Search results for: Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Mohsen. Saniei, S. S. Mortazavi, A. Saeedian

Abstract:

In this paper optimal capacitor placement problem has been formulated in a restructured distribution network. In this scenario the distribution network operator can consider reactive energy also as a service that can be sold to transmission system. Thus search for optimal location, size and number of capacitor banks with the objective of loss reduction, maximum income from selling reactive energy to transmission system and return on investment for capacitors, has been performed. Results is influenced with economic value of reactive energy, therefore problem has been solved for various amounts of it. The implemented optimization technique is genetic algorithm. For any value of reactive power economic value, when reverse of investment index increase and change from zero or negative values to positive values, the threshold value of selling reactive power has been obtained. This increasing price of economic parameter is reasonable until the network losses is less than loss before compensation.

Keywords: capacitor placement, deregulated electric market, distribution network optimization.

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Authors: Hiba Hasan, Khalid Raza

Abstract:

Reverse engineering of genetic regulatory network involves the modeling of the given gene expression data into a form of the network. Computationally it is possible to have the relationships between genes, so called gene regulatory networks (GRNs), that can help to find the genomics and proteomics based diagnostic approach for any disease. In this paper, clustering based method has been used to reconstruct genetic regulatory network from time series gene expression data. Supercoiled data set from Escherichia coli has been taken to demonstrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Gene expression, gene regulatory networks (GRNs), clustering, data preprocessing, network visualization.

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

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The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Dong Sang Yoo

Abstract:

We consider nonlinear uncertain systems such that a  priori information of the uncertainties is not available. For such  systems, we assume that the upper bound of the uncertainties is  represented as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind and we  propose an adaptation law that is capable of estimating the upper  bound and design a continuous robust control which renders nonlinear  uncertain systems ultimately bounded.

 

Keywords: Adaptive Control, Estimation, Fredholm Integral, Uncertain System.

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Authors: Banaja Mohanty, Prakash Kumar Hota

Abstract:

This paper presents a differential evolution algorithm to design a robust PI and PID controllers for Load Frequency Control (LFC) of nonlinear interconnected power systems considering the boiler dynamics, Governor Dead Band (GDB), Generation Rate Constraint (GRC). Differential evolution algorithm is employed to search for the optimal controller parameters. The proposed method easily copes of with nonlinear constraints. Further the proposed controller is simple, effective and can ensure the desirable overall system performance. The superiority of the proposed approach has been shown by comparing the results with published fuzzy logic controller for the same power systems. The comparison is done using various performance measures like overshoot, settling time and standard error criteria of frequency and tie-line power deviation following a 1% step load perturbation in hydro area. It is noticed that, the dynamic performance of proposed controller is better than fuzzy logic controller. Furthermore, it is also seen that the proposed system is robust and is not affected by change in the system parameters.

Keywords: Automatic Generation control (AGC), Generation Rate Constraint (GRC), Governor Dead Band (GDB), Differential Evolution (DE)

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Authors: Said Elkassimi, Said Safi, B. Manaut

Abstract:

This paper presented a study of three algorithms, the equalization algorithm to equalize the transmission channel with ZF and MMSE criteria, application of channel Bran A, and adaptive filtering algorithms LMS and RLS to estimate the parameters of the equalizer filter, i.e. move to the channel estimation and therefore reflect the temporal variations of the channel, and reduce the error in the transmitted signal. So far the performance of the algorithm equalizer with ZF and MMSE criteria both in the case without noise, a comparison of performance of the LMS and RLS algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive filtering second equalizer, LMS, RLS Bran A, Proakis (B) MMSE, ZF.

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Authors: J. M. Counsell, Y. Khalid, M. J. Stewart

Abstract:

Achieving nearly zero carbon heating continues to be identified by UK government analysis as an important feature of any lowest cost pathway to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Heat currently accounts for 48% of UK energy consumption and approximately one third of UK’s greenhouse gas emissions. Heat Networks are being promoted by UK investment policies as one means of supporting hybrid heat pump based solutions. To this effect the RISE (Renewable Integrated and Sustainable Electric) heating system project is investigating how an all-electric heating sourceshybrid configuration could play a key role in long-term decarbonisation of heat.  For the purposes of this study, hybrid systems are defined as systems combining the technologies of an electric driven air source heat pump, electric powered thermal storage, a thermal vessel and micro-heat network as an integrated system.  This hybrid strategy allows for the system to store up energy during periods of low electricity demand from the national grid, turning it into a dynamic supply of low cost heat which is utilized only when required. Currently a prototype of such a system is being tested in a modern house integrated with advanced controls and sensors. This paper presents the virtual performance analysis of the system and its design for a micro heat network with multiple dwelling units. The results show that the RISE system is controllable and can reduce carbon emissions whilst being competitive in running costs with a conventional gas boiler heating system.

Keywords: Gas boilers, heat pumps, hybrid heating and thermal storage, renewable integrated& sustainable electric.

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Authors: Amir Rashid, M. Saleem Khan, Freeha Zafar

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This work presents a new approach of securing a wireless network. The configuration is focused on securing & Protecting wireless network traffic for a small network such as a home or dorm room. The security Mechanism provided both authentication, allowing only known authorized users access to the wireless network, and encryption, preventing anyone from reading the wireless traffic. The mentioned solution utilizes the open source free S/WAN software which implements the Internet Protocol Security –IPSEC. In addition to wireless components, wireless NIC in PC and wireless access point needs a machine running Linux to act as security gateway. While the current configuration assumes that the wireless PC clients are running Linux, Windows XP/VISTA/7 based machines equipped with VPN software which will allow to interface with this configuration.

Keywords: Wireless network security, security network, authentication, encryption and internet protocol security.

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Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Iau-Teh Wang

Abstract:

The innovative fuzzy estimator is used to estimate the ground motion acceleration of the retaining structure in this study. The Kalman filter without the input term and the fuzzy weighting recursive least square estimator are two main portions of this method. The innovation vector can be produced by the Kalman filter, and be applied to the fuzzy weighting recursive least square estimator to estimate the acceleration input over time. The excellent performance of this estimator is demonstrated by comparing it with the use of difference weighting function, the distinct levels of the measurement noise covariance and the initial process noise covariance. The availability and the precision of the proposed method proposed in this study can be verified by comparing the actual value and the one obtained by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Earthquake, Fuzzy Estimator, Kalman Filter, Recursive Least Square Estimator.

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Authors: Andrea Gelmini

Abstract:

This paper considers the advent of 5G and the use of it in a Based Control System (BCS), posing as a basic concept the question of what the real differences and practical improvements are compared to 4G. To this purpose, a testbed hardware simulator has been designed and built where identical machines with the same sensors and management systems will communicate with different radio access network connections. This allows an objective statistical comparison of performance on the real functioning and improvement of the infrastructure with the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) connected to it.

Keywords: 4G, 5G, BCS, eSIM, IIoT, SCADA, Testbed.

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Authors: A.V.Naresh Babu, S.Sivanagaraju

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A considerable progress has been achieved in transient stability analysis (TSA) with various FACTS controllers. But, all these controllers are associated with single transmission line. This paper is intended to discuss a new approach i.e. a multi-line FACTS controller which is interline power flow controller (IPFC) for TSA of a multi-machine power system network. A mathematical model of IPFC, termed as power injection model (PIM) presented and this model is incorporated in Newton-Raphson (NR) power flow algorithm. Then, the reduced admittance matrix of a multi-machine power system network for a three phase fault without and with IPFC is obtained which is required to draw the machine swing curves. A general approach based on L-index has also been discussed to find the best location of IPFC to reduce the proximity to instability of a power system. Numerical results are carried out on two test systems namely, 6-bus and 11-bus systems. A program in MATLAB has been written to plot the variation of generator rotor angle and speed difference curves without and with IPFC for TSA and also a simple approach has been presented to evaluate critical clearing time for test systems. The results obtained without and with IPFC are compared and discussed.

Keywords: Flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS), first swing stability, interline power flow controller (IPFC), power injection model (PIM).

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Authors: Gonzalo Rubio, Eusebio Valero, Sven Lanzan

Abstract:

The design of a modern aircraft is based on three pillars: theoretical results, experimental test and computational simulations. As a results of this, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solvers are widely used in the aeronautical field. These solvers require the correct selection of many parameters in order to obtain successful results. Besides, the computational time spent in the simulation depends on the proper choice of these parameters. In this paper we create an expert system capable of making an accurate prediction of the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) solver. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to design the expert system. It is shown that the developed expert system is capable of making an accurate prediction the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a CFD solver.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Optimization

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Authors: M. Safaei, M. Seifert, K. D. Thoben

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Supply network management adopts a systematic and integrative approach to managing the operations and relationships of various parties in a supply network. The objective of the manufactures in their supply network is to reduce inventory costs and increase customer satisfaction levels. One way of doing that is to synchronize delivery performance. A supply network can be described by nodes representing the companies and the links (relationships) between these nodes. Uncertainty in delivery time depends on type of network relationship between suppliers. The problem is to understand how the individual uncertainties influence the total uncertainty of the network and identify those parts of the network, which has the highest potential for improving the total delivery time uncertainty.

Keywords: Delivery time uncertainty, Distribution function, Statistical method, Supply Network.

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Authors: K. Krishna Naik, M. N. Giri Prasad

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These days wireless local area networks has become very popular, when the initial IEEE802.11 is the standard for providing wireless connectivity to automatic machinery, equipment and stations that require rapid deployment, which may be portable, handheld or which may be mounted on moving vehicles within a local area. IEEE802.11 Wireless local area network is a sharedmedium communication network that transmits information over wireless links for all IEEE802.11 stations in its transmission range to receive. When a user is moving from one location to another, how the other user knows about the required station inside WLAN. For that we designed and implemented a system to locate a mobile user inside the wireless local area network based on RSSI with the help of four specially designed architectures. These architectures are based on statistical or we can say manual configuration of mapping and radio map of indoor and outdoor location with the help of available Sniffer based and cluster based techniques. We found a better location of a mobile user in WLAN. We tested this work in indoor and outdoor environments with different locations with the help of Pamvotis, a simulator for WLAN.

Keywords: AP, RSSI, RPM, WLAN.

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Authors: Mohamed Watfa, William Daher, Hisham Al Azar

Abstract:

The main idea behind in network aggregation is that, rather than sending individual data items from sensors to sinks, multiple data items are aggregated as they are forwarded by the sensor network. Existing sensor network data aggregation techniques assume that the nodes are preprogrammed and send data to a central sink for offline querying and analysis. This approach faces two major drawbacks. First, the system behavior is preprogrammed and cannot be modified on the fly. Second, the increased energy wastage due to the communication overhead will result in decreasing the overall system lifetime. Thus, energy conservation is of prime consideration in sensor network protocols in order to maximize the network-s operational lifetime. In this paper, we give an energy efficient approach to query processing by implementing new optimization techniques applied to in-network aggregation. We first discuss earlier approaches in sensors data management and highlight their disadvantages. We then present our approach “Energy Efficient Indexed Aggregation" (EEIA) and evaluate it through several simulations to prove its efficiency, competence and effectiveness.

Keywords: Sensor Networks, Data Base, Data Fusion, Aggregation, Indexing, Energy Efficiency

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Authors: Surbhi Gupta, Alka Handa, Parvinder S.Sandhu

Abstract:

Stegnography is a new way of secret communication the most widely used mechanism on account of its simplicity is the use of the least significant bit. We have used the least significant bit (2 LSB and 4 LSB) substitution method. Depending upon the characteristics of the individual portions of cover image we decide whether to use 2 LSB or 4 LSB thus it is an adaptive stegnography technique. We used one of the three channels to behave as indicator to indicate the presence of hidden data in other two channels. The module showed impressive results in terms of capacity to hide the data. In proposed method, instead of using RGB color space directly, YCbCr color space is used to make use of human visual system characteristic.

Keywords: Stegoimage, steganography, Pixel indicator, segmentation, YCbCr..

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Authors: Limouzade E., Joorabian M.

Abstract:

Most of the losses in a power system relate to the distribution sector which always has been considered. From the important factors which contribute to increase losses in the distribution system is the existence of radioactive flows. The most common way to compensate the radioactive power in the system is the power to use parallel capacitors. In addition to reducing the losses, the advantages of capacitor placement are the reduction of the losses in the release peak of network capacity and improving the voltage profile. The point which should be considered in capacitor placement is the optimal placement and specification of the amount of the capacitor in order to maximize the advantages of capacitor placement. In this paper, a new technique has been offered for the placement and the specification of the amount of the constant capacitors in the radius distribution network on the basis of Genetic Algorithm (GA). The existing optimal methods for capacitor placement are mostly including those which reduce the losses and voltage profile simultaneously. But the retaliation cost and load changes have not been considered as influential UN the target function .In this article, a holistic approach has been considered for the optimal response to this problem which includes all the parameters in the distribution network: The price of the phase voltage and load changes. So, a vast inquiry is required for all the possible responses. So, in this article, we use Genetic Algorithm (GA) as the most powerful method for optimal inquiry.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), capacitor placement, voltage profile, network losses, Simulating Annealing (SA), distribution network.

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Authors: Thomas Adi Purnomo Sidhi

Abstract:

Nowadays, network is an essential need in almost every part of human daily activities. People now can seamlessly connect to others through the Internet. With advanced technology, our personal data now can be more easily accessed. One of many components we are concerned for delivering the best network is a security issue. This paper is proposing a method that provides more options for security. This research aims to improve network security by focusing on the physical layer which is the first layer of the OSI model. The layer consists of the basic networking hardware transmission technologies of a network. With the use of observation method, the research produces a schematic design for enhancing the network security through the gray code converter.

Keywords: Network, network security, gray code, physical layer.

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Authors: G. Blázquez, A. Gálvez-Pérez, M. Calero, I. Iáñez-Rodríguez, M. A. Martín-Lara, A. Pérez

Abstract:

The production of olive oil is considered as one of the most important agri-food industries. However, some of the by-products generated in the process are potential pollutants and cause environmental problems. Consequently, the management of these by-products is currently considered as a challenge for the olive oil industry. In this context, several technologies have been developed and tested. In this sense, the autohydrolysis of these by-products could be considered as a promising technique. Therefore, this study focused on autohydrolysis treatments of a solid residue from the olive oil industry denominated olive cake. This one comes from the olive pomace extraction with hexane. Firstly, a water washing was carried out to eliminate the water soluble compounds. Then, an experimental design was developed for the autohydrolysis experiments carried out in the hydrothermal pressure reactor. The studied variables were temperature (30, 60 and 90 ºC) and time (30, 60, 90 min). On the other hand, aliquots of liquid obtained fractions were analysed by HPLC to determine the fructose and sucrose contents present in the liquid fraction. Finally, the obtained results of sugars contents and the yields of the different experiments were fitted to a neuro-fuzzy and to a polynomial model.

Keywords: ANFIS, olive cake, polyols, saccharides.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kengo Nagatomo, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper deals with an on-line identification method of continuous-time Hammerstein systems by using the radial basis function (RBF) networks and immune algorithm (IA). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by the RBF network. The IA is efficiently combined with the recursive least-squares (RLS) method. The objective function for the identification is regarded as the antigen. The candidates of the RBF parameters such as the centers and widths are coded into binary bit strings as the antibodies and searched by the IA. On the other hand, the candidates of both the weighting parameters of the RBF network and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are updated by the RLS method. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Continuous-time System, Hammerstein System, OnlineIdentification, Immune Algorithm, RBF network.

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Authors: Mangesh R. Phate, V. H. Tatwawadi

Abstract:

This paper is intended to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based model of material removal rate (MRR) in the turning of ferrous and nonferrous material in a Indian small-scale industry. MRR of the formulated model was proved with the testing data and artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the analysis and prediction of the relationship between inputs and output parameters during the turning of ferrous and nonferrous materials. The input parameters of this model are operator, work-piece, cutting process, cutting tool, machine and the environment.

The ANN model consists of a three layered feedforward back propagation neural network. The network is trained with pairs of independent/dependent datasets generated when machining ferrous and nonferrous material. A very good performance of the neural network, in terms of contract with experimental data, was achieved. The model may be used for the testing and forecast of the complex relationship between dependent and the independent parameters in turning operations.

Keywords: Field data based model, Artificial neural network, Simulation, Convectional Turning, Material removal rate.

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Authors: HangRok Lee, YongJe Choi, HoWon Kim

Abstract:

In recent years, it has been proposed security architecture for sensor network.[2][4]. One of these, TinySec by Chris Kalof, Naveen Sastry, David Wagner had proposed Link layer security architecture, considering some problems of sensor network. (i.e : energy, bandwidth, computation capability,etc). The TinySec employs CBC_mode of encryption and CBC-MAC for authentication based on SkipJack Block Cipher. Currently, This TinySec is incorporated in the TinyOS for sensor network security. This paper introduces TinyHash based on general hash algorithm. TinyHash is the module in order to replace parts of authentication and integrity in the TinySec. it implies that apply hash algorithm on TinySec architecture. For compatibility about TinySec, Components in TinyHash is constructed as similar structure of TinySec. And TinyHash implements the HMAC component for authentication and the Digest component for integrity of messages. Additionally, we define the some interfaces for service associated with hash algorithm.

Keywords: sensor network security, nesC, TinySec, TinyOS, Hash, HMAC, integrity

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Authors: Siliang Wang, Minghui Wang

Abstract:

This work proposes a novel market-based air traffic flow control model considering competitive airlines in air traffic network. In the flow model, an agent based framework for resources (link/time pair) pricing is described. Resource agent and auctioneer for groups of resources are also introduced to simulate the flow management in Air Traffic Control (ATC). Secondly, the distributed group pricing algorithm is introduced, which efficiently reflect the competitive nature of the airline industry. Resources in the system are grouped according to the degree of interaction, and each auctioneer adjust s the price of one group of resources respectively until the excess demand of resources becomes zero when the demand and supply of resources of the system changes. Numerical simulation results show the feasibility of solving the air traffic flow control problem using market mechanism and pricing algorithms on the air traffic network.

Keywords: Air traffic control, Nonlinear programming, Marketmechanism, Route policy.

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Authors: Eugene Grichuk, Margarita Kuzmina, Eduard Manykin

Abstract:

A network of coupled stochastic oscillators is proposed for modeling of a cluster of entangled qubits that is exploited as a computation resource in one-way quantum computation schemes. A qubit model has been designed as a stochastic oscillator formed by a pair of coupled limit cycle oscillators with chaotically modulated limit cycle radii and frequencies. The qubit simulates the behavior of electric field of polarized light beam and adequately imitates the states of two-level quantum system. A cluster of entangled qubits can be associated with a beam of polarized light, light polarization degree being directly related to cluster entanglement degree. Oscillatory network, imitating qubit cluster, is designed, and system of equations for network dynamics has been written. The constructions of one-qubit gates are suggested. Changing of cluster entanglement degree caused by measurements can be exactly calculated.

Keywords: network of stochastic oscillators, one-way quantumcomputations, a beam of polarized light.

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Authors: Mousavian, M. Moghimi Mofrad, M. H. Vakili, D. Ashouri, R. Alizadeh

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to use artificial neural networks computing technology for estimating the net heating value (NHV) of crude oil by its Properties. The approach is based on training the neural network simulator uses back-propagation as the learning algorithm for a predefined range of analytically generated well test response. The network with 8 neurons in one hidden layer was selected and prediction of this network has been good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: Neural Network, Net Heating Value, Crude Oil, Experimental, Modeling.

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Authors: Jinming Ma, Tianbing Xia, Janusz R. Getta

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of fuzzy set theory to implement of mobile advertisement anti-fraud systems. Mobile anti-fraud is a method aiming to identify mobile advertisement fraudsters. One of the main problems of mobile anti-fraud is the lack of evidence to prove a user to be a fraudster. In this paper, we implement an application by using fuzzy set theory to demonstrate how to detect cheaters. The advantage of our method is that the hardship in detecting fraudsters in small data samples has been avoided. We achieved this by giving each user a suspicious degree showing how likely the user is cheating and decide whether a group of users (like all users of a certain APP) together to be fraudsters according to the average suspicious degree. This makes the process more accurate as the data of a single user is too small to be predictable.

Keywords: Mobile internet, advertisement, anti-fraud, fuzzy set theory.

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Authors: Gyou-tae Park, Young-gyu Kim, Jeong-rock Kwon, Yongwoo Lee, Hiesik Kim

Abstract:

The gas safety management system using an intelligent gas meter we proposed is to monitor flow and pressure of gas, earthquake, temperature, smoke and leak of methane. Then our system takes safety measures to protect a serious risk by the result of an event, to communicate with a wall-pad including a gateway by zigbee network in buildings and to report the event to user by the safety management program in a server. Also, the inner cutoff valve of an intelligent gas meter is operated if any event occurred or abnormal at each sensor.

Keywords: micom gas-meter, gas safety, zigbee, ubiquitous

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Authors: Ghada Elshafei, Abdelazim Negm

Abstract:

Recently, the green architecture becomes a significant way to a sustainable future. Green building designs involve finding the balance between comfortable homebuilding and sustainable environment. Moreover, the utilization of the new technologies such as artificial intelligence techniques are used to complement current practices in creating greener structures to keep the built environment more sustainable. The most common objectives in green buildings should be designed to minimize the overall impact of the built environment that effect on ecosystems in general and in particularly human health and natural environment. This will lead to protecting occupant health, improving employee productivity, reducing pollution and sustaining the environmental. In green building design, multiple parameters which may be interrelated, contradicting, vague and of qualitative/quantitative nature are broaden to use. This paper presents a comprehensive critical state- ofart- review of current practices based on fuzzy and its combination techniques. Also, presented how green architecture/building can be improved using the technologies that been used for analysis to seek optimal green solutions strategies and models to assist in making the best possible decision out of different alternatives.

Keywords: Green architecture/building, technologies, optimization, strategies, fuzzy techniques and models.

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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