Search results for: computational error
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2296

Search results for: computational error

1576 Maya Semantic Technique: A Mathematical Technique Used to Determine Partial Semantics for Declarative Sentences

Authors: Marcia T. Mitchell

Abstract:

This research uses computational linguistics, an area of study that employs a computer to process natural language, and aims at discerning the patterns that exist in declarative sentences used in technical texts. The approach is mathematical, and the focus is on instructional texts found on web pages. The technique developed by the author and named the MAYA Semantic Technique is used here and organized into four stages. In the first stage, the parts of speech in each sentence are identified. In the second stage, the subject of the sentence is determined. In the third stage, MAYA performs a frequency analysis on the remaining words to determine the verb and its object. In the fourth stage, MAYA does statistical analysis to determine the content of the web page. The advantage of the MAYA Semantic Technique lies in its use of mathematical principles to represent grammatical operations which assist processing and accuracy if performed on unambiguous text. The MAYA Semantic Technique is part of a proposed architecture for an entire web-based intelligent tutoring system. On a sample set of sentences, partial semantics derived using the MAYA Semantic Technique were approximately 80% accurate. The system currently processes technical text in one domain, namely Cµ programming. In this domain all the keywords and programming concepts are known and understood.

Keywords: Natural language understanding, computational linguistics, knowledge representation, linguistic theories.

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1575 Study of Heat Transfer in the Poly Ethylene Fluidized Bed Reactor Numerically and Experimentally

Authors: Mahdi Hamzehei

Abstract:

In this research, heat transfer of a poly Ethylene fluidized bed reactor without reaction were studied experimentally and computationally at different superficial gas velocities. A multifluid Eulerian computational model incorporating the kinetic theory for solid particles was developed and used to simulate the heat conducting gas–solid flows in a fluidized bed configuration. Momentum exchange coefficients were evaluated using the Syamlal– O-Brien drag functions. Temperature distributions of different phases in the reactor were also computed. Good agreement was found between the model predictions and the experimentally obtained data for the bed expansion ratio as well as the qualitative gas–solid flow patterns. The simulation and experimental results showed that the gas temperature decreases as it moves upward in the reactor, while the solid particle temperature increases. Pressure drop and temperature distribution predicted by the simulations were in good agreement with the experimental measurements at superficial gas velocities higher than the minimum fluidization velocity. Also, the predicted time-average local voidage profiles were in reasonable agreement with the experimental results. The study showed that the computational model was capable of predicting the heat transfer and the hydrodynamic behavior of gas-solid fluidized bed flows with reasonable accuracy.

Keywords: Gas-solid flows, fluidized bed, Hydrodynamics, Heat transfer, Turbulence model, CFD

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1574 Selective Harmonic Elimination of PWM AC/AC Voltage Controller Using Hybrid RGA-PS Approach

Authors: A. K. Al-Othman, Nabil A. Ahmed, A. M. Al-Kandari, H. K. Ebraheem

Abstract:

Selective harmonic elimination-pulse width modulation techniques offer a tight control of the harmonic spectrum of a given voltage waveform generated by a power electronic converter along with a low number of switching transitions. Traditional optimization methods suffer from various drawbacks, such as prolonged and tedious computational steps and convergence to local optima; thus, the more the number of harmonics to be eliminated, the larger the computational complexity and time. This paper presents a novel method for output voltage harmonic elimination and voltage control of PWM AC/AC voltage converters using the principle of hybrid Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm-Pattern Search (RGA-PS) method. RGA is the primary optimizer exploiting its global search capabilities, PS is then employed to fine tune the best solution provided by RGA in each evolution. The proposed method enables linear control of the fundamental component of the output voltage and complete elimination of its harmonic contents up to a specified order. Theoretical studies have been carried out to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method of selective harmonic elimination. Theoretical results are validated through simulation studies using PSIM software package.

Keywords: PWM, AC/AC voltage converters, selectiveharmonic elimination, direct search method, pattern search method, Real-coded Genetic algorithms, evolutionary algorithms andoptimization.

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1573 Comparison of Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm for TCSC-based Controller Design

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N. P. Padhy

Abstract:

Recently, genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. Since the two approaches are supposed to find a solution to a given objective function but employ different strategies and computational effort, it is appropriate to compare their performance. This paper presents the application and performance comparison of PSO and GA optimization techniques, for Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)-based controller design. The design objective is to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of the FACTS-based controller is formulated as an optimization problem and both the PSO and GA optimization techniques are employed to search for optimal controller parameters. The performance of both optimization techniques in terms of computational time and convergence rate is compared. Further, the optimized controllers are tested on a weakly connected power system subjected to different disturbances, and their performance is compared with the conventional power system stabilizer (CPSS). The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented and compared to show the effectiveness of both the techniques in designing a TCSC-based controller, to enhance power system stability.

Keywords: Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator, geneticalgorithm; particle swarm optimization; Phillips-Heffron model;power system stability.

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1572 Investigation of Bubble Growth during Nucleate Boiling Using CFD

Authors: K. Jagannath, Akhilesh Kotian, S. S. Sharma, Achutha Kini U., P. R. Prabhu

Abstract:

Boiling process is characterized by the rapid formation of vapour bubbles at the solid–liquid interface (nucleate boiling) with pre-existing vapour or gas pockets. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is an important tool to study bubble dynamics. In the present study, CFD simulation has been carried out to determine the bubble detachment diameter and its terminal velocity. Volume of fluid method is used to model the bubble and the surrounding by solving single set of momentum equations and tracking the volume fraction of each of the fluids throughout the domain. In the simulation, bubble is generated by allowing water-vapour to enter a cylinder filled with liquid water through an inlet at the bottom. After the bubble is fully formed, the bubble detaches from the surface and rises up during which the bubble accelerates due to the net balance between buoyancy force and viscous drag. Finally when these forces exactly balance each other, it attains a constant terminal velocity. The bubble detachment diameter and the terminal velocity of the bubble are captured by the monitor function provided in FLUENT. The detachment diameter and the terminal velocity obtained are compared with the established results based on the shape of the bubble. A good agreement is obtained between the results obtained from simulation and the equations in comparison with the established results.

Keywords: Bubble growth, computational fluid dynamics, detachment diameter, terminal velocity.

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1571 Multi-Factor Optimization Method through Machine Learning in Building Envelope Design: Focusing on Perforated Metal Façade

Authors: Jinwooung Kim, Jae-Hwan Jung, Seong-Jun Kim, Sung-Ah Kim

Abstract:

Because the building envelope has a significant impact on the operation and maintenance stage of the building, designing the facade considering the performance can improve the performance of the building and lower the maintenance cost of the building. In general, however, optimizing two or more performance factors confronts the limits of time and computational tools. The optimization phase typically repeats infinitely until a series of processes that generate alternatives and analyze the generated alternatives achieve the desired performance. In particular, as complex geometry or precision increases, computational resources and time are prohibitive to find the required performance, so an optimization methodology is needed to deal with this. Instead of directly analyzing all the alternatives in the optimization process, applying experimental techniques (heuristic method) learned through experimentation and experience can reduce resource waste. This study proposes and verifies a method to optimize the double envelope of a building composed of a perforated panel using machine learning to the design geometry and quantitative performance. The proposed method is to achieve the required performance with fewer resources by supplementing the existing method which cannot calculate the complex shape of the perforated panel.

Keywords: Building envelope, machine learning, perforated metal, multi-factor optimization, façade.

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1570 Identifying an Unknown Source in the Poisson Equation by a Modified Tikhonov Regularization Method

Authors: Ou Xie, Zhenyu Zhao

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the problem for identifying the unknown source in the Poisson equation. A modified Tikhonov regularization method is presented to deal with illposedness of the problem and error estimates are obtained with an a priori strategy and an a posteriori choice rule to find the regularization parameter. Numerical examples show that the proposed method is effective and stable.

Keywords: Ill-posed problem, Unknown source, Poisson equation, Tikhonov regularization method, Discrepancy principle

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1569 Adaptive Functional Projective Lag Synchronization of Lorenz System

Authors: Tae H. Lee, J.H. Park, S.M. Lee, H.Y. Jung

Abstract:

This paper addresses functional projective lag synchronization of Lorenz system with four unknown parameters, where the output of the master system lags behind the output of the slave system proportionally. For this purpose, an adaptive control law is proposed to make the states of two identical Lorenz systems asymptotically synchronize up. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, a novel criterion is given for asymptotical stability of the null solution of an error dynamics. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of our results.

Keywords: Adaptive function projective synchronization, Chaotic system, Lag synchronization, Lyapunov method

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1568 Combination Scheme of Affine Projection Algorithm Filters with Complementary Order

Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a complementary combination scheme of affine projection algorithm (APA) filters with different order of input regressors. A convex combination provides an interesting way to keep the advantage of APA having different order of input regressors. Consequently, a novel APA which has the rapid convergence and the reduced steady-state error is derived. Experimental results show the good properties of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive filter, affine projection algorithm, convex combination, input order.

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1567 H-ARQ Techniques for Wireless Systems with Punctured Non-Binary LDPC as FEC Code

Authors: Ł. Kiedrowski, H. Gierszal, W. Hołubowicz

Abstract:

This paper presents the H-ARQ techniques comparison for OFDM systems with a new family of non-binary LDPC codes which has been developed within the EU FP7 DAVINCI project. The punctured NB-LDPC codes have been used in a simulated model of the transmission system. The link level performance has been evaluated in terms of spectral efficiency, codeword error rate and average number of retransmissions. The NB-LDPC codes can be easily and effective implemented with different methods of the retransmission needed if correct decoding of a codeword failed. Here the Optimal Symbol Selection method is proposed as a Chase Combining technique.

Keywords: H-ARQ, LDPC, Non-Binary, Punctured Codes.

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1566 Crank-Nicolson Difference Scheme for the Generalized Rosenau-Burgers Equation

Authors: Kelong Zheng, Jinsong Hu,

Abstract:

In this paper, numerical solution for the generalized Rosenau-Burgers equation is considered and Crank-Nicolson finite difference scheme is proposed. Existence of the solutions for the difference scheme has been shown. Stability, convergence and priori error estimate of the scheme are proved. Numerical results demonstrate that the scheme is efficient and reliable.

Keywords: Generalized Rosenau-Burgers equation, difference scheme, stability, convergence.

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1565 End Point Detection for Wavelet Based Speech Compression

Authors: Jalal Karam

Abstract:

In real-field applications, the correct determination of voice segments highly improves the overall system accuracy and minimises the total computation time. This paper presents reliable measures of speech compression by detcting the end points of the speech signals prior to compressing them. The two different compession schemes used are the Global threshold and the Level- Dependent threshold techniques. The performance of the proposed method is tested wirh the Signal to Noise Ratios, Peak Signal to Noise Ratios and Normalized Root Mean Square Error parameter measures.

Keywords: Wavelets, End-points Detection, Compression.

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1564 Human Factors Issues and Measures in Advanced NPPs

Authors: Jun Su Ha

Abstract:

Various advanced technologies will be adopted in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs) of advanced Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), which is thought to increase operators’ performance. However, potential human factors issues coupled with digital technologies might be troublesome. Human factors issues in ACRs are identified and strategies (or countermeasures) for evaluating and analyzing each of issues are addressed in this study.

 

Keywords: Advanced control room, human factor issues, human performance, human error, nuclear power plant.

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1563 Power Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation

Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

Abstract:

Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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1562 Integral Tracking Control for a Piezoelectric Actuator System

Authors: J. H. Park, S. C. Jeong, J. H. Koo, H. Y. Jung, S. M. Lee

Abstract:

We propose an integral tracking control method for a piezoelectric actuator system. The proposed method achieves the output tracking without requiring any hysteresis observer or schemes to compensate the hysteresis effect. With the proposed control law, the system is converted into the standard singularly perturbed model. Using Tikhonov-s theorem, we guarantee that the tracking error can be reduced to arbitrarily small bound. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Keywords: Piezoelectric actuator, tracking control, hysteresis effect.

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1561 Shear Layer Investigation through a High-Load Cascade in Low-Pressure Gas Turbine Conditions

Authors: Mehdi Habibnia Rami, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mohammad H. Sabour, Rouzbeh Riazi, Hossein Hassannia

Abstract:

This paper deals with the steady and unsteady flow behavior on the separation bubble occurring on the rear portion of the suction side of T106A blade. The first phase was to implement the steady condition capturing the separation bubble. To accurately predict the separated region, the effects of three different turbulence models and computational grids were separately investigated. The results of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model on the finest grid structure are acceptably in a good agreement with its relevant experimental results. The second phase is mainly to address the effects of wake entrance on bubble disappearance in unsteady situation. In the current simulations, from what was suggested in an experiment, simulating the flow unsteadiness, with concentrations on small scale disturbances instead of simulating a complete oncoming wake, is the key issue. Subsequently, the results from the current strategy to apply the effects of the wake and two other experimental work were compared to be in a good agreement. Between the two experiments, one of them deals with wake passing unsteady flow, and the other one implements experimentally the same approach as the current Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation.

Keywords: T106A turbine cascade, shear-layer separation, steady and unsteady conditions, turbulence models, OpenFOAM.

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1560 H∞ State Estimation of Neural Networks with Discrete and Distributed Delays

Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, together with some improved Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and effective mathematical techniques, several sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the error system is globally asymptotically stable with H∞ performance, in which both the time-delay and its time variation can be fully considered. In order to get less conservative results of the state estimation condition, zero equalities and reciprocally convex approach are employed. The estimator gain matrix can be obtained in terms of the solution to linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: H∞ performance, Neural networks, State estimation.

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1559 Application of GA Optimization in Analysis of Variable Stiffness Composites

Authors: Nasim Fallahi, Erasmo Carrera, Alfonso Pagani

Abstract:

Variable angle tow describes the fibres which are curvilinearly steered in a composite lamina. Significantly, stiffness tailoring freedom of VAT composite laminate can be enlarged and enabled. Composite structures with curvilinear fibres have been shown to improve the buckling load carrying capability in contrast with the straight laminate composites. However, the optimal design and analysis of VAT are faced with high computational efforts due to the increasing number of variables. In this article, an efficient optimum solution has been used in combination with 1D Carrera’s Unified Formulation (CUF) to investigate the optimum fibre orientation angles for buckling analysis. The particular emphasis is on the LE-based CUF models, which provide a Lagrange Expansions to address a layerwise description of the problem unknowns. The first critical buckling load has been considered under simply supported boundary conditions. Special attention is lead to the sensitivity of buckling load corresponding to the fibre orientation angle in comparison with the results which obtain through the Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization frame and then Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is applied to investigate the accuracy of the optimized model. As a result, numerical CUF approach with an optimal solution demonstrates the robustness and computational efficiency of proposed optimum methodology.

Keywords: Beam structures, layerwise, optimization, variable angle tow, neural network

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1558 Basic Calibration and Normalization Techniques for Time Domain Reflectometry Measurements

Authors: Shagufta Tabassum

Abstract:

The study of dielectric properties in a binary mixture of liquids is very useful to understand the liquid structure, molecular interaction, dynamics, and kinematics of the mixture. Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is a powerful tool for studying the cooperation and molecular dynamics of the H-bonded system. Here we discuss the basic calibration and normalization procedure for TDR measurements. Our aim is to explain different types of error occur during TDR measurements and how to minimize it.

Keywords: time domain reflectometry measurement technique, cable and connector loss, oscilloscope loss, normalization technique

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1557 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Vector Modulator for Beamforming System

Authors: J. S. Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents a 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) vector modulator for beamforming system. The vector modulator features a 360° phase and gain range of -10 dB to 10 dB with a root mean square phase and amplitude error of only 2.2° and 0.45 dB, respectively. These features make it a suitable for wireless backhaul system in the 5 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands. It draws a current of 20.4 mA from a 1.2 V supply. The total chip size is 1.87x1.34 mm².

Keywords: CMOS, vector modulator, beamforming, wireless backhaul, ISM.

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1556 The Performance Analysis of CSS-based Communication Systems in the Jamming Environment

Authors: Youngpo Lee, Sanghun Kim, Youngyoon Lee, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

Due to its capability to resist jamming signals, chirp spread spectrum (CSS) technique has attracted much attention in the area of wireless communications. However, there has been little rigorous analysis for the performance of the CSS communication system in jamming environments. In this paper, we present analytic results on the performance of a CSS system by deriving symbol error rate (SER) expressions for a CSS M-ary phase shift keying (MPSK) system in the presence of broadband and tone jamming signals, respectively. The numerical results show that the empirical SER closely agrees with the analytic result.

Keywords: CSS, DM, jamming, broadband jamming, tone jamming.

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1555 On Maneuvering Target Tracking with Online Observed Colored Glint Noise Parameter Estimation

Authors: M. A. Masnadi-Shirazi, S. A. Banani

Abstract:

In this paper a comprehensive algorithm is presented to alleviate the undesired simultaneous effects of target maneuvering, observed glint noise distribution, and colored noise spectrum using online colored glint noise parameter estimation. The simulation results illustrate a significant reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) produced by the proposed algorithm compared to the algorithms that do not compensate all the above effects simultaneously.

Keywords: Glint noise, IMM, Kalman Filter, Kinematics, Target Tracking.

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1554 Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems

Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

Abstract:

The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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1553 Quadrature Formula for Sampled Functions

Authors: Khalid Minaoui, Thierry Chonavel, Benayad Nsiri, Driss Aboutajdine

Abstract:

This paper deals with efficient quadrature formulas involving functions that are observed only at fixed sampling points. The approach that we develop is derived from efficient continuous quadrature formulas, such as Gauss-Legendre or Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature. We select nodes at sampling positions that are as close as possible to those of the associated classical quadrature and we update quadrature weights accordingly. We supply the theoretical quadrature error formula for this new approach. We show on examples the potential gain of this approach.

Keywords: Gauss-Legendre, Clenshaw-Curtis, quadrature, Peano kernel, irregular sampling.

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1552 Modified Hankel Matrix Approach for Model Order Reduction in Time Domain

Authors: C. B. Vishwakarma

Abstract:

The author presented a method for model order reduction of large-scale time-invariant systems in time domain. In this approach, two modified Hankel matrices are suggested for getting reduced order models. The proposed method is simple, efficient and retains stability feature of the original high order system. The viability of the method is illustrated through the examples taken from literature.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Stability, Hankel Matrix, Time-Domain, Integral Square Error.

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1551 Deployment of Service Quality Characteristics

Authors: Shuki Dror

Abstract:

This work discusses an innovative methodology for deployment of service quality characteristics. Four groups of organizational features that may influence the quality of services are identified: human resource, technology, planning, and organizational relationships. A House of Service Quality (HOSQ) matrix is built to extract the desired improvement in the service quality characteristics and to translate them into a hierarchy of important organizational features. The Mean Square Error (MSE) criterion enables the pinpointing of the few essential service quality characteristics to be improved as well as selection of the vital organizational features. The method was implemented in an engineering supply enterprise and provides useful information on its vital service dimensions.

Keywords: HOQ, organizational features, service quality.

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1550 A Multimodal Approach for Biometric Authentication with Multiple Classifiers

Authors: Sorin Soviany, Cristina Soviany, Mariana Jurian

Abstract:

The paper presents a multimodal approach for biometric authentication, based on multiple classifiers. The proposed solution uses a post-classification biometric fusion method in which the biometric data classifiers outputs are combined in order to improve the overall biometric system performance by decreasing the classification error rates. The paper shows also the biometric recognition task improvement by means of a carefully feature selection, as much as not all of the feature vectors components support the accuracy improvement.

Keywords: biometric fusion, multiple classifiers

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1549 Non-reacting Numerical Simulation of Axisymmetric Trapped Vortex Combustor

Authors: Heval Serhat Uluk, Sam M. Dakka, Kuldeep Singh, Richard Jefferson-Loveday

Abstract:

This paper will focus on the suitability of a trapped vortex combustor as a candidate for gas turbine combustor objectives to minimize pressure drop across the combustor and investigate aerodynamic performance. Non-reacting simulation of axisymmetric cavity trapped vortex combustors was run to investigate the pressure drop for various cavity aspect ratios of 0.3, 0.6 and 1 and for air mass flow rates of 14 m/s, 28 m/s and 42 m/s. A numerical study of an axisymmetric trapped vortex combustor was carried out by using two-dimensional and three-dimensional computational domains. A comparison study was conducted between Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) k-ε Realizable with enhanced wall treatment and RANS k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) models to find the most suitable turbulence model. It was found that the k-ω SST model gives relatively close results to experimental outcomes. The numerical results were validated and showed good agreement with the experimental data. Pressure drop rises with increasing air mass flow rate, and the lowest pressure drop was observed at 0.6 cavity aspect ratio for all air mass flow rates tested, which agrees with the experimental outcome. A mixing enhancement study showed that 30-degree angle air injectors provide improved fuel-air mixing.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Propulsion, Trapped Vortex Combustor.

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1548 Computational Design of Inhibitory Agents of BMP-Noggin Interaction to Promote Osteogenesis

Authors: Shaila Ahmed, Raghu Prasad Rao Metpally, Sreedhara Sangadala, Boojala Vijay B Reddy

Abstract:

Bone growth factors, such as Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 (BMP-2) have been approved by the FDA to replace grafting for some surgical interventions, but the high dose requirement limits its use in patients. Noggin, an extracellular protein, blocks the effect of BMP-2 by binding to BMP. Preventing the BMP-2/noggin interaction will help increase the free concentration of BMP-2 and therefore should enhance its efficacy to induce bone formation. The work presented here involves computational design of novel small molecule inhibitory agents of BMP-2/noggin interaction, based on our current understanding of BMP-2, and its known putative ligands (receptors and antagonists). A successful acquisition of such an inhibitory agent of BMP-2/noggin interaction would allow clinicians to reduce the dose required of BMP-2 protein in clinical applications to promote osteogenesis. The available crystal structures of the BMPs, its receptors, and the binding partner noggin were analyzed to identify the critical residues involved in their interaction. In presenting this study, LUDI de novo design method was utilized to perform virtual screening of a large number of compounds from a commercially available library against the binding sites of noggin to identify the lead chemical compounds that could potentially block BMP-noggin interaction with a high specificity.

Keywords: Transforming growth factor-beta, Bone morphogenic proteins, Noggin, LUDI de novo design method, CAP small molecules.

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1547 Development of an Automatic Calibration Framework for Hydrologic Modelling Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

Abstract:

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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