Search results for: Predicting political risk.

Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

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The present study deals with the modeling and simulation of flow through an annular reactor at different hydrodynamic conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the flow behavior. CFD modeling was utilized to predict velocity distribution and average velocity in the annular geometry. The results of CFD simulations were compared with the mathematically derived equations and already developed correlations for validation purposes. CFD modeling was found suitable for predicting the flow characteristics in annular geometry under laminar flow conditions. It was observed that CFD also provides local values of the parameters of interest in addition to the average values for the simulated geometry.

Keywords: Annular reactor, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), hydrodynamics, Rhodamine B

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Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

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A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

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This study presents a simple inverse heat transfer procedure for predicting the wall erosion and the time-varying thickness of the protective bank that covers the inside surface of the refractory brick wall of a melting furnace. The direct problem is solved by using the Finite-Volume model. The melting/solidification process is modeled using the enthalpy method. The inverse procedure rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt method combined with the Broyden method. The effect of the location of the temperature sensors and of the measurement noise on the inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of the temperature sensor.

Keywords: Melting furnace, inverse heat transfer, enthalpy method, Levenberg–Marquardt Method.

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: Western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC Megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects.

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Authors: Su-Young Jeong, Won-Kee Hong, Seon-Chee Park, Gyun-Taek Lim, Eric Kim

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Researchers investigate arious strategies to develop composite beams and maximize the structural advantages. This study attempted to conduct experiments and analysis of changes in the neutral axis of positive moments of a Green Beam. Strain compatibility analysis was used, and its efficiency was demonstrated by comparing experimental and analytical values. In the comparison of neutral axis, the difference between experimental and analytical values was found to range from 8.8~26.2%. It was determined that strain compatibility analysis can be useful for predicting the behaviors of composite beams, with the ability to predict the behavior of not only the elastic location of the composite member, but also of the plastic location

Keywords: Composite beam, Strain compatibility, Neutral axis, Green Beam

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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Authors: Nariman O. Kandil, Ehab K. Abou-Elkheir, Amr M. Kotb

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Effective IT governance guarantees the strategic alignment of IT and business goals, risk mitigation control, and better IT and business performance. This study seeks to examine empirically the extent of IT governance implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX30) and its determinants. Accordingly, 18 semi-structured interviews, face to face, phone, and video-conferencing, using various tools (e.g., WebEx, Zoom, and Microsoft Teams) were undertaken at the interviewees’ offices in Egypt between the end of November 2019 and the end of August 2020. Results suggest that there are variances in the extent of IT Governance (ITG) implementation within the firms listed on the EGX30, mainly caused by the industry type and internal and external triggers. The results also suggest that the organization size, the type of auditor, the criticality of the industry, the effective processes & key performance indicators (KPIs), and the information intensity expertise of the chief information officers (CIOs) have a significant impact on ITG implementation within the firms.

Keywords: Effective IT governance, Egyptian Market, information security, risk controls.

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Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro, Helenice Vital

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The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed through the modelling technique. Out of the total study area, 8.26% is very high risk, 14.21% high, 9.36% medium, 22.46% low and 7.35% in the very low vulnerable category, due to costal components. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 225.2 km² and 397 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1m and 10m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential, industrial and recreational areas. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as industrializations, building regulation, urban growth planning and agriculture, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.

Keywords: Coastal planning, land use, satellite data, vulnerability.

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

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In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. Samples were collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) μg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) μg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4-253.8) μg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) μg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 μg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: Air pollution, Respiratory diseases, AirQ2.2.3, Makkah.

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Authors: Lowai Abed

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The differences in languages play a big role in cross-cultural communication. If meanings are not translated accurately, the risk can be crucial not only on an interpersonal level, but also on the international and political levels. The use of metaphorical language by politicians can cause great confusion, often leading to statements being misconstrued. In these situations, it is the translators who struggle to put forward the intended meaning with clarity and this makes translation an important field to study and analyze when it comes to cross-cultural communication. Owing to the growing importance of language and the power of translation in politics, this research analyzes part of President Bush’s speech in 2001 in which he used the word “Crusade” which caused his statement to be misconstrued. The research uses a discourse analysis of cross-cultural communication literature which provides answers supported by historical, linguistic, and communicative perspectives. The first finding indicates that the word ‘crusade’ carries different meaning and significance in the narratives of the Western world when compared to the Middle East. The second one is that, linguistically, maintaining cultural meanings through translation is quite difficult and challenging. Third, when it comes to the cross-cultural communication perspective, the common and frequent usage of literal translation is a sign of poor strategies being followed in translation training. Based on the example of Bush’s speech, this paper hopes to highlight the weak practices in translation in cross-cultural communication which are still commonly used across the world. Translation studies have to take issues such as this seriously and attempt to find a solution. In every language, there are words and phrases that have cultural, historical and social meanings that are woven into the language. Literal translation is not the solution for this problem because that strategy is unable to convey these meanings in the target language.

Keywords: Crusade, metaphor, mistranslation, war in terror.

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Authors: Masaru Furukawa, Shigeki Hirobayashi, Tadanobu Misawa

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Nowadays, IT/Business strategy alignment is still a key topic of concern among managers worldwide. Change has always being considered the primary challenge affecting the strategy alignment. Planning for alignment in uncertain and dynamic changing environments is burdened with risk as organizations seek to understand how much flexibility to build in their management information system so as to maintain high levels of alignment. The literature review showed that there is a tight relationship between IT infrastructure flexibility and the strategy alignment with strategic information systems (SIS) planning serving as a moderator of this relationship, and that emphasized the needs for organizations to use SIS planning consistently and to monitor the relationship between IS flexibility and the alignment. This paper presents the procedure of SIS planning with IS flexibility renovation via future oriented analysis of POC (penalty of change) as a function of cost and time. Using this SIS planning and monitoring IS flexibility and the alignment during periods of increased change in dynamic and uncertain environments reduces the risk that could transform IT into an inhibitor rather than an enabler of change.

Keywords: IT/Business strategy alignment, strategic information systems (SIS) planning, IS flexibility, penalty of change (POC).

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Authors: Kudzai Ashley Tagwira, Michelle Marle Marais, Tracy Anne Ludwig, Rutendo Precious Chidziva, Mavis Nyaradzo Munodawafa, Wendy M. Wrench, Roman Tandlich

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Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing with soap should be run among Rhodes University students. If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be decreased and emergency health management simplified.

Keywords: Awareness, Food hygiene, Infectious disease spread, Undergraduate students.

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Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

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Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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Authors: Jin-Hee Park, Yong-Gyu Lee, Gilwon Yoon

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Wireless capsule endoscopy provides real-time images in the digestive tract. Capsule images are usually low resolution and are diverse images due to travel through various regions of human body. Color information has been a primary reference in predicting abnormalities such as bleeding. Often color is not sufficient for this purpose. In this study, we took morphological shapes into account as additional, but important criterion. First, we processed gastric images in order to indentify various objects in the image. Then, we analyzed color information in the object. In this way, we could remove unnecessary information and increase the accuracy. Compared to our previous investigations, we could handle images of various degrees of brightness and improve our diagnostic algorithm.

Keywords: Capsule Endoscopy, HSV model, Image processing, Object Identification, Color Separation.

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Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

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With ever-increasing use of equipment, device or more generally any electrical or electronic system, the chance of Electromagnetic incompatibility incidents has considerably increased which demands more attention to ensure the possible risks of these technologies. Therefore, complying with certain Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) rules and not overtaking an acceptable level of radiated emissions are utmost importance for the diffusion of electronic products. In this paper, developed measure tool and a convolutional neural network were used to propose a method to reduce the required time to carry out the final measurement phase of Electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurement according to the norm EN 55032 by predicting the radiated emission and determining the height of the antenna that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: Antenna height, Convolutional Neural Network, Electromagnetic Compatibility, Mean Absolute Error, position error.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

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Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: Igor Pejic

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The main focus of this research will be on analyzing correlative links between terrorism as an asymmetrical threat and the consequences it leaves on conventional security forces. The methodology behind the research will include qualitative research methods focusing on comparative analysis of books, scientific papers, documents and other sources, in order to deduce, explore and formulate the results of the research. With the coming of the 21^st century and the rising multi-polar, new world threats quickly emerged. The realistic approach in international relations deems that relations among nations are in a constant state of anarchy since there are no definitive rules and the distribution of power varies widely. International relations are further characterized by egoistic and self-orientated human nature, anarchy or absence of a higher government, security and lack of morality. The asymmetry of power is also reflected on countries' security capabilities and its abilities to project power. With the coming of the new millennia and the rising multi-polar world order, the asymmetry of power can be also added as an important trait of the global society which consequently brought new threats. Among various others, terrorism is probably the most well-known, well-based and well-spread asymmetric threat. In today's global political arena, terrorism is used by state and non-state actors to fulfill their political agendas. Terrorism is used as an all-inclusive tool for regime change, subversion or a revolution. Although the nature of terrorist groups is somewhat inconsistent, terrorism as a security and social phenomenon has a one constant which is reflected in its political dimension. The state's security apparatus, which was embodied in the form of conventional armed forces, is now becoming fragile, unable to tackle new threats and to a certain extent outdated. Conventional security forces were designed to defend or engage an exterior threat which is more or less symmetric and visible. On the other hand, terrorism as an asymmetrical threat is a part of hybrid, special or asymmetric warfare in which specialized units, institutions or facilities represent the primary pillars of security. In today's global society, terrorism is probably the most acute problem which can paralyze entire countries and their political systems. This problem, however, cannot be engaged on an open field of battle, but rather it requires a different approach in which conventional armed forces cannot be used traditionally and their role must be adjusted. The research will try to shed light on the phenomena of modern day terrorism and to prove its correlation with the state conventional armed forces. States are obliged to adjust their security apparatus to the new realism of global society and terrorism as an asymmetrical threat which is a side-product of the unbalanced world.

Keywords: Asymmetrical warfare, conventional forces, security, terrorism.

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Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, Sandeep HM, Biradar MS

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Essential hypertension (HTN) usually clusters with other cardiovascular risk factors such as age, overweight, diabetes, insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The target organ damage (TOD) such as left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria (MA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and cognitive dysfunction takes place early in course of hypertension. Though the prevalence of hypertension is high in India, the relationship between microalbuminuria and target organ damage in hypertension is not well studied. This study aim at detecting MA in essential hypertension and its relation to severity of HTN, duration of HTN, body mass index (BMI), age and TOD such as HTN retinopathy and acute coronary syndrome The present study was done in 100 patients of essential hypertension non diabetics admitted to B.L.D.E.University-s Sri B.M.Patil Medical College, Bijapur, from October 2008 to April 2011. The patients underwent detailed history and clinical examination. Early morning 5 ml of urine sample was collected & MA was estimated by immunoturbidometry method. The relationship of MA with the duration & severity of HTN, BMI, age, sex and TOD's like hypertensive retinopathy, ACS was assessed by univariate analysis. The prevalence of MA in this study was found to be 63 %. In that 42% were male & 21% were female. In this study a significant association between MA and the duration of hypertension (p = 0.036) & (OR =0.438). Longer the duration of hypertension, more possibility of microalbumin in urine. Also there was a significant association between severity of hypertension and MA (p=0.045) and (OR=0.093). MA was positive in 50 (79.4%) patients out of 63, whose blood pressure was >160/100 mm Hg. In this study a significant association between MA and the grades of hypertensive retinopathy (p =0.011) and acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.041) (OR =2.805). Gender and BMI did not pose high risk for MA in this study.The prevalence of MA in essential hypertension is high in this part of the community and MA will increase the risk of developing target organ damage.Early screening of patients with essential hypertension for MA and aggressive management of positive cases might reduce the burden of chronic kidney diseases and cardiovascular diseases in the community.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome, Essential hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Target organ damage

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Authors: Wimalin S. Laosiritaworn, Pongsak Holimchayachotikul

Abstract:

this article proposed a methodology for computer numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called 'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have saved in the case study company.

Keywords: Computer Numerical Control, Data Mining, HardDisk Drive.

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Authors: S. B. Alavi, G. Cerri, L. Chennaoui, A. Giovannelli, S. Mazzoni

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Power Regeneration in Refrigeration Plant concept has been analyzed and has been shown to be capable of saving about 25% power in Cryogenic Plants with the Power Regeneration System (PRS) running under nominal conditions. The innovative component Compressor Expander Group (CEG) based on turbomachinery has been designed and built modifying CETT compressor and expander, both selected for optimum plant performance. Experiments have shown the good response of the turbomachines to run with R404a as working fluid. Power saving up to 12% under PRS derated conditions (50% loading) has been demonstrated. Such experiments allowed predicting a power saving up to 25% under CEG full load.

Keywords: Compressor, Expander, Power Saving, Refrigeration Plant, Turbine, Turbomachinery Selection, Vapor Pressure Booster.

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Authors: A. A. K. Abou-Arab, M. A. Abou Donia, Sherif R. Mohamed, A. K. Enab

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Lead being a toxic heavy metal that mankind is exposed to the highest levels of this metal. There are different sources of environmental pollution with lead as lead alkyl additives in petrol and manufacturing processes. The contaminated atmosphere in urban and industrial areas by lead in Egypt may lead to the contamination of foods beside the other different sources. The present investigation studied the risk assessment of lead in some Egyptian edible vegetables and fruits collected from different environments in Greater Cairo Governorate, i.e. industrial, heavy traffic and rural areas. A total of 325 leafy and fruity vegetables and fruits samples belonging to 11, 6 and 4 different species, respectively were randomly collected from markets of the three main models. Data indicated the variation of lead levels in different three areas. The highest levels of lead were detected in the samples collected from industrial and traffic areas. However, the lowest levels were found in the rural areas. It could be concluded that determination of lead levels in foods from different localities and environments at regularly is very important.

Keywords: Heavy metals, Lead, Vegetables, Fruits, Environments.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

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New graph similarity methods have been proposed in this work with the aim to refining the chemical information extracted from molecules matching. For this purpose, data fusion of the isomorphic and nonisomorphic subgraphs into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity, was carried out by several approaches. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting several pharmacological parameters: binding of steroids to the globulin-corticosteroid receptor, the activity of benzodiazepine receptor compounds, and the blood brain barrier permeability. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drug activity prediction.

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Authors: Williams S. Ebhota, Virginia Chika Ebhota, Samuel A. Ilupeju

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Agriculture employs about three-quarter of Nigeria's workforce and yet food sufficiency is a challenge in the country. This is largely due to poor and outdated pre-harvest and post-harvest farming practices. The land fallow system is still been practised as fertiliser production in the country is grossly inadequate and expensive. The few available post-harvest processing facilities are faced with ageing and are inefficient. Also, use of modern processing equipment is limited by farmers' lack of fund, adequate capacity to operate and maintain modern farming equipment. This paper, therefore, examines key barriers to agricultural products processing equipment in the country. These barriers include over-dependence on foreign technologies and expertise; poor and inadequate manufacturing infrastructure; and lack of political will by political leaders; lack of funds; and lack of adequate technical skills. This paper, however, sees the increase in the domestic manufacturing of pre-harvest and post-harvest machinery and equipment through reverse engineering approach as a key to food production sufficiency in Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural machinery, domestic manufacturing, forward engineering, production reverse engineering, technology.

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Authors: Dawit Mengistu, Lars Lundberg, Paul Davidsson

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A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.

Keywords: Grid computing, Performance modeling, Performance prediction, Multi-agent simulation.

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Authors: Ghassan El-Baalbaki, Claude Bélanger, Michel Perreault, Steffany J. Fredman, Donald H. Baucom

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This study had two goals. First, it investigated marital interaction variables as predictors of treatment outcome in panic disorder with agoraphobia (PDA) in sixty-five couples with one spouse suffering from PDA. Second, it analyzed the impact of PDA improvement, following therapy, on marital interaction patterns of both spouses. The partners were observed during a problem-solving task, before and after treatment. Negative behaviors at the outset of therapy, both in the PDA and the NPDA partners, predicted less improvement at post-test. It also appears that improvement in some PDA symptoms following therapy is linked to increase in the dominant behavior of the NPDA spouse and to an improvement in terms of his intrusiveness.

Keywords: Communication and problem-solving skills, Emotional overinvolvement, Marital relationship, Panic disorder withagoraphobia, Treatment outcome.

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Authors: Reza Bazargan Lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for preprocessing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based preprocessing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: Wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN.

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Authors: Raluca Iulia Iulian

Abstract:

The question of interethnic and interreligious conflicts in ex-Yugoslavia receives much attention within the framework of the international context created after 1991 because of the impact of these conflicts on the security and the stability of the region of Balkans and of Europe. This paper focuses on the rationales leading to the declaration of independence by Kosovo according to ethnic and religious criteria and analyzes why these same rationales were not applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The approach undertaken aims at comparatively examining the cases of Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, it aims at understanding the political decision making of the international community in the case of Kosovo. Specifically, was this a good political decision for the security and the stability of the region of Balkans, of Europe, or even for global security and stability? This research starts with an overview on the European security framework post 1991, paying particular attention to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It then presents the theoretical and methodological framework and compares the representative cases. Using the constructivism issue and the comparative methodology, it arrives at the results of the study. An important issue of the paper is the thesis that this event modifies the principles of international law and creates dangerous precedents for regional stability in the Balkans.

Keywords: Interethnic and interreligious conflict, security andstability, superpower.

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Authors: Kai-Ti Hsu, Hui-Ling Huang, Chun-Wei Tung, Yi-Hsiung Chen, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Bioinformatics methods for predicting the T cell coreceptor usage from the array of membrane protein of HIV-1 are investigated. In this study, we aim to propose an effective prediction method for dealing with the three-class classification problem of CXCR4 (X4), CCR5 (R5) and CCR5/CXCR4 (R5X4). We made efforts in investigating the coreceptor prediction problem as follows: 1) proposing a feature set of informative physicochemical properties which is cooperated with SVM to achieve high prediction test accuracy of 81.48%, compared with the existing method with accuracy of 70.00%; 2) establishing a large up-to-date data set by increasing the size from 159 to 1225 sequences to verify the proposed prediction method where the mean test accuracy is 88.59%, and 3) analyzing the set of 14 informative physicochemical properties to further understand the characteristics of HIV-1coreceptors.

Keywords: Coreceptor, genetic algorithm, HIV-1, SVM, physicochemical properties, prediction.

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Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

Abstract:

Information regarding early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Proven was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male was possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance.

Keywords: Early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative.

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Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

Abstract:

The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: Direct voice input, risk, security, technology and trust.

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