Search results for: scientific literacy development.

Authors: Pongsiri Kingkan

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the role and activities of the participants and the impact of activities created in the local area in order to sustainably develop the local areas. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative approaches presented in descriptive style; the data was collected via survey, observation and in-depth interviews with samples. The results illustrated five sorts of roles of participants of the Cicada Walking-street and four types of creative activities; recreation based, art based, cultural based, and live events. Integration of local characteristics, arts and cultures were presented creatively and interestingly. Participants are various. The roles of the participants found in the Cicada Market are group of the property and area management, entrepreneurs, leisure (entertaining persons), local people, and tourists. The good impacts on local communities are those in terms of economy, environmental friendly and local arts and cultures promoting. On the other hand, the traffic congestion, waste and the increasing of energy consumption are negative impacts from area development.

Keywords: Creative Tourism Activity, Destination Development, Sustainable Development, Walking Street.

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Authors: Nese Dikmen

Abstract:

Post-disaster reconstruction projects offer opportunities to facilitate physical, social and economic development and to reduce future hazard vulnerability long after the disasters. Sustainability of post-disaster reconstruction project conducted in the villages of Dinar following the 1995 earthquake was investigated in this paper. Officials of the Government who were involved in the project were interviewed. Besides, two field surveys were done in 12 villages of Dinar in winter months of 2008. Beneficiaries were interviewed and physical, socio-cultural and economic impacts of the reconstruction were examined. The research revealed that the postdisaster reconstruction project has negative aspects from the point view of sustainability. The physical, socio-cultural and economic factors were not considered during decision making process of the project.

Keywords: Dinar, Post-disaster reconstruction, Sustainable development, Turkey.

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Authors: B. Mikulskienė

Abstract:

Public administration institutions in cooperation with politicians are not the sole policy decision makers in full meaning any longer. Meanwhile, a special role, namely steering the decision making process, could be delegated to them. Despite the wide scientific discussion on different aspects what has direct impact on policy creation, there is a lack of holistic practical managerial advice, which could integrate infrastructure of policy decision making with intellectual capital and with interconnection of partnership. The proposed harmonized decision making model of process, people and partnership entitled by acronym HM-3P is analyzed as a framework for implementation of public administration steering role seeking the coherent social involvement in policy decision making.

Keywords: participatory decision making, partnership, stakeholders.

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Authors: Mohd Fahmi Mohamad Amran, Riza Sulaiman, Saliyah Kahar, Suziyanti Marjudi, Muhammad FairuzAbd Rauf

Abstract:

The extensive number of engineering drawing will be referred for planning process and the changes will produce a good engineering design to meet the demand in producing a new model. The advantage in reuse of engineering designs is to allow continuous product development to further improve the quality of product development, thus reduce the development costs. However, to retrieve the existing engineering drawing, it is time consuming, a complex process and are expose to errors. Engineering drawing file searching system will be proposed to solve this problem. It is essential for engineer and designer to have some sort of medium to enable them to search for drawing in the most effective way. This paper lays out the proposed research project under the area of information extraction in engineering drawing.

Keywords: Computer aided design, information extraction, engineering drawing, reuse design.

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Authors: Saipunidzam Mahamad, Mohammad Noor Ibrahim, Rozana Kasbon, Chap Samol

Abstract:

Animated graph gives some good impressions in presenting information. However, not many people are able to produce it because the process of generating an animated graph requires some technical skills. This work presents Content Management System with Animated Graph (CMS-AG). It is a webbased system enabling users to produce an effective and interactive graphical report in a short time period. It allows for three levels of user authentication, provides update profile, account management, template management, graph management, and track changes. The system development applies incremental development approach, object-oriented concepts and Web programming technologies. The design architecture promotes new technology of reporting. It also helps user cut off unnecessary expenses, save time and learn new things on different levels of users. In this paper, the developed system is described.

Keywords: Animated Graph, Content Management System.

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Authors: Philomena Ibuh Adzongo, Margaret U. Oluwole, Justina Nguveren Jor.

Abstract:

This paper investigated the need for the development of entrepreneurial skills for Benue State University students. The population consisted of all 1,500 final year students in Benue State University. A sample of 100 students was selected using simple random sampling. A 12-item self-constructed and content validated questionnaire by research experts titled, the Need for the Development of Entrepreneurial Skills in Benue State University Students (NDECBSUS) was used to collect the data. The questionnaire items were rated using a 4-point modified rating scale of Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree and Strongly Disagree, assigned the following scores of 4,3,2 and 1, respectively. The questionnaire was administered by the researcher with the help of two research assistants through the primary source. Simple percentages and chi-square were used to answer the research questions and test the hypotheses, respectively. The findings revealed that in business management, business management skills, personal skills, and technical skills need to be developed in students for them to become effective and efficient entrepreneurs and concluded that the acquisition of these skills will reduce the challenge of unemployment. The study recommended that funds should be made available by all education stakeholders for such programmes to remain functional.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial skill, entrepreneurship, need for development, university students.

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Authors: K. Schmidt, Z. Miodrag, C. Geiger

Abstract:

Performance Measurement is still a difficult task for forwarding companies. This is caused on the one hand by missing resources and on the other hand by missing tools. The research project “Management Information System for Logistics Service Providers" aims for closing the gap between needed and disposable solutions. Core of the project is the development

Keywords: Forwarder, Logistics, Management Information, Performance Measurement.

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Authors: Pierre Kancir, Jean-Philippe Diguet, Marc Sevaux

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One of the main difficulties in developing multi-robot systems (MRS) is related to the simulation and testing tools available. Indeed, if the differences between simulations and real robots are too significant, the transition from the simulation to the robot won’t be possible without another long development phase and won’t permit to validate the simulation. Moreover, the testing of different algorithmic solutions or modifications of robots requires a strong knowledge of current tools and a significant development time. Therefore, the availability of tools for MRS, mainly with flying drones, is crucial to enable the industrial emergence of these systems. This research aims to present the most commonly used tools for MRS simulations and their main shortcomings and presents complementary tools to improve the productivity of designers in the development of multi-vehicle solutions focused on a fast learning curve and rapid transition from simulations to real usage. The proposed contributions are based on existing open source tools as Gazebo simulator combined with ROS (Robot Operating System) and the open-source multi-platform autopilot ArduPilot to bring them to a broad audience.

Keywords: ROS, ArduPilot, MRS, simulation, drones, Gazebo.

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Authors: Alessandro Bevilacqua, Alessandro Gherardi, Filippo Piccinini

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Image mosaicing is a technique that permits to enlarge the field of view of a camera. For instance, it is employed to achieve panoramas with common cameras or even in scientific applications, to achieve the image of a whole culture in microscopical imaging. Usually, a mosaic of cell cultures is achieved through using automated microscopes. However, this is often performed in batch, through CPU intensive minimization algorithms. In addition, live stem cells are studied in phase contrast, showing a low contrast that cannot be improved further. We present a method to study the flat field from live stem cells images even in case of 100% confluence, this permitting to build accurate mosaics on-line using high performance algorithms.

Keywords: Microscopy, image mosaicing, stem cells.

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Authors: M. F. Chow, M. F. Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Green roof system is considered a relatively new concept in Malaysia even though it has been implemented widely in the developed countries. Generally, green roofs provide many benefits such as enhancing aesthetical quality of the built environment, reduce urban heat island effect, reduce energy consumption, improve stormwater attenuation, and reduce noise pollution. A better understanding on the implementation of green roof system in Malaysia is crucial, as Malaysia’s climate is different if compared with the climate in temperate countries where most of the green roof studies have been conducted. This study has concentrated on the technical aspect of green roof system which focuses on i) types of plants and method of planting; ii) engineering design for green roof system; iii) its hydrological performance on reducing stormwater runoff; and iv) benefits of green roofs with respect to energy. Literature review has been conducted to identify the development and obstacles associated with green roofs systems in Malaysia. The study had identified the challenges and potentials of green roofs development in Malaysia. This study also provided the recommendations on standard design and strategies on the implementation of green roofs in Malaysia in the near future.

Keywords: Engineering design, green roof, sustainable development, tropical countries.

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Authors: Areerut J.

Abstract:

Experimental Film Class Project is supported by the Institute for Research and Development at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This project is purported to provide academic and professional services to improve the quality standards of the community and locals in accordance with the mission of the university, which is to improve and expand knowledge for the community and to develop and transfer such knowledge and professions to the next generation. Eventually, it leads to sustainable development because the development of human resources is deemed as the key for sustainable development. Moreover, the Experimental Film Class is an integral part of the teaching of film production at Suan Sunandha International School of Art (SISA). By means of giving opportunities to students for participation in projects by sharing experience, skill and knowledge and participation in field activities, it helps students in the film production major to enhance their abilities and potentials as preparation for their readiness in the marketplace. Additionally, in this class, we provide basic film knowledge, screenwriting techniques, editing and subtitles including uploading videos on social media such as YouTube and Facebook for the participant students.

Keywords: Experimental Film Class, Watbangkapom School, Participant students, Basic of film production, Film Workshop.

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Authors: Diego Abbo

Abstract:

On February 15, 2012 off the Indian coast of Kerala, in position 091702N-0760180E by the oil tanker Enrica Lexie, flying the Italian flag, bursts of 5.56 x45 caliber shots were fired from assault rifles AR/70 Italian-made Beretta towards the Indian fisher boat St. Anthony. The shots that hit the St. Anthony fishing boat were six, of which two killed the Indian fishermen Ajesh Pink and Valentine Jelestine. From the analysis concerning the kinematic engagement of the two ships and from the autopsy and ballistic results of the Indian judicial authorities it is possible to reconstruct the trajectories of the six aforementioned shots. This essay reconstructs the trajectories of the six shots that cannot be of direct shooting but have undergone a rebound on the water. The investigation carried out scientifically demonstrates the rebound of the blows on the water, the gyrostatic deviation due to the rebound and the tumbling effect always due to the rebound as regards intermediate ballistics. In consideration of the four shots that directly impacted the fishing vessel, the current examination proves, with scientific value, that the trajectories could not be downwards but upwards. Also, the trajectory of two shots that hit to death the two fishermen could not be downwards but only upwards. In fact, this paper demonstrates, with scientific value: The loss of speed of the projectiles due to the rebound on the water; The tumbling effect in the ballistic medium within the two victims; The permanent cavities subject to the injury ballistics and the related ballistic trauma that prevented homeostasis causing bleeding in one case; The thermo-hardening deformation of the bullet found in Valentine Jelestine's skull; The upward and non-downward trajectories. The paper constitutes a tool in forensic ballistics in that it manages to reconstruct, from the final spot of the projectiles fired, all phases of ballistics like the internal one of the weapons that fired, the intermediate one, the terminal one and the penetrative structural one. In general terms the ballistics reconstruction is based on measurable parameters whose entity is contained with certainty within a lower and upper limit. Therefore, quantities that refer to angles, speed, impact energy and firing position of the shooter can be identified within the aforementioned limits. Finally, the investigation into the internal bullet track, obtained from any autopsy examination, offers a significant “lesson learned” but overall a starting point to contain or mitigate bleeding as a rescue from future gunshot wounds.

Keywords: Impact physics, intermediate ballistics, terminal ballistics, tumbling effect.

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili

Abstract:

The paper analyses the role of small farms in socio-economic development of agriculture in Georgia and evaluates modern concepts regarding the development of the farms of this size. The scale of farms in Georgia is studied and the major problems are revealed. Opportunities and directions of diversification are discussed from the point of increasing the share of Georgian grapes and wine both on domestic and international markets. It’s shown that the size of vineyard areas is directly reflected on the grape and wine production potential. Accordingly, vineyard area and grape production dynamics is discussed. Comparative analysis of small farms in Georgia and Italy is made and the major differences are identified. Diversification is evaluated based on cost-benefit analysis on the one hand and on the other hand, from the point of promoting economic activities, protecting nature and rural area development. The paper provides proofs for the outcomes of diversification. The key hindering factors for the development of small farms are identified and corresponding conclusions are made, based on which recommendations for diversification of the farms of this size are developed.

Keywords: Farm diversification, scale of farms, small farms, viticulture-winemaking.

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Authors: Marcel Rojahn, Edzard Weber, Norbert Gronau

Abstract:

Terminology is a critical instrument for each researcher. Different terminologies for the same research object may arise in different research communities. By this inconsistency, many synergistic effects get lost. Theories and models will be more understandable and reusable if a common terminology is applied. This paper examines the terminological (in)consistence for the research field of job-shop scheduling by a literature review. There is an enormous variety in the choice of terms and mathematical notation for the same concept. The comparability, reusability and combinability of scheduling methods is unnecessarily hampered by the arbitrary use of homonyms and synonyms. The acceptance in the community of used variables and notation forms is shown by means of a compliance quotient. This is proven by the evaluation of 240 scientific publications on planning methods.

Keywords: Job-shop scheduling, JSP, terminology, notation, standardization.

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Authors: Tatyana Boikova

Abstract:

The strong international competition as the factor of rising economic development efficiency should not turn into destructive force for models of social orientation. What result Europe received from the accelerated integration without a long transition period of the accepted countries. Correlative relationship between the research and development expenditure and labor productivity, inflation and the rate economy's growth of the USA and the euro zone, employment and gross value added between Old and New Europe is analyzed in this article. The article estimates the differences in economic growth of Old and New Europe. Correlation rate between cycles of the euro area and the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe very much differs, though some of these countries have high correlation as members of the Economic and Monetary Union. Besides, the majority of the countries of Central and the Eastern Europe does not correspond to criteria of an optimum currency area.

Keywords: endogenous economic growth, sustainability, competitiveness, economic development

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Authors: Aissam Belghiat, Mustapha Bourahla

Abstract:

Models are placed by modeling paradigm at the center of development process. These models are represented by languages, like UML the language standardized by the OMG which became necessary for development. Moreover the ontology engineering paradigm places ontologies at the center of development process; in this paradigm we find OWL the principal language for knowledge representation. Building ontologies from scratch is generally a difficult task. The bridging between UML and OWL appeared on several regards such as the classes and associations. In this paper, we have to profit from convergence between UML and OWL to propose an approach based on Meta-Modelling and Graph Grammars and registered in the MDA architecture for the automatic generation of OWL ontologies from UML class diagrams. The transformation is based on transformation rules; the level of abstraction in these rules is close to the application in order to have usable ontologies. We illustrate this approach by an example.

Keywords: ATOM3, MDA, Ontology, OWL, UML

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Authors: D. Karnawati, T.F. Fathani , B. Andayani, Suharto

Abstract:

This paper highlights the importance of integrating social and technical approach (which is so called a “hybrid socio-technical approach") as one innovative and strategic program to support the social development in geodisaster prone area in Indonesia. Such program mainly based on public education and community participation as a partnership program by the University, local government and may also with the private company and/ or local NGO. The indigenous, simple and low cost technology has also been introduced and developed as a part of the hybrid sociotechnical system, in order to ensure the life and environmental protection, with respect to the sustainable human and social development.

Keywords: Hybrid socio-technical system, indigenoustechnology, life and environmental protection, public education.

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Authors: K. N. Penna, E. J. Hoffman, T. R. Carter

Abstract:

This paper suggests that cultural landscape management plans in an Indigenous context are more effective if designed by taking into consideration context-related social and cultural aspects, adopting people-centred and cultural-based approaches for instance. In relation to working in Indigenous and mining contexts, we draw upon and contribute to international policies on human rights that promote the development of management plans that are co-designed through genuine engagement processes. We suggest that the production of management plans that are built upon culturally relevant frameworks leads to more inclusive economic development, a greater sense of trust, and shared managerial responsibilities. In this paper, three issues related to Indigenous engagement and cultural landscape management plans will be addressed: (1) the need for effective communication channels between proponents and Traditional Owners (Australian original Aboriginal peoples who inhabited specific regions), (2) the use of a culturally sensitive approach to engage local representatives in the decision-making processes, and (3) how design of new management plans can help in establishing shared management.

Keywords: Culture-Centred Approach, Holons’ Hierarchy, Inclusive Economic Development, Indigenous Engagement.

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Authors: Natália B. Pompermayer, Mariana B. Porto, Elizabeth F. Souza

Abstract:

Nanophotocatalysts such as titanium (TiO2), zinc (ZnO), and iron (Fe2O3) oxides can be used in organic pollutants oxidation, and in many other applications. But among the challenges for technological application (scale-up) of the nanotechnology scientific developments two aspects are still little explored: research on environmental risk of the nanomaterials preparation methods, and the study of nanomaterials properties and/or performance variability. The environmental analysis was performed for six different methods of ZnO nanoparticles synthesis, and showed that it is possible to identify the more environmentally compatible process even at laboratory scale research. The obtained ZnO nanoparticles were tested as photocatalysts, and increased the degradation rate of the Rhodamine B dye up to 30 times.

Keywords: Environmental impact analysis, inorganic nanoparticles, photocatalysts.

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Authors: Qiong Yao, Wei Wei

Abstract:

Gated community has gained its dominant in residential areas development that it has become the standard development pattern of the newly built residential areas in contemporary China. The form of gated community has its own advantages and rationality that meet the needs of quite a lot of residents, but it-s also believed by researchers that the form has great damage to the urban morphology and development, and has a negative impact on residents- living style. However, there is still a considerable controversy of the origins and outcomes. Though recognized as a global phenomenon, gated community developed in China is greatly to do with the specific local forces, respect to the unique historical, political and socio-cultural momentums. A historical review of the traditional settlements in China and the trends that how Gated community has gained its contemporary form, is indispensable for comprehending the local forces, and provide a new perspective to solve the controversy.

Keywords: Gated community, Traditional form of settlements, modeling process.

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Authors: Ngozi Nwogu, Edward Gobina

Abstract:

A dip-coating process has been used to form an asymmetric silica membrane with improved membrane performance and reproducibility. First, we deposited repeatedly silica on top of a commercial alumina membrane support to improve its structural make up. The membrane is further processed under clean room conditions to avoid dust impurity and subsequent drying in an oven for high thermal, chemical and physical stability. The resulting asymmetric membrane exhibits a gradual change in the membrane layer thickness. Compared to the support, the dual-layer process improves the gas flow rates. For the scientific applications for natural gas purification, CO2, CH4 and H2 gas flow rates were. In addition, the membrane selectively separated hydrogen.

Keywords: Gas permeation, Silica membrane, separation factor, membrane layer thickness.

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Authors: Lalit Garg, Sally McClean, Maria Barton

Abstract:

Healthcare issues continue to pose huge problems and incur massive costs. As a result there are many challenging problems still unresolved. In this paper, we will carry out an extensive scientific survey of different areas of management and planning in an attempt to identify where there has already been a substantial contribution from management science methods to healthcare problems and where there is a clear potential for more work to be done. The focus will be on the read-across to the healthcare domain from such approaches applied generally to management and planning and how the methods can be used to improvement patient care. We conclude that, since the healthcare domain significantly differs from traditional areas of management and planning, in some cases there is a need to modify the approaches so as to incorporate the complexities of healthcare, and fully exploit the potential for improvement.

Keywords: Management science, management and planning, transforming services, healthcare.

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Authors: M.Jalali Azizpour, S.Norouzi, , H.Mohammadi Majd, D.Sajedipour , R.Mohammadi Sadr, M.Derakhshan Mehr, S.A Shoabi, R.Mohammadi

Abstract:

In this paper, the techniques for estimating the residual stress in high velocity oxy fuel thermal spray coatings have been discussed and compared. The development trend and the last investigation have been studied. It is seemed that the there is not effective study on the effect of the peening action in HVOF analytically and numerically.

Keywords: HVOF, WC-Co, Residual stress, Compressive stress

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Authors: Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang, Luis Caezar Ian K. Panganiban, Charmyne B. Mamador, Oliver Dan G. De Luna, Michael D. Bausas, Joselito P. Cruz

Abstract:

PhilSHORE is a multi-site, multi-device and multicriteria decision support tool designed to support the development of tidal current energy in the Philippines. Its platform is based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) which allows for the collection, storage, processing, analyses and display of geospatial data. Combining GIS tools with open source web development applications, PhilSHORE becomes a webGIS-based marine spatial planning tool. To date, PhilSHORE displays output maps and graphs of power and energy density, site suitability and site-device analysis. It enables stakeholders and the public easy access to the results of tidal current energy resource assessments and site suitability analyses. Results of the initial development show that PhilSHORE is a promising decision support tool for ORE project developments.

Keywords: GIS, Site Suitability Analysis, Tidal Current Energy Resource Assessment, WebGIS.

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Authors: Sarah E. Stief, Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Markus Voeth

Abstract:

Despite all progress firms are facing the increasing need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies to transform their business activities in order to pursue business development. By using new digital technologies, firms can implement major business improvements in order to stay competitive and foster new growth potentials. The corresponding phenomenon of digital transformation has received some attention in previous literature in respect to industries such as media and publishing. Nevertheless, there is a lack of understanding of the concept and its organization within firms. With the help of twenty-three in-depth field interviews with German experts responsible for their company’s digital transformation, we examined what digital transformation encompasses, how it is organized and which opportunities and challenges arise within firms. Our results indicate that digital transformation is an inevitable task for all firms, as it bears the potential to comprehensively optimize and reshape established business activities and can thus be seen as a strategy of business development.

Keywords: Business development, digitalization, digital strategies, digital transformation.

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Authors: Manuela Nayantara Jeyaraj

Abstract:

Having moved into the 21^st century, it is way past being arguable that innovative technology needs to be incorporated into conventional classroom teaching. Though the Western world has found presumable success in achieving this, it is still a concept under battle in developing countries such as Sri Lanka. Reaching the acme of implementing interactive virtual learning within classrooms is a struggling idealistic fascination within the island. In order to overcome this problem, this study is set to reveal facts that limit the implementation of virtual, interactive learning within the school classrooms and provide hacks that could prove the augmented use of the Virtual World to enhance teaching and learning experiences. As each classroom moves along with the usage of technology to fulfill its functionalities, a few intense hacks provided will build the administrative onuses on a virtual system. These hacks may divulge barriers based on social conventions, financial boundaries, digital literacy, intellectual capacity of the staff, and highlight the impediments in introducing students to an interactive virtual learning environment and thereby provide the necessary actions or changes to be made to succeed and march along in creating an intellectual society built on virtual learning and lifestyle. This digital learning environment will be composed of multimedia presentations, trivia and pop quizzes conducted on a GUI, assessments conducted via a virtual system, records maintained on a database, etc. The ultimate objective of this study could enhance every child's basic learning environment; hence, diminishing the digital divide that exists in certain communities.

Keywords: Digital divide, digital learning, digitization, Sri Lanka, teaching methodologies.

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Authors: Ayse Yayla, Aynur Akar

Abstract:

Developments in scientific and technical area cause to use new methods and techniques in education, as is the case in all fields. Especially, the internet contributes a variety of new methods to design virtual and real time laboratory applications in education. In this study, a real time virtual laboratory is designed and implemented for analog and digital communications laboratory experiments by using Lab VIEW program for Marmara University Electronics-Communication Department. In this application, students can access the virtual laboratory web site and perform their experiments without any limitation of time and location so as the students can observe the signals by changing the parameters of the experiment and evaluate the results.

Keywords: Virtual laboratory, LabVIEW, ModulationTechniques

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Authors: Inês Vieira

Abstract:

The migration-environment nexus has gained increased interest from the social research field over the last years. While straightly connected to human security issues, this theme has pervaded through the media to the public sphere. Therefore, it is important to observe how did the discussions over environmentally induced migrations develop from the scientific basis to the media attention, passing through some political voices, and in which ways might these messages be interpreted within the broader public discourses. To achieve this purpose, the analysis of the press entries between 2004 and 2010 in three of the main Portuguese newspapers shall be presented, specially reflecting upon the events, protagonists, topics, geographical attributions and terms/expressions used to define those who migrate due to environmental degradation or disasters.

Keywords: Climate refugees, environmental refugees, environmentally induced migrations, Portuguese written press

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Authors: S.Pancucci

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to describe the process of setting up a learning community within an elementary school in Ontario, Canada. The description is provided through reflection and examination of field notes taken during the yearlong training and implementation process. Specifically the impact of teachers- capacity on the creation of a learning community was of interest. This paper is intended to inform and add to the debate around the tensions that exist in implementing a bottom-up professional development model like the learning community in a top-down organizational structure. My reflections of the process illustrate that implementation of the learning community professional development model may be difficult and yet transformative in the professional lives of the teachers, students, and administration involved in the change process. I conclude by suggesting the need for a new model of professional development that requires a transformative shift in power dynamics and a shift in the view of what constitutes effective professional learning.

Keywords: Learning community model, professionaldevelopment, teacher capacity, teacher leadership.

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky

Abstract:

Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 ^oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m² on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m². In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 ^oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 ^oC to 4.8 ^oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m² causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 ^oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 ^oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.

Keywords: GHG radiative forces, GHG air temperature, GHG thermodynamics, GHG historical, GHG experimental, GHG radiative force on ice, GHG radiative force on plants, GHG radiative force in air.

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