Search results for: nonlinear analytical model
2472 Heat and Mass Transfer in a Saturated Porous Medium Confined in Cylindrical Annular Geometry
Authors: A. Ja, J. Belabid, A. Cheddadi
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This paper reports the numerical simulation of doublediffusive natural convection flows within a horizontal annular filled with a saturated porous medium. The analysis concerns the influence of the different parameters governing the problem, namely, the Rayleigh number Ra, the Lewis number Le and the buoyancy ratio N, on the heat and mass transfer and on the flow structure, in the case of a fixed radius ratio R = 2. The numerical model used for the discretization of the dimensionless equations governing the problem is based on the finite difference method, using the ADI scheme. The study is focused on steady-state solutions in the cooperation situation.
Keywords: Natural convection, double-diffusion, porous medium, annular geometry, finite differences.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22142471 Coverage Availability for the IEEE 802.16 System over the SUI Channels with Rayleigh Fading
Authors: Shiann-Shiun Jeng, Chen-Wan Tsung, Hong-You Liou, Chun-Chieh Chang, Jia-Ming Chen
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The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16 systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications. In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE 802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore, simulation results show the coverage range with and without Rayleigh fading.Keywords: OFDM, coverage, SUI channel, IEEE 802.16
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14772470 Gas Sweetening Process Simulation: Investigation on Recovering Waste Hydraulic Energy
Authors: Meisam Moghadasi, Hassan Ali Ozgoli, Foad Farhani
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In this research, firstly, a commercial gas sweetening unit with methyl-di-ethanol-amine (MDEA) solution is simulated and comprised in an integrated model in accordance with Aspen HYSYS software. For evaluation purposes, in the second step, the results of the simulation are compared with operating data gathered from South Pars Gas Complex (SPGC). According to the simulation results, the considerable energy potential contributed to the pressure difference between absorber and regenerator columns causes this energy driving force to be applied in power recovery turbine (PRT). In the last step, the amount of waste hydraulic energy is calculated, and its recovery methods are investigated.
Keywords: Gas sweetening unit, simulation, MDEA, power recovery turbine, waste-to-energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10772469 Application of Motivational Factors for Uploading Films to Websites Ulozto.net and Piratebay.org
Authors: Pavel Janak
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This paper studies, maps and explains the interactions between downloaders and uploaders pertaining to the Internet film piracy. This study also covers several motivational factors that influence users to upload or download movies, and thus to engage in film piracy over the Internet. The essay also proposes a model that describes user behavior including their relationships and influences. Moreover, proposed theoretical interactions and motivational factors are applied to the real world scenario, using examples of a data storage webpage server Ulozto.net and webpage Piratebay.org gathering information about downloadable BitTorrents. Moreover, the theory is further supported by description of behavior of real Internet uploaders.
Keywords: Download, film piracy, internet, motivational factors for uploading.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21822468 Motion Planning and Posture Control of the General 3-Trailer System
Authors: K. Raghuwaiya, B. Sharma, J. Vanualailai
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This paper presents a set of artificial potential field functions that improves upon, in general, the motion planning and posture control, with theoretically guaranteed point and posture stabilities, convergence and collision avoidance properties of the general3-trailer system in a priori known environment. We basically design and inject two new concepts; ghost walls and the distance optimization technique (DOT) to strengthen point and posture stabilities, in the sense of Lyapunov, of our dynamical model. This new combination of techniques emerges as a convenient mechanism for obtaining feasible orientations at the target positions with an overall reduction in the complexity of the navigation laws. Simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controls laws.
Keywords: Artificial potential fields, 3-trailer systems, motion planning, posture.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21512467 NSBS: Design of a Network Storage Backup System
Authors: Xinyan Zhang, Zhipeng Tan, Shan Fan
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The first layer of defense against data loss is the backup data. This paper implements an agent-based network backup system used the backup, server-storage and server-backup agent these tripartite construction, and the snapshot and hierarchical index are used in the NSBS. It realizes the control command and data flow separation, balances the system load, thereby improving efficiency of the system backup and recovery. The test results show the agent-based network backup system can effectively improve the task-based concurrency, reasonably allocate network bandwidth, the system backup performance loss costs smaller and improves data recovery efficiency by 20%.
Keywords: Agent, network backup system, three architecture model, NSBS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22322466 Determining the Direction of Causality between Creating Innovation and Technology Market
Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva
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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.
Keywords: Export, import, innovation, patents.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11962465 A Robust Controller for Output Variance Reduction and Minimum Variance with Application on a Permanent Field DC-Motor
Authors: Mahmood M. Al-Imam, M. Mustafa
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In this paper, we present an experimental testing for a new algorithm that determines an optimal controller-s coefficients for output variance reduction related to Linear Time Invariant (LTI) Systems. The algorithm features simplicity in calculation, generalization to minimal and non-minimal phase systems, and could be configured to achieve reference tracking as well as variance reduction after compromising with the output variance. An experiment of DCmotor velocity control demonstrates the application of this new algorithm in designing the controller. The results show that the controller achieves minimum variance and reference tracking for a preset velocity reference relying on an identified model of the motor.Keywords: Output variance, minimum variance, overparameterization, DC-Motor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13592464 Reliability Analysis in Electrical Distribution System Considering Preventive Maintenance Applications on Circuit Breakers
Authors: Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Saeed Afshar
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This paper presents the results of a preventive maintenance application-based study and modeling of failure rates in breakers of electrical distribution systems. This is a critical issue in the reliability assessment of a system. In the analysis conducted in this paper, the impacts of failure rate variations caused by a preventive maintenance are examined. This is considered as a part of a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) application program. A number of load point reliability indices is derived using the mathematical model of the failure rate, which is established using the observed data in a distribution system.
Keywords: Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM), failure rate, preventive maintenance (PM), Distribution System Reliability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24952463 Balanced Scorecard in SMEs – A Proposal for Small Gas Stations in Portugal
Authors: Ana Paula Monte, Christiane Fontenete
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As current business environment is demanding a constant adaptation of companies, the planning and strategic management should be an ongoing and natural process in all kind of organizations. The use of management and monitoring strategic performance tools such as the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) have been popular; even to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. This paper aims to investigate whether the BSC is being used in monitoring the performance of small businesses, particularly in small fuel retailers companies, which are competing in co-branding; and if not, it aims to identify its strategic orientation in order to recommend a possible strategy map for those managers that are willing to adopt this model as an alternative to traditional ones for organizational performance evaluation, which often focus only on evaluation of the organizational financial performance.Keywords: Balanced Scorecard, Performance Management and Evaluation, SMEs, Strategy Maps
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 41812462 Practical Problems as Tools for the Development of Secondary School Students’ Motivation to Learn Mathematics
Authors: M. Rodionov, Z. Dedovets
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This article discusses plausible reasoning use for solution to practical problems. Such reasoning is the major driver of motivation and implementation of mathematical, scientific and educational research activity. A general, practical problem solving algorithm is presented which includes an analysis of specific problem content to build, solve and interpret the underlying mathematical model. The author explores the role of practical problems such as the stimulation of students' interest, the development of their world outlook and their orientation in the modern world at the different stages of learning mathematics in secondary school. Particular attention is paid to the characteristics of those problems which were systematized and presented in the conclusions.
Keywords: Mathematics, motivation, secondary school, student, practical problem.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10652461 Content-based Indoor/Outdoor Video Classification System for a Mobile Platform
Authors: Mitko Veta, Tomislav Kartalov, Zoran Ivanovski
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Organization of video databases is becoming difficult task as the amount of video content increases. Video classification based on the content of videos can significantly increase the speed of tasks such as browsing and searching for a particular video in a database. In this paper, a content-based videos classification system for the classes indoor and outdoor is presented. The system is intended to be used on a mobile platform with modest resources. The algorithm makes use of the temporal redundancy in videos, which allows using an uncomplicated classification model while still achieving reasonable accuracy. The training and evaluation was done on a video database of 443 videos downloaded from a video sharing service. A total accuracy of 87.36% was achieved.Keywords: Indoor/outdoor, video classification, imageclassification
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15232460 Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Controlling Spacecraft Power System
Authors: Hanaa T. El-Madany, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. A. El-Rahman, Hassen T. Dorrah
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Advancements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) made during this decade have forever changed the way we look at automating spacecraft subsystems including the electrical power system. AI have been used to solve complicated practical problems in various areas and are becoming more and more popular nowadays. In this paper, a mathematical modeling and MATLAB–SIMULINK model for the different components of the spacecraft power system is presented. Also, a control system, which includes either the Neural Network Controller (NNC) or the Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) is developed for achieving the coordination between the components of spacecraft power system as well as control the energy flows. The performance of the spacecraft power system is evaluated by comparing two control systems using the NNC and the FLC.Keywords: Spacecraft, Neural network, Fuzzy logic control, Photovoltaic array.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19492459 Availability Analysis of a Power Plant by Computer Simulation
Authors: Mehmet Savsar
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Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.Keywords: Power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14992458 Effects of Various Substrate Openings for Electronic Cooling under Forced and Natural Convection
Authors: Shen-Kuei Du, Jen-Chieh Chang, Chia-Hong Kao, Tzu-Chen Hung, Chii-Ray Lin
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This study experimentally investigates the heat transfer effects of forced convection and natural convection under different substrate openings design. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was established and implemented to verify and explain the experimental results and heat transfer behavior. It is found that different opening position will destroy the growth of the boundary layer on substrates to alter the cooling ability for both forced under low Reynolds number and natural convection. Nevertheless, having too many opening may reduce heat conduction and affect the overall heat transfer performance. This study provides future researchers with a guideline on designing and electronic package manufacturing.
Keywords: electronic cooling, experiment, opening concept, CFD.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16862457 The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Current Account Deficit: The Turkish Case
Authors: E. Selçuk, Z. Karaçor, P. Yardımcı
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Trade liberalization and its effects on the economies of developing countries have been investigated by many different studies, and some of them have focused on its impact on the current account balance. Turkey, as being one of the countries, which has liberalized its foreign trade in the 1980s, also needs to be studied in terms of the impact of liberalization on current account deficits. Therefore, the aim of this study is to find out whether trade liberalization has affected Turkey’s trade and current account balances. In order to determine this, yearly data of Turkey from 1980 to 2013 is used. As liberalization dummy, the year 1989, which was set for Turkey, is selected. Structural break test and model estimation results show that trade liberalization has a negative impact on trade balance but do not have a significant impact on the current account balance.
Keywords: Budget deficit, current account, liberalization, Turkish economy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11492456 Self-Tuning Robot Control Based on Subspace Identification
Authors: Mathias Marquardt, Peter Dünow, Sandra Baßler
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The paper describes the use of subspace based identification methods for auto tuning of a state space control system. The plant is an unstable but self balancing transport robot. Because of the unstable character of the process it has to be identified from closed loop input-output data. Based on the identified model a state space controller combined with an observer is calculated. The subspace identification algorithm and the controller design procedure is combined to a auto tuning method. The capability of the approach was verified in a simulation experiments under different process conditions.Keywords: Auto tuning, balanced robot, closed loop identification, subspace identification.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11322455 Effective Self-Preservation of Methane Hydrate Particles in Crude Oils
Authors: A. S. Stoporev, A. Yu. Manakov
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In this work we investigated the behavior of methane hydrates dispersed in crude oils from different fields at temperatures below 0°C. In case of crude oil emulsion the size of water droplets is in the range of 50e100"m. The size of hydrate particles formed from droplets is the same. The self-preservation is not expected in this field. However, the self-preservation of hydrates with the size of particles 24±18"m (electron microscopy data) in suspensions is observed. Similar results were obtained for four different kinds of crude oil and model system such as asphaltenes, resins and wax in ndecane. This result can allow developing effective methods to prevent the formation and elimination of gas-hydrate plugs in pipelines under low temperature conditions (e. g. in Eastern Siberia). There is a prospective to use experiment results for working out the technology of associated petroleum gas recovery.Keywords: Gas hydrate, Gas liberation, Self-preservation, Water-in-oil emulsion.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21282454 Dynamic Adaptability Using Reflexivity for Mobile Agent Protection
Authors: Salima Hacini, Haoua Cheribi, Zizette Boufaïda
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The paradigm of mobile agent provides a promising technology for the development of distributed and open applications. However, one of the main obstacles to widespread adoption of the mobile agent paradigm seems to be security. This paper treats the security of the mobile agent against malicious host attacks. It describes generic mobile agent protection architecture. The proposed approach is based on the dynamic adaptability and adopts the reflexivity as a model of conception and implantation. In order to protect it against behaviour analysis attempts, the suggested approach supplies the mobile agent with a flexibility faculty allowing it to present an unexpected behaviour. Furthermore, some classical protective mechanisms are used to reinforce the level of security.
Keywords: Dynamic adaptability, malicious host, mobile agent security, reflexivity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11432453 Performance Evaluation Standards and Innovation: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: F. Apaydın
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In this empirical research, how marketing managers evaluate their firms- performances and decide to make innovation is examined. They use some standards which are past performance of the firm, target performance of the firm, competitor performance, and average performance of the industry to compare and evaluate the firms- performances. It is hypothesized that marketing managers and owners of the firm compare the firms- current performance with these four standards at the same time to decide when to make innovation relating to any aspects of the firm, either management style or products. Relationship between the comparison of the firm-s performance with these standards and innovation are searched in the same regression model. The results of the regression analysis are discussed and some recommendations are made for future studies and applicants.
Keywords: Innovation, performance evaluation standards
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15142452 Genetic Algorithm Based Optimal Control for a 6-DOF Non Redundant Stewart Manipulator
Authors: A. Omran, G. El-Bayiumi, M. Bayoumi, A. Kassem
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Applicability of tuning the controller gains for Stewart manipulator using genetic algorithm as an efficient search technique is investigated. Kinematics and dynamics models were introduced in detail for simulation purpose. A PD task space control scheme was used. For demonstrating technique feasibility, a Stewart manipulator numerical-model was built. A genetic algorithm was then employed to search for optimal controller gains. The controller was tested onsite a generic circular mission. The simulation results show that the technique is highly convergent with superior performance operating for different payloads.
Keywords: Stewart kinematics, Stewart dynamics, task space control, genetic algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18942451 Minimum Fluidization Velocities of Binary-Solid Mixtures: Model Comparison
Authors: Mohammad Asif
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An accurate prediction of the minimum fluidization velocity is a crucial hydrodynamic aspect of the design of fluidized bed reactors. Common approaches for the prediction of the minimum fluidization velocities of binary-solid fluidized beds are first discussed here. The data of our own careful experimental investigation involving a binary-solid pair fluidized with water is presented. The effect of the relative composition of the two solid species comprising the fluidized bed on the bed void fraction at the incipient fluidization condition is reported and its influence on the minimum fluidization velocity is discussed. In this connection, the capability of packing models to predict the bed void fraction is also examined.Keywords: Bed void fraction, Binary solid mixture, Minimumfluidization velocity, Packing models
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26462450 Peaceful Coexistence of IEEE 802.11 and IEEE802.16 Standards in 5GHz Unlicensed Bands
Authors: Raoul Zamblé, Michel Babri, Souleymane Oumtanaga, Boubacar Barry, Claude Lishou
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Cognitive radio devices have been considered as a key technology for next-generation of wireless communication. These devices in the context of IEEE 802.11 standards and IEEE 802.16 standards, can opportunistically utilize the wireless spectrum to achieve better user performance and improve the overall spectrumutilization efficiency, mainly in the unlicensed 5 GHz bands. However, opportunistic use of wireless spectrum creates news problems such as peaceful coexistence with other wireless technologies, such as the radiolocation systems, as well as understanding the influence of interference that each of these networks can create. In this paper, we suggest a dynamic access model that considerably reduces this interference and allows efficiency and fairness use of the wireless spectrum.
Keywords: Dynamic access, exclusive access, spectrumopportunities, unlicensed band.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18922449 Business Process Orientation: Case of Croatia
Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan
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Because of the increasing business pressures, companies must be adaptable and flexible in order to withstand them. Inadequate business processes and low level of business process orientation, that in its core accentuates business processes as opposed to business functions and focuses on process performance and customer satisfaction, hider the ability to adapt to changing environment. It has been shown in previous studies that the companies which have reached higher business process maturity level consistently outperform those that have not reached them. The aim of this paper is to provide a basic understanding of business process orientation concept and business process maturity model. Besides that the paper presents the state of business process orientation in Croatia that has been captured with a study conducted in 2013. Based on the results some practical implications and guidelines for managers are given.
Keywords: Business process orientation, business process maturity, Croatia, maturity score.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16792448 Performance Analysis of ERA Using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network
Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Harjit Pal Singh, Vikas Khullar
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In Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), the main limitation is generally inimitable energy consumption during processing of the sensor nodes. Cluster head (CH) election is one of the main issues that can reduce the energy consumption. Therefore, discovering energy saving routing protocol is the focused area for research. In this paper, fuzzy-based energy aware routing protocol is presented, which enhances the stability and network lifetime of the network. Fuzzy logic ensures the well-organized selection of CH by taking four linguistic variables that are concentration, energy, centrality, and distance to base station (BS). The results show that the proposed protocol shows better results in requisites of stability and throughput of the network.
Keywords: ERA, fuzzy logic, network model, WSN.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8792447 Batch and Continuous Packed Column Studies Biosorption by Yeast Supported onto Granular Pozzolana
Authors: A. Djafer, S. Kouadri Moustefai, A. Idou, M. Douani
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The removal of chromium by living yeast biomass immobilized onto pozzolana was studied. The results obtained in batch experiments indicate that the immobilized yeast on to pozzolana is a excellent biosorbent of Cr(V) with a good removal rates of 85–90%. The initial concentration solution and agitation speed affected Cr(V) removal. The batch studies data were described using the Freundlich and Langmuir models, but the best fit was obtained with Langmuir model. The breakthrough curve from the continuous flow studies shows that immobilized yeast in the fixed-bed column is capable of decreasing Cr(VI) concentration from 15mg/l to a adequate level.
Keywords: Biosorption, yeast, chromium, kinetic biosorption, fixed biomass
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30662446 A United Nations Safety Compliant Urban Vehicle Design
Authors: Marcelo R. G. Duarte, Marcilio Alves
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Pedestrians are the fourth group among road traffic users that most suffer accidents. Their death rate is even higher than the motorcyclists group. This gives motivation for the development of an urban vehicle capable of complying with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe pedestrian regulations. The conceptual vehicle is capable of transporting two passengers and small parcels for 100 km at a maximum speed of 90 km/h. This paper presents the design of this vehicle using the finite element method specially in connection with frontal crash test and car to pedestrian collision. The simulation is based in a human body FE.Keywords: Electric urban vehicle, finite element method, global human body model, pedestrian safety, road safety.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7152445 A Recommender Agent to Support Virtual Learning Activities
Authors: P. Valdiviezo, G. Riofrio, R. Reategui
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This article describes the implementation of an intelligent agent that provides recommendations for educational resources in a virtual learning environment (VLE). It aims to support pending (undeveloped) student learning activities. It begins by analyzing the proposed VLE data model entities in the recommender process. The pending student activities are then identified, which constitutes the input information for the agent. By using the attribute-based recommender technique, the information can be processed and resource recommendations can be obtained. These serve as support for pending activity development in the course. To integrate this technique, we used an ontology. This served as support for the semantic annotation of attributes and recommended files recovery.
Keywords: Learning activities, educational resource, recommender agent, recommendation technique, ontology.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16622444 Underwriting Risks as Determinants of Insurance Cycles: Case of Croatia
Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.
Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 38392443 A Development of a Simulation Tool for Production Planning with Capacity-Booking at Specialty Store Retailer of Private Label Apparel Firms
Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto
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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.
Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1330