Search results for: sojourn time

Authors: J. D. Mallapur, Supriya H., Santosh B. K., Tej H.

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The cellular network is one of the emerging areas of communication, in which the mobile nodes act as member for one base station. The cluster based communication is now an emerging area of wireless cellular multimedia networks. The cluster renders fast communication and also a convenient way to work with connectivity. In our scheme we have proposed an optimization technique for the fuzzy cluster nodes, by categorizing the group members into three categories like long refreshable member, medium refreshable member and short refreshable member. By considering long refreshable nodes as static nodes, we compute the new membership values for the other nodes in the cluster. We compare their previous and present membership value with the threshold value to categorize them into three different members. By which, we optimize the nodes in the fuzzy clusters. The simulation results show that there is reduction in the cluster computational time and iterational time after optimization.

Keywords: Clusters, fuzzy and optimization.

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Kukreja, Ravneet Kaur

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In this paper, one dimensional advection diffusion model is analyzed using finite difference method based on Crank-Nicolson scheme. A practical problem of filter cake washing of chemical engineering is analyzed. The model is converted into dimensionless form. For the grid Ω × ω = [0, 1] × [0, T], the Crank-Nicolson spatial derivative scheme is used in space domain and forward difference scheme is used in time domain. The scheme is found to be unconditionally convergent, stable, first order accurate in time and second order accurate in space domain. For a test problem, numerical results are compared with the analytical ones for different values of parameter.

Keywords: Consistency, Crank-Nicolson scheme, Gerschgorin circle, Lax-Richtmyer theorem, Peclet number, stability.

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Authors: S.Shokri, S.Zahedi, M.Ahmadi Marvast, B. Baloochi, H.Ganji

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In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .

Keywords: Statistical model, Multiphase Reactors, Gas oil, Hydrodesulfurization, Optimization, Kinetics

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Authors: Luminiţa Duţică

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For the music composer Myriam Marbe the musical time and memory represent 2 (complementary) phenomena with conclusive impact on the settlement of new musical ontologies. Summarizing the most important achievements of the contemporary techniques of composition, her vision on the microform presented in The Concert for Daniel Kientzy, saxophone and orchestra transcends the linear and unidirectional time in favour of a flexible, multivectorial speech with spiral developments, where the sound substance is auto(re)generated by analogy with the fundamental processes of the memory. The conceptual model is of an archetypal essence, the music composer being concerned with identifying the mechanisms of the creation process, especially of those specific to the collective creation (of oral tradition). Hence the spontaneity of expression, improvisation tint, free rhythm, micro-interval intonation, coloristictimbral universe dominated by multiphonics and unique sound effects, hence the atmosphere of ritual, however purged by the primary connotations and reprojected into a wonderful spectacular space. The Concert is a work of artistic maturity and enforces respect, among others, by the timbral diversity of the three species of saxophone required by the music composer (baritone, sopranino and alt), in Part III Daniel Kientzy shows the performance of playing two saxophones concomitantly. The score of the music composer Myriam Marbe contains a deeply spiritualized music, full or archetypal symbols, a music whose drama suggests a real cinematographic movement.

Keywords: Archetype, chronogenesis, concert, multiphonics.

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh, Suman

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The data is available in abundance in any business organization. It includes the records for finance, maintenance, inventory, progress reports etc. As the time progresses, the data keep on accumulating and the challenge is to extract the information from this data bank. Knowledge discovery from these large and complex databases is the key problem of this era. Data mining and machine learning techniques are needed which can scale to the size of the problems and can be customized to the application of business. For the development of accurate and required information for particular problem, business analyst needs to develop multidimensional models which give the reliable information so that they can take right decision for particular problem. If the multidimensional model does not possess the advance features, the accuracy cannot be expected. The present work involves the development of a Multidimensional data model incorporating advance features. The criterion of computation is based on the data precision and to include slowly change time dimension. The final results are displayed in graphical form.

Keywords: Multidimensional, data precision.

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Authors: Hsien-Chou Liao, Yu-Shiang Wang

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Surveillance system is widely used in the traffic monitoring. The deployment of cameras is moving toward a ubiquitous camera (UbiCam) environment. In our previous study, a novel service, called GPS-VT, was firstly proposed by incorporating global positioning system (GPS) and visual tracking techniques for the UbiCam environment. The first prototype is called GODTA (GPS-based Moving Object Detection and Tracking Approach). For a moving person carried GPS-enabled mobile device, he can be tracking when he enters the field-of-view (FOV) of a camera according to his real-time GPS coordinate. In this paper, GPS-VT service is applied to the tracking of vehicles. The moving speed of a vehicle is much faster than a person. It means that the time passing through the FOV is much shorter than that of a person. Besides, the update interval of GPS coordinate is once per second, it is asynchronous with the frame rate of the real-time image. The above asynchronous is worsen by the network transmission delay. These factors are the main challenging to fulfill GPS-VT service on a vehicle.In order to overcome the influence of the above factors, a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is used to predict the possible lane before the vehicle enters the FOV of a camera. Then, a template matching technique is used for the visual tracking of a target vehicle. The experimental result shows that the target vehicle can be located and tracking successfully. The success location rate of the implemented prototype is higher than that of the previous GODTA.

Keywords: visual surveillance, visual tracking, globalpositioning system, intelligent transportation system

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Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

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Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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Authors: Shiva Subhedar, Abhishek Jain, Shivin Mittal

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Icons are not merely decorative elements in enterprise applications but very often used because of their many advantages such as compactness, visual appeal, etc. Despite these potential advantages, icons often cause usability problems when they are designed without consideration for their many potential downsides. The aim of the current study was to examine the effect of articulatory distance – the distance between the physical appearance of an interface element and what it actually means. In other words, will the subject find the association of the function and its appearance on the interface natural or is the icon difficult for them to associate with its function. We have calculated response time and quality of identification by varying icon concreteness, the context of usage and subject experience in the enterprise context. The subjects were asked to associate icons (prepared for study purpose) with given function options in context and out of context mode. Response time and their selection were recorded for analysis.

Keywords: Icons, icon concreteness, icon recognition, HCI.

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Authors: Dariusz Dymek, Leszek Kotulski

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Modeling of the distributed systems allows us to represent the whole its functionality. The working system instance rarely fulfils the whole functionality represented by model; usually some parts of this functionality should be accessible periodically. The reporting system based on the Data Warehouse concept seams to be an intuitive example of the system that some of its functionality is required only from time to time. Analyzing an enterprise risk associated with the periodical change of the system functionality, we should consider not only the inaccessibility of the components (object) but also their functions (methods), and the impact of such a situation on the system functionality from the business point of view. In the paper we suggest that the risk attributes should be estimated from risk attributes specified at the requirements level (Use Case in the UML model) on the base of the information about the structure of the model (presented at other levels of the UML model). We argue that it is desirable to consider the influence of periodical changes in requirements on the enterprise risk estimation. Finally, the proposition of such a solution basing on the UML system model is presented.

Keywords: Risk assessing, software maintenance, UML, graph grammars.

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Authors: Mihai Brânzei, Ioan Plotog, Ion Pencea

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The Pads have unique values of thermophysical properties (THP) having important contribution over heat transfer into the PCB structure. Materials with high thermal diffusivity (TD) rapidly adjust their temperature to that of their surroundings, because the HT is quick in compare to their volumetric heat capacity (VHC). In the paper is presenting the diffusivity tests (ASTM E1461 flash method) for PCBs with different core materials. In the experiments, the multilayer structure of PCBA was taken into consideration, an equivalent property referring to each of experimental structure be practically measured. Concerning to entire structure, the THP emphasize the major contribution of substrate in establishing of reflow soldering process (RSP) heat transfer necessities. This conclusion offer practical solution for heat transfer time constant calculation as function of thickness and substrate material diffusivity with an acceptable error estimation.

Keywords: heat transfer time constant, packaging, reflowsoldering process, thermal diffusivity.

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Authors: Jing-Gang Xie

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As the continuation to the previous studies of gravitational frequency shift, gravitational time dilation, gravitational light bending, gravitational waves, dark matter, and dark energy are explained in the context of Newtonian mechanics. The photon is treated as the particle with mass of hν/C² under the gravitational field of much larger mass of M. Hence the quantum mechanics theory could be applied to gravitational field on cosmology scale. The obtained results are the same as those obtained by general relativity considering weak gravitational field approximation; however, the results are different when the gravitational field is substantially strong.

Keywords: Gravitational time dilation, gravitational light bending, gravitational waves, dark matter, dark energy, General Relativity, gravitational frequency shift.

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Authors: Yoshifumi Ishizaki, Naoki Kanatani, Masaki Ito, Toshihiko Sasama, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

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This paper demonstrates the bus location system for the route bus through the experiment in the real environment. A bus location system is a system that provides information such as the bus delay and positions. This system uses actual services and positions data of buses, and those information should match data on the database. The system has two possible problems. One, the system could cost high in preparing devices to get bus positions. Two, it could be difficult to match services data of buses. To avoid these problems, we have developed this system at low cost and short time by using the smart phone with GPS and the bus route system. This system realizes the path planning considering bus delay and displaying position of buses on the map. The bus location system was demonstrated on route buses with smart phones for two months.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, GPS, Smart Phone.

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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Authors: Jing Zhou, Steven Su, Aihuang Guo

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COSMED K4b2 is a portable electrical device designed to test pulmonary functions. It is ideal for many applications that need the measurement of the cardio-respiratory response either in the field or in the lab is capable with the capability to delivery real time data to a sink node or a PC base station with storing data in the memory at the same time. But the actual sensor outputs and data received may contain some errors, such as impulsive noise which can be related to sensors, low batteries, environment or disturbance in data acquisition process. These abnormal outputs might cause misinterpretations of exercise or living activities to persons being monitored. In our paper we propose an effective and feasible method to detect and identify errors in applications by principal component analysis (PCA) and a back propagation (BP) neural network.

Keywords: BP Neural Network, Exercising Testing, Fault Detection and Identification, Principal Component Analysis.

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Authors: Nazleeni S. Haron, Mohd K. Zaime , Izzatdin A. Aziz, Mohd H. Hasan

Abstract:

Text-based game is supposed to be a low resource consumption application that delivers good performances when compared to graphical-intensive type of games. But, nowadays, some of the online text-based games are not offering performances that are acceptable to the users. Therefore, an online text-based game called Star_Quest has been developed in order to analyze its behavior under different performance measurements. Performance metrics such as throughput, scalability, response time and page loading time are captured to yield the performance of the game. The techniques in performing the load testing are also disclosed to exhibit the viability of our work. The comparative assessment between the results obtained and the accepted level of performances are conducted as to determine the performance level of the game. The study reveals that the developed game managed to meet all the performance objectives set forth.

Keywords: Online text-based games, performance evaluation

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Dongyoung Lim, Gyumyong Gwak, Jaehyouk Choi

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The design philosophy of building structure has been changing time to time. The reason for this is because of an increase of human inertest, an improved building materials and technology that will impact how we live, to speed up construction period and natural effect which includes earthquake disasters and environmental effect. One technique which takes in to account the above case is using a prefabricable structural system. In which each and every structural element is designed and prefabricated and assembled on a site so that the construction speed is increased and the environmental impact is also enhanced. This system has an immense advantage such as: reduce construction cost, reusable, recyclable, speed up construction period and less environmental effect. In this study, it is tried to present some of the developed and evaluated structural elements of building structures.

Keywords: Eccentrically braced frame, Natural disaster, Prefabricable structural, Removable link, SGSS.

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Authors: D. Germanò, D. Plutino, G. Cannistraro

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The theatre-auditorium under investigation following the highly reflective characteristics of materials used in it (marble, painted wood, smooth plaster, etc), architectural and structural features of the Protocol and its intended use (very multifunctional: Auditorium, theatre, cinema, musicals, conference room) from the analysis of the statement of fact made by the acoustic simulation software Ramsete and supported by data obtained through a campaign of acoustic measurements of the state of fact made on the spot by a Fonomet Svantek model SVAN 957, appears to be acoustically inadequate. After the completion of the 3D model according to the specifications necessary software used forecast in order to be recognized by him, have made three simulations, acoustic simulation of the state of and acoustic simulation of two design solutions. Improved noise characteristics found in the first design solution, compared to the state in fact consists therefore in lowering Reverberation Time that you turn most desirable value, while the Indicators of Clarity, the Baricentric Time, the Lateral Efficiency, Ratio of Low Tmedia BR and defined the Speech Intelligibility improved significantly. Improved noise characteristics found instead in the second design solution, as compared to first design solution, is finally mostly in a more uniform distribution of Leq and in lowering Reverberation Time that you turn the optimum values. Indicators of Clarity, and the Lateral Efficiency improve further but at the expense of a value slightly worse than the BR. Slightly vary the remaining indices.

Keywords: Indoor, Acoustic, Acoustic simulation

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Authors: Muhammad Marsudi, Hani Shafeek

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The purpose of this paper is to simulate the production process of a metal stamping industry and to evaluate the utilization of the production line by using ARENA simulation software. The process time and the standard time for each process of the production line is obtained from data given by the company management. Other data are collected through direct observation of the line. There are three work stations performing ten different types of processes in order to produce a single product type. Arena simulation model is then developed based on the collected data. Verification and validation are done to the Arena model, and finally the result of Arena simulation can be analyzed. It is found that utilization at each workstation will increase if batch size is increased although throughput rate remains/is kept constant. This study is very useful for the company because the company needs to improve the efficiency and utilization of its production lines.

Keywords: Arena software, case study, production line, utilization.

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Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy are one of the major treatment modalities that play important role in the management of a number of different cancers. This study for the first time evaluates the toxicity of these treatment modalities and its impact on quality of life of cancer patients in Pakistan. The study also for the first time determines what cancer patients of different ages and cancer stages believe would be an effective intervention to manage their psychosocial needs and treatment induced toxicity. The article also provides evidence based approach for the use of variety of interventions to mange cancer treatment induced morbidity and toxicity. In light of the present study and reviewed research data, evidence based recommendations are also made for selection of appropriate interventions to manage Pain, Nausea and Vomiting, Anxiety and Depression, Fatigue and Overall QOL of cancer survivors.

Keywords: Chemotherapy Toxicity, Psycho-Social Interventions, Quality of Life, Radiotherapy Toxicity.

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Authors: Marco Soares dos Santos, Jorge Augusto Ferreira, Camila Nicola Boeri, Fernando Neto da Silva

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The present paper proposes high performance nonlinear force controllers for a servopneumatic real-time fatigue test machine. A CompactRIO® controller was used, being fully programmed using LabVIEW language. Fuzzy logic control algorithms were evaluated to tune the integral and derivative components in the development of hybrid controllers, namely a FLC P and a hybrid FLC PID real-time-based controllers. Their behaviours were described by using state diagrams. The main contribution is to ensure a smooth transition between control states, avoiding discrete transitions in controller outputs. Steady-state errors lower than 1.5 N were reached, without retuning the controllers. Good results were also obtained for sinusoidal tracking tasks from 1/¤Ç to 8/¤Ç Hz.

Keywords: Hybrid Fuzzy Selecting, Control, Range Controllers, Servopneumatic Fatigue System.

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Authors: Ding Guo-hao, Li Hua, Wang Wen-long

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A parallel computational fluid dynamics code has been developed for the study of aerodynamic heating problem in hypersonic flows. The code employs the 3D Navier-Stokes equations as the basic governing equations to simulate the laminar hypersonic flow. The cell centered finite volume method based on structured grid is applied for spatial discretization. The AUSMPW+ scheme is used for the inviscid fluxes, and the MUSCL approach is used for higher order spatial accuracy. The implicit LU-SGS scheme is applied for time integration to accelerate the convergence of computations in steady flows. A parallel programming method based on MPI is employed to shorten the computing time. The validity of the code is demonstrated by comparing the numerical calculation result with the experimental data of a hypersonic flow field around a blunt body.

Keywords: Aerodynamic Heating, AUSMPW+, MPI, ParallelComputation

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Authors: Dong Hun Kim, Won Kyu Lee, Sok Won Kim

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Small cracks or chips of a product appear very frequently in the course of continuous production of an automatic press process system. These phenomena become the cause of not only defective product but also damage of a press mold. In order to solve this problem AE system was introduced. AE system was expected to be very effective to real time detection of the defective product and to prevention of the damage of the press molds. In this study, for pick and analysis of AE signals generated from the press process, AE sensors/pre-amplifier/analysis and processing board were used as frequently found in the other similar cases. For analysis and processing the AE signals picked in real time from the good or bad products, specialized software called cdm8 was used. As a result of this work it was conformed that intensity and shape of the various AE signals differ depending on the weight and thickness of metal sheet and process type.

Keywords: press, acoustic emission, signal processing

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, OpenVSP, solver, time.

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Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

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In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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Authors: Ofelia A. Damag

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The study was focused on the development and assessment of the illustrated language activities of the 1996 Edition of the Portage Guide to Early Education. It determined the extent of appropriateness, applicability, time efficiency and aesthetics of the illustrated language activities to be used as instructional material not only by teachers, but parents and caregivers as well. The eclectic research design was applied in this study using qualitative and quantitative methods. To determine the applicability and time efficiency of the study, a try out was done. Since the eclectic research design was used, it made use of a researcher-made survey questionnaire and focus group discussion. Analysis of the data was done through weighted mean and ANOVA. The respondents of the study were representatives of Special Education (SPED) teachers, caregivers and parents of a special-needs child, particularly with difficulties in learning basic language skills. The results of the study show that a large number of respondents are SPED teachers and caregivers and are mostly college graduates. Many of them have earned units towards Master’s studies. Moreover, a majority of the respondents have not attended seminars or in-service training in early intervention for them to be more competent in the area of specialization. It is concluded that the illustrated language activities under review in this study are appropriate, applicable, time efficient and aesthetic for use as a tool in teaching. The recommendations are focused on the advocacy for SPED teachers, caregivers and parents of special-needs children to be more consistent in the implementation of the new instructional materials as an aid in an intervention program.

Keywords: Illustrated language activities, inclusion, portage guide to early education, special educational needs.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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Authors: B. Zvirbule, I. Vilka

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The Baltic States regained independence and started the pathway from command economy to market economy and entered European Union at the same time. Latter internationally recognized evaluations for the countries are diverse. The present diversity of the Baltic States -Economic Development is a subject of interest because of the similarities – all three are small, open economies, countries have similar geographic location and initially likewise historical and political backgrounds. This article explains relationship between social environment, business environment and economic growth. It argues that the elements of social environment underlie more successful economic development. It researches the causes, why Estonia has performed better in economic outcomes and development. The article analyses selection of socio-economic indicators of all three Baltic States – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for the time period of ten years to include the influence of economic cycles.

Keywords: Baltic States, economic development, economic growth, level of education, social environment.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Ch. Surawut, D. Sukawat

Abstract:

In order to utilize results from global climate models, dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques have been developed. For dynamical downscaling, usually a limited area numerical model is used, with associated high computational cost. This research proposes dynamic equation for specific space-time regional climate downscaling from the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) for Southeast Asia. The equation is for surface air temperature. This equation provides downscaling values of surface air temperature at any specific location and time without running a regional climate model. In the proposed equations, surface air temperature is approximated from ground temperature, sensible heat flux and 2m wind speed. Results from the application of the equation show that the errors from the proposed equations are less than the errors for direct interpolation from EdGCM.

Keywords: Dynamic Equation, Downscaling, Inverse distance weight interpolation.

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