Search results for: Abductive reasoning

Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

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Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: Criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning.

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Authors: Dení Stincer Gómez, Zuraya Monroy Nasr

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Pedagogy of science historically has given priority to teaching strategies that mobilize the cognitive mechanisms leaving out emotional mechanisms. Modern epistemology, cognitive psychology and psychoanalysis begin to argue and prove that emotions are relevant epistemological functions. They are 1) the selection function: that allows the perception and reason choose, to multiple alternative explanation of a particular fact, those are relevant and discard those that are not, 2) heuristic function: that is related to the activation cognitive processes that are effective in the process of knowing; and 3) the so-called content-bearing function: it argues that emotions provide the material reasoning that is subsequently transformed into linguistic propositions. According to these hypotheses, scientific knowledge seems to come from emotions that meet these functions. This paper argues that science education must start from the presence of certain emotions in the learner if we want to form citizens with a scientific or cultural future.

Keywords: Epistemic emotions, science education, formation of citizens and scientists, epistemic functions of emotions.

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Authors: Tharunika Sridhar

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This paper addresses sustainable eco-connectivity within the telecommunications sector studying its importance to tackle the contemporary challenges and data regulation issues. The paper also investigates the role of Big Data and its integration in this context, specific to telecom industry. One of the major focus areas in this paper is studying and examining the pathways explored, that are state-of-the-art ecological infrastructure solutions and sector-led measures derived from expert analyses and reviews. Additionally, the paper analyses critical factors involving cost-effective route planning, and the development of green telecommunications infrastructure that adds qualitative reasoning to the research idea. Furthermore, the study discusses in detail a potential green roadmap towards sustainability by exploring green routing software, eco-friendly infrastructure and other eco-focused initiatives. The paper is also directed at the special linguistic needs of the telecommunications sector by focusing on targeted select range of telecom environment.

Keywords: Big Data, telecom, sustainable telecom sector, telecom networks.

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing.

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Authors: Abdallah A. Alshennawy, Ayman A. Aly

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The fuzzy technique is an operator introduced in order to simulate at a mathematical level the compensatory behavior in process of decision making or subjective evaluation. The following paper introduces such operators on hand of computer vision application. In this paper a novel method based on fuzzy logic reasoning strategy is proposed for edge detection in digital images without determining the threshold value. The proposed approach begins by segmenting the images into regions using floating 3x3 binary matrix. The edge pixels are mapped to a range of values distinct from each other. The robustness of the proposed method results for different captured images are compared to those obtained with the linear Sobel operator. It is gave a permanent effect in the lines smoothness and straightness for the straight lines and good roundness for the curved lines. In the same time the corners get sharper and can be defined easily.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Edge detection, Image processing, computer vision, Mechanical parts, Measurement.

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Authors: G. Haupt

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Existing literature ondesign reasoning seems to give either one sided accounts on expert design behaviour based on internal processing. In the same way ecological theoriesseem to focus one sidedly on external elementsthat result in a lack of unifying design cognition theory. Although current extended design cognition studies acknowledge the intellectual interaction between internal and external resources, there still seems to be insufficient understanding of the complexities involved in such interactive processes. As such,this paper proposes a novelmulti-directional model for design researchers tomap the complex and dynamic conduct controlling behaviour in which both the computational and ecological perspectives are integrated in a vertical manner. A clear distinction between identified intentional and emerging physical drivers, and relationships between them during the early phases of experts- design process, is demonstrated by presenting a case study in which the model was employed.

Keywords: External representation, early phases, extended design cognition, internal processes and external drivers, conduct controlling behaviour.

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Authors: Ahmed Tawfik, Fausto Giunchiglia, Vincenzo Maltese

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Ontologies provide a common understanding of a specific domain of interest that can be communicated between people and used as background knowledge for automated reasoning in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we address the design of multilingual ontologies following well-defined knowledge engineering methodologies with the support of novel collaborative development approaches. In particular, we present a collaborative platform which allows ontologies to be developed incrementally in multiple languages. This is made possible via an appropriate mapping between language independent concepts and one lexicalization per language (or a lexical gap in case such lexicalization does not exist). The collaborative platform has been designed to support the development of the Universal Knowledge Core, a multilingual ontology currently in English, Italian, Chinese, Mongolian, Hindi and Bangladeshi. Its design follows a workflow-based development methodology that models resources as a set of collaborative objects and assigns customizable workflows to build and maintain each collaborative object in a community driven manner, with extensive support of modern web 2.0 social and collaborative features.

Keywords: Knowledge Diversity, Knowledge Representation, Ontology Development.

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Authors: M. Matash Borujerdi, S.M. Mirzababaei

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As computer network technology becomes increasingly complex, it becomes necessary to place greater requirements on the validity of developing standards and the resulting technology. Communication networks are based on large amounts of protocols. The validity of these protocols have to be proved either individually or in an integral fashion. One strategy for achieving this is to apply the growing field of formal methods. Formal methods research defines systems in high order logic so that automated reasoning can be applied for verification. In this research we represent and implement a formerly announced multicast protocol in Prolog language so that certain properties of the protocol can be verified. It is shown that by using this approach some minor faults in the protocol were found and repaired. Describing the protocol as facts and rules also have other benefits i.e. leads to a process-able knowledge. This knowledge can be transferred as ontology between systems in KQML format. Since the Prolog language can increase its knowledge base every time, this method can also be used to learn an intelligent network.

Keywords: Formal methods, MobiCast, Mobile Network, Multicast.

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Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Bahram Notghi, Golamhassan Paygane

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Vehicle suspension design must fulfill some conflicting criteria. Among those is ride comfort which is attained by minimizing the acceleration transmitted to the sprung mass, via suspension spring and damper. Also good handling of a vehicle is a desirable property which requires stiff suspension and therefore is in contrast with a vehicle with good ride. Among the other desirable features of a suspension is the minimization of the maximum travel of suspension. This travel which is called suspension working space in vehicle dynamics literature is also a design constraint and it favors good ride. In this research a full car 8 degrees of freedom model has been developed and the three above mentioned criteria, namely: ride, handling and working space has been adopted as objective functions. The Multi Objective Programming (MOP) discipline has been used to find the Pareto Front and some reasoning used to chose a design point between these non dominated points of Pareto Front.

Keywords: Vehicle, Ride, Handling, Suspension, Working Space, Multi Objective Programming.

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

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In aviation a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre-sticks, side-sticks, pedals and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging and with them a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare dynamic amplification factors of design described in this paper with classical one. Functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carried out a comfort of use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including literature review, reasoning behind components selection and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: Mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming, rescue missions, rescue robotics.

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Authors: J. L. Andrade-Pineda, J.M. León-Blanco, M. Calle, P. L. González-R

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The enrollment in current Master's degree programs usually pursues gaining the expertise required in real-life workplaces. The experience we present here concerns the learning process of "Project Management Methodology (PMM)", around a cooperative/collaborative mechanism aimed at affording students measurable learning goals and providing the teacher with the ability of focusing on the weaknesses detected. We have designed a mixed summative/formative evaluation, which assures curriculum engage while enriches the comprehension of PMM key concepts. In this experience we converted the students into active actors in the evaluation process itself and we endowed ourselves as teachers with a flexible process in which along with qualifications (score), other attitudinal feedback arises. Despite the high level of self-affirmation on their discussion within the interactive assessment sessions, they ultimately have exhibited a great ability to review and correct the wrong reasoning when that was the case.

Keywords: Cooperative-collaborative learning, educational management, formative-summative assessment, leadership training.

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Authors: B. Al-Naami, N. Gharaibeh, A. AlRazzaq Kheshman

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Alzheimer is known as the loss of mental functions such as thinking, memory, and reasoning that is severe enough to interfere with a person's daily functioning. The appearance of Alzheimer Disease symptoms (AD) are resulted based on which part of the brain has a variety of infection or damage. In this case, the MRI is the best biomedical instrumentation can be ever used to discover the AD existence. Therefore, this paper proposed a fusion method to distinguish between the normal and (AD) MRIs. In this combined method around 27 MRIs collected from Jordanian Hospitals are analyzed based on the use of Low pass -morphological filters to get the extracted statistical outputs through intensity histogram to be employed by the descriptive box plot. Also, the artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to test the performance of this approach. Finally, the obtained result of t-test with confidence accuracy (95%) has compared with classification accuracy of ANN (100 %). The robust of the developed method can be considered effectively to diagnose and determine the type of AD image.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, Brain MRI analysis, Morphological filter, Box plot, Intensity histogram, ANN.

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Authors: Quratulain N. Rajput, Sajjad Haider

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This paper applies Bayesian Networks to support information extraction from unstructured, ungrammatical, and incoherent data sources for semantic annotation. A tool has been developed that combines ontologies, machine learning, and information extraction and probabilistic reasoning techniques to support the extraction process. Data acquisition is performed with the aid of knowledge specified in the form of ontology. Due to the variable size of information available on different data sources, it is often the case that the extracted data contains missing values for certain variables of interest. It is desirable in such situations to predict the missing values. The methodology, presented in this paper, first learns a Bayesian network from the training data and then uses it to predict missing data and to resolve conflicts. Experiments have been conducted to analyze the performance of the presented methodology. The results look promising as the methodology achieves high degree of precision and recall for information extraction and reasonably good accuracy for predicting missing values.

Keywords: Information Extraction, Bayesian Network, ontology, Machine Learning

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Authors: Xia Cui, Guang-wei Yuan, Jing-yan Yue

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A Picard-Newton iteration method is studied to accelerate the numerical solution procedure of a class of two-dimensional nonlinear coupled parabolic-hyperbolic system. The Picard-Newton iteration is designed by adding higher-order terms of small quantity to an existing Picard iteration. The discrete functional analysis and inductive hypothesis reasoning techniques are used to overcome difficulties coming from nonlinearity and coupling, and theoretical analysis is made for the convergence and approximation properties of the iteration scheme. The Picard-Newton iteration has a quadratic convergent ratio, and its solution has second order spatial approximation and first order temporal approximation to the exact solution of the original problem. Numerical tests verify the results of the theoretical analysis, and show the Picard-Newton iteration is more efficient than the Picard iteration.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, iterative acceleration, coupled parabolic hyperbolic system, quadratic convergence, numerical analysis.

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Authors: Liming Zhang

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There have been different approaches to compute the analytic instantaneous frequency with a variety of background reasoning and applicability in practice, as well as restrictions. This paper presents an adaptive Fourier decomposition and (α-counting) based instantaneous frequency computation approach. The adaptive Fourier decomposition is a recently proposed new signal decomposition approach. The instantaneous frequency can be computed through the so called mono-components decomposed by it. Due to the fast energy convergency, the highest frequency of the signal will be discarded by the adaptive Fourier decomposition, which represents the noise of the signal in most of the situation. A new instantaneous frequency definition for a large class of so-called simple waves is also proposed in this paper. Simple wave contains a wide range of signals for which the concept instantaneous frequency has a perfect physical sense. The α-counting instantaneous frequency can be used to compute the highest frequency for a signal. Combination of these two approaches one can obtain the IFs of the whole signal. An experiment is demonstrated the computation procedure with promising results.

Keywords: Adaptive Fourier decomposition, Fourier series, signal processing, instantaneous frequency

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Tu Chunmei, Fu Chunlei, Fu Li, Mao Fan, Ma Yuan

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Chinese Idioms are a type of traditional Chinese idiomatic expressions with specific meanings and stereotypes structure which are widely used in classical Chinese and are still common in vernacular written and spoken Chinese today. Currently, Chinese Idioms are retrieved in glossary with key character or key word in morphology or pronunciation index that can not meet the need of searching semantically. OCIRS is proposed to search the desired idiom in the case of users only knowing its meaning without any key character or key word. The user-s request in a sentence or phrase will be grammatically analyzed in advance by word segmentation, key word extraction and semantic similarity computation, thus can be mapped to the idiom domain ontology which is constructed to provide ample semantic relations and to facilitate description logics-based reasoning for idiom retrieval. The experimental evaluation shows that OCIRS realizes the function of searching idioms via semantics, obtaining preliminary achievement as requested by the users.

Keywords: Chinese idiom, idiom retrieval, semantic searching, ontology, semantics similarity.

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Authors: Kostyantyn Yermashov, Karsten Wolke, Karl Hayo Siemsen

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Domain-specific languages describe specific solutions to problems in the application domain. Traditionally they form a solution composing black-box abstractions together. This, usually, involves non-deep transformations over the target model. In this paper we argue that it is potentially powerful to operate with grey-box abstractions to build a domain-specific software system. We present parametric code templates as grey-box abstractions and conceptual tools to encapsulate and manipulate these templates. Manipulations introduce template-s merging routines and can be defined in a generic way. This involves reasoning mechanisms at the code templates level. We introduce the concept of Neurath Modelling Language (NML) that operates with parametric code templates and specifies a visualisation mapping mechanism for target models. Finally we provide an example of calculating a domain-specific software system with predefined NML elements.

Keywords: software design, code templates, domain-specific languages, modelling languages, generic tools

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Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

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The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

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Authors: Linnea Stenliden

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The aim of this paper is to understand emerging learning conditions, when a visual analytics is implemented and used in K 12 (education). To date, little attention has been paid to the role visual analytics (digital media and technology that highlight visual data communication in order to support analytical tasks) can play in education, and to the extent to which these tools can process actionable data for young students. This study was conducted in three public K 12 schools, in four social science classes with students aged 10 to 13 years, over a period of two to four weeks at each school. Empirical data were generated using video observations and analyzed with help of metaphors within Actor-network theory (ANT). The learning conditions are found to be distinguished by broad complexity, characterized by four dimensions. These emerge from the actors’ deeply intertwined relations in the activities. The paper argues in relation to the found dimensions that novel approaches to teaching and learning could benefit students’ knowledge building as they work with visual analytics, analyzing visualized data.

Keywords: Analytical reasoning, complexity, data use, problem space, visual analytics, visual storytelling, translation.

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: Danijela Tuljak-Suban, Valter Suban

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Food as perishable goods represents a specific and sensitive part in the supply chain theory, since changing physical or chemical characteristics considerably influence the approach to stock management. The most delicate phase of this process is transportation, where it becomes difficult to ensure the stable conditions which limit deterioration, since the value of the deterioration rate could be easily influenced by the mode of transportation. The fuzzy definition of variables allows one to take these variations into account. Furthermore, an appropriate choice of the defuzzification method permits one to adapt results to real conditions as far as possible. In this article those methods which take into account the relationship between the deterioration rate of perishable goods and transportation by ship will be applied with the aim of (a) minimizing the total cost function, defined as the sum of the ordering cost, holding cost, disposing cost and transportation costs, and (b) improving the supply chain sustainability by reducing environmental impact and waste disposal costs.

Keywords: Perishable goods, fuzzy reasoning, transport by ship, supply chain sustainability.

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Authors: Ines Hamdi, Mohamed Ben Ahmed

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The understanding of the system level of biological behavior and phenomenon variously needs some elements such as gene sequence, protein structure, gene functions and metabolic pathways. Challenging problems are representing, learning and reasoning about these biochemical reactions, gene and protein structure, genotype and relation between the phenotype, and expression system on those interactions. The goal of our work is to understand the behaviors of the interactions networks and to model their evolution in time and in space. We propose in this study an ontological meta-model for the knowledge representation of the genetic regulatory networks. Ontology in artificial intelligence means the fundamental categories and relations that provide a framework for knowledge models. Domain ontology's are now commonly used to enable heterogeneous information resources, such as knowledge-based systems, to communicate with each other. The interest of our model is to represent the spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal knowledge. We validated our propositions in the genetic regulatory network of the Aarbidosis thaliana flower

Keywords: Ontological model, spatio-temporal modeling, Genetic Regulatory Networks (GRNs), knowledge representation.

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Authors: Zohreh Bang Tavakoli, Shuktika Chatterjee

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This study is investigating the impact of ideological structures in terms of conservative and liberal on shaping immigration acceptance attitudes under the contribution of socio-economic status. According to motivated reasoning theory, political ideology is identified as a recurrent impact on the formation of attitude, while conservatives tend to express more hostility toward immigrants in comparison to liberals which are proposed to be more tolerant towards immigrants. Our finding suggests that political ideology will structure individual attitudes when citizens socio-economic vulnerability and level of education are low enough to consider immigrants as a threat. Therefore, economic vulnerability is proposed to weaken the ideological predispositions’ resistance. There has been some threats and factors such as level of education and economic condition proposed by group competition theory and labor market competition theory as fundamental factors which can strengthen or weaken the effects of political ideology on individuals’ attitudes towards immigration; those mechanisms for liberals and conservatives will be operated differently.

Keywords: Conservative, immigration, liberal, political ideology.

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Authors: Serin Lee, Takashi Kubota, Ichiro Nakatani

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The approaches to make an agent generate intelligent actions in the AI field might be roughly categorized into two ways–the classical planning and situated action system. It is well known that each system have its own strength and weakness. However, each system also has its own application field. In particular, most of situated action systems do not directly deal with the logical problem. This paper first briefly mentions the novel action generator to situatedly extract a set of actions, which is likely to help to achieve the goal at the current situation in the relaxed logical space. After performing the action set, the agent should recognize the situation for deciding the next likely action set. However, since the extracted action is an approximation of the action which helps to achieve the goal, the agent could be caught into the deadlock of the problem. This paper proposes the newly developed hybrid architecture to solve the problem, which combines the novel situated action generator with the conventional planner. The empirical result in some planning domains shows that the quality of the resultant path to the goal is mostly acceptable as well as deriving the fast response time, and suggests the correlation between the structure of problems and the organization of each system which generates the action.

Keywords: Situated reasoning, situated action, planning, hybrid architecture

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Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

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In this paper, a neural network tuned fuzzy controller is proposed for controlling Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems. For the convenience of analysis, the structure of MIMO fuzzy controller is divided into single input single-output (SISO) controllers for controlling each degree of freedom. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the system-s dynamics coupling, an appropriate coupling fuzzy controller is incorporated to improve the performance. The simulation analysis on a two-level mass–spring MIMO vibration system is carried out and results show the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy controller. The performance though improved, the computational time and memory used is comparatively higher, because it has four fuzzy reasoning blocks and number may increase in case of other MIMO system. Then a fuzzy neural network is designed from a set of input-output training data to reduce the computing burden during implementation. This control strategy can not only simplify the implementation problem of fuzzy control, but also reduce computational time and consume less memory.

Keywords: Fuzzy Control, Neural Network, MIMO System, Optimization of Membership functions.

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Authors: Yolina A. Petrova, Georgi I. Petkov

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The paper presents a symbolic model for category learning and categorization (called RoleMap). Unlike the other models which implement learning in a separate working mode, role-governed category learning and categorization emerge in RoleMap while it does its usual reasoning. The model is based on several basic mechanisms known as reflecting the sub-processes of analogy-making. It steps on the assumption that in their everyday life people constantly compare what they experience and what they know. Various commonalities between the incoming information (current experience) and the stored one (long-term memory) emerge from those comparisons. Some of those commonalities are considered to be highly important, and they are transformed into concepts for further use. This process denotes the category learning. When there is missing knowledge in the incoming information (i.e. the perceived object is still not recognized), the model makes anticipations about what is missing, based on the similar episodes from its long-term memory. Various such anticipations may emerge for different reasons. However, with time only one of them wins and is transformed into a category member. This process denotes the act of categorization.

Keywords: Categorization, category learning, role-governed category, analogy-making, cognitive modeling.

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Authors: Alexander V. Libin, Manon Schladen, Assya Pascalev, Nawar Shara, Miriam Philmon, Yuri Millo, Joseph Verbalis

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Chronic conditions carry with them strong emotions and often lead to charged relationships between patients and their health providers and, by extension, patients and health researchers. Persons are both autonomous and relational and a purely cognitive model of autonomy neglects the social and relational basis of chronic illness. Ensuring genuine informed consent in research requires a thorough understanding of how participants perceive a study and their reasons for participation. Surveys may not capture the complexities of reasoning that underlies study participation. Contradictory reasons for participation, for instance an initial claim of altruism as rationale and a subsequent claim of personal benefit (therapeutic misconception), affect the quality of informed consent. Individuals apply principles through the filter of personal values and lived experience. Authentic autonomy, and hence authentic consent to research, occurs within the context of patients- unique life narratives and illness experiences.

Keywords: ethical dilemmas, open source technology, patient education, psychology of decision making

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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Authors: A. Kablan

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The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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