Search results for: software quality factors
472 Genetic Algorithm Based Approach for Actuator Saturation Effect on Nonlinear Controllers
Authors: M. Mohebbi, K. Shakeri
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In the real application of active control systems to mitigate the response of structures subjected to sever external excitations such as earthquake and wind induced vibrations, since the capacity of actuators is limited then the actuators saturate. Hence, in designing controllers for linear and nonlinear structures under sever earthquakes, the actuator saturation should be considered as a constraint. In this paper optimal design of active controllers for nonlinear structures by considering the actuator saturation has been studied. To this end a method has been proposed based on defining an optimization problem which considers the minimizing of the maximum displacement of the structure as objective when a limited capacity for actuator has been used as a constraint in optimization problem. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a single degree of freedom (SDF) structure with a bilinear hysteretic behavior has been simulated under a white noise ground acceleration of different amplitudes. Active tendon control mechanism, comprised of pre-stressed tendons and an actuator, and extended nonlinear Newmark method based instantaneous optimal control algorithm have been used as active control mechanism and algorithm. To enhance the efficiency of the controllers, the weights corresponding to displacement, velocity, acceleration and control force in the performance index have been found by using the Distributed Genetic Algorithm (DGA). According to the results it has been concluded that the proposed method has been effective in considering the actuator saturation in designing optimal controllers for nonlinear frames. Also it has been shown that the actuator capacity and the average value of required control force are two important factors in designing nonlinear controllers for considering the actuator saturation.Keywords: Active control, Actuator Saturation, Nonlinear, Optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1454471 An In-depth Experimental Study of Wax Deposition in Pipelines
Authors: M. L. Arias, J. D’Adamo, M. N. Novosad, P. A. Raffo, H. P. Burbridge, G. O. Artana
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Shale oils are highly paraffinic and, consequently, can create wax deposits that foul pipelines during transportation. Several factors must be considered when designing pipelines or treatment programs that prevent wax deposition: including chemical species in crude oils, flowrates, pipes diameters and temperature. This paper describes the wax deposition study carried out within the framework of YPF Tecnolgía S.A. (Y-TEC) flow assurance projects, as part of the process to achieve a better understanding on wax deposition issues. Laboratory experiments were performed on a medium size, 1 inch diameter, wax deposition loop of 15 meters long equipped with a solid detector system, online microscope to visualize crystals, temperature, and pressure sensors along the loop pipe. A baseline test was performed with diesel with no added paraffin or additive content. Tests were undertaken with different temperatures of circulating and cooling fluid at different flow conditions. Then, a solution formed with a paraffin incorporated to the diesel was considered. Tests varying flowrate and cooling rate were again run. Viscosity, density, WAT (Wax Appearance Temperature) with DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry), pour point and cold finger measurements were carried out to determine physical properties of the working fluids. The results obtained in the loop were analyzed through momentum balance and heat transfer models. To determine possible paraffin deposition scenarios temperature and pressure loop output signals were studied. They were compared with WAT static laboratory methods.
Keywords: Paraffin deposition, wax, oil pipelines, experimental pipe loop.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 161470 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net
Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto
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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.
Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1199469 The Role of Mobile Technology in Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Immunization during New Vaccines Introduction in Cameroon: A Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: A. A. Njoh, S. T. Ndoula, A. Adidja, G. N. Menan, A. Mengue, E. Mboke, H. B. Bachir, S. C. Nchinjoh, L. Adisso, Y. Saidu, L. Cleenewerck de Kiev
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Vaccines serve a great deal in protecting the population globally. Vaccine products are subject to rigorous quality control and approval before use to ensure safety. Even if all actors take the required precautions, some people could still have adverse events following immunization (AEFI) caused by the vaccine composition or an error in its administration. AEFI underreporting is pronounced in low-income settings like Cameroon. The Country introduced electronic platforms to strengthen surveillance. With the introduction of many novel vaccines, like COVID-19 and the novel Oral Polio Vaccine (nOPV) 2, there was a need to monitor AEFI in Cameroon. A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2022. Data on AEFI per region of Cameroon were reviewed for the previous five years. Data were analyzed with MS Excel, and the results were presented in proportions. AEFI reporting was uncommon in Cameroon. With the introduction of novel vaccines in 2021, the health authorities engaged in new tools and training to capture cases. AEFI detected almost doubled using the open data kit (ODK) compared to previous platforms, especially following the introduction of the nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines. The AEFI rate was 1.9 and 160 per administered 100,000 doses of nOPV2 and COVID-19 vaccines, respectively. This mobile tool captured individual information for people with AEFI from all regions. The platform helped to identify common AEFI following the use of these new vaccines. The ODK mobile technology was vital in improving AEFI reporting and providing data to monitor the use of new vaccines in Cameroon.
Keywords: Adverse events following immunization, AEFI, Cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, novel oral polio vaccine 2, open data kit.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 175468 Performance Analysis of Search Medical Imaging Service on Cloud Storage Using Decision Trees
Authors: González A. Julio, Ramírez L. Leonardo, Puerta A. Gabriel
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Telemedicine services use a large amount of data, most of which are diagnostic images in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and Health Level Seven (HL7) formats. Metadata is generated from each related image to support their identification. This study presents the use of decision trees for the optimization of information search processes for diagnostic images, hosted on the cloud server. To analyze the performance in the server, the following quality of service (QoS) metrics are evaluated: delay, bandwidth, jitter, latency and throughput in five test scenarios for a total of 26 experiments during the loading and downloading of DICOM images, hosted by the telemedicine group server of the Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, Bogotá, Colombia. By applying decision trees as a data mining technique and comparing it with the sequential search, it was possible to evaluate the search times of diagnostic images in the server. The results show that by using the metadata in decision trees, the search times are substantially improved, the computational resources are optimized and the request management of the telemedicine image service is improved. Based on the experiments carried out, search efficiency increased by 45% in relation to the sequential search, given that, when downloading a diagnostic image, false positives are avoided in management and acquisition processes of said information. It is concluded that, for the diagnostic images services in telemedicine, the technique of decision trees guarantees the accessibility and robustness in the acquisition and manipulation of medical images, in improvement of the diagnoses and medical procedures in patients.
Keywords: Cloud storage, decision trees, diagnostic image, search, telemedicine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 948467 A Comparative Study of Single- and Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotube Incorporation to Indium Tin Oxide Electrodes for Solar Cells
Authors: G. Gokceli, O. Eksik, E. Ozkan Zayim, N. Karatepe
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Alternative electrode materials for optoelectronic devices have been widely investigated in recent years. Since indium tin oxide (ITO) is the most preferred transparent conductive electrode, producing ITO films by simple and cost-effective solution-based techniques with enhanced optical and electrical properties has great importance. In this study, single- and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT and MWCNT) incorporated into the ITO structure to increase electrical conductivity, mechanical strength, and chemical stability. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were firstly functionalized by acid treatment (HNO3:H2SO4), and the thermal resistance of CNTs after functionalization was determined by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Thin films were then prepared by spin coating technique and characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), four-point probe measurement system and UV-Vis spectrophotometer. The effects of process parameters were compared for ITO, MWCNT-ITO, and SWCNT-ITO films. Two factors including CNT concentration and annealing temperature were considered. The UV-Vis measurements demonstrated that the transmittance of ITO films was 83.58% at 550 nm, which was decreased depending on the concentration of CNT dopant. On the other hand, both CNT dopants provided an enhancement in the crystalline structure and electrical conductivity. Due to compatible diameter and better dispersibility of SWCNTs in the ITO solution, the best result in terms of electrical conductivity was obtained by SWCNT-ITO films with the 0.1 g/L SWCNT dopant concentration and heat-treatment at 550 °C for 1 hour.Keywords: CNT incorporation, ITO electrode, spin coating, thin film.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 826466 Creating the Color Panoramic View using Medley of Grayscale and Color Partial Images
Authors: Dr. H. B. Kekre, Sudeep D. Thepade
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Panoramic view generation has always offered novel and distinct challenges in the field of image processing. Panoramic view generation is nothing but construction of bigger view mosaic image from set of partial images of the desired view. The paper presents a solution to one of the problems of image seascape formation where some of the partial images are color and others are grayscale. The simplest solution could be to convert all image parts into grayscale images and fusing them to get grayscale image panorama. But in the multihued world, obtaining the colored seascape will always be preferred. This could be achieved by picking colors from the color parts and squirting them in grayscale parts of the seascape. So firstly the grayscale image parts should be colored with help of color image parts and then these parts should be fused to construct the seascape image. The problem of coloring grayscale images has no exact solution. In the proposed technique of panoramic view generation, the job of transferring color traits from reference color image to grayscale image is done by palette based method. In this technique, the color palette is prepared using pixel windows of some degrees taken from color image parts. Then the grayscale image part is divided into pixel windows with same degrees. For every window of grayscale image part the palette is searched and equivalent color values are found, which could be used to color grayscale window. For palette preparation we have used RGB color space and Kekre-s LUV color space. Kekre-s LUV color space gives better quality of coloring. The searching time through color palette is improved over the exhaustive search using Kekre-s fast search technique. After coloring the grayscale image pieces the next job is fusion of all these pieces to obtain panoramic view. For similarity estimation between partial images correlation coefficient is used.Keywords: Panoramic View, Similarity Estimate, Color Transfer, Color Palette, Kekre's Fast Search, Kekre's LUV
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1753465 Effect of Pole Weight on Nordic Walking
Authors: Takeshi Sato, Mizuki Nakajima, Macky Kato, Shoji Igawa
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The purpose of study was to investigate the effect of varying pole weights on energy expenditure, upper limb and lower limb muscle activity as Electromyogram during Nordic walking (NW). Four healthy men [age = 22.5 (±1.0) years, body mass = 61.4 (±3.6) kg, height = 170.3 (±4.3) cm] and three healthy women [age = 22.7 (±2.9) years, body mass = 53.0 (±1.7) kg, height = 156.7 (±4.5) cm] participated in the experiments after informed consent. Seven healthy subjects were tested on the treadmill, walking, walking (W) with Nordic Poles (NW) and walking with 1kg weight Nordic Poles (NW+1). Walking speed was 6 km per hours in all trials. Eight EMG activities were recorded by bipolar surface methods in biceps brachii, triceps brachii, trapezius, deltoideus, tibialis anterior, medial gastrocnemius, rectus femoris and biceps femoris muscles. And heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were measured. The level of significance was set at a = 0.05, with p < 0.05 regarded as statistically significant. Our results confirmed that use of NW poles increased HR at a given upper arm muscle activity but decreased lower limb EMGs in comparison with W. Moreover NW was able to increase more step lengths with hip joint extension during NW rather than W. Also, EMG revealed higher activation of upper limb for almost all NW and 1kgNW tests plus added masses compared to W (p < 0.05). Therefore, it was thought either of NW and 1kgNW were to have benefit as a physical exercise for safe, feasible, and readily training for a wide range of aged people in the quality of daily life. However, there was no significant effected in leg muscles activity by using 1kgNW except for upper arm muscle activity during Nordic pole walking.
Keywords: Nordic walking, electromyogram, heart rate.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1029464 Millennials' Viewpoints about Sustainable Hotels' Practices in Egypt: Promoting Responsible Consumerism
Authors: Jailan Mohamed El Demerdash
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Millennials are a distinctive and dominant consumer group whose behavior, preferences and purchase decisions are broadly explored but not fully understood yet. Making up the largest market segment in the world, and in Egypt, they have the power to reinvent the hospitality industry and contribute to forming prospective demand for green hotels by showing willingness to adopting their environmental-friendly practices. The current study aims to enhance better understanding of Millennials' perception about sustainable initiatives and to increase the prediction power of their intentions regarding green hotel practices in Egypt. In doing so, the study is exploring the relation among different factors; Millennials' environmental awareness, their acceptance of green practices and their willingness to pay more for them. Millennials' profile, their preferences and environmental decision-making process are brought under light to stimulate actions of hospitality decision-makers and hoteliers. Bearing in mind that responsible consumerism is depending on understanding the different influences on consumption. The study questionnaire was composed of four sections and it was distributed to random Egyptian travelers' blogs and Facebook groups, with approximately 8000 members. Analysis of variance test (ANOVA) was used to examine the study variables. The findings indicated that Millennials' environmental awareness will not be a significant factor in their acceptance of hotel green practices, as well as, their willingness to pay more for them. However, Millennials' acceptance of the level of hotel green practices will have an impact on their willingness to pay more. Millennials were found to have a noticeable level of environmental awareness but lack commitment to tolerating hotel green practices and their associated high prices.
Keywords: Millennials, environment, awareness, green practices, paying more, Egypt.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1083463 Survey of Potato Viral Infection Using Das-Elisa Method in Georgia
Authors: Maia Kukhaleishvili, Ekaterine Bulauri, Iveta Megrelishvili, Tamar Shamatava, Tamar Chipashvili
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Plant viruses can cause loss of yield and quality in a lot of important crops. Symptoms of pathogens are variable depending on the cultivars and virus strain. Selection of resistant potato varieties would reduce the risk of virus transmission and significant economic impact. Other way to avoid reduced harvest yields is regular potato seed production sampling and testing for viral infection. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence and distribution of viral diseases according potato cultivars for further selection of virus-free material in Georgia. During the summer 2015- 2016, 5 potato cultivars (Sante, Laura, Jelly, Red Sonia, Anushka) at 5 different farms located in Akhalkalaki were tested for 6 different potato viruses: Potato virus A (PVA), Potato virus M (PVM), Potato virus S (PVS), Potato virus X (PVX), Potato virus Y (PVY) and potato leaf roll virus (PLRV). A serological method, Double Antibody Sandwich-Enzyme linked Immunosorbent Assay (DASELISA) was used at the laboratory to analyze the results. The result showed that PVY (21.4%) and PLRV (19.7%) virus presence in collected samples was relatively high compared to others. Researched potato cultivars except Jelly and Laura were infected by PVY with different concentrations. PLRV was found only in three potato cultivars (Sante, Jelly, Red Sonia) and PVM virus (3.12%) was characterized with low prevalence. PVX, PVA and PVS virus infection was not reported. It would be noted that 7.9% of samples were containing PVY/PLRV mix infection. Based on the results it can be concluded that PVY and PLRV infections are dominant in all research cultivars. Therefore significant yield losses are expected. Systematic, long-term control of potato viral infection, especially seed-potatoes, must be regarded as the most important factor to increase seed productivity.Keywords: Diseases, infection, potato, virus.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 942462 Fertigation Use in Agriculture and Biosorption of Residual Nitrogen by Soil Microorganisms
Authors: A. Irina Mikajlo, B. Jakub Elbl, C. Antonín Kintl, D. Jindřich Kynický, E. Martin Brtnický, F. Jaroslav Záhora
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Present work deals with the possible use of fertigation in agriculture and its impact on the availability of mineral nitrogen (Nmin) in topsoil and subsoil horizons. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the effect of the organic matter presence in fertigation on microbial transformation and availability of mineral nitrogen forms. The main investigation reason is the potential use of pretreated waste water, as a source of organic carbon (Corg) and residual nutrients (Nmin) for fertigation. Laboratory experiment has been conducted to demonstrate the effect of the arable land fertilization method on the Nmin availability in different depths of the soil with the usage of model experimental containers filled with soil from topsoil and podsoil horizons that were taken from the precise area. Tufted hairgrass (Deschampsia caespitosa) has been chosen as a model plant. The water source protection zone Brezova nad Svitavou has been a research area where significant underground reservoirs of drinking water of the highest quality are located. From the second half of the last century local sources of drinking water show nitrogenous compounds increase that get here almost only from arable lands. Therefore, an attention of the following text focuses on the fate of mineral nitrogen in the complex plant-soil. Research results show that the fertigation application with Corg in a combination with mineral fertilizer can reduce the amount of Nmin leached from topsoil horizon of agricultural soils. In addition, some plants biomass production reduces may occur.Keywords: Fertigation, fertilizers, mineral nitrogen, soil microorganisms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1963461 Revisiting Domestication and Foreignisation Methods: Translating the Quran by the Hybrid Approach
Authors: Aladdin Al-Tarawneh
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The Quran, as it is the sacred book of Islam and considered the literal word of God (Allah) in Arabic, is highly translated into many languages; however, the foreignising or the literal approach excessively stains the quality and discredits the final product in the eyes of its receptors. Such an approach fails to capture the intended meaning of the Quran and to communicate it in any language. Therefore, this study is conducted to propose a different approach that seeks involving other ones according to a hybrid model. Indeed, this study challenges the binary adherence that is highly used in Translation Studies (TS) in general and in the translation of the Quran in particular. Drawing on the genuine fact that the Quran can be communicated in any language in terms of meaning, and the translation is not sacred; this paper approaches the translation of the Quran by blending different methods like domestication or foreignisation in a systematic way, avoiding the binary choice made by many translators. To reach this aim, the paper has a conceptual part that seeks to elucidate and clarify the main methods employed in TS, and criticise and modify them to propose the new hybrid approach (the hybrid model) for translating the Quran – that is, the deductive method. To support and validate the outcome of the previous part, a comparative model is employed in order to highlight the differences between the suggested translation and other widely used ones – that is, the inductive method. By applying this methodology, the paper proves that there is a deficiency of communicating the original meaning of the Quran in light of the foreignising approach. In conclusion, the paper suggests producing a Quran translation has to take into account the adoption of many techniques to express the meaning of the Quran as understood in the original, and to offer this understanding in English in the most native-like manner to serve the intended target readers.
Keywords: Quran translation, hybrid approach, domestication, foreignisation, hybrid model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1189460 Robot Technology Impact on Dyslexic Students’ English Learning
Authors: Khaled Hamdan, Abid Amorri, Fatima Hamdan
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Involving students in English language learning process and achieving an adequate English language proficiency in the target language can be a great challenge for both teachers and students. This can prove even a far greater challenge to engage students with special needs (Dyslexia) if they have physical impairment and inadequate mastery of basic communicative language competence/proficiency in the target language. From this perspective, technology like robots can probably be used to enhance learning process for the special needs students who have extensive communication needs, who face continuous struggle to interact with their peers and teachers and meet academic requirements. Robots, precisely NAO, can probably provide them with the perfect opportunity to practice social and communication skills, and meet their English academic requirements. This research paper aims to identify to what extent robots can be used to improve students’ social interaction and communication skills and to understand the potential for robotics-based education in motivating and engaging UAEU dyslexic students to meet university requirements. To reach this end, the paper will explore several factors that come into play – Motion Level-involving cognitive activities, Interaction Level-involving language processing, Behavior Level -establishing a close relationship with the robot and Appraisal Level- focusing on dyslexia students’ achievement in the target language.
Keywords: Dyslexia, robot technology, motion, interaction, behavior and appraisal levels, social and communication skills.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1396459 Evaluation of Short-Term Load Forecasting Techniques Applied for Smart Micro Grids
Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone
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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2602458 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process
Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá
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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.
Keywords: Risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1799457 A Linear Regression Model for Estimating Anxiety Index Using Wide Area Frontal Lobe Brain Blood Volume
Authors: Takashi Kaburagi, Masashi Takenaka, Yosuke Kurihara, Takashi Matsumoto
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Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most common mental illnesses today. It is believed to be caused by a combination of several factors, including stress. Stress can be quantitatively evaluated using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), one of the best indices to evaluate anxiety. Although STAI scores are widely used in applications ranging from clinical diagnosis to basic research, the scores are calculated based on a self-reported questionnaire. An objective evaluation is required because the subject may intentionally change his/her answers if multiple tests are carried out. In this article, we present a modified index called the “multi-channel Laterality Index at Rest (mc-LIR)” by recording the brain activity from a wider area of the frontal lobe using multi-channel functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). The presented index aims to measure multiple positions near the Fpz defined by the international 10-20 system positioning. Using 24 subjects, the dependencies on the number of measuring points used to calculate the mc-LIR and its correlation coefficients with the STAI scores are reported. Furthermore, a simple linear regression was performed to estimate the STAI scores from mc-LIR. The cross-validation error is also reported. The experimental results show that using multiple positions near the Fpz will improve the correlation coefficients and estimation than those using only two positions.
Keywords: Stress, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, frontal lobe, state-trait anxiety inventory score.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1166456 A Variety of Meteorological and Geographical Characteristics Effects on Watershed Responses to a Storm Event
Authors: Wen Hui Kuan, Chia Ling Chang, Pei Shan Lui
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The Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in Taiwan is the natural habitat of Formosan landlocked salmon. Human and agriculture activities gradually worsen water quality and impact the fish habitat negatively. To protect and manage Formosan landlocked salmon habitat, it is important to understand a variety land-uses affect on the watershed responses to storms. This study discusses watershed responses to the dry-day before a storm event and a variety of land-uses in the Wulin catchment. Under the land-use planning in the Wulin catchment, the peak flows during typhoon events do not have noticeable difference. However, the nutrient exports can be highly reduced under the strategies of restraining agriculture activities. Due to the higher affinity of P for soil than that of N, the exports of TN from overall Wuling catchment were much greater than Ortho-P. Agriculture mainly centralized in subbasin A, which is the important source of nutrients in nonpoint source discharge. The subbasin A supplied about 26% of the TN and 32% of the Ortho-P discharge in 2004, despite the fact it only covers 19% area of the Wuling catchment. The subbasin analysis displayed that the agricultural subbasin A exports higher nutrients per unit area than other forest subbasins. Additionally, the agricultural subbasin A contributed a higher percentage to total Ortho-P exports compares to TN. The results of subbasin analysis might imply the transport of Ortho-P was similar to the particulate matter which was mainly influenced by the runoff and affected by the desorption from soil particles while the TN (dominated as nitrate-N) was mainly influenced by base-flow.Keywords: Chiachiawan stream, Formosan landlocked salmon, modeling, typhoon, watershed response.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1291455 Vibration Analysis of Gas Turbine SIEMENS 162MW - V94.2 Related to Iran Power Plant Industry in Fars Province
Authors: Omid A. Zargar
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Vibration analysis of most critical equipment is considered as one of the most challenging activities in preventive maintenance. Utilities are heart of the process in big industrial plants like petrochemical zones. Vibration analysis methods and condition monitoring systems of these kinds of equipments are developed too much in recent years. On the other hand, there are too much operation factors like inlet and outlet pressures and temperatures that should be monitored. In this paper, some of the most effective concepts and techniques related to gas turbine vibration analysis are discussed. In addition, a gas turbine SIEMENS 162MW - V94.2 vibration case history related to Iran power industry in Fars province is explained. Vibration monitoring system and machinery technical specification are introduced. Besides, absolute and relative vibration trends, turbine and compressor orbits, Fast Fourier transform (FFT) in absolute vibrations, vibration modal analysis, turbine and compressor start up and shut down conditions, bode diagrams for relative vibrations, Nyquist diagrams and waterfall or three-dimensional FFT diagrams in startup and trip conditions are discussed with relative graphs. Furthermore, Split Resonance in gas turbines is discussed in details. Moreover, some updated vibration monitoring system, blade manufacturing technique and modern damping mechanism are discussed in this paper.
Keywords: Gas turbine, turbine compressor, vibration data collector, utility, condition monitoring, non-contact probe, Relative Vibration, Absolute Vibration, Split Resonance, Time Wave Form (TWF), Fast Fourier transform (FFT).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3682454 Simulating Human Behavior in (Un)Built Environments: Using an Actor Profiling Method
Authors: Hadas Sopher, Davide Schaumann, Yehuda E. Kalay
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This paper addresses the shortcomings of architectural computation tools in representing human behavior in built environments, prior to construction and occupancy of those environments. Evaluating whether a design fits the needs of its future users is currently done solely post construction, or is based on the knowledge and intuition of the designer. This issue is of high importance when designing complex buildings such as hospitals, where the quality of treatment as well as patient and staff satisfaction are of major concern. Existing computational pre-occupancy human behavior evaluation methods are geared mainly to test ergonomic issues, such as wheelchair accessibility, emergency egress, etc. As such, they rely on Agent Based Modeling (ABM) techniques, which emphasize the individual user. Yet we know that most human activities are social, and involve a number of actors working together, which ABM methods cannot handle. Therefore, we present an event-based model that manages the interaction between multiple Actors, Spaces, and Activities, to describe dynamically how people use spaces. This approach requires expanding the computational representation of Actors beyond their physical description, to include psychological, social, cultural, and other parameters. The model presented in this paper includes cognitive abilities and rules that describe the response of actors to their physical and social surroundings, based on the actors’ internal status. The model has been applied in a simulation of hospital wards, and showed adaptability to a wide variety of situated behaviors and interactions.Keywords: Agent based modeling, architectural design evaluation, event modeling, human behavior simulation, spatial cognition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1072453 Calcium Biochemical Indicators in a Group of Schoolchildren with Low Socioeconomic Status from Barranquilla, Colombia
Authors: Carmiña L. Vargas-Zapata, María A. Conde-Sarmiento, Maria Consuelo Maestre-Vargas
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Calcium is an essential element for good growth and development of the organism, and its requirement is increased at school age. Low socio-economic populations of developing countries such as Colombia may have food deficiency of this mineral in schoolchildren that could be reflected in calcium biochemical indicators, bone alterations and anthropometric indicators. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate some calcium biochemical indicators in a group of schoolchildren of low socioeconomic level from Barranquilla city and to correlate with body mass index. 60 schoolchildren aged 7 to 15 years were selected from Jesus’s Heart Educational Institution in Barranquilla-Atlántico, apparently healthy, without suffering from infectious or gastrointestinal diseases, without habits of drinking alcohol or smoking another hallucinogenic substance and without taking supplementation with calcium in the last six months or another substance that compromises bone metabolism. The research was approved by the ethics committee at Universidad del Atlántico. The selected children were invited to donate a blood and urine sample in a fasting time of 12 hours, the serum was separated by centrifugation and frozen at ˗20 ℃ until analyzed and the same was done with the urine sample. On the day of the biological collections, the weight and height of the students were measured to determine the nutritional status by BMI using the WHO tables. Calcium concentrations in serum and urine (SCa, UCa), alkaline phosphatase activity total and of bone origin (SAPT, SBAP) and urinary creatinine (UCr) were determined by spectrophotometric methods using commercial kits. Osteocalcin and Cross-linked N-telopeptides of type I collagen (NTx-1) in serum were measured with an enzyme-linked inmunosorbent assay. For statistical analysis the Statgraphics software Centurium XVII was used. 63% (n = 38) and 37% (n = 22) of the participants were male and female, respectively. 78% (n = 47), 5% (n = 3) and 17% (n = 10) had a normal, malnutrition and high nutritional status, respectively. The averages of evaluated indicators levels were (mean ± SD): 9.50 ± 1.06 mg/dL for SCa; 181.3 ± 64.3 U/L for SAPT, 143.8 ± 73.9 U/L for SBAP; 9.0 ± 3.48 ng/mL for osteocalcin and 101.3 ± 12.8 ng/mL for NTx-1. UCa level was 12.8 ± 7.7 mg/dL that adjusted with creatinine ranged from 0.005 to 0.395 mg/mg. Considering serum calcium values, approximately 7% of school children were hypocalcemic, 16% hypercalcemic and 77% normocalcemic. The indicators evaluated did not correlate with the BMI. Low values were observed in calcium urinary excretion and high in NTx-1, suggesting that mechanisms such as increase in renal retention of calcium and in bone remodeling may be contributing to calcium homeostasis.
Keywords: Calcium, calcium biochemical, indicators, school children, low socioeconomic status.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 533452 Two-Dimensional Observation of Oil Displacement by Water in a Petroleum Reservoir through Numerical Simulation and Application to a Petroleum Reservoir
Authors: Ahmad Fahim Nasiry, Shigeo Honma
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We examine two-dimensional oil displacement by water in a petroleum reservoir. The pore fluid is immiscible, and the porous media is homogenous and isotropic in the horizontal direction. Buckley-Leverett theory and a combination of Laplacian and Darcy’s law are used to study the fluid flow through porous media, and the Laplacian that defines the dispersion and diffusion of fluid in the sand using heavy oil is discussed. The reservoir is homogenous in the horizontal direction, as expressed by the partial differential equation. Two main factors which are observed are the water saturation and pressure distribution in the reservoir, and they are evaluated for predicting oil recovery in two dimensions by a physical and mathematical simulation model. We review the numerical simulation that solves difficult partial differential reservoir equations. Based on the numerical simulations, the saturation and pressure equations are calculated by the iterative alternating direction implicit method and the iterative alternating direction explicit method, respectively, according to the finite difference assumption. However, to understand the displacement of oil by water and the amount of water dispersion in the reservoir better, an interpolated contour line of the water distribution of the five-spot pattern, that provides an approximate solution which agrees well with the experimental results, is also presented. Finally, a computer program is developed to calculate the equation for pressure and water saturation and to draw the pressure contour line and water distribution contour line for the reservoir.Keywords: Numerical simulation, immiscible, finite difference, IADI, IADE, waterflooding.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1088451 Temperature Susceptibility of Multigrade Bitumen Asphalt and an Approach to Account for Temperature Variation through Deep Pavements
Authors: Brody R. Clark, Chaminda Gallage, John Yeaman
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Multigrade bitumen asphalt is a quality asphalt product that is not utilised in many places globally. Multigrade bitumen is believed to be less sensitive to temperature, which gives it an advantage over conventional binders. Previous testing has shown that asphalt temperature changes greatly with depth, but currently the industry standard is to nominate a single temperature for design. For detailed design of asphalt roads, perhaps asphalt layers should be divided into nominal layer depths and different modulus and fatigue equations/values should be used to reflect the temperatures of each respective layer. A collaboration of previous laboratory testing conducted on multigrade bitumen asphalt beams under a range of temperatures and loading conditions was analysed. The samples tested included 0% or 15% recycled asphalt pavement (RAP) to determine what impact the recycled material has on the fatigue life and stiffness of the pavement. This paper investigated the temperature susceptibility of multigrade bitumen asphalt pavements compared to conventional binders by combining previous testing that included conducting a sweep of fatigue tests, developing complex modulus master curves for each mix and a study on how pavement temperature changes through pavement depth. This investigation found that the final design of the pavement is greatly affected by the nominated pavement temperature and respective material properties. This paper has outlined a potential revision to the current design approach for asphalt pavements and proposes that further investigation is needed into pavement temperature and its incorporation into design.
Keywords: Asphalt, complex modulus, fatigue life, flexural stiffness, four-point bending, master curves, multigrade bitumen, thermal gradient.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 774450 Analytical and Numerical Results for Free Vibration of Laminated Composites Plates
Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes
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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.
Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 854449 Genome-Wide Analysis of BES1/BZR1 Gene Family in Five Plant Species
Authors: Jafar Ahmadi, Zhohreh Asiaban, Sedigheh Fabriki Ourang
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Brassinosteroids (BRs) regulate cell elongation, vascular differentiation, senescence, and stress responses. BRs signal through the BES1/BZR1 family of transcription factors, which regulate hundreds of target genes involved in this pathway. In this research a comprehensive genome-wide analysis was carried out in BES1/BZR1 gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana, Cucumis sativus, Vitis vinifera, Glycin max and Brachypodium distachyon. Specifications of the desired sequences, dot plot and hydropathy plot were analyzed in the protein and genome sequences of five plant species. The maximum amino acid length was attributed to protein sequence Brdic3g with 374aa and the minimum amino acid length was attributed to protein sequence Gm7g with 163aa. The maximum Instability index was attributed to protein sequence AT1G19350 equal with 79.99 and the minimum Instability index was attributed to protein sequence Gm5g equal with 33.22. Aliphatic index of these protein sequences ranged from 47.82 to 78.79 in Arabidopsis thaliana, 49.91 to 57.50 in Vitis vinifera, 55.09 to 82.43 in Glycin max, 54.09 to 54.28 in Brachypodium distachyon 55.36 to 56.83 in Cucumis sativus. Overall, data obtained from our investigation contributes a better understanding of the complexity of the BES1/BZR1 gene family and provides the first step towards directing future experimental designs to perform systematic analysis of the functions of the BES1/BZR1 gene family.
Keywords: BES1/BZR1, Brassinosteroids, Phylogenetic analysis, Transcription factor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2255448 Improving the Safety Performance of Workers by Assessing the Impact of Safety Culture on Workers’ Safety Behaviour in Nigeria Oil and Gas Industry: A Pilot Study in the Niger Delta Region
Authors: Efua Ehiaguina, Haruna Moda
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Interest in the development of appropriate safety culture in the oil and gas industry has taken centre stage among stakeholders in the industry. Human behaviour has been identified as a major contributor to occupational accidents, where abnormal activities associated with safety management are taken as normal behaviour. Poor safety culture is one of the major factors that influence employee’s safety behaviour at work, which may consequently result in injuries and accidents and strengthening such a culture can improve workers safety performance. Nigeria oil and gas industry has contributed to the growth and development of the country in diverse ways. However, in terms of safety and health of workers, this industry is a dangerous place to work as workers are often exposed to occupational safety and health hazard. To ascertain the impact of employees’ safety and how it impacts health and safety compliance within the local industry, online safety culture survey targeting frontline workers within the industry was administered covering major subjects that include; perception of management commitment and style of leadership; safety communication method and its resultant impact on employees’ behaviour; employee safety commitment and training needs. The preliminary result revealed that 54% of the participants feel that there is a lack of motivation from the management to work safely. In addition, 55% of participants revealed that employers place more emphasis on work delivery over employee’s safety on the installation. It is expected that the study outcome will provide measures aimed at strengthening and sustaining safety culture in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.
Keywords: Oil and gas safety, safety behaviour, safety culture, safety compliance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1294447 Constructing Masculinity through Images: Content Analysis of Lifestyle Magazines in Croatia
Authors: Marija Lončar, Zorana Šuljug Vučica, Magdalena Nigoević
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Diverse social, cultural and economic trends and changes in contemporary societies influence the ways masculinity is represented in a variety of media. Masculinity is constructed within media images as a dynamic process that changes slowly over time and is shaped by various social factors. In many societies, dominant masculinity is still associated with authority, heterosexuality, marriage, professional and financial success, ethnic dominance and physical strength. But contemporary media depict men in ways that suggest a change in the approach to media images. The number of media images of men, which promote men’s identity through their body, have increased. With the male body more scrutinized and commodified, it is necessary to highlight how the body is represented and which visual elements are crucial since the body has an important role in the construction of masculinities. The study includes content analysis of male body images in the advertisements of different men’s and women’s lifestyle magazines available in Croatia. The main aim was to explore how masculinities are currently being portrayed through body regarding age, physical appearance, fashion, touch and gaze. The findings are also discussed in relation to female images since women are central in many of the processes constructing masculinities and according to the recent conceptualization of masculinity. Although the construction of male images varies through body features, almost all of them convey the message that men’s identity could be managed through manipulation and by enhancing the appearance. Furthermore, they suggest that men should engage in “bodywork” through advertised products, activities and/or practices, in order to achieve their preferred social image.
Keywords: Body images, content analysis, lifestyle magazines, masculinity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1456446 The Perspectives of Preparing Psychology Practitioners in Armenian Universities
Authors: L. Petrosyan
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The problem of psychologist training remains a key priority in Armenia. During the Soviet period, the notion of a psychologist was obscure not only in Armenia but also in other Soviet republics. The breakup of the Soviet Union triggered a gradual change in this area activating the cooperation with specialists from other countries. The need for recovery from the psychological trauma caused by the 1988 earthquake pushed forward the development of practical psychology in Armenia. This phenomenon led to positive changes in perception of and interest to a psychologist profession.Armenian universities started designing special programs for psychologists’ preparation. Armenian psychologists combined their efforts in the field of training relevant specialists. During the recent years, the Bologna educational system was introduced in Armenia which led to implementation of education quality improvement programs. Nevertheless, even today the issue of psychologists’ training is not yet settled in Armenian universities. So far graduate psychologists haven’t got a clear idea of personal and professional qualities of a psychologist. Recently, as a result of educational reforms, the psychology curricula underwent changes, but so far they have not led to a desired outcome. Almost all curricula in certain specialties are aimed to form professional competencies and strengthen practical skills. A survey conducted in Armenia aimed to identify what are the ideas of young psychology specialists on the image of a psychologist. The survey respondents were 45 specialists holding bachelor’s degree as well as 30 master degree graduates, who have not been working yet. The research reveals that we need to change the approach of preparing psychology practitioners in the universities of Armenia. Such an approach to psychologist training will make it possible to train qualified specialists for enhancement of modern psychology theory and practice.
Keywords: Practitioners, Psychology Degree, study, professional competencies.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2070445 Effect of L-Dopa on Performance and Carcass Characteristics in Broiler Chickens
Authors: B. R. O. Omidiwura, A. F. Agboola, E. A. Iyayi
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Pure form of L-Dopa is used to enhance muscular development, fat breakdown and suppress Parkinson disease in humans. However, the L-Dopa in mucuna seed, when present with other antinutritional factors, causes nutritional disorders in monogastric animals. Information on the utilisation of pure L-Dopa in monogastric animals is scanty. Therefore, effect of L-Dopa on growth performance and carcass characteristics in broiler chickens was investigated. Two hundred and forty one-day-old chicks were allotted to six treatments, which consisted of a positive control (PC) with standard energy (3100Kcal/Kg) and negative control (NC) with high energy (3500Kcal/Kg). The rest 4 diets were NC+0.1, NC+0.2, NC+0.3 and NC+0.4% L-Dopa, respectively. All treatments had 4 replicates in a completely randomized design. Body weight gain, final weight, feed intake, dressed weight and carcass characteristics were determined. Body weight gain and final weight of birds fed PC were 1791.0 and 1830.0g, NC+0.1% L-Dopa were 1827.7 and 1866.7g and NC+0.2% L-Dopa were 1871.9 and 1910.9g respectively, and the feed intake of PC (3231.5g), were better than other treatments. The dressed weight at 1375.0g and 1357.1g of birds fed NC+0.1% and NC+0.2% L-Dopa, respectively, were similar but better than other treatments. Also, the thigh (202.5g and 194.9g) and the breast meat (413.8g and 410.8g) of birds fed NC+0.1% and NC+0.2% L-Dopa, respectively, were similar but better than birds fed other treatments. The drum stick of birds fed NC+0.1% L-Dopa (220.5g) was observed to be better than birds on other diets. Meat to bone ratio and relative organ weights were not affected across treatments. L-Dopa extract, at levels tested, had no detrimental effect on broilers, rather better bird performance and carcass characteristics were observed especially at 0.1% and 0.2% L-Dopa inclusion rates. Therefore, 0.2% inclusion is recommended in diets of broiler chickens for improved performance and carcass characteristics.Keywords: Broilers, Carcass characteristics, L-Dopa, performance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1451444 Optimization of Assembly and Welding of Complex 3D Structures on the Base of Modeling with Use of Finite Elements Method
Authors: M. N. Zelenin, V. S. Mikhailov, R. P. Zhivotovsky
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It is known that residual welding deformations give negative effect to processability and operational quality of welded structures, complicating their assembly and reducing strength. Therefore, selection of optimal technology, ensuring minimum welding deformations, is one of the main goals in developing a technology for manufacturing of welded structures. Through years, JSC SSTC has been developing a theory for estimation of welding deformations and practical activities for reducing and compensating such deformations during welding process. During long time a methodology was used, based on analytic dependence. This methodology allowed defining volumetric changes of metal due to welding heating and subsequent cooling. However, dependences for definition of structures deformations, arising as a result of volumetric changes of metal in the weld area, allowed performing calculations only for simple structures, such as units, flat sections and sections with small curvature. In case of complex 3D structures, estimations on the base of analytic dependences gave significant errors. To eliminate this shortage, it was suggested to use finite elements method for resolving of deformation problem. Here, one shall first calculate volumes of longitudinal and transversal shortenings of welding joints using method of analytic dependences and further, with obtained shortenings, calculate forces, which action is equivalent to the action of active welding stresses. Further, a finiteelements model of the structure is developed and equivalent forces are added to this model. Having results of calculations, an optimal sequence of assembly and welding is selected and special measures to reduce and compensate welding deformations are developed and taken.
Keywords: Finite elements method, modeling, expected welding deformations, welding, assembling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1756443 Decision Support System for Hospital Selection in Emergency Medical Services: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach
Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco
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The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.
Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 233