Search results for: dynamic panel data models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10519

Search results for: dynamic panel data models

9079 On the Application of Meta-Design Techniques in Hardware Design Domain

Authors: R. Damaševičius

Abstract:

System-level design based on high-level abstractions is becoming increasingly important in hardware and embedded system design. This paper analyzes meta-design techniques oriented at developing meta-programs and meta-models for well-understood domains. Meta-design techniques include meta-programming and meta-modeling. At the programming level of design process, metadesign means developing generic components that are usable in a wider context of application than original domain components. At the modeling level, meta-design means developing design patterns that describe general solutions to the common recurring design problems, and meta-models that describe the relationship between different types of design models and abstractions. The paper describes and evaluates the implementation of meta-design in hardware design domain using object-oriented and meta-programming techniques. The presented ideas are illustrated with a case study.

Keywords: Design patterns, meta-design, meta-modeling, metaprogramming.

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9078 Nonlinear Time-History Analysis of 3-Dimensional Semi-rigid Steel Frames

Authors: Phu-Cuong Nguyen, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents nonlinear elastic dynamic analysis of 3-D semi-rigid steel frames including geometric and connection nonlinearities. The geometric nonlinearity is considered by using stability functions and updating geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear behavior of the steel beam-to-column connection is considered by using a zero-length independent connection element comprising of six translational and rotational springs. The nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark numerical integration method. The nonlinear time-history analysis results are compared with those of previous studies and commercial SAP2000 software to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: Geometric nonlinearity, nonlinear time-historyanalysis, semi-rigid connection, stability functions.

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9077 Numerical Modeling of Steel-Composite Hybrid Tubes Subject to Static and Dynamic Loading

Authors: Y. S. Tai, M. Y. Huang, H. T. Hu

Abstract:

The commercial finite element program LS-DYNA was employed to evaluate the response and energy absorbing capacity of cylindrical metal tubes that are externally wrapped with composite. The effects of composite wall thickness, loading conditions and fiber ply orientation were examined. The results demonstrate that a wrapped composite can be utilized effectively to enhance the crushing characteristics and energy absorbing capacity of the tubes. Increasing the thickness of the composite increases the mean force and the specific energy absorption under both static and dynamic crushing. The ply pattern affects the energy absorption capacity and the failure mode of the metal tube and the composite material property is also significant in determining energy absorption efficiency.

Keywords: fiber-reinforced metal tubes, energy absorption, axial crushing, impact loading.

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9076 One Hour Ahead Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network for the Western Area of Saudi Arabia

Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.

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9075 Comparative Dynamic Performance of Load Frequency Control of Nonlinear Interconnected Hydro-Thermal System Using Intelligent Techniques

Authors: Banaja Mohanty, Prakash Kumar Hota

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates dynamic performance evaluation of load frequency control (LFC) with different intelligent techniques. All non-linearities and physical constraints have been considered in simulation studies such as governor dead band (GDB), generation rate constraint (GRC) and boiler dynamics. The conventional integral time absolute error has been considered as objective function. The design problem is formulated as an optimisation problem and particle swarm optimisation (PSO), bacterial foraging optimisation algorithm (BFOA) and differential evolution (DE) are employed to search optimal controller parameters. The superiority of the proposed approach has been shown by comparing the results with published fuzzy logic control (FLC) for the same interconnected power system. The comparison is done using various performance measures like overshoot, undershoot, settling time and standard error criteria of frequency and tie-line power deviation following a step load perturbation (SLP). It is noticed that, the dynamic performance of proposed controller is better than FLC. Further, robustness analysis is carried out by varying the time constants of speed governor, turbine, tie-line power in the range of +40% to -40% to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed DE optimized PID controller.

Keywords: Automatic generation control, governor dead band, generation rate constraint, differential evolution.

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9074 Data Mining to Capture User-Experience: A Case Study in Notebook Product Appearance Design

Authors: Rhoann Kerh, Chen-Fu Chien, Kuo-Yi Lin

Abstract:

In the era of rapidly increasing notebook market, consumer electronics manufacturers are facing a highly dynamic and competitive environment. In particular, the product appearance is the first part for user to distinguish the product from the product of other brands. Notebook product should differ in its appearance to engage users and contribute to the user experience (UX). The UX evaluates various product concepts to find the design for user needs; in addition, help the designer to further understand the product appearance preference of different market segment. However, few studies have been done for exploring the relationship between consumer background and the reaction of product appearance. This study aims to propose a data mining framework to capture the user’s information and the important relation between product appearance factors. The proposed framework consists of problem definition and structuring, data preparation, rules generation, and results evaluation and interpretation. An empirical study has been done in Taiwan that recruited 168 subjects from different background to experience the appearance performance of 11 different portable computers. The results assist the designers to develop product strategies based on the characteristics of consumers and the product concept that related to the UX, which help to launch the products to the right customers and increase the market shares. The results have shown the practical feasibility of the proposed framework.

Keywords: Consumers Decision Making, Product Design, Rough Set Theory, User Experience.

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9073 LQR and SMC Stabilization of a New Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Authors: Kaan T. Oner, Ertugrul Cetinsoy, Efe Sirimoglu, Cevdet Hancer, Taylan Ayken, Mustafa Unel

Abstract:

We present our ongoing work on the development of a new quadrotor aerial vehicle which has a tilt-wing mechanism. The vehicle is capable of take-off/landing in vertical flight mode (VTOL) and flying over long distances in horizontal flight mode. Full dynamic model of the vehicle is derived using Newton-Euler formulation. Linear and nonlinear controllers for the stabilization of attitude of the vehicle and control of its altitude have been designed and implemented via simulations. In particular, an LQR controller has been shown to be quite effective in the vertical flight mode for all possible yaw angles. A sliding mode controller (SMC) with recursive nature has also been proposed to stabilize the vehicle-s attitude and altitude. Simulation results show that proposed controllers provide satisfactory performance in achieving desired maneuvers.

Keywords: UAV, VTOL, dynamic model, stabilization, LQR, SMC

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9072 Probability Distribution of Rainfall Depth at Hourly Time-Scale

Authors: S. Dan'azumi, S. Shamsudin, A. A. Rahman

Abstract:

Rainfall data at fine resolution and knowledge of its characteristics plays a major role in the efficient design and operation of agricultural, telecommunication, runoff and erosion control as well as water quality control systems. The paper is aimed to study the statistical distribution of hourly rainfall depth for 12 representative stations spread across Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data of 10 to 22 years period were collected and its statistical characteristics were estimated. Three probability distributions namely, Generalized Pareto, Exponential and Gamma distributions were proposed to model the hourly rainfall depth, and three goodness-of-fit tests, namely, Kolmogorov-Sminov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared tests were used to evaluate their fitness. Result indicates that the east cost of the Peninsular receives higher depth of rainfall as compared to west coast. However, the rainfall frequency is found to be irregular. Also result from the goodness-of-fit tests show that all the three models fit the rainfall data at 1% level of significance. However, Generalized Pareto fits better than Exponential and Gamma distributions and is therefore recommended as the best fit.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, Hourly rainfall, Malaysia, Probability distribution.

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9071 Fitness Action Recognition Based on MediaPipe

Authors: Zixuan Xu, Yichun Lou, Yang Song, Zihuai Lin

Abstract:

MediaPipe is an open-source machine learning computer vision framework that can be ported into a multi-platform environment, which makes it easier to use it to recognize human activity. Based on this framework, many human recognition systems have been created, but the fundamental issue is the recognition of human behavior and posture. In this paper, two methods are proposed to recognize human gestures based on MediaPipe, the first one uses the Adaptive Boosting algorithm to recognize a series of fitness gestures, and the second one uses the Fast Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to recognize 413 continuous fitness actions. These two methods are also applicable to any human posture movement recognition.

Keywords: Computer Vision, MediaPipe, Adaptive Boosting, Fast Dynamic Time Warping.

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9070 The Effect of Multi-Layer Bandage on the Interface Pressure Applied by Compression Bandages

Authors: Jawad Al Khaburi, Abbas A. Dehghani-Sanij, E. Andrea Nelson, Jerry Hutchinson

Abstract:

Medical compression bandages are widely used in the treatment of chronic venous disorder. In order to design effective compression bandages, researchers have attempted to describe the interface pressure applied by multi-layer bandages using mathematical models. This paper reports on the work carried out to compare and validate the mathematical models used to describe the interface pressure applied by multi-layer bandages. Both analytical and experimental results showed that using simple multiplication of a number of bandage layers with the pressure applied by one layer of bandage or ignoring the increase in the limb radius due to former layers of bandage will result in overestimating the pressure. Experimental results showed that the mathematical models, which take into consideration the increase in the limb radius due to former bandage layers, are more accurate than the one which does not.

Keywords: Compression bandages, FlexiForce, interface pressure, venous ulcer

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9069 Evaluation of Fitts’ Law Index of Difficulty Formulation for Screen Size Variations

Authors: Hidehiko Okada, Takayuki Akiba

Abstract:

It is well-known as Fitts’ law that the time for a user to point a target on a GUI screen can be modeled as a linear function of “index of difficulty (ID).” In this paper, the authors investigate whether the traditional ID formulation is appropriate independently of device screen sizes. Result of our experiment reveals that the ID formulation may not consistently capture actual difficulty: users’ pointing performances are not consistent among pointing target variations of which index of difficulty are consistent. The term A/W may not be appropriate because the term causes the observed inconsistency. Based on this finding, the authors then evaluate the applicability of possible models other than Fitts’ one. Multiple regression models are found to be able to appropriately represent the effects of target design variations. The authors next make an attempt to improve the definition of ID in Fitts’ model. Our idea is to raise the size or the distance values depending on the screen size. The modified model is found to fit well to the users’ pointing data, which supports the idea. 

Keywords: Fitts’ law, pointing device, small screen, touch user interface, usability.

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9068 Frequency-Dependent and Full Range Tunable Phase Shifter

Authors: Yufu Yin, Tao Lin, Shanghong Zhao, Zihang Zhu, Xuan Li, Wei Jiang, Qiurong Zheng, Hui Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, a frequency-dependent and tunable phase shifter is proposed and numerically analyzed. The key devices are the dual-polarization binary phase shift keying modulator (DP-BPSK) and the fiber Bragg grating (FBG). The phase-frequency response of the FBG is employed to determine the frequency-dependent phase shift. The simulation results show that a linear phase shift of the recovered output microwave signal which depends on the frequency of the input RF signal is achieved. In addition, by adjusting the power of the RF signal, the full range phase shift from 0° to 360° can be realized. This structure shows the spurious free dynamic range (SFDR) of 70.90 dB·Hz2/3 and 72.11 dB·Hz2/3 under different RF powers.

Keywords: Microwave photonics, phase shifter, spurious free dynamic range, frequency-dependent.

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9067 A Discrete Element Method Centrifuge Model of Monopile under Cyclic Lateral Loads

Authors: Nuo Duan, Yi Pik Cheng

Abstract:

This paper presents the data of a series of two-dimensional Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations of a large-diameter rigid monopile subjected to cyclic loading under a high gravitational force. At present, monopile foundations are widely used to support the tall and heavy wind turbines, which are also subjected to significant from wind and wave actions. A safe design must address issues such as rotations and changes in soil stiffness subject to these loadings conditions. Design guidance on the issue is limited, so are the availability of laboratory and field test data. The interpretation of these results in sand, such as the relation between loading and displacement, relies mainly on empirical correlations to pile properties. Regarding numerical models, most data from Finite Element Method (FEM) can be found. They are not comprehensive, and most of the FEM results are sensitive to input parameters. The micro scale behaviour could change the mechanism of the soil-structure interaction. A DEM model was used in this paper to study the cyclic lateral loads behaviour. A non-dimensional framework is presented and applied to interpret the simulation results. The DEM data compares well with various set of published experimental centrifuge model test data in terms of lateral deflection. The accumulated permanent pile lateral displacements induced by the cyclic lateral loads were found to be dependent on the characteristics of the applied cyclic load, such as the extent of the loading magnitudes and directions.

Keywords: Cyclic loading, DEM, numerical modelling, sands.

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9066 Exploration of Hydrocarbon Unconventional Accumulations in the Argillaceous Formation of the Autochthonous Miocene Succession in the Carpathian Foredeep

Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

Abstract:

The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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9065 Optimal Maintenance and Improvement Policies in Water Distribution System: Markov Decision Process Approach

Authors: Jong Woo Kim, Go Bong Choi, Sang Hwan Son, Dae Shik Kim, Jung Chul Suh, Jong Min Lee

Abstract:

The Markov decision process (MDP) based methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem is presented using the information about the current state of pipe, improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming (DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in computational time are proved.

Keywords: Markov decision processes, Dynamic Programming, Monte Carlo simulation, Periodic replacement, Weibull distribution.

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9064 User-s Hand Effect on TIS of Different GSM900/1800 Mobile Phone Models Using FDTD Method

Authors: Salah I. Al-Mously, Marai M. Abousetta

Abstract:

This paper predicts the effect of the user-s hand-hold position on the Total Isotropic Sensitivity (TIS) of GSM900/1800 mobile phone antennas of realistic in-use conditions, where different semi-realistic mobile phone models, i.e., candy bar and clamshell, as well as different antenna types, i.e., external and internal, are simulated using a FDTD-based platform. A semi-realistic hand model consisting of three tissues and the SAM head are used in simulations. The results show a considerable impact on TIS of the adopted mobile phone models owing to the user-s hand presence at different positions, where a maximum level of TIS is obtained while grasping the upper part of the mobile phone against head. Maximum TIS levels are recorded in talk position for mobile phones with external antenna and maximum differences in TIS levels due to the hand-hold alteration are recorded for clamshell-type phones.

Keywords: FDTD, mobile phone, phantoms, TIS.

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9063 DEA-Based Variable Structure Position Control of DC Servo Motor

Authors: Ladan Maijama’a, Jibril D. Jiya, Ejike C. Anene

Abstract:

This paper presents Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) based Variable Structure Position Control (VSPC) of Laboratory DC servomotor (LDCSM). DEA is employed for the optimal tuning of Variable Structure Control (VSC) parameters for position control of a DC servomotor. The VSC combines the techniques of Sliding Mode Control (SMC) that gives the advantages of small overshoot, improved step response characteristics, faster dynamic response and adaptability to plant parameter variations, suppressed influences of disturbances and uncertainties in system behavior. The results of the simulation responses of the VSC parameters adjustment by DEA were performed in Matlab Version 2010a platform and yield better dynamic performance compared with the untuned VSC designed.

Keywords: Differential evolution algorithm, laboratory DC servomotor, sliding mode control, variable structure control.

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9062 Banana Peels as an Eco-Sorbent for Manganese Ions

Authors: M. S. Mahmoud

Abstract:

This study was conducted to evaluate the manganese removal from aqueous solution using Banana peels activated carbon (BPAC). Batch experiments have been carried out to determine the influence of parameters such as pH, biosorbent dose, initial metal ion concentrations and contact times on the biosorption process. From these investigations, a significant increase in percentage removal of manganese 97.4% is observed at pH value 5.0, biosorbent dose 0.8 g, initial concentration 20 ppm, temperature 25 ± 2°C, stirring rate 200 rpm and contact time 2h. The equilibrium concentration and the adsorption capacity at equilibrium of the experimental results were fitted to the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models; the Langmuir isotherm was found to well represent the measured adsorption data implying BPAC had heterogeneous surface. A raw groundwater samples were collected from Baharmos groundwater treatment plant network at Embaba and Manshiet Elkanater City/District-Giza, Egypt, for treatment at the best conditions that reached at first phase by BPAC. The treatment with BPAC could reduce iron and manganese value of raw groundwater by 91.4% and 97.1%, respectively and the effect of the treatment process on the microbiological properties of groundwater sample showed decrease of total bacterial count either at 22°C or at 37°C to 85.7% and 82.4%, respectively. Also, BPAC was characterized using SEM and FTIR spectroscopy.

Keywords: Biosorption, banana peels, isothermal models, manganese.

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9061 Implementing an Intuitive Reasoner with a Large Weather Database

Authors: Yung-Chien Sun, O. Grant Clark

Abstract:

In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, intuition, knowledge acquisition, limited certainty.

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9060 Generalized Exploratory Model of Human Category Learning

Authors: Toshihiko Matsuka

Abstract:

One problem in evaluating recent computational models of human category learning is that there is no standardized method for systematically comparing the models' assumptions or hypotheses. In the present study, a flexible general model (called GECLE) is introduced that can be used as a framework to systematically manipulate and compare the effects and descriptive validities of a limited number of assumptions at a time. Two example simulation studies are presented to show how the GECLE framework can be useful in the field of human high-order cognition research.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, category learning, cognitive modeling, radial basis functions.

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9059 Analyzing the Perceived Relationship between Motivation and Satisfaction for Rural Tourists in a Digital World

Authors: N. P. Tsephe, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Rural tourism is usually associated with rural development because it has strong linkages to rural resources; but it remains underdeveloped compared to urban tourism. This underdevelopment of rural tourism serves as a motivation for this study whose aim is to examine the factors affecting the perceived satisfaction of rural tourists. The objectives of this study are: to identify and design theories and models on rural tourism satisfaction, and to empirically validate these models and theories through a survey of tourists from the Malealea Lodge which is located in the Mafeteng District, in the Mountain Kingdom of Lesotho. Data generated by the collection of questionnaires used by this survey was analyzed quantitatively using descriptive statistics and correlations in SPSS after checking the validity and the reliability of the questionnaire. The main hypothesis behind this study is the relationship between the demographics of rural tourists, their motivation, and their satisfaction, as supported by existing literature; except that motivation is measured in this study according to three dimensions: push factors, pull factors, and perceived usefulness of ICTs in the rural tourism experience. Findings from this study indicate that among the demographics factors, continent of origin and marital status influence the satisfaction of rural tourists; and their occupation affects their perceptions on the use of ICTs in rural tourism. Moreover, only pull factors were found to influence the satisfaction of rural tourists.

Keywords: Digital world, Motivation, Rural tourism, Satisfaction.

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9058 Interdisciplinary Principles of Field-Like Coordination in the Case of Self-Organized Social Systems1

Authors: D. Plikynas, S. Masteika, A. Budrionis

Abstract:

This interdisciplinary research aims to distinguish universal scale-free and field-like fundamental principles of selforganization observable across many disciplines like computer science, neuroscience, microbiology, social science, etc. Based on these universal principles we provide basic premises and postulates for designing holistic social simulation models. We also introduce pervasive information field (PIF) concept, which serves as a simulation media for contextual information storage, dynamic distribution and organization in social complex networks. PIF concept specifically is targeted for field-like uncoupled and indirect interactions among social agents capable of affecting and perceiving broadcasted contextual information. Proposed approach is expressive enough to represent contextual broadcasted information in a form locally accessible and immediately usable by network agents. This paper gives some prospective vision how system-s resources (tangible and intangible) could be simulated as oscillating processes immersed in the all pervasive information field.

Keywords: field-based coordination, multi-agent systems, information-rich social networks, pervasive information field

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9057 Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region

Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

Abstract:

Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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9056 Typical Day Prediction Model for Output Power and Energy Efficiency of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System

Authors: Yan Su, L. C. Chan

Abstract:

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.

Keywords: Grid Connected, RMSD, Solar PV System, Typical Day.

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9055 A New Approach to Design Policies for the Adoption of Alternative Fuel-Technology Powertrains

Authors: Reza Fazeli, Vitor Leal, Jorge Pinho de Sousa

Abstract:

Planning the transition period for the adoption of alternative fuel-technology powertrains is a challenging task that requires sophisticated analysis tools. In this study, a system dynamic approach was applied to analyze the bi-directional interaction between the development of the refueling station network and vehicle sales. Besides, the developed model was used to estimate the transition cost to reach a predefined target (share of alternative fuel vehicles) in different scenarios. Several scenarios have been analyzed to investigate the effectiveness and cost of incentives on the initial price of vehicles, and on the evolution of fuel and refueling stations. Obtained results show that a combined set of incentives will be more effective than just a single specific type of incentives.

Keywords: adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles, System Dynamic Analysis, Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

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9054 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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9053 Measurement of Operational and Environmental Performance of the Coal-Fired Power Plants in India by Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors: Vijay Kumar Bajpai, Sudhir Kumar Singh

Abstract:

In this study, the performance analyses of the twenty five Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPPs) used for electricity generation are carried out through various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Three efficiency indices are defined and pursued. During the calculation of the operational performance, energy and non-energy variables are used as input, and net electricity produced is used as desired output (Model-1). CO2 emitted to the environment is used as the undesired output (Model-2) in the computation of the pure environmental performance while in Model-3 CO2 emissions is considered as detrimental input in the calculation of operational and environmental performance. Empirical results show that most of the plants are operating in increasing returns to scale region and Mettur plant is efficient one with regards to energy use and environment. The result also indicates that the undesirable output effect is insignificant in the research sample. The present study will provide clues to plant operators towards raising the operational and environmental performance of CFPPs.

Keywords: Coal fired power plants, environmental performance, data envelopment analysis, operational performance.

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9052 An Improved Scheduling Strategy in Cloud Using Trust Based Mechanism

Authors: D. Sumathi, P. Poongodi

Abstract:

Cloud Computing refers to applications delivered as services over the internet, and the datacenters that provide those services with hardware and systems software. These were earlier referred to as Software as a Service (SaaS). Scheduling is justified by job components (called tasks), lack of information. In fact, in a large fraction of jobs from machine learning, bio-computing, and image processing domains, it is possible to estimate the maximum time required for a task in the job. This study focuses on Trust based scheduling to improve cloud security by modifying Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm. It also proposes TR-HEFT (Trust Reputation HEFT) which is then compared to Dynamic Load Scheduling.

Keywords: Software as a Service (SaaS), Trust, Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm, Dynamic Load Scheduling.

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9051 Quality of Life Assessment across the Cancer Continuum: Understanding the Role of an Exercise Rehabilitation Programme

Authors: Bernat-Carles Serdà Ferrer, Arantza Del Valle Gómez

Abstract:

The Quality of Life (QoL) paradigm is multidimensional, dynamic and modular and its definition differs across the cancer continuum. The challenge in the interpretation of QoL data in clinical research is that QoL is influenced by psychological phenomena such as adaptation to illness. This research aims to obtain a valid and sensitive assessment of QoL change over the continuum disease, and to evaluate a rehabilitation programme aimed at inverting the observed decrease in QoL when patients return to daily living activities. The sample comprised 66 men. Patients were first assessed to establish a baseline (P1-diagnosis). This was followed by a post-test (P2-discharge) and a then-test measurement (P3-retrospective evaluation) and after returning home patients were randomized in experimental and control groups. The experimental group attended a rehabilitation programme over 24 weeks (P4). Results show that from baseline to post-test, QoL decreased significantly. The recalibration then-test confirmed a low QoL in all periods evaluated. Significant differences between the experimental and control groups prove the positive effect of the Exercise Rehabilitation Programme (ERP) on QoL. Understanding the real dynamic of QoL over time would help to adapt rehabilitation programmes by improving sensitivity and efficacy and provide professionals with a more accurate perception of the impact of treatment and side effects on patients’ QoL. Our results underline the importance of changing the approach adopted by health professionals towards one of watchful waiting on patients’ QoL until their complete recovery in daily life.

Keywords: Prostate cancer, quality of life, rehabilitation programme, response shift.

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9050 Study of Asphaltene Precipitation İnduced Formation Damage During CO2 Injection for a Malaysian Light Oil

Authors: Sima Sh. Alian, Abdul Aziz Omar, Ali F. Alta'ee, Irzie Hani

Abstract:

In this work, the precipitation of asphaltene from a Malaysian light oil reservoir was studies. A series of experiments were designed and carried out to examine the effect of CO2 injection on asphaltene precipitation. Different pressures of injections were used in Dynamic flooding experiment in order to investigate the effect of pressure versus injection pore volume of CO2. These dynamic displacement tests simulate reservoir condition. Results show that by increasing the pore volume of injected gas asphaltene precipitation will increases, also rise in injection pressure causes less precipitation. Sandstone core plug was used to represent reservoir formation during displacement test; therefore it made it possible to study the effect of present of asphaltene on formation. It is found out that the precipitated asphaltene can reduce permeability and porosity which is not favorable during oil production.

Keywords: Asphaltene, asphaltene precipitation, enhanced oil recovery.

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