Search results for: surrogate modeling

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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Authors: Chansopheak Seang, Afia David Kouadri, Eric Ragneau

Abstract:

Three dimensional analysis of thermal model in laser full penetration welding, Nd:YAG, by transparent mode DP600 alloy steel 1.25mm of thickness and gap of 0.1mm. Three models studied the influence of thermal dependent temperature properties, thermal independent temperature and the effect of peak value of specific heat at phase transformation temperature, AC1, on the transient temperature. Another seven models studied the influence of discretization, meshes on the temperature distribution in weld plate. It is shown that for the effects of thermal properties, the errors less 4% of maximum temperature in FZ and HAZ have identified. The minimum value of discretization are at least one third increment per radius for temporal discretization and the spatial discretization requires two elements per radius and four elements through thickness of the assembled plate, which therefore represent the minimum requirements of modeling for the laser welding in order to get minimum errors less than 5% compared to the fine mesh.

Keywords: FEA, welding, discretization, ABAQUS user subroutine DFLUX

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Authors: Totok R. Biyanto, Sonny Irawan, Hiskia J. Ginting, Matradji, Ya’umar, A. I. Fitri

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Steam injection is the most suitable of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods to recover high viscosity oil. This is due to the capabilities of steam to reduce oil viscosity and increase the sweep capability of oil from the injection well toward the production well. Oil operating conditions in production should be match well with the operating condition target at the bottom of the production well. It is influenced by oil properties and reservoir rock properties. Hence, the operating condition should be optimized. Optimization requires three components i.e., objective function, model, and optimization technique. In this paper, the objective function is to obtain the optimum operating condition at the production well. The model was built using Darcy equation and mass-energy balance. The optimization technique utilizes Duelist Algorithm due to the effectiveness of its algorithm to obtain the desirable optimization results at the optimum operating condition.

Keywords: Enhanced oil recovery, steam injection, operating conditions, modeling, optimization, Duelist algorithm.

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Authors: Parisa Ahmadi Oliaei, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

Abstract:

The knowledge of soil–reinforcement interaction parameters is particularly important in the design of reinforced soil structures. The pull-out test is one of the most widely used tests in this regard. The results of tensile tests may be very sensitive to boundary conditions, and more research is needed for a better understanding of the pull-out response of reinforcement, so numerical analysis using the finite element method can be a useful tool for the understanding of the pull-out response of soil-geogrid interaction. The main objective of the present study is to compare the numerical and experimental results of a pull-out test on geogrid-reinforced sandy soils interactions. Plaxis 2D finite element software is used for simulation. In the present study, the pull-out test modeling has been done on sandy soil. The effect of geogrid hardness was also investigated by considering two different types of geogrids. The numerical results curve had a good agreement with the pull-out laboratory results.

Keywords: Plaxis, pull-out test, sand, soil-geogrid interaction.

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Authors: Emad Askar, Eldesoky Elsoaly, Mohamed Kamel, Hisham Kamel

Abstract:

The objective of this article is to improve the passive vibration damping of solar array (SA) used in space structures, by the effective application of numerical optimization. A case study of a SA is used for demonstration. A finite element (FE) model was created and verified by experimental testing. Optimization was then conducted by implementing the FE model with the genetic algorithm, to find the optimal placement of aluminum circular patches, to suppress the first two bending mode shapes. The results were verified using experimental testing. Finally, a parametric study was conducted using the FE model where patch locations, material type, and shape were varied one at a time, and the results were compared with the optimal ones. The results clearly show that through the proper application of FE modeling and numerical optimization, passive vibration damping of space structures has been successfully achieved.

Keywords: Damping optimization, genetic algorithm optimization, passive vibration damping, solar array vibration damping.

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Authors: R. N. Patel

Abstract:

This paper deals with the tuning of parameters for Automatic Generation Control (AGC). A two area interconnected hydrothermal system with PI controller is considered. Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms have been applied to optimize the controller parameters. Two objective functions namely Integral Square Error (ISE) and Integral of Time-multiplied Absolute value of the Error (ITAE) are considered for optimization. The effectiveness of an objective function is considered based on the variation in tie line power and change in frequency in both the areas. MATLAB/SIMULINK was used as a simulation tool. Simulation results reveal that ITAE is a better objective function than ISE. Performances of optimization algorithms are also compared and it was found that genetic algorithm gives better results than particle swarm optimization algorithm for the problems of AGC.

Keywords: Area control error, Artificial intelligence, Automatic generation control, Genetic Algorithms and modeling, ISE, ITAE, Particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Hafizuddin W. Yussof, Syamsutajri S. Bahri, Adam P. Harvey

Abstract:

Strong anion exchange resins with QN+OH-, have the potential to be developed and employed as heterogeneous catalyst for transesterification, as they are chemically stable to leaching of the functional group. Nine different SIERs (SIER1-9) with QN+OH-were prepared by suspension polymerization of vinylbenzyl chloridedivinylbenzene (VBC-DVB) copolymers in the presence of n-heptane (pore-forming agent). The amine group was successfully grafted into the polymeric resin beads through functionalization with trimethylamine. These SIERs are then used as a catalyst for the transesterification of triacetin with methanol. A set of differential equations that represents the Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen- Watson (LHHW) and Eley-Rideal (ER) models for the transesterification reaction were developed. These kinetic models of LHHW and ER were fitted to the experimental data. Overall, the synthesized ion exchange resin-catalyzed reaction were welldescribed by the Eley-Rideal model compared to LHHW models, with sum of square error (SSE) of 0.742 and 0.996, respectively.

Keywords: Anion exchange resin, Eley-Rideal, Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson, transesterification.

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Authors: V. Karamzadeh, J. Adhvaryu, A. Chandrasekaran, M. Packirisamy

Abstract:

In Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) microfluidics, the throughput of particle sorting is dependent on the complex interplay between the geometric configuration of the channel, the size of the particles, and the properties of the fluid medium, which therefore calls for a detailed modeling and understanding of the fluid-particle interaction dynamics under an acoustic field, prior to designing the system. In this work, we propose a simplified Bulk acoustophoretic system that can be used for size dependent particle sorting. A Finite Element Method (FEM) based analytical model has been developed to study the dependence of particle sizes on channel parameters, and the sorting efficiency in a given fluid medium. Based on the results, the microfluidic system has been designed to take into account all the variables involved with the underlying physics, and has been fabricated using an additive manufacturing technique employing a commercial 3D printer, to generate a simple, cost-effective system that can be used for size sensitive particle sorting.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D microfluidic chip, acoustophoresis, cell separation, MEMS, microfluidics.

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Authors: M.R. Mustafa, M.H. Isa, R.B. Rezaur

Abstract:

Prediction of highly non linear behavior of suspended sediment flow in rivers has prime importance in the field of water resources engineering. In this study the predictive performance of two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) namely, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network and the Multi Layer Feed Forward (MLFF) Network have been compared. Time series data of daily suspended sediment discharge and water discharge at Pari River was used for training and testing the networks. A number of statistical parameters i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used for performance evaluation of the models. Both the models produced satisfactory results and showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed data. The RBF network model provided slightly better results than the MLFF network model in predicting suspended sediment discharge.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, suspendedsediment,

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Authors: Arvind Kumar, Manoj Kumar, Dattatraya H. Nagaraj, Amanpreet Singh, Jayanthi Prattapati

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In recent years, the use of renewable energy resources instead of pollutant fossil fuels and other forms has increased. Photovoltaic generation is becoming increasingly important as a renewable resource since it does not cause in fuel costs, pollution, maintenance, and emitting noise compared with other alternatives used in power applications. In this paper, Perturb and Observe and Incremental Conductance methods are used to improve energy conversion efficiency under different environmental conditions. PI controllers are used to control easily DC-link voltage, active and reactive currents. The whole system is simulated under standard climatic conditions (1000 W/m2, 250C) in MATLAB and the irradiance is varied from 1000 W/m2 to 300 W/m2. The use of PI controller makes it easy to directly control the power of the grid connected PV system. Finally the validity of the system will be verified through the simulations in MATLAB/Simulink environment.

Keywords: Incremental conductance algorithm, modeling of PV panel, perturb and observe algorithm, photovoltaic system and simulation results.

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Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: Markov process, milling system, availability modeling, rice milling plant.

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Authors: Gh. Saeidifar, F. Raeiszadeh

Abstract:

BRI-STARS (BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation) program was used to investigate the scour depth around bridge piers in some of the major river systems in Iran. Model calibration was performed by collecting different field data. Field data are cataloged on three categories, first group of bridges that their rivers bed are formed by fine material, second group of bridges that their rivers bed are formed by sand material, and finally bridges that their rivers bed are formed by gravel or cobble materials. Verification was performed with some field data in Fars Province. Results show that for wide piers, computed scour depth is more than measured one. In gravel bed streams, computed scour depth is greater than measured scour depth, the reason is due to formation of armor layer on bed of channel. Once this layer is eroded, the computed scour depth is close to the measured one.

Keywords: BRI-STARS, local scour, bridge, computer modeling

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Authors: Y. B. Galerkin, E. Y. Popova, K. V. Soldatova

Abstract:

There is an evident trend to elevate pressure ratio of a single stage of a turbo compressors - axial compressors in particular. Whilst there was an opinion recently that a pressure ratio 1,9 was a reasonable limit, later appeared information on successful modeling tested of stages with pressure ratio up to 2,8. The authors recon that lack of information on high pressure stages makes actual a study of rational choice of design parameters before high supersonic flow problems solving. The computer program of an engineering type was developed. Below is presented a sample of its application to study possible parameters of the impeller of the stage with pressure ratio 3,0. Influence of two main design parameters on expected efficiency, periphery blade speed and flow structure is demonstrated. The results had lead to choose a variant for further analysis and improvement by CFD methods.

Keywords: Supersonic stage, impeller, efficiency, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient, loss coefficient, oblique shock, direct shock.

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Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen

Abstract:

This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.

Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.

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Authors: P.Kumar

Abstract:

Fluids are used for heat transfer in many engineering equipments. Water, ethylene glycol and propylene glycol are some of the common heat transfer fluids. Over the years, in an attempt to reduce the size of the equipment and/or efficiency of the process, various techniques have been employed to improve the heat transfer rate of these fluids. Surface modification, use of inserts and increased fluid velocity are some examples of heat transfer enhancement techniques. Addition of milli or micro sized particles to the heat transfer fluid is another way of improving heat transfer rate. Though this looks simple, this method has practical problems such as high pressure loss, clogging and erosion of the material of construction. These problems can be overcome by using nanofluids, which is a dispersion of nanosized particles in a base fluid. Nanoparticles increase the thermal conductivity of the base fluid manifold which in turn increases the heat transfer rate. In this work, the heat transfer enhancement using aluminium oxide nanofluid has been studied by computational fluid dynamic modeling of the nanofluid flow adopting the single phase approach.

Keywords: Heat transfer intensification, nanofluid, CFD, friction factor

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Authors: Sachin Man Bajimaya, SangChul Park, Gi-Nam Wang

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The objective of this paper is to estimate realistic principal extrusion process parameters by means of artificial neural network. Conventionally, finite element analysis is used to derive process parameters. However, the finite element analysis of the extrusion model does not consider the manufacturing process constraints in its modeling. Therefore, the process parameters obtained through such an analysis remains highly theoretical. Alternatively, process development in industrial extrusion is to a great extent based on trial and error and often involves full-size experiments, which are both expensive and time-consuming. The artificial neural network-based estimation of the extrusion process parameters prior to plant execution helps to make the actual extrusion operation more efficient because more realistic parameters may be obtained. And so, it bridges the gap between simulation and real manufacturing execution system. In this work, a suitable neural network is designed which is trained using an appropriate learning algorithm. The network so trained is used to predict the manufacturing process parameters.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Indirect Extrusion, Finite Element Analysis, MES.

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Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

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Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: Energy in Buildings, Hardware in Loop, Modelica (Dymola), Monte Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Propagation.

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Authors: Eugene Grichuk, Margarita Kuzmina, Eduard Manykin

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A network of coupled stochastic oscillators is proposed for modeling of a cluster of entangled qubits that is exploited as a computation resource in one-way quantum computation schemes. A qubit model has been designed as a stochastic oscillator formed by a pair of coupled limit cycle oscillators with chaotically modulated limit cycle radii and frequencies. The qubit simulates the behavior of electric field of polarized light beam and adequately imitates the states of two-level quantum system. A cluster of entangled qubits can be associated with a beam of polarized light, light polarization degree being directly related to cluster entanglement degree. Oscillatory network, imitating qubit cluster, is designed, and system of equations for network dynamics has been written. The constructions of one-qubit gates are suggested. Changing of cluster entanglement degree caused by measurements can be exactly calculated.

Keywords: network of stochastic oscillators, one-way quantumcomputations, a beam of polarized light.

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Authors: Julio Kauss, Miguel Cadillo, David Mauricio

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E-commerce is a business model that allows companies to optimize the processes of buying, selling, transferring goods and exchanging services through computer networks or the Internet. In Peru, the electronic commerce is used infrequently. This situation is due, in part to the fact that there is no model that allows companies to implement an e-commerce solution, which means that most SMEs do not have adequate knowledge to adapt to electronic commerce. In this work, a reference model is proposed for the implementation of an e-commerce solution in Peruvian SMEs in the retail sector. It consists of five phases: Business Analysis, Business Modeling, Implementation, Post Implementation and Results. The present model was validated in a SME of the Peruvian retail sector through the implementation of an electronic commerce platform, through which the company increased its sales through the delivery channel by 10% in the first month of deployment. This result showed that the model is easy to implement, is economical and agile. In addition, it allowed the company to increase its business offer, adapt to e-commerce and improve customer loyalty.

Keywords: E-commerce, retail, SMEs, reference model.

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Authors: Man Young Kim

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to investigate the turbulent reacting flow in a three dimensional combustor with emphasis on the effect of inlet swirl flow through a numerical simulation. Flow field is analyzed using the SIMPLE method which is known as stable as well as accurate in the combustion modeling, and the finite volume method is adopted in solving the radiative transfer equation. In this work, the thermal and flow characteristics in a three dimensional combustor by changing parameters such as equivalence ratio and inlet swirl angle have investigated. As the equivalence ratio increases, which means that more fuel is supplied due to a larger inlet fuel velocity, the flame temperature increases and the location of maximum temperature has moved towards downstream. In the mean while, the existence of inlet swirl velocity makes the fuel and combustion air more completely mixed and burnt in short distance. Therefore, the locations of the maximum reaction rate and temperature were shifted to forward direction compared with the case of no swirl.

Keywords: Gaseous Fuel, Inlet Swirl, Thermal Radiation, Turbulent Combustion

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Authors: M. Priscila Ramos, Omar O. Chisari, Juan Pablo Vila Martínez

Abstract:

Current literature about trade liberalization of environmental goods and services (EGS) raises doubts about the extent of the triple win-win situation for trade, development and the environment. However, much of this literature does not consider the possibility that this agreement carries technological transmissions, either through trade or foreign direct investment. This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for Argentina, where there are alternative technologies (one dirty and one clean according to carbon emissions) to produce the same goods. In this context, the trade liberalization of EGS allows to increase GDP, trade, reduce unemployment and improve the households welfare. However, the capital mobility appears as the key assumption to jointly reach the environmental target, when the positive scale effect generated by the increase in trade is offset by the change in the composition of production (composition and technical effects by the use of the clean alternative technology) and of consumption (composition effect by substitution of relatively lesspolluting imported goods).

Keywords: CGE modeling, CO2 emissions, composition effect, scale effect, technique effect, trade liberalization of EGS.

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Authors: Arturs Macanovskis, Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

Abstract:

This work had three stages. In the first stage was examined pull-out process for steel fiber was embedded into a concrete by one end and was pulled out of concrete under the angle to pulling out force direction. Angle was varied. On the obtained forcedisplacement diagrams were observed jumps. For such mechanical behavior explanation, fiber channel in concrete surface microscopical experimental investigation, using microscope KEYENCE VHX2000, was performed. At the second stage were obtained diagrams for load- crack opening displacement for breaking homogeneously reinforced and layered fiberconcrete prisms (with dimensions 10x10x40cm) subjected to 4-point bending. After testing was analyzed main crack. At the third stage elaborated prediction model for the fiberconcrete beam, failure under bending, using the following data: a) diagrams for fibers pulling out at different angles; b) experimental data about steel-straight fibers locations in the main crack. Experimental and theoretical (modeling) data were compared.

Keywords: Fiberconcrete, pull-out, fiber channel, layered fiberconcrete.

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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Authors: Ho-Jun Jo, Wook-Won Kim, Yong-Sung Kim, Jin-O Kim

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The application of ESS (Energy Storage Systems) in the future grids has been the solution of the microgrid. However, high investment costs necessitate accurate modeling and control strategy of ESS to justify its economic viability and further underutilization. Therefore, the reasonable control strategy for ESS which is subjected to generator and usage helps to curtail the cost of investment and operation costs. The rated frequency in power system is decreased when the load is increasing unexpectedly; hence the thermal power is operated at the capacity of only its 95% for the Governor Free (GF) to adjust the frequency as reserve (5%) in practice. The ESS can be utilized with governor at the same time for the frequency response due to characteristic of its fast response speed and moreover, the cost of ESS is declined rapidly to the reasonable price. This paper presents the ESS control strategy to extend usage of the ESS taken account into governor’s ramp rate and reduce the governor’s intervention as well. All results in this paper are simulated by MATLAB.

Keywords: Micro grid, energy storage systems, ramp rate, control strategy.

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Authors: B. Manshoor, M. Jaat, Amir Khalid

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Circle grid space filling plate is a flow conditioner with a fractal pattern and used to eliminate turbulence originating from pipe fittings in experimental fluid flow applications. In this paper, steady state, incompressible, swirling turbulent flow through circle grid space filling plate has been studied. The solution and the analysis were carried out using finite volume CFD solver FLUENT 6.2. Three turbulence models were used in the numerical investigation and their results were compared with the pressure drop correlation of BS EN ISO 5167-2:2003. The turbulence models investigated here are the standard k-ε, realizable k-ε, and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). The results showed that the RSM model gave the best agreement with the ISO pressure drop correlation. The effects of circle grids space filling plate thickness and Reynolds number on the flow characteristics have been investigated as well.

Keywords: Flow conditioning, turbulent flow, turbulent modeling, CFD.

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Authors: Murugan Marimuthu, Jeyabharath Rajaih

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This paper describes a simple way to control the speed of PMBLDC motor using Fuzzy logic control method. In the conventional PI controller the performance of the motor system is simulated and the speed is regulated by using PI controller. These methods used to improve the performance of PMSM drives, but in some cases at different operating conditions when the dynamics of the system also vary over time and it can change the reference speed, parameter variations and the load disturbance. The simulation is powered with the MATLAB program to get a reliable and flexible simulation. In order to highlight the effectiveness of the speed control method the FLC method is used. The proposed method targeted in achieving the improved dynamic performance and avoids the variations of the motor drive. This drive has high accuracy, robust operation from near zero to high speed. The effectiveness and flexibility of the individual techniques of the speed control method will be thoroughly discussed for merits and demerits and finally verified through simulation and experimental results for comparative analysis.

Keywords: Hall position sensors, permanent magnet brushless DC motor, PI controller, Fuzzy Controller.

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Authors: S. Zappacosta, C. Bove, M. Carmela Marinelli, P. di Lauro, K. Spasenovic, L. Ostano, G. Aiello, M. Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (Piani Assetto Idrogeologico, acronimed as PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), encoding four different increasing flood hazard levels. The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: Masatora Daito, Hisashi Kojima

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In this research, the authors analyze network stability using agent-based simulation. Firstly, the authors focus on analyzing large networks (eight agents) by connecting different two stable small social networks (A small stable network is consisted on four agents.). Secondly, the authors analyze the network (eight agents) shape which is added one agent to a stable network (seven agents). Thirdly, the authors analyze interpersonal comparison of utility. The “star-network "was not found on the result of interaction among stable two small networks. On the other hand, “decentralized network" was formed from several combination. In case of added one agent to a stable network (seven agents), if the value of “c"(maintenance cost of per a link) was larger, the number of patterns of stable network was also larger. In this case, the authors identified the characteristics of a large stable network. The authors discovered the cases of decreasing personal utility under condition increasing total utility.

Keywords: Social Network, Symmetric Situation, Network Stability, Agent-Based Modeling.

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Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

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The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

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Authors: M. Aminu Sanda

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This paper explores competencies that managers of small firms in Ghana use to enhance operational flexibility towards the attainment of higher productivity. This is because the requisite competence required of such managers to be effective performers continues to be a challenge. Data was collected from managers of three hundred small firms using a standardized self-completion questionnaire and analyzed using the Amos-based structural equation model approach. Findings from factor and confirmatory factor analyses showed that the only competence exhibited by managers toward effective performance is realistic practices evident at the workplace. It is concluded that a manager’s self-confidence and involvement in areas that he/she is good at, and his/her possession of skills that enables performance at high capacity are indications of the manger’s effectiveness. The study outcome provides a knowledge base helpful to policy-makers, especially in Ghana, in determining the requisite managerial competences required by small firm managers for effective performance.

Keywords: Managerial competence, small firm, effective performance, developing economy, Ghana.

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