Search results for: computer aided prediction.

Authors: Venerando E. Amaro, Francisco Gabriel F. de Lima, Marcelo S.T. Santos

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The morphological short-term evolution of Ponta do Tubarão Island (PTI) was investigated through high accurate surveys based on post-processed kinematic (PPK) relative positioning on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). PTI is part of a barrier island system on a high energy northeast Brazilian coastal environment and also an area of high environmental sensitivity. Surveys were carried out quarterly over a two years period from May 2010 to May 2012. This paper assesses statically the performance of digital elevation models (DEM) derived from different interpolation methods to represent morphologic features and to quantify volumetric changes and TIN models shown the best results to that purposes. The MDE allowed quantifying surfaces and volumes in detail as well as identifying the most vulnerable segments of the PTI to erosion and/or accumulation of sediments and relate the alterations to climate conditions. The coastal setting and geometry of PTI protects a significant mangrove ecosystem and some oil and gas facilities installed in the vicinities from damaging effects of strong oceanwaves and currents. Thus, the maintenance of PTI is extremely required but the prediction of its longevity is uncertain because results indicate an irregularity of sedimentary balance and a substantial decline in sediment supply to this coastal area.

Keywords: DEM, GNSS, short-term monitoring, Brazil.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Rachid Zentar, Mokrane Bala, Pascal Boustingorry

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The prediction of the rheological behavior of concrete is at the center of current concerns of the concrete industry for different reasons. The shortage of good quality standard materials combined with variable properties of available materials imposes to improve existing models to take into account these variations at the design stage of concrete. The main reasons for improving the predictive models are, of course, saving time and cost at the design stage as well as to optimize concrete performances. In this study, we will highlight the different properties of the granular mixtures that affect the rheological properties of concrete. Our objective is to identify the intrinsic parameters of the aggregates which make it possible to predict the yield stress of concrete. The work was done using two typologies of grains: crushed and rolled aggregates. The experimental results have shown that the rheology of concrete is improved by increasing the packing density of the granular mixture using rolled aggregates. The experimental program realized allowed to model the yield stress of concrete by a modified model of Chateau et al. through a dimensionless parameter following Krieger-Dougherty law. The modelling confirms that the yield stress of concrete depends not only on the properties of cement paste but also on the packing density of the granular skeleton and the shape of grains.

Keywords: Crushed aggregates, intrinsic viscosity, packing density, rolled aggregates, slump, yield stress of concrete.

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Authors: T.C.Manjunath, C. Ardil

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This paper deals with the development of a Jacobean model for a 4-axes indigenously developed scara robot arm in the laboratory. This model is used to study the relation between the velocities and the forces in the robot while it is doing the pick and place operation.

Keywords: SCARA, Jacobean, Tool Configuration Vector, Computer Control , Visual Basic , Interfacing , Drivers,

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Authors: A. Soualem

Abstract:

Springback is a significant problem in the sheet metal forming process. When the tools are released after the stage of forming, the product springs out, because of the action of the internal stresses. In many cases the deviation of form is too large and the compensation of the springback is necessary. The precise prediction of the springback of product is increasingly significant for the design of the tools and for compensation because of the higher ratio of the yield stress to the elastic modulus. The main object in this paper was to study the effect of the anisotropy on the springback for three directions of rolling: 0°, 45° and 90°. At the same time, we highlighted the influence of three different metallic materials: Aluminum, Steel and Galvanized steel. The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the springback according to the direction of rolling. We also showed the role of lubrication in the reduction of the springback. Moreover, in this work, we have studied important characteristics in deep drawing process which is a springback. We have presented defaults that are showed in this process and many parameters influenced a springback. Finally, our results works lead us to understand the influence of grains orientation with different metallic materials on the springback and drawing some conclusions how to concept deep drawing tools. In addition, the conducted work represents a fundamental contribution in the discussion the industry application.

Keywords: Deep-Drawing, Grains orientation, Laminate Tool, Springback.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo, Bloodless Dzwairo

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In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Keywords: Hydrological characteristic, land and climate, runoff discharge, streamflow.

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Authors: Wen-Shyong Tzou, Chih-Ching Huang, Chin-Hwa Hu, Ying-Tsang Lo, Tun-Wen Pai, Chia-Yin Chiang, Chung-Hao Li, Hong-Jyuan Jian

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Plasmin plays an important role in the human circulatory system owing to its catalytic ability of fibrinolysis. The immediate injection of plasmin in patients of strokes has intrigued many scientists to design vectors that can transport plasmin to the desired location in human body. Here we predict the structure of human plasmin and investigate the interaction of plasmin with the gold-nanoparticle. Because the crystal structure of plasminogen has been solved, we deleted N-terminal domain (Pan-apple domain) of plasminogen and generate a mimic of the active form of this enzyme (plasmin). We conducted a simulated annealing process on plasmin and discovered a very large conformation occurs. Kringle domains 1, 4 and 5 had been observed to leave its original location relative to the main body of the enzyme and the original doughnut shape of this enzyme has been transformed to a V-shaped by opening its two arms. This observation of conformational change is consistent with the experimental results of neutron scattering and centrifugation. We subsequently docked the plasmin on the simulated gold surface to predict their interaction. The V-shaped plasmin could utilize its Kringle domain and catalytic domain to contact the gold surface. Our findings not only reveal the flexibility of plasmin structure but also provide a guide for the design of a plasmin-gold nanoparticle.

Keywords: Docking, gold nanoparticle, molecular simulation, plasmin.

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Authors: J. K. Adedeji, S. T. Ijatuyi

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The application of neural network using pattern recognition to study the fluid dynamics and predict the groundwater reservoirs properties has been used in this research. The essential of geophysical survey using the manual methods has failed in basement environment, hence the need for an intelligent computing such as predicted from neural network is inevitable. A non-linear neural network with an XOR (exclusive OR) output of 8-bits configuration has been used in this research to predict the nature of groundwater reservoirs and fluid dynamics of a typical basement crystalline rock. The control variables are the apparent resistivity of weathered layer (p₁), fractured layer (p₂), and the depth (h), while the dependent variable is the flow parameter (F=λ). The algorithm that was used in training the neural network is the back-propagation coded in C++ language with 300 epoch runs. The neural network was very intelligent to map out the flow channels and detect how they behave to form viable storage within the strata. The neural network model showed that an important variable g_r (gravitational resistance) can be deduced from the elevation and apparent resistivity p_a. The model results from SPSS showed that the coefficients, a, b and c are statistically significant with reduced standard error at 5%.

Keywords: Neural network, gravitational resistance, pattern recognition, non-linear.

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Authors: Dong-Hyun Kim, Yoo-Han Kim

Abstract:

In this study, aeroelastic response and performance analyses have been conducted for a 5MW-Class composite wind turbine blade model. Advanced coupled numerical method based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational flexible multi-body dynamics (CFMBD) has been developed in order to investigate aeroelastic responses and performance characteristics of the rotating composite blade. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with k-ω SST turbulence model were solved for unsteady flow problems on the rotating turbine blade model. Also, structural analyses considering rotating effect have been conducted using the general nonlinear finite element method. A fully implicit time marching scheme based on the Newmark direct integration method is applied to solve the coupled aeroelastic governing equations of the 3D turbine blade for fluid-structure interaction (FSI) problems. Detailed dynamic responses and instantaneous velocity contour on the blade surfaces which considering flow-separation effects were presented to show the multi-physical phenomenon of the huge rotating wind- turbine blade model.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Multi-Body Dynamics (CMBD), Reynolds-averageNavier-Stokes (RANS), Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI), FiniteElement Method (FEM)

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Authors: Walenty Oniszczuk

Abstract:

The use of buffer thresholds, blocking and adequate service strategies are well-known techniques for computer networks traffic congestion control. This motivates the study of series queues with blocking, feedback (service under Head of Line (HoL) priority discipline) and finite capacity buffers with thresholds. In this paper, the external traffic is modelled using the Poisson process and the service times have been modelled using the exponential distribution. We consider a three-station network with two finite buffers, for which a set of thresholds (tm1 and tm2) is defined. This computer network behaves as follows. A task, which finishes its service at station B, gets sent back to station A for re-processing with probability o. When the number of tasks in the second buffer exceeds a threshold tm2 and the number of task in the first buffer is less than tm1, the fed back task is served under HoL priority discipline. In opposite case, for fed backed tasks, “no two priority services in succession" procedure (preventing a possible overflow in the first buffer) is applied. Using an open Markovian queuing schema with blocking, priority feedback service and thresholds, a closed form cost-effective analytical solution is obtained. The model of servers linked in series is very accurate. It is derived directly from a twodimensional state graph and a set of steady-state equations, followed by calculations of main measures of effectiveness. Consequently, efficient expressions of the low computational cost are determined. Based on numerical experiments and collected results we conclude that the proposed model with blocking, feedback and thresholds can provide accurate performance estimates of linked in series networks.

Keywords: Blocking, Congestion control, Feedback, Markov chains, Performance evaluation, Threshold-base networks.

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Chen-Zon Yan, C. K. Huang, Chun-Chien Ting

Abstract:

Since the vision system application in industrial environment for autonomous purposes is required intensely, the image recognition technique becomes an important research topic. Here, deep learning algorithm is employed in image system to recognize the industrial object and integrate with a 7A6 Series Manipulator for object automatic gripping task. PC and Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) are chosen to construct the 3D Vision Recognition System. Depth Camera (Intel RealSense SR300) is employed to extract the image for object recognition and coordinate derivation. The YOLOv2 scheme is adopted in Convolution neural network (CNN) structure for object classification and center point prediction. Additionally, image processing strategy is used to find the object contour for calculating the object orientation angle. Then, the specified object location and orientation information are sent to robotic controller. Finally, a six-axis manipulator can grasp the specific object in a random environment based on the user command and the extracted image information. The experimental results show that YOLOv2 has been successfully employed to detect the object location and category with confidence near 0.9 and 3D position error less than 0.4 mm. It is useful for future intelligent robotic application in industrial 4.0 environment.

Keywords: Deep learning, image processing, convolution neural network, YOLOv2, 7A6 series manipulator.

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Authors: A. Soualem

Abstract:

The design of multi stage deep drawing processes requires the evaluation of many process parameters such as the intermediate die geometry, the blank shape, the sheet thickness, the blank holder force, friction, lubrication etc..These process parameters have to be determined for the optimum forming conditions before the process design. In general sheet metal forming may involve stretching drawing or various combinations of these basic modes of deformation. It is important to determine the influence of the process variables in the design of sheet metal working process. Especially, the punch and die corner for deep drawing will affect the formability. At the same time the prediction of sheet metals springback after deep drawing is an important issue to solve for the control of manufacturing processes. Nowadays, the importance of this problem increases because of the use of steel sheeting with high stress and also aluminum alloys.

The aim of this paper is to give a better understanding of the springback and its effect in various sheet metals forming process such as expansion and restreint deep drawing in the cup drawing process, by varying radius die, lubricant for two commercially available materials e.g. galvanized steel and Aluminum sheet. To achieve these goals experiments were carried out and compared with other results. The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the springback.

Keywords: Deep drawing, Expansion, Restreint deep drawing, Springback.

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Authors: Chunghan Li, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy F. Sang

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Augmented Reality is an application which combines a live view of real-world environment and computer-generated images. This paper studies and demonstrates an efficient Augmented Reality development in the mobile Android environment with the native Java language and Android SDK. Major components include Barcode Reader, File Loader, Marker Detector, Transform Matrix Generator, and a cloud database.

Keywords: Augmented Reality, Android.

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Authors: Mehdi Tatari

Abstract:

Finding the interpolation function of a given set of nodes is an important problem in scientific computing. In this work a kind of localization is introduced using the radial basis functions which finds a sufficiently smooth solution without consuming large amount of time and computer memory. Some examples will be presented to show the efficiency of the new method.

Keywords: Radial basis functions, local interpolation method, closed form solution.

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Authors: Rabia Bibi, Muhammad Shahzad Faisal, Khalid Iqbal, Atif Inayat

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Internet is growing rapidly and new community-based content is added by people every second. With this fast-growing community-based content, if a user requires answers of particular questions, then reviews are required from experts or community. However, it is difficult to get quality answers. The Muslim community all over the world is seeking help to get their questions and issues discussed to get answers. Online web portals of religious schools and community-based question answering sites are two big platforms to solve the issues of users. In the case of religious schools, there are experts and qualified religious scholars (mufti) who can give the expert opinion. However, the quality of community-based content cannot be guaranteed as it may not be an answer that satisfies the question of a user. Users on CQA sites may include spammers or individual criticizing the questioner instead of providing useful answers. In this paper, we research strategies to naturally distinguish the right content. As an experiment, we concentrate on Yahoo! Answers, and Quora, popular online QA sites, where questions are asked, answered, edited, and organized by a large community of users. We present the classification of data to categorize both relevant and irrelevant answers. Specifically, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can isolate quality answers from the rest with an exactness near that of people.

Keywords: Community-based question and answering, evaluation and prediction of quality answer, answer classification, Islamic content, answer ranking.

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Authors: Ventzas Dimitrios, Petropoulos George

Abstract:

The paper presents a compressor anti-surge control system, that results in maximizing compressor throughput with pressure standard deviation reduction, increased safety margin between design point and surge limit line and avoiding possible machine surge. Alternative control strategies are presented.

Keywords: Anti-surge, control, compressor, PID control, safety, fault tolerance, start-up, ESD.

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Authors: Juhee Lee, Yongjun Lee

Abstract:

In designing a low-energy-consuming buildings, the heat transfer through a large glass or wall becomes critical. Multiple layers of the window glasses and walls are employed for the high insulation. The gravity driven air flow between window glasses or wall layers is a natural heat convection phenomenon being a key of the heat transfer. For the first step of the natural heat transfer analysis, in this study the development and application of a finite volume method for the numerical computation of viscous incompressible flows is presented. It will become a part of the natural convection analysis with high-order scheme, multi-grid method, and dual-time step in the future. A finite volume method based on a fully-implicit second-order is used to discretize and solve the fluid flow on unstructured grids composed of arbitrary-shaped cells. The integrations of the governing equation are discretised in the finite volume manner using a collocated arrangement of variables. The convergence of the SIMPLE segregated algorithm for the solution of the coupled nonlinear algebraic equations is accelerated by using a sparse matrix solver such as BiCGSTAB. The method used in the present study is verified by applying it to some flows for which either the numerical solution is known or the solution can be obtained using another numerical technique available in the other researches. The accuracy of the method is assessed through the grid refinement.

Keywords: Finite volume method, fluid flow, laminar flow, unstructured grid.

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Authors: Zeynep İltüzer Samur, Gül Tekin Temur

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Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.

Keywords: Option Pricing, Neural Network, S&P 100 Index, American/European options

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Authors: A. Zahiri, A. A. Dehghani

Abstract:

Although many researchers have studied the flow hydraulics in compound channels, there are still many complicated problems in determination of their flow rating curves. Many different methods have been presented for these channels but extending them for all types of compound channels with different geometrical and hydraulic conditions is certainly difficult. In this study, by aid of nearly 400 laboratory and field data sets of geometry and flow rating curves from 30 different straight compound sections and using artificial neural networks (ANNs), flow discharge in compound channels was estimated. 13 dimensionless input variables including relative depth, relative roughness, relative width, aspect ratio, bed slope, main channel side slopes, flood plains side slopes and berm inclination and one output variable (flow discharge), have been used in ANNs. Comparison of ANNs model and traditional method (divided channel method-DCM) shows high accuracy of ANNs model results. The results of Sensitivity analysis showed that the relative depth with 47.6 percent contribution, is the most effective input parameter for flow discharge prediction. Relative width and relative roughness have 19.3 and 12.2 percent of importance, respectively. On the other hand, shape parameter, main channel and flood plains side slopes with 2.1, 3.8 and 3.8 percent of contribution, have the least importance.

Keywords: ANN model, compound channels, divided channel method (DCM), flow rating curve

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

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Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Abdel-Kareem, Hala. Abousafa, Omia S. El-Hadidi

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The results of an experimental program conducted on seventeen simply supported concrete beams to study the effect of transverse reinforcement on the behavior of lap splice of steel reinforcement in tension zones in high strength concrete beams, are presented. The parameters included in the experimental program were the concrete compressive strength, the lap splice length, the amount of transverse reinforcement provided within the splice region, and the shape of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars. The experimental results showed that the displacement ductility increased and the mode of failure changed from splitting bond failure to flexural failure when the amount of transverse reinforcement in splice region increased, and the compressive strength increased up to 100 MPa. The presence of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars had pronounced effect on increasing the ultimate load, the ultimate deflection, and the displacement ductility. The prediction of maximum steel stresses for spliced bars using ACI 318-05 building code was compared with the experimental results. The comparison showed that the effect of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars has to be considered into the design equations for lap splice length in high strength concrete beams.

Keywords: Ductility, high strength concrete, tension lap splice, transverse reinforcement, steel stresses.

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Authors: Iman Zangeneh, Mostafa Moradi, Ali Mokhtarbaf

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The necessity of ever-increasing use of distributed data in computer networks is obvious for all. One technique that is performed on the distributed data for increasing of efficiency and reliablity is data rplication. In this paper, after introducing this technique and its advantages, we will examine some dynamic data replication. We will examine their characteristies for some overus scenario and the we will propose some suggestion for their improvement.

Keywords: data replication, data hiding, consistency, dynamicdata replication strategy

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Authors: Mehdi Moayyedian, Kazem Abhary, Romeo Marian

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This paper presents an evaluation of a plastic defect in injection molding before it occurs in the process; it is known as the short shot defect. The evaluation of different parameters which affect the possibility of short shot defect is the aim of this paper. The analysis of short shot possibility is conducted via SolidWorks Plastics and Taguchi method to determine the most significant parameters. Finite Element Method (FEM) is employed to analyze two circular flat polypropylene plates of 1 mm thickness. Filling time, part cooling time, pressure holding time, melt temperature and gate type are chosen as process and geometric parameters, respectively. A methodology is presented herein to predict the possibility of the short-shot occurrence. The analysis determined melt temperature is the most influential parameter affecting the possibility of short shot defect with a contribution of 74.25%, and filling time with a contribution of 22%, followed by gate type with a contribution of 3.69%. It was also determined the optimum level of each parameter leading to a reduction in the possibility of short shot are gate type at level 1, filling time at level 3 and melt temperature at level 3. Finally, the most significant parameters affecting the possibility of short shot were determined to be melt temperature, filling time, and gate type.

Keywords: Injection molding, plastic defects, short shot, Taguchi method.

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Authors: Y. Z. Wu, Z. Dong, S. K. You

Abstract:

Global approximation using metamodel for complex mathematical function or computer model over a large variable domain is often needed in sensibility analysis, computer simulation, optimal control, and global design optimization of complex, multiphysics systems. To overcome the limitations of the existing response surface (RS), surrogate or metamodel modeling methods for complex models over large variable domain, a new adaptive and regressive RS modeling method using quadratic functions and local area model improvement schemes is introduced. The method applies an iterative and Latin hypercube sampling based RS update process, divides the entire domain of design variables into multiple cells, identifies rougher cells with large modeling error, and further divides these cells along the roughest dimension direction. A small number of additional sampling points from the original, expensive model are added over the small and isolated rough cells to improve the RS model locally until the model accuracy criteria are satisfied. The method then combines local RS cells to regenerate the global RS model with satisfactory accuracy. An effective RS cells sorting algorithm is also introduced to improve the efficiency of model evaluation. Benchmark tests are presented and use of the new metamodeling method to replace complex hybrid electrical vehicle powertrain performance model in vehicle design optimization and optimal control are discussed.

Keywords: Global approximation, polynomial response surface, domain decomposition, domain combination, multiphysics modeling, hybrid powertrain optimization

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Authors: Tholokuhle T. Ntshakala, Seraphin D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Nations are still finding it quite difficult to win mega sport competitions despite the major contribution of sport to society in terms of social and economic development, personal health, and in education. Even though the world of sports has been transformed into a huge global economy, it is important to note that the first step of sport is usually its introduction to children at school through physical education or PE. In other words, nations who do not win mega sport competitions also suffer from a weak and neglected PE system. This problem of the neglect of PE systems is the main motivation of this research aimed at examining the factors affecting the perceived awareness of physical education teachers on the ICTs that are adoptable for the teaching and learning of physical education. Two types of research objectives will materialize this aim: relevant theories will be identified in relation to the analysis of the perceived ICT awareness of PE teachers and subsequent models will be compiled and designed from existing literature; the empirical testing of such theories and models will also be achieved through the survey of PE teachers from the Camperdown magisterial district of the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The main hypothesis at the heart of this study is the relationship between the demographics of PE teachers, their behavior both as individuals and as social entities, and their perceived awareness of the ICTs that are adoptable for PE, as postulated by existing literature; except that this study categorizes human behavior under performance expectancy, computer attitude, and social influence. This hypothesis was partially confirmed by the survey conducted by this research in the sense that performance expectancy and teachers’ age, gender, computer usage, and class size were found to be the only factors affecting their awareness of ICTs for physical education.

Keywords: Human Behavior, ICT Awareness, Physical Education, Teachers.

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

Abstract:

This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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Authors: T. Holden, G. Tremberger, Jr, E. Cheung, R. Subramaniam, R. Sullivan, N. Gadura, P. Schneider, P. Marchese, A. Flamholz, T. Cheung, D. Lieberman

Abstract:

A nucleotide sequence can be expressed as a numerical sequence when each nucleotide is assigned its proton number. A resulting gene numerical sequence can be investigated for its fractal dimension in terms of evolution and chemical properties for comparative studies. We have investigated such nucleotide fluctuation in the 16S rRNA gene of archaea thermophiles. The studied archaea thermophiles were archaeoglobus fulgidus, methanothermobacter thermautotrophicus, methanocaldococcus jannaschii, pyrococcus horikoshii, and thermoplasma acidophilum. The studied five archaea-euryarchaeota thermophiles have fractal dimension values ranging from 1.93 to 1.97. Computer simulation shows that random sequences would have an average of about 2 with a standard deviation about 0.015. The fractal dimension was found to correlate (negative correlation) with the thermophile-s optimal growth temperature with R2 value of 0.90 (N =5). The inclusion of two aracheae-crenarchaeota thermophiles reduces the R2 value to 0.66 (N = 7). Further inclusion of two bacterial thermophiles reduces the R2 value to 0.50 (N =9). The fractal dimension is correlated (positive) to the sequence GC content with an R2 value of 0.89 for the five archaea-euryarchaeota thermophiles (and 0.74 for the entire set of N = 9), although computer simulation shows little correlation. The highest correlation (positive) was found to be between the fractal dimension and di-nucleotide Shannon entropy. However Shannon entropy and sequence GC content were observed to correlate with optimal growth temperature having an R2 of 0.8 (negative), and 0.88 (positive), respectively, for the entire set of 9 thermophiles; thus the correlation lacks species specificity. Together with another correlation study of bacterial radiation dosage with RecA repair gene sequence fractal dimension, it is postulated that fractal dimension analysis is a sensitive tool for studying the relationship between genotype and phenotype among closely related sequences.

Keywords: Fractal dimension, archaea thermophiles, Shannon entropy, GC content

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Authors: Hsing-Kuo Pao, John Case

Abstract:

Biological sequences from different species are called or-thologs if they evolved from a sequence of a common ancestor species and they have the same biological function. Approximations of Kolmogorov complexity or entropy of biological sequences are already well known to be useful in extracting similarity information between such sequences -in the interest, for example, of ortholog detection. As is well known, the exact Kolmogorov complexity is not algorithmically computable. In prac-tice one can approximate it by computable compression methods. How-ever, such compression methods do not provide a good approximation to Kolmogorov complexity for short sequences. Herein is suggested a new ap-proach to overcome the problem that compression approximations may notwork well on short sequences. This approach is inspired by new, conditional computations of Kolmogorov entropy. A main contribution of the empir-ical work described shows the new set of entropy-based machine learning attributes provides good separation between positive (ortholog) and nega-tive (non-ortholog) data - better than with good, previously known alter-natives (which do not employ some means to handle short sequences well).Also empirically compared are the new entropy based attribute set and a number of other, more standard similarity attributes sets commonly used in genomic analysis. The various similarity attributes are evaluated by cross validation, through boosted decision tree induction C5.0, and by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The results point to the conclu-sion: the new, entropy based attribute set by itself is not the one giving the best prediction; however, it is the best attribute set for use in improving the other, standard attribute sets when conjoined with them.

Keywords: compression, decision tree, entropy, ortholog, ROC.

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Authors: Lisa M. Weltzer-Ward, Abbie Brown

Abstract:

The sequence Analyze, Design, Develop, Implement, and Evaluate (ADDIE) provides a powerful methodology for designing computer-based educational materials. Helping students to understand this design process sequence may be achieved by providing them with direct, guided experience. This article examines such help and guidance and the overall learning process from a student-s personal experience.

Keywords: ADDIE, education, instructional design, web design.

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