Search results for: parameter uncertainty.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1441

Search results for: parameter uncertainty.

1381 Representing Uncertainty in Computer-Generated Forces

Authors: Ruibiao J. Guo, Brad Cain, Pierre Meunier

Abstract:

The Integrated Performance Modelling Environment (IPME) is a powerful simulation engine for task simulation and performance analysis. However, it has no high level cognition such as memory and reasoning for complex simulation. This article introduces a knowledge representation and reasoning scheme that can accommodate uncertainty in simulations of military personnel with IPME. This approach demonstrates how advanced reasoning models that support similarity-based associative process, rule-based abstract process, multiple reasoning methods and real-time interaction can be integrated with conventional task network modelling to provide greater functionality and flexibility when modelling operator performance.

Keywords: Computer-Generated Forces, Human Behaviour Representation, IPME, Modelling and Simulation, Uncertainty Reasoning

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1380 Frequency-Variation Based Method for Parameter Estimation of Transistor Amplifier

Authors: Akash Rathee, Harish Parthasarathy

Abstract:

In this paper, a frequency-variation based method has been proposed for transistor parameter estimation in a commonemitter transistor amplifier circuit. We design an algorithm to estimate the transistor parameters, based on noisy measurements of the output voltage when the input voltage is a sine wave of variable frequency and constant amplitude. The common emitter amplifier circuit has been modelled using the transistor Ebers-Moll equations and the perturbation technique has been used for separating the linear and nonlinear parts of the Ebers-Moll equations. This model of the amplifier has been used to determine the amplitude of the output sinusoid as a function of the frequency and the parameter vector. Then, applying the proposed method to the frequency components, the transistor parameters have been estimated. As compared to the conventional time-domain least squares method, the proposed method requires much less data storage and it results in more accurate parameter estimation, as it exploits the information in the time and frequency domain, simultaneously. The proposed method can be utilized for parameter estimation of an analog device in its operating range of frequencies, as it uses data collected from different frequencies output signals for parameter estimation.

Keywords: Perturbation Technique, Parameter estimation, frequency-variation based method.

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1379 Second Order Admissibilities in Multi-parameter Logistic Regression Model

Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi

Abstract:

In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.

Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.

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1378 Unsteady Flow of an Incompressible Viscous Electrically Conducting Fluid in Tube of Elliptical Cross Section under the Influence of Magnetic Field

Authors: Sanjay Baburao Kulkarni

Abstract:

Exact solution of an unsteady flow of elastico-viscous electrically conducting fluid through a porous media in a tube of elliptical cross section under the influence of constant pressure gradient and magnetic field has been obtained in this paper. Initially, the flow is generated by a constant pressure gradient. After attaining the steady state, the pressure gradient is suddenly withdrawn and the resulting fluid motion in a tube of elliptical cross section by taking into account of the transverse magnetic field and porosity factor of the bounding surface is investigated. The problem is solved in twostages the first stage is a steady motion in tube under the influence of a constant pressure gradient, the second stage concern with an unsteady motion. The problem is solved employing separation of variables technique. The results are expressed in terms of a nondimensional porosity parameter (K), magnetic parameter (m) and elastico-viscosity parameter (β), which depends on the Non- Newtonian coefficient. The flow parameters are found to be identical with that of Newtonian case as elastic-viscosity parameter and magnetic parameter tends to zero and porosity tends to infinity. It is seen that the effect of elastico-viscosity parameter, magnetic parameter and the porosity parameter of the bounding surface has significant effect on the velocity parameter.

Keywords: Elastico-viscous fluid, Elliptic cross-section, Porous media, Second order fluids.

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1377 Dispersion of a Solute in Peristaltic Motion of a Couple Stress Fluid through a Porous Medium with Slip Condition

Authors: Habtu Alemayehu, G. Radhakrishnamacharya

Abstract:

The paper presents an analytical solution for dispersion of a solute in the peristaltic motion of a couple stress fluid through a porous medium with slip condition in the presence of both homogeneous and heterogeneous chemical reactions. The average effective dispersion coefficient has been found using Taylor-s limiting condition and long wavelength approximation. The effects of various relevant parameters on the average coefficient of dispersion have been studied. The average effective dispersion coefficient tends to increase with permeability parameter but tends to decrease with homogeneous chemical reaction rate parameter, couple stress parameter, slip parameter and heterogeneous reaction rate parameter.

Keywords: Dispersion, Peristalsis, Couple stress fluid, Porousmedium, Chemical reaction, Slip condition.

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1376 Second Order Statistics of Dynamic Response of Structures Using Gamma Distributed Damping Parameters

Authors: B. Chemali, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: Correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response.

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1375 Effect of Birks Constant and Defocusing Parameter on Triple-to-Double Coincidence Ratio Parameter in Monte Carlo Simulation-GEANT4

Authors: F. Abubaker, F. Tortorici, M. Capogni, C. Sutera, V. Bellini

Abstract:

This project concerns with the detection efficiency of the portable Triple-to-Double Coincidence Ratio (TDCR) at the National Institute of Metrology of Ionizing Radiation (INMRI-ENEA) which allows direct activity measurement and radionuclide standardization for pure-beta emitter or pure electron capture radionuclides. The dependency of the simulated detection efficiency of the TDCR, by using Monte Carlo simulation Geant4 code, on the Birks factor (kB) and defocusing parameter has been examined especially for low energy beta-emitter radionuclides such as 3H and 14C, for which this dependency is relevant. The results achieved in this analysis can be used for selecting the best kB factor and the defocusing parameter for computing theoretical TDCR parameter value. The theoretical results were compared with the available ones, measured by the ENEA TDCR portable detector, for some pure-beta emitter radionuclides. This analysis allowed to improve the knowledge of the characteristics of the ENEA TDCR detector that can be used as a traveling instrument for in-situ measurements with particular benefits in many applications in the field of nuclear medicine and in the nuclear energy industry.

Keywords: Birks constant, defocusing parameter, GEANT4 code, TDCR parameter.

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1374 Two New Relative Efficiencies of Linear Weighted Regression

Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In statistics parameter theory, usually the parameter estimations have two kinds, one is the least-square estimation (LSE), and the other is the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE). Due to the determining theorem of minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), the parameter estimation of BLUE in linear model is most ideal. But since the calculations are complicated or the covariance is not given, people are hardly to get the solution. Therefore, people prefer to use LSE rather than BLUE. And this substitution will take some losses. To quantize the losses, many scholars have presented many kinds of different relative efficiencies in different views. For the linear weighted regression model, this paper discusses the relative efficiencies of LSE of β to BLUE of β. It also defines two new relative efficiencies and gives their lower bounds.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Lower bound, Parameter estimation.

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1373 A Novel Multiresolution based Optimization Scheme for Robust Affine Parameter Estimation

Authors: J.Dinesh Peter

Abstract:

This paper describes a new method for affine parameter estimation between image sequences. Usually, the parameter estimation techniques can be done by least squares in a quadratic way. However, this technique can be sensitive to the presence of outliers. Therefore, parameter estimation techniques for various image processing applications are robust enough to withstand the influence of outliers. Progressively, some robust estimation functions demanding non-quadratic and perhaps non-convex potentials adopted from statistics literature have been used for solving these. Addressing the optimization of the error function in a factual framework for finding a global optimal solution, the minimization can begin with the convex estimator at the coarser level and gradually introduce nonconvexity i.e., from soft to hard redescending non-convex estimators when the iteration reaches finer level of multiresolution pyramid. Comparison has been made to find the performance of the results of proposed method with the results found individually using two different estimators.

Keywords: Image Processing, Affine parameter estimation, Outliers, Robust Statistics, Robust M-estimators

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1372 The Pitch Diameter of Pipe Taper Thread Measurement and Uncertainty Using Three-Wire Probe

Authors: J. Kloypayan, W. Pimpakan

Abstract:

The pipe taper thread measurement and uncertainty  normally used the four-wire probe according to the JIS B 0262.  Besides, according to the EA-10/10 standard, the pipe thread could be  measured using the three-wire probe. This research proposed to use  the three-wire probe measuring the pitch diameter of the pipe taper  thread. The measuring accessory component was designed and made,  then, assembled to one side of the ULM 828 CiM machine.  Therefore, this machine could be used to measure and calibrate both  the pipe thread and the pipe taper thread. The equations and the  expanded uncertainty for pitch diameter measurement were  formulated. After the experiment, the results showed that the pipe  taper thread had the pitch diameter equal to 19.165mm and the  expanded uncertainty equal to 1.88µm. Then, the experiment results  were compared to the results from the National Institute of Metrology  Thailand. The equivalence ratio from the comparison showed that  both results were related. Thus, the proposed method of using the  three-wire probe measured the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread  was acceptable.

Keywords: Pipe taper thread, Three-wire probe, Measure and Calibration, The Universal length measuring machine.

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1371 A Black-Box Approach in Modeling Valve Stiction

Authors: H. Zabiri, N. Mazuki

Abstract:

Several valve stiction models have been proposed in the literature to help understand and study the behavior of sticky valves. In this paper, an alternative black-box modeling approach based on Neural Network (NN) is presented. It is shown that with proper network type and optimum model structures, the performance of the developed NN stiction model is comparable to other established method. The resulting NN model is also tested for its robustness against the uncertainty in the stiction parameter values. Predictive mode operation also shows excellent performance of the proposed model for multi-steps ahead prediction.

Keywords: Control valve stiction, neural network, modeling.

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1370 A Calibration Approach towards Reducing ASM2d Parameter Subsets in Phosphorus Removal Processes

Authors: N.Boontian

Abstract:

A novel calibration approach that aims to reduce ASM2d parameter subsets and decrease the model complexity is presented. This approach does not require high computational demand and reduces the number of modeling parameters required to achieve the ASMs calibration by employing a sensitivity and iteration methodology. Parameter sensitivity is a crucial factor and the iteration methodology enables refinement of the simulation parameter values. When completing the iteration process, parameters values are determined in descending order of their sensitivities. The number of iterations required is equal to the number of model parameters of the parameter significance ranking. This approach was used for the ASM2d model to the evaluated EBPR phosphorus removal and it was successful. Results of the simulation provide calibration parameters. These included YPAO, YPO4, YPHA, qPHA, qPP, μPAO, bPAO, bPP, bPHA, KPS, YA, μAUT, bAUT, KO2 AUT, and KNH4 AUT. Those parameters were corresponding to the experimental data available.

Keywords: ASM2d, calibration approach, iteration methodology, sensitivity, phosphorus removal

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1369 Enhanced Efficacy of Kinetic Power Transform for High-Speed Wind Field

Authors: Nan-Chyuan Tsai, Chao-Wen Chiang, Bai-Lu Wang

Abstract:

The three-time-scale plant model of a wind power generator, including a wind turbine, a flexible vertical shaft, a Variable Inertia Flywheel (VIF) module, an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB) unit and the applied wind sequence, is constructed. In order to make the wind power generator be still able to operate as the spindle speed exceeds its rated speed, the VIF is equipped so that the spindle speed can be appropriately slowed down once any stronger wind field is exerted. To prevent any potential damage due to collision by shaft against conventional bearings, the AMB unit is proposed to regulate the shaft position deviation. By singular perturbation order-reduction technique, a lower-order plant model can be established for the synthesis of feedback controller. Two major system parameter uncertainties, an additive uncertainty and a multiplicative uncertainty, are constituted by the wind turbine and the VIF respectively. Frequency Shaping Sliding Mode Control (FSSMC) loop is proposed to account for these uncertainties and suppress the unmodeled higher-order plant dynamics. At last, the efficacy of the FSSMC is verified by intensive computer and experimental simulations for regulation on position deviation of the shaft and counter-balance of unpredictable wind disturbance.

Keywords: Sliding Mode Control, Singular Perturbation, Variable Inertia Flywheel.

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1368 Efficient Signal Detection Using QRD-M Based On Channel Condition in MIMO-OFDM System

Authors: Jae-Jeong Kim, Ki-Ro Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an efficient signal detector that switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme is proposed for MIMO-OFDM system. The proposed detection scheme calculates the threshold by 1-norm condition number and then switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme according to channel information. If channel condition is bad, the parameter M is set to high value to increase the accuracy of detection. If channel condition is good, the parameter M is set to low value to reduce complexity of detection. Therefore, the proposed detection scheme has better tradeoff between BER performance and complexity than the conventional detection scheme. The simulation result shows that the complexity of proposed detection scheme is lower than QRD-M detection scheme with similar BER performance.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, QRD-M, Channel condition.

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1367 Kernel’s Parameter Selection for Support Vector Domain Description

Authors: Mohamed EL Boujnouni, Mohamed Jedra, Noureddine Zahid

Abstract:

Support Vector Domain Description (SVDD) is one of the best-known one-class support vector learning methods, in which one tries the strategy of using balls defined on the feature space in order to distinguish a set of normal data from all other possible abnormal objects. As all kernel-based learning algorithms its performance depends heavily on the proper choice of the kernel parameter. This paper proposes a new approach to select kernel's parameter based on maximizing the distance between both gravity centers of normal and abnormal classes, and at the same time minimizing the variance within each class. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on several benchmarks. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: Gravity centers, Kernel’s parameter, Support Vector Domain Description, Variance.

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1366 Role of Investment in the Course of Economic Growth in Pakistan

Authors: Maqbool Hussain Sial, Maaida Hussain Hashmi, Sofia Anwar

Abstract:

The present research was focused to investigate the role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth. There was a positive relationship found between economic uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.

Keywords: Investment, Government Consumption, Growth, Co-integration, Pakistan.

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1365 Method for Determining the Probing Points for Efficient Measurement of Freeform Surface

Authors: Yi Xu, Zexiang Li

Abstract:

In inspection and workpiece localization, sampling point data is an important issue. Since the devices for sampling only sample discrete points, not the completely surface, sampling size and location of the points will be taken into consideration. In this paper a method is presented for determining the sampled points size and location for achieving efficient sampling. Firstly, uncertainty analysis of the localization parameters is investigated. A localization uncertainty model is developed to predict the uncertainty of the localization process. Using this model the minimum size of the sampled points is predicted. Secondly, based on the algebra theory an eigenvalue-optimal optimization is proposed. Then a freeform surface is used in the simulation. The proposed optimization is implemented. The simulation result shows its effectivity.

Keywords: eigenvalue-optimal optimization, freeform surface inspection, sampling size and location, sampled points.

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1364 Unsteady Natural Convection Heat and Mass Transfer of Non-Newtonian Casson Fluid along a Vertical Wavy Surface

Authors: A. Mahdy, Sameh E. Ahmed

Abstract:

Detailed numerical calculations are illustrated in our investigation for unsteady natural convection heat and mass transfer of non-Newtonian Casson fluid along a vertical wavy surface. The surface of the plate is kept at a constant temperature and uniform concentration. To transform the complex wavy surface to a flat plate, a simple coordinate transformation is employed. The resulting partial differential equations are solved using the fully implicit finite difference method with SUR procedure. Flow and heat transfer characteristics are investigated for a wide range of values of the Casson parameter, the dimensionless time parameter, the buoyancy ratio and the amplitude-wavelength parameter. It is found that, the variations of the Casson parameter have significant effects on the fluid motion, heat and mass transfer. Also, the maximum and minimum values of the local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers increase by increase either the Casson parameter or the buoyancy ratio.

Keywords: Casson fluid, wavy surface, mass transfer, transient analysis.

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1363 Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Water Turbidity

Authors: Chia-Ling Chang, Chung-Sheng Liao

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the discussion over the parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN. When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), sensitivity analysis, turbidity.

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1362 Dynamic Slope Scaling Procedure for Stochastic Integer Programming Problem

Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

Mathematical programming has been applied to various problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented as random variables, since they represent information about the future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk. Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful for a variety of design and operational problems.

Keywords: stochastic programming problem with recourse, simple integer recourse, dynamic slope scaling procedure

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1361 Radiation Effects on the Unsteady MHD Free Convection Flow Past in an Infinite Vertical Plate with Heat Source

Authors: Tusharkanta Das, Tumbanath Samantara, Sukanta Kumar Sahoo

Abstract:

Unsteady effects of MHD free convection flow past in an infinite vertical plate with heat source in presence of radiation with reference to all critical parameters that appear in field equations are studied in this paper. The governing equations are developed by usual Boussinesq’s approximation. The problem is solved by using perturbation technique. The results are obtained for velocity, temperature, Nusselt number and skin-friction. The effects of magnetic parameter, prandtl number, Grashof number, permeability parameter, heat source/sink parameter and radiation parameter are discussed on flow characteristics and shown by means of graphs and tables.

Keywords: Heat transfer, radiation, MHD, free convection, porous medium, suction.

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1360 Formulating the Stochastic Finite Elements for Free Vibration Analysis of Plates with Variable Elastic Modulus

Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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1359 Affine Projection Adaptive Filter with Variable Regularization

Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

We propose two affine projection algorithms (APA) with variable regularization parameter. The proposed algorithms dynamically update the regularization parameter that is fixed in the conventional regularized APA (R-APA) using a gradient descent based approach. By introducing the normalized gradient, the proposed algorithms give birth to an efficient and a robust update scheme for the regularization parameter. Through experiments we demonstrate that the proposed algorithms outperform conventional R-APA in terms of the convergence rate and the misadjustment error.

Keywords: Affine projection, regularization, gradient descent, system identification.

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1358 Comparison of the Parameter using ECG with Bisepctrum Parameter using EEG during General Anesthesia

Authors: Seong-wan Baik, Soo-young Ye, Byeong-cheol Choi, Gye-rok Jeon

Abstract:

The measurement of anesthetic depth is necessary in anesthesiology. NN10 is very simple method among the RR intervals analysis methods. NN10 parameter means the numbers of above the 10 ms intervals of the normal to normal RR intervals. Bispectrum analysis is defined as 2D FFT. EEG signal reflected the non-linear peristalsis phenomena according to the change brain function. After analyzing the bispectrum of the 2 dimension, the most significant power spectrum density peaks appeared abundantly at the specific area in awakening and anesthesia state. These points are utilized to create the new index since many peaks appeared at the specific area in the frequency coordinate. The measured range of an index was 0-100. An index is 20-50 at an anesthesia, while the index is 90-60 at the awake. In this paper, the relation between NN10 parameter using ECG and bisepctrum index using EEG is observed to estimate the depth of anesthesia during anesthesia and then we estimated the utility of the anesthetic.

Keywords: Anesthesia, Bispectrum index, ECG, EEG

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1357 A Two-Stage Expert System for Diagnosis of Leukemia Based on Type-2 Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Ali Akbar Sadat Asl

Abstract:

Diagnosis and deciding about diseases in medical fields is facing innate uncertainty which can affect the whole process of treatment. This decision is made based on expert knowledge and the way in which an expert interprets the patient's condition, and the interpretation of the various experts from the patient's condition may be different. Fuzzy logic can provide mathematical modeling for many concepts, variables, and systems that are unclear and ambiguous and also it can provide a framework for reasoning, inference, control, and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. In systems with high uncertainty and high complexity, fuzzy logic is a suitable method for modeling. In this paper, we use type-2 fuzzy logic for uncertainty modeling that is in diagnosis of leukemia. The proposed system uses an indirect-direct approach and consists of two stages: In the first stage, the inference of blood test state is determined. In this step, we use an indirect approach where the rules are extracted automatically by implementing a clustering approach. In the second stage, signs of leukemia, duration of disease until its progress and the output of the first stage are combined and the final diagnosis of the system is obtained. In this stage, the system uses a direct approach and final diagnosis is determined by the expert. The obtained results show that the type-2 fuzzy expert system can diagnose leukemia with the average accuracy about 97%.

Keywords: Expert system, leukemia, medical diagnosis, type-2 fuzzy logic.

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1356 An Estimating Parameter of the Mean in Normal Distribution by Maximum Likelihood, Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, Maximum Likelihood method, normal distribution.

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1355 Effects of Level Densities and Those of a-Parameter in the Framework of Preequilibrium Model for 63,65Cu(n,xp) Reactions in Neutrons at 9 to 15 MeV

Authors: L. Yettou

Abstract:

In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by 63Cu(n,xp) and 65Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.

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1354 Conjugate Heat transfer over an Unsteady Stretching Sheet Mixed Convection with Magnetic Effect

Authors: Kai-Long Hsiao

Abstract:

A conjugate heat transfer for steady two-dimensional mixed convection with magnetic hydrodynamic (MHD) flow of an incompressible quiescent fluid over an unsteady thermal forming stretching sheet has been studied. A parameter, M, which is used to represent the dominance of the magnetic effect has been presented in governing equations. The similar transformation and an implicit finite-difference method have been used to analyze the present problem. The numerical solutions of the flow velocity distributions, temperature profiles, the wall unknown values of f''(0) and '(θ (0) for calculating the heat transfer of the similar boundary-layer flow are carried out as functions of the unsteadiness parameter (S), the Prandtl number (Pr), the space-dependent parameter (A) and temperature-dependent parameter (B) for heat source/sink and the magnetic parameter (M). The effects of these parameters have also discussed. At the results, it will produce greater heat transfer effect with a larger Pr and M, S, A, B will reduce heat transfer effects. At last, conjugate heat transfer for the free convection with a larger G has a good heat transfer effect better than a smaller G=0.

Keywords: Finite-difference method, Conjugate heat transfer, Unsteady Stretching Sheet, MHD, Mixed convection.

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1353 A Robust Optimization Model for the Single-Depot Capacitated Location-Routing Problem

Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

Abstract:

In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

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1352 Influence of the Entropic Parameter on the Flow Geometry and Morphology

Authors: D. Mirauda, M. Greco, A. Volpe Plantamura

Abstract:

The necessity of updating the numerical models inputs, because of geometrical and resistive variations in rivers subject to solid transport phenomena, requires detailed control and monitoring activities. The human employment and financial resources of these activities moves the research towards the development of expeditive methodologies, able to evaluate the outflows through the measurement of more easily acquirable sizes. Recent studies highlighted the dependence of the entropic parameter on the kinematical and geometrical flow conditions. They showed a meaningful variability according to the section shape, dimension and slope. Such dependences, even if not yet well defined, could reduce the difficulties during the field activities, and also the data elaboration time. On the basis of such evidences, the relationships between the entropic parameter and the geometrical and resistive sizes, obtained through a large and detailed laboratory experience on steady free surface flows in conditions of macro and intermediate homogeneous roughness, are analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Froude number, entropic parameter, roughness, water discharge.

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