Search results for: winding probability.

Authors: Yeonsoo Jang, Dongweon Yoon, Ki Ho Kwon, Jaeyoon Lee, Wooju Lee

Abstract:

Phase error in communications systems degrades error performance. In this paper, we present a simple approximation for the average error probability of the binary phase shift keying (BPSK) in the presence of phase error having a uniform distribution on arbitrary intervals. For the simple approximation, we use symmetry and periodicity of a sinusoidal function. Approximate result for the average error probability is derived, and the performance is verified through comparison with simulation result.

Keywords: Average error probability, Phase shift keying, Phase error

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Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

Keywords: subgraph, expander, random graph, giant component, percolation.

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

High voltage generators are being subject to higher voltage rating and are being designed to operate in harsh conditions. Stator windings are the main component of generators in which Electrical, magnetically and thermal stresses remain major failures for insulation degradation accelerated aging. A large number of generators failed due to stator winding problems, mainly insulation deterioration. Insulation degradation assessment plays vital role in the asset life management. Mostly the stator failure is catastrophic causing significant damage to the plant. Other than generation loss, stator failure involves heavy repair or replacement cost. Electro thermal analysis is the main characteristic for improvement design of stator slot-s insulation. Dielectric parameters such as insulation thickness, spacing, material types, geometry of winding and slot are major design consideration. A very powerful method available to analyze electro thermal performance is Finite Element Method (FEM) which is used in this paper. The analysis of various stator coil and slot configurations are used to design the better dielectric system to reduce electrical and thermal stresses in order to increase the power of generator in the same volume of core. This paper describes the process used to perform classical design and improvement analysis of stator slot-s insulation.

Keywords: Electromagnetic field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

High voltage generators are being subject to higher voltage rating and are being designed to operate in harsh conditions. Stator windings are the main component of generators in which Electrical, magnetical and thermal stresses remain major failures for insulation degradation accelerated aging. A large number of generators failed due to stator winding problems, mainly insulation deterioration. Insulation degradation assessment plays vital role in the asset life management. Mostly the stator failure is catastrophic causing significant damage to the plant. Other than generation loss, stator failure involves heavy repair or replacement cost. Electro thermal analysis is the main characteristic for improvement design of stator slot-s insulation. Dielectric parameters such as insulation thickness, spacing, material types, geometry of winding and slot are major design consideration. A very powerful method available to analyze electro thermal performance is Finite Element Method (FEM) which is used in this paper. The analysis of various stator coil and slot configurations are used to design the better dielectric system to reduce electrical and thermal stresses in order to increase the power of generator in the same volume of core. This paper describes the process used to perform classical design and improvement analysis of stator slot-s insulation.

Keywords: Electrical field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method, electro thermal

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Authors: David Avis, Luc Devroye, Kazuo Iwama

Abstract:

We consider a cooperative game played by n players against a referee. The players names are randomly distributed among n lockers, with one name per locker. Each player can open up to half the lockers and each player must find his name. Once the game starts the players may not communicate. It has been previously shown that, quite surprisingly, an optimal strategy exists for which the success probability is never worse than 1 − ln 2 ≈ 0.306. In this paper we consider an extension where the number of lockers is greater than the number of players, so that some lockers are empty. We show that the players may still win with positive probability even if there are a constant k number of empty lockers. We show that for each fixed probability p, there is a constant c so that the players can win with probability at least p if they are allowed to open cn lockers.

Keywords: Locker problem, pointer-following algorithms.

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Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes

Abstract:

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.

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Authors: Gábor Kovács

Abstract:

Requirement for pole-changing motors emerged at the very early times of asynchronous motor design. Different solutions have been elaborated and some of them are generally used. An alternative is the so called 3 Y/3 Y pole-changing winding. This paper deals with high power application of this solution. A complete and comprehensive study is introduced, including features and design guidelines. The method presented in this paper is especially suitable for pole numbers being close to each other. The study also reveals that the method is more advantageous then the existing solutions for high power motors with 1:3 pole ratio. Using this motor, a new and complete drive supply system has been proposed as most appropriate arrangement of high power main naval propulsion drive. Further, the method makes possible to extend the pole ratio to 1:6, 1:9, 1:12, etc. At the end, the proposal is further extended to the here so far missing 1:4, 1:5, 1:7 etc. pole ratios. A complete proposal for the theoretically infinite range has been given in this way.

Keywords: Induction motor, pole changing 3Y/3Y, pole phase modulation, pole changing 1:3, 1:4, 1:5, 1:6.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

Abstract:

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack.

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Authors: T. C. B. N. Assunção, J. L. Silvino, P. Resende

Abstract:

The winding hot-spot temperature is one of the most critical parameters that affect the useful life of the power transformers. The winding hot-spot temperature can be calculated as function of the top-oil temperature that can estimated by using the ambient temperature and transformer loading measured data. This paper proposes the estimation of the top-oil temperature by using a method based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines approach. The estimated top-oil temperature is compared with measured data of a power transformer in operation. The results are also compared with methods based on the IEEE Standard C57.91-1995/2000 and Artificial Neural Networks. It is shown that the Least Squares Support Vector Machines approach presents better performance than the methods based in the IEEE Standard C57.91-1995/2000 and artificial neural networks.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Hot-spot Temperature, Least Squares Support Vector, Top-oil Temperature.

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Authors: Mamoun F. Abdel-Hafez

Abstract:

In this paper, the detection of a fault in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement is addressed. The class of faults considered is a bias in the GPS pseudorange measurements. This bias is modeled as an unknown constant. The fault could be the result of a receiver fault or signal fault such as multipath error. A bias bank is constructed based on set of possible fault hypotheses. Initially, there is equal probability of occurrence for any of the biases in the bank. Subsequently, as the measurements are processed, the probability of occurrence for each of the biases is sequentially updated. The fault with a probability approaching unity will be declared as the current fault in the GPS measurement. The residual formed from the GPS and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) measurements is used to update the probability of each fault. Results will be presented to show the performance of the presented algorithm.

Keywords: Estimation and filtering, Statistical data analysis, Faultdetection and identification.

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Authors: Alexander B. Bichkov, Alla A. Mityureva, Valery V. Smirnov

Abstract:

In present work are considered the scheme of evaluation the transition probability in quantum system. It is based on path integral representation of transition probability amplitude and its evaluation by means of a saddle point method, applied to the part of integration variables. The whole integration process is reduced to initial value problem solutions of Hamilton equations with a random initial phase point. The scheme is related to the semiclassical initial value representation approaches using great number of trajectories. In contrast to them from total set of generated phase paths only one path for each initial coordinate value is selected in Monte Karlo process.

Keywords: Path integral, saddle point method, semiclassical approximation, transition probability

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper shows that in the analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch arrivals, there emerges a set of polynomials which are a generalization of Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind. The paper uses these polynomials in assessing the transient behaviour of the overflow (equivalently call blocking) probability in the system. A key figure to note is the proportion of the overflow (or blocking) probability resident in the transient component, which is shown in the results to be more significant at the beginning of the transient and naturally decays to zero in the limit of large t. The results also show that the significance of transients is more pronounced in cases of lighter loads, but lasts longer for heavier loads.

Keywords: batch arrivals, blocking probability, generalizedChebyshev polynomials, overflow probability, queue transientanalysis

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Authors: Hans H. Diel

Abstract:

This paper describes a computer model of Quantum Field Theory (QFT), referred to in this paper as QTModel. After specifying the initial configuration for a QFT process (e.g. scattering) the model generates the possible applicable processes in terms of Feynman diagrams, the equations for the scattering matrix, and evaluates probability amplitudes for the scattering matrix and cross sections. The computations of probability amplitudes are performed numerically. The equations generated by QTModel are provided for demonstration purposes only. They are not directly used as the base for the computations of probability amplitudes. The computer model supports two modes for the computation of the probability amplitudes: (1) computation according to standard QFT, and (2) computation according to a proposed functional interpretation of quantum theory.

Keywords: Computational Modeling, Simulation of Quantum Theory, Quantum Field Theory, Quantum Electrodynamics

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Authors: Jung D. Kwon, Seong J. Kim, Sana U. Nasir, Sung K. Ha

Abstract:

An advanced composite flywheel rotor consisting of intra and inter hybrid rims was designed to optimally increase the energy capacity, and was manufactured using filament winding with in-situ curing. The flywheel has recently attracted considerable attention from many investigators since it possesses great potential in many energy storage applications, including electric utilities, hybrid or electric automobiles, and space vehicles. In this investigation, a comprehensive study was conducted with the intent to implement composites in high performance flywheel applications.The inner two intra-hybrid rims (rims 1 and 2) were manufactured as a whole part through continuous filament winding under in-situ curing conditions, and so were the outer two rims (rims 3 and 4). The outer surface of rim 2 and the inner surface of rim 3 were CNC-tapered for press-fitting. Machined rims were finally press-fitted using a hydraulic press with a maximum compressive force of approximately 1000 ton.

Keywords: composite flywheel rotor, inter hybrid, intra hybrid, multi-rim, interference, in-situ cure, press-fit

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Authors: Syed Munvar Ali, V. Vijaya Kumar Reddy, M. Surya Kalavathi

Abstract:

In this paper, a dual inverter configuration has been implemented for induction motor drive. This isolated dual inverter is capable to produce high quality of output voltage and minimize common mode voltage (CMV). To this isolated dual inverter a decoupled space vector based pulse width modulation (PWM) technique is proposed. Conventional space vector based PWM (SVPWM) techniques require reference voltage vector calculation and sector identification. The proposed decoupled SVPWM technique generates gating pulses from instantaneous phase voltages and gives a CMV of ±v_dc/6. To evaluate proposed algorithm MATLAB based simulation studies are carried on indirect vector controlled open end winding induction motor drive.

Keywords: Inverter configuration, decoupled SVPWM, common mode voltage, vector control.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: Crack size, Fatigue crack propagation, Magnesium alloys, Probability distribution, Specimen thickness.

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Abstract:

Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: Daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to find the effect of load ratio on probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack size and to confirm the good probability distribution in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: Load ratio, fatigue crack propagation life, Magnesium alloys, probability distribution.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, Kriging, probability-based damage detection, probability of damage existence, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: Repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution.

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research fields. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method for unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints.

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Authors: Olimpia Matarazzo, Ivana Baldassarre

Abstract:

The main aim of this study was to examine whether people understand indicative conditionals on the basis of syntactic factors or on the basis of subjective conditional probability. The second aim was to investigate whether the conditional probability of q given p depends on the antecedent and consequent sizes or derives from inductive processes leading to establish a link of plausible cooccurrence between events semantically or experientially associated. These competing hypotheses have been tested through a 3 x 2 x 2 x 2 mixed design involving the manipulation of four variables: type of instructions (“Consider the following statement to be true", “Read the following statement" and condition with no conditional statement); antecedent size (high/low); consequent size (high/low); statement probability (high/low). The first variable was between-subjects, the others were within-subjects. The inferences investigated were Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens. Ninety undergraduates of the Second University of Naples, without any prior knowledge of logic or conditional reasoning, participated in this study. Results suggest that people understand conditionals in a syntactic way rather than in a probabilistic way, even though the perception of the conditional probability of q given p is at least partially involved in the conditionals- comprehension. They also showed that, in presence of a conditional syllogism, inferences are not affected by the antecedent or consequent sizes. From a theoretical point of view these findings suggest that it would be inappropriate to abandon the idea that conditionals are naturally understood in a syntactic way for the idea that they are understood in a probabilistic way.

Keywords: Conditionals, conditional probability, conditional syllogism, inferential task.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, Narayana Prasad Padhy

Abstract:

This paper presents a systematic procedure for modelling and simulation of a power system installed with a power system stabilizer (PSS) and a flexible ac transmission system (FACTS)-based controller. For the design purpose, the model of example power system which is a single-machine infinite-bus power system installed with the proposed controllers is developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK. In the developed model synchronous generator is represented by model 1.1. which includes both the generator main field winding and the damper winding in q-axis so as to evaluate the impact of PSS and FACTS-based controller on power system stability. The model can be can be used for teaching the power system stability phenomena, and also for research works especially to develop generator controllers using advanced technologies. Further, to avoid adverse interactions, PSS and FACTS-based controller are simultaneously designed employing genetic algorithm (GA). The non-linear simulation results are presented for the example power system under various disturbance conditions to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modelling and simultaneous design approach.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, modelling and simulation, MATLAB/SIMULINK, power system stabilizer, thyristor controlledseries compensator, simultaneous design, power system stability.

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Authors: Po-Chun Lin, Jyh-Cherng Gu

Abstract:

This study adopted previous fault patterns, results of detection analysis, historical records and data, and experts- experiences to establish fuzzy principles and estimate the failure probability index of components of a power transformer. Considering that actual parameters and limiting conditions of parameters may differ, this study used the standard data of IEC, IEEE, and CIGRE as condition parameters. According to the characteristics of each condition parameter, relative degradation was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of the factors on the transformer condition. The method of fuzzy mathematics was adopted to determine the subordinate function of the transformer condition. The calculation used the Matlab Fuzzy Tool Box to select the condition parameters of coil winding, iron core, bushing, OLTC, insulating oil and other auxiliary components and factors (e.g., load records, performance history, and maintenance records) of the transformer to establish the fuzzy principles. Examples were presented to support the rationality and effectiveness of the evaluation method of power transformer performance conditions, as based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

Keywords: Fuzzy, relative degradation degree, condition-basedmaintenance, power transformer

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

Abstract:

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.01% in a year.

Keywords: Expected annual loss, Loss estimation, RC structure, Fragility analysis.

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Authors: Bharadwaj Kadiyala, Sunitha V

Abstract:

Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years. This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network. We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration during successful broadcasting.

Keywords: Crossover length, Percolation, Probabilistic broadcast, Wireless adhoc networks

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