Precipitation Intensity: Duration Based Threshold Analysis for Initiation of Landslides in Upper Alaknanda Valley
The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1128787Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 959
 L. Highland, "Landslide Types and Processes," 2004. (Online). Available: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2004/3072/pdf/fs2004-3072.pdf. (Accessed 15 May 2016).
 L. R. Walker and A. B. Shiels, "Physical causes and consequences," in Landslide Ecology, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2013, pp. 46-82.
 N. Caine, "The Rainfall Intensity: Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows," Geografiska Annaler, vol. 62(1/2), pp. 23-27, 1980
 R. Campbell, "Soil slips, debris flows, and rainstorms in the Santa Monica Mountains and vicinity, Southern California," U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, 1975.
 L. Starkel, "The role of extreme meteorological events in the shaping of mountain," Geographica Polonica, vol. 41, pp. 13-20, 1979.
 G. F. Wieczorek and F. Guzzetti, "A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering landslides," 1999.
 E. Brand, "Slope instability in tropical areas," in Sixth International Symposium on Landslides, Christchurch, New Zealand, 1995.
 A. Hansen, C. Franks, P. Kirk, A. Brimicombe and F. Tung, "Application of GIS to hazard assessment, with particular reference to landslides in Hong Kong: in Carrara, Alberto, and Guzzetti," in Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, pp. 273-298.
 K. Johnson and N. Sitar, “Hydrologic conditions leading to debris-flow initiation," Canadian Geotechnical Journal, vol. 27, pp. 789-801, 1990.
 R. Iverson, M. Reid and R. LaHusen, "Debris-flow mobilization from landslides," Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, vol. 25, pp. 85-138, 1997.
 M. Patwary, P. Champati ray and I. Parvaiz, "IRS-LISS-III and PAN Data Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using Heuristic Approach in Active Tectonic Region of Himalaya," Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 493-509, 2009.
 D. Montgomery, W. Dietrich, R. Torres, S. Anderson, J. Heffner and K. Loague, "Hydrologic response of a steep, unchanneled valley to natural and applied rainfall," Water Resources Research, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 91-109, 1997.
 S. Devi and D. C. Goswami, "The subansiri river basin in eastern Himalayas and the alaknanda river basin in western Himalayas: a comparative study in regard to their geo-environment and hydrometeorology," International Journal of Environmental Sciences, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 135-143, 2014
 S. Lakhera, Precipitation Intensity – Duration Based Threshold Modelling and landslide impact assessment in Alaknanda Valley, Dehradun: M. Tech Thesis, IIRS, 2015.