Search results for: Service Model.

Authors: David Lávicka

Abstract:

This paper looks into detailed investigation of thermal-hydraulic characteristics of the flow field in a fuel rod model, especially near the spacer. The area investigate represents a source of information on the velocity flow field, vortex, and on the amount of heat transfer into the coolant all of which are critical for the design and improvement of the fuel rod in nuclear power plants. The flow field investigation uses three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with the Reynolds stresses turbulence model (RSM). The fuel rod model incorporates a vertical annular channel where three different shapes of spacers are used; each spacer shape is addressed individually. These spacers are mutually compared in consideration of heat transfer capabilities between the coolant and the fuel rod model. The results are complemented with the calculated heat transfer coefficient in the location of the spacer and along the stainless-steel pipe.

Keywords: CFD, fuel rod model, heat transfer, spacer

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: Causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

Abstract:

Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

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Authors: Anirudha Narain, Dinesh Chandra, Ravindra K. S.

Abstract:

A computationally simple approach of model order reduction for single input single output (SISO) and linear timeinvariant discrete systems modeled in frequency domain is proposed in this paper. Denominator of the reduced order model is determined using fuzzy C-means clustering while the numerator parameters are found by matching time moments and Markov parameters of high order system.

Keywords: Model Order reduction, Discrete-time system, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Padé approximation.

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Authors: M. S. R. Waas, S. G. U. S. Chandrarathne, U. A. Kumara

Abstract:

The purpose of this quantitative study is to identify the impact of the destination attributes of Negombo on the coastal tourists’ visitor experience. As an island nation, Sri Lanka is identified and well renowned for its gold sandy beaches and natural scenic beauty. Among many tourist attractions, Negombo is identified as a developed beach centric tourist destination in the country. Yet, it is identified that there are low positive reviews on the internet for Negombo compared to other beach centric tourist attractions in Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study would help the policymakers and tourism service providers to identify the impact of destination attributes on international visitor satisfaction and to understand the visitors comprehensively so as to develop Negombo as a stable tourist destination while offering a memorable and satisfying experience for its visitors. In support, a self-administered questionnaire survey study was performed with 150 respondents (international tourists) in Negombo. The questions were designed based on the selected dimensions of destination attributes such as tourism service quality, infrastructure and superstructure developments, tourist information facilities and destination aesthetics and developments. The results showed that the overall satisfaction level of the international tourists who visit Sri Lanka is significantly affected by the destination attributes of Negombo. Yet, the dimensions of destination aesthetics and developments and tourist information facilities indicated a low level of mean satisfaction, paving the critique that Negombo as a beach centric tourist attraction is not serving well with its natural beauty and its destination management. Further, it is advocated that the policymakers and tourism service providers have a significant role in leading the way to attract more potential visitors to enhance their destination satisfaction and to encourage them to revisit Sri Lanka while recommending it to others. The survey was done during the off-peak season of the industry and it is suggested that the survey would have been conducted throughout a complete year.

Keywords: Destination attributes, coastal tourism, tourism development, tourist satisfaction.

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Authors: Dong-Hyun Kim, Jin-Woong Choi, Hyeong-Yeol Kim, Sun-Kyu Park

Abstract:

This study is to evaluate the behavior of integral and segmental specimens through static and cyclic tests. Integral specimens were made with the same size to be compared with segmental specimens that were made by connected precast members. To evaluate its bending performance and serviceability, 1 integral and 3 segmental specimens were tested under static load. And 1 integral and 2 segmental specimens were tested under cyclic load, respectively. Different load ranges were considered in the cyclic tests to evaluate the safety and serviceability. The test results showed that under static loading, segmental specimens had about 94% of the integral specimen's maximum moment, averagely. Under cyclic loading, the segmental specimens showed that had enough safety in the range of higher than service load and enough serviceability. In conclusion, the maximum crack width (0.16mm) satisfied the allowable crack width (0.30mm) in the range of service load.

Keywords: Modular bridge, Transverse connection, Precast concrete, Static and cyclic test.

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Authors: Amer Momani, Tarek Al-Hawari, Abdallah Alakayleh

Abstract:

This study explains how to construct an actionable activity-based costing and management system to accurately track and account the total costs of architectural aluminum projects. Two Activity-Based Costing (ABC) models were proposed to accomplish this purpose. First, the learning and development model was introduced to examine how to apply an ABC model in an architectural aluminum firm for the first time and to be familiar with ABC concepts. Second, an actual ABC model was built on the basis of the results of the previous model to accurately trace the actual costs incurred on each project in a year, and to be able to provide a quote with the best trade-off between competitiveness and profitability. The validity of the proposed model was verified on a local architectural aluminum company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, activity-based management, construction, architectural aluminum.

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Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

Abstract:

This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

Abstract:

This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision –making.

Keywords: Ecosystem model, Environmental security, Fuzzy logic, Sustainability of habitable regions.

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Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

Abstract:

Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Hypromellose, gliclazide, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

Abstract:

Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from ¹¹B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of ³He+¹¹B nuclear system at different ³He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (J_R, J_W) have been calculated for ³He+¹¹B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor N_r is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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Authors: Nantapanuwat Nattapol, Ractham Peter, Kaewkittipong Laddawan

Abstract:

The efficient knowledge management system (KMS) is one of the important strategies to help firms to achieve sustainable competitive advantages, but little research has been conducted to understand what contributes to the KMS success. This study thus set to investigate the determinants of KMS success in the context of Thai banking industry. A questionnaire survey was conducted in four major Thai Banks to test the proposed KMS Success model. The result of this study shows that KMS use and user satisfaction relate significantly to the success of KMS, and knowledge quality, service quality and trust lead to system use, and knowledge quality, system quality and trust lead to user satisfaction. However, this research focuses only on system and user-related factors. Future research thus can extend to study factors such as management support and organization readiness.

Keywords: Knowledge, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Management system, Knowledge Management System Success, Banking Industry, Thailand

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

Abstract:

The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

Abstract:

User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

Abstract:

In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: Wanghongshu Zhou

Abstract:

This study aims to explore the relationship between the second language motivational self-system (L2MSS) and the willingness to communicate (WTC) among Chinese non-English major students in order to provide pedagogical implications for English as a Foreign Language (EFL) classrooms in Chinese universities. By employing a mixed methods approach, we involved 103 Chinese non-English major students from a typical university in China, conducted questionnaire survey to measure their levels of L2WTC and L2MSS level, and then analyzed the correlation between the two above mentioned variables. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight participants to provide a deeper understanding and explanation of the questionnaire data. Findings show that 1) Chinese non-English major students’ ideal L2 self and L2 learning experience could positively predict their L2 WTC in EFL class; 2) Chinese non-English major students’ ought-to L2 self might have no significant impact on their L2 WTC in EFL class; and 3) self-confidence might be another main factor that will influence Chinese non-English major students’ L2 WTC in EFL class. These findings might shed light on the second language acquisition field and provide pedagogical recommendations for pre-service as well as in-service EFL teachers.

Keywords: Chinese non-English major students, L2 Motivation, L2 willingness to communicate, self-confidence.

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Authors: Paul Osmond

Abstract:

This paper reports a new application of material accounting techniques to characterise and quantify material stocks and flows at the “neighbourhood" scale. The study area is the main campus of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. The system boundary is defined by the urban structural unit (USU), a typological construct devised to facilitate assessment of the metabolism of urban systems. A streamlined material flow analysis (MFA) was applied to quantify the stocks and flows of key construction materials within the campus USU over time, drawing on empirical data from a major campus development project. The results are reviewed to assess the efficacy of the method in supporting urban environmental evaluation and design practice, for example to facilitate estimation of significant impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions. It is concluded that linking a service (in this case, teaching students) enabled by a given product (university buildings) to the amount of materials used in creating that product offers a potential way to reduce the environmental impact of that service, through more efficient use of materials.

Keywords: Construction materials, material flow analysis, urban metabolism, urban structural unit.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Daniel A. Montoya, Marta L. Tostes

Abstract:

This investigation aims at analyzing and determining the relation between two very important variables in the human resource management: The organizational climate and the performance assessment. This study aims at contributing with knowledge in the search of the relation between the mentioned variables because the literature still does not provide solid evidence to this respect and the cases revised are incipient to reach conclusions enabling a typology about this relation.To this regard, a correlational and cross-sectional perspective was adopted in which quantitative and qualitative techniques were chosen with the total of the workers of the tourist service company PTS Peru. In order to measure the organizational climate, the OCQ (Organization Climate Questionnaire) from was used; it has 50 items and measures 9 dimensions of the Organizational Climate. Also, to assess performance, a questionnaire with 21 items and 6 dimensions was designed. As a means of assessment, a focus group was prepared and was applied to a worker in every area of the company. Additionally, interviews to human resources experts were conducted. The results of the investigation show a clear relation between the organizational climate and the personnel performance assessment as well as a relation between the nine dimensions of the organizational climate and the work performance in general and with some of its dimensions.

Keywords: Job performance, human resource management, organization climate, performance assessment.

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Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

Abstract:

The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP), Finite element analysis (FEA), Pre-impregnated textile composite, Non-isothermal forming.

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Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

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The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Monetary Input-Output Model, Manufacturing Process, Laptop Computer.

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The nonlinear time history analysis of seismically base-isolated structures can require a significant computational effort when the behavior of each seismic isolator is predicted by adopting the widely used differential equation Bouc-Wen model. In this paper, a nonlinear exponential model, able to simulate the response of seismic isolation bearings within a relatively large displacements range, is described and adopted in order to reduce the numerical computations and speed up the nonlinear dynamic analysis. Compared to the Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one does not require the numerical solution of a nonlinear differential equation for each time step of the analysis. The seismic response of a 3d base-isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to harmonic earthquake excitation is simulated by modeling each isolator using the proposed analytical model. The comparison of the numerical results and computational time with those obtained by modeling the lead rubber bearings using the Bouc-Wen model demonstrates the good accuracy of the proposed model and its capability to reduce significantly the computational effort of the analysis.

Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, nonlinear exponential model, nonlinear time history analysis.

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Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

Abstract:

In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Prior research has not effectively investigated how the profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors, forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account of the profitability factors. The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive, as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion model, genetic algorithms, nonlinear leastsquares (NLS) model, prediction error.

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