Search results for: Analytical approach

Authors: H. M. Kelash, H. M. Faheem, M. Amoon

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The demand for autonomous resource management for distributed systems has increased in recent years. Distributed systems require an efficient and powerful communication mechanism between applications running on different hosts and networks. The use of mobile agent technology to distribute and delegate management tasks promises to overcome the scalability and flexibility limitations of the currently used centralized management approach. This work proposes a multiagent system that adopts mobile agents as a technology for tasks distribution, results collection, and management of resources in large-scale distributed systems. A new mobile agent-based approach for collecting results from distributed system elements is presented. The technique of artificial intelligence based on intelligent agents giving the system a proactive behavior. The presented results are based on a design example of an application operating in a mobile environment.

Keywords: distributed management, distributed systems, efficiency, mobile agent, multiagent, response time

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Authors: Waqas Ahmed, S Sajjad Haider Zaidi

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For the past couple of decades Weak signal detection is of crucial importance in various engineering and scientific applications. It finds its application in areas like Wireless communication, Radars, Aerospace engineering, Control systems and many of those. Usually weak signal detection requires phase sensitive detector and demodulation module to detect and analyze the signal. This article gives you a preamble to intrusion detection system which can effectively detect a weak signal from a multiplexed signal. By carefully inspecting and analyzing the respective signal, this system can successfully indicate any peripheral intrusion. Intrusion detection system (IDS) is a comprehensive and easy approach towards detecting and analyzing any signal that is weakened and garbled due to low signal to noise ratio (SNR). This approach finds significant importance in applications like peripheral security systems.

Keywords: Data Acquisition, fast frequency transforms, Lab VIEW software, weak signal detection.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: M. Oloomi-Buygi, M. Reza Salehizadeh

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In this paper a new approach for transmission pricing is presented. The main idea is voltage angle allocation, i.e. determining the contribution of each contract on the voltage angle of each bus. DC power flow is used to compute a primary solution for angle decomposition. To consider the impacts of system non-linearity on angle decomposition, the primary solution is corrected in different iterations of decoupled Newton-Raphson power flow. Then, the contribution of each contract on power flow of each transmission line is computed based on angle decomposition. Contract-related flows are used as a measure for “extent of use" of transmission network capacity and consequently transmission pricing. The presented approach is applied to a 4-bus test system and IEEE 30-bus test system.

Keywords: Deregulation, Power electric markets, Transmission pricing methodologies, decoupled Newton-Raphson power flow.

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Authors: Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval

Abstract:

Carbon steel is used in boilers, pressure vessels, heat exchangers, piping, structural elements and other moderatetemperature service systems in which good strength and ductility are desired. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section II Part A (2004) provides specifications of ferrous materials for construction of pressure equipment, covering wide range of mechanical properties including high strength materials for power plants application. However, increased level of springback is one of the major problems in fabricating components of high strength steel using bending. Presented work discuss the springback simulations for five different steels (i.e. SA-36, SA-299, SA-515 grade 70, SA-612 and SA-724 grade B) using finite element analysis of air V-bending. Analytical springback simulations of hypothetical layered materials are presented. Result shows that; (i) combination of the material property parameters controls the springback, (ii) layer of the high ductility steel on the high strength steel greatly suppresses the springback.

Keywords: Carbon steel, Finite element analysis, Layeredmaterial, Springback

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Authors: Halizah Awang, Ishak Ramly

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Problem-based learning (PBL) is one of the student centered approaches and has been considered by a number of higher educational institutions in many parts of the world as a method of delivery. This paper presents a creative thinking approach for implementing Problem-based Learning in Mechanics of Structure within a Malaysian Polytechnics environment. In the learning process, students learn how to analyze the problem given among the students and sharing classroom knowledge into practice. Further, through this course-s emphasis on problem-based learning, students acquire creative thinking skills and professional skills as they tackle complex, interdisciplinary and real-situation problems. Once the creative ideas are generated, there are useful additional techniques for tender ideas that will grow into a productive concept or solution. The combination of creative skills and technical abilities will enable the students to be ready to “hit-the-ground-running" and produce in industry when they graduate.

Keywords: Creative Thinking Skills, Problem-based Learning, Problem Solving.

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Authors: Naresh Yadav, I.A. Khan, Sandeep Grover

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This paper presents a methodology for operational and economic characteristics based evaluation and selection of a power plant using Graph theoretic approach. A universal evaluation index on the basis of Operational and economics characteristics of a plant is proposed which evaluates and ranks the various types of power plants. The index thus obtained from the pool of operational characteristics of the power plant attributes Digraph. The Digraph is developed considering Operational and economics attributes of the power plants and their relative importance for their smooth operation, installation and commissioning and prioritizing their selection. The sensitivity analysis of the attributes towards the objective has also been carried out in order to study the impact of attributes over the desired outcome i.e. the universal operational-economics index of the power plant.

Keywords: Power plant evaluation, Digraph methods, Matrixmethod, operational characteristics of Power plant, Gas turbines

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Authors: Fernando Miguel Campos, Carlos Ferreira, João Pestana, Pedro Campos, Nils Ehrenberg, Wojciech Hydzik

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The current trend of organizations offering their workers open-office spaces and co-working offices has been primed for stimulating teamwork and collaboration. However, this is not always valid as these kinds of spaces bring other types of challenges that compromise workers productivity and creativity. We present an approach for improving creativity and productivity at the workspace by redesigning an office chair that incorporates subtle technological elements that help users focus, relax and being more productive and creative. This sheds light on how we can better design interactive furniture for such popular contexts, as we develop this new chair through a multidisciplinary approach using ergonomics, interior design, interaction design, hardware and software engineering and psychology.

Keywords: Creativity, co-working, ergonomics, human-computer interaction, interaction, interactive furniture, productivity.

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Authors: P.Varzakas

Abstract:

In this paper, an accurate theoretical analysis for the achievable average channel capacity (in the Shannon sense) per user of a hybrid cellular direct-sequence/fast frequency hopping code-division multiple-access (DS/FFH-CDMA) system operating in a Rayleigh fading environment is presented. The analysis covers the downlink operation and leads to the derivation of an exact mathematical expression between the normalized average channel capacity available to each system-s user, under simultaneous optimal power and rate adaptation and the system-s parameters, as the number of hops per bit, the processing gain applied, the number of users per cell and the received signal-tonoise power ratio over the signal bandwidth. Finally, numerical results are presented to illustrate the proposed mathematical analysis.

Keywords: Shannon capacity, adaptive systems, code-division multiple access, fading channels.

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Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

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In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: Change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management.

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Authors: Subarna Ferdous, Mitsuru Ikeda

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For the shrimp companies to remain relevant to its local and international consumers, they must offer new shrimp product and services. It must work actively not just to create value for the consumer, but to involve the consumer in co-creating value for shrimp product innovation in the market. In this theoretical work, we conceptualize the business concept of value co-creation in the context of shrimp products, and propose a framework of value co-creation for shrimp product innovation in shrimp industries. With guidance on value co-creation in in shrimp industry, and shrimp value chain actors mapped to the co-creation cycle, companies can use the framework to offer new shrimp product to consumer communities. Although customer co-creation is known approach in the world, it is not commonly used by the companies in Bangladesh. This paper makes an original contribution by conceptualizing co-creation and set the examples of best co-creation practices in food sector. The results of the study provide management with guidelines for successful co-creation projects with an innovation- and market-oriented approach. The framework also provides a basis for further research in this area.

Keywords: Bangladesh, shrimp industry, shrimp product, value co-creation.

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Authors: A. Alsaadi, B. Gholami

Abstract:

An effective approach for unbalanced three-phase distribution power flow solutions is proposed in this paper. The special topological characteristics of distribution networks have been fully utilized to make the direct solution possible. Two matrices–the bus-injection to branch-current matrix and the branch-current to busvoltage matrix– and a simple matrix multiplication are used to obtain power flow solutions. Due to the distinctive solution techniques of the proposed method, the time-consuming LU decomposition and forward/backward substitution of the Jacobian matrix or admittance matrix required in the traditional power flow methods are no longer necessary. Therefore, the proposed method is robust and time-efficient. Test results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The proposed method shows great potential to be used in distribution automation applications.

Keywords: Distribution power flow, distribution automation system, radial network, unbalanced networks.

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Authors: Jinyong Yao, Hongzhi Li, Chao Du, Jiao Li

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Reliability of long-term storage products is related to the availability of the whole system, and the evaluation of storage life is of great necessity. These products are usually highly reliable and little failure information can be collected. In this paper, an analytical method based on data from accelerated storage life test is proposed to evaluate the reliability index of the long-term storage products. Firstly, singularities are eliminated by data normalization and residual analysis. Secondly, with the preprocessed data, the degradation path model is built to obtain the pseudo life values. Then by life distribution hypothesis, we can get the estimator of parameters in high stress levels and verify failure mechanism consistency. Finally, the life distribution under the normal stress level is extrapolated via the acceleration model and evaluation of the actual average life is available. An application example with the camera stabilization device is provided to illustrate the methodology we proposed.

Keywords: Accelerated storage life test, failure mechanism consistency, life distribution, reliability.

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar Chandra, Kaushal Kishor, Wasim Khan, Dhananjay Singh, M. S. Alam

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Single phase fluid flow through series of uniform microchannels connected via transition section (converging-diverging section with or without throat) was analytically and numerically studied to characterize the flow within the channel and in the transition sections. Three sets of microchannels of diameters 100, 184, and 249 μm were considered for investigation. Each set contains 10 numbers of microchannels of length 20 mm, connected to each other in series via transition sections. Transition section consists of either converging-diverging section with throat or without throat. The effect of non-uniformity in microchannels on pressure drop was determined by passing water/air through the set of channels for Reynolds number 50 to 1000. Compressibility and rarefaction effects in transition sections were also tested analytically and numerically for air flow. The analytical and numerical results show that these configurations can be used in enhancement of transport processes. However, converging-diverging section without throat shows superior performance over with throat configuration.

Keywords: Contraction-expansion flow, integrated microchannel, microchannel network, single phase flow.

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Authors: Aldy Gunawan, Kien Ming Ng, Kim Leng Poh

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This paper presents a hybrid algorithm for solving a timetabling problem, which is commonly encountered in many universities. The problem combines both teacher assignment and course scheduling problems simultaneously, and is presented as a mathematical programming model. However, this problem becomes intractable and it is unlikely that a proven optimal solution can be obtained by an integer programming approach, especially for large problem instances. A hybrid algorithm that combines an integer programming approach, a greedy heuristic and a modified simulated annealing algorithm collaboratively is proposed to solve the problem. Several randomly generated data sets of sizes comparable to that of an institution in Indonesia are solved using the proposed algorithm. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can overcome difficulties of large problem sizes encountered in previous related works.

Keywords: Timetabling problem, mathematical programming model, hybrid algorithm, simulated annealing.

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Authors: Prakash G L, Thejaswini M, S H Manjula, K R Venugopal, L M Patnaik

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Computing and maintaining network structures for efficient data aggregation incurs high overhead for dynamic events where the set of nodes sensing an event changes with time. Moreover, structured approaches are sensitive to the waiting time that is used by nodes to wait for packets from their children before forwarding the packet to the sink. An optimal routing and data aggregation scheme for wireless sensor networks is proposed in this paper. We propose Tree on DAG (ToD), a semistructured approach that uses Dynamic Forwarding on an implicitly constructed structure composed of multiple shortest path trees to support network scalability. The key principle behind ToD is that adjacent nodes in a graph will have low stretch in one of these trees in ToD, thus resulting in early aggregation of packets. Based on simulations on a 2,000-node Mica2- based network, we conclude that efficient aggregation in large-scale networks can be achieved by our semistructured approach.

Keywords: Aggregation, Packet Merging, Query Processing.

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Authors: Ali M. Alakeel

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Load balancing in distributed computer systems is the process of redistributing the work load among processors in the system to improve system performance. Most of previous research in using fuzzy logic for the purpose of load balancing has only concentrated in utilizing fuzzy logic concepts in describing processors load and tasks execution length. The responsibility of the fuzzy-based load balancing process itself, however, has not been discussed and in most reported work is assumed to be performed in a distributed fashion by all nodes in the network. This paper proposes a new fuzzy dynamic load balancing algorithm for homogenous distributed systems. The proposed algorithm utilizes fuzzy logic in dealing with inaccurate load information, making load distribution decisions, and maintaining overall system stability. In terms of control, we propose a new approach that specifies how, when, and by which node the load balancing is implemented. Our approach is called Centralized-But-Distributed (CBD).

Keywords: Dynamic load balancing, fuzzy logic, distributed systems, algorithm.

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Authors: Redha Elhuni, M. Munir Ahmad

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to construct a generic model for successful implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) in Oil sector, and to find out the effects of this model on the organizational sustainability development (OSD) performance of Libyan oil and gas companies using the structured equation modeling (SEM) approach. The research approach covers both quantitative and qualitative methods. A questionnaire was developed in order to identify the quality factors that are seen by Libyan oil and gas companies to be critical to the success of TQM implementation. Hypotheses were developed to evaluate the impact of TQM implementation on O SD. Data analysis reveals that there is a significant positive effect of the TQM implementation on OSD. 24 quality factors are found to be critical and absolutely essential for successful TQM implementation. The results generated a structure of the TQMSD implementation framework based on the four major road map constructs (Top management commitment, employee involvement and participation, customer-driven processes, and continuous improvement culture).

Keywords: TQM, CQFs, Oil & Gas, OSD, Libya.

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Authors: Mehdi Ghommem, Daniel Garcia, Nathan Collier, Victor Calo

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We develop a fast, user-friendly implementation of a potential flow solver based on the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). The computational framework uses the Python programming language which has easy integration with the scripts requiring computationally-expensive operations written in Fortran. The mixed-language approach enables high performance in terms of solution time and high flexibility in terms of easiness of code adaptation to different system configurations and applications. This computational tool is intended to predict the unsteady aerodynamic behavior of multiple moving bodies (e.g., flapping wings, rotating blades, suspension bridges...) subject to an incoming air. We simulate different aerodynamic problems to validate and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the developed computational tool.

Keywords: Unsteady aerodynamics, numerical simulations, mixed-language approach, potential flow.

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Authors: Muhammad F. Yaqub, Iqbal Gondal, Joarder Kamruzzaman

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Occurrence of a multiple-points fault in machine operations could result in exhibiting complex fault signatures, which could result in lowering fault diagnosis accuracy. In this study, a multiple-points defect model (MPDM) is proposed which can simulate fault signature-s dynamics for n-points bearing faults. Furthermore, this study identifies that in case of multiple-points fault in the rotary machine, the location of the dominant component of defect frequency shifts depending upon the relative location of the fault points which could mislead the fault diagnostic model to inaccurate detections. Analytical and experimental results are presented to characterize and validate the variation in the dominant component of defect frequency. Based on envelop detection analysis, a modification is recommended in the existing fault diagnostic models to consider the multiples of defect frequency rather than only considering the frequency spectrum at the defect frequency in order to incorporate the impact of multiple points fault.

Keywords: Envelop detection, machine defect frequency, multiple faults, machine health monitoring.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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Authors: Bin Cai, Shilong Wang, Haibo Hu

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The job shop scheduling problem (JSSP) is a notoriously difficult problem in combinatorial optimization. This paper presents a hybrid artificial immune system for the JSSP with the objective of minimizing makespan. The proposed approach combines the artificial immune system, which has a powerful global exploration capability, with the local search method, which can exploit the optimal antibody. The antibody coding scheme is based on the operation based representation. The decoding procedure limits the search space to the set of full active schedules. In each generation, a local search heuristic based on the neighborhood structure proposed by Nowicki and Smutnicki is applied to improve the solutions. The approach is tested on 43 benchmark problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial immune system, Job shop scheduling problem, Local search, Metaheuristic algorithm

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Authors: Henry J. Wattimanela, Udjianna S. Pasaribu, Nanang T. Puspito, Sapto W. Indratno

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Banda Sea Collision Zone (BSCZ) is the result of the interaction and convergence of Indo-Australian plate, Eurasian plate and Pacific plate. This location is located in eastern Indonesia. This zone has a very high seismic activity. In this research, we will calculate the rate (λ) and Mean Square Error (MSE). By this result, we will classification earthquakes distribution in the BSCZ with the point process approach. Chi-square is used to determine the type of earthquakes distribution in the sub region of BSCZ. The data used in this research is data of earthquakes with a magnitude ≥ 6 SR for the period 1964-2013 and sourced from BMKG Jakarta. This research is expected to contribute to the Moluccas Province and surrounding local governments in performing spatial plan document related to disaster management.

Keywords: Banda sea collision zone, earthquakes, mean square error, Poisson distribution, chi-square test.

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Authors: Rachid Ed-Dali, Khalid Elasri

Abstract:

Mass media seem to provide a rich content for language acquisition. Exposure to television, the Internet, the mobile phone and other technological gadgets and devices helps enrich the student’s lexicon positively as well as negatively. The difficulties encountered by students while learning and acquiring second languages in addition to their eagerness to comprehend the content of a particular program prompt them to diversify their methods so as to achieve their targets. The present study highlights the significance of certain media channels and their involvement in language acquisition with the employment of the Natural Approach to further grasp whether students, especially secondary and high school students, learn and acquire errors through watching subtitled television programs. The chief objective is investigating the deductive and inductive relevance of certain programs beside the involvement of peripheral learning while acquiring mistakes.

Keywords: Errors, mistakes, natural Approach, peripheral learning, solecism.

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Authors: Danielle Reichel, Antoine Druilhe, Tuan Dang

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Traditional development of wireless sensor network mote is generally based on SoC1 platform. Such method of development faces three main drawbacks: lack of flexibility in terms of development due to low resource and rigid architecture of SoC; low capability of evolution and portability versus performance if specific micro-controller architecture features are used; and the rapid obsolescence of micro-controller comparing to the long lifetime of power plants or any industrial installations. To overcome these drawbacks, we have explored a new approach of development of wireless sensor network mote using a hybrid FPGA technology. The application of such approach is illustrated through the implementation of an innovative wireless sensor network protocol called OCARI.

Keywords: Hybrid FPGA, Embedded system, Mote, flexibility, durability, OCARI protocol, SoC, Wireless Sensor Network

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Authors: Ramin Javadzadeh., Zahra Afsahi, MohammadReza Meybodi

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The Artificial immune systems algorithms are Meta heuristic optimization method, which are used for clustering and pattern recognition applications are abundantly. These algorithms in multimodal optimization problems are more efficient than genetic algorithms. A major drawback in these algorithms is their slow convergence to global optimum and their weak stability can be considered in various running of these algorithms. In this paper, improved Artificial Immune System Algorithm is introduced for the first time to overcome its problems of artificial immune system. That use of the small size of a local search around the memory antibodies is used for improving the algorithm efficiently. The credibility of the proposed approach is evaluated by simulations, and it is shown that the proposed approach achieves better results can be achieved compared to the standard artificial immune system algorithms

Keywords: Artificial immune system, Cellular Automata, Cellular learning automata, Cellular learning automata, , Local search, Optimization.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible non-isothermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in a pipe. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales- Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis of rapid gas decompression process in rich and base natural gases is made on the basis of the proposed mathematical model. The model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1]. The proposed mathematical model shows a very good agreement with the experimental data [1] in a wide range of pressure values and predicts the decompression in rich and base gas mixtures much better than analytical and mathematical models, which are available from the open source literature.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Multi-Component gas mixture flow, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Haythem Yahyaoui, Samir Moalla, Mounir Bouden, Skander Ghorbel

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Nowadays, cloud environments are becoming a need for companies, this new technology gives the opportunities to access to the data anywhere and anytime. It also provides an optimized and secured access to the resources and gives more security for the data which is stored in the platform. However, some companies do not trust Cloud providers, they think that providers can access and modify some confidential data such as bank accounts. Many works have been done in this context, they conclude that encryption methods realized by providers ensure the confidentiality, but, they forgot that Cloud providers can decrypt the confidential resources. The best solution here is to apply some operations on the data before sending them to the provider Cloud in the objective to make them unreadable. The principal idea is to allow user how it can protect his data with his own methods. In this paper, we are going to demonstrate our approach and prove that is more efficient in term of execution time than some existing methods. This work aims at enhancing the quality of service of providers and ensuring the trust of the customers. 

Keywords: Confidentiality, cryptography, security issues, trust issues.

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Authors: Ali Taee Zade, Siamak Rasulzadeh, Reza Torkashvan

Abstract:

Although Model Driven Architecture has taken successful steps toward model-based software development, this approach still faces complex situations and ambiguous questions while applying to real world software systems. One of these questions - which has taken the most interest and focus - is how model transforms between different abstraction levels, MDA proposes. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Story Driven Modeling and Aspect Oriented Programming to ease these transformations. Service Oriented Architecture is taken as the target model to test the proposed mechanism in a functional system. Service Oriented Architecture and Model Driven Architecture [1] are both considered as the frontiers of their own domain in the software world. Following components - which was the greatest step after object oriented - SOA is introduced, focusing on more integrated and automated software solutions. On the other hand - and from the designers' point of view - MDA is just initiating another evolution. MDA is considered as the next big step after UML in designing domain.

Keywords: SOA, MDA, SDM, Model Transformation, Middleware Transparency, Aspects and Jini.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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