Search results for: extreme event

Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

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The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D^-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: Landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, slope, inventory, early warning system.

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Authors: Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman

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Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6, 12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10% level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12 hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations (e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments and smaller sub-divisions.

Keywords: Climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania.

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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Authors: Emad Alenany, M. Adel El-Baz

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In this paper, the flow of different classes of patients into a hospital is modelled and analyzed by using the queueing network analyzer (QNA) algorithm and discrete event simulation. Input data for QNA are the rate and variability parameters of the arrival and service times in addition to the number of servers in each facility. Patient flows mostly match real flow for a hospital in Egypt. Based on the analysis of the waiting times, two approaches are suggested for improving performance: Separating patients into service groups, and adopting different service policies for sequencing patients through hospital units. The separation of a specific group of patients, with higher performance target, to be served separately from the rest of patients requiring lower performance target, requires the same capacity while improves performance for the selected group of patients with higher target. Besides, it is shown that adopting the shortest processing time and shortest remaining processing time service policies among other tested policies would results in, respectively, 11.47% and 13.75% reduction in average waiting time relative to first come first served policy.

Keywords: Queueing network, discrete-event simulation, health applications, SPT.

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-TOPSIS, fuzzy set, FDM, flight safety.

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Joseph Sanjaya Ma

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Flood management is one of the important fields in urban storm water management. Floods are influenced by the increase of huge storm event, or improper planning of the area. This study mainly provides the flood protection in four stages; planning, flood event, responses and evaluation. However it is most effective then flood protection is considered in planning/design and evaluation stages since both stages represent the land development of the area. Structural adjustments are often more reliable than nonstructural adjustments in providing flood protection, however structural adjustments are constrained by numerous factors such as political constraints and cost. Therefore it is important to balance both adjustments with the situation. The technical decisions provided will have to be approved by the higher-ups who have the power to decide on the final solution. Costs however, are the biggest factor in determining the final decision. Therefore this study recommends flood protection system should have been integrated and enforces more in the early stages (planning and design) as part of the storm water management plan. Factors influencing the technical decisions provided should be reduced as low as possible to avoid a reduction in the expected performance of the proposed adjustments.

Keywords: Urban Flood, flood protection, water management, storm water, cost,

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Authors: Javier Barbaran, Manuel Dıaz, Inaki Esteve, Bartolome Rubio

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have attracted the attention of many researchers. This has resulted in their rapid integration in very different areas such as precision agriculture,environmental monitoring, object and event detection and military surveillance. Due to the current WSN characteristics this technology is specifically useful in industrial areas where security, reliability and autonomy are basic, such as nuclear power plants, chemical plants, and others. In this paper we present a system based on WSNs to monitor environmental conditions around and inside a nuclear power plant, specifically, radiation levels. Sensor nodes, equipped with radiation sensors, are deployed in fixed positions throughout the plant. In addition, plant staff are also equipped with mobile devices with higher capabilities than sensors such as for example PDAs able to monitor radiation levels and other conditions around them. The system enables communication between PDAs, which form a Mobile Ad-hoc Wireless Network (MANET), and allows workers to monitor remote conditions in the plant. It is particularly useful during stoppage periods for inspection or in the event of an accident to prevent risk situations.

Keywords: MANETs, Mobile computing, Radiation monitoring, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, M. M. Vaidya, M. D. Kudale

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Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26^th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km²), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26^th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Keywords: Airport, hydrodynamics, hydrographs, safe grade elevation, tides.

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Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

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This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

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Authors: Hiroshi Abe, Minoru Nakayama

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The frontal area in the brain is known to be involved in behavioral judgement. Because a Kanji character can be discriminated visually and linguistically from other characters, in Kanji character discrimination, we hypothesized that frontal event-related potential (ERP) waveforms reflect two discrimination processes in separate time periods: one based on visual analysis and the other based on lexcical access. To examine this hypothesis, we recorded ERPs while performing a Kanji lexical decision task. In this task, either a known Kanji character, an unknown Kanji character or a symbol was presented and the subject had to report if the presented character was a known Kanji character for the subject or not. The same response was required for unknown Kanji trials and symbol trials. As a preprocessing of signals, we examined the performance of a method using independent component analysis for artifact rejection and found it was effective. Therefore we used it. In the ERP results, there were two time periods in which the frontal ERP wavefoms were significantly different betweeen the unknown Kanji trials and the symbol trials: around 170ms and around 300ms after stimulus onset. This result supported our hypothesis. In addition, the result suggests that Kanji character lexical access may be fully completed by around 260ms after stimulus onset.

Keywords: Character discrimination, Event-related Potential, IndependentComponent Analysis, Kanji, Lexical access.

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Authors: Chad A. Long

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The United States military is now commonly responding to complex humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters around the world. From catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti to typhoons devastating the Philippines, U.S. military assistance is requested when the event exceeds the local government's ability to assist the population. This study assesses the characteristics of catastrophes that surpass a nation’s individual ability to respond and recover from the event. The paper begins with a historical summary of military aid and then analyzes over 40 years of the United States military humanitarian response. Over 300 military operations were reviewed and coded based on the nature of the disaster. This in-depth study reviewed the U.S. military’s deployment events for cyclones and earthquakes to determine the strength of the natural disaster requiring external assistance. The climatological data for cyclone landfall and magnitude data for earthquake epicenters were identified, grouped into regions and analyzed for time-based trends. The results showed that foreign countries will likely request the U.S. military for cyclones with speeds greater or equal to 125 miles an hour and earthquakes at the magnitude of 7.4 or higher. These results of this study will assist the geographic combatant commands in determining future military response requirements.

Keywords: Cyclones, earthquakes, natural disasters, military.

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Authors: I. Badhrees

Abstract:

This paper is an attempt to describe some of the results that had been found through a journey of study in the field of particle physics. This study consists of two parts, one about the measurement of the cross section of the decay of the Z particle in two electrons, and the other deals with the measurement of the cross section of the multi-photon absorption process using a beam of Laser in the Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber.

The first part of the paper concerns the results based on the analysis of a data sample containing 8120 ee candidates to reconstruct the mass of the Z particle for each event where each event has an ee pair with PT_(e) > 20GeV, and η_(e) < 2.5. Monte Carlo templates of the reconstructed Z particle were produced as a function of the Z mass scale. The distribution of the reconstructed Z mass in the data was compared to the Monte Carlo templates, where the total cross section is calculated to be equal to 1432pb.

The second part concerns the Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber, LAr TPC, the results of the interaction of the UV Laser, Nd-YAG with λ= 266mm, with LAr and through the study of the multi-photon ionization process as a part of the R&D at Bern University. The main result of this study was the cross section of the process of the multi-photon ionization process of the LAr, σ_e = 1.24±0.10stat±0.30sys.10 -56cm⁴.

Keywords: ATLAS, CERN, KACST, LArTPC, Particle Physics.

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Authors: K. T. Sun, Y. H. Tai, H. W. Yang, H. T. Lin

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This paper presented the technique of robot control by event-related potentials (ERPs) of brain waves. Based on the proposed technique, severe physical disabilities can free browse outside world. A specific component of ERPs, N2P3, was found and used to control the movement of robot and the view of camera on the designed brain-computer interface (BCI). Users only required watching the stimuli of attended button on the BCI, the evoked potentials of brain waves of the target button, N2P3, had the greatest amplitude among all control buttons. An experimental scene had been constructed that the robot required walking to a specific position and move the view of camera to see the instruction of the mission, and then completed the task. Twelve volunteers participated in this experiment, and experimental results showed that the correct rate of BCI control achieved 80% and the average of execution time was 353 seconds for completing the mission. Four main contributions included in this research: (1) find an efficient component of ERPs, N2P3, for BCI control, (2) embed robot's viewpoint image into user interface for robot control, (3) design an experimental scene and conduct the experiment, and (4) evaluate the performance of the proposed system for assessing the practicability.

Keywords: Brain-computer interface (BCI), event-related potentials (ERPs), robot control, severe physical disabilities.

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Authors: Gabi N. Nehme, Saeed Ghalambor

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The use of titanium fluoride and iron fluoride (TiF3/FeF3) catalysts in combination with polutetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) in plain zinc- dialkyldithiophosphate (ZDDP) oil is important for the study of engine tribocomponents and is increasingly a strategy to improve the formation of tribofilm and provide low friction and excellent wear protection in reduced phosphorus plain ZDDP oil. The influence of surface roughness and the concentration of TiF3/FeF3/PTFE were investigated using bearing steel samples dipped in lubricant solution at 100°C for two different heating time durations. This paper addresses the effects of water drop contact angle using different surface; finishes after treating them with different lubricant combination. The calculated water drop contact angles were analyzed using Design of Experiment software (DOE) and it was determined that a 0.05 μm Ra surface roughness would provide an excellent TiF3/FeF3/PTFE coating for antiwear resistance as reflected in the Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images and the tribological testing under extreme pressure conditions. Both friction and wear performance depend greatly on the PTFE/and catalysts in plain ZDDP oil with 0.05 % phosphorous and on the surface finish of bearing steel. The friction and wear reducing effects, which was observed in the tribological tests, indicated a better micro lubrication effect of the 0.05 μm Ra surface roughness treated at 100°C for 24 hours when compared to the 0.1 μm Ra surface roughness with the same treatment.

Keywords: Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), ZDDP, catalysts, PTFE, friction, wear.

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Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme Gradient Boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impairment, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest.

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Authors: Puzanova Zhanna Vasilyevna, Larina Tatiana Igorevna, Tertyshnikova Anastasia Gennadyevna

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In this day and age, extremism in various forms of its manifestation is a real threat to the world community, the national security of a state and its territorial integrity, as well as to the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens. Extremism, as it is known, in general terms described as a commitment to extreme views and actions, radically denying the existing social norms and rules. Supporters of extremism in the ideological and political struggles often adopt methods and means of psychological warfare, appeal not to reason and logical arguments, but to emotions and instincts of the people, to prejudices, biases, and a variety of mythological designs. They are dissatisfied with the established order and aim at increasing this dissatisfaction among the masses. Youth extremism holds a specific place among the existing forms and types of extremism. In this context in 2015, we conducted a survey among Moscow college and high school students. The aim of this study was to determine how great or small is the difference in understanding and attitudes towards extremism manifestations, inclination and readiness to take part in extremist activities and what causes this predisposition, if it exists. We performed multivariate analysis and found the Russian college and high school students' opinion about the extremism and terrorism situation in our country and also their cognition on these topics. Among other things, we showed, that the level of aggressiveness of young people were not above the average for the whole population. The survey was conducted using the questionnaire method. The sample included college and high school students in Moscow (642 and 382, respectively) by method of random selection. The questionnaire was developed by specialists of RUDN University Sociological Laboratory and included both original questions (projective questions, the technique of incomplete sentences), and the standard test Dayhoff S. to determine the level of internal aggressiveness. It is also used as an experiment, the technique of study option using of FACS and SPAFF to determine the psychotypes and determination of non-verbal manifestations of emotions. The study confirmed the hypothesis that in respondents’ opinion, the level of aggression is higher today than a few years ago. Differences were found in the understanding of and respect for such social phenomena as extremism, terrorism, and their danger and appeal for the two age groups of young people. Theory of psychotypes, SPAFF (specific affect cording system) and FACS (facial action cording system) are considered as additional techniques for the diagnosis of a tendency to extreme views. Thus, it is established that diagnostics of acceptance of extreme views among young people is possible thanks to simultaneous use of knowledge from the different fields of socio-humanistic sciences. The results of the research can be used in a comparative context with other countries and as a starting point for further research in the field, taking into account its extreme relevance.

Keywords: Extremism, youth extremism, diagnostics of extremist manifestations, forecast of behavior, Sociological polls, theory of psychotypes, FACS, SPAFF.

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Authors: Richard Lewis

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The following assumptions of the Big Bang theory are challenged and found to be false: the cosmological principle, the assumption that all matter formed at the same time and the assumption regarding the cause of the cosmic microwave background radiation. The evolution of the universe is described based on the conclusion that the universe is finite with a space boundary. This conclusion is reached by ruling out the possibility of an infinite universe or a universe which is finite with no boundary. In a finite universe, the centre of the universe can be located with reference to our home galaxy (The Milky Way) using the speed relative to the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) rest frame and Hubble's law. This places our home galaxy at a distance of approximately 26 million light years from the centre of the universe. Because we are making observations from a point relatively close to the centre of the universe, the universe appears to be isotropic and homogeneous but this is not the case. The CMB is coming from a source located within the event horizon of the universe. There is sufficient mass in the universe to create an event horizon at the Schwarzschild radius. Galaxies form over time due to the energy released by the expansion of space. Conservation of energy must consider total energy which is mass (+ve) plus energy (+ve) plus spacetime curvature (-ve) so that the total energy of the universe is always zero. The predominant position of galaxy formation moves over time from the centre of the universe towards the boundary so that today the majority of new galaxy formation is taking place beyond our horizon of observation at 14 billion light years.

Keywords: Cosmic microwave background, dark energy, dark matter, evolution of the universe.

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, the power system has been changed and a flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system works simply in the household sector and the owner as the decision-maker, can benefit from power saving. On the other hand, the execution of demand response in the office building is more complex than in the household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in the decision-making process. While the owners benefit from demand saving, the occupants are exposed to restricted benefits of a demand-saved environment. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually under centralized management and each occupant cannot choose freely whether to participate in demand response or not. In addition, it is unclear whether incentives give occupants the motivation to participate. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of the office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature individually. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of whether or not to participate in demand response in the office building. This study investigates personal responses to demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their desk-lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared among four groups, which are divided by different motivation, the presence, or absence of incentives and the method of participation. The result shows that there are significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The method of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. The “Opt-out” groups where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they do not express non-participation have the highest participation rate in the four groups. Incentives also have an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports on the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective fatigue symptoms of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: Demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiograph.

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Authors: Hakan Bostancı, Metin Öztürk

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In this paper, a necessary and sufficient coefficient are given for functions in a class of complex valued meromorphic harmonic univalent functions of the form f = h + g using Salagean operator. Furthermore, distortion theorems, extreme points, convolution condition and convex combinations for this family of meromorphic harmonic functions are obtained.

Keywords: Harmonic mappings, Meromorphic functions, Salagean operator.

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Authors: Claudio Díaz, Mabel Ortiz

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An EFL teacher education programme in Chile takes five years to train a future teacher of English. Preservice teachers are prepared to learn an advanced level of English and teach the language from 5th to 12th grade in the Chilean educational system. In the context of their first EFL Methodology course in year four, preservice teachers have to create a five-minute digital story that starts from a critical incident they have experienced as teachers-to-be during their observations or interventions in the schools. A critical incident can be defined as a happening, a specific incident or event either observed by them or involving them. The happening sparks their thinking and may make them subsequently think differently about the particular event. When they create their digital stories, preservice teachers put technology, teaching practice and theory together to narrate a story that is complemented by still images, moving images, text, sound effects and music. The story should be told as a personal narrative, which explains the critical incident. This presentation will focus on the creation process of 50 Chilean preservice teachers’ digital stories highlighting the critical incidents they started their stories. It will also unpack preservice teachers’ beliefs and reflections when approaching their teaching practices in schools. These beliefs will be coded and categorized through content analysis to evidence preservice teachers’ most rooted conceptions about English teaching and learning in Chilean schools. The findings seem to indicate that preservice teachers’ beliefs are strongly mediated by contextual and affective factors.

Keywords: Beliefs, Digital stories, Preservice teachers, Practicum.

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Authors: Ernst D. Schmitter

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There is increasing evidence that earthquakes produce electromagnetic signals observable at the surface in the extremely low to very low freqency (ELF - VLF) range often in advance to the main event. These precursors are candidates for prediction purposes. Laboratory experiments con´¼ürm that material under load emits an electromagnetic signature, the detailed generation mechanisms how- ever are not well understood yet.

Keywords: Earthquakes, ELF, EM signals from material under load, signal propagation in conductors.

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Authors: Mohd Salehuddin Mohd Zahari, Noor Ibtisam Abdul Karim, Mohd Zain Kutut, Mohd Zulhilmi Suhaimi

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Many people regard food events as part of gastronomic tourism and important in enhancing visitors’ experiences. Realizing the importance and contribution of food events to a country’s economy, the Malaysia government is undertaking greater efforts to promote such tourism activities to international tourists. Among other food events, the Ramadan bazaar is a unique food culture event, which receives significant attention from the Malaysia Ministry of Tourism. This study reports the empirical investigation into the international tourists’ perceptions, attraction towards the Ramadan bazaar and willingness in disseminating the information. Using the Ramadan bazaar at Kampung Baru, Kuala Lumpur as the data collection setting, results revealed that the Ramadan bazaar attributes (food and beverages, events and culture) significantly influenced the international tourist attraction to such a bazaar. Their high level of experience and satisfaction positively influenced their willingness to disseminate information. The positive response among the international tourists indicates that the Ramadan bazaar as gastronomic tourism can be used in addition to other tourism products as a catalyst to generate and boost the local economy. The related authorities that are closely associated with the tourism industry therefore should not ignore this indicator but continue to take proactive action in promoting the gastronomic event as one of the major tourist attractions.

Keywords: Ramadan bazaar, international tourists, attraction, dissemination, information.

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Authors: Jaturong Som-ard

Abstract:

The heavy rainfall from 3rd to 22th January 2017 had swamped much area of Ranot district in southern Thailand. Due to heavy rainfall, the district was flooded which had a lot of effects on economy and social loss. The major objective of this study is to detect flooding extent using Sentinel-1A data and identify a number of damaged buildings over there. The data were collected in two stages as pre-flooding and during flood event. Calibration, speckle filtering, geometric correction, and histogram thresholding were performed with the data, based on intensity spectral values to classify thematic maps. The maps were used to identify flooding extent using change detection, along with the buildings digitized and collected on JOSM desktop. The numbers of damaged buildings were counted within the flooding extent with respect to building data. The total flooded areas were observed as 181.45 sq.km. These areas were mostly occurred at Ban khao, Ranot, Takhria, and Phang Yang sub-districts, respectively. The Ban khao sub-district had more occurrence than the others because this area is located at lower altitude and close to Thale Noi and Thale Luang lakes than others. The numbers of damaged buildings were high in Khlong Daen (726 features), Tha Bon (645 features), and Ranot sub-district (604 features), respectively. The final flood extent map might be very useful for the plan, prevention and management of flood occurrence area. The map of building damage can be used for the quick response, recovery and mitigation to the affected areas for different concern organization.

Keywords: Flooding extent, Sentinel-1A data, JOSM desktop, damaged buildings.

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Authors: Kay-Anne Haykal, Issack Biyong

Abstract:

The post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) rises from exposure to a traumatic event and appears by a persistent experience of this event. Several psychiatric co-morbidities are associated with PTSD and include mood disorders, anxiety disorders, and substance abuse. The main objective was to compare the criteria for PTSD according to the literature to those used to diagnose a patient in a francophone hospital and to check the correspondence of these two criteria. 700 medical charts of admitted patients on the medicine or psychiatric unit at the Montfort Hospital were identified with the following diagnoses: major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorder, substance abuse, and PTSD for the period of time between April 2005 and March 2006. Multiple demographic criteria were assembled. Also, for every chart analyzed, the PTSD criteria, according to the Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV were found, identified, and grouped according to pre-established codes. An analysis using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method was elaborated for the study of data. A sample of 57 women and 50 men was studied. Age was varying between 18 and 88 years with a median age of 48. According to the PTSD criteria in the DSM IV, 12 patients should have the diagnosis of PTSD in opposition to only two identified in the medical charts. The ROC method establishes that with the combination of data from PTSD and depression, the sensitivity varies between 0,127 and 0,282, and the specificity varies between 0,889 and 0,917. Otherwise, if we examine the PTSD data alone, the sensibility jumps to 0.50, and the specificity varies between 0,781 and 0,895. This study confirms the presence of an underdiagnosed and treated PTSD that causes severe perturbations for the affected individual.

Keywords: Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, diagnosis, co-morbidities, mental health disorders.

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Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

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Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

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Authors: P. Vazan, P. Tanuska

Abstract:

The paper provides the basic overview of simulation optimization. The procedure of its practical using is demonstrated on the real example in simulator Witness. The simulation optimization is presented as a good tool for solving many problems in real praxis especially in production systems. The authors also characterize their own experiences and they mention the strengths and weakness of simulation optimization.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, simulation optimization, Witness

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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Authors: Duong Vannak, Mohd Shahir Liew, Guo Zheng Yew

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Data of wave height and wind speed were collected from three existing oil fields in South China Sea – offshore Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah regions. Extreme values and other significant data were employed for analysis. The data were recorded from 1999 until 2008. The results show that offshore structures are susceptible to unacceptable motions initiated by wind and waves with worst structural impacts caused by extreme wave heights. To protect offshore structures from damage, there is a need to quantify descriptive statistics and determine spectra envelope of wind speed and wave height, and to ascertain the frequency content of each spectrum for offshore structures in the South China Sea shallow waters using measured time series. The results indicate that the process is nonstationary; it is converted to stationary process by first differencing the time series. For descriptive statistical analysis, both wind speed and wave height have significant influence on the offshore structure during the northeast monsoon with high mean wind speed of 13.5195 knots (
= 6.3566 knots) and the high mean wave height of 2.3597 m (
= 0.8690 m). Through observation of the spectra, there is no clear dominant peak and the peaks fluctuate randomly. Each wind speed spectrum and wave height spectrum has its individual identifiable pattern. The wind speed spectrum tends to grow gradually at the lower frequency range and increasing till it doubles at the higher frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.4104 Hz to 0.4721 Hz, while the wave height tends to grow drastically at the low frequency range, which then fluctuates and decreases slightly at the high frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.2911 Hz to 0.3425 Hz.

Keywords: Metocean, Offshore Engineering, Time Series, Descriptive Statistics, Autospectral Density Function, Wind, Wave.

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Authors: Wen Hui Kuan, Chia Ling Chang, Pei Shan Lui

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The Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in Taiwan is the natural habitat of Formosan landlocked salmon. Human and agriculture activities gradually worsen water quality and impact the fish habitat negatively. To protect and manage Formosan landlocked salmon habitat, it is important to understand a variety land-uses affect on the watershed responses to storms. This study discusses watershed responses to the dry-day before a storm event and a variety of land-uses in the Wulin catchment. Under the land-use planning in the Wulin catchment, the peak flows during typhoon events do not have noticeable difference. However, the nutrient exports can be highly reduced under the strategies of restraining agriculture activities. Due to the higher affinity of P for soil than that of N, the exports of TN from overall Wuling catchment were much greater than Ortho-P. Agriculture mainly centralized in subbasin A, which is the important source of nutrients in nonpoint source discharge. The subbasin A supplied about 26% of the TN and 32% of the Ortho-P discharge in 2004, despite the fact it only covers 19% area of the Wuling catchment. The subbasin analysis displayed that the agricultural subbasin A exports higher nutrients per unit area than other forest subbasins. Additionally, the agricultural subbasin A contributed a higher percentage to total Ortho-P exports compares to TN. The results of subbasin analysis might imply the transport of Ortho-P was similar to the particulate matter which was mainly influenced by the runoff and affected by the desorption from soil particles while the TN (dominated as nitrate-N) was mainly influenced by base-flow.

Keywords: Chiachiawan stream, Formosan landlocked salmon, modeling, typhoon, watershed response.

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