Search results for: phases and events

Authors: Pa Pa Lin

Abstract:

This research work is concerned with the eigenvalue problem for the integral operators which are obtained by linearization of a nonlocal evolution equation. The purpose of section II.A is to describe the nature of the problem and the objective of the project. The problem is related to the “stable solution" of the evolution equation which is the so-called “instanton" that describe the interface between two stable phases. The analysis of the instanton and its asymptotic behavior are described in section II.C by imposing the Green function and making use of a probability kernel. As a result , a classical Theorem which is important for an instanton is proved. Section III devoted to a study of the integral operators related to interface dynamics which concern the analysis of the Cauchy problem for the evolution equation with initial data close to different phases and different regions of space.

Keywords: Evolution, Green function, instanton, integral operators.

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Authors: Carrie Ho, Choo Bo Quan

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Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution for a residential catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for two storm events in 2011. Runoff from two storm events were sampled and tested for water quality parameters including TSS, BOD5, COD, NH3-N, NO3-N, NO2-N, P and Pb. Concentration of the water quality parameters was found to vary significantly between storms and the pollutant of concern was found to be NO3-N, TSS, COD and Pb. Results were compared to the Interim National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (INWQS),and the stormwater runoff from the study can be classified as polluted, exceeding class III water quality, especially in terms of TSS, COD, and NH3-N with maximum EMCs of 158, 135, and 2.17 mg/L, respectively.

Keywords: Residential land-use, urban runoff, water quality.

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Authors: Aiping Liu, Xiaoping Ying, Jing Luo

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53 college students answered questions regarding the circumstances in which they first heard about the news of Wenchuan earthquake or the news of their acceptance to college which took place approximately one year ago, and answered again two years later. The number of details recalled about their circumstances for both events was high and didn-t decline two years later. However, consistency in reported details over two years was low. Participants were more likely to construct central (e.g., Where were you?) than peripheral information (What were you wearing?), and the confidence of the central information was higher than peripheral information, which indicated that they constructed more when they were more confident.

Keywords: flashbulb memory, consistency, reconstructive error, confidence

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: M. H. Fattahi, H. Jahangiri

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All the geophysical phenomena including river networks and flow time series are fractal events inherently and fractal patterns can be investigated through their behaviors. A non-linear system like a river basin can well be analyzed by a non-linear measure such as the fractal analysis. A bilateral study is held on the fractal properties of the river network and the river flow time series. A moving window technique is utilized to scan the fractal properties of them. Results depict both events follow the same strategy regarding to the fractal properties. Both the river network and the time series fractal dimension tend to saturate in a distinct value.

Keywords: river flow time series, fractal, river networks

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Authors: Farideh Sharififar, Zahra Jamalian, Reza Nikbakhsh, Zahra Nobakht Ramezani

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In sport, human resources management gives special attention to method of applying volunteers, their maintenance, and participation of volunteers with each other and management approaches for better operation of events celebrants. The recognition of volunteers- characteristics and motives is important to notice, because it makes the basis of their participation and commitment at sport environment. The motivation and commitment of 281 volunteers were assessed using the organizational commitment scale, motivation scale and personal characteristics questionnaire.The descriptive results showed that; 64% of volunteers were women with age average 21/24 years old. They were physical education student, single (71/9%), without occupation (53%) and with average of 5 years sport experience. Their most important motivation was career factor and the most important commitment factor was normative factor. The results of examining the hypothesized showed that; age, sport experience and education are effective in the amount of volunteers- commitment. And the motive factors such as career, material, purposive and protective factors also have the power to predict the amount of sports volunteers- commitment value. Therefore it is recommended to provide possible opportunities for volunteers and carrying out appropriate instructional courses by events executive managers.

Keywords: Sport Volunteers, Motivation, Organizational Commitment, Sport Event

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Authors: M. Benattou, K. Tamine

Abstract:

This paper presents a distributed intrusion detection system IDS, based on the concept of specialized distributed agents community representing agents with the same purpose for detecting distributed attacks. The semantic of intrusion events occurring in a predetermined network has been defined. The correlation rules referring the process which our proposed IDS combines the captured events that is distributed both spatially and temporally. And then the proposed IDS tries to extract significant and broad patterns for set of well-known attacks. The primary goal of our work is to provide intrusion detection and real-time prevention capability against insider attacks in distributed and fully automated environments.

Keywords: Mobile agent, specialized agent, interpreter agent, event rules, correlation.

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Authors: Norbert Burger, Thorsten Staake

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What influences microsystems (MEMS) and nanosystems (NEMS) innovation teams apart from technology complexity? Based on in-depth interviews with innovators, this research explores the key influences on innovation teams in the early phases of MEMS/NEMS. Projects are rare and may last from 5 to 10 years or more from idea to concept. As fundamental technology development in MEMS/NEMS is highly complex and interdisciplinary by involving expertise from different basic and engineering disciplines, R&D is rather a 'testing of ideas' with many uncertainties than a clearly structured process. The purpose of this study is to explore the innovation teams- environment and give specific insights for future management practices. The findings are grouped into three major areas: people, know-how and experience, and market. The results highlight the importance and differences of innovation teams- composition, transdisciplinary knowledge, project evaluation and management compared to the counterparts from new product development teams.

Keywords: Innovation teams, early phases, Microsystems, Nanosystems, technology developments.

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Authors: Irani, Mohammad, Bozorgmehry Boozarjomehry, Ramin, Pishvaie Mahmoud Reza, Ahmad Tavasoli

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Considering non-ideal behavior of fluids and its effects on hydrodynamic and mass transfer in multiphase flow is very essential. Simulations were performed that takes into account the effects of mass transfer and mixture non-ideality on hydrodynamics reported by Irani et al. In this paper, by assuming the density of phases to be constant and Raullt-s law instead of using EOS and fugacity coefficient definition, respectively for both the liquid and gas phases, the importance of non-ideality effects on mass transfer and hydrodynamic behavior was studied. The results for a system of octane/propane (T=323 K, P =445 kpa) also indicated that the assumption of constant density in simulation had major role to diverse from experimental data. Furthermore, comparison between obtained results and the previous report indicated significant differences between experimental data and simulation results with more ideal assumptions.

Keywords: Multiphase flow, VOF, mass transfer, Raoult's law, non-ideal thermodynamic, CFD.

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Authors: Louay M. Jeroudaih, Mohamed S. Hajji

Abstract:

This paper looks into areas not covered by prominent Agent-Oriented Software Engineering (AOSE) methodologies. Extensive paper review led to the identification of two issues, first most of these methodologies almost neglect semantic web and ontology. Second, as expected, each one has its strength and weakness and may focus on some phases of the development lifecycle but not all of the phases. The work presented here builds extensions to a highly regarded AOSE methodology (MaSE) in order to cover the areas that this methodology does not concentrate on. The extensions include introducing an ontology stage for semantic representation and integrating early requirement specification from a methodology which mainly focuses on that. The integration involved developing transformation rules (with the necessary handling of nonmatching notions) between the two sets of representations and building the software which automates the transformation. The application of this integration on a case study is also presented in the paper. The main flow of MaSE stages was changed to smoothly accommodate the new additions.

Keywords: Agents, Intelligent Agents, Software Engineering(SE), UML, AUML, and Design Patterns.

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Authors: Zundong Zhang, Limin Jia, Xiaoliang Sun

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The Beijing road traffic system, as a typical huge urban traffic system, provides a platform for analyzing the complex characteristics and the evolving mechanisms of urban traffic systems. Based on dynamic network theory, we construct the dynamic model of the Beijing road traffic system in which the dynamical properties are described completely. Furthermore, we come into the conclusion that urban traffic systems can be viewed as static networks, stochastic networks and complex networks at different system phases by analyzing the structural randomness. As well as, we demonstrate the evolving process of the Beijing road traffic network based on real traffic data, validate the stochastic characteristics and the scale-free property of the network at different phases

Keywords: Dynamic Network Models, Structural Randomness, Scale-free Property, Multi-mode character

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Authors: Samir Al-Zobaidi

Abstract:

This study attempts to understand the effect of different UV irradiation methods on the intercalation of LDPE/MMT nanocomposites, and its molecular behavior at certain isothermal crystallization temperature. Three different methods of UV exposure were employed using single composition of LDPE/MMT nanocomposites. All samples were annealed for 5 hours at a crystallization temperature of 100^oC. The crystallization temperature was chosen to be at large supercooling temperature to ensure quick and complete crystallization. The raw material of LDPE consisted of two stable monoclinic and orthorhombic phases according to XRD results. The thermal behavior of both phases acted differently when UV exposure method was changed. The monoclinic phase was more dependent on the method used compared to the orthorhombic phase. The intercalation of clay, as well as, the non-isothermal crystallization temperature, has also shown a clear dependency on the type of UV exposure. A third phase that is thermally less stable was also observed. Its respond to UV irradiation was greater since it contains low molecular weight entities which make it more vulnerable to any UV exposure.

Keywords: LDPE/MMt nanocomposites, crystallization, UV irradiation, intercalation.

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Authors: Konstantinos Sotiriadis, Radosław Mróz

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In the present work the internal sulfate attack on pastes made from pure clinker phases was studied. Two binders were produced: (a) a binder with 2% C3A and 18% C4AF content; (b) a binder with 10% C3A and C4AF content each. Gypsum was used as the sulfate bearing compound, while calcium carbonate added to differentiate the binders produced. The phases formed were identified by XRD analysis. The results showed that ettringite was the deterioration phase detected in the case of the low C3A content binder. Carbonation occurred in the specimen without calcium carbonate addition, while portlandite was observed in the one containing calcium carbonate. In the case of the high C3A content binder, traces of thaumasite were detected when calcium carbonate was not incorporated in the binder. A solid solution of thaumasite and ettringite was found when calcium carbonate was added. The amount of C3A had not fully reacted with sulfates, since its corresponding peaks were detected.

Keywords: Tricalcium aluminate, calcium aluminate ferrite, sulfate attack, calcium carbonate, low temperature.

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Authors: G. Haupt

Abstract:

Existing literature ondesign reasoning seems to give either one sided accounts on expert design behaviour based on internal processing. In the same way ecological theoriesseem to focus one sidedly on external elementsthat result in a lack of unifying design cognition theory. Although current extended design cognition studies acknowledge the intellectual interaction between internal and external resources, there still seems to be insufficient understanding of the complexities involved in such interactive processes. As such,this paper proposes a novelmulti-directional model for design researchers tomap the complex and dynamic conduct controlling behaviour in which both the computational and ecological perspectives are integrated in a vertical manner. A clear distinction between identified intentional and emerging physical drivers, and relationships between them during the early phases of experts- design process, is demonstrated by presenting a case study in which the model was employed.

Keywords: External representation, early phases, extended design cognition, internal processes and external drivers, conduct controlling behaviour.

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Authors: Elena B. Cherepetskaya, Alexander A. Karabutov, Natalia B. Podymova, Ivan Sas

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Nonlinear evolution of broadband ultrasonic pulses passed through the rock specimens is studied using the apparatus “GEOSCAN-02M”. Ultrasonic pulses are excited by the pulses of Qswitched Nd:YAG laser with the time duration of 10 ns and with the energy of 260 mJ. This energy can be reduced to 20 mJ by some light filters. The laser beam radius did not exceed 5 mm. As a result of the absorption of the laser pulse in the special material – the optoacoustic generator–the pulses of longitudinal ultrasonic waves are excited with the time duration of 100 ns and with the maximum pressure amplitude of 10 MPa. The immersion technique is used to measure the parameters of these ultrasonic pulses passed through a specimen, the immersion liquid is distilled water. The reference pulse passed through the cell with water has the compression and the rarefaction phases. The amplitude of the rarefaction phase is five times lower than that of the compression phase. The spectral range of the reference pulse reaches 10 MHz. The cubic-shaped specimens of the Karelian gabbro are studied with the rib length 3 cm. The ultimate strength of the specimens by the uniaxial compression is (300±10) MPa. As the reference pulse passes through the area of the specimen without cracks the compression phase decreases and the rarefaction one increases due to diffraction and scattering of ultrasound, so the ratio of these phases becomes 2.3:1. After preloading some horizontal cracks appear in the specimens. Their location is found by one-sided scanning of the specimen using the backward mode detection of the ultrasonic pulses reflected from the structure defects. Using the computer processing of these signals the images are obtained of the cross-sections of the specimens with cracks. By the increase of the reference pulse amplitude from 0.1 MPa to 5 MPa the nonlinear transformation of the ultrasonic pulse passed through the specimen with horizontal cracks results in the decrease by 2.5 times of the amplitude of the rarefaction phase and in the increase of its duration by 2.1 times. By the increase of the reference pulse amplitude from 5 MPa to 10 MPa the time splitting of the phases is observed for the bipolar pulse passed through the specimen. The compression and rarefaction phases propagate with different velocities. These features of the powerful broadband ultrasonic pulses passed through the rock specimens can be described by the hysteresis model of Preisach- Mayergoyz and can be used for the location of cracks in the optically opaque materials.

Keywords: Cracks, geological materials, nonlinear evolution of ultrasonic pulses, rock.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Seyed Mostafa Torabi

Abstract:

A Wireless sensor network (WSN) consists of a set of battery-powered nodes, which collaborate to perform sensing tasks in a given environment. Each node in WSN should be capable to act for long periods of time with scrimpy or no external management. One requirement for this independent is: in the presence of adverse positions, the sensor nodes must be capable to configure themselves. Hence, the nodes for determine the existence of unusual events in their surroundings should make use of position awareness mechanisms. This work approaches the problem by considering the possible unusual events as diseases, thus making it possible to diagnose them through their symptoms, namely, their side effects. Considering these awareness mechanisms as a foundation for highlevel monitoring services, this paper also shows how these mechanisms are included in the primal plan of an intrusion detection system.

Keywords: Awareness Mechanism, Intrusion Detection, Independent, Wireless Sensor Network

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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Authors: Gitanjali Devi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma, Pranayee Datta, Anjana Kakoti Mahanta

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be modeled for High Energy Particle analysis with special emphasis on shower core location. The work describes the use of an ANN based system which has been configured to predict locations of cores of showers in the range 1010.5 to 1020.5 eV. The system receives density values as inputs and generates coordinates of shower events recorded for values captured by 20 core positions and 80 detectors in an area of 100 meters. Twenty ANNs are trained for the purpose and the positions of shower events optimized by using cooperative ANN learning. The results derived with variations of input upto 50% show success rates in the range of 90s.

Keywords: EAS, Shower, Core, ANN, Location.

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Authors: K. Kannan, V. Venkataraman

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Free convection effects and heat transfer due to a pulsating point heat source embedded in an infinite, fluid saturated, porous dusty medium are studied analytically. Both velocity and temperature fields are discussed in the form of series expansions in the Rayleigh number, for both the fluid and particle phases based on the mean heat generation rate from source and on the permeability of the porous dusty medium. This study is carried out by assuming the Rayleigh number small and the validity of Darcy-s law. Analytical expressions for both phases are obtained for second order mean in both velocity and temperature fields and evolution of different wave patterns are observed in the fluctuating part. It has been observed that, at the vicinity of the origin, the second order mean flow is influenced only by relaxation time of dust particles and not by dust concentration.

Keywords: Pulsating point heat source, azimuthal velocity, porous dusty medium, Darcy's law.

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Authors: P. Adibi, M. R. Ansari, S. Jafari, B. Habibpour, E. Salimi

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In this paper, the effect of gas and liquid superficial inlet velocities and for the first time the effect of liquid holdup on slug initiation position are studied experimentally. Empirical correlations are also presented based on the obtained results. The tests are conducted for three liquid holdups in a long horizontal channel with dimensions of 5cm10cm and 36m length. Usl and Usg rated as to 0.11m/s to 0.56m/s and 1.88m/s to 13m/s, respectively. The obtained results show that as αl=0.25, slug initiation position is increasing monotonically with Usl and Usg. During αl=0.50, slug initiation position is almost constant. For αl=0.75, slug initiation position is decreasing monotonically with Usl and Usg. In the case of equal void fraction of phases, generated slugs are weakly (low pressure). However, for the unequal void fraction of phases strong slugs (high pressure) are formed.

Keywords: Liquid holdup, Long horizontal channel, Slug initiation position, Superficial inlet velocity.

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Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

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This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis.

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Authors: M. Takhtravanchi, C. Pathirage

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In the construction industry, project members are conveyor of project knowledge which is, often, not managed properly to be used in future projects. As construction projects are temporary and unique, project members are willing to be recruited once a project is completed. Therefore, poor management of knowledge across construction projects will lead to a considerable amount of knowledge loss; the ignoring of which would be detrimental to project performance. This issue is more prominent in projects undertaken through the traditional procurement system, as this system does not incentives project members for integration. Thus, disputes exist between the design and construction phases based on the poor management of knowledge between those two phases. This paper aims to highlight the challenges of the knowledge management that exists within the traditional procurement system. Expert interviews were conducted and challenges were identified and analysed by the Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach in order to summarise the relationships among them. Two identified key challenges are the Culture of an Organisation and Knowledge Management Policies. A knowledge of the challenges and their relationships will help project manager and stakeholders to have a better understanding of the importance of knowledge management.

Keywords: Challenges, construction industry, knowledge management, traditional procurement system.

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Authors: Michele Sinico

Abstract:

The psychological present has an actual extension. When a sequence of instantaneous stimuli falls in this short interval of time, observers perceive a compresence of events in succession and the temporal order depends on the qualitative relationships between the perceptual properties of the events. Two experiments were carried out to study the influence of perceptual grouping, with and without temporal displacement, on the duration of auditory sequences. The psychophysical method of adjustment was adopted. The first experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement of a white noise on sequence duration. The second experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement, along the pitch dimension, on temporal shortening of sequence. The results suggest that the temporal order of sounds, in the case of temporal displacement, is organized along the pitch dimension.

Keywords: Time perception, perceptual present, temporal displacement, gestalt laws of perceptual organization

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Authors: Anju Luthra, Rajender Lal, Dhananjoy Shaw

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Participation in games and sports in the contemporary times has become more competing with the developed scientific knowledge, skills and methods, along with the equipment and applied research in the field. In spite of India being a large country having vast resources and potential, its performance in the world of sports on the whole needs sincere attention for better achievements. Beside numerous factors responsible for the dismal performance of a sportsperson, the physique and body composition, including the size, shape and form are known to play a significant role. The present investigation was undertaken to study the specific morphological characteristics of Indian female Track and Field athletes. A total of 300 athletes were randomly selected as sample for the purpose of the study from the six events having 50 athletes in each event including 100m., 400m., Shot Put, Discus Throw, Long Jump and High Jump. The study included body weight, body fat percentage, lean body weight, endomorphy, mesomorphy and ectomorphy as variables. The data were computed statistically by using Mean, Standard Deviation and Analysis of Variance. The post-hoc analysis was conducted where the F-ratio was found to be significant at .05 level. The study concluded that there is a significant difference with regard to the selected variables among the Indian female athletes of different track and field events.

Keywords: Indian female athletes, body composition, morphology, somatotypes, track and field.

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Authors: Guanhao Tong, Li Li, Ben David

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This study aims to provide an explanatory account of how the leisure tourist experience emerges from tourists and their surroundings through a critical realist lens. This was achieved by applying Archer’s realist social theory as the underlying theoretical ground to unpack the interplays between the external (tourism system or structure) and the internal (tourists or agency) factors. This theory argues that social phenomena can be analysed in three domains - structure, agency, and culture (SAC), and along three phases – structure conditioning, sociocultural interactions, and structure elaboration. From the realist perspective, the world is an open system; events and discourses are irreducible to present individuals and collectivities. Therefore, identifying the processes or mechanisms is key to help researchers understand how social reality is brought about. Based on the contextual nature of the tourist experience, the research focuses on Chinese tourists (from mainland China) to London as a destination and British culture conveyed through the concept of the destination image. This study uses an intensive approach based on Archer’s M/M approach to discover the mechanisms/processes of the emergence of the tourist experience. Individual interviews were conducted to reveal the underlying causes of lived experiences of the tourists. Secondary data were also collected to understand how British destinations are portrayed to Chinese tourists.

Keywords: Chinese Tourists, Destination Image, M/M Approach, Realist Social Theory, social mechanisms, tourist experience.

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall.

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Authors: Giorgi Bregadze

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Tourism is the most viable and sustainable economic development option for Georgia and one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Events are considered as one of the most effective ways to attract foreign visitors to the country, and, recently, the government of Georgia has begun investing in this sector very actively. This article stresses the necessity of research based economic policy in the tourism sector. In this regard, it is of paramount importance to measure the economic effects of the events which are subsidized by taxpayers’ money. The economic effect of events can be analyzed from two perspectives; financial perspective of the government and perspective of economic effects of the tourism administration. The article emphasizes more realistic and all-inclusive focus of the economic effect analysis of the tourism administration as it concentrates on the income of residents and local businesses, part of which generate tax revenues for the government. The public would like to know what the economic returns to investment are. In this article, the methodology used to describe the economic effects of UEFA Super Cup held in Tbilisi, will help to answer this question. Methodology is based on three main principles and covers three stages. Using the suggested methodology article estimates the direct economic effect of UEFA Super cup on Georgian economy. Although the attempt to make an economic effect analysis of the event was successful in Georgia, some obstacles and insufficiencies were identified during the survey. The article offers several recommendations that will help to refine methodology and improve the accuracy of the data. Furthermore, it is very important to receive the correct standard of measurement of events in Georgia. In this caseü non-ethical acts of measurement which are widely utilized by different research companies will not trigger others to show overestimated effects. It is worth mentioning that to author’s best knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the economic effect of an event held in Georgia.

Keywords: Biased economic effect analysis, expenditure of local citizens, time switchers and casuals, UEFA super cup.

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Authors: Hossein Morshedlou, Ahmad Abdollahzade Barforoush

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Recent developments in storage technology and networking architectures have made it possible for broad areas of applications to rely on data streams for quick response and accurate decision making. Data streams are generated from events of real world so existence of associations, which are among the occurrence of these events in real world, among concepts of data streams is logical. Extraction of these hidden associations can be useful for prediction of subsequent concepts in concept shifting data streams. In this paper we present a new method for learning association among concepts of data stream and prediction of what the next concept will be. Knowing the next concept, an informed update of data model will be possible. The results of conducted experiments show that the proposed method is proper for classification of concept shifting data streams.

Keywords: Data Stream, Classification, Concept Shift, History.

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Authors: Cláudio Santos, Madalena Araújo, Nuno Correia

Abstract:

The inherent complexity in nowadays- business environments is forcing organizations to be attentive to the dynamics in several fronts. Therefore, the management of technological innovation is continually faced with uncertainty about the future. These issues lead to a need for a systemic perspective, able to analyze the consequences of interactions between different factors. The field of technology foresight has proposed methods and tools to deal with this broader perspective. In an attempt to provide a method to analyze the complex interactions between events in several areas, departing from the identification of the most strategic competencies, this paper presents a methodology based on the Delphi method and Quality Function Deployment. This methodology is applied in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer, as a case study.

Keywords: Competencies, Delphi Method, Quality Function Deployment, Technology Foresight.

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