Search results for: Sensitivity analysis.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8988

Search results for: Sensitivity analysis.

8868 Performance Improvement of Information System of a Banking System Based on Integrated Resilience Engineering Design

Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

Abstract:

Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: Banking system, data envelopment analysis, DEA, integrated resilience engineering, IRE, performance evaluation, perturbation analysis.

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8867 A 3D Numerical Environmental Modeling Approach for Assessing Transport of Spilled Oil in Porous Beach Conditions under a Meso-Scale Tank Design

Authors: J. X. Dong, C. J. An, Z. Chen, E. H. Owens, M. C. Boufadel, E. Taylor, K. Lee

Abstract:

Shorelines are vulnerable to significant environmental impacts from oil spills. Stranded oil can cause potential short- to long-term detrimental effects along beaches that include injuries to ecosystem, socio-economic and cultural resources. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling approach is developed to evaluate the fate and transport of spilled oil for hypothetical oiled shoreline cases under various combinations of beach geomorphology and environmental conditions. The developed model estimates the spatial and temporal distribution of spilled oil for the various test conditions, using the finite volume method and considering the physical transport (dispersion and advection), sinks, and sorption processes. The model includes a user-friendly interface for data input on variables such as beach properties, environmental conditions, and physical-chemical properties of spilled oil. An experimental meso-scale tank design was used to test the developed model for dissolved petroleum hydrocarbon within shorelines. The simulated results for effects of different sediment substrates, oil types, and shoreline features for the transport of spilled oil are comparable to that obtained with a commercially available model. Results show that the properties of substrates and the oil removal by shoreline effects have significant impacts on oil transport in the beach area. Sensitivity analysis, through the application of the one-step-at-a-time method (OAT), for the 3D model identified hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameter. The 3D numerical model allows users to examine the behavior of oil on and within beaches, assess potential environmental impacts, and provide technical support for decisions related to shoreline clean-up operations.

Keywords: dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons, environmental multimedia model, finite volume method, FVM, sensitivity analysis, total petroleum hydrocarbons, TPH

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8866 Multi-Criteria Nautical Ports Capacity and Services Planning

Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljaš, I. Berbić

Abstract:

This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria in the Adriatic Sea region. The purpose was analyzing the determinants - characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism, but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generates effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result - developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning - Port Capacity Planning Multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. The obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service.

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8865 A Parametric Study: Frame Analysis Method for Masonry Arch Bridges

Authors: M. E. Rahman, D. Sujan, V. Pakrashi, P. Fanning

Abstract:

The predictability of masonry arch bridges and their behaviour is widely considered doubtful due to the lack of knowledge about the conditions of a given masonry arch bridge. The assessment methods for masonry arch bridges are MEXE, ARCHIE, RING and Frame Analysis Method. The material properties of the masonry and fill material are extremely difficult to determine accurately. Consequently, it is necessary to examine the effect of load dispersal angle through the fill material, the effect of variations in the stiffness of the masonry, the tensile strength of the masonry mortar continuum and the compressive strength of the masonry mortar continuum. It is also important to understand the effect of fill material on load dispersal angle to determine their influence on ratings. In this paper a series of parametric studies, to examine the sensitivity of assessment ratings to the various sets of input data required by the frame analysis method, are carried out.

Keywords: Arch Bridge, Frame Analyses Method, Masonry

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8864 High Order Cascade Multibit ΣΔ Modulator for Wide Bandwidth Applications

Authors: S. Zouari, H. Daoud, M. Loulou, P. Loumeau, N. Masmoudi

Abstract:

A wideband 2-1-1 cascaded ΣΔ modulator with a single-bit quantizer in the two first stages and a 4-bit quantizer in the final stage is developed. To reduce sensitivity of digital-to-analog converter (DAC) nonlinearities in the feedback of the last stage, dynamic element matching (DEM) is introduced. This paper presents two modelling approaches: The first is MATLAB description and the second is VHDL-AMS modelling of the proposed architecture and exposes some high-level-simulation results allowing a behavioural study. The detail of both ideal and non-ideal behaviour modelling are presented. Then, the study of the effect of building blocks nonidealities is presented; especially the influences of nonlinearity, finite operational amplifier gain, amplifier slew rate limitation and capacitor mismatch. A VHDL-AMS description presents a good solution to predict system-s performances and can provide sensitivity curves giving the impact of nonidealities on the system performance.

Keywords: behavioural study, DAC nonlinearity, DEM, ΣΔ modulator, VHDL-AMS modelling.

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8863 Investigation on Mesh Sensitivity of a Transient Model for Nozzle Clogging

Authors: H. Barati, M. Wu, A. Kharicha, A. Ludwig

Abstract:

A transient model for nozzle clogging has been developed and successfully validated against a laboratory experiment. Key steps of clogging are considered: transport of particles by turbulent flow towards the nozzle wall; interactions between fluid flow and nozzle wall, and the adhesion of the particle on the wall; the growth of the clog layer and its interaction with the flow. The current paper is to investigate the mesh (size and type) sensitivity of the model in both two and three dimensions. It is found that the algorithm for clog growth alone excluding the flow effect is insensitive to the mesh type and size, but the calculation including flow becomes sensitive to the mesh quality. The use of 2D meshes leads to overestimation of the clog growth because the 3D nature of flow in the boundary layer cannot be properly solved by 2D calculation. 3D simulation with tetrahedron mesh can also lead to an error estimation of the clog growth. A mesh-independent result can be achieved with hexahedral mesh, or at least with triangular prism (inflation layer) for near-wall regions.

Keywords: Clogging, nozzle, numerical model, simulation.

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8862 Investigation of Split TCSC on Kanpur-Ballabhgarh Transmission System

Authors: S. Meikandasivam, D. Vijayakumar, Rajesh Kumar Nema, Shailendra Kumar Jain

Abstract:

This paper investigates the performance of the single TCSC and proposed split TCSC on transmission system where India’s first TCSC project is installed in Kanpur - Ballabhgarh (KB) line to ensure the fine tuning of line reactance by proposed split TCSC in place of existing KB TCSC. A three phase KB transmission system is developed in MATLAB/Simulink (SimPowerSystems) for

  1. without any compensation,
  2. with fixed capacitor (FC),
  3. with FC + existing KB TCSC and
  4. with FC + proposed split TCSC

The KB system is analyzed for a step variation of load and performance of the system is investigated with a closed loop reactance control method.

Keywords: Single TCSC, Split TCSC, TCSC Reactance characteristic curve, Power flow analysis, Sensitivity analysis.

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8861 Information Gain Ratio Based Clustering for Investigation of Environmental Parameters Effects on Human Mental Performance

Authors: H. Mehdi, Kh. S. Karimov, A. A. Kavokin

Abstract:

Methods of clustering which were developed in the data mining theory can be successfully applied to the investigation of different kinds of dependencies between the conditions of environment and human activities. It is known, that environmental parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and illumination have significant effects on the human mental performance. To investigate these parameters effect, data mining technique of clustering using entropy and Information Gain Ratio (IGR) K(Y/X) = (H(X)–H(Y/X))/H(Y) is used, where H(Y)=-ΣPi ln(Pi). This technique allows adjusting the boundaries of clusters. It is shown that the information gain ratio (IGR) grows monotonically and simultaneously with degree of connectivity between two variables. This approach has some preferences if compared, for example, with correlation analysis due to relatively smaller sensitivity to shape of functional dependencies. Variant of an algorithm to implement the proposed method with some analysis of above problem of environmental effects is also presented. It was shown that proposed method converges with finite number of steps.

Keywords: Clustering, Correlation analysis, EnvironmentalParameters, Information Gain Ratio, Mental Performance.

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8860 A Novel Stator Resistance Estimation Method and Control Design of Speed-Sensorless Induction Motor Drives

Authors: N. Ben Si Ali, N. Benalia, N. Zarzouri

Abstract:

Speed sensorless systems are intensively studied during recent years; this is mainly due to their economical benefit and fragility of mechanical sensors and also the difficulty of installing this type of sensor in many applications. These systems suffer from instability problems and sensitivity to parameter mismatch at low speed operation. In this paper an analysis of adaptive observer stability with stator resistance estimation is given.

Keywords: Motor drive, sensorless control, adaptive observer, stator resistance estimation.

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8859 Congestion Management in a Deregulated Power System with Micro Grid

Authors: Guguloth Ramesh, T. K. Sunil Kumar

Abstract:

This paper presents congestion management in deregulated power systems. In a deregulated environment, every buyer wants to buy power from the cheapest generator available, irrespective of relative geographical location of buyer and seller. As a consequence of this, the transmission corridors evacuating the power of cheaper generators would get overloaded if all such transactions are approved. Congestion management is a mechanism to prioritize the transactions and commit to such a schedule which would not overload the network. The congestions in the transmission lines are determined by Optimal Power Flow (OPF) solution, which is carried by primal liner programming method. Congestion in the transmission lines are alleviated by connected Distributed Generation (DG) of micro grid at load bus. A method to determine the optimal location of DG unit has been suggested based on transmission line relief sensitivity based approach. The effectiveness of proposed method has been demonstrated on modified IEEE-14 and 30 bus test systems.

Keywords: Congestion management, Distribution Generation (DG), Transmission Line Relief (TLR) sensitivity index, OPF.

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8858 Energy Loss Reduction in Oil Refineries through Flare Gas Recovery Approaches

Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

Abstract:

For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C3 and C4 content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: Flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis.

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8857 Advanced Numerical and Analytical Methods for Assessing Concrete Sewers and Their Remaining Service Life

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

Abstract:

Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: Reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model.

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8856 Experimental Investigation into Chaotic Features of Flow Gauges in Automobile Fuel Metering System

Authors: S. K. Fasogbon

Abstract:

Chaotic system may lead to instability, extreme sensitivity and performance reduction in control systems. It is therefore important to understand the causes of such undesirable characteristics in control system especially in the automobile fuel gauges. This is because without accurate fuel gauges in automobile systems, it will be difficult if not impossible to embark on a journey whether during odd hours of the day or where fuel is difficult to obtain. To this end, this work studied the impacts of fuel tank rust and faulty component of fuel gauge system (voltage stabilizer) on the chaotic characteristics of fuel gauges. The results obtained were analyzed using Graph iSOFT package. Over the range of experiments conducted, the results obtained showed that rust effect of the fuel tank would alter the flow density, consequently the fluid pressure and ultimately the flow velocity of the fuel. The responses of the fuel gauge pointer to the faulty voltage stabilizer were erratic causing noticeable instability of gauge measurands indicated. The experiment also showed that the fuel gauge performed optimally by indicating the highest degree of accuracy when combined the effect of rust free tank and non-faulty voltage stabilizer conditions (± 6.75% measurand error) as compared to only the rust free tank situation (± 15% measurand error) and only the non-faulty voltage stabilizer condition (± 40% measurand error). The study concludes that both the fuel tank rust and the faulty voltage stabilizer gauge component have a significant effect on the sensitivity of fuel gauge and its accuracy ultimately. Also, by the reason of literature, our findings can also be said to be valid for all other fluid meters and gauges applicable in plant machineries and most hydraulic systems.

Keywords: Chaotic system, degree of accuracy, measurand, sensitivity of fuel gauge.

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8855 A Forecast Model for Projecting the Amount of Hazardous Waste

Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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8854 Sensitivity Analysis of Real-Time Systems

Authors: Benjamin Gorry, Andrew Ireland, Peter King

Abstract:

Verification of real-time software systems can be expensive in terms of time and resources. Testing is the main method of proving correctness but has been shown to be a long and time consuming process. Everyday engineers are usually unwilling to adopt formal approaches to correctness because of the overhead associated with developing their knowledge of such techniques. Performance modelling techniques allow systems to be evaluated with respect to timing constraints. This paper describes PARTES, a framework which guides the extraction of performance models from programs written in an annotated subset of C.

Keywords: Performance Modelling, Real-time, SensitivityAnalysis.

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8853 Fluorescent-Core Microcavities Based On Silicon Quantum Dots for Oil Sensing Applications

Authors: V. Zamora, Z. Zhang, A. Meldrum

Abstract:

The compatibility of optical resonators with microfluidic systems may be relevant for chemical and biological applications. Here, a fluorescent-core microcavity (FCM) is investigated as a refractometric sensor for heavy oils. A high-index film of silicon quantum dots (QDs) was formed inside the capillary, supporting cylindrical fluorescence whispering gallery modes (WGMs). A set of standard refractive index oils was injected into a capillary, causing a shift of the WGM resonances toward longer wavelengths. A maximum sensitivity of 240 nm/RIU (refractive index unit) was found for a nominal oil index of 1.74. As well, a sensitivity of 22 nm/RIU was obtained for a lower index of 1.48, more typical of fuel hydrocarbons. Furthermore, the observed spectra and sensitivities were compared to theoretical predictions and reproduced via FDTD simulations, showing in general an excellent agreement. This work demonstrates the potential use of FCMs for oil sensing applications and the more generally for detecting liquid solutions with a high refractive index or high viscosity.

Keywords: Oils, optical resonators, sensing applications, whispering gallery modes.

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8852 Skin Lesion Segmentation Using Color Channel Optimization and Clustering-based Histogram Thresholding

Authors: Rahil Garnavi, Mohammad Aldeen, M. Emre Celebi, Alauddin Bhuiyan, Constantinos Dolianitis, George Varigos

Abstract:

Automatic segmentation of skin lesions is the first step towards the automated analysis of malignant melanoma. Although numerous segmentation methods have been developed, few studies have focused on determining the most effective color space for melanoma application. This paper proposes an automatic segmentation algorithm based on color space analysis and clustering-based histogram thresholding, a process which is able to determine the optimal color channel for detecting the borders in dermoscopy images. The algorithm is tested on a set of 30 high resolution dermoscopy images. A comprehensive evaluation of the results is provided, where borders manually drawn by four dermatologists, are compared to automated borders detected by the proposed algorithm, applying three previously used metrics of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and a new metric of similarity. By performing ROC analysis and ranking the metrics, it is demonstrated that the best results are obtained with the X and XoYoR color channels, resulting in an accuracy of approximately 97%. The proposed method is also compared with two state-of-theart skin lesion segmentation methods.

Keywords: Border detection, Color space analysis, Dermoscopy, Histogram thresholding, Melanoma, Segmentation.

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8851 Efficiency of Geocell Reinforcement for Using in Expanded Polystyrene Embankments via Numerical Analysis

Authors: S. N. Moghaddas Tafreshi, S. M. Amin Ghotbi

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical study for investigating the effectiveness of geocell reinforcement in reducing pressure and settlement over EPS geofoam blocks in road embankments. A 3-D FEM model of soil and geofoam was created in ABAQUS, and geocell was also modeled realistically using membrane elements. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparing its results with previous works. Sensitivity analyses showed that reinforcing the soil cover with geocell has a significant influence on the reduction of imposed stresses over geofoam and consequently decreasing its deformation.

Keywords: EPS geofoam, road embankments, geocell, reinforcement, lightweight fill.

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8850 The Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Pool Using MELCOR2.1/SNAP

Authors: Y. Chiang, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, Y. S. Tseng, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of Spent Fuel Pools (SFPs) in Taiwan after Fukushima event. In order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP SFP, by using MELCOR2.1 and SNAP, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed combined with the mitigation strategy of NEI 06-12 report. There were several steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established by MELCOR2.1/SNAP. Second, the Station Blackout (SBO) analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition. The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case. Second, the mitigation strategy analysis was done with the MELCOR model by following the NEI 06-12 report. The results showed the effectiveness of NEI 06-12 strategy in Kuosheng NPP SFP. Finally, a sensitivity study of SFP quenching was done to check the differences of different water injection time and the phenomena during the quenching. The results showed that if the cladding temperature was over 1600 K, the water injection may have chance to cause the accident more severe with more hydrogen generation. It was because of the oxidation heat and the “Breakaway” effect of the zirconium-water reaction. An animation model built by SNAP was also shown in this study.

Keywords: MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool, quenching.

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8849 Project Complexity Indices based on Topology Features

Authors: Amer A. Boushaala

Abstract:

The heuristic decision rules used for project scheduling will vary depending upon the project-s size, complexity, duration, personnel, and owner requirements. The concept of project complexity has received little detailed attention. The need to differentiate between easy and hard problem instances and the interest in isolating the fundamental factors that determine the computing effort required by these procedures inspired a number of researchers to develop various complexity measures. In this study, the most common measures of project complexity are presented. A new measure of project complexity is developed. The main privilege of the proposed measure is that, it considers size, shape and logic characteristics, time characteristics, resource demands and availability characteristics as well as number of critical activities and critical paths. The degree of sensitivity of the proposed measure for complexity of project networks has been tested and evaluated against the other measures of complexity of the considered fifty project networks under consideration in the current study. The developed measure showed more sensitivity to the changes in the network data and gives accurate quantified results when comparing the complexities of networks.

Keywords: Activity networks, Complexity index, Networkcomplexity measure, Network topology, Project Network.

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8848 An IM-COH Algorithm Neural Network Optimization with Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Time Series Samples

Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

Abstract:

Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization.

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8847 Effect of Environmental Parameters on the Water Solubility of the Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Derivatives Using Taguchi Experimental Design Methodology

Authors: P. Pimsee, C. Sablayrolles, P. de Caro, J. Guyomarch, N. Lesage, M. Montréjaud-Vignoles

Abstract:

The MIGR’HYCAR research project was initiated to provide decisional tools for risks connected to oil spill drifts in continental waters. These tools aim to serve in the decision-making process once oil spill pollution occurs and/or as reference tools to study scenarios of potential impacts of pollutions on a given site. This paper focuses on the study of the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and derivatives from oil spill in water as function of environmental parameters. Eight petroleum oils covering a representative range of commercially available products were tested. 41 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and derivates, among them 16 EPA priority pollutants were studied by dynamic tests at laboratory scale. The chemical profile of the water soluble fraction was different from the parent oil profile due to the various water solubility of oil components. Semi-volatile compounds (naphtalenes) constitute the major part of the water soluble fraction. A large variation in composition of the water soluble fraction was highlighted depending on oil type. Moreover, four environmental parameters (temperature, suspended solid quantity, salinity and oil: water surface ratio) were investigated with the Taguchi experimental design methodology. The results showed that oils are divided into three groups: the solubility of Domestic fuel and Jet A1 presented a high sensitivity to parameters studied, meaning they must be taken into account. For Gasoline (SP95-E10) and Diesel fuel, a medium sensitivity to parameters was observed. In fact, the four others oils have shown low sensitivity to parameters studied. Finally, three parameters were found to be significant towards the water soluble fraction.

Keywords: Monitoring, PAHs, SBSE, water soluble fraction, Taguchi experimental design.

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8846 Novel Nanomagnetic Beads Based - Latex Agglutination Assay for Rapid Diagnosis of Human Schistosomiasis Haematobium

Authors: Ibrahim Aly , Rabab Zalat, Bahaa EL Deen W. El Aswad, Ismail M. Moharm , Basam M. Masoud, Tarek Diab

Abstract:

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the novel nanomagnetic beads based–latex agglutination assay (NMB-LAT) as a simple test for diagnosis of S. haematobium as well as standardize the novel nanomagnetic beads based –ELISA (NMB-ELISA). According to urine examination this study included 85 S. haematobium infected patients, 30 other parasites infected patients and 25 negative control samples. The sensitivity of novel NMB-LAT was 82.4% versus 96.5% and 88.2% for NMB-ELISA and currently used sandwich ELISA respectively. The specificity of NMB-LAT was 83.6% versus 96.3% and 87.3% for NMB-ELISA and currently used sandwich ELISA respectively. In conclusion, the novel NMB-ELISA is a valuable applicable diagnostic technique for diagnosis of human schistosomiasis haematobium. The novel NMB-ELISA assay is a suitable applicable diagnostic method in field survey especially when followed by ELISA as a confirmatory test in query false negative results. Trials are required to increase the sensitivity and specificity of NMB-ELISA assay.

Keywords: Diagnosis, Latex agglutination, Nanomagnetic beads, Sandwich ELISA.

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8845 Fuzzy Set Approach to Study Appositives and Its Impact Due to Positional Alterations

Authors: E. Mike Dison, T. Pathinathan

Abstract:

Computing with Words (CWW) and Possibilistic Relational Universal Fuzzy (PRUF) are the two concepts which widely represent and measure the vaguely defined natural phenomenon. In this paper, we study the positional alteration of the phrases by which the impact of a natural language proposition gets affected and/or modified. We observe the gradations due to sensitivity/feeling of a statement towards the positional alterations. We derive the classification and modification of the meaning of words due to the positional alteration. We present the results with reference to set theoretic interpretations.

Keywords: Appositive, computing with words, PRUF, semantic sentiment analysis, set theoretic interpretations.

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8844 Enhanced Data Access Control of Cooperative Environment used for DMU Based Design

Authors: Wei Lifan, Zhang Huaiyu, Yang Yunbin, Li Jia

Abstract:

Through the analysis of the process digital design based on digital mockup, the fact indicates that a distributed cooperative supporting environment is the foundation conditions to adopt design approach based on DMU. Data access authorization is concerned firstly because the value and sensitivity of the data for the enterprise. The access control for administrators is often rather weak other than business user. So authors established an enhanced system to avoid the administrators accessing the engineering data by potential approach and without authorization. Thus the data security is improved.

Keywords: access control, DMU, PLM, virtual prototype.

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8843 Obtaining Constants of Johnson-Cook Material Model Using a Combined Experimental, Numerical Simulation and Optimization Method

Authors: F. Rahimi Dehgolan, M. Behzadi, J. Fathi Sola

Abstract:

In this article, the Johnson-Cook material model’s constants for structural steel ST.37 have been determined by a method which integrates experimental tests, numerical simulation, and optimization. In the first step, a quasi-static test was carried out on a plain specimen. Next, the constants were calculated for it by minimizing the difference between the results acquired from the experiment and numerical simulation. Then, a quasi-static tension test was performed on three notched specimens with different notch radii. At last, in order to verify the results, they were used in numerical simulation of notched specimens and it was observed that experimental and simulation results are in good agreement. Changing the diameter size of the plain specimen in the necking area was set as the objective function in the optimization step. For final validation of the proposed method, diameter variation was considered as a parameter and its sensitivity to a change in any of the model constants was examined and the results were completely corroborating.

Keywords: Constants, Johnson-Cook material model, notched specimens, quasi-static test, sensitivity.

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8842 Numerical Analysis of Laminar to Turbulent Transition on the DU91-W2-250 Airfoil

Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, G. Grandi, E. Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a study of laminar to turbulent transition on a profile specifically designed for wind turbine blades, the DU91-W2-250, which belongs to a class of wind turbine dedicated airfoils, developed by Delft University of Technology. A comparison between the experimental behavior of the airfoil studied at Delft wind tunnel and the numerical predictions of the commercial CFD solver ANSYS FLUENT® has been performed. The prediction capabilities of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and of the γ-θ Transitional model have been tested. A sensitivity analysis of the numerical results to the spatial domain discretization has also been performed using four different computational grids, which have been created using the mesher GAMBIT®. The comparison between experimental measurements and CFD results have allowed to determine the importance of the numerical prediction of the laminar to turbulent transition, in order not to overestimate airfoil friction drag due to a fully turbulent-regime flow computation.

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine, DU91-W2-250, laminar to turbulent transition.

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8841 Contrast-Enhanced Multispectal Upconversion Fluorescence Analysis for High-Resolution in-vivo Deep Tissue Imaging

Authors: Lijiang Wang, Wei Wang, Yuhong Xu

Abstract:

Lanthanide-doped upconversion nanoparticles which can convert near-infrared lights to visible lights have attracted growing interest because of their great potentials in fluorescence imaging. Upconversion fluorescence imaging technique with excitation in the near-infrared (NIR) region has been used for imaging of biological cells and tissues. However, improving the detection sensitivity and decreasing the absorption and scattering in biological tissues are as yet unresolved problems. In this present study, a novel NIR-reflected multispectral imaging system was developed for upconversion fluorescent imaging in small animals. Based on this system, we have obtained the high contrast images without the autofluorescence when biocompatible UCPs were injected near the body surface or deeply into the tissue. Furthermore, we have extracted respective spectra of the upconversion fluorescence and relatively quantify the fluorescence intensity with the multispectral analysis. To our knowledge, this is the first time to analyze and quantify the upconversion fluorescence in the small animal imaging.

Keywords: Multispectral imaging, near-infrared, upconversion fluorescence imaging, upconversion nanoparticles.

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8840 Holografic Interferometry used for Measurement of Temperature Field in Fluid

Authors: Vít Lédl, Tomáš Vít, Pavel Psota, Roman Doleček

Abstract:

The presented paper shows the possibility of using holographic interferometry for measurement of temperature field in moving fluids. There are a few methods for identification of velocity fields in fluids, such us LDA, PIV, hot wire anemometry. It is very difficult to measure the temperature field in moving fluids. One of the often used methods is Constant Current Anemometry (CCA), which is a point temperature measurement method. Data are possibly acquired at frequencies up to 1000Hz. This frequency should be limiting factor for using of CCA in fluid when fast change of temperature occurs. This shortcoming of CCA measurements should be overcome by using of optical methods such as holographic interferometry. It is necessary to employ a special holographic setup with double sensitivity instead of the commonly used Mach-Zehnder type of holographic interferometer in order to attain the parameters sufficient for the studied case. This setup is not light efficient like the Mach-Zehnder type but has double sensitivity. The special technique of acquiring and phase averaging of results from holographic interferometry is also presented. The results from the holographic interferometry experiments will be compared with the temperature field achieved by methods CCA method.

Keywords: Holographic interferometry, pulsatile flow, temperature measurement, hot-wire anemometry

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8839 Assessment of Predictive Confounders for the Prevalence of Breast Cancer among Iraqi Population: A Retrospective Study from Baghdad, Iraq

Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

Abstract:

Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m2. 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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