Search results for: Point registration.

Authors: Aras Adhami Mirhoseini, Mohammad J. Yazdanpanah

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In this paper, we consider nested sliding mode control of SISO nonlinear systems, perturbed by bounded matched and unmatched uncertainties. The systems are assumed to be in strict-feedback form. A step wise procedure is introduced to obtain the controller. In each step, a continuous sliding mode controller is designed as virtual control law. Then the next step sliding surface is defined by using this virtual controller. These sliding surfaces are selected as nonlinear static functions of the system states. Finally in the last step, smooth static state feedback control law is determined such that the output reaches the desired set-point while the system is forced arbitrary close to the intersection of sliding surfaces and the states remain bounded.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, Strict-feedback form, Unmatched uncertainty, output regulation.

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Authors: Magdi M. Nabi, Ding-Li Yu

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This paper presents a neural network based model predictive control (MPC) strategy to control a strongly exothermic reaction with complicated nonlinear kinetics given by Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor that requires a very precise temperature control to maintain product uniformity. In the benchmark scenario, the operation of the reactor must be guaranteed under various disturbing influences, e.g., changing ambient temperatures or impurity of the monomer. Such a process usually controlled by conventional cascade control, it provides a robust operation, but often lacks accuracy concerning the required strict temperature tolerances. The predictive control strategy based on the RBF neural model is applied to solve this problem to achieve set-point tracking of the reactor temperature against disturbances. The result shows that the RBF based model predictive control gives reliable result in the presence of some disturbances and keeps the reactor temperature within a tight tolerance range around the desired reaction temperature.

Keywords: Chylla-Haase reactor, RBF neural network modelling, model predictive control.

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Authors: Antonio Estache, Atsushi Iimi

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Limited competition has been a serious concern in infrastructure procurement. Importantly, however, there are normally a number of potential bidders initially showing interest in proposed projects. This paper focuses on tackling the question why these initially interested bidders fade out. An empirical problem is that no bids of fading-out firms are observable. They could decide not to enter the process at the beginning of the tendering or may be technically disqualified at any point in the selection process. The paper applies the double selection model to procurement data from road development projects in developing countries and shows that competition ends up restricted, because bidders are self-selective and auctioneers also tend to limit participation depending on the size of contracts.Limited competition would likely lead to high infrastructure procurement costs, threatening fiscal sustainability and economic growth.

Keywords: Auction theory, endogenous bidder entry, infrastructure development, public procurement.

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Authors: Ziquan Hu, Kun She, Shahzad Ali, Kai Yan

Abstract:

Game theory could be used to analyze the conflicted issues in the field of information hiding. In this paper, 2-phase game can be used to build the embedder-attacker system to analyze the limits of hiding capacity of embedding algorithms: the embedder minimizes the expected damage and the attacker maximizes it. In the system, the embedder first consumes its resource to build embedded units (EU) and insert the secret information into EU. Then the attacker distributes its resource evenly to the attacked EU. The expected equilibrium damage, which is maximum damage in value from the point of view of the attacker and minimum from the embedder against the attacker, is evaluated by the case when the attacker attacks a subset from all the EU. Furthermore, the optimal equilibrium capacity of hiding information is calculated through the optimal number of EU with the embedded secret information. Finally, illustrative examples of the optimal equilibrium capacity are presented.

Keywords: 2-Phase Game, Expected Equilibrium damage, InformationHiding, Optimal Equilibrium Capacity.

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Authors: Ashish Thakur, Radhey Shyam Anand

Abstract:

This paper presents the region based segmentation method for ultrasound images using local statistics. In this segmentation approach the homogeneous regions depends on the image granularity features, where the interested structures with dimensions comparable to the speckle size are to be extracted. This method uses a look up table comprising of the local statistics of every pixel, which are consisting of the homogeneity and similarity bounds according to the kernel size. The shape and size of the growing regions depend on this look up table entries. The algorithms are implemented by using connected seeded region growing procedure where each pixel is taken as seed point. The region merging after the region growing also suppresses the high frequency artifacts. The updated merged regions produce the output in formed of segmented image. This algorithm produces the results that are less sensitive to the pixel location and it also allows a segmentation of the accurate homogeneous regions.

Keywords: Local statistics, region growing, segmentation, ultrasound images.

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Authors: Martin Roth, Axel Klarmann, Bogdan Franczyk

Abstract:

The importance of logistics has changed enormously in the last few decades. While logistics was formerly one of the core functions of most companies, logistics or at least parts of their functions are nowadays outsourced to external logistic service providers in terms of contracts. As a result of this shift new business models like the fourth party logistics provider emerged, which designs, plans and monitors the resulting logistics networks. This new business model and topics such as Synchromodality or Big Data impose new requirements on the underlying IT, which cannot be met with conventional concepts and approaches. In this paper, the challenges of logistics network monitoring are outlined by using a scenario. The most common layers in a logical multilayered architecture for an information system are used to point out the arising challenges for IT. In addition, first appropriate solution approaches are introduced.

 

Keywords: Complex Event Processing, Fourth Party Logistics Service Provider, Logistics monitoring, Synchromodality.

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Authors: Kenji Suyama, Masahiro Oshida, Noboru Owada

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In this paper, an estimation accuracy of multiple moving talker tracking using a microphone array is improved. The tracking can be achieved by the adaptive method in which two algorithms are integrated, namely, the PAST (Projection Approximation Subspace Tracking) algorithm and the IPLS (Interior Point Least Square) algorithm. When either talker begins to speak again after a silent period, an appropriate feasible region for an evaluation function of the IPLS algorithm might not be set. Then, the tracking fails due to the incorrect updating. Therefore, if an increment of the number of active talkers is detected, the feasible region must be reset. Then, a low cost realization is required for the high speed tracking and a high accuracy realization is desired for the precise tracking. In this paper, the directions roughly estimated using the delayed-sum-array method are used for the resetting. Several results of experiments performed in an actual room environment show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: moving talkers tracking, microphone array, signal subspace

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Due to the importance of ports to trade and economic development of the regions in which they are inserted, in recent decades the number of studies devoted to this subject has increased. Part of these studies considers the ports as business agglomerations and focuses on port governance. This is an important approach since the port performance is the result of activities performed by actors belonging to the port-logistics chain, which need to be properly coordinated. This coordination takes place through a port governance model. Given this context, this study aims to analyze the governance model of the port of Santos from the perspective of port customers. To do this, a closed-ended questionnaire based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance was applied to the international freight forwarders that operate in the port. The results show the applicability of the considered model and highlight improvement opportunities to be implemented at the port of Santos.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Customers’ Perception.

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Authors: Ahmed ElShafee, Karim Alaa Hamed

Abstract:

This paper presents a design and prototype implementation of new home automation system that uses WiFi technology as a network infrastructure connecting its parts. The proposed system consists of two main components; the first part is the server (web server), which presents system core that manages, controls, and monitors users- home. Users and system administrator can locally (LAN) or remotely (internet) manage and control system code. Second part is hardware interface module, which provides appropriate interface to sensors and actuator of home automation system. Unlike most of available home automation system in the market the proposed system is scalable that one server can manage many hardware interface modules as long as it exists on WiFi network coverage. System supports a wide range of home automation devices like power management components, and security components. The proposed system is better from the scalability and flexibility point of view than the commercially available home automation systems.

Keywords: Home automation, Wireless LAN, WiFi, MicroControllers

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Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.

Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.

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Authors: Reihaneh Rafiemanzelat, Maryam Imani Emadi

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The need to protect our cultural heritage was stressed on revitalization of historical city centers in communities. The main aim of this research is to attract finance and activities to the historical city centers through the citizens and municipalities participation while cities expanded their boundaries toward suburban areas. Today the main problems which facing to the most historical city centers, is loss of their centrality through effect of urbanization on any point of the cities which is the most important issue on neglect and abandonment of the historical central area by decentralizing living, commerce and public areas. This article evaluate the ways in which city center revitalization can be effect on vitality and viability of the central area in case of Naghshe Jahan square which situated at the center of Isfahan city, Iran. Constructed between 1598 and 1629, it is now an important historical site, and one of UNESCO's World Heritage Sites.

Keywords: City centers, revitalization, urban development, vitality and viability.

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Authors: C. D. Papanikolaou, V. A. Giouvanis, E. A. Karatasiou, D. S. Dimakas, M. A. Sakellariou-Makrantonaki

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Irrigation is one of the most important cultivation practices for each crop, especially in areas where rainfall is enough to cover the crop water needs. In such areas, the farmers must irrigate in order to achieve high economical results. The precise irrigation scheduling contributes to irrigation water saving and thus a valuable natural resource is protected. Under this point of view, in the experimental field of the Laboratory of Agricultural Hydraulics of the University of Thessaly, a research was conducted during the growing season of 2012 in order to evaluate the growth, seed and oil production of sunflower as well as the water saving, by applying different methods of irrigation scheduling. Three treatments in four replications were organized. These were: a) surface drip irrigation where the irrigation scheduling based on the Penman-Monteith (PM) method (control); b) surface drip irrigation where the irrigation scheduling based on a soil moisture sensor (SMS); and c) surface drip irrigation, where the irrigation scheduling based on a soil potential sensor (WM).

Keywords: Irrigation scheduling, soil moisture sensors, sustainable agriculture, water saving.

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Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdurazag Ghila, Saleh Gashoot, Ahmed Abdulla

Abstract:

Flight management system (FMS) is a specialized computer system that automates a wide variety of in-flight tasks, reducing the workload on the flight crew to the point that modern aircraft no longer carry flight engineers or navigators. The primary function of FMS is to perform the in-flight management of the flight plan using various sensors (such as GPS and INS often backed up by radio navigation) to determine the aircraft's position. From the cockpit FMS is normally controlled through a Control Display Unit (CDU) which incorporates a small screen and keyboard or touch screen. This paper investigates the performance of GPS/ INS integration techniques in which the data fusion process is done using Kalman filtering. This will include the importance of sensors calibration as well as the alignment of the strap down inertial navigation system. The limitations of the inertial navigation systems are investigated in order to understand why INS sometimes is integrated with other navigation aids and not just operating in standalone mode. Finally, both the loosely coupled and tightly coupled configurations are analyzed for several types of situations and operational conditions.

Keywords: GPS, INS, Kalman Filter.

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Authors: Petr Homola, Lucie Novakova, Vaclav Kafka, Mariluz P. Oscoz

Abstract:

Shear spinning is closely related to the asymmetric incremental sheet forming (AISF) that could significantly reduce costs incurred by the fabrication of complex aeronautical components with a minimal environmental impact. The spinning experiments were carried out on commercially pure titanium (Ti-Gr2) and Ti-6Al-4V (Ti-Gr5) alloy. Three forming modes were used to characterize the titanium alloys properties from the point of view of different spinning parameters. The structure and properties of the materials were assessed by means of metallographic analyses and microhardness measurements. The highest value wall angle failure limit was achieved using spinning parameters mode for both materials. The feed rate effect was observed only in the samples from the Ti-Gr2 material, when a refinement of the grain microstructure with lower feed rate and higher tangential speed occurred. Ti-Gr5 alloy exhibited a decrease of the microhardness at higher straining due to recovery processes.

Keywords: Incremental forming, metallography, shear spinning, titanium alloys.

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Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Bahram Notghi, Golamhassan Paygane

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Vehicle suspension design must fulfill some conflicting criteria. Among those is ride comfort which is attained by minimizing the acceleration transmitted to the sprung mass, via suspension spring and damper. Also good handling of a vehicle is a desirable property which requires stiff suspension and therefore is in contrast with a vehicle with good ride. Among the other desirable features of a suspension is the minimization of the maximum travel of suspension. This travel which is called suspension working space in vehicle dynamics literature is also a design constraint and it favors good ride. In this research a full car 8 degrees of freedom model has been developed and the three above mentioned criteria, namely: ride, handling and working space has been adopted as objective functions. The Multi Objective Programming (MOP) discipline has been used to find the Pareto Front and some reasoning used to chose a design point between these non dominated points of Pareto Front.

Keywords: Vehicle, Ride, Handling, Suspension, Working Space, Multi Objective Programming.

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Authors: Kailash C. Madan

Abstract:

We study four models of a three server queueing system with Bernoulli schedule optional server vacations. Customers arriving at the system one by one in a Poisson process are provided identical exponential service by three parallel servers according to a first-come, first served queue discipline. In model A, all three servers may be allowed a vacation at one time, in Model B at the most two of the three servers may be allowed a vacation at one time, in model C at the most one server is allowed a vacation, and in model D no server is allowed a vacation. We study steady the state behavior of the four models and obtain steady state probability generating functions for the queue size at a random point of time for all states of the system. In model D, a known result for a three server queueing system without server vacations is derived.

Keywords: A three server queue, Bernoulli schedule server vacations, queue size distribution at a random epoch, steady state.

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Authors: M. Shahar Yar, M. Mustaqeem Abdullah, Jaseela Majeed

Abstract:

A series of 1-(1H-benzimidazol-2-yl)-3-(substituted phenyl)-2-propen-1-one were allowed to react with hydrazine hydrate and phenyl hydrazine in submitted reactions to get pyrazoline and phenyl pyrazoline derivatives. All the compounds entered for screening at the Tuberculosis Antimicrobial Acquisition and Coordinating Facility (TAACF) for their in vitro antibacterial activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv strain (ATCC 27294) using Microplate Alamar Blue Assay (MABA) susceptibility test. The results expressed as MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration) in μg/mL. Among the fifteen compounds, eight compounds were found to have MIC values less than 10 μg/mL. These were subjected for cytotoxicity assay in VERO cells to determine CC50 (cytotoxic concentration 50%) values and finally SI (Selectivity Index) were calculated. Compound (XV) 2-[5-(4- fluorophenyl)-1-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-3-pyrazolyl]-1Hbenzimidazole was considered the best candidate of the series that could be a good starting point to develop new lead compounds in the fight against tuberculosis.

Keywords: anti-tubercular activity, benzimidazole, pyrazoline.

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Authors: Abhay Utpat, R. B. Ingle, M. R. Nandgaonkar

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The vibrations produced by a single point defect on various parts of the bearing under constant radial load are predicted by using a theoretical model. The model includes variation in the response due to the effect of bearing dimensions, rotating frequency distribution of load. The excitation forces are generated when the defects on the races strike to rolling elements. In case of the outer ring defect, the pulses generated are with periodicity of outer ring defect frequency where as for inner ring defect, the pulses are with periodicity of inner ring defect frequency. The effort has been carried out in preparing the physical model of the system. Different defect frequencies are obtained and are used to find out the amplitudes of the vibration due to excitation of the bearing parts. Increase in the radial load or severity of the defect produces a significant change in bearing signature characteristics.

Keywords: Condition monitoring, defect frequency, rolling element, vibration response.

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Authors: E. Abedi, A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, S. Salehi

Abstract:

Modeling and vibration of a flexible link manipulator with tow flexible links and rigid joints are investigated which can include an arbitrary number of flexible links. Hamilton principle and finite element approach is proposed to model the dynamics of flexible manipulators. The links are assumed to be deflection due to bending. The association between elastic displacements of links is investigated, took into account the coupling effects of elastic motion and rigid motion. Flexible links are treated as Euler-Bernoulli beams and the shear deformation is thus abandoned. The dynamic behavior due to flexibility of links is well demonstrated through numerical simulation. The rigid-body motion and elastic deformations are separated by linearizing the equations of motion around the rigid body reference path. Simulation results are shown on for both position and force trajectory tracking tasks in the presence of varying parameters and unknown dynamics remarkably well. The proposed method can be used in both dynamic simulation and controller design.

Keywords: Flexible manipulator, flexible link, dynamicmodeling, end point.

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

Abstract:

In aviation a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre-sticks, side-sticks, pedals and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging and with them a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare dynamic amplification factors of design described in this paper with classical one. Functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carried out a comfort of use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including literature review, reasoning behind components selection and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: Mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming, rescue missions, rescue robotics.

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Authors: Hisham A. Elfergani, Ayad A. Abdalla, Ahmed R. Ballil

Abstract:

Acoustic Emission (AE) is one of the most effective non-destructive tests that can be used to detect the defect process as it is occurring. AE techniques can be used to monitor a wide range of structures and materials such as metals, non-metals and combinations of these when load is applied. The current work investigates the effectiveness and accuracy of TOA method in AE tests involving reinforced composite concrete-mortar structures. A series of experimental tests were performed using the Hsu-Neilson (H-N) source to study 2-D location accuracy using this method on concrete-mortar (400×400 mm) specimens. Four AE sensors (R3I – resonant frequency 30 kHz) were mounted to the mortar surface and six sources were performed at each point of preselected locations on the upper surface of the mortar. Results show that the TOA method can be used effectively to locate signals on composite concrete/mortar specimen and has high accuracy.

Keywords: Acoustic emission, time of arrival, composite materials, reinforced concrete.

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Authors: Hosein Ghaffarzadeh, Robab Naseri Ghalghachi

Abstract:

Structural redundancy is an interesting point in seismic design of structures. Initially, the structural redundancy is described as indeterminate degree of a system. Although many definitions are presented for redundancy in structures, recently the definition of structural redundancy has been related to the configuration of structural system and the number of lateral load transferring directions in the structure. The steel frames with infill walls are general systems in the constructing of usual residential buildings in some countries. It is obviously declared that the performance of structures will be affected by adding masonry infill walls. In order to investigate the effect of infill walls on the redundancy of the steel frame which constructed with masonry walls, the components of redundancy including redundancy variation index, redundancy strength index and redundancy response modification factor were extracted for the frames with masonry infills. Several steel frames with typical storey number and various numbers of bays were designed and considered. The redundancy of frames with and without infill walls was evaluated by proposed method. The results showed the presence of infill causes increase of redundancy.

Keywords: Structural redundancy, Masonry infill walls frames.

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Authors: Jayanth Jacob, C. V. Hariharakrishnan, Suganthi L.

Abstract:

The rapid urbanization of cities has a bane in the form road accidents that cause extensive damage to life and limbs. A number of location based factors are enablers of road accidents in the city. The speed of travel of vehicles is non-uniform among locations within a city. In this study, the perception of vehicle users is captured on a 10-point rating scale regarding the degree of variation in speed of travel at chosen locations in the city. The average rating is used to cluster locations using fuzzy c-means clustering and classify them as low, moderate and high speed of travel locations. The high speed of travel locations can be classified proactively to ensure that accidents do not occur due to the speeding of vehicles at such locations. The advantage of fuzzy c-means clustering is that a location may be a part of more than one cluster to a varying degree and this gives a better picture about the location with respect to the characteristic (speed of travel) being studied.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Location Specific, Road Accidents.

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Authors: Berna Cantürk-Günhan, Esra Bukova-Güzel

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to determine the primary mathematics student teachers- views related to use instructional technology tools in course of the learning process and to reveal how the sample presentations towards different mathematical concepts affect their views. This is a qualitative study involving twelve mathematics students from a public university. The data gathered from two semi-structural interviews. The first one was realized in the beginning of the study. After that the representations prepared by the researchers were showed to the participants. These representations contain animations, Geometer-s Sketchpad activities, video-clips, spreadsheets, and power-point presentations. The last interview was realized at the end of these representations. The data from the interviews and content analyses were transcribed and read and reread to explore the major themes. Findings revealed that the views of the students changed in this process and they believed that the instructional technology tools should be used in their classroom.

Keywords: Integrating Technology, Mathematics Education, Primary Education, Teacher Education.

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Authors: Sunil S. Mayengbam, S. Choudhury

Abstract:

A method to predict the column size for displacement based design of reinforced concrete frame buildings with higher target inter storey drift is reported here. The column depth derived from empirical relation as a function of given beam section, target inter-story drift, building plan features and common displacement based design parameters is used. Regarding the high drift requirement, a minimum column-beam moment capacity ratio is maintained during capacity design. The method is used in designing four, eight and twelve story frame buildings with displacement based design for three percent target inter storey drift. Non linear time history analysis of the designed buildings are performed under five artificial ground motions to show that the columns are found elastic enough to avoid column sway mechanism assuring that for the design the column size can be used with or without minor changes.

Keywords: Column size, point of contra flexure, displacement based design, capacity design.

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Authors: Radoslav Židek, Veronika Šidlová, Radovan Kasarda, Birgit Fuerst-Waltl

Abstract:

Machine learning represents a set of topics dealing with the creation and evaluation of algorithms that facilitate pattern recognition, classification, and prediction, based on models derived from existing data. The data can present identification patterns which are used to classify into groups. The result of the analysis is the pattern which can be used for identification of data set without the need to obtain input data used for creation of this pattern. An important requirement in this process is careful data preparation validation of model used and its suitable interpretation. For breeders, it is important to know the origin of animals from the point of the genetic diversity. In case of missing pedigree information, other methods can be used for traceability of animal´s origin. Genetic diversity written in genetic data is holding relatively useful information to identify animals originated from individual countries. We can conclude that the application of data mining for molecular genetic data using supervised learning is an appropriate tool for hypothesis testing and identifying an individual.

Keywords: Genetic data, Pinzgau cattle, supervised learning.

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Authors: A. Boudiaf

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and apprehend, through four case studies, the interest of the project of the implementation of the quality management system (QMS) at four Moroccan small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This project could generate significant organizational change to improve the functioning of the organization. In fact, quality is becoming a necessity in the current business world. It is considered to be a major component in companies’ competitive strategies. It should be noted that quality management is characterized by a set of methods and techniques that can be used to solve malfunctions and reorganize companies. It is useful to point out that the choice of the adoption of the quality approach could be influenced by the circumstances of the business context, it could also be derived from its strategic vision; this means that this choice can be characterized as either a strategic aspect or a reactive aspect. This would probably have a major impact on the functioning of the QMS and also on the perception of the quality issue by company managers and their employees.

Keywords: Business context, organizational change, quality, reorganization.

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Authors: Pichet Sriyanyong

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of an enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) combined with Gaussian Mutation (GM) for solving the Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) problem considering the operating constraints of generators. The EPSO consists of the standard PSO and a modified heuristic search approaches. Namely, the ability of the traditional PSO is enhanced by applying the modified heuristic search approach to prevent the solutions from violating the constraints. In addition, Gaussian Mutation is aimed at increasing the diversity of global search, whilst it also prevents being trapped in suboptimal points during search. To illustrate its efficiency and effectiveness, the developed EPSO-GM approach is tested on the 3-unit and 10-unit 24-hour systems considering valve-point effect. From the experimental results, it can be concluded that the proposed EPSO-GM provides, the accurate solution, the efficiency, and the feature of robust computation compared with other algorithms under consideration.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), GaussianMutation (GM), Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED).

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Sibel Ecemis Kiliç, Neslihan Karatas

Abstract:

The concept of urban transformation came about through interventions aimed at bringing socially and economically problematic areas of cities into use. The issue of urban transformation arose frequently during the post-2000 period in particular, and legal regulations on this matter were also developed in Turkey. Urban transformation project would be a focal point for the formation of the city in the near future. Izmir, which is third largest city of Turkey, is an important trade and port city. But, assessment of the current situation shows that, the majority of existing residential areas was formed with squatters and unplanned settlements in Izmir city center. Therefore an important part of these areas have significant problems in terms of the quality of life, safety and environmental quality. In this study, the central policies in Turkey and local policies in Đzmir about urban transformation will be considered. In addition, urban renewal projects that are being implemented in Izmir were discussed and suggestions will be developed in accordance with this policy.

Keywords: urban transformation, urban renewal projects, Izmir, urban planning.

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