Search results for: empirical validation

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Bahaa Khalil, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, André St-Hilaire

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The world economic crises and budget constraints have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured. Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables, the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable for inferring statements about the probability distribution.

Keywords: Record extension, record augmentation, monitoringnetworks, water quality indicators.

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

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In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: GPS based household surveys, transportation infrastructure, origin-destination trip matrices, traffic forecasts, transportation demand modeling, travel behavior patterns.

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Authors: Claude Alavoine, Ferkan Kaplanseren

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Negotiation is a specific form of interaction based on communication in which the parties enter into deliberately, each with clear but different interests or goals and a mutual dependency towards a decision due to be taken at the end of the confrontation. Consequently, negotiation is a complex activity involving many different disciplines from the strategic aspects and the decision making process to the evaluation of alternatives or outcomes and the exchange of information. While gender differences can be considered as one of the most researched topic within negotiation studies, empirical works and theory present many conflicting evidences and results about the role of gender in the process or the outcome. Furthermore, little interest has been shown over gender differences in the definition of what is negotiation, its essence or fundamental elements. Or, as differences exist in practices, it might be essential to study if the starting point of these discrepancies does not come from different considerations about what is negotiation and what will encourage the participants in their strategic decisions. Some recent and promising experiments made with diverse groups show that male and female participants in a common and shared situation barely consider the same way the concepts of power, trust or stakes which are largely considered as the usual driving forces of any negotiation. Furthermore, results from Human Resource self-assessment tests display and confirm considerable differences between individuals regarding essential behavioral dimensions like capacity to improvise and to achieve, aptitude to conciliate or to compete and orientation towards power and group domination which are also part of negotiation skills. Our intention in this paper is to confront these dimensions with negotiation’s usual driving forces in order to build up new paths for further research.

Keywords: Gender, negotiation, personality, power, stakes, trust.

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Authors: Wei Sun, Yan Dong

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There is an increasing interest in introducing computational thinking at an early age. Computational thinking, like mathematical thinking, engineering thinking, and scientific thinking, is a kind of analytical thinking. Learning computational thinking skills is not only to improve technological literacy, but also allows learners to equip with practicable skills such as problem-solving skills. As people realize the importance of computational thinking, the field of educational technology faces a problem: how to choose appropriate tools and activities to help students develop computational thinking skills. Robots are gradually becoming a popular teaching tool, as robots provide a tangible way for young children to access to technology, and controlling a robot through programming offers them opportunities to engage in developing computational thinking. This study explores whether the introduction of flowcharts into the robotics programming courses can help children convert natural language into a programming language more easily, and then to better cultivate their computational thinking skills. An experimental study was adopted with a sample of children ages six to seven (N = 16) participated, and a one-meter-tall humanoid robot was used as the teaching tool. Results show that children can master basic programming concepts through robotic courses. Children's computational thinking has been significantly improved. Besides, results suggest that flowcharts do have an impact on young children’s computational thinking skills development, but it only has a significant effect on the "sequencing" and "correspondence" skills. Overall, the study demonstrates that the humanoid robot and flowcharts have qualities that foster young children to learn programming and develop computational thinking skills.

Keywords: Robotics, computational thinking, programming, young children, flowcharts.

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Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

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Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

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Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.

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Authors: Francis Chinweuba Eboh, Peter Ahlström, Tobias Richards

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Entropy, as an outcome of the second law of thermodynamics, measures the level of irreversibility associated with any process. The identification and reduction of irreversibility in the energy conversion process helps to improve the efficiency of the system. The entropy of pure substances known as absolute entropy is determined at an absolute reference point and is useful in the thermodynamic analysis of chemical reactions; however, municipal solid waste (MSW) is a structurally complicated material with unknown absolute entropy. In this work, an empirical model to calculate the absolute entropy of MSW based on the content of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulphur, and chlorine on a dry ash free basis (daf) is presented. The proposed model was derived from 117 relevant organic substances which represent the main constituents in MSW with known standard entropies using statistical analysis. The substances were divided into different waste fractions; namely, food, wood/paper, textiles/rubber and plastics waste and the standard entropies of each waste fraction and for the complete mixture were calculated. The correlation of the standard entropy of the complete waste mixture derived was found to be s^o_msw= 0.0101C + 0.0630H + 0.0106O + 0.0108N + 0.0155S + 0.0084Cl (kJ.K^-1.kg) and the present correlation can be used for estimating the absolute entropy of MSW by using the elemental compositions of the fuel within the range of 10.3% ≤ C ≤ 95.1%, 0.0% ≤ H ≤ 14.3%, 0.0% ≤ O ≤ 71.1%, 0.0 ≤ N ≤ 66.7%, 0.0% ≤ S ≤ 42.1%, 0.0% ≤ Cl ≤ 89.7%. The model is also applicable for the efficient modelling of a combustion system in a waste-to-energy plant.

Keywords: Absolute entropy, irreversibility, municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy.

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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Authors: F. F. Howard, I. Yakubu, C. B. Boye, J. S. Y. Kuma

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Natural and human activities, such as mining operations, expose the natural soil to adverse environmental conditions, leading to contamination of soil, groundwater, and surface water, which has negative effects on humans, flora, and fauna. Bare or partly exposed soil is most liable to fluvial erosion. This paper enumerates various methods used to identify, map, and model fluvial erosion in a mining environment. Classical, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and GIS methods have been reviewed. One of the many classical methods used to estimate river erosion is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. The RUSLE model is easy to use. Its reliance on empirical relationships that may not always be applicable to specific circumstances or locations is a flaw. Other classical models for estimating fluvial erosion are the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). These models offer a more complete understanding of the underlying physical processes and encompass a wider range of situations. Although more difficult to utilise, they depend on the availability and dependability of input data for correctness. AI can help deal with multivariate and complex difficulties and predict soil loss with higher accuracy than traditional methods, and also be used to build unique models for identifying degraded areas. AI techniques have become popular as an alternative predictor for degraded environments. However, this research proposed a hybrid of classical, AI, and GIS methods for efficient and effective modelling of fluvial erosion.

Keywords: Fluvial erosion, classical methods, Artificial Intelligence, Geographic Information System.

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Authors: J. Schmidt, O. Kornadt

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The major part of light weight timber constructions consists of insulation. Mineral wool is the most commonly used insulation due to its cost efficiency and easy handling. The fiber orientation and porosity of this insulation material enables flowthrough. The air flow resistance is low. If leakage occurs in the insulated bay section, the convective flow may cause energy losses and infiltration of the exterior wall with moisture and particles. In particular the infiltrated moisture may lead to thermal bridges and growth of health endangering mould and mildew. In order to prevent this problem, different numerical calculation models have been developed. All models developed so far have a potential for completion. The implementation of the flow-through properties of mineral wool insulation may help to improve the existing models. Assuming that the real pressure difference between interior and exterior surface is larger than the prescribed pressure difference in the standard test procedure for mineral wool ISO 9053 / EN 29053, measurements were performed using the measurement setup for research on convective moisture transfer “MSRCMT". These measurements show, that structural inhomogeneities of mineral wool effect the permeability only at higher pressure differences, as applied in MSRCMT. Additional microscopic investigations show, that the location of a leak within the construction has a crucial influence on the air flow-through and the infiltration rate. The results clearly indicate that the empirical values for the acoustic resistance of mineral wool should not be used for the calculation of convective transfer mechanisms.

Keywords: convection, convective transfer, infiltration, mineralwool, permeability, resistance, leakage

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Authors: Angela–M. Paleologou, Aphrodite Dellaporta

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Erroneous computer entry problems [here: 'e'errors] in hospital labs threaten the patients-–health carers- relationship, undermining the health system credibility. Are e-errors random, and do lab professionals make them accidentally, or may they be traced through meaningful determinants? Theories on internal causality of mistakes compel to seek specific causal ascriptions of hospital lab eerrors instead of accepting some inescapability. Undeniably, 'To Err is Human'. But in view of rapid global health organizational changes, e-errors are too expensive to lack in-depth considerations. Yet, that efunction might supposedly be entrenched in the health carers- job description remains under dispute – at least for Hellenic labs, where e-use falls behind generalized(able) appreciation and application. In this study: i) an empirical basis of a truly high annual cost of e-errors at about €498,000.00 per rural Hellenic hospital was established, hence interest in exploring the issue was sufficiently substantiated; ii) a sample of 270 lab-expert nurses, technicians and doctors were assessed on several personality, burnout and e-error measures, and iii) the hypothesis that the Hardiness vs Alienation personality construct disposition explains resistance vs proclivity to e-errors was tested and verified: Hardiness operates as a resilience source in the encounter of high pressures experienced in the hospital lab, whereas its 'opposite', i.e., Alienation, functions as a predictor, not only of making e-errors, but also of leading to burn-out. Implications for apt interventions are discussed.

Keywords: Hospital lab, personality hardiness/alienation, e-errors' cost, burnout.

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Authors: J. Dutta, Narendranath S.

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In this research article a comprehensive investigation has been carried out to determine the effect of thermal cycle on temperature dependent process parameters developed during gas tungsten arc (GTA) welding of high carbon (AISI 1090) steel butt joints. An experiment based thermal analysis has been performed to obtain the thermal history. We have focused on different thermophysical properties such as thermal conductivity, heat transfer coefficient and cooling rate. Angular torch model has been utilized to find out the surface heat flux and its variation along the fusion zone as well as along the longitudinal direction from fusion boundary. After welding and formation of weld pool, heat transfer coefficient varies rapidly in the vicinity of molten weld bead and heat affected zone. To evaluate the heat transfer coefficient near the fusion line and near the rear end of the plate (low temperature region), established correlation has been implemented and has been compared with empirical correlation which is noted as coupled convective and radiation heat transfer coefficient. Change in thermal conductivity has been visualized by analytical model of moving point heat source. Rate of cooling has been estimated by using 2-dimensional mathematical expression of cooling rate and it has shown good agreement with experimental temperature cycle. Thermophysical properties have been varied randomly within 0 -10s time span.

Keywords: Thermal history, Gas tungsten arc welding, Butt joint, High carbon steel.

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Authors: Mi Sook Lee

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The number of the companies accepting RFID in Korea has been increased continuously due to the domestic development of information technology. The acceptance of RFID by companies in Korea enabled them to do business with many global enterprises in a much more efficient and effective way. According to a survey[33, p76], many companies in Korea have used RFID for inventory or distribution manages. But, the use of RFID in the companies in Korea is in the early stages and its potential value hasn-t fully been realized yet. At this time, it would be very important to investigate the factors that affect RFID acceptance. For this study, many previous studies were referenced and some RFID experts were interviewed. Through the pilot test, four factors were selected - Security Trust, Employee Knowledge, Partner Influence, Service Provider Trust - affecting RFID acceptance and an extended technology acceptance model(e-TAM) was presented with those factors. The proposed model was empirically tested using data collected from employees in companies or public enterprises. In order to analyze some relationships between exogenous variables and four variables in TAM, structural equation modeling(SEM) was developed and SPSS12.0 and AMOS 7.0 were used for analyses. The results are summarized as follows: 1) security trust perceived by employees positively influences on perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use; 2) employee-s knowledge on RFID positively influences on only perceived ease of use; 3) a partner-s influence for RFID acceptance positively influences on only perceived usefulness; 4) service provider trust very positively influences on perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use 5) the relationships between TAM variables are the same as the previous studies.

Keywords: RFID, TAM, Security Trust, Employee Knowledge, Partner Influence, Service Provider Trust.

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Authors: Ek-Uma Imkome, Jintana Yunibhand, Waraporn Chaiyawat

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Background: Persons with schizophrenia patient and misusing methamphetamines suffering from social dysfunction that impact on their quality of life. Knowledge of factors related to social dysfunction will guide the effective intervention. Objectives: To determine the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of an acerbate Psychotics’ Symptoms, Social Support, Stressful life events, Medication use self-efficacy impact on social dysfunction in Thai schizophrenic patient and methamphetamine misuse. Methods: Data were collected from schizophrenic and methamphetamine misuse patient by self report. A linear structural relationship was used to test the hypothesized path model. Results: The hypothesized model was found to fit the empirical data and explained 54% of the variance of the psychotic symptoms (X² = 114.35, df = 92, p-value = 0.05, X² /df = 1.24, GFI = 0.96, AGFI = 0.92, CFI = 1.00, NFI = 0.99, NNFI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.02). The highest total effect on social dysfunction was psychotic symptoms (0.67, p<0.05). Medication use self-efficacy had a direct effect on psychotic symptoms (-0.25, p<0.01), and social support had direct effect on medication use self efficacy (0.36, p <0.01). Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms and stressful life events were the significance factors that influenced direct on social dysfunctioning. Therefore, interventions that are designed to manage these factors are crucial in order to enhance social functioning in this population.

Keywords: Psychotic symptoms, methamphetamine, schizophrenia, stressful life events, social dysfunction, social support, medication use self-efficacy.

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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Authors: Jie Zhang, Qianyu Guo, Tieyi Zhang, Zhiyong Feng, Xiaohong Li

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The widespread popularity of mobile devices and the development of artificial intelligence (AI) have led to the widespread adoption of deep learning (DL) in Android apps. Compared with traditional Android apps (traditional apps), deep learning based Android apps (DL-based apps) need to use more third-party application programming interfaces (APIs) to complete complex DL inference tasks. However, existing methods (e.g., FlowDroid) for detecting sensitive information leakage in Android apps cannot be directly used to detect DL-based apps as they are difficult to detect third-party APIs. To solve this problem, we design DLtrace, a new static information flow analysis tool that can effectively recognize third-party APIs. With our proposed trace and detection algorithms, DLtrace can also efficiently detect privacy leaks caused by sensitive APIs in DL-based apps. Additionally, we propose two formal definitions to deal with the common polymorphism and anonymous inner-class problems in the Android static analyzer. Using DLtrace, we summarize the non-sequential characteristics of DL inference tasks in DL-based apps and the specific functionalities provided by DL models for such apps. We conduct an empirical assessment with DLtrace on 208 popular DL-based apps in the wild and found that 26.0% of the apps suffered from sensitive information leakage. Furthermore, DLtrace outperformed FlowDroid in detecting and identifying third-party APIs. The experimental results demonstrate that DLtrace expands FlowDroid in understanding DL-based apps and detecting security issues therein.

Keywords: Mobile computing, deep learning apps, sensitive information, static analysis.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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Authors: Ahmed Amin Mousa, Huda Mazeed, Eman Saad

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The study aims to identify the extent of effectiveness of the artistic formation program using some types of pastes to reduce the hyperactivity of the kindergarten children with learning difficulties. The researchers have discussed the aforesaid topic, where the research sample included 120 children of ages between 5 to 6 years, from five schools for special needs, learning disability section, Cairo Governorate. The study used the quasi-empirical method, which depends on designing one group using the pre& post application measurements for the group to validate both, hypothesis and effectiveness of the program. The variables of the study were specified as follows; artistic formation program using Paper Mache as an independent variable, and its effect on the skills of kindergarten child with learning disabilities, as a dependent variable. The researchers utilized the application of an artistic formation program consisting of artistic and musical skills for kindergarten children with learning disabilities. The tools of the study, designed by the researchers, included: observation card used for recording the culling paper using pulp molding skills for kindergarten children with learning difficulties during practicing the artistic formation activity. Additionally, there was a program utilizing Artistic and Musical Activities for kindergarten children with learning disabilities to acquire educational concepts. The study was composed of 20 lessons for fine art activities and 20 lessons for musical activities, with obligation of giving the musical lesson with art lesson in one session to cast on the kindergarten child some educational concepts.

Keywords: musical activities, developing skills, early childhood, educational concepts, learning difficulties

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Authors: S. Zeković, M. Vujošević, T. Maričić

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The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the sustainable development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Region - BMA (level NUTS 2) preliminary evaluating the three chosen components: 1) economic growth and developmental changes; 2) competitiveness; and 3) territorial concentration and industrial specialization. First, we identified the main results of development changes and economic growth by applying Shift-share analysis on the metropolitan level. Second, the empirical evaluation of competitiveness in the BMA is based on the analysis of absolute and relative values of eight indicators by Spider method. Paper shows that the consideration of the national share, industrial mix and metropolitan/regional share in total Shift share of the BMA, as well as economic/functional specialization of the BMA indicate very strong process of deindustrialization. Allocative component of the BMA economic growth has positive value, reflecting the above-average sector productivity compared to the national average. Third, the important positive role of metropolitan/regional component in decomposition of the BMA economic growth is highlighted as one of the key results. Finally, comparative analysis of the industrial territorial concentration in the BMA in relation to Serbia is based on location quotient (LQ) or Balassa index as a valid measure. The results indicate absolute and relative differences in decrease of industry territorial concentration as well as inefficiency of utilizing territorial capital in the BMA. Results are important for the increase of regional competitiveness and territorial distribution in this area as well as for improvement of sustainable metropolitan and sector policies, planning and governance on this level.

Keywords: Belgrade Metropolitan Area (BMA), Comprehensive analysis/evaluation, economic growth and competitiveness, sustainable development.

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Authors: Matthias Stange

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In the early modern period, a different image of man began to prevail in Europe. The focus was on the self-determined human being and his abilities. At first, these developments could be seen in Italian painting and architecture, which again oriented itself to the concepts and forms of antiquity. For example, through the discovery of perspective representation by Brunelleschi or later the orthogonal projection by Alberti, after the ancient knowledge of optics had been forgotten in the Middle Ages. The understanding of reality in the Middle Ages was not focused on the sensually perceptible world, but was determined by ecclesiastical dogmas. The empirical part of this study examines the rediscovery and development of perspective. With the paradigm of antiquity, the figure of the architect was also recognised again - the cultural man trained theoretically and practically in numerous subjects, as Vitruvius describes him. In this context, the role of the architect, the influence on the painting of the Quattrocento as well as the influence on architectural representation in the Baroque period are examined. Baroque is commonly associated with the idea of illusionistic appearance as opposed to the tangible reality presented in the Renaissance. The study has shown that the central perspective projection developed by Filippo Brunelleschi enabled another understanding of seeing and the dissemination of painted images. Brunelleschi's development made it possible to understand the sight of nature as a reflection of what is presented to the viewer's eye. Alberti later shortened Brunelleschi's central perspective representation for practical use in painting. In early modern Italian architecture and painting, these developments apparently supported each other. The pictorial representation of architecture initially served the development of an art form before it became established in building practice itself.

Keywords: Alberti, Brunelleschi, Central perspective projection, Orthogonal projection, Quattrocento, Baroque.

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Authors: Jeries J. Abou-Hanna

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Several techniques exist for determining stress-intensity factors in linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis. These techniques are based on analytical, numerical, and empirical approaches that have been well documented in literature and engineering handbooks. However, not all techniques share the same merit. In addition to overly-conservative results, the numerical methods that require extensive computational effort, and those requiring copious user parameters hinder practicing engineers from efficiently evaluating stress-intensity factors. This paper investigates the prospects of reducing the complexity and required variables to determine stress-intensity factors through the utilization of the stress gradient and a weighting function. The heart of this work resides in the understanding that fracture emanating from stress concentration locations cannot be explained by a single maximum stress value approach, but requires use of a critical volume in which the crack exists. In order to understand the effectiveness of this technique, this study investigated components of different notch geometry and varying levels of stress gradients. Two forms of weighting functions were employed to determine stress-intensity factors and results were compared to analytical exact methods. The results indicated that the “exponential” weighting function was superior to the “absolute” weighting function. An error band +/- 10% was met for cases ranging from a steep stress gradient in a sharp v-notch to the less severe stress transitions of a large circular notch. The incorporation of the proposed method has shown to be a worthwhile consideration.

Keywords: Fracture mechanics, finite element method, stress intensity factor, stress gradient.

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Authors: Dina Tareq Ismail, Alexandria A. Proff

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a nation seeking to advance in all fields, particularly education. One area of focus for UAE 2021 agenda is to restructure UAE schools and universities by equipping them with highly developed technology. The agenda also advises educational institutions to prepare students with applicable and transferrable Information and Communication Technology (ICT) skills. Despite the emphasis on ICT and computer literacy skills, there exists limited empirical data on the use of M-Learning in the literature. This qualitative study explores the motivation of higher primary Arabic teachers in private schools toward implementing and integrating M-Learning apps in their classrooms. This research employs a phenomenological approach through the use of semistructured interviews with nine purposefully selected Arabic teachers. The data were analyzed using a content analysis via multiple stages of coding: open, axial, and thematic. Findings reveal three primary themes: (1) Arabic teachers with high levels of procedural knowledge in ICT are more motivated to implement M-Learning; (2) Arabic teachers' perceptions of self-efficacy influence their motivation toward implementation of M-Learning; (3) Arabic teachers implement M-Learning when they possess high utility and/or intrinsic value in these applications. These findings indicate a strong need for further training, equipping, and creating buy-in among Arabic teachers to enhance their ICT skills in implementing M-Learning. Further, given the limited availability of M-Learning apps designed for use in the Arabic language on the market, it is imperative that developers consider designing M-Learning tools that Arabic teachers, and Arabic-speaking students, can use and access more readily. This study contributes to closing the knowledge gap on teacher-motivation for implementing M-Learning in their classrooms in the UAE.

Keywords: ICT Skills, M-Learning, self-efficacy, teachermotivation.

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Authors: Abdelghani Boudiaf

Abstract:

The profusion of studies relating to the concept of organizational learning shows the importance that has been given to this concept in the management sciences. A few years ago, companies leaned towards ISO 9001 certification; this requires the implementation of the quality management system (QMS). In order for this objective to be achieved, companies must have a set of skills, which pushes them to develop learning through continuous training. The results of empirical research have shown that implementation of the QMS in the company promotes the development of learning. It should also be noted that several types of learning are developed in this sense. Given the nature of skills development is normative in the context of the quality demarche, companies are obliged to qualify and improve the skills of their human resources. Continuous training is the keystone to develop the necessary learning. To carry out continuous training, companies need to be able to identify their real needs by developing training plans based on well-defined engineering. The training process goes obviously through several stages. Initially, training has a general aspect, that is to say, it focuses on topics and actions of a general nature. Subsequently, this is done in a more targeted and more precise way to accompany the evolution of the QMS and also to make the changes decided each time (change of working method, change of practices, change of objectives, change of mentality, etc.). To answer our problematic we opted for the method of qualitative research. It should be noted that the case study method crosses several data collection techniques to explain and understand a phenomenon. Three cases of companies were studied as part of this research work using different data collection techniques related to this method.

Keywords: Changing mentalities, continuous training, organizational learning, quality management system, skills development.

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Authors: Gysele Lima Ricci, Jose Miguel Rodriguez Anton

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Companies in the tourism sector need to achieve competitive advantages for their survival in the market. In this way, the models based on association, cooperation, complementarity, distribution, exchange and mutual assistance arise as a possibility of organizational development, taking as reference the concept of networks. Many companies seek to partner in local networks as clusters to act together and associate. The main objective of the present research is to identify the specificities of management and the practices of cooperation in the tourist destination of São Paulo - Brazil, and to propose a new management model with possible cluster of tourism. The empirical analysis was carried out in three phases. As a first phase, a research was made by the companies, associations and tourism organizations existing in São Paulo, analyzing the characteristics of their business. In the second phase, the management specificities and cooperation practice used in the tourist destination. And in the third phase, identifying the possible strengths and weaknesses that potential or potential tourist cluster could have, proposing the development of the management model of the same adapted to the needs of the companies, associations and organizations. As a main result, it has been identified that companies, associations and organizations could be looking for synergies with each other and collaborate through a Hiperred organizational structure, in which they share their knowledge, try to make the most of the collaboration and to benefit from three concepts: flexibility, learning and collaboration. Finally, it is concluded that, the proposed tourism cluster management model is viable for the development of tourism destinations because it makes it possible to strategically address agents which are responsible for public policies, as well as public and private companies and organizations in their strategies competitiveness and cooperation.

Keywords: Cluster, management model, networks, tourism sector.

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Authors: Yao Wu

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In the context of financial globalization, China has put forward the policy goal of high-quality development, and the digital economy, with its advantage of information resources, is driving China's export trade to achieve high-quality development. Due to the long-standing financing constraints of small and medium-sized export enterprises, how to expand the export scale of small and medium-sized enterprises has become a major threshold for the development of China's export trade. This paper firstly adopts the hierarchical analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high-quality development of China's export trade; secondly, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018 are selected for empirical analysis to establish the impact model of digital inclusive finance on the high-quality development of China's export trade; based on the analysis of the heterogeneous enterprise trade model, a mediating effect model is established to verify the mediating role of credit constraint in the development of high-quality export trade in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper concludes that inclusive digital finance, with its unique digital and inclusive nature, alleviates the credit constraint problem among SMEs, enhances the binary marginal effect of SMEs' exports, optimizes their export scale and structure, and promotes the high-quality development of regional and even national export trade. Finally, based on the findings of this paper, we propose insights and suggestions for inclusive digital finance to promote the high-quality development of export trade.

Keywords: Digital inclusive finance, high-quality development of export trade, fixed effects, binary marginal effects.

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Authors: Francesco Ruscio, Paolo Paoletti, Jens Thomas, Paul Myers, Sebastiano Fichera

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This paper presents the development of a low-cost monitoring system for a hydroponic urban vertical farm, enabling its automation and a quantitative assessment of the farm performance. Urban farming has seen increasing interest in the last decade thanks to the development of energy efficient and affordable LED lights; however, the optimal configuration of such systems (i.e. amount of nutrients, light-on time, ambient temperature etc.) is mostly based on the farmers’ experience and empirical guidelines. Moreover, even if simple, the maintenance of such systems is labor intensive as it requires water to be topped-up periodically, mixing of the nutrients etc. To unlock the full potential of urban farming, a quantitative understanding of the role that each variable plays in the growth of the plants is needed, together with a higher degree of automation. The low-cost monitoring system proposed in this paper is a step toward filling this knowledge and technological gap, as it enables collection of sensor data related to water and air temperature, water level, humidity, pressure, light intensity, pH and electric conductivity without requiring any human intervention. More sensors and actuators can also easily be added thanks to the modular design of the proposed platform. Data can be accessed remotely via a simple web interface. The proposed platform can be used both for quantitatively optimizing the setup of the farms and for automating some of the most labor-intensive maintenance activities. Moreover, such monitoring system can also potentially be used for high-level decision making, once enough data are collected.

Keywords: Automation, hydroponics, internet of things, monitoring system, urban farming.

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Authors: Krishna Kumar Singh, Praveen Jain

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Collection of storm water runoff and forcing it into the groundwater is the need of the hour to sustain the ground water table. However, the runoff entraps various types of sediments and other floating objects whose removal are essential to avoid pollution of ground water and blocking of pores of aquifer. However, it requires regular cleaning and maintenance due to problem of clogging. To evaluate the performance of filter system consisting of coarse sand (CS), gravel (G) and pebble (P) layers, a laboratory experiment was conducted in a rectangular column. The effect of variable thickness of CS, G and P layers of the filtration unit of the recharge shaft on the recharge rate and the sediment concentration of effluent water were evaluated. Medium sand (MS) of three particle sizes, viz. 0.150–0.300 mm (T1), 0.300–0.425 mm (T2) and 0.425–0.600 mm of thickness 25 cm, 30 cm and 35 cm respectively in the top layer of the filter system and having seven influent sediment concentrations of 250–3,000 mg/l were used for experimental study. The performance was evaluated in terms of recharge rates and clogging time. The results indicated that 100 % suspended solids were entrapped in the upper 10 cm layer of MS, the recharge rates declined sharply for influent concentrations of more than 1,000 mg/l. All treatments with higher thickness of MS media indicated recharge rate slightly more than that of all treatment with lower thickness of MS media respectively. The performance of storm water infiltration systems was highly dependent on the formation of a clogging layer at the filter. An empirical relationship has been derived between recharge rates, inflow sediment load, size of MS and thickness of MS with using MLR.

Keywords: Groundwater, medium sand-mixed storm water filter, inflow sediment load.

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