Search results for: Statistical forecasting

Authors: Amir Gandomkar

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Global warming and continental changes have been one of the people's issues in the recent years and its consequences have appeared in the most parts of the earth planet or will appear in the future. Temperature and Precipitation are two main parameters in climatology. Any changes in these two parameters in this region cause widespread changes in the ecosystem and its natural and humanistic structure. One of the important consequences of this procedure is change in surface and underground water resources. Zayanderood watershed basin which is the main central river in Iran has faced water shortage in the recent years and also it has resulted in drought in Gavkhuni swamp and the river itself. Managers and experts in provinces which are the Zayanderood water consumers believe that global warming; raining decrease and continental changes are the main reason of water decrease. By statistical investigation of annual Precipitation and 46 years temperature of internal and external areas of Zayanderood watershed basin's stations and by using Kendal-man method, Precipitation and temperature procedure changes have been analyzed in this basin. According to obtained results, there was not any noticeable decrease or increase procedure in Precipitation and annual temperature in the basin during this period. However, regarding to Precipitation, a noticeable decrease and increase have been observed in small part of western and some parts of eastern and southern basin, respectively. Furthermore, the investigation of annual temperature procedure has shown that a noticeable increase has been observed in some parts of western and eastern basin, and also a noticeable increasing procedure of temperature in the central parts of metropolitan Esfahan can be observed.

Keywords: Zayanderood, Man_Kendal, Climate Change

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Maria Venus G. Solares

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The ancient Filipinos had their own spelling or alphabet that differed from the modern Roman alphabet brought by the Spaniards. It consists of seventeen letters, three vowels, and fourteen consonants and is called Baybayin. The Baybayin, a traditional writing system, is composed of characters that represent syllables. A proposal in the Philippine Congress to declare Baybayin as the national writing system inspired this study. The main objective of this study was to develop and assess the proposed module for enhancing the reading and writing skills in Baybayin of the students. The aim was to ensure the acceptability of the Baybayin using the proposed module and to meet the needs of students in developing their ability to read and write Baybayin through the module. A quasi-experimental research design was used in this study.  The data were collected through the initial and final analysis of the students of Adamson University's ABM 1102 using convenient sampling techniques. Based on statistical analysis of data using weighted mean, standard deviation, and paired t-tests, the proposed module helped improve the students' literacy skills, and the response exercises in the proposed module changed the acceptability of the Baybayin in their minds. The study showed that there was an important difference in the scores of students before and after the use of the module. The students' response to the assessment of their reading and writing skills on Baybayin was highly acceptable. This study will help to develop the reading and writing skills of the students in Baybayin and to teach the Baybayin in response to the revival of a part of Philippine culture that has been long forgotten.

Keywords: Baybayin, proposed module, ancient writing, acceptability.

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Authors: Mahdi Karimi

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One of the most basic standards of fair trial is the right to defense, hire an attorney and its presence in the hearing stages. On the one hand, based on the reason and justice, as the legal issues, particularly criminal affairs, become complicated, the accused must benefit from an attorney in the court in order to defend itself which requires legal knowledge. On the other hand, as the judicial system has jurists such as investigation judges at its disposal, the accused must enjoy the same right to defend itself and reject allegations so that the balance is maintained between the litigating parties based on the principle of "equality of arms". The right to adequate time and facilities for defense is cited among the principles and rights relevant to the proceedings in international regulations such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The innovations made in the Code of Criminal Procedure in 2013 guaranteed the presence of the accused’s attorney in the proceedings. The present study aims at assessing the result of the aforementioned guarantee in practice and made attempts to investigate the effect of the presence of accused’s attorney on reducing the punishment by asking the question and addressing the statistical population of this study including 48 judges of lower courts and courts of appeal. It seems that in despite of guarantees provided in the new Code of Criminal Procedure, Iran's penal system, does not tolerate the presence of an attorney in practice.

Keywords: Defense attorney, equality of arms, fair trial, reducing the penalty, right to defense.

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Authors: Mohammad B. HabibiNajafi, Saeideh Sadat Fatemizadeh, Maryam Tavakoli

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In recent years, the consumption of functional foods, including foods containing probiotic bacteria, has come to notice. Milk proteins have been identified as a source of angiotensin-I-converting enzyme )ACE( inhibitory peptides and are currently the best-known class of bioactive peptides. In this study, the effects of adding prebiotic ingredients (inulin and wheat fiber) and fat percentage (0%, 2% and 3.5%) in yogurt containing probiotic Lactobacillus casei on physicochemical properties, degree of proteolysis, antioxidant and ACE-inhibitory activity within 21 days of storage at 5 ± 1 °C were evaluated. The results of statistical analysis showed that the application of prebiotic compounds led to a significant increase in water holding capacity, proteolysis and ACE-inhibitory of samples. The degree of proteolysis in yogurt increases as storage time elapses (P < 0.05) but when proteolysis exceeds a certain threshold, this trend begins to decline. Also, during storage time, water holding capacity reduced initially but increased thereafter. Moreover, based on our findings, the survival of Lactobacillus casei in samples treated with inulin and wheat fiber increased significantly in comparison to the control sample (P < 0.05) whereas the effect of fat percentage on the survival of probiotic bacteria was not significant (P = 0.095). Furthermore, the effect of prebiotic ingredients and the presence of probiotic cultures on the antioxidant activity of samples was significant (P < 0.05).

Keywords: Yogurt, proteolysis, ACE-inhibitory, antioxidant activity.

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Authors: Yunseok Noh, Chang-Uk Kwak, Sun-Joong Kim, Seong-Bae Park

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Scripts are one of the basic text resources to understand broadcasting contents. Topic modeling is the method to get the summary of the broadcasting contents from its scripts. Generally, scripts represent contents descriptively with directions and speeches, and provide scene segments that can be seen as semantic units. Therefore, a script can be topic modeled by treating a scene segment as a document. Because scene segments consist of speeches mainly, however, relatively small co-occurrences among words in the scene segments are observed. This causes inevitably the bad quality of topics by statistical learning method. To tackle this problem, we propose a method to improve topic quality with additional word co-occurrence information obtained using scene similarities. The main idea of improving topic quality is that the information that two or more texts are topically related can be useful to learn high quality of topics. In addition, more accurate topical representations lead to get information more accurate whether two texts are related or not. In this paper, we regard two scene segments are related if their topical similarity is high enough. We also consider that words are co-occurred if they are in topically related scene segments together. By iteratively inferring topics and determining semantically neighborhood scene segments, we draw a topic space represents broadcasting contents well. In the experiments, we showed the proposed method generates a higher quality of topics from Korean drama scripts than the baselines.

Keywords: Broadcasting contents, generalized P´olya urn model, scripts, text similarity, topic model.

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Authors: Ebrahim Panahpour, Ali Gholami, Amir Hossein Davami

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During this day a considerable amount of Leachate is produced with high amounts of organic material and nutrients needed plants. This study has done in order to scrutinize the effect of Leachate compost on the pH, EC and organic matter percentage in the form of statistical Factorial plan through randomizing block design with three main and two minor treatments and also three replications during three six month periods. Major treatments include N: Irrigation with the region-s well water as a control, I: Frequent irrigation with well water and Leachate, C: Mixing Leachate and water well (25 percent leachate + 75 percent ordinary well water) and secondary treatments, include DI: surface drip irrigation and SDI: sub surface drip irrigation. Results of this study indicated significant differences between treatments and also there were mixing up with the control treatment in the reduction of pH, increasing soluble salts and also increasing the organic matter percentage. This increase is proportional to the amount of added Leachate and in the treatment also proportional to higher mixture of frequent treatment. Therefore, since creating an acidic pH increases the ability to absorb some nutrient elements such as phosphorus, iron, zinc, copper and manganese are increased and the other hand, organic materials also improve many physical and chemical properties of soil are used in Leachate trash Consider health issues as refined in the green belts around cities as a liquid fertilizer recommended.

Keywords: Leachate, compost, drip irrigation, liquid fertilizer, soil reaction.

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Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman

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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.

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Authors: Mohamed .S .Alazhari, Milad. M. Al Shebani

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Numerous concrete structures projects are currently running in Libya as part of a US$50 billion government funding. The quality of concrete used in 20 different construction projects were assessed based mainly on the concrete compressive strength achieved. The projects are scattered all over the country and are at various levels of completeness. For most of these projects, the concrete compressive strength was obtained from test results of a 150mm standard cube mold. Statistical analysis of collected concrete compressive strengths reveals that the data in general followed a normal distribution pattern. The study covers comparison and assessment of concrete quality aspects such as: quality control, strength range, data standard deviation, data scatter, and ratio of minimum strength to design strength. Site quality control for these projects ranged from very good to poor according to ACI214 criteria [1]. The ranges (Rg) of the strength (max. strength – min. strength) divided by average strength are from (34% to 160%). Data scatter is measured as the range (Rg) divided by standard deviation (
) and is found to be (1.82 to 11.04), indicating that the range is ±3σ. International construction companies working in Libya follow different assessment criteria for concrete compressive strength in lieu of national unified procedure. The study reveals that assessments of concrete quality conducted by these construction companies usually meet their adopted (internal) standards, but sometimes fail to meet internationally known standard requirements. The assessment of concrete presented in this paper is based on ACI, British standards and proposed Libyan concrete strength assessment criteria.

Keywords: Acceptance criteria, Concrete, Compressive strength, quality control

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Authors: Alexander Kaplunovsky, Vladimir Khailenko, Alexander Bolshoy, Shara Atambayeva, AnatoliyIvashchenko

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Eukaryotic protein-coding genes are interrupted by spliceosomal introns, which are removed from the RNA transcripts before translation into a protein. The exon-intron structures of different eukaryotic species are quite different from each other, and the evolution of such structures raises many questions. We try to address some of these questions using statistical analysis of whole genomes. We go through all the protein-coding genes in a genome and study correlations between the net length of all the exons in a gene, the number of the exons, and the average length of an exon. We also take average values of these features for each chromosome and study correlations between those averages on the chromosomal level. Our data show universal features of exon-intron structures common to animals, plants, and protists (specifically, Arabidopsis thaliana, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster, Cryptococcus neoformans, Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Oryza sativa, and Plasmodium falciparum). We have verified linear correlation between the number of exons in a gene and the length of a protein coded by the gene, while the protein length increases in proportion to the number of exons. On the other hand, the average length of an exon always decreases with the number of exons. Finally, chromosome clustering based on average chromosome properties and parameters of linear regression between the number of exons in a gene and the net length of those exons demonstrates that these average chromosome properties are genome-specific features.

Keywords: Comparative genomics, exon-intron structure, eukaryotic clustering, linear regression.

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Authors: T. Malmir, U. Eicker

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Landfilling of organic waste is still the predominant waste management method in the USA and Canada. Strategic plans for waste diversion from landfills are needed to increase material recovery and energy generation from waste. In this paper, we carried out a statistical survey on waste flow in the two cities New York and Montréal and estimated the energy recovery potential for each case. Data collection and analysis of the organic waste (food waste, yard waste, etc.), paper and cardboard, metal, glass, plastic, carton, textile, electronic products and other materials were done based on the reports published by the Department of Sanitation in New York and Service de l'Environnement in Montréal. In order to calculate the gas generation potential of organic waste, Buswell equation was used in which the molar mass of the elements was calculated based on their atomic weight and the amount of organic waste in New York and Montréal. Also, the higher and lower calorific value of the organic waste (solid base) and biogas (gas base) were calculated. According to the results, only 19% (598 kt) and 45% (415 kt) of New York and Montréal waste were diverted from landfills in 2017, respectively. The biogas generation potential of the generated food waste and yard waste amounted to 631 million m³ in New York and 173 million m³ in Montréal. The higher and lower calorific value of food waste were 3482 and 2792 GWh in New York and 441 and 354 GWh in Montréal, respectively. In case of yard waste, they were 816 and 681 GWh in New York and 636 and 531 GWh in Montréal, respectively. Considering the higher calorific value, this amount would mean a contribution of around 2.5% energy in these cities.

Keywords: Energy recovery, organic waste, urban energy modelling with INSEL, waste flow.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: S. Visetpotjanakit, N. Nakkaew

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Determination of ⁹⁰Sr in environmental samples has been widely developed with several radioanlytical methods and radiation measurement techniques since ⁹⁰Sr is one of the most hazardous radionuclides produced from nuclear reactors. Liquid extraction technique using di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (HDEHP) to separate and purify ⁹⁰Y and Cherenkov counting using liquid scintillation counter to determine ⁹⁰Y in secular equilibrium to ⁹⁰Sr was developed and performed at our institute, the Office of Atoms for Peace. The approach is inexpensive, non-laborious, and fast to analyse ⁹⁰Sr in environmental samples. To validate our analytical performance for the accurate and precise criteria, determination of ⁹⁰Sr using the IAEA-TEL-2016-04 ALMERA proficiency test samples were performed for statistical evaluation. The experiment used two spiked tap water samples and one naturally contaminated spruce needles sample from Austria collected shortly after the Chernobyl accident. Results showed that all three analyses were successfully passed in terms of both accuracy and precision criteria, obtaining “Accepted” statuses. The two water samples obtained the measured results of 15.54 Bq/kg and 19.76 Bq/kg, which had relative bias 5.68% and -3.63% for the Maximum Acceptable Relative Bias (MARB) 15% and 20%, respectively. And the spruce needles sample obtained the measured results of 21.04 Bq/kg, which had relative bias 23.78% for the MARB 30%. These results confirm our analytical performance of ⁹⁰Sr determination in water and spruce needles samples using the same developed method.

Keywords: ALMERA proficiency test, Cherenkov counting, determination of 90Sr, environmental samples.

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Authors: Hatim Laalej, Salvador Sumohano-Verdeja, Thomas McLeay

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Monitoring of tool wear in milling operations is essential for achieving the desired dimensional accuracy and surface finish of a machined workpiece. Although there are numerous statistical models and artificial intelligence techniques available for monitoring the wear of cutting tools, these techniques cannot pin point which cutting edge of the tool, or which insert in the case of indexable tooling, is worn or broken. Currently, the task of monitoring the wear on the tool cutting edges is carried out by the operator who performs a manual inspection, causing undesirable stoppages of machine tools and consequently resulting in costs incurred from lost productivity. The present study is concerned with the development of a flute tracking system to segment signals related to each physical flute of a cutter with three flutes used in an end milling operation. The purpose of the system is to monitor the cutting condition for individual flutes separately in order to determine their progressive wear rates and to predict imminent tool failure. The results of this study clearly show that signals associated with each flute can be effectively segmented using the proposed flute tracking system. Furthermore, the results illustrate that by segmenting the sensor signal by flutes it is possible to investigate the wear in each physical cutting edge of the cutting tool. These findings are significant in that they facilitate the online condition monitoring of a cutting tool for each specific flute without the need for operators/engineers to perform manual inspections of the tool.

Keywords: Tool condition monitoring, tool wear prediction, milling operation, flute tracking.

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Authors: Alaa A. Shamaun Al-Abboodi, Yunis A. A. Bapeer

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400 one-day-old male broiler chicks (Ross-308) randomly divided to 2 main groups, 1st main group (GA) was feeding basal diet with medium chain fatty acid (MCFA) at rate of 0.15% and divided to four subgroups, 3 subgroups vaccinated with different routes with Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) and non-vaccinated group. The 2nd main group (GB) feeding basal diet without MCFA and divided the same as 1st main group. The parameters used in this study included: ND antibody titers at 1, 10, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age and values of CD4 and CD8 at 1, 20, 30 and 42 days of age. This experiment detected increase in ND antibodies titers in (G1, G2, G3) groups were fed on basal diet MCFA comparing to groups were fed without adding MCFA (G5, G6, G7) and control groups (G4, G8). The results of cellular immune response (CD4 and CD8) T-cells in broiler chicks indicated that there was obviously significant relationship between dietary Fatty Acid (FA) versus the diet without FA on the level of CD4 parameter, for the entire experimental period. The effect of different ages was statistically significant in creating different values of CD4 level, whereas the CD4 level decreases markedly with age. However, analyzing the data of different vaccination methods, oculonasal method of vaccination led to the highest value of CD4 compared with the oral, S/C and control groups. There were statistical differences in CD8 values due to supplementation of FA versus the basal diet and due to the effect of different age periods. As for the age effect, the CD8 value at 20 days of age was significantly higher than at 42 and 30 days.

Keywords: Broiler, CD4 and CD8, fatty acids, Newcastle disease.

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Authors: Hatem Radwan Ibrahim Radwan

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Leadership is crucial for hotel survival and success. It enables hotels to develop and compete effectively. This research intends to explore the implementation of six leadership styles by frontline hotel managers in four star hotels in Cairo and assess its impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment. The leadership patterns considered in this study includes: democratic, autocratic, laissez-faire, transformational, transactional, and ethical leaderships. Questionnaire was used as a research method to gather data. A structured survey was established and distributed on employees in Cairo’s four star hotels. A total of 284 questionnaire forms were returned and usable for statistical analysis. The results of this study identified that transactional and autocratic leadership were the prevalent styles used in four star hotels in Cairo. Two leadership styles proved to have significant high correlation and impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment including: transformational and democratic leadership. Besides, laissez-faire leadership was found had a smaller effect on employees’ creativity and ethical leadership had a lesser influence on employees’ commitment. The autocratic leadership had strong negative correlation and significant impact on both dependent variables. This research concludes that frontline hotel managers should adopt transformational and/or democratic leadership style in managing their subordinates.

Keywords: Creativity, hotels, leadership styles, organizational commitment.

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Authors: Danielle Morin, Jennifer D. E. Thomas, Raafat G. Saade, Daniela Petrachi

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Over the past few decades, more and more students choose to enroll in online classes instead of attending in-class lectures. While past studies consider students’ attitudes towards online education and how their grades differed from in-class lectures, the profile of the online student remains a blur. To shed light on this, an online survey was administered to about 1,500 students enrolled in an undergraduate Fundamental Business Technology course at a Canadian University. The survey was comprised of questions on students’ demographics, their reasons for choosing online courses, their expectations towards the course, the communication channels they use for the course with fellow students and with the instructor. This paper focused on the research question: Do the perspectives of online students concerning the online experience, in general, and in the course in particular, differ according to age profile? After several statistical analyses, it was found that age does have an impact on the reasons why students select online classes instead of in-class. For example, it was found that the perception that an online course might be easier than in-class delivery was a more important reason for younger students than for older ones. Similarly, the influence of friends is much more important for younger students, than for older students. Similar results were found when analyzing students’ expectation about the online course and their use of communication tools. Overall, the age profile of online users had an impact on reasons, expectations and means of communication in an undergraduate Fundamental Business Technology course. It is left to be seen if this holds true across other courses, graduate and undergraduate.

Keywords: Communication channels, fundamentals of business technology, online classes, pedagogy, user age profile, user perspectives.

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Authors: Benjamin Osae Agyei, Hypolite Bayor

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This present experiment was carried out during the 2012 cropping season, at the Farming for the Future Experimental Field of the University for Development Studies, Nyankpala Campus in the Northern Region of Ghana. The objective of the experiment was to determine the carrot growth and yield responses to poultry manure and N.P.K (15:15:15). Six treatments (Control (no amendment), 20 t/ha poultry manure (PM), 40 t/ha PM, 70 t/ha PM, 35 t/ha PM + 0.11t/ha N.P.K and 0.23 t/ha N.P.K) with three replications for each were laid in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD). Data were collected on plant height, number of leaves per plant, canopy spread, root diameter, root weight, and root length. Microsoft Excel and Genstat Statistical Package (9^th edition) were used for the data analysis. The treatment means were compared by using Least Significant Difference at 10%. Generally, the results showed that there were no significant differences (P>0.1) among the treatments with respect to number of leaves per plant, root diameter, root weight, and root length. However, significant differences occurred among plant heights and canopy spreads. Plant height treated with 40 t/ha PM at the fourth week after planting and canopy spread at eight weeks after planting and ten weeks after planting by 70 t/ha PM and 20 t/ha PM respectively showed significant difference (P<0.1). The study recommended that any of the amended treatments can be applied at their recommended rates to plots for carrot production, since there were no significant differences among the treatments.

Keywords: Poultry manure, N.P.K., soil amendment, growth, yield, carrot.

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Authors: E.Sasikumar, T.Viruthagiri

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Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) of sugarcane bagasse by cellulase and Pachysolen tannophilus MTCC *1077 were investigated in the present study. Important process variables for ethanol production form pretreated bagasse were optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD) experiments. A 23 five level CCD experiments with central and axial points was used to develop a statistical model for the optimization of process variables such as incubation temperature (25–45°) X1, pH (5.0–7.0) X2 and fermentation time (24–120 h) X3. Data obtained from RSM on ethanol production were subjected to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analyzed using a second order polynomial equation and contour plots were used to study the interactions among three relevant variables of the fermentation process. The fermentation experiments were carried out using an online monitored modular fermenter 2L capacity. The processing parameters setup for reaching a maximum response for ethanol production was obtained when applying the optimum values for temperature (32°C), pH (5.6) and fermentation time (110 h). Maximum ethanol concentration (3.36 g/l) was obtained from 50 g/l pretreated sugarcane bagasse at the optimized process conditions in aerobic batch fermentation. Kinetic models such as Monod, Modified Logistic model, Modified Logistic incorporated Leudeking – Piret model and Modified Logistic incorporated Modified Leudeking – Piret model have been evaluated and the constants were predicted.

Keywords: Sugarcane bagasse, ethanol, optimization, Pachysolen tannophilus.

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

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Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km², is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R², which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period between 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT, Water Yield, Watershed level.

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Authors: Mohammad A. Khasawneh

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Asphalt concrete pavements gradually lose their skid resistance causing safety problems especially under wet conditions and high driving speeds. In order to enact the actual field polishing and wearing process of asphalt pavement surfaces in a laboratory setting, several laboratory-scale accelerated polishing devices were developed by different agencies. To mimic the actual process, friction and texture measuring devices are needed to quantify surface deterioration at different polishing intervals that reflect different stages of the pavement life. The test could still be considered lengthy and to some extent labor-intensive. Therefore, there is a need to come up with another method that can assist in investigating the bituminous pavement surface characteristics in a practical and time-efficient test procedure.

The purpose of this paper is to utilize a well-developed image analysis technique to characterize asphalt pavement surfaces without the need to use conventional friction and texture measuring devices in an attempt to shorten and simplify the polishing procedure in the lab.

Promising findings showed the possibility of using image analysis in lieu of the labor-sensitive-variable-in-nature friction and texture measurements. It was found that the exposed aggregate surface area of asphalt specimens made from limestone and gravel aggregates produced solid evidence of the validity of this method in describing asphalt pavement surfaces. Image analysis results correlated well with the British Pendulum Numbers (BPN), Polish Values (PV) and Mean Texture Depth (MTD) values.

Keywords: Friction, Image Analysis, Polishing, Statistical Analysis, Texture.

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Authors: Bahaa Khalil, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, André St-Hilaire

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The world economic crises and budget constraints have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured. Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables, the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable for inferring statements about the probability distribution.

Keywords: Record extension, record augmentation, monitoringnetworks, water quality indicators.

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Authors: M. J. Pourvaghar, M. E. Bahram, M. Sayyah, Sh. Khoshemehry

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Adiponectin is a cytokine secreted by the adipose tissue that functions as an anti-inflammatory, antiathrogenic and anti-diabetic substance. Its density is inversely correlated with body mass index. The purpose of this research was to examine the effect of 12 weeks of high intensity interval training (HIIT) with the level of serum adiponectin and some selected adiposity markers in overweight and fat college students. This was a clinical research in which 24 students with BMI between 25 kg/m² to 30 kg/m². The sample was purposefully selected and then randomly assigned into two groups of experimental (age =22.7±1.5 yr.; weight = 85.8±3.18 kg and height =178.7±3.29 cm) and control (age =23.1±1.1 yr.; weight = 79.1±2.4 kg and height =181.3±4.6 cm), respectively. The experimental group participated in an aerobic exercise program for 12 weeks, three sessions per weeks at a high intensity between 85% to 95% of maximum heart rate (considering the over load principle). Prior and after the termination of exercise protocol, the level of serum adiponectin, BMI, waist to hip ratio, and body fat percentages were calculated. The data were analyzed by using SPSS: PC 16.0 and statistical procedure such as ANCOVA, was used. The results indicated that 12 weeks of intensive interval training led to the increase of serum adiponectin level and decrease of body weight, body fat percent, body mass index and waist to hip ratio (P < 0.05). Based on the results of this research, it may be concluded that participation in intensive interval training for 12 weeks is a non-invasive treatment to increase the adiponectin level while decreasing some of the anthropometric indices associated with obesity or being overweight.

Keywords: Adiponectin, interval, intensive, overweight, training.

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Authors: J. Leige Lopes, L. Aparecida Bastos, R. Monteiro da Silva

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The objective of this paper is to study the work of children and adolescents and the vicious circle of poverty from the perspective of Guinar Myrdal’s Theory of Circular Cumulative Causation. The objective is to show that if a person starts working in the juvenile phase of life they will be classified as poor or extremely poor when they are adult, which can to be observed in the case of Brazil, more specifically in the north and northeast. To do this, the methodology used was statistical and econometric analysis by applying a probit model. The main results show that: if people reside in the northeastern region of Brazil, and if they have a low educational level and if they start their professional life before the age 18, they will increase the likelihood that they will be poor or extremely poor. There is a consensus in the literature that one of the causes of the intergenerational transmission of poverty is related to child labor, this because when one starts their professional life while still in the toddler or adolescence stages of life, they end up sacrificing their studies. Because of their low level of education, children or adolescents are forced to perform low-paid functions and abandon school, becoming in the future, people who will be classified as poor or extremely poor. As a result of poverty, parents may be forced to send their children out to work when they are young, so that in the future they will also become poor adults, a process that is characterized as the "vicious circle of poverty."

Keywords: Children, adolescents, Gunnar Myrdal, poverty, vicious circle.

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Authors: N. Nor Azman, M. F. Kamarudin, S. I. Ong, N. Maaulot

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PERMATApintar^® National Gifted Center is, to the author’s best of knowledge, the first center in Malaysia that provides a platform for Malaysian talented students with high ability in thinking. This center has built a teaching and learning biology curriculum that suits the ability of these gifted students. The level of PERMATApintar^® biology curriculum is basically higher than the national biology curriculum. Here, the foundation students are exposed to the PERMATApintar^® biology curriculum at the age of as early as 11 years old. This center practices a 4-time-a-year examination system to monitor the academic performances of the students. Generally, most of the time, male students show no or low interest towards biology subject compared to female students. This study is to investigate the association of students’ gender and their academic performances in biology examination. A total of 39 students’ scores in twelve sets of biology examinations in 3 years have been collected and analyzed by using the statistical analysis. Based on the analysis, there are no significant differences between male and female students against the biology academic performances with a significant level of p = 0.05. This indicates that gender is not associated with the scores of biology examinations among the students. Another result showed that the average score for male studenta was higher than the female students. Future research can be done by comparing the biology academic achievement in Malaysian National Examination (Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia, SPM) between the Foundation 3 students (Grade 9) and Level 2 students (Grade 11) with similar PERMATApintar^® biology curriculum.

Keywords: Academic performances, biology, gender differences, gifted students.

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Authors: Khairul Bariah Sulaiman, Tajul Aris Yang

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Fermentation is well known as an essential process to develop chocolate flavor in dried cocoa beans. Besides developing the precursor of cocoa flavor, it also induces the color changes in the beans. The fermentation process is influenced by various factors such as planting material, preconditioning of cocoa pod and fermentation technique. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate color of Malaysian cocoa beans and how the duration of pods storage and fermentation technique using shallow box will effect on its color characteristics. There are two factors being studied i.e. duration of cocoa pod storage (0, 2, 4 and 6 days) and duration of cocoa fermentation (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days). The experiment is arranged in 4 x 6 factorial designs with 24 treatments and arrangement is in a Completely Randomised Design (CRD). The produced beans are inspected for color changes under artificial light during cut test and divided into four groups of color namely fully brown, purple brown, fully purple and slaty. Cut tests indicated that cocoa beans which are directly dried without undergone fermentation has the highest slaty percentage. However, application of pods storage before fermentation process is found to decrease the slaty percentage. In contrast, the percentages of fully brown beans start to dominate after two days of fermentation, especially from four and six days of pods storage batch. Whereas, almost all batches of cocoa beans have a percentage of fully purple less than 20%. Interestingly, the percentage of purple brown beans are scattered in the entire beans batch regardless any specific trend. Meanwhile, statistical analysis using General Linear Model showed that the pods storage has a significant effect on the color characteristic of the Malaysian dried beans compared to fermentation duration.

Keywords: Cocoa beans, color, fermentation, shallow box.

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Authors: H. Apaza, L. Chévez, H. Loro

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Plastic and microplastic pollution in human food chain is a big problem for human health that requires more elaborated techniques that can identify their presences in different kinds of food. Hyperspectral imaging technique is an optical technique than can detect the presence of different elements in an image and can be used to detect plastics and microplastics in a scene. To do this statistical techniques are required that need to be evaluated and compared in order to find the more efficient ones. In this work, two problems related to the presence of plastics are addressed, the first is to detect and identify pieces of plastic immersed in almond seeds, and the second problem is to detect and quantify microplastic in almond flour. To do this we make use of the analysis hyperspectral images taken in the range of 900 to 1700 nm using 4 unmixing techniques of hyperspectral imaging which are: least squares unmixing (LSU), non-negatively constrained least squares unmixing (NCLSU), fully constrained least squares unmixing (FCLSU), and scaled constrained least squares unmixing (SCLSU). NCLSU, FCLSU, SCLSU techniques manage to find the region where the plastic is found and also manage to quantify the amount of microplastic contained in the almond flour. The SCLSU technique estimated a 13.03% abundance of microplastics and 86.97% of almond flour compared to 16.66% of microplastics and 83.33% abundance of almond flour prepared for the experiment. Results show the feasibility of applying near-infrared hyperspectral image analysis for the detection of plastic contaminants in food.

Keywords: Food, plastic, microplastic, NIR hyperspectral imaging, unmixing.

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Authors: Maryam Nazari, Majid Karandish, Alihossein Saberi

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Obesity as a global health challenge motivates pharmaceutical industries to produce anti-obesity drugs. However, effectiveness of these agents is remained unclear. Because of popularity of dietary supplements, the aim of this study was tp investigate the effects of Conjugated Linoleic Acid (CLA) and L-carnitine (LC) on serum glucose, triglyceride, cholesterol and weight changes in diet induced obese rats. 48 male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups: Normal fat diet (n=8), and High fat diet (HFD) (n=32). After eight weeks, the second group which was maintained on HFD until the end of study, was subdivided into four categories: a) 500 mg Corn Oil (as control group), b) 500 mg CLA, c) 200 mg LC, d) 500 mg CLA+ 200 mg LC.All doses are planned per kg body weights, which were administered by oral gavage for four weeks. Body weights were measured and recorded weekly by means of a digital scale. At the end of the study, blood samples were collected for biochemical markers measurement. SPSS Version 16 was used for statistical analysis. At the end of 8^th week, a significant difference in weight was observed between HFD and NFD group. After 12 weeks, LC significantly reduced weight gain by 4.2%. Trend of weight gain in CLA and CLA+LC groups was insignificantly decelerated. CLA+LC reduced triglyceride level significantly, but just CLA had significant influence on total cholesterol and insignificant decreasing effect on FBS. Our results showed that an obesogenic diet in a relative short time led to obesity and dyslipidemia which can be modified by LC and CLA to some extent.

Keywords: Conjugated linoleic acid, high fat diet, L-carnitine, obesity.

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Authors: Francis Chinweuba Eboh, Peter Ahlström, Tobias Richards

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Entropy, as an outcome of the second law of thermodynamics, measures the level of irreversibility associated with any process. The identification and reduction of irreversibility in the energy conversion process helps to improve the efficiency of the system. The entropy of pure substances known as absolute entropy is determined at an absolute reference point and is useful in the thermodynamic analysis of chemical reactions; however, municipal solid waste (MSW) is a structurally complicated material with unknown absolute entropy. In this work, an empirical model to calculate the absolute entropy of MSW based on the content of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulphur, and chlorine on a dry ash free basis (daf) is presented. The proposed model was derived from 117 relevant organic substances which represent the main constituents in MSW with known standard entropies using statistical analysis. The substances were divided into different waste fractions; namely, food, wood/paper, textiles/rubber and plastics waste and the standard entropies of each waste fraction and for the complete mixture were calculated. The correlation of the standard entropy of the complete waste mixture derived was found to be s^o_msw= 0.0101C + 0.0630H + 0.0106O + 0.0108N + 0.0155S + 0.0084Cl (kJ.K^-1.kg) and the present correlation can be used for estimating the absolute entropy of MSW by using the elemental compositions of the fuel within the range of 10.3% ≤ C ≤ 95.1%, 0.0% ≤ H ≤ 14.3%, 0.0% ≤ O ≤ 71.1%, 0.0 ≤ N ≤ 66.7%, 0.0% ≤ S ≤ 42.1%, 0.0% ≤ Cl ≤ 89.7%. The model is also applicable for the efficient modelling of a combustion system in a waste-to-energy plant.

Keywords: Absolute entropy, irreversibility, municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy.

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Authors: Ho-Dae Chong, Jong-Kil Kim

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Collaborative research has become more prevalent and important across disciplines because it stimulates innovation and interaction between scholars. Seeing as existing studies relatively disregarded the institutional conditions triggering collaborative research, this work aims to analyze the changing trend in collaborative work patterns among Korean social scientists. The focus of this research is the performance of social scientists who received research grants through the government’s Social Science Korea (SSK) program. Using quantitative statistical methods, collaborative research patterns in a total of 2,354 papers published under the umbrella of the SSK program in peer-reviewed scholarly journals from 2013 to 2016 were examined to identify changing trends and triggering factors in collaborative research. A notable finding is that the share of collaborative research is overwhelmingly higher than that of individual research. In particular, levels of collaborative research surpassed 70%, increasing much quicker compared to other research done in the social sciences. Additionally, the most common composition of collaborative research was for two or three researchers to conduct joint research as coauthors, and this proportion has also increased steadily. Finally, a strong association between international journals and co-authorship patterns was found for the papers published by SSK program researchers from 2013 to 2016. The SSK program can be seen as the driving force behind collaboration between social scientists. Its emphasis on competition through a merit-based financial support system along with a rigorous evaluation process seems to have influenced researchers to cooperate with those who have similar research interests.

Keywords: Co-authorship, collaboration, competition, cooperation, Social Science Korea, policy.

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