Search results for: Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Derjew Ayele Ejigu, Houde Song, Xiaojing Liu

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This work presents the particle swarm optimization trained neural network (PSO-NN) supervisory proportional integral derivative (PID) control method to monitor the pressurized water reactor (PWR) core power for safe operation. The proposed control approach is implemented on the transfer function of the PWR core, which is computed from the state-space model. The PWR core state-space model is designed from the neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, and reactivity models using perturbation around the equilibrium value. The proposed control approach computes the control rod speed to maneuver the core power to track the reference in a closed-loop scheme. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to train the neural network (NN) and to tune the PID simultaneously. The controller performance is examined using integral absolute error, integral time absolute error, integral square error, and integral time square error functions, and the stability of the system is analyzed by using the Bode diagram. The simulation results indicated that the controller shows satisfactory performance to control and track the load power effectively and smoothly as compared to the PSO-PID control technique. This study will give benefit to design a supervisory controller for nuclear engineering research fields for control application.

Keywords: machine learning, neural network, pressurized water reactor, supervisory controller

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

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Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Essam A. Al-Bahkali, Mahir H. Es-saheb, Jonny Herwan

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In this study the elastic-plastic stress distribution in weld-bonded joint, fabricated from austenitic stainless steel (AISI 304) sheet of 1.00 mm thickness and Epoxy adhesive Araldite 2011, subjected to axial loading is investigated. This is needed to improve design procedures and welding codes, and saving efforts in the cumbersome experiments and analysis. Therefore, a complete 3-D finite element modelling and analysis of spot welded, bonded and weld-bonded joints under axial loading conditions is carried out. A comprehensive systematic experimental program is conducted to determine many properties and quantities, of the base metals and the adhesive, needed for FE modelling, such like the elastic – plastic properties, modulus of elasticity, fracture limit, the nugget and heat affected zones (HAZ) properties, etc. Consequently, the finite element models developed, for each case, are used to evaluate stresses distributions across the entire joint, in both the elastic and plastic regions. The stress distribution curves are obtained, particularly in the elastic regions and found to be consistent and in excellent agreement with the published data. Furthermore, the stresses distributions are obtained in the weld-bonded joint and display the best results with almost uniform smooth distribution compared to spot and bonded cases. The stress concentration peaks at the edges of the weld-bonded region, are almost eliminated resulting in achieving the strongest joint of all processes.

Keywords: Spot Welded, Weld-Bonded, Load-Displacement curve, Stress distribution

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Authors: Adel M. Sharaf, Foad H. Gandoman

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Nowadays, Photovoltaic-PV Farms/ Parks and large PV-Smart Grid Interface Schemes are emerging and commonly utilized in Renewable Energy distributed generation. However, PVhybrid- Dc-Ac Schemes using interface power electronic converters usually has negative impact on power quality and stabilization of modern electrical network under load excursions and network fault conditions in smart grid. Consequently, robust FACTS based interface schemes are required to ensure efficient energy utilization and stabilization of bus voltages as well as limiting switching/fault onrush current condition. FACTS devices are also used in smart grid- Battery Interface and Storage Schemes with PV-Battery Storage hybrid systems as an elegant alternative to renewable energy utilization with backup battery storage for electric utility energy and demand side management to provide needed energy and power capacity under heavy load conditions. The paper presents a robust interface PV-Li-Ion Battery Storage Interface Scheme for Distribution/Utilization Low Voltage Interface using FACTS stabilization enhancement and dynamic maximum PV power tracking controllers. Digital simulation and validation of the proposed scheme is done using MATLAB/Simulink software environment for Low Voltage- Distribution/Utilization system feeding a hybrid Linear-Motorized inrush and nonlinear type loads from a DC-AC Interface VSC-6- pulse Inverter Fed from the PV Park/Farm with a back-up Li-Ion Storage Battery.

Keywords: AC FACTS, Smart grid, Stabilization, PV-Battery Storage, Switched Filter-Compensation (SFC).

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Authors: Yash Pal, A.Swarup, Bhim Singh

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This paper presents a novel control strategy of a threephase four-wire Unified Power Quality (UPQC) for an improvement in power quality. The UPQC is realized by integration of series and shunt active power filters (APFs) sharing a common dc bus capacitor. The shunt APF is realized using a thee-phase, four leg voltage source inverter (VSI) and the series APF is realized using a three-phase, three leg VSI. A control technique based on unit vector template technique (UTT) is used to get the reference signals for series APF, while instantaneous sequence component theory (ISCT) is used for the control of Shunt APF. The performance of the implemented control algorithm is evaluated in terms of power-factor correction, load balancing, neutral source current mitigation and mitigation of voltage and current harmonics, voltage sag and swell in a three-phase four-wire distribution system for different combination of linear and non-linear loads. In this proposed control scheme of UPQC, the current/voltage control is applied over the fundamental supply currents/voltages instead of fast changing APFs currents/voltages, there by reducing the computational delay and the required sensors. MATLAB/Simulink based simulations are obtained, which support the functionality of the UPQC. MATLAB/Simulink based simulations are obtained, which support the functionality of the UPQC.

Keywords: Power Quality, UPQC, Harmonics, Load Balancing, Power Factor Correction, voltage harmonic mitigation, currentharmonic mitigation, voltage sag, swell

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

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In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

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This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: Compound growth rate, fisheries education, Holt method, skilled human capital.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: E. Giovanis

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In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: Rupali, Anil Kumar Jaiswal

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Cloud computing can be defined as one of the prominent technologies that lets a user change, configure and access the services online. it can be said that this is a prototype of computing that helps in saving cost and time of a user practically the use of cloud computing can be found in various fields like education, health, banking etc.  Cloud computing is an internet dependent technology thus it is the major responsibility of Cloud Service Providers(CSPs) to care of data stored by user at data centers. Scheduling in cloud computing environment plays a vital role as to achieve maximum utilization and user satisfaction cloud providers need to schedule resources effectively.  Job scheduling for cloud computing is analyzed in the following work. To complete, recreate the task calculation, and conveyed scheduling methods CloudSim3.0.3 is utilized. This research work discusses the job scheduling for circulated processing condition also by exploring on this issue we find it works with minimum time and less cost. In this work two load balancing techniques have been employed: ‘Throttled stack adjustment policy’ and ‘Active VM load balancing policy’ with two brokerage services ‘Advanced Response Time’ and ‘Reconfigure Dynamically’ to evaluate the VM_Cost, DC_Cost, Response Time, and Data Processing Time. The proposed techniques are compared with Round Robin scheduling policy.

Keywords: Physical machines, virtual machines, support for repetition, self-healing, highly scalable programming model.

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Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa, Mighanda J. Manyahi, Nicodemu Gregory, Alex L. Kyaruzi

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Microgrids are increasingly being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. However, the technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Management of dynamic power balances, power flow, and network voltage profiles imposes unique challenges in the context of microgrids. Stability of the microgrid during both grid-connected and islanded mode is considered as the major challenge during its operation. Traditional control methods have been employed are based on the assumption of linear loads. For instance the concept of PQ, voltage and frequency control through decoupled PQ are some of very useful when considering linear loads, but they fall short when considering nonlinear loads. The deficiency of traditional control methods of microgrid suggests that more research in the control of microgrids should be done. This research aims at introducing the dq technique concept into decoupled PQ for dynamic load demand control in inverter interfaced DG system operating as isolated LV microgrid. Decoupled PQ in exact mathematical formulation in dq frame is expected to accommodate all variations of the line parameters (resistance and inductance) and to relinquish forced relationship between the DG variables such as power, voltage and frequency in LV microgrids and allow for individual parameter control (frequency and line voltages). This concept is expected to address and achieve accurate control, improve microgrid stability and power quality at all load conditions.

Keywords: Decoupled PQ, microgrid, multisource, renewable energy, dq control.

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian Process Regression, Ensemble Kernels, Bayesian Optimization, Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, Data Analysis.

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Authors: M. De Filippo, J. S. Kuang

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In construction industry, reinforced concrete (RC) slabs represent fundamental elements of buildings and bridges. Different methods are available for analysing the structural behaviour of slabs. In the early ages of last century, the yield-line method has been proposed to attempt to solve such problem. Simple geometry problems could easily be solved by using traditional hand analyses which include plasticity theories. Nowadays, advanced finite element (FE) analyses have mainly found their way into applications of many engineering fields due to the wide range of geometries to which they can be applied. In such cases, the application of an elastic or a plastic constitutive model would completely change the approach of the analysis itself. Elastic methods are popular due to their easy applicability to automated computations. However, elastic analyses are limited since they do not consider any aspect of the material behaviour beyond its yield limit, which turns to be an essential aspect of RC structural performance. Furthermore, their applicability to non-linear analysis for modeling plastic behaviour gives very reliable results. Per contra, this type of analysis is computationally quite expensive, i.e. not well suited for solving daily engineering problems. In the past years, many researchers have worked on filling this gap between easy-to-implement elastic methods and computationally complex plastic analyses. This paper aims at proposing a numerical procedure, through which a pseudo-lower bound solution, not violating the yield criterion, is achieved. The advantages of moment distribution are taken into account, hence the increase in strength provided by plastic behaviour is considered. The lower bound solution is improved by detecting over-yielded moments, which are used to artificially rule the moment distribution among the rest of the non-yielded elements. The proposed technique obeys Nielsen’s yield criterion. The outcome of this analysis provides a simple, yet accurate, and non-time-consuming tool of predicting the lower-bound solution of the collapse load of RC slabs. By using this method, structural engineers can find the fracture patterns and ultimate load bearing capacity. The collapse triggering mechanism is found by detecting yield-lines. An application to the simple case of a square clamped slab is shown, and a good match was found with the exact values of collapse load.

Keywords: Computational mechanics, lower bound method, reinforced concrete slabs, yield-line.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: Govind Shay Sharma, Randhir Singh Baghel

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The stock management of raw materials and finished goods is a significant issue for industries in fulfilling customer demand. Optimization of inventory strategies is crucial to enhancing customer service, reducing lead times and costs, and meeting market demand. This paper suggests finding an approach to predict the optimum stock level by utilizing past stocks and forecasting the required quantities. In this paper, we utilized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to determine the optimal value. The objective of this paper is to discuss the optimized ANN that can find the best solution for the inventory model. In the context of the paper, we mentioned that the k-means algorithm is employed to create homogeneous groups of items. These groups likely exhibit similar characteristics or attributes that make them suitable for being managed using uniform inventory control policies. The paper proposes a method that uses the neural fit algorithm to control the cost of inventory.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, inventory management, optimization, distributor center.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

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The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Fatiha Khelili, Sakina Zerouali, Ouafae Bennis

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This paper features a comparative study performance of sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of direct current to direct current (DC-DC) three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM) with SMC based on hysteresis modulation (HM) where an adaptive feedforward technique is adopted. On one hand, for the PWM-based SM, the approach is to incorporate a fixed-frequency PWM scheme which is effectively a variant of SM control. On the other hand, for the HM-based SM, oncoming an adaptive feedforward control that makes the hysteresis band variable in the hysteresis modulator of the SM controller in the aim to restrict the switching frequency variation in the case of any change of the line input voltage or output load variation are introduced. The results obtained under load change, input change and reference change clearly demonstrates a similar dynamic response of both proposed techniques, their effectiveness is fast and smooth tracking of the desired output voltage. The PWM-based SM technique has greatly improved the dynamic behavior with a bit advantageous compared to the HM-based SM technique, as well as provide stability in any operating conditions. Simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment have been performed to verify the concept.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, pulse-width modulation, hysteresis modulation, DC-DC converter, parallel multi-cells converter, robustness.

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Authors: Adel A. Ghoneim

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In most existing buildings in hot climate, cooling loads lead to high primary energy consumption and consequently high CO2 emissions. These can be substantially decreased with integrated renewable energy systems. Kuwait is characterized by its dry hot long summer and short warm winter. Kuwait receives annual total radiation more than 5280 MJ/m2 with approximately 3347 h of sunshine. Solar energy systems consist of PV modules and parabolic trough collectors are considered to satisfy electricity consumption, domestic water heating, and cooling loads of an existing building. This paper presents the results of an extensive program of energy conservation and energy generation using integrated photovoltaic (PV) modules and Parabolic Trough Collectors (PTC). The program conducted on an existing institutional building intending to convert it into a Net-Zero Energy Building (NZEB) or near net Zero Energy Building (nNZEB). The program consists of two phases; the first phase is concerned with energy auditing and energy conservation measures at minimum cost and the second phase considers the installation of photovoltaic modules and parabolic trough collectors. The 2-storey building under consideration is the Applied Sciences Department at the College of Technological Studies, Kuwait. Single effect lithium bromide water absorption chillers are implemented to provide air conditioning load to the building. A numerical model is developed to evaluate the performance of parabolic trough collectors in Kuwait climate. Transient simulation program (TRNSYS) is adapted to simulate the performance of different solar system components. In addition, a numerical model is developed to assess the environmental impacts of building integrated renewable energy systems. Results indicate that efficient energy conservation can play an important role in converting the existing buildings into NZEBs as it saves a significant portion of annual energy consumption of the building. The first phase results in an energy conservation of about 28% of the building consumption. In the second phase, the integrated PV completely covers the lighting and equipment loads of the building. On the other hand, parabolic trough collectors of optimum area of 765 m2 can satisfy a significant portion of the cooling load, i.e about73% of the total building cooling load. The annual avoided CO2 emission is evaluated at the optimum conditions to assess the environmental impacts of renewable energy systems. The total annual avoided CO2 emission is about 680 metric ton/year which confirms the environmental impacts of these systems in Kuwait.

Keywords: Building integrated renewable systems, Net-Zero Energy Building, solar fraction, avoided CO2 emission.

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Authors: Krishna Kumar Singh, Praveen Jain

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Collection of storm water runoff and forcing it into the groundwater is the need of the hour to sustain the ground water table. However, the runoff entraps various types of sediments and other floating objects whose removal are essential to avoid pollution of ground water and blocking of pores of aquifer. However, it requires regular cleaning and maintenance due to problem of clogging. To evaluate the performance of filter system consisting of coarse sand (CS), gravel (G) and pebble (P) layers, a laboratory experiment was conducted in a rectangular column. The effect of variable thickness of CS, G and P layers of the filtration unit of the recharge shaft on the recharge rate and the sediment concentration of effluent water were evaluated. Medium sand (MS) of three particle sizes, viz. 0.150–0.300 mm (T1), 0.300–0.425 mm (T2) and 0.425–0.600 mm of thickness 25 cm, 30 cm and 35 cm respectively in the top layer of the filter system and having seven influent sediment concentrations of 250–3,000 mg/l were used for experimental study. The performance was evaluated in terms of recharge rates and clogging time. The results indicated that 100 % suspended solids were entrapped in the upper 10 cm layer of MS, the recharge rates declined sharply for influent concentrations of more than 1,000 mg/l. All treatments with higher thickness of MS media indicated recharge rate slightly more than that of all treatment with lower thickness of MS media respectively. The performance of storm water infiltration systems was highly dependent on the formation of a clogging layer at the filter. An empirical relationship has been derived between recharge rates, inflow sediment load, size of MS and thickness of MS with using MLR.

Keywords: Groundwater, medium sand-mixed storm water filter, inflow sediment load.

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: Scaffoldings, health and safety at work, temperature, wind speed.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

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Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.

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Authors: Idris A. Elfeituri

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of ambient conditions on the performance of a 285 MW gas turbine unit using the exergy concept. Based on the available exergy balance models developed, a computer program has been constructed to investigate the performance of the power plant under varying ambient temperature and relative humidity conditions. The variations of ambient temperature range from zero to 50 ºC and the relative humidity ranges from zero to 100%, while the unit load kept constant at 100% of the design load. The exergy destruction ratio and exergy efficiency are determined for each component and for the entire plant. The results show a moderate increase in the total exergy destruction ratio of the plant from 62.05% to 65.20%, while the overall exergy efficiency decrease from 38.2% to 34.8% as the ambient temperature increases from zero to 50 ºC at all relative humidity values. Furthermore, an increase of 1 ºC in ambient temperature leads to 0.063% increase in the total exergy destruction ratio and 0.07% decrease in the overall exergy efficiency. The relative humidity has a remarkable influence at higher ambient temperature values on the exergy destruction ratio of combustion chamber and on exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas but almost no effect on the total exergy destruction ratio and overall exergy efficiency. At 50 ºC ambient temperature, the exergy destruction ratio of the combustion chamber increases from 30% to 52% while the exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas decreases from 28% to 8% as the relative humidity increases from zero to 100%. In addition, exergy analysis reveals that the combustion chamber and exhaust gas are the main source of irreversibility in the gas turbine unit. It is also identified that the exergy efficiency and exergy destruction ratio are considerably dependent on the variations in the ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the incorporation of the existing gas turbine plant with inlet air cooling and humidifier technologies should be considered seriously.

Keywords: Destruction, exergy, gas turbine, irreversibility, performance.

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Authors: A. B. Chehreh, M. Grätzel, M. Klein, J. P. Bergmann, F. Walther

Abstract:

Friction stir welding (FSW) is an advantageous method in the thermal joining processes, featuring the welding of various dissimilar and similar material combinations, joining temperatures below the melting point which prevents irregularities such as pores and hot cracks as well as high strengths mechanical joints near the base material. The FSW process consists of a rotating tool which is made of a shoulder and a probe. The welding process is based on a rotating tool which plunges in the workpiece under axial pressure. As a result, the material is plasticized by frictional heat which leads to a decrease in the flow stress. During the welding procedure, the material is continuously displaced by the tool, creating a firmly bonded weld seam behind the tool. However, the mechanical properties of the weld seam are affected by the design and geometry of the tool. These include in particular microstructural and surface properties which can favor crack initiation. Following investigation compares the dynamic properties of FSW weld seams with conventional and stationary shoulder geometry based on load increase test (LIT). Compared to classical Woehler tests, it is possible to determine the fatigue strength of the specimens after a short amount of time. The investigations were carried out on a robotized welding setup on 2 mm thick EN AW 5754 aluminum alloy sheets. It was shown that an increased tensile and fatigue strength can be achieved by using the stationary shoulder concept. Furthermore, it could be demonstrated that the LIT is a valid method to describe the fatigue behavior of FSW weld seams.

Keywords: Aluminum alloy, fatigue performance, fracture, friction stir welding.

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

Abstract:

Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Expert System, Law of demand, Stocks, Portfolio Analysis, Indian Automotive Sector.

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Authors: Adel Aloraini

Abstract:

Financial forecasting using machine learning techniques has received great efforts in the last decide . In this ongoing work, we show how machine learning of graphical models will be able to infer a visualized causal interactions between different banks in the Saudi equities market. One important discovery from such learned causal graphs is how companies influence each other and to what extend. In this work, a set of graphical models named Gaussian graphical models with developed ensemble penalized feature selection methods that combine ; filtering method, wrapper method and a regularizer will be shown. A comparison between these different developed ensemble combinations will also be shown. The best ensemble method will be used to infer the causal relationships between banks in Saudi equities market.

Keywords: Causal interactions , banks, feature selection, regularizere,

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