable pitch wind turbines. Because of the inherent nonlinearity of wind turbine, a set of operating conditions is identified and then a LQR controller is designed for each operating point. The feedback controller gains are then interpolated linearly to get control law for the entire operating region. Besides, the aerodynamic torque and effective wind speed are estimated online to get the gain-scheduling variable for implementing the controller. The potential of the method is verified through simulation with the help of MATLAB/Simulink and GH Bladed. The performance and mechanical load when using LQR are also compared with that when using PI controller.

Keywords: variable speed variable pitch wind turbine, multi-MW size wind turbine, wind energy conversion system, LQR control.

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Authors: Guruprasad Khataniar, Hitesh Tahbildar, Prakriti Prava Das

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There are various overlay structures that provide efficient and scalable solutions for point and range query in a peer-topeer network. Overlay structure based on m-Binary Search Tree (BST) is one such popular technique. It deals with the division of the tree into different key intervals and then assigning the key intervals to a BST. The popularity of the BST makes this overlay structure vulnerable to different kinds of attacks. Here we present four such possible attacks namely index poisoning attack, eclipse attack, pollution attack and syn flooding attack. The functionality of BST is affected by these attacks. We also provide different security techniques that can be applied against these attacks.

Keywords: BST, eclipse attack, index poisoning attack, pollution attack, syn flooding attack.

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Authors: Yanping Liao, Zenan Wu, Ruigang Zhao

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Frequency diverse array (FDA) beamforming is a technology developed in recent years, and its antenna pattern has a unique angle-distance-dependent characteristic. However, the beam is always required to have strong concentration, high resolution and low sidelobe level to form the point-to-point interference in the concentrated set. In order to eliminate the angle-distance coupling of the traditional FDA and to make the beam energy more concentrated, this paper adopts a multi-carrier FDA structure based on proposed power exponential frequency offset to improve the array structure and frequency offset of the traditional FDA. The simulation results show that the beam pattern of the array can form a dot-shape beam with more concentrated energy, and its resolution and sidelobe level performance are improved. However, the covariance matrix of the signal in the traditional adaptive beamforming algorithm is estimated by the finite-time snapshot data. When the number of snapshots is limited, the algorithm has an underestimation problem, which leads to the estimation error of the covariance matrix to cause beam distortion, so that the output pattern cannot form a dot-shape beam. And it also has main lobe deviation and high sidelobe level problems in the case of limited snapshot. Aiming at these problems, an adaptive beamforming technique based on exponential correction for multi-carrier FDA is proposed to improve beamforming robustness. The steps are as follows: first, the beamforming of the multi-carrier FDA is formed under linear constrained minimum variance (LCMV) criteria. Then the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix is ​​performed to obtain the diagonal matrix composed of the interference subspace, the noise subspace and the corresponding eigenvalues. Finally, the correction index is introduced to exponentially correct the small eigenvalues ​​of the noise subspace, improve the divergence of small eigenvalues ​​in the noise subspace, and improve the performance of beamforming. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can make the multi-carrier FDA form a dot-shape beam at limited snapshots, reduce the sidelobe level, improve the robustness of beamforming, and have better performance.

Keywords: Multi-carrier frequency diverse array, adaptive beamforming, correction index, limited snapshot, robust.

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Authors: E. Taslak, C. Kocatepe, O. Arıkan, C. F. Kumru

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In insulation and cooling of power transformers various liquids are used. Mineral oils have wide availability and low cost. However, they have a poor biodegradability potential and lower fire point in comparison with other insulating liquids. Use of a liquid having high biodegradability is important due to environmental consideration. This paper investigates edible corn oil as an alternative to mineral oil. Various properties of mineral and corn oil like breakdown voltage, dissipation factor, relative dielectric constant, power loss and resistivity were measured according to different standards.

Keywords: Breakdown voltage, corn oil, dissipation factor, mineral oil, power loss, relative dielectric constant, resistivity.

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Authors: Mehrdad Ahmadi Kamarposhti, Mostafa Alinezhad

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One of the major causes of voltage instability is the reactive power limit of the system. Improving the system's reactive power handling capacity via Flexible AC transmission System (FACTS) devices is a remedy for prevention of voltage instability and hence voltage collapse. In this paper, the effects of SVC and STATCOM in Static Voltage Stability Margin Enhancement will be studied. AC and DC representations of SVC and STATCOM are used in the continuation power flow process in static voltage stability study. The IEEE-14 bus system is simulated to test the increasing loadability. It is found that these controllers significantly increase the loadability margin of power systems.

Keywords: SVC, STATCOM, Voltage Collapse, Maximum Loading Point.

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Authors: Shunsuke Miyoshi, Yasuyuki Nogami, Takuya Kusaka, Nariyoshi Yamai

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Elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem(ECDLP) is one of problems on which the security of pairing-based cryptography is based. This paper considers Pollard’s rho method to evaluate the security of ECDLP on Barreto-Naehrig(BN) curve that is an efficient pairing-friendly curve. Some techniques are proposed to make the rho method efficient. Especially, the group structure on BN curve, distinguished point method, and Montgomery trick are well-known techniques. This paper applies these techniques and shows its optimization. According to the experimental results for which a large-scale parallel system with MySQL is applied, 94-bit ECDLP was solved about 28 hours by parallelizing 71 computers.

Keywords: Pollard’s rho method, BN curve, Montgomery multiplication.

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Authors: Thomas Kampke

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Equations with differentials relating to the inverse of an unknown function rather than to the unknown function itself are solved exactly for some special cases and numerically for the general case. Invertibility combined with differentiability over connected domains forces solutions always to be monotone. Numerical function inversion is key to all solution algorithms which either are of a forward type or a fixed point type considering whole approximate solution functions in each iteration. The given considerations are restricted to ordinary differential equations with inverted functions (ODEIs) of first order. Forward type computations, if applicable, admit consistency of order one and, under an additional accuracy condition, convergence of order one.

Keywords: Euler method, fixed points, golden section, multi-step procedures, Runge Kutta methods.

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Authors: Felicitas Pielsticker, Christoph Pielsticker, Ingo Witzke

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Many people know ‘Mathematics needs practice!’ statement or similar ones from their mathematics lessons. It seems important to practice when learning mathematics. At the same time, it also seems important to practice how to learn mathematics. This paper places neuroscientific-radiological findings on “practicing” while learning mathematics in a context of mathematics education. To accomplish this, we use a literature-based discussion of our case study on practice. We want to describe neuroscientific-radiological findings in the context of mathematics education and point out stimulating connections between both perspectives. From a connective perspective we expect incentives that lead discussions in future research in the field of mathematics education.

Keywords: fMRI, education, mathematics learning, practicing.

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Authors: A. Harifi, A. Aghagolzadeh

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The main problem for recognition of handwritten Persian digits using Neural Network is to extract an appropriate feature vector from image matrix. In this research an asymmetrical segmentation pattern is proposed to obtain the feature vector. This pattern can be adjusted as an optimum model thanks to its one degree of freedom as a control point. Since any chosen algorithm depends on digit identity, a Neural Network is used to prevail over this dependence. Inputs of this Network are the moment of inertia and the center of gravity which do not depend on digit identity. Recognizing the digit is carried out using another Neural Network. Simulation results indicate the high recognition rate of 97.6% for new introduced pattern in comparison to the previous models for recognition of digits.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, Persian digits, NeuralNetwork.

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Authors: Theodosia Prodromou

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The article investigates how 14- to 15- year-olds build informal conceptions of inferential statistics as they engage in a modelling process and build their own computer simulations with dynamic statistical software. This study proposes four primary phases of informal inferential reasoning for the students in the statistical modeling and simulation process. Findings show shifts in the conceptual structures across the four phases and point to the potential of all of these phases for fostering the development of students- robust knowledge of the logic of inference when using computer based simulations to model and investigate statistical questions.

Keywords: Inferential reasoning, learning, modelling, statistical inference, simulation.

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Authors: Georgia C. Kosta, Christos S. Nicolaidis

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The present paper discusses the role of teams’ climate in the intrapreneurial process. Intrapreneurship, which corresponds for entrepreneurship in existing organizations, puts special emphasis on climate as an influential factor of the intrapreneurial behavior. Although climate exists at every level and in every subgroup of the organizational structure, research focuses mainly on the study of climate that characterizes organization as a whole. However, the climate of a work team may differ radically from the organizational climate, and in fact it can be far more influential. The paper provides a conceptual analysis of organizational climate from the intrapreneurial point of view, and sheds light upon teams’ climate role in the intrapreneurial posture.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, innovation, intrapreneurship, organizational climate, teams’ climate.

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Authors: Marco Hemmerling

Abstract:

The paper outlines the relevance of computational geometry within the design and production process of architecture. Based on two case studies, the digital chain - from the initial formfinding to the final realization of spatial concepts - is discussed in relation to geometric principles. The association with the fascinating complexity that can be found in nature and its underlying geometry was the starting point for both projects presented in the paper. The translation of abstract geometric principles into a three-dimensional digital design model – realized in Rhinoceros – was followed by a process of transformation and optimization of the initial shape that integrated aesthetic, spatial and structural qualities as well as aspects of material properties and conditions of production.

Keywords: Architecture, Computer Aided Architectural Design, 3D-Modeling, Rapid Prototyping, CAD/CAM.

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Authors: M.Somjarod, V. Tanawat, l. Weerawat

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The understanding of knee movement during swing importance for golf swing improving and preventing injury. Thirty male professional and amateur golfers were assigned to swing time by time for 3 times. Data from a vedio-based motion capture were used to compute knee joint movement variables. The results showed that professional and amateur golfers were significantly in left knee flexion angle at the impact point and mid follow through phase. Nevertheless, left knee external rotation in both groups was also significant. The right knee were no significant different in all variable. However, pattern of knee joint movement are also likely between professional and amateur golfers.

Keywords: Golfer, Knee joint, Movement, Swing

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Authors: Safeer Hussain Khan

Abstract:

In this paper, we use a one-step iteration scheme to approximate common fixed points of two quasi-asymptotically nonexpansive mappings. We prove weak and strong convergence theorems in a uniformly convex Banach space. Our results generalize the corresponding results of Yao and Chen [15] to a wider class of mappings while extend those of Khan, Abbas and Khan [4] to an improved one-step iteration scheme without any condition and improve upon many others in the literature.

Keywords: One-step iteration scheme, asymptotically quasi non expansive mapping, common fixed point, condition (a'), weak and strong convergence.

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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Authors: N. Kekelidze, B. Kvirkvelia, E. Khutsishvili, T. Qamushadze, D. Kekelidze, R. Kobaidze, Z. Chubinishvili, N. Qobulashvili, G. Kekelidze

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On the basis of InAs, InP and their InP_xAs_1-x solid solutions, the technologies were developed and materials were created where the electron concentration and optical and thermoelectric properties do not change under the irradiation with Ф = 2∙10¹⁸ n/cm² fluences of fast neutrons high-energy electrons (50 MeV, Ф = 6·10¹⁷ e/cm²) and 3 MeV electrons with fluence Ф = 3∙10¹⁸ e/cm². The problem of obtaining such material has been solved, in which under hard irradiation the mobility of the electrons does not decrease, but increases. This material is characterized by high thermal stability up to T = 700 °C. The complex process of defects formation has been analyzed and shown that, despite of hard irradiation, the essential properties of investigated materials are mainly determined by point type defects.

Keywords: InAs, InP, solid solutions, irradiation.

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Authors: M. Garcia-Alsina, J. Cobarsí

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The role of controlled vocabularies in information retrieval is broadly recognized as a relevant feature. Besides, there is a standing demand that editors and databases should consider the effective introduction of controlled vocabularies in their procedures to index scientific literature. That is especially important because information retrieval is pointed out as a significant point to drive systematic literature review. Hence, a first question emerges: Are the controlled vocabularies at this moment considered? On the other hand, subject searching in the catalogs is complex mainly due to the dichotomy between keywords from authors versus keywords based on controlled vocabularies. Finally, there is some demand to unify the terminology related to health to make easier the medical history exploitation and research. Considering these features, this paper focuses on controlled vocabularies related to the health field and their role for storing, classifying, and retrieving relevant literature. The objective is knowing which role plays the controlled vocabularies related to the health field to index and retrieve research literature in data bases such as Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus. So, this exploratory research is grounded over two research questions: 1) Which are the terms considered in specific controlled vocabularies of the health field; and 2) How papers are indexed in relevant databases to be easily retrieved, considering keywords vs specific health’ controlled vocabularies? This research takes as fieldwork the controlled vocabularies related to health and the scientific interest for 1918 flu pandemic, also known equivocally as ‘Spanish flu’. This interest has been fostered by the emergence in the early 21st of epidemics of pneumonic diseases caused by virus. Searches about and with controlled vocabularies on WoS and Scopus databases are conducted. First results of this work in progress are surprising. There are different controlled vocabularies for the health field, into which the terms collected and preferred related to ‘1918 pandemic’ are identified. To summarize, ‘Spanish influenza epidemic’ or ‘Spanish flu’ are collected as not preferred terms. The preferred terms are: ‘influenza’ or ‘influenza pandemic, 1918-1919’. Although the controlled vocabularies are clear in their election, most of the literature about ‘1918 pandemic’ is retrievable either by ‘Spanish’ or by ‘1918’ disjunct, and the dominant word to retrieve literature is ‘Spanish’ rather than ‘1918’. This is surprising considering the existence of suitable controlled vocabularies related to health topics, and the modern guidelines of World Health Organization concerning naming of diseases that point out to other preferred terms. A first conclusion is the failure of using controlled vocabularies for a field such as health, and in consequence for WoS and Scopus. This research opens further research questions about which is the role that controlled vocabularies play in the instructions to authors that journals deliver to documents’ authors.

Keywords: Controlled vocabularies, indexing, 1918 influenza, information retrieval, keywords, 1918 pandemic, scientific databases.

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Authors: Guang Zhou, Shouming Zhong

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In this paper, we investigate the problem of the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for a class of neural networks, the neutral system has mixed time delays and parameter uncertainties. Under the assumption that the activation functions are globally Lipschitz continuous, we drive a new criterion for the robust stability of a class of neural networks with time delays by utilizing the Lyapunov stability theorems and the Homomorphic mapping theorem. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed main results.

Keywords: Neural networks, Delayed systems, Lyapunov function, Stability analysis.

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Authors: Nafise Fareghzadeh

Abstract:

Service identification is one of the main activities in the modeling of a service-oriented solution, and therefore errors made during identification can flow down through detailed design and implementation activities that may necessitate multiple iterations, especially in building composite applications. Different strategies exist for how to identify candidate services that each of them has its own benefits and trade offs. The approach presented in this paper proposes a selective identification of services approach, based on in depth business process analysis coupled with use cases and existing assets analysis and goal service modeling. This article clearly emphasizes the key activities need for the analysis and service identification to build a optimized service oriented architecture. In contrast to other approaches this article mentions some best practices and steps, wherever appropriate, to point out the vagueness involved in service identification.

Keywords: SOA, service identification, service taxonomy, service layer.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive three phase inverter (TPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at commercial level. The proposed model uses phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize the TPI with the power electric grid (PEG) and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. TPI model consists of a boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a three-leg voltage source inverter (VSI). The operational model of VSI is used to synthesize the sinusoidal current and track the reference. The model is validated using a 35.7 kW PV system in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation results show simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: Model predictive control, three phase voltage source inverter, PV system, Matlab/Simulink.

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Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

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Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: Probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability.

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Authors: Brigita Altenbaher

Abstract:

The friction between two metal surfaces results in a high frequency noise (squealing) which also occurs during the braking of wagons with rail brakes in the process of shunting at a marshalling yard with a hump. At that point the noise level may exceed 130dB, which is extremely unpleasant for workers and inhabitants. In our research we developed a new composite material which does not change braking properties, is capable of taking extremely high pressure loads, reduces noise and is environmentally friendly. The noise reduction results had been very good and had shown a decrease of the high frequency noise almost completely (by 99%) at its source. With our technology we had also reduced general noise by more than 30dBA.

Keywords: Composite heavily fluid compound, hump yard, noise reduction, rail brakes.

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Authors: Burja C., Burja V.

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The paper presents the Romanian realities and perspectives from the point of view of reaching the sustainable development model in the context of the recent accession to the European Union, based on the analysis of the indicators listed in the EU Sustainable Development Strategy. The analysis of the economic-social potential for sustainable development and of the environment aspects show that the objectives stipulated in the renewed EU Sustainable Development Strategy of 2006 can be reached, but an extra effort must be put-in in order to overcome the existing substantial gaps in several areas in relation to the developed countries of the EU. The paper-s conclusions show that even if sustainable development is not an easy target to reach in Romania, there are resources and a growing potential, which can lead to sustainable development if used rationally.

Keywords: Ecological dimension, economic-social potential, strategy, sustainable development

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Authors: Anthony Overmars, Sitalakshmi Venkatraman

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This paper presents a method for determining all of the co-prime right angle triangles in the Euclidean field by looking at the intersection of the Pythagorean and Platonic right angle triangles and the corresponding lattice that this produces. The co-prime properties of each lattice point representing a unique right angle triangle are then considered. This paper proposes a conjunction between these two ancient disparaging theorists. This work has wide applications in information security where cryptography involves improved ways of finding tuples of prime numbers for secure communication systems. In particular, this paper has direct impact in enhancing the encryption and decryption algorithms in cryptography.

Keywords: Pythagorean triples, platonic triples, right angle triangles, co-prime numbers, cryptography.

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Authors: Mohammed Amroune, Hadi Sebaa, Tarek Bouktir

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Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. The only way to save the system from voltage instability is to reduce the reactive power load or add additional reactive power to reaching the point of voltage collapse. In recent times, the application of FACTS devices is a very effective solution to prevent voltage instability due to their fast and very flexible control. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with SVC and TCSC devices is investigated and compared in the modified IEEE 30-bus test system. The fast voltage stability indicator (FVSI) is used to identify weakest bus and to assess the voltage stability of power system.

Keywords: SVC, TCSC, Voltage stability, Fast Voltage Stability Index (FVSI), Reactive power.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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