Search results for: Support Vector Regression.

Authors: Y. A. Adla, R. Soubra, M. Kasab, M. O. Diab, A. Chkeir

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Over the past several years, researchers have shown a great interest in assessing the mobility of elderly people to measure their functional status. Usually, such an assessment is done by conducting tests that require the subject to walk a certain distance, turn around, and finally sit back down. Consequently, this study aims to provide an at home monitoring system to assess the patient’s status continuously. Thus, we proposed a technique to automatically detect when a subject sits down while walking at home. In this study, we utilized a Doppler radar system to capture the motion of the subjects. More than 20 features were extracted from the radar signals out of which 11 were chosen based on their Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC > 0.75). Accordingly, the sequential floating forward selection wrapper was applied to further narrow down the final feature vector. Finally, five features were introduced to the Linear Discriminant Analysis classifier and an accuracy of 93.75% was achieved as well as a precision and recall of 95% and 90% respectively.

Keywords: Doppler radar system, stand-to-sit phase, TUG test, machine learning, classification

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Authors: Kjersti Engan, Karl Skretting, Jostein Herredsvela, Thor Ole Gulsrud

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Texture classification is an important image processing task with a broad application range. Many different techniques for texture classification have been explored. Using sparse approximation as a feature extraction method for texture classification is a relatively new approach, and Skretting et al. recently presented the Frame Texture Classification Method (FTCM), showing very good results on classical texture images. As an extension of that work the FTCM is here tested on a real world application as detection of abnormalities in mammograms. Some extensions to the original FTCM that are useful in some applications are implemented; two different smoothing techniques and a vector augmentation technique. Both detection of microcalcifications (as a primary detection technique and as a last stage of a detection scheme), and soft tissue lesions in mammograms are explored. All the results are interesting, and especially the results using FTCM on regions of interest as the last stage in a detection scheme for microcalcifications are promising.

Keywords: detection, mammogram, texture classification, dictionary learning, FTCM

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Authors: Tengku Mohd T. Sembok

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Documents retrieval in Information Retrieval Systems (IRS) is generally about understanding of information in the documents concern. The more the system able to understand the contents of documents the more effective will be the retrieval outcomes. But understanding of the contents is a very complex task. Conventional IRS apply algorithms that can only approximate the meaning of document contents through keywords approach using vector space model. Keywords may be unstemmed or stemmed. When keywords are stemmed and conflated in retrieving process, we are a step forwards in applying semantic technology in IRS. Word stemming is a process in morphological analysis under natural language processing, before syntactic and semantic analysis. We have developed algorithms for Malay and Arabic and incorporated stemming in our experimental systems in order to measure retrieval effectiveness. The results have shown that the retrieval effectiveness has increased when stemming is used in the systems.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing, Artificial Intelligence.

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Authors: Y. O’Connor, C. Heavin, S. O’ Connor, J. Gallagher, J. Wu, J. O’Donoghue

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Background: To improve the delivery of paediatric healthcare in low resource settings, Community Health Workers (CHW) have been provided with a paper-based set of protocols known as Community Case Management (CCM). Yet research has shown that CHW adherence to CCM guidelines is poor, ultimately impacting health service delivery. Digitising the CCM guidelines via mobile technology is argued in extant literature to improve CHW adherence. However, little research exist which outlines how (a) this process can be digitised and (b) adherence could be improved as a result. Aim: To explore how an electronic mobile version of CCM (eCCM) can overcome issues associated with the paper-based CCM protocol (inadequate adherence to guidelines) vis-à-vis service blueprinting. This service blueprint will outline how (a) the CCM process can be digitised using mobile Clinical Decision Support Systems software to support clinical decision-making and (b) adherence can be improved as a result. Method: Development of a single service blueprint for a standalone application which visually depicts the service processes (eCCM) when supporting the CHWs, using an application known as Supporting LIFE (SL eCCM app) as an exemplar. Results: A service blueprint is developed which illustrates how the SL eCCM app can be utilised by CHWs to assist with the delivery of healthcare services to children. Leveraging smartphone technologies can (a) provide CHWs with just-in-time data to assist with their decision making at the point-of-care and (b) improve CHW adherence to CCM guidelines. Conclusions: The development of the eCCM opens up opportunities for the CHWs to leverage the inherent benefit of mobile devices to assist them with health service delivery in rural settings. To ensure that benefits are achieved, it is imperative to comprehend the functionality and form of the eCCM service process. By creating such a service blueprint for an eCCM approach, CHWs are provided with a clear picture regarding the role of the eCCM solution, often resulting in buy-in from the end-users.

Keywords: Adherence, community health workers, developing countries, mobile clinical decision support systems, CDSS, service blueprint.

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Authors: Paolo Pilloni, Fabrizio Mulas, Salvatore Carta

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Nowadays, several research studies point up that an active lifestyle is essential for physical and mental health benefits. Mobile phones have greatly influenced people’s habits and attitudes also in the way they exercise. Our research work is mainly focused on investigating how to exploit mobile technologies to favour people’s exertion experience. To this end, we developed an exertion framework users can exploit through a real world mobile application, called EverywhereSport Run (EWRun), designed to act as a virtual personal trainer to support runners during their trainings. In this work, inspired by both previous findings in the field of interaction design for people with visual impairments, feedback gathered from real users of our framework, and positive results obtained from two experimentations, we present some new interaction facilities we designed to enhance the interaction experience during a training. The positive obtained results helped us to derive some interaction design recommendations we believe will be a valid support for designers of future mobile systems conceived to be used in circumstances where there are limited possibilities of interaction.

Keywords: Human Computer Interaction, Interaction Design Guidelines, Persuasive Mobile Technologies for Sport and Health.

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Authors: Isao Tomita

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Electrical conduction in a quasi-one-dimensional polycrystalline metallic ring with a long electron phase coherence length realized at low temperature is investigated. In this situation, the wave nature of electrons is important in the ring, where the electrical current I can be induced by a vector potential that arises from a static magnetic field applied perpendicularly to the ring’s area. It is shown that if the average grain size of the polycrystalline ring becomes large (or comparable to the Fermi wavelength), the electrical current I increases to ~I0, where I0 is a current in a disorder-free ring. The cause of this increasing effect is examined, and this takes place if the electron localization length in the polycrystalline potential increases with increasing grain size, which gives rise to coherent connection of tails of a localized electron wave function in the ring and thus provides highly coherent electrical conduction.

Keywords: Electrical Conduction, Electron Phase Coherence, Polycrystalline Metal, Magnetic Field.

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Authors: Sahbi Farhani

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This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.

Keywords: External debt, military spending, ARDL approach, structural breaks, India.

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Authors: Juárez-Luna Gelacio, Ayala Gustavo, Retama-Velasco Jaime

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This paper shows the advantages of the material failure process simulation by improve finite elements with embedded discontinuities, using a new definition of traction vector, dependent on the discontinuity length and the angle. Particularly, two families of this kind of elements are compared: kinematically optimal symmetric and statically and kinematically optimal non-symmetric. The constitutive model to describe the behavior of the material in the symmetric formulation is a traction-displacement jump relationship equipped with softening after reaching the failure surface.

To show the validity of this symmetric formulation, representative numerical examples illustrating the performance of the proposed formulation are presented. It is shown that the non-symmetric family may over or underestimate the energy required to create a discontinuity, as this effect is related with the total length of the discontinuity, fact that is not noticed when the discontinuity path is a straight line.

Keywords: Variational formulation, strong discontinuity, embedded discontinuities, strain localization.

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Authors: Nickolay Jelev, Andy Keane, Carren Holden, András Sóbester

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In aircraft design, the jump from the conceptual to preliminary design stage introduces a level of complexity which cannot be realistically handled by a single optimiser, be that a human (chief engineer) or an algorithm. The design process is often partitioned along disciplinary lines, with each discipline given a level of autonomy. This introduces a number of challenges including, but not limited to: coupling of design variables; coordinating disciplinary teams; handling of large amounts of analysis data; reaching an acceptable design within time constraints. A number of classical Multidisciplinary Design Optimisation (MDO) architectures exist in academia specifically designed to address these challenges. Their limited use in the industrial aircraft design process has inspired the authors of this paper to develop an alternative strategy based on well established ideas from Decision Support Systems. The proposed rule based architecture sacrifices possibly elusive guarantees of convergence for an attractive return in simplicity. The method is demonstrated on analytical and aircraft design test cases and its performance is compared to a number of classical distributed MDO architectures.

Keywords: Multidisciplinary design optimisation, rule based architecture, aircraft design, decision support system.

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Authors: Benedek Kovacs, Janos Toth

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Solutions are proposed for the central problem of estimating the reaction rate coefficients in homogeneous kinetics. The first is based upon the fact that the right hand side of a kinetic differential equation is linear in the rate constants, whereas the second one uses the technique of neural networks. This second one is discussed deeply and its advantages, disadvantages and conditions of applicability are analyzed in the mirror of the first one. Numerical analysis carried out on practical models using simulated data, and our programs written in Mathematica.

Keywords: Neural networks, parameter estimation, linear regression, kinetic models, reaction rate coefficients.

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Authors: Pavel Chmelar, Martin Dobrovolny

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Laser projection or laser footprint detection is today widely used in many fields of robotics, measurement or electronics. The system accuracy strictly depends on precise laser footprint detection on target objects. This article deals with the laser line detection based on the RGB segmentation and the component labeling. As a measurement device was used the developed optical rangefinder. The optical rangefinder is equipped with vertical sweeping of the laser beam and high quality camera. This system was developed mainly for automatic exploration and mapping of unknown spaces. In the first section is presented a new detection algorithm. In the second section are presented measurements results. The measurements were performed in variable light conditions in interiors. The last part of the article present achieved results and their differences between day and night measurements.

Keywords: Automatic mapping, color segmentation, component labeling, distance measurement, laser line detection, vector map.

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Authors: Chryssa Thermolia, Ekaterini S. Bei, Stelios Sotiriadis, Kostas Stravoskoufos, Euripides G.M. Petrakis

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Moving into a new era of healthcare, new tools and devices are developed to extend and improve health services, such as remote patient monitoring and risk prevention. In this concept, Internet of Things (IoT) and Cloud Computing present great advantages by providing remote and efficient services, as well as cooperation between patients, clinicians, researchers and other health professionals. This paper focuses on patients suffering from bipolar disorder, a brain disorder that belongs to a group of conditions called affective disorders, which is characterized by great mood swings. We exploit the advantages of Semantic Web and Cloud Technologies to develop a patient monitoring system to support clinicians. Based on intelligently filtering of evidence-knowledge and individual-specific information we aim to provide treatment notifications and recommended function tests at appropriate times or concluding into alerts for serious mood changes and patient’s nonresponse to treatment. We propose an architecture as the back-end part of a cloud platform for IoT, intertwining intelligence devices with patients’ daily routine and clinicians’ support.

Keywords: Bipolar disorder, intelligent systems patient monitoring, semantic web technologies, IoT.

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Authors: Ganesan V.

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Application of Expert System in the area of agriculture would take the form of Integrated Crop Management decision aids and would encompass water management, fertilizer management, crop protection systems and identification of implements. In order to remain competitive, the modern farmer often relies on agricultural specialists and advisors to provide information for decision-making. An expert system normally composed of a knowledge base (information, heuristics, etc.), inference engine (analyzes knowledge base), and end user interface (accepting inputs, generating outputs). Software named 'CROP-9-DSS' incorporating all modern features like, graphics, photos, video clippings etc. has been developed. This package will aid as a decision support system for identification of pest and diseases with control measures, fertilizer recommendation system, water management system and identification of farm implements for leading crops of Kerala (India) namely Coconut, Rice, Cashew, Pepper, Banana, four vegetables like Amaranthus, Bhindi, Brinjal and Cucurbits. 'CROP-9-DSS' will act as an expert system to agricultural officers, scientists in the field of agriculture and extension workers for decision-making and help them in suggesting suitable recommendations.

Keywords: Diagnostic, inference engine, knowledge base and user interface.

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Authors: Abdel Ilah Alshabtat, Liang Dong

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In this paper, we proposed a new routing protocol for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that equipped with directional antenna. We named this protocol Directional Optimized Link State Routing Protocol (DOLSR). This protocol is based on the well known protocol that is called Optimized Link State Routing Protocol (OLSR). We focused in our protocol on the multipoint relay (MPR) concept which is the most important feature of this protocol. We developed a heuristic that allows DOLSR protocol to minimize the number of the multipoint relays. With this new protocol the number of overhead packets will be reduced and the End-to-End delay of the network will also be minimized. We showed through simulation that our protocol outperformed Optimized Link State Routing Protocol, Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocol and Ad- Hoc On demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol in reducing the End-to-End delay and enhancing the overall throughput. Our evaluation of the previous protocols was based on the OPNET network simulation tool.

Keywords: Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks, Ad-Hoc RoutingProtocols, Optimized link State Routing Protocol, Unmanned AerialVehicles, Directional Antenna.

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Authors: Fatimah Alsaleh, Glenda Anthony

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The practicum experience is a critical component of any initial teacher education (ITE) course. As well as providing a near authentic setting for pre-service teachers (PSTs) to practice in, it also plays a key role in shaping their perceptions and sense of preparedness. Nevertheless, merely including a practicum period as a compulsory part of ITE may not in itself be enough to induce feelings of preparedness and efficacy; the quality of the classroom experience must also be considered. Drawing on findings of a larger study of secondary and intermediate level mathematics PSTs’ sense of preparedness to teach, this paper examines the influence of the practicum experience in particular. The study sample comprised female mathematics PSTs who had almost completed their teaching methods course in their fourth year of ITE across 16 teacher education programs in Saudi Arabia. The impact of the practicum experience on PSTs’ sense of preparedness was investigated via a mixed-methods approach combining a survey (N = 105) and in-depth interviews with survey volunteers (N = 16). Statistical analysis in SPSS was used to explore the quantitative data, and thematic analysis was applied to the qualitative interviews data. The results revealed that the PSTs perceived the practicum experience to have played a dominant role in shaping their feelings of preparedness and efficacy. However, despite the generally positive influence of practicum, the PSTs also reported numerous challenges that lessened their feelings of preparedness. These challenges were often related to the classroom environment and the school culture. For example, about half of the PSTs indicated that the practicum schools did not have the resources available or the support necessary to help them learn the work of teaching. In particular, the PSTs expressed concerns about translating the theoretical knowledge learned at the university into practice in authentic classrooms. These challenges engendered PSTs feeling less prepared and suggest that more support from both the university and the school is needed to help PSTs develop a stronger sense of preparedness. The area in which PSTs felt least prepared was that of classroom and behavior management, although the results also indicated that PSTs only felt a moderate level of general teaching efficacy and were less confident about how to support students as learners. Again, feelings of lower efficacy were related to the dissonance between the theory presented at university and real-world classroom practice. In order to close this gap between theory and practice, PSTs expressed the wish to have more time in the practicum, and more accountability for support from school-based mentors. In highlighting the challenges of the practicum in shaping PSTs’ sense of preparedness and efficacy, the study argues that better communication between the ITE providers and the practicum schools is necessary in order to maximize the benefit of the practicum experience.

Keywords: Mathematics, practicum experience, pre-service teachers, sense of preparedness.

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Authors: Meghna Maiti, Utpal Roy

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In India, till today, malaria is considered to be one of the significant infectious diseases. Most of the cases regional geographical factors are the principal elements to let the places a unique identity. The incidence and intensity of infectious diseases are quite common and affect different places differently across the nation. The present study aims to identify spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots of malaria incidence and their seasonal variation during the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20 in the state of West Bengal in India. As malaria is a vector-borne disease, numbers of positive test results are to be reported by the laboratories to the Department of Health, West Bengal (through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme). Data on block-wise monthly malaria positive cases are collected from Health Management Information System (HMIS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Moran’s I statistic is performed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence. The spatial statistical analysis mainly Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) cluster and Local Geary Cluster are applied to find the spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots and seasonal variability of malaria incidence over the three periods. The result indicates that the spatial distribution of malaria is clustered during each of the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20. The analysis shows that in all the cases, high-high clusters are primarily concentrated in the western (Purulia, Paschim Medinipur districts), central (Maldah, Murshidabad districts) and the northern parts (Jalpaiguri, Kochbihar districts) and low-low clusters are found in the lower Gangetic plain (central-south) mainly and northern parts of West Bengal during the stipulated period. Apart from this seasonal variability inter-year variation is also visible. The results from different methods of this study indicate significant variation in the spatial distribution of malaria incidence in West Bengal and high incidence clusters are primarily persistently concentrated over the western part during 2012-2020 along with a strong seasonal pattern with a peak in rainy and autumn. By applying the different techniques in identifying the different degrees of incidence zones of malaria across West Bengal, some specific pockets or malaria hotspots are marked and identified where the incidence rates are quite harmonious over the different periods. From this analysis, it is clear that malaria is not a disease that is distributed uniformly across the state; some specific pockets are more prone to be affected in particular seasons of each year. Disease ecology and spatial patterns must be the factors in explaining the real factors for the higher incidence of this issue within those affected districts. The further study mainly by applying empirical approach is needed for discerning the strong relationship between communicable disease and other associated affecting factors.

Keywords: Malaria, infectious diseases, spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation, LISA.

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Authors: Mansour N. Jadid

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This paper describes the implementation of a GIS to provide decision support for successfully monitoring the movements and storage of materials, hence ensuring that finished products travel from the point of origin to the destination construction site through the supply-chain management (SCM) system. This system ensures the efficient operation of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors by determining the shortest path from the point of origin to the final destination to reduce construction costs, minimize time, and enhance productivity. These systems are essential to the construction industry because they reduce costs and save time, thereby improve productivity and effectiveness. This study describes a typical supply-chain model and a geographical information system (GIS)-based SCM that focuses on implementing an electronic document management system, which maps the application framework to integrate geodetic support with the supply-chain system. This process provides guidance for locating the nearest suppliers to fill the information needs of project members in different locations. Moreover, this study illustrates the use of a GIS-based SCM as a collaborative tool in innovative methods for implementing Web mapping services, as well as aspects of their integration by generating an interactive GIS for the construction industry platform.

Keywords: Construction, coordinate, engineering, GIS, management, map.

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Authors: Ben Hamed M., Sbita L

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This paper presents a new method for the implementation of a direct rotor flux control (DRFOC) of induction motor (IM) drives. It is based on the rotor flux components regulation. The d and q axis rotor flux components feed proportional integral (PI) controllers. The outputs of which are the target stator voltages (vdsref and vqsref). While, the synchronous speed is depicted at the output of rotor speed controller. In order to accomplish variable speed operation, conventional PI like controller is commonly used. These controllers provide limited good performances over a wide range of operations even under ideal field oriented conditions. An alternate approach is to use the so called fuzzy logic controller. The overall investigated system is implemented using dSpace system based on digital signal processor (DSP). Simulation and experimental results have been presented for a one kw IM drives to confirm the validity of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: DRFOC, fuzzy logic, variable speed drives, control, IM and real time.

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Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

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Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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Authors: V. Chitra, R. S. Prabhakar

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Because of the low maintenance and robustness induction motors have many applications in the industries. The speed control of induction motor is more important to achieve maximum torque and efficiency. Various speed control techniques like, Direct Torque Control, Sensorless Vector Control and Field Oriented Control are discussed in this paper. Soft computing technique – Fuzzy logic is applied in this paper for the speed control of induction motor to achieve maximum torque with minimum loss. The fuzzy logic controller is implemented using the Field Oriented Control technique as it provides better control of motor torque with high dynamic performance. The motor model is designed and membership functions are chosen according to the parameters of the motor model. The simulated design is tested using various tool boxes in MATLAB. The result concludes that the efficiency and reliability of the proposed speed controller is good.

Keywords: Induction motor, Field Oriented Control, Fuzzy logic controller, Maximum torque, Membership function.

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Authors: Ramón Cruzat, Sergio F. Ochoa, Ignacio Casas, Luis A. Guerrero, José Bravo

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Patients under health treatments that involve long  stays at a hospital or health center (e.g. cancer, organ transplants and  severe burns), tend to get bored or depressed because of the lack of  social interaction with family and friends. Such a situation also  affects the evolution and effectiveness of their treatments. In many  cases, the solution to this problem involves extra challenges, since  many patients need to rest quietly (or remain in bed) to their being  contagious. Considering the weak health condition in which usually  are these kinds, keeping them motivated and quiet represents an  important challenge for nurses and caregivers. This article presents a  mobile ubiquitous game called MagicRace, which allows hospitalized  kinds to interact socially with one another without putting to risk  their sensitive health conditions. The game does not require a  communication infrastructure at the hospital, but instead, it uses a  mobile ad hoc network composed of the handheld devices used by  the kids to play. The usability and performance of this application  was tested in two different sessions. The preliminary results show  that users experienced positive feelings from this experience.

 

Keywords: Ubiquitous game, children's emotional support, social isolation, mobile collaborative interactions.

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Authors: Hassan Berbia, Faissal Elbouanani, Rahal Romadi, Mostafa Belkasmi

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This paper introduces two decoders for binary linear codes based on Metaheuristics. The first one uses a genetic algorithm and the second is based on a combination genetic algorithm with a feed forward neural network. The decoder based on the genetic algorithms (DAG) applied to BCH and convolutional codes give good performances compared to Chase-2 and Viterbi algorithm respectively and reach the performances of the OSD-3 for some Residue Quadratic (RQ) codes. This algorithm is less complex for linear block codes of large block length; furthermore their performances can be improved by tuning the decoder-s parameters, in particular the number of individuals by population and the number of generations. In the second algorithm, the search space, in contrast to DAG which was limited to the code word space, now covers the whole binary vector space. It tries to elude a great number of coding operations by using a neural network. This reduces greatly the complexity of the decoder while maintaining comparable performances.

Keywords: Block code, decoding, methaheuristic, genetic algorithm, neural network

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Authors: Zoheir Tir, Rachid Abdessemed

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This paper presents a new control scheme to control a brushless doubly fed induction generator (BDFIG) using back-to-back PWM converters for wind power generation. The proposed control scheme is a New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC). The goal of BDFIG control is to achieve a similar dynamic performance to the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), exploiting the well-known induction machine vector control philosophy. The performance of NSTFPDC controller has been investigated and compared with the two controllers, called Proportional–Integral (PI) and PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller (PD-like FLC) based BDFIG. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and the robustness of the NSTFPDC controller.

Keywords: Brushless Doubly Fed Induction Generator (BDFIG), PI controller, PD-like Fuzzy Logic controller, New Self-Tuning Fuzzy Proportional-Derivative Controller (NSTFPDC), Scaling factor, back-to-back PWM converters, wind energy system.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Sedighe Arabameri, Nasser Salmasi

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In this researcha particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposedfor no-wait flowshopsequence dependent setuptime scheduling problem with weighted earliness-tardiness penalties as the criterion (
|, |Σ   " ).The smallestposition value (SPV) rule is applied to convert the continuous value of position vector of particles in PSO to job permutations.A timing algorithm is generated to find the optimal schedule and calculate the objective function value of a given sequence in PSO algorithm. Twodifferent neighborhood structures are applied to improve the solution quality of PSO algorithm.The first one is based on variable neighborhood search (VNS) and the second one is a simple one with invariable structure. In order to compare the performance of two neighborhood structures, random test problems are generated and solved by both neighborhood approaches.Computational results show that the VNS algorithmhas better performance than the other one especially for the large sized problems.

Keywords: minimization of summation of weighed earliness and tardiness, no-wait flowshop scheduling, particle swarm optimization, sequence dependent setup times

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Authors: Ion Baş, Claudiu Zoicaş, Angela Ioniţâ

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In most of the cases, natural disasters lead to the necessity of evacuating people. The quality of evacuation management is dramatically improved by the use of information provided by decision support systems, which become indispensable in case of large scale evacuation operations. This paper presents a best practice case study. In November 2007, officers from the Emergency Situations Inspectorate “Crisana" of Bihor County from Romania participated to a cross-border evacuation exercise, when 700 people have been evacuated from Netherlands to Belgium. One of the main objectives of the exercise was the test of four different decision support systems. Afterwards, based on that experience, software system called TEVAC (Trans Border Evacuation) has been developed “in house" by the experts of this institution. This original software system was successfully tested in September 2008, during the deployment of the international exercise EU-HUROMEX 2008, the scenario involving real evacuation of 200 persons from Hungary to Romania. Based on the lessons learned and results, starting from April 2009, the TEVAC software is used by all Emergency Situations Inspectorates all over Romania.

Keywords: Emergency evacuation, Searching Features, TEVAC(Trans Border Evacuation) software system, User Interface Design.

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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Authors: G.–A. Constantin, G. Voicu, E.–M. Stefan, P. Tudor, G. Paraschiv, M.–G. Munteanu

Abstract:

In the activity of handling and transport of food products, the products may be subjected to mechanical stresses that may lead to their deterioration by deformation, breaking, or crushing. This is the case for biscuits, regardless of their type (gluten-free or sugary), the addition of ingredients or flour from which they are made. However, gluten-free biscuits have a higher mechanical resistance to breakage or crushing compared to easily shattered sugar biscuits (especially those for children). The paper presents the results of the experimental evaluation of the texture for four varieties of commercial biscuits, using the penetrometer equipped with needle cone at five different additional weights on the cone-rod. The assortments of biscuits tested in the laboratory were Petit Beurre, Picnic, and Maia (all three manufactured by RoStar, Romania) and Sultani diet biscuits, manufactured by Eti Burcak Sultani (Turkey, in packs of 138 g). For the four varieties of biscuits and the five additional weights (50, 77, 100, 150 and 177 g), the experimental data obtained were subjected to regression analysis in the MS Office Excel program, using Velon's relationship (h = a∙ln(t) + b). The regression curves were analysed comparatively in order to identify possible differences and to highlight the variation of the penetration depth h, in relation to the time t. Based on the penetration depth between two-time intervals (every 5 seconds), the curves of variation of the penetration speed in relation to time were then drawn. It was found that Velon's law verifies the experimental data for all assortments of biscuits and for all five additional weights. The correlation coefficient R2 had in most of the analysed cases values over 0.850. The values recorded for the penetration depth were framed, in general, within 45-55 p.u. (penetrometric units) at an additional mass of 50 g, respectively between 155-168 p.u., at an additional mass of 177 g, at Petit Beurre biscuits. For Sultani diet biscuits, the values of the penetration depth were within the limits of 32-35 p.u., at an additional weight of 50 g and between 80-114 p.u., at an additional weight of 177g. The data presented in the paper can be used by both operators on the manufacturing technology flow, as well as by the traders of these food products, in order to establish the most efficient parametric of the working regimes (when packaging and handling).

Keywords: Biscuits resistance/texture, penetration depth, penetration velocity, sharp pin penetrometer.

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Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

Abstract:

This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: Financial development, energy consumption, Panel VECM, FATF countries.

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Authors: Ngo Thanh Xuan, Mai Thi Hang, Vu Nguyen Thanh

Abstract:

A. niger XP isolated from Vietnam produces very low amount of acidic phytase with optimal pH at 2.5 and 5.5. The phytase production of this strain was successfully improved through gene cloning and expression. A 1.4 - kb DNA fragment containing the coding region of the phyA gene was amplified by PCR and inserted into the expression vector pPICZαA with a signal peptide α- factor, under the control of AOX1 promoter. The recombined plasmid was transformed into the host strain P. pastoris KM71H and X33 by electroporation. Both host strains could efficiently express and secret phytase. The multicopy strains were screened for over expression of phytase. All the selected multicopy strains of P. pastoris X33 were examined for phytase activity, the maximum phytase yield of 1329 IU/ml was obtained after 4 days of incubation in medium BMM. The recombinant protein with MW of 97.4 KW showed to be the only one protein secreted in the culture broth. Multicopy transformant P. pastoris X33 supposed to be potential candidate for producing the commercial preparation of phytase.

Keywords: Aspergillus niger XP, cloning, over expression, Pichia pastoris, phyA , phytase.

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