Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 31584
A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba


This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 466


[1] D. Lawal, “Cement Sector Update,” Equity Research. Cardinalstone, pp. 1–14, 2016.
[2] NSL, “Sectorial Analysis - Cement Companies,” Nigerian Stockbrockers Limited Research Desk, 2015. (Online). Available: (Accessed: 21-Jul-2019).
[3] F. O. Oladipo and O. J. Oni, “A Review of Selected Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Building Material Prices in Developing Countries - A Case of Nigeria,” Ethiop. J. Environ. Stud. Manag., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 131–137, 2012.
[4] DLM, “The Nigerian Cement Industry.” Dunn Loren Merrifield Research, 2014.
[5] J. N. Mojekwu, A. Idowu, and O. Sode, “Analysis of the Contribution of Imported and Locally Manufactured Cement to the Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria (1986 – 2011),” African J. Bus. Manag., vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 360–371, 2013.
[6] M. S. Mamlouk and J. P. Zaniewski, Materials for Civil and Construction Engineers, 3rd ed. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2011.
[7] M. Ajmal, “Evaluation of Financial Performance of Cement Corporation of India (CCI) Limited,” 2015.
[8] P. K. Kumar, S. F. John, and S. Senith, “A Study on Factors Affecting Performance of Indian Cement Industry,” Eur. J. Bus. Manag., vol. 5, no. 29, pp. 191–200, 2013.
[9] J. N. Mukhopadhyaya, M. Roy, and A. Raychaudhuri, “An Analytical Structure in the Cement Industry of India,” IMJ, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 11–23, 2012.
[10] M. Bediako, E. O. Amankwah, and D. Adobor, “The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Cement Prices in Ghana,” J. Sci. Res. Reports, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 1–6, 2016.
[11] H. A. Bassioni, M. I. Elmasry, A. M. Ragheb, and A. Abeer, “Time Series Analysis for the Prediction of RC Material Components Prices in Egypt,” in Procs 28th Annual ARCOM Conference, 2012, no. 3-5 September, pp. 381–390.
[12] S. Islam, M. Arafin, and F. T. Zohora, “Factors Affecting Share Price of Cement Industry: A Study on Listed Cement Companies of DSE,” Eur. J. Business, Econ. Account., vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 48–66, 2017.
[13] S. Alam, R. Miah, and A. Karim, “Analysis on Factors that Affect Stock Prices : A Study on Listed Cement Companies at Dhaka Stock Exchange,” Res. J. Financ. Account., vol. 7, no. 18, pp. 93–113, 2016.
[14] L. Gardashova and N. Huseynov, “Cement Industry Overview and Market Price Forecasting In Azerbaijan,” Int. J. Eng. Res. Appl., vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 32–38, 2016.
[15] G. Çalmaşur and H. Daştan, “Concentration in the Turkish Cement Industry,” Asian Soc. Sci., vol. 11, no. 26, pp. 142–153, 2015.
[16] Dangote Cement, An Emerging Cement Major Building Shareholder Value and Prosperity in Africa, September. Dangote Group, 2014.
[17] S. O. Igbinosa and I. L. Eghosa, “Assessing the Level of Concentration and Competition in the Nigerian Money and Capital Markets,” Multi-Disciplinary J. Res. Dev. Perspect., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 52–63, 2015.
[18] J. Makoju, Unaudited results for the three months ended 31st March 2019, no. April. Dangote Group, 2019.
[19] Central Bank of Nigeria, “Inflation Rates,” Central Bank of Nigeria: Money and Credit Statistics, 2018. (Online). Available: (Accessed: 21-Oct-2018).
[20] R. Bloch, N. Makarem, M. Yunusa, N. Papachristodoulou, and M. Crighton, “Economic Development in Urban Nigeria,” ICF International. Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlike CC BY-NC-SA, London, 2015.
[21] Lafarge Cement, “Strong Profitability Improvement in Q1 2019,” 2019. (Online). Available: (Accessed: 23-Jul-2019).
[22] H. F. W. Taylor, Cement Chemistry, 2nd ed. London: Thomas Telford, 1997.
[23] United Nations, “World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations,” 2019. (Online). Available: (Accessed: 21-Oct-2018).
[24] S. Chukwudi, G. Chigozie, and S. Chukwujekwu, “The Correlation between Foreign Exchange Rates and Prices of Building Materials in Nigeria, 2011-2017,” Int. J. Bus. Manag., vol. 5, no. 10, pp. 94–100, 2017.
[25] NBS, Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Q1 2019), no. May. National Bureau of Statistics, 2019.
[26] IMF, Nigeria: Country Data. International Monetary Fund, 2019.