Search results for: Performance Modelling

Authors: Ruibiao J. Guo, Brad Cain, Pierre Meunier

Abstract:

The Integrated Performance Modelling Environment (IPME) is a powerful simulation engine for task simulation and performance analysis. However, it has no high level cognition such as memory and reasoning for complex simulation. This article introduces a knowledge representation and reasoning scheme that can accommodate uncertainty in simulations of military personnel with IPME. This approach demonstrates how advanced reasoning models that support similarity-based associative process, rule-based abstract process, multiple reasoning methods and real-time interaction can be integrated with conventional task network modelling to provide greater functionality and flexibility when modelling operator performance.

Keywords: Computer-Generated Forces, Human Behaviour Representation, IPME, Modelling and Simulation, Uncertainty Reasoning

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Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

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Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: Coloured petri nets, concurrent users, performance modelling, web application architecture.

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Authors: Benjamin Gorry, Andrew Ireland, Peter King

Abstract:

Verification of real-time software systems can be expensive in terms of time and resources. Testing is the main method of proving correctness but has been shown to be a long and time consuming process. Everyday engineers are usually unwilling to adopt formal approaches to correctness because of the overhead associated with developing their knowledge of such techniques. Performance modelling techniques allow systems to be evaluated with respect to timing constraints. This paper describes PARTES, a framework which guides the extraction of performance models from programs written in an annotated subset of C.

Keywords: Performance Modelling, Real-time, SensitivityAnalysis.

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Authors: B. A. Gobin, R. K. Subramanian

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Knowledge modelling, a main activity for the development of Knowledge Based Systems, have no set standards and are mostly done in an ad hoc way. There is a lack of support for the transition from abstract level to implementation. In this paper, a methodology for the development of the knowledge model, which is inspired by both Software and Knowledge Engineering, is proposed. Use of UML which is the de-facto standard for modelling in the software engineering arena is explored for knowledge modelling. The methodology proposed, is used to develop a knowledge model of a knowledge based system for recommending suitable hotels for tourists visiting Mauritius.

Keywords: Domain Modelling, Knowledge Based Systems, Knowledge Modelling, UML.

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Authors: Raida El Mansouri, Elhillali Kerkouche, Allaoua Chaoui

Abstract:

The Petri net tool INA is a well known tool by the Petri net community. However, it lacks a graphical environment to cerate and analyse INA models. Building a modelling tool for the design and analysis from scratch (for INA tool for example) is generally a prohibitive task. Meta-Modelling approach is useful to deal with such problems since it allows the modelling of the formalisms themselves. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the combined use of Meta-modelling and Graph Grammars to automatically generate a visual modelling tool for INA for analysis purposes. In our approach, the UML Class diagram formalism is used to define a meta-model of INA models. The meta-modelling tool ATOM3 is used to generate a visual modelling tool according to the proposed INA meta-model. We have also proposed a graph grammar to automatically generate INA description of the graphically specified Petri net models. This allows the user to avoid the errors when this description is done manually. Then the INA tool is used to perform the simulation and the analysis of the resulted INA description. Our environment is illustrated through an example.

Keywords: INA, Meta-modelling, Graph Grammars, AToM3, Automatic Code Generation.

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Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

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Modelling and simulation provide effective way to acquire engineering experience. An active approach to modelling and simulation proposed in the paper involves, beside the compulsory part directed by the traditional step-by-step instructions, the new optional part basing on the human’s habits to design thus stimulating the efforts towards success in active learning. Computer exercises as a part of engineering curriculum incorporate a set of effective activities. In addition to the knowledge acquired in theoretical training, the described educational arrangement helps to develop problem solutions, computation skills, and experimentation performance along with enhancement of practical experience and qualification.

Keywords: Modelling, simulation, engineering education, electronics, active learning.

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

Abstract:

This paper presents equivalent circuit modeling of active planar reflectors which can be used for the detailed analysis and characterization of reflector performance in terms of lumped components. Equivalent circuit representation has been proposed for PIN diodes and liquid crystal based active planar reflectors designed within X-band frequency range. A very close agreement has been demonstrated between equivalent circuit results, 3D EM simulated results as well as measured scattering parameter results. In the case of measured results, a maximum discrepancy of 1.05dB was observed in the reflection loss performance, which can be attributed to the losses occurred during measurement process.

Keywords: Equivalent circuit modelling, planar reflectors, reflectarray antenna, PIN diode, liquid crystal.

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Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman

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In electrical discharge machining (EDM), a complete and clear theory has not yet been established. The developed theory (physical models) yields results far from reality due to the complexity of the physics. It is difficult to select proper parameter settings in order to achieve better EDM performance. However, modelling can solve this critical problem concerning the parameter settings. Therefore, the purpose of the present work is to develop mathematical model to predict performance characteristics of EDM on Ti-5Al-2.5Sn titanium alloy. Response surface method (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) are employed to develop the mathematical models. The developed models are verified through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The ANN models are trained, tested, and validated utilizing a set of data. It is found that the developed ANN and mathematical model can predict performance of EDM effectively. Thus, the model has found a precise tool that turns EDM process cost-effective and more efficient.

Keywords: Analysis of variance, artificial neural network, material removal rate, modelling, response surface method, surface finish.

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Authors: S. Zouari, H. Daoud, M. Loulou, P. Loumeau, N. Masmoudi

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A wideband 2-1-1 cascaded ΣΔ modulator with a single-bit quantizer in the two first stages and a 4-bit quantizer in the final stage is developed. To reduce sensitivity of digital-to-analog converter (DAC) nonlinearities in the feedback of the last stage, dynamic element matching (DEM) is introduced. This paper presents two modelling approaches: The first is MATLAB description and the second is VHDL-AMS modelling of the proposed architecture and exposes some high-level-simulation results allowing a behavioural study. The detail of both ideal and non-ideal behaviour modelling are presented. Then, the study of the effect of building blocks nonidealities is presented; especially the influences of nonlinearity, finite operational amplifier gain, amplifier slew rate limitation and capacitor mismatch. A VHDL-AMS description presents a good solution to predict system-s performances and can provide sensitivity curves giving the impact of nonidealities on the system performance.

Keywords: behavioural study, DAC nonlinearity, DEM, ΣΔ modulator, VHDL-AMS modelling.

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Authors: M. Harir, A. Bendiabdellah, A. Chaouch, N. Benouzza

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This paper deals with the modelling and simulation of the squirrel cage induction motor by taking into account all space harmonic components as well as the introduction of the bars skew in the calculation of the linear evolution of the magnetomotive force (MMF) between the slots extremities. The model used is based on multiple coupled circuits and the modified winding function approach (MWFA). The effect of skewing is included in the calculation of motors inductances with an axial asymmetry in the rotor. The simulation results in both time and spectral domains show the effectiveness and merits of the model and the error that may be caused if the skew of the bars are neglected.

Keywords: Modelling, MWFA, Skew effect, Squirrel cage induction motor, Spectral domain.

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Authors: Adesoji T. Jaiyeola, Josiah Adeyemo

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This paper presents an extensive review of literature relevant to the modelling techniques adopted in sediment yield and hydrological modelling. Several studies relating to sediment yield are discussed. Many research areas of sedimentation in rivers, runoff and reservoirs are presented. Different types of hydrological models, different methods employed in selecting appropriate models for different case studies are analysed. Applications of evolutionary algorithms and artificial intelligence techniques are discussed and compared especially in water resources management and modelling. This review concentrates on Genetic Programming (GP) and fully discusses its theories and applications. The successful applications of GP as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat, over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP are highlighted. This paper concludes with the identification of some research gaps in hydrological modelling and sediment yield.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, evolutionary algorithm, genetic programming, sediment yield.

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Authors: Csaba Tóth, Éva Lakatos, László Pethő, Seoyoung Cho

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The temperature effect on asphalt pavement structure is a crucial factor at the design stage. In this paper, by applying the German guidelines for temperature along the asphalt depth is estimated. The aim is to consider temperature profiles in different seasons in numerical modelling. The model is built with an elastic and isotropic solid element with 19 subdivisions of asphalt layers to reflect the temperature variation. Comparison with the simple three-layer pavement system (asphalt layers, base, and subgrade layers) will be followed to see the difference in result without temperature variation along with the depth. Finally, the fatigue life calculation was checked to prove the validity of the methodology of considering the temperature in the numerical modelling.

Keywords: Temperature profile, flexible pavement modelling, finite element method, temperature modelling.

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Authors: Oluwaseyi O. Taiwo, Adeolu A. Adediran, Abayomi A. Akinwande, Frank C. Okoyeh

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The use of fuel fired crucible furnace is essential in the foundries of developing countries owing to the luxury of electricity. Fuel fired crucible furnace are commonly used in recycling, casting, research and training activities in tertiary institutions, therefore, several attempts are being made to improve the performance and service life of fuel fired crucible. The current study reviews the sequential stages involved in the designs and fabrication of fuel fired crucible furnace which include; design, material selection, modelling and simulation as well as performance evaluation. The study shows that selecting appropriate materials for the different units in the fabrication process is important to the efficiency and service life of fuel fired crucible furnaces. Also, efficiency and performance of fuel fired furnaces are independent of cost of fabrication and their capacity. The importance of modelling and simulation tools in the fabrication process are identified while their non-frequent usage in several works is observed. The need to widen performance evaluations in further studies beyond efficiency determination to give a more detailed assessment of fuel fired crucible furnaces is also observed.

Keywords: Crucible furnace, furnace design, fabrication, fuel.

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Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: Surface roughness, fused deposition modelling, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, orientation.

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: Computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling.

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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Authors: D. D. Vaziri, D. DeOliveira

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This article concerns with the accessibility of Business process modelling tools (BPMo tools) and business process modelling languages (BPMo languages). Therefore the reader will be introduced to business process management and the authors' motivation behind this inquiry. Afterwards, the paper will reflect problems when applying inaccessible BPMo tools. To illustrate these problems the authors distinguish between two different categories of issues and provide practical examples. Finally the article will present three approaches to improve the accessibility of BPMo tools and BPMo languages.

Keywords: Accessibility, Business Process Management, BPM, Event Process Chains, Modelling Languages

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Authors: Susmita Sahoo, Madhumanti Datta, Rajib Kar

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Fast delay estimation methods, as opposed to simulation techniques, are needed for incremental performance driven layout synthesis. On-chip inductive effects are becoming predominant in deep submicron interconnects due to increasing clock speed and circuit complexity. Inductance causes noise in signal waveforms, which can adversely affect the performance of the circuit and signal integrity. Several approaches have been put forward which consider the inductance for on-chip interconnect modelling. But for even much higher frequency, of the order of few GHz, the shunt dielectric lossy component has become comparable to that of other electrical parameters for high speed VLSI design. In order to cope up with this effect, on-chip interconnect has to be modelled as distributed RLCG line. Elmore delay based methods, although efficient, cannot accurately estimate the delay for RLCG interconnect line. In this paper, an accurate analytical delay model has been derived, based on first and second moments of RLCG interconnection lines. The proposed model considers both the effect of inductance and conductance matrices. We have performed the simulation in 0.18μm technology node and an error of as low as less as 5% has been achieved with the proposed model when compared to SPICE. The importance of the conductance matrices in interconnect modelling has also been discussed and it is shown that if G is neglected for interconnect line modelling, then it will result an delay error of as high as 6% when compared to SPICE.

Keywords: Delay Modelling; On-Chip Interconnect; RLCGInterconnect; Ramp Input; Damping; VLSI

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Authors: R. Kalantari, G. Hafeez

Abstract:

The paper presents outcomes of the numerical research performed on standard and dovetail corner joints under lateral loads. An overview of the past research on log shear walls is also presented. To the authors’ best knowledge, currently, there are no specific design guidelines available in the code for the design of log shear walls, implying the need to investigate the performance of log shear walls. This research explores the performance of the log shear wall corner joint system of standard joint and dovetail types using numerical methods based on research available in the literature. A parametric study is performed to study the effect of gap size provided between two orthogonal logs and the presence of wood and steel dowels provided as joinery between log courses on the performance of such a structural system. The research outcomes are the force-displacement curves. Variability of 8% is seen in the reaction forces with the change of gap size for the case of the standard joint, while a variation of 10% is observed in the reaction forces for the dovetail joint system.

Keywords: dovetail joint, finite element modelling, log shear walls, standard joint

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Authors: E. Kaygan, A. Gatto

Abstract:

An investigation of adaptable winglets for enhancing morphing aircraft performance is described in this paper. The concepts investigated consist of various winglet configurations fundamentally centered on a baseline swept wing. The impetus for the work was to identify and optimize winglets to enhance the aerodynamic efficiency of a morphing aircraft. All computations were performed with Athena Vortex Lattice modelling with varying degrees of twist and cant angle considered. The results from this work indicate that if adaptable winglets were employed on aircraft’s improvements in aircraft performance could be achieved.

Keywords: Aircraft, drag, twist, winglet.

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Authors: Vishnu S. Prasad, Preeti Aghalayam

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The major harmful automobile exhausts are nitric oxide (NO) and unburned hydrocarbon (HC). Reduction of NO using unburned fuel HC as a reductant is the technique used in hydrocarbon-selective catalytic reduction (HC-SCR). In this work, we study the microkinetic modelling of NO reduction using propene as a reductant on Pt catalysts. The selectivity of NO reduction to N₂O is detected in some ranges of operating conditions, whereas the effect of inlet O₂% causes a number of changes in the feasible regimes of operation.

Keywords: Microkinetic modelling, NOx, Pt on alumina catalysts, selective catalytic reduction.

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Authors: M. Capocelli, A. Caputo, M. De Falco, D. Mazzei, V. Piemonte

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This paper presents the experimental results and the related modeling of a thermal energy storage (TES) facility, ideated and realized by ENEA and realizing the thermocline with an innovative geometry. Firstly, the thermal energy exchange model of an equivalent shell & tube heat exchanger is described and tested to reproduce the performance of the spiral exchanger installed in the TES. Through the regression of the experimental data, a first-order thermocline model was also validated to provide an analytical function of the thermocline, useful for the performance evaluation and the comparison with other systems and implementation in simulations of integrated systems (e.g. power plants). The experimental data obtained from the plant start-up and the short-cut modeling of the system can be useful for the process analysis, for the scale-up of the thermal storage system and to investigate the feasibility of its implementation in actual case-studies.

Keywords: Thermocline, modelling, heat exchange, spiral, shell, tube.

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Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

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Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development process and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: Cost Estimation, Effort Estimation, Process Modelling, Business Process Management, COCOMO.

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Authors: Emmanuel O.O. Ojakominor, Tian F. Lai

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A handful of propagation textbooks that discuss radio frequency (RF) propagation models merely list out the models and perhaps discuss them rather briefly; this may well be frustrating for the potential first time modeller who's got no idea on how these models could have been derived. This paper fundamentally provides an overture in modelling the radio channel. Explicitly, for the modelling practice discussed here, signal strength field measurements had to be conducted beforehand (this was done at 469 MHz); to be precise, this paper primarily concerns empirically/statistically modelling the radio channel, and thus provides results obtained from empirically modelling the environments in question. This paper, on the whole, proposes three propagation models, corresponding to three experimented environments. Perceptibly, the models have been derived by way of making the most use of statistical measures. Generally speaking, the first two models were derived via simple linear regression analysis, whereas the third have been originated using multiple regression analysis (with five various predictors). Additionally, as implied by the title of this paper, both indoor and outdoor environments have been experimented; however, (somewhat) two of the environments are neither entirely indoor nor entirely outdoor. The other environment, however, is completely indoor.

Keywords: RF propagation, radio channel modelling, statistical methods.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, J. Kellner, J. Navrátil, D. Pluskal, M. Kozubková, E. Kozubek

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The paper deals with the possibilities of modelling vapour propagation of explosive substances in the FLUENT software. With regard to very low tensions of explosive substance vapours the experiment has been verified as exemplified by mononitrotoluene. Either constant or time variable meteorological conditions have been used for calculation. Further, it has been verified that the eluent source may be time-dependent and may reflect a real situation or the liberation rate may be constant. The execution of the experiment as well as evaluation were clear and it could also be used for modelling vapour and aerosol propagation of selected explosive substances in the atmospheric boundary layer.

Keywords: atmospheric boundary layer, explosive substances, FLUENT software, modelling of propagation

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Authors: Eisa A. Alsafran, Francis T. Edum-Fotwe, Wayne E. Lord

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The degree to which a public client actively participates in Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes, is seen as a determinant of the success of the arrangement, and in particular, efficiency in the delivery of the assets of any infrastructure development. The asset delivery is often an early barometer for judging the overall performance of the PPP. Currently, there are no defined descriptors for the degree of such participation. The lack of defined descriptors makes the association between the degree of participation and efficiency of asset delivery, difficult to establish. This is particularly so if an optimum effect is desired. In addition, such an association is important for the strategic decision to embark on any PPP initiative. This paper presents a conceptual model of different levels of participation that characterise PPP schemes. The modelling was achieved by a systematic review of reported sources that address essential aspects and structures of PPP schemes, published from 2001 to 2015. As a precursor to the modelling, the common areas of Public Client Participation (PCP) were investigated. Equity and risk emerged as two dominant factors in the common areas of PCP, and were therefore adopted to form the foundation of the modelling. The resultant conceptual model defines the different states of combined PCP. The defined states provide a more rational basis for establishing how the degree of PCP affects the efficiency of asset delivery in PPP schemes.

Keywords: Asset delivery, infrastructure development, public private partnership, public client participation.

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Authors: E. Kaygan, A. Gatto

Abstract:

An investigation of adaptable winglets for morphing aircraft control and performance is described in this paper. The concepts investigated consist of various winglet configurations fundamentally centred on a baseline swept wing. The impetus for the work was to identify and optimize winglets to enhance controllability and the aerodynamic efficiency of a small unmanned aerial vehicle. All computations were performed with Athena Vortex Lattice modelling with varying degrees of twist, swept, and dihedral angle considered. The results from this work indicate that if adaptable winglets were employed on small scale UAV’s improvements in both aircraft control and performance could be achieved.

Keywords: Aircraft, rolling, wing, winglet.

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Authors: P.C. Ryan, A.J. O' Connor

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Chloride induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is the main cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete marine structures. This paper investigates the relative performance of alternative repair options with respect to the deterioration of reinforced concrete bridge elements in marine environments. Focus is placed on the initiation phase of reinforcement corrosion. A laboratory study is described which involved exposing concrete samples to accelerated chloride-ion ingress. The study examined the relative efficiencies of two repair methods, namely Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) concrete and a concrete which utilised Ground Granulated Blastfurnace Cement (GGBS) as a partial cement replacement. The mix designs and materials utilised were identical to those implemented in the repair of a marine bridge on the South East coast of Ireland in 2007. The results of this testing regime serve to inform input variables employed in probabilistic modelling of deterioration for subsequent reliability based analysis to compare the relative performance of the studied repair options.

Keywords: Deterioration, Marine Bridges, Reinforced Concrete, Reliability, Chloride-ion Ingress

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Authors: A. Youseef, F. Liu

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The existing information system (IS) developments methods are not met the requirements to resolve the security related IS problems and they fail to provide a successful integration of security and systems engineering during all development process stages. Hence, the security should be considered during the whole software development process and identified with the requirements specification. This paper aims to propose an integrated security and IS engineering approach in all software development process stages by using i* language. This proposed framework categorizes into three separate parts: modelling business environment part, modelling information technology system part and modelling IS security part. The results show that considering security IS goals in the whole system development process can have a positive influence on system implementation and better meet business expectations.

Keywords: Business Process Modelling (BPM), Information System Security, Software Development Process, Requirement Engineering.

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Authors: I. Oloyede

Abstract:

The COVID-19 dataset is obtained by extracting weather, longitude, latitude, ISO3666, cases and death of coronavirus patients across the globe. The data were extracted for a period of eight day choosing uniform time within the specified period. Then mapping of cases and deaths with reverence to continents were obtained. Bayesian Geostastical modelling was carried out on the dataset. The study found out that countries in the tropical region suffered less deaths/attacks compared to countries in the temperate region, this is due to high temperature in the tropical region.

Keywords: COVID-19, Bayesian, geostastical modelling, prior, posterior.

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