Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7801

Search results for: Holt method

7801 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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7800 Forecasting Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar Using Time Series Analysis

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Yt = Yt-1 + 0.3691 (Yt-1 - Yt-2) When Yt  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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7799 Fisheries Education in Karnataka: Trends, Current Status, Performance and Prospects

Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

Abstract:

This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: Compound growth rate, fisheries education, Holt method, skilled human capital.

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7798 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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7797 Weighted Harmonic Arnoldi Method for Large Interior Eigenproblems

Authors: Zhengsheng Wang, Jing Qi, Chuntao Liu, Yuanjun Li

Abstract:

The harmonic Arnoldi method can be used to find interior eigenpairs of large matrices. However, it has been shown that this method may converge erratically and even may fail to do so. In this paper, we present a new method for computing interior eigenpairs of large nonsymmetric matrices, which is called weighted harmonic Arnoldi method. The implementation of the method has been tested by numerical examples, the results show that the method converges fast and works with high accuracy.

Keywords: Harmonic Arnoldi method, weighted harmonic Arnoldi method, eigenpair, interior eigenproblem, non symmetric matrix.

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7796 Dissipation of Higher Mode using Numerical Integration Algorithm in Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Jin Sup Kim, Woo Young Jung, Minho Kwon

Abstract:

In general dynamic analyses, lower mode response is of interest, however the higher modes of spatially discretized equations generally do not represent the real behavior and not affects to global response much. Some implicit algorithms, therefore, are introduced to filter out the high-frequency modes using intended numerical error. The objective of this study is to introduce the P-method and PC α-method to compare that with dissipation method and Newmark method through the stability analysis and numerical example. PC α-method gives more accuracy than other methods because it based on the α-method inherits the superior properties of the implicit α-method. In finite element analysis, the PC α-method is more useful than other methods because it is the explicit scheme and it achieves the second order accuracy and numerical damping simultaneously.

Keywords: Dynamic, α-Method, P-Method, PC α-Method, Newmark method.

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7795 Hourly Electricity Load Forecasting: An Empirical Application to the Italian Railways

Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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7794 The RK1GL2X3 Method for Initial Value Problems in Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK1GL2X3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on the RK1GL2 method which, in turn, is a particular case of the general RKrGLm method. The RK1GL2X3 method is a fourth-order method, even though its underlying Runge-Kutta method RK1 is the first-order Euler method, and hence, RK1GL2X3 is considerably more efficient than RK1. This enhancement is achieved through an implementation involving triple-nested two-point Gauss- Legendre quadrature.

Keywords: RK1GL2X3, RK1GL2, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, local error, global error.

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7793 Seat Assignment Problem Optimization

Authors: Mohammed Salem Alzahrani

Abstract:

In this paper the optimality of the solution of an existing real word assignment problem known as the seat assignment problem using Seat Assignment Method (SAM) is discussed. SAM is the newly driven method from three existing methods, Hungarian Method, Northwest Corner Method and Least Cost Method in a special way that produces the easiness & fairness among all methods that solve the seat assignment problem.

Keywords: Assignment Problem, Hungarian Method, Least Cost Method, Northwest Corner Method, Seat Assignment Method (SAM), A Real Word Assignment Problem.

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7792 A New Method to Solve a Non Linear Differential System

Authors: Seifedine Kadry

Abstract:

In this article, our objective is the analysis of the resolution of non-linear differential systems by combining Newton and Continuation (N-C) method. The iterative numerical methods converge where the initial condition is chosen close to the exact solution. The question of choosing the initial condition is answered by N-C method.

Keywords: Continuation Method, Newton Method, Finite Difference Method, Numerical Analysis and Non-Linear partial Differential Equation.

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7791 An Efficient Method for Solving Multipoint Equation Boundary Value Problems

Authors: Ampon Dhamacharoen, Kanittha Chompuvised

Abstract:

In this work, we solve multipoint boundary value problems where the boundary value conditions are equations using the Newton-Broyden Shooting method (NBSM).The proposed method is tested upon several problems from the literature and the results are compared with the available exact solution. The experiments are given to illustrate the efficiency and implementation of the method.

Keywords: Boundary value problem; Multipoint equation boundary value problems, Shooting Method, Newton-Broyden method.

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7790 The Differential Transform Method for Advection-Diffusion Problems

Authors: M. F. Patricio, P. M. Rosa

Abstract:

In this paper a class of numerical methods to solve linear and nonlinear PDEs and also systems of PDEs is developed. The Differential Transform method associated with the Method of Lines (MoL) is used. The theory for linear problems is extended to the nonlinear case, and a recurrence relation is established. This method can achieve an arbitrary high-order accuracy in time. A variable stepsize algorithm and some numerical results are also presented.

Keywords: Method of Lines, Differential Transform Method.

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7789 HPL-TE Method for Determination of Coatings Relative Total Emissivity Sensitivity Analysis of the Influences of Method Parameters

Authors: Z. Veselý, M. Honner

Abstract:

High power laser – total emissivity method (HPL-TE method) for determination of coatings relative total emissivity dependent on the temperature is introduced. Method principle, experimental and evaluation parts of the method are described. Computer model of HPL-TE method is employed to perform the sensitivity analysis of the effect of method parameters on the sample surface temperature in the positions where the surface temperature and radiation heat flux are measured.

Keywords: High temperature laser testing, measurement ofthermal properties, emissivity, coatings.

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7788 A New Iterative Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations

Authors: Ibrahim Abu-Alshaikh

Abstract:

In this study, a new root-finding method for solving nonlinear equations is proposed. This method requires two starting values that do not necessarily bracketing a root. However, when the starting values are selected to be close to a root, the proposed method converges to the root quicker than the secant method. Another advantage over all iterative methods is that; the proposed method usually converges to two distinct roots when the given function has more than one root, that is, the odd iterations of this new technique converge to a root and the even iterations converge to another root. Some numerical examples, including a sine-polynomial equation, are solved by using the proposed method and compared with results obtained by the secant method; perfect agreements are found.

Keywords: Iterative method, root-finding method, sine-polynomial equations, nonlinear equations.

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7787 On the Efficiency of Five Step Approximation Method for the Solution of General Third Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: N. M. Kamoh, M. C. Soomiyol

Abstract:

In this work, a five step continuous method for the solution of third order ordinary differential equations was developed in block form using collocation and interpolation techniques of the shifted Legendre polynomial basis function. The method was found to be zero-stable, consistent and convergent. The application of the method in solving third order initial value problem of ordinary differential equations revealed that the method compared favorably with existing methods.

Keywords: Shifted Legendre polynomials, third order block method, discrete method, convergent.

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7786 Application of Seismic Wave Method in Early Estimation of Wencheng Earthquake

Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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7785 Analytical Solutions of Kortweg-de Vries(KdV) Equation

Authors: Foad Saadi, M. Jalali Azizpour, S.A. Zahedi

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to present a comparative study of Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM), Variational Iteration Method (VIM) and Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM) for the semi analytical solution of Kortweg-de Vries (KdV) type equation called KdV. The study have been highlighted the efficiency and capability of aforementioned methods in solving these nonlinear problems which has been arisen from a number of important physical phenomenon.

Keywords: Variational Iteration Method (VIM), HomotopyPerturbation Method (HPM), Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM), KdV Equation.

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7784 Some Results on Preconditioned Modified Accelerated Overrelaxation Method

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Deyu Sun, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present new preconditioned modified accelerated overrelaxation (MAOR) method for solving linear systems. We compare the spectral radii of the iteration matrices of the preconditioned and the original methods. The comparison results show that the preconditioned MAOR method converges faster than the MAOR method whenever the MAOR method is convergent. Finally, we give one numerical example to confirm our theoretical results.

Keywords: preconditioned, MAOR method, linear system, convergence, comparison.

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7783 Academic Staff Perceptions of the Value of the Elements of an Online Learning Environment

Authors: Stuart Palmer, Dale Holt

Abstract:

Based on 276 responses from academic staff in an evaluation of an online learning environment (OLE), this paper identifies those elements of the OLE that were most used and valued by staff, those elements of the OLE that staff most wanted to see improved, and those factors that most contributed to staff perceptions that the use of the OLE enhanced their teaching. The most used and valued elements were core functions, including accessing unit information, accessing lecture/tutorial/lab notes, and reading online discussions. The elements identified as most needing attention related to online assessment: submitting assignments, managing assessment items, and receiving feedback on assignments. Staff felt that using the OLE enhanced their teaching when they were satisfied that their students were able to access and use their learning materials, and when they were satisfied with the professional development they received and were confident with their ability to teach with the OLE.

Keywords: Academic staff, Distance education, Evaluation, Online learning environment.

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7782 An Active Set Method in Image Inpainting

Authors: Marrick Neri, Esmeraldo Ronnie Rey Zara

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply a semismooth active set method to image inpainting. The method exploits primal and dual features of a proposed regularized total variation model, following after the technique presented in [4]. Numerical results show that the method is fast and efficient in inpainting sufficiently thin domains.

Keywords: Active set method, image inpainting, total variation model.

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7781 Extending Global Full Orthogonalization method for Solving the Matrix Equation AXB=F

Authors: Fatemeh Panjeh Ali Beik

Abstract:

In the present work, we propose a new method for solving the matrix equation AXB=F . The new method can be considered as a generalized form of the well-known global full orthogonalization method (Gl-FOM) for solving multiple linear systems. Hence, the method will be called extended Gl-FOM (EGl- FOM). For implementing EGl-FOM, generalized forms of block Krylov subspace and global Arnoldi process are presented. Finally, some numerical experiments are given to illustrate the efficiency of our new method.

Keywords: Matrix equations, Iterative methods, Block Krylovsubspace methods.

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7780 Application of He’s Parameter-Expansion Method to a Coupled Van Der Pol oscillators with Two Kinds of Time-delay Coupling

Authors: Mohammad Taghi Darvishi, Samad Kheybari

Abstract:

In this paper, the dynamics of a system of two van der Pol oscillators with delayed position and velocity is studied. We provide an approximate solution for this system using parameterexpansion method. Also, we obtain approximate values for frequencies of the system. The parameter-expansion method is more efficient than the perturbation method for this system because the method is independent of perturbation parameter assumption.

Keywords: Parameter-expansion method, coupled van der pol oscillator, time-delay system.

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7779 Mathematical Reconstruction of an Object Image Using X-Ray Interferometric Fourier Holography Method

Authors: M. K. Balyan

Abstract:

The main principles of X-ray Fourier interferometric holography method are discussed. The object image is reconstructed by the mathematical method of Fourier transformation. The three methods are presented – method of approximation, iteration method and step by step method. As an example the complex amplitude transmission coefficient reconstruction of a beryllium wire is considered. The results reconstructed by three presented methods are compared. The best results are obtained by means of step by step method.

Keywords: Dynamical diffraction, hologram, object image, X-ray holography.

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7778 Steepest Descent Method with New Step Sizes

Authors: Bib Paruhum Silalahi, Djihad Wungguli, Sugi Guritman

Abstract:

Steepest descent method is a simple gradient method for optimization. This method has a slow convergence in heading to the optimal solution, which occurs because of the zigzag form of the steps. Barzilai and Borwein modified this algorithm so that it performs well for problems with large dimensions. Barzilai and Borwein method results have sparked a lot of research on the method of steepest descent, including alternate minimization gradient method and Yuan method. Inspired by previous works, we modified the step size of the steepest descent method. We then compare the modification results against the Barzilai and Borwein method, alternate minimization gradient method and Yuan method for quadratic function cases in terms of the iterations number and the running time. The average results indicate that the steepest descent method with the new step sizes provide good results for small dimensions and able to compete with the results of Barzilai and Borwein method and the alternate minimization gradient method for large dimensions. The new step sizes have faster convergence compared to the other methods, especially for cases with large dimensions.

Keywords: Convergence, iteration, line search, running time, steepest descent, unconstrained optimization.

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7777 Calculation of Heating Load for an Apartment Complex with Unit Building Method

Authors: Ju-Seok Kim, Sun-Ae Moon, Tae-Gu Lee, Seung-Jae Moon, Jae-Heon Lee

Abstract:

As a simple to method estimate the plant heating energy capacity of an apartment complex, a new load calculation method has been proposed. The method which can be called as unit building method, predicts the heating load of the entire complex instead of summing up that of each apartment belonging to complex. Comparison of the unit heating load for various floor sizes between the present method and conventional approach shows a close agreement with dynamic load calculation code. Some additional calculations are performed to demonstrate it-s application examples.

Keywords: Unit Building Method, Unit Heating Load, TFMLoad.

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7776 New Laguerre-s Type Method for Solving of a Polynomial Equations Systems

Authors: Oleksandr Poliakov, Yevgen Pashkov, Marina Kolesova, Olena Chepenyuk, Mykhaylo Kalinin, Vadym Kramar

Abstract:

In this paper we present a substantiation of a new Laguerre-s type iterative method for solving of a nonlinear polynomial equations systems with real coefficients. The problems of its implementation, including relating to the structural choice of initial approximations, were considered. Test examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the method at the solving of many practical problems solving.

Keywords: Iterative method, Laguerre's method, Newton's method, polynomial equation, system of equations

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7775 A New Preconditioned AOR Method for Z-matrices

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Ning Zhang, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a preconditioned AOR-type iterative method for solving the linear systems Ax = b, where A is a Z-matrix. And give some comparison theorems to show that the rate of convergence of the preconditioned AOR-type iterative method is faster than the rate of convergence of the AOR-type iterative method.

Keywords: Z-matrix, AOR-type iterative method, precondition, comparison.

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7774 A Family of Improved Secant-Like Method with Super-Linear Convergence

Authors: Liang Chen

Abstract:

A family of improved secant-like method is proposed in this paper. Further, the analysis of the convergence shows that this method has super-linear convergence. Efficiency are demonstrated by numerical experiments when the choice of α is correct.

Keywords: Nonlinear equations, Secant method, Convergence order, Secant-like method.

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7773 New Newton's Method with Third-order Convergence for Solving Nonlinear Equations

Authors: Osama Yusuf Ababneh

Abstract:

For the last years, the variants of the Newton-s method with cubic convergence have become popular iterative methods to find approximate solutions to the roots of non-linear equations. These methods both enjoy cubic convergence at simple roots and do not require the evaluation of second order derivatives. In this paper, we present a new Newton-s method based on contra harmonic mean with cubically convergent. Numerical examples show that the new method can compete with the classical Newton's method.

Keywords: Third-order convergence, non-linear equations, root finding, iterative method.

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7772 Improved IDR(s) Method for Gaining Very Accurate Solutions

Authors: Yusuke Onoue, Seiji Fujino, Norimasa Nakashima

Abstract:

The IDR(s) method based on an extended IDR theorem was proposed by Sonneveld and van Gijzen. The original IDR(s) method has excellent property compared with the conventional iterative methods in terms of efficiency and small amount of memory. IDR(s) method, however, has unexpected property that relative residual 2-norm stagnates at the level of less than 10-12. In this paper, an effective strategy for stagnation detection, stagnation avoidance using adaptively information of parameter s and improvement of convergence rate itself of IDR(s) method are proposed in order to gain high accuracy of the approximated solution of IDR(s) method. Through numerical experiments, effectiveness of adaptive tuning IDR(s) method is verified and demonstrated.

Keywords: Krylov subspace methods, IDR(s), adaptive tuning, stagnation of relative residual.

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