Search results for: Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Timothy E. Frank, Peter J. Amaddio, Elizabeth D. Decko, Alexis M. Tri, Darcy A. Farrell, Cole M. Landes

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Ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) is a class of cementitious composites with a relatively large percentage of cement generating high compressive strength. Additionally, UHPC contains disbursed fibers, which control crack width, carry the tensile load across narrow cracks, and limit spalling. These characteristics lend themselves to a wide range of structural applications when UHPC members are reinforced with longitudinal steel. Efficient use of fibers and longitudinal steel is required to keep lifecycle cost competitive in reinforced UHPC members; this requires full utilization of both the compressive and tensile qualities of the reinforced cementitious composite. The objective of this study is to investigate the shear response of steel-reinforced UHPC beams to guide design decisions that keep initial costs reasonable, limit serviceability crack widths, and ensure a ductile structural response and failure path. Five small-scale, reinforced UHPC beams were experimentally tested. Longitudinal steel, transverse steel, and casting direction were varied. Results indicate that an increase in transverse steel in short-spanned reinforced UHPC beams provided additional shear capacity and increased the peak load achieved. Beams with very large longitudinal steel reinforcement ratios did not achieve yield and fully utilized the tension properties of the longitudinal steel. Casting the UHPC beams from the end or from the middle affected load-carrying capacity and ductility, but image analysis determined that the fiber orientation was not significantly different. It is believed that the presence of transverse and longitudinal steel reinforcement minimized the effect of different UHPC casting directions. Results support recent recommendations in the literature suggesting that a 1% fiber volume fraction is sufficient within UHPC to prevent spalling and provide compressive fracture toughness under extreme loading conditions.

Keywords: Fiber orientation, reinforced ultra-high performance concrete beams, shear, transverse steel.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Low volume roads are widely used all over the world. To improve their quality the computer simulation of their behavior is proposed. The FEM model enables to determine stress and displacement conditions in the pavement and/or also in the particular material layers. Different variants of pavement layers, material used, humidity as well as loading conditions can be studied. Among others, the input information about material properties of individual layers made from recycled materials is crucial for obtaining results as exact as possible. For this purpose the cyclic-load triaxial test machine testing of cyclic-load performance of materials is a promising test method. The test is able to simulate the real traffic loading on particular materials taking into account the changes in the horizontal stress conditions produced in particular layers by crossings of vehicles. Also the test specimen can be prepared with different amount of water. Thus modulus of elasticity (Young modulus) of different materials including recycled ones can be measured under the different conditions of horizontal and vertical stresses as well as under the different humidity conditions. Using the proposed testing procedure the modulus of elasticity of recycled materials used in the newly built low volume road is obtained under different stress and humidity conditions set to standard, dry and fully saturated level. Obtained values of modulus of elasticity are used in FEA.

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, pavement, triaxial test, Young modulus.

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Authors: Stephanie Russo Fabris, Edmara Thays Neres Menezes, Ruirogeres dos Santos Cruz, Lucio Leonardo Siqueira Santos, Suzana Leitao Russo

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The statistical process control (SPC) is one of the most powerful tools developed to assist ineffective control of quality, involves collecting, organizing and interpreting data during production. This article aims to show how the use of CEP industries can control and continuously improve product quality through monitoring of production that can detect deviations of parameters representing the process by reducing the amount of off-specification products and thus the costs of production. This study aimed to conduct a technological forecasting in order to characterize the research being done related to the CEP. The survey was conducted in the databases Spacenet, WIPO and the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI). Among the largest are the United States depositors and deposits via PCT, the classification section that was presented in greater abundance to F.

Keywords: Statistical Process Control, Industries

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Authors: Perminderjit Singh, Randeep Singh

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The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a single cylinder four stroke variable compression ratio multi fuel engine when fueled with different blends of rice bran oil methyl ester and ethanol are investigated and compared with the results of standard diesel. Bio diesel produced from Rice bran oil by transesterification process has been used in this study. Experiment has been conducted at a fixed engine speed of 1500 rpm, 50% load and at compression ratios of 16.5:1, 17:1, 17.5:1 and 18:1. The impact of compression ratio on fuel consumption, brake thermal efficiency and exhaust gas emissions has been investigated and presented. Optimum compression ratio which gives best performance has been identified. The results indicate longer ignition delay, maximum rate of pressure rise, lower heat release rate and higher mass fraction burnt at higher compression ratio for waste cooking oil methyl ester when compared to that of diesel. The brake thermal efficiency at 50% load for Rice bran oil methyl ester blends and diesel has been calculated and the blend B40 is found to give maximum thermal efficiency. The blends when used as fuel results in reduction of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon and increase in nitrogen oxides emissions.

Keywords: Biodiesel, Rice bran oil, Transesterification, Ethanol, Compression Ratio.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Mohammad M. Toufigh, Ahad Ouria

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This paper presents an analytical method to solve governing consolidation parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) for inelastic porous Medium (soil) with consideration of variation of equation coefficient under cyclic loading. Since under cyclic loads, soil skeleton parameters change, this would introduce variable coefficient of parabolic PDE. Classical theory would not rationalize consolidation phenomenon in such condition. In this research, a method based on time space mapping to a virtual time space along with superimposing rule is employed to solve consolidation of inelastic soils in cyclic condition. Changes of consolidation coefficient applied in solution by modification of loading and unloading duration by introducing virtual time. Mapping function is calculated based on consolidation partial differential equation results. Based on superimposing rule a set of continuous static loads in specified times used instead of cyclic load. A set of laboratory consolidation tests under cyclic load along with numerical calculations were performed in order to verify the presented method. Numerical solution and laboratory tests results showed accuracy of presented method.

Keywords: Mapping, Consolidation, Inelastic porous medium, Cyclic loading, Superimposing rule.

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Authors: Emre Kara, Ahmet F. Geylan, Kadir Koç, Şura Karakuzu, Metehan Demir, Halil Aykul

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The structures obtained with the use of sandwich technologies combine low weight with high energy absorbing capacity and load carrying capacity. Hence, there is a growing and markedly interest in the use of sandwiches with aluminum foam core because of very good properties such as flexural rigidity and energy absorption capability. In the current investigation, the static threepoint bending tests were carried out on the sandwiches with aluminum foam core and glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins at different values of support span distances aiming the analyses of their flexural performance. The influence of the core thickness and the GFRP skin type was reported in terms of peak load and energy absorption capacity. For this purpose, the skins with two different types of fabrics which have same thickness value and the aluminum foam core with two different thicknesses were bonded with a commercial polyurethane based flexible adhesive in order to combine the composite sandwich panels. The main results of the bending tests are: force-displacement curves, peak force values, absorbed energy, collapse mechanisms and the effect of the support span length and core thickness. The results of the experimental study showed that the sandwich with the skins made of S-Glass Woven fabrics and with the thicker foam core presented higher mechanical values such as load carrying and energy absorption capacities. The increment of the support span distance generated the decrease of the mechanical values for each type of panels, as expected, because of the inverse proportion between the force and span length. The most common failure types of the sandwiches are debonding of the lower skin and the core shear. The obtained results have particular importance for applications that require lightweight structures with a high capacity of energy dissipation, such as the transport industry (automotive, aerospace, shipbuilding and marine industry), where the problems of collision and crash have increased in the last years.

Keywords: Aluminum foam, Composite panel, Flexure, Transport application.

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Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

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Minimization methods for training feed-forward networks with Backpropagation are compared. Feedforward network training is a special case of functional minimization, where no explicit model of the data is assumed. Therefore due to the high dimensionality of the data, linearization of the training problem through use of orthogonal basis functions is not desirable. The focus is functional minimization on any basis. A number of methods based on local gradient and Hessian matrices are discussed. Modifications of many methods of first and second order training methods are considered. Using share rates data, experimentally it is proved that Conjugate gradient and Quasi Newton?s methods outperformed the Gradient Descent methods. In case of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is of special interest in financial forecasting.

Keywords: Backpropagation algorithm, conjugacy condition, line search, matrix perturbation

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Authors: Rui Magalhães, Sohel Rana, Raul Fangueiro, Clara Gonçalves, Pedro Nunes, Gustavo Dias

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Auxetic fibrous structures and composites with negative Poisson’s ratio (NPR) have huge potential for application in ballistic protection due to their high energy absorption and excellent impact resistance. In the present research, re-entrant lozenge auxetic fibrous structures were produced through weft knitting technology using high performance polyamide and para-aramid fibres. Fabric structural parameters (e.g. loop length) and machine parameters (e.g. take down load) were varied in order to investigate their influence on the auxetic behaviours of the produced structures. These auxetic structures were then impregnated with two types of polymeric resins (epoxy and polyester) to produce composite materials, which were subsequently characterized for the auxetic behaviour. It was observed that the knitted fabrics produced using the polyamide yarns exhibited NPR over a wide deformation range, which was strongly dependant on the loop length and take down load. The polymeric composites produced from the auxetic fabrics also showed good auxetic property, which was superior in case of the polyester matrix. The experimental results suggested that these composites made from the auxetic fibrous structures can be properly designed to find potential use in the body amours for personal protection applications.

Keywords: Auxetic fabrics, high performance, composites, impact resistance, energy absorption.

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Authors: Kent Salomonsson, Xuefang Zhao, Sara Kallin

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Human soft tissue is loaded and deformed by any activity, an effect known as a stress-strain relationship, and is often described by a load and tissue elongation curve. Several advances have been made in the fields of biology and mechanics of soft human tissue. However, there is limited information available on in vivo tissue mechanical characteristics and behavior. Confident mechanical properties of human soft tissue cannot be extrapolated from e.g. animal testing. Thus, there is need for non invasive methods to analyze mechanical characteristics of soft human tissue. In the present study, the internal mechanical conditions of the lower limb, which is subject to an external load, is studied by use of the finite element method. A detailed finite element model of the lower limb is made possible by use of MRI scans. Skin, fat, bones, fascia and muscles are represented separately and the material properties for them are obtained from literature. Previous studies have been shown to address macroscopic deformation features, e.g. indentation depth, to a large extent. However, the detail in which the internal anatomical features have been modeled does not reveal the critical internal strains that may induce hypoxia and/or eventual tissue damage. The results of the present study reveals that lumped material models, i.e. averaging of the material properties for the different constituents, does not capture regions of critical strains in contrast to more detailed models.

Keywords: FEM, human soft tissue, indentation, properties.

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Authors: Hussain Jiffry, Kypros Pilakoutas, Reyes Garcia

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This study examines analytically the effect of tsunami loads on reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings. The impact of tsunami wave loads and waterborne objects are analyzed using a typical substandard full-scale two-story RC frame building tested as part of the EU-funded Ecoleader project. The building was subjected to shake table tests in bare condition, and subsequently strengthened using Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites and retested. Numerical models of the building in both bare and CFRP-strengthened conditions are calibrated in DRAIN-3DX software to match the test results. To investigate the response of wave loads and impact forces, the numerical models are subjected to nonlinear dynamic analyses using force time-history input records. The analytical results are compared in terms of displacements at the floors and at the “impact point” of a boat. The results show that the roof displacement of the CFRP-strengthened building reduced by 63% when compared to the bare building. The results also indicate that strengthening only the mid-height of the impact column using CFRP is more effective at reducing damage when compared to strengthening other parts of the column. Alternative solutions to mitigate damage due to tsunami loads are suggested.

Keywords: Tsunami loads, hydrodynamic load, impact load, waterborne objects, RC buildings.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Izian Abd. Karim, Kachalla Mohammed, Nora Farah A. A. Aziz, Law Teik Hua

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The economic use and ease of construction of profiled deck composite slab is marred with the complex and un-economic strength verification required for the serviceability and general safety considerations. Beside these, albeit factors such as shear span length, deck geometries and mechanical frictions greatly influence the longitudinal shear strength, that determines the ultimate strength of profiled deck composite slab, and number of methods available for its determination; partial shear and slope-intercept are the two methods according to Euro-code 4 provision. However, the complexity associated with shear behavior of profiled deck composite slab, the use of these methods in determining the load carrying capacities of such slab yields different and conflicting values. This couple with the time and cost constraint associated with the strength verification is a source of concern that draws more attentions nowadays, the issue is critical. Treating some of these known shear strength influencing factors as random variables, the load carrying capacity violation of profiled deck composite slab from the use of the two-methods defined according to Euro-code 4 are determined using reliability approach, and comparatively studied. The study reveals safety values from the use of m-k method shows good standing compared with that from the partial shear method.

Keywords: Composite slab, first order reliability method, longitudinal shear, partial shear connection, slope-intercept.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

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Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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Authors: D. Mirauda, M. Greco, P. Moscarelli

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The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.

Keywords: gauged station, entropic approach, expeditive methodology, rating curves.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: S. A. H. Feghhi, Z. Gholamzadeh, Z. Alipoor, C. Tenreiro

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Currently, thorium fuel has been especially noticed because of its proliferation resistance than long half-life alpha emitter minor actinides, breeding capability in fast and thermal neutron flux and mono-isotopic naturally abundant. In recent years, efficiency of minor actinide burning up in PWRs has been investigated. Hence, a minor actinide-contained thorium based fuel matrix can confront both proliferation resistance and nuclear waste depletion aims. In the present work, minor actinide depletion rate in a CANDU-type nuclear core modeled using MCNP code has been investigated. The obtained effects of minor actinide load as mixture of thorium fuel matrix on the core neutronics has been studied with comparing presence and non-presence of minor actinide component in the fuel matrix. Depletion rate of minor actinides in the MA-contained fuel has been calculated using different power loads. According to the obtained computational data, minor actinide loading in the modeled core results in more negative reactivity coefficients. The MA-contained fuel achieves less radial peaking factor in the modeled core. The obtained computational results showed 140 kg of 464 kg initial load of minor actinide has been depleted in during a 6-year burn up in 10 MW power.

Keywords: Minor actinide burning, CANDU-type reactor, MCNPX code, Neutronic parameters.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Zhifeng Xu, Zhongfan Chen

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A series of tests on cold-formed steel foamed concrete (CSFC) composite walls subjected to axial load were proposed. The primary purpose of the experiments was to study the mechanical behavior and identify the failure modes of CSFC composite walls. Two main factors were considered in this study: 1) specimen with pouring foamed concrete or without and 2) different foamed concrete density ranks (corresponding to different foamed concrete strength). The interior space between two pieces of straw board of the specimen W-2 and W-3 were poured foamed concrete, and the specimen W-1 does not have foamed concrete core. The foamed concrete density rank of the specimen W-2 was A05 grade, and that of the specimen W-3 was A07 grade. Results showed that the failure mode of CSFC composite wall without foamed concrete was distortional buckling of cold-formed steel (CFS) column, and that poured foamed concrete includes the local crushing of foamed concrete and local buckling of CFS column, but the former prior to the later. Compared with CSFC composite wall without foamed concrete, the ultimate bearing capacity of spec imens poured A05 grade and A07 grade foamed concrete increased 1.6 times and 2.2 times respectively, and specimen poured foamed concrete had a low vertical deformation. According to these results, the simplified calculation formula for the CSFC wall subjected to axial load was proposed, and the calculated results from this formula are in very good agreement with the test results.

Keywords: Cold-formed steel, composite wall, foamed concrete, axial behavior test.

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Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.

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Authors: Anshu Manik, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha K. Khaitan

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Rutting is one of the major load-related distresses in airport flexible pavements. Rutting in paving materials develop gradually with an increasing number of load applications, usually appearing as longitudinal depressions in the wheel paths and it may be accompanied by small upheavals to the sides. Significant research has been conducted to determine the factors which affect rutting and how they can be controlled. Using the experimental design concepts, a series of tests can be conducted while varying levels of different parameters, which could be the cause for rutting in airport flexible pavements. If proper experimental design is done, the results obtained from these tests can give a better insight into the causes of rutting and the presence of interactions and synergisms among the system variables which have influence on rutting. Although traditionally, laboratory experiments are conducted in a controlled fashion to understand the statistical interaction of variables in such situations, this study is an attempt to identify the critical system variables influencing airport flexible pavement rut depth from a statistical DoE perspective using real field data from a full-scale test facility. The test results do strongly indicate that the response (rut depth) has too much noise in it and it would not allow determination of a good model. From a statistical DoE perspective, two major changes proposed for this experiment are: (1) actual replication of the tests is definitely required, (2) nuisance variables need to be identified and blocked properly. Further investigation is necessary to determine possible sources of noise in the experiment.

Keywords: Airport Pavement, Design of Experiments, Rutting, NAPTF.

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Pushpinder Singh, Parampreet Kaur, Amarpreet Kaur

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Ranking of fuzzy numbers play an important role in decision making, optimization, forecasting etc. Fuzzy numbers must be ranked before an action is taken by a decision maker. In this paper, with the help of several counter examples it is proved that ranking method proposed by Chen and Chen (Expert Systems with Applications 36 (2009) 6833-6842) is incorrect. The main aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for the ranking of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that the proposed approach provide the correct ordering of generalized and normal trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and also the proposed approach is very simple and easy to apply in the real life problems. It is shown that proposed ranking function satisfies all the reasonable properties of fuzzy quantities proposed by Wang and Kerre (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001) 375-385).

Keywords: Ranking function, Generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

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Authors: Sriram Venkatesh, V. Murali Mohan, T. V. Karthikeyan

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The main advantage of multidirectionally reinforced composites is the freedom to orient selected fiber types and hence derives the benefits of varying fibre volume fractions and there by accommodate the design loads of the final structure of composites. This technology provides the means to produce tailored composites with desired properties. Due to the high level of fibre integrity with through thickness reinforcement those composites are expected to exhibit superior load bearing characteristics with capability to carry load even after noticeable and apparent fracture. However, a survey of published literature indicates inadequacy in the design and test data base for the complete characterization of the multidirectional composites. In this paper the research objective is focused on the development and testing of 4-D orthogonal composites with different preform configurations and resin systems. A preform is the skeleton 4D reinforced composite other than the matrix. In 4-D performs fibre bundles are oriented in three directions at 120⁰ with respect to each other and they are on orthogonal plane with the fibre in 4^th direction. This paper addresses the various types of 4-D composite manufacturing processes and the mechanical test methods followed for the material characterization. A composite analysis is also made, experiments on course and fine woven preforms are conducted and the findings of test results are discussed in this paper. The interpretations of the test results reveal several useful and interesting features. This should pave the way for more widespread use of the perform configurations for allied applications.

Keywords: Multidirectionally Reinforced Composites, 4-D Orthogonal Preform, Course weave, Fine weave.

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Authors: A. Khodabakhshi, A. Mortazavi

Abstract:

Accurate determination of rock mass deformation modulus, as an important design parameter, is one of the most controversial issues in most engineering projects. A 3D numerical model of standard plate load test (PLT) using the FLAC3D code was carried to investigate the mechanism governing the test process. Five objectives were the focus of this study. The first goal was to employ 3D modeling in the interpretation of PLT conducted at the Bazoft dam site, Iran. The second objective was to investigate the effect of displacements measuring depth from the loading plates on the calculated moduli. The magnitude of rock mass deformation modulus calculated from PLT depends on anchor depth, and in practice, this may be a cause of error in the selection of realistic deformation modulus for the rock mass. The third goal of the study was to investigate the effect of testing plate diameter on the calculated modulus. Moreover, a comparison of the calculated modulus from ISRM formula, numerical modeling and calculated modulus from the actual PLT carried out at right abutment of the Bazoft dam site was another objective of the study. Finally, the effect of plastic strains on the calculated moduli in each of the loading-unloading cycles for three loading plates was investigated. The geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions on the constructed 3D model were selected based on the in-situ conditions of PLT at Bazoft dam site. A good agreement was achieved between numerical model results and the field tests results.

Keywords: Deformation modulus, numerical model, plate loading test, rock mass.

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Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

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Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: Foundation uplift, Iso-uplift curves, Resistance domain, Soil yield.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Bohuslava Juhasova, Martin Juhas, Renata Masarova, Zuzana Sutova

Abstract:

The article deals with the tool in Matlab GUI form that is designed to analyse a mechatronic system sensitivity and tolerance. In the analysed mechatronic system, a torque is transferred from the drive to the load through a coupling containing flexible elements. Different methods of control system design are used. The classic form of the feedback control is proposed using Naslin method, modulus optimum criterion and inverse dynamics method. The cascade form of the control is proposed based on combination of modulus optimum criterion and symmetric optimum criterion. The sensitivity is analysed on the basis of absolute and relative sensitivity of system function to the change of chosen parameter value of the mechatronic system, as well as the control subsystem. The tolerance is analysed in the form of determining the range of allowed relative changes of selected system parameters in the field of system stability. The tool allows to analyse an influence of torsion stiffness, torsion damping, inertia moments of the motor and the load and controller(s) parameters. The sensitivity and tolerance are monitored in terms of the impact of parameter change on the response in the form of system step response and system frequency-response logarithmic characteristics. The Symbolic Math Toolbox for expression of the final shape of analysed system functions was used. The sensitivity and tolerance are graphically represented as 2D graph of sensitivity or tolerance of the system function and 3D/2D static/interactive graph of step/frequency response.

Keywords: Mechatronic systems, Matlab GUI, sensitivity, tolerance.

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

Abstract:

Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs.

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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