Search results for: mathematical model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7778

Search results for: mathematical model.

7178 Fuzzy PID Controller with Coupled Rules for a Nonlinear Quarter Car Model

Authors: Şaban Çetin, Özgür Demir

Abstract:

In this study, Fuzzy PID Control scheme is designed for an active suspension system. The main goal of an active suspension system for using in a vehicle model is reducing body deflections and handling high comfort for a passenger car. The present system was modelled as a two-degree-of-freedom (2-DOF) nonlinear vehicle model.

Keywords: Active suspension system, Fuzzy PID controller, a nonlinear quarter car model.

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7177 Numerical Investigation of Hygrothermal Behavior on Porous Building Materials

Authors: Faiza Mnasri, Kamilia Abahri, Mohammed El Ganaoui, Slimane Gabsi

Abstract:

Most of the building materials are considered porous, and composed of solid matrix and pores. In the pores, the moisture can be existed in two phases: liquid and vapor. Thus, the mass balance equation is comprised of various moisture driving potentials that translate the movement of the different existing phases occupying pores and the hygroscopic behavior of a porous construction material. This study suggests to resolve a hygrothermal mathematical model of heat and mass transfers in different porous building materials by a numerical investigation. Thereby, the evolution of temperature and moisture content fields has been processed. So, numerous series of hygrothermal calculation on several cases of wall are exposed. Firstly, a case of monolayer wall of massive wood has been treated. In this part, we have compared the numerical solution of the model on one and two dimensions and the effect of dimensional space has been evaluated. In the second case, three building materials (concrete, wood fiberboard and wooden insulation) are tested separately with the same boundary conditions and their hygrothermal behavior are compared. The evaluation of the exchange of heat and air at the interface between the wall and the interior ambiance is carried.

Keywords: Building materials, heat transfer, moisture diffusion, numerical solution.

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7176 Effect of Different Model Drugs on the Properties of Model Membranes from Fishes

Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, T. G. D. Phu, M. Helmis

Abstract:

A suitable model membrane to study the pharmacological effect of pharmaceutical products is human stratum corneum because this layer of human skin is the outermost layer and it is an important barrier to be passed through. Other model membranes which were also used are for example skins from pig, mouse, reptile or fish. We are interested in fish skins in this project. The advantages of the fish skins are, that they can be obtained from the supermarket or fish shop. However, the fish skins should be freshly prepared and used directly without storage. In order to understand the effect of different model drugs e.g. lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid on the properties of the model membrane from various types of fishes e.g. trout, salmon, cod, plaice permeation tests were performed and differential scanning calorimetry was applied.

Keywords: Fish skin, model membrane, permeation, DSC, lidocaine HCl, resveratrol, paracetamol, ibuprofen, acetyl salicylic acid.

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7175 Auction Theory: Bidder-s Perspective in a Public Out-Cry English Auction

Authors: Jagannath Aryal, Don Kulasiri, Garth A. Carnaby

Abstract:

This paper provides an overview of auction theory literature. We present a general review on literature of various auctions and focus ourselves specifically on an English auction. We are interested in modelling bidder-s behavior in an English auction environment. And hence, we present an overview of the New Zealand wool auction followed by a model that would describe a bidder-s decision making behavior from the New Zealand wool auction. The mathematical assumptions in an English auction environment are demonstrated from the perspective of the New Zealand wool auction.

Keywords: Bidder, English auction, New Zealand, Wool

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7174 On Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model

Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

Abstract:

We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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7173 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation

Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi

Abstract:

In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.

Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.

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7172 Brainwave Classification for Brain Balancing Index (BBI) via 3D EEG Model Using k-NN Technique

Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

Abstract:

In this paper, the comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithms for classifying the 3D EEG model in brain balancing is presented. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 51 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, maximum PSD values were extracted as features from the model. There are three indexes for balanced brain; index 3, index 4 and index 5. There are significant different of the EEG signals due to the brain balancing index (BBI). Alpha-α (8–13 Hz) and beta-β (13–30 Hz) were used as input signals for the classification model. The k-NN classification result is 88.46% accuracy. These results proved that k-NN can be used in order to predict the brain balancing application.

Keywords: Brain balancing, kNN, power spectral density, 3D EEG model.

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7171 Generalization of SGIP Surface Tension Force Model in Three-Dimensional Flows and Compare to Other Models in Interfacial Flows

Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

Abstract:

In this paper, the two-dimensional stagger grid interface pressure (SGIP) model has been generalized and presented into three-dimensional form. For this purpose, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows have been investigated and compared with each other. The VOF method has been used for tracking the interface. To show the ability of the SGIP model for three-dimensional flows in comparison with other models, pressure contours, maximum spurious velocities, norm spurious flow velocities and pressure jump error for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas are calculated using different models. It has been pointed out that SGIP model in comparison with the CSF, CSS and PCIL models produces the least maximum and norm spurious velocities. Additionally, the new model produces more accurate results in calculating the pressure jumps across the interface for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas which is generated in surface tension force.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid; SGIP model; CSS model; CSF model; PCIL model; surface tension force; spurious currents.

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7170 An Ising-based Model for the Spread of Infection

Authors: Christian P. Crisostomo, Chrysline Margus N. Piñol

Abstract:

A zero-field ferromagnetic Ising model is utilized to simulate the propagation of infection in a population that assumes a square lattice structure. The rate of infection increases with temperature. The disease spreads faster among individuals with low J values. Such effect, however, diminishes at higher temperatures.

Keywords: Epidemiology, Ising model, lattice models

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7169 Kalman Filter for Bilinear Systems with Application

Authors: Abdullah E. Al-Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new kind of the bilinear systems in the form of state space model. The evolution of this system depends on the product of state vector by its self. The well known Lotak Volterra and Lorenz models are special cases of this new model. We also present here a generalization of Kalman filter which is suitable to work with the new bilinear model. An application to real measurements is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Bilinear systems, state space model, Kalman filter.

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7168 Effect of Model Dimension in Numerical Simulation on Assessment of Water Inflow to Tunnel in Discontinues Rock

Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

Abstract:

Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: Water inflow, Tunnel, Discontinues rock, Numerical simulation.

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7167 Analytical Camera Model Supplemented with Influence of Temperature Variations

Authors: Peter Podbreznik, Božidar Potocnik

Abstract:

A camera in the building site is exposed to different weather conditions. Differences between images of the same scene captured with the same camera arise also due to temperature variations. The influence of temperature changes on camera parameters were modelled and integrated into existing analytical camera model. Modified camera model enables quantitatively assessing the influence of temperature variations.

Keywords: camera calibration, analytical model, intrinsic parameters, extrinsic parameters, temperature variations.

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7166 Applying the Crystal Model Approach on Light Nuclei for Calculating Radii and Density Distribution

Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model namely, the crystal model, has been modified to calculate radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to 8Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid state physics which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has been obtained from the analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in general form. The equation used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in 6Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+6,7Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of 9Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear lattice, crystal model, light nuclei, nuclear density distributions

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7165 A Quadcopter Stability Analysis: A Case Study Using Simulation

Authors: C. S. Bianca Sabrina, N. Egidio Raimundo, L. Alexandre Baratella, C. H. João Paulo

Abstract:

This paper aims to present a study, with the theoretical concepts and applications of the Quadcopter, using the MATLAB simulator. In order to use this tool, the study of the stability of the drone through a Proportional - Integral - Derivative (PID) controller will be presented. After the stability study, some tests are done on the simulator and its results will be presented. From the mathematical model, it is possible to find the Newton-Euler angles, so that it is possible to stabilize the quadcopter in a certain position in the air, starting from the ground. In order to understand the impact of the controllers gain values on the stabilization of the Euler-Newton angles, three conditions will be tested with different controller gain values.

Keywords: Controllers, drones, quadcopter, stability.

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7164 Information Resource Management Maturity Model

Authors: Afshari H., Khosravi Sh.

Abstract:

Nowadays there are more than thirty maturity models in different knowledge areas. Maturity model is an area of interest that contributes organizations to find out where they are in a specific knowledge area and how to improve it. As Information Resource Management (IRM) is the concept that information is a major corporate resource and must be managed using the same basic principles used to manage other assets, assessment of the current IRM status and reveal the improvement points can play a critical role in developing an appropriate information structure in organizations. In this paper we proposed a framework for information resource management maturity model (IRM3) that includes ten best practices for the maturity assessment of the organizations' IRM.

Keywords: Information resource management (IRM), information resource management maturity model (IRM3), maturity model, best practice.

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7163 Permanence and Almost Periodic Solutions to an Epidemic Model with Delay and Feedback Control

Authors: Chenxi Yang, Zhouhong Li

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with an epidemic model with delay. By using the comparison theorem of the differential equation and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, Some sufficient conditions which guarantee the permeance and existence of a unique globally attractive positive almost periodic solution of the model are obtain. Finally, an example is employed to illustrate our result.

Keywords: Permanence, Almost periodic solution, Epidemic model, Delay, Feedback control.

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7162 Auction Theory: Bidder's Perspective in an English Auction Environment

Authors: J. Aryal, D. Kulasiri, G. A. Carnaby

Abstract:

This paper provides an overview of auction theory literature. We present a general review on literature of various auctions and focus ourselves specifically on an English auction. We are interested in modelling bidder's behavior in an English auction environment. And hence, we present an overview of the New Zealand wool auction followed by a model that would describe a bidder's decision making behavior from the New Zealand wool auction. The mathematical assumptions in an English auction environment are demonstrated from the perspective of the New Zealand wool auction.

Keywords: Bidder, English auction, New Zealand, wool.

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7161 3D Dense Correspondence for 3D Dense Morphable Face Shape Model

Authors: Tae in Seol, Sun-Tae Chung, Seongwon Cho

Abstract:

Realistic 3D face model is desired in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. Construction of 3D face model is composed of 1) building a face shape model and 2) rendering the face shape model. Thus, building a realistic 3D face shape model is an essential step for realistic 3D face model. Recently, 3D morphable model is successfully introduced to deal with the various human face shapes. 3D dense correspondence problem should be precedently resolved for constructing a realistic 3D dense morphable face shape model. Several approaches to 3D dense correspondence problem in 3D face modeling have been proposed previously, and among them optical flow based algorithms and TPS (Thin Plate Spline) based algorithms are representative. Optical flow based algorithms require texture information of faces, which is sensitive to variation of illumination. In TPS based algorithms proposed so far, TPS process is performed on the 2D projection representation in cylindrical coordinates of the 3D face data, not directly on the 3D face data and thus errors due to distortion in data during 2D TPS process may be inevitable. In this paper, we propose a new 3D dense correspondence algorithm for 3D dense morphable face shape modeling. The proposed algorithm does not need texture information and applies TPS directly on 3D face data. Through construction procedures, it is observed that the proposed algorithm constructs realistic 3D face morphable model reliably and fast.

Keywords: 3D Dense Correspondence, 3D Morphable Face Shape Model, 3D Face Modeling.

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7160 Towards an AS Level Network Performance Model

Authors: Huan Xiong, Ming Chen

Abstract:

In order to research Internet quantificationally and better model the performance of network, this paper proposes a novel AS level network performance model (MNPM), it takes autonomous system (AS) as basic modeling unit, measures E2E performance between any two outdegrees of an AS and organizes measurement results into matrix form which called performance matrix (PM). Inter-AS performance calculation is defined according to performance information stored in PM. Simulation has been implemented to verify the correctness of MNPM and a practical application of MNPM (network congestion detection) is given.

Keywords: AS, network performance, model, metric, congestion.

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7159 Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Threephase Small Power Induction Motor

Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

Abstract:

This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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7158 Machining Parameters Optimization of Developed Yttria Stabilized Zirconia Toughened Alumina Ceramic Inserts While Machining AISI 4340 Steel

Authors: Nilrudra Mandal, B Doloi, B Mondal

Abstract:

An attempt has been made to investigate the machinability of zirconia toughened alumina (ZTA) inserts while turning AISI 4340 steel. The insert was prepared by powder metallurgy process route and the machining experiments were performed based on Response Surface Methodology (RSM) design called Central Composite Design (CCD). The mathematical model of flank wear, cutting force and surface roughness have been developed using second order regression analysis. The adequacy of model has been carried out based on Analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques. It can be concluded that cutting speed and feed rate are the two most influential factor for flank wear and cutting force prediction. For surface roughness determination, the cutting speed & depth of cut both have significant contribution. Key parameters effect on each response has also been presented in graphical contours for choosing the operating parameter preciously. 83% desirability level has been achieved using this optimized condition.

Keywords: Analysis of variance (ANOVA), Central Composite Design (CCD), Response Surface Methodology (RSM), Zirconia Toughened Alumina (ZTA).

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7157 Genetic Algorithm and Padé-Moment Matching for Model Order Reduction

Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

Abstract:

A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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7156 Learning Human-Like Color Categorization through Interaction

Authors: Rinaldo Christian Tanumara, Ming Xie, Chi Kit Au

Abstract:

Human perceives color in categories, which may be identified using color name such as red, blue, etc. The categorization is unique for each human being. However despite the individual differences, the categorization is shared among members in society. This allows communication among them, especially when using color name. Sociable robot, to live coexist with human and become part of human society, must also have the shared color categorization, which can be achieved through learning. Many works have been done to enable computer, as brain of robot, to learn color categorization. Most of them rely on modeling of human color perception and mathematical complexities. Differently, in this work, the computer learns color categorization through interaction with humans. This work aims at developing the innate ability of the computer to learn the human-like color categorization. It focuses on the representation of color categorization and how it is built and developed without much mathematical complexity.

Keywords: Color categorization, color learning, machinelearning, color naming.

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7155 A Bi-Objective Model for Location-Allocation Problem within Queuing Framework

Authors: Amirhossein Chambari, Seyed Habib Rahmaty, Vahid Hajipour, Aida Karimi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a bi-objective model for the facility location problem under a congestion system. The idea of the model is motivated by applications of locating servers in bank automated teller machines (ATMS), communication networks, and so on. This model can be specifically considered for situations in which fixed service facilities are congested by stochastic demand within queueing framework. We formulate this model with two perspectives simultaneously: (i) customers and (ii) service provider. The objectives of the model are to minimize (i) the total expected travelling and waiting time and (ii) the average facility idle-time. This model represents a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem which belongs to the class of NP-hard problems. In addition, to solve the model, two metaheuristic algorithms including nondominated sorting genetic algorithms (NSGA-II) and non-dominated ranking genetic algorithms (NRGA) are proposed. Besides, to evaluate the performance of the two algorithms some numerical examples are produced and analyzed with some metrics to determine which algorithm works better.

Keywords: Queuing, Location, Bi-objective, NSGA-II, NRGA

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7154 Meshed Antenna for Ku-band Wireless Communication

Authors: Chokri Baccouch, Chayma Bahhar, Hedi Sakli, Nizar Sakli

Abstract:

In this article, we present the combination of an antenna patch structure with a photovoltaic cell in one device for telecommunication applications in isolated environments. The radiating patch element of a patch antenna was replaced by a solar cell. DC current generation is the original feature of the solar cell, but now it was additionally able to receive and transmit electromagnetic waves. A mathematical model which serves in the minimization of power losses of the cell and therefore the improvement in conversion performance was studied. Simulation results of this antenna show a resonance at a frequency of 16.55 GHz in Ku-band with a gain of 4.24 dBi.

Keywords: Electric power collected, optical and electrical losses, optimization of the grid of collection, patch antenna, photovoltaic cell.

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7153 Optimal Controller Design for Linear Magnetic Levitation Rail System

Authors: Tooraj Hakim Elahi, Abdolamir Nekoubin

Abstract:

In many applications, magnetic suspension systems are required to operate over large variations in air gap. As a result, the nonlinearities inherent in most types of suspensions have a significant impact on performance. Specifically, it may be difficult to design a linear controller which gives satisfactory performance, stability, and disturbance rejection over a wide range of operating points. in this paper an optimal controller based on discontinuous mathematical model of the system for an electromagnetic suspension system which is applied in magnetic trains has been designed . Simulations show that the new controller can adapt well to the variance of suspension mass and gap, and keep its dynamic performance, thus it is superior to the classic controller.

Keywords: Magnetic Levitation, optimal controller, mass and gap

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7152 2D Numerical Analysis of Sao Paulo Tunnel

Authors: A.H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method and Serendipity eight nodes element are used for determining of ground surface settlement due to tunneling. Linear element with elastic behavior is used for modeling of lining. Modified Generalized plasticity model with nonassociated flow rule is applied for analysis of a tunnel in Sao Paulo – Brazil. The tunnel had analyzed by Lades- model with 16 parameters. In this work modified Generalized Plasticity is used with 10 parameters, also Mohr-Coulomb model is used to analysis the tunnel. The results show good agreement with observed results of field data by modified Generalized Plasticity model than other models. The obtained result by Mohr-Coulomb model shows less settlement than other model due to excavation.

Keywords: Non-associated flow rule, Generalized plasticity, tunnel excavation, Excavation method.

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7151 An Effective Framework for Chinese Syntactic Parsing

Authors: Xing Li, Chengqing Zong

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective framework for Chinesesyntactic parsing, which includes two parts. The first one is a parsing framework, which is based on an improved bottom-up chart parsingalgorithm, and integrates the idea of the beam search strategy of N bestalgorithm and heuristic function of A* algorithm for pruning, then get multiple parsing trees. The second is a novel evaluation model, which integrates contextual and partial lexical information into traditional PCFG model and defines a new score function. Using this model, the tree with the highest score is found out as the best parsing tree. Finally,the contrasting experiment results are given. Keywords?syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

Keywords: syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

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7150 Optimization of Inverse Kinematics of a 3R Robotic Manipulator using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: J. Ramírez A., A. Rubiano F.

Abstract:

In this paper the direct kinematic model of a multiple applications three degrees of freedom industrial manipulator, was developed using the homogeneous transformation matrices and the Denavit - Hartenberg parameters, likewise the inverse kinematic model was developed using the same method, verifying that in the workload border the inverse kinematic presents considerable errors, therefore a genetic algorithm was implemented to optimize the model improving greatly the efficiency of the model.

Keywords: Direct Kinematic, Genetic Algorithm, InverseKinematic, Optimization, Robot Manipulator

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7149 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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