Search results for: uncertainty propagation.

Authors: Abdulatif Abdusalam, Mohamed Shaban

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In this paper, we consider the nonlinear pulse propagation through a nonuniform birefringent fiber Bragg grating (FBG) whose index modulation depth varies along the propagation direction. Here, the pulse propagation is governed by the nonlinear birefringent coupled mode (NLBCM) equations. To form the Bragg soliton outside the photonic bandgap (PBG), the NLBCM equations are reduced to the well known NLS type equation by multiple scale analysis. As we consider the pulse propagation in a nonuniform FBG, the pulse propagation outside the PBG is governed by inhomogeneous NLS (INLS) rather than NLS. We then discuss the formation of soliton in the FBG known as Bragg soliton whose central frequency lies outside but close to the PBG of the grating structure. Further, we discuss Bragg soliton compression due to a delicate balance between the SPM and the varying grating induced dispersion. In addition, Bragg soliton collision, Bragg soliton switching and possible logic gates have also been discussed.

Keywords: Bragg grating, Nonuniform fiber, Nonlinear pulse.

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Authors: A. Aissani, H. Benaoudia

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Stochastic comparison has been an important direction of research in various area. This can be done by the use of the notion of stochastic ordering which gives qualitatitive rather than purely quantitative estimation of the system under study. In this paper we present applications of comparison based uncertainty related to entropy in Reliability analysis, for example to design better systems. These results can be used as a priori information in simulation studies.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Stochastic comparison, Reliability, serie's system, imperfect repair.

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Authors: M. Mahboubkhah, H. Fayazfar

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In this research, Forming Limit Diagrams for supertension sheet metals which are using in automobile industry have been obtained. The exerted strains to sheet metals have been measured with four different methods and the errors of each method have also been represented. These methods have been compared with together and the most efficient and economic way of extracting of the exerted strains to sheet metals has been introduced. In this paper total error and uncertainty of FLD extraction procedures have been derived. Determination of the measurement uncertainty in extracting of FLD has a great importance in design and analysis of the sheet metal forming process.

Keywords: Forming Limit Diagram, Major and Minor Strain, Measurement Uncertainty.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: S. Levitsky, R. Bergman

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Fluid rheology may have essential impact on sound propagation in a liquid-filled pipe, especially, in a low frequency range. Rheological parameters of liquid are temperature-sensitive, which ultimately results in a temperature dependence of the wave speed and attenuation in the waveguide. The study is devoted to modeling of this effect at sound propagation in an elastic pipe with polymeric liquid, described by generalized Maxwell model with non-zero high-frequency viscosity. It is assumed that relaxation spectrum is distributed according to the Spriggs law; temperature impact on the liquid rheology is described on the basis of the temperature-superposition principle and activation theory. The dispersion equation for the waveguide, considered as a thin-walled tube with polymeric solution, is obtained within a quasi-one-dimensional formulation. Results of the study illustrate the influence of temperature on sound propagation in the system.

Keywords: Elastic tube, sound propagation, temperature effect, viscoelastic liquid.

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Authors: Gábor Szűcs, Gyula Sallai

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The goal of this paper is to find Wardrop equilibrium in transport networks at case of uncertainty situations, where the uncertainty comes from lack of information. We use simulation tool to find the equilibrium, which gives only approximate solution, but this is sufficient for large networks as well. In order to take the uncertainty into account we have developed an interval-based procedure for finding the paths with minimal cost using the Dempster-Shafer theory. Furthermore we have investigated the users- behaviors using game theory approach, because their path choices influence the costs of the other users- paths.

Keywords: Dempster-Shafer theory, S-O and U-Otransportation network, uncertainty of information, Wardropequilibrium.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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Authors: Zhen Wu, David Lupien St-Pierre, Georges Abdul-Nour

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In decision making under strict uncertainty, decision makers have to choose a decision without any information about the states of nature. The classic criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz and Starr are introduced and compared in a case study of sewer network planning. Furthermore, results from different criteria are discussed and analyzed. Moreover, this paper discusses the idea that decision making under strict uncertainty (DMUSU) can be viewed as a two-player game and thus be solved by a solution concept in game theory: Nash equilibrium.

Keywords: Decision criteria, decision making, sewer network planning, strict uncertainty.

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Authors: Markus Reichhartinger, Martin Horn

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In this paper, the application of sliding-mode control to a permanent-magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is presented. The control design is based on a generic mathematical model of the motor. Some dynamics of the motor and of the power amplification stage remain unmodelled. This model uncertainty is estimated in realtime. The estimation is based on the differentiation of measured signals using the ideas of robust exact differentiator (RED). The control law is implemented on an industrial servo drive. Simulations and experimental results are presented and compared to the same control strategy without uncertainty estimation. It turns out that the proposed concept is superior to the same control strategy without uncertainty estimation especially in the case of non-smooth reference signals.

Keywords: sliding-mode control, Permanent-magnet synchronous motor, uncertainty estimation, robust exact differentiator.

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Authors: M. Safaei, M. Seifert, K. D. Thoben

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Supply network management adopts a systematic and integrative approach to managing the operations and relationships of various parties in a supply network. The objective of the manufactures in their supply network is to reduce inventory costs and increase customer satisfaction levels. One way of doing that is to synchronize delivery performance. A supply network can be described by nodes representing the companies and the links (relationships) between these nodes. Uncertainty in delivery time depends on type of network relationship between suppliers. The problem is to understand how the individual uncertainties influence the total uncertainty of the network and identify those parts of the network, which has the highest potential for improving the total delivery time uncertainty.

Keywords: Delivery time uncertainty, Distribution function, Statistical method, Supply Network.

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Authors: Suchi Barua, Narottam Das, Sven Nordholm, Mohammad Razaghi

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This paper presents nonlinear pulse propagation characteristics for different input optical pulse shapes with various input pulse energy levels in semiconductor optical amplifiers. For simulation of nonlinear pulse propagation, finite-difference beam propagation method is used to solve the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. In this equation, gain spectrum dynamics, gain saturation are taken into account which depends on carrier depletion, carrier heating, spectral-hole burning, group velocity dispersion, self-phase modulation and two photon absorption. From this analysis, we obtained the output waveforms and spectra for different input pulse shapes as well as for different input energies. It shows clearly that the peak position of the output waveforms are shifted toward the leading edge which due to the gain saturation of the SOA for higher input pulse energies. We also analyzed and compared the normalized difference of full-width at half maximum for different input pulse shapes in the SOA.

Keywords: Finite-difference beam propagation method, pulse shape, pulse propagation, semiconductor optical amplifier.

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Authors: Haowei Chen, Kaiqi Xiong

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We have developed a better model for understanding the dynamics of malware spread in WMNs in this paper. The suggested model provides an insight into how viral propagation with energy exhaustion and various dispersed node densities might function. Based on a theoretical examination of the suggested model, we conclude that the threshold parameter could be used to identify the dynamics of viral spread globally. When the threshold is less than 1, the virus may be contained, but if it is greater than 1, a pandemic may result. Lastly, we discuss the various viral propagation strategies in relation to the distributed node densities and communication radii in WMNs. The aforementioned numerical simulation findings could serve as a guarantee of the theoretical analyses’ correctness.

Keywords: Bluetooth Security, Malware Propagation, Wireless Mesh Networks, Stability Analysis.

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Authors: F. Pourhasanzade, S. H. Sabzpoushan

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Computer modeling has played a unique role in understanding electrocardiography. Modeling and simulating cardiac action potential propagation is suitable for studying normal and pathological cardiac activation. This paper presents a 2-D Cellular Automata model for simulating action potential propagation in cardiac tissue. We demonstrate a novel algorithm in order to use minimum neighbors. This algorithm uses the summation of the excitability attributes of excited neighboring cells. We try to eliminate flat edges in the result patterns by inserting probability to the model. We also preserve the real shape of action potential by using linear curve fitting of one well known electrophysiological model.

Keywords: Cellular Automata, Action Potential Propagation, cardiac tissue, Isotropic Pattern, accurate shape of cardiac actionpotential.

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

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The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Leila Motamed-Jahromi, Mohsen Hatami, Alireza Keshavarz

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This research aims at obtaining the equations of pulse propagation in nonlinear plasmonic waveguides created with As₂S₃ chalcogenide materials. Via utilizing Helmholtz equation and first-order perturbation theory, two components of electric field are determined within frequency domain. Afterwards, the equations are formulated in time domain. The obtained equations include two coupled differential equations that considers nonlinear dispersion.

Keywords: Nonlinear optics, propagation equation, plasmonic waveguide.

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Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

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Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: Finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations.

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Authors: Christhu Raj M. R., Rajeev Sukumaran

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Underwater acoustic networks have attracted great attention in the last few years because of its numerous applications. High data rate can be achieved by efficiently modeling the physical layer in the network protocol stack. In Acoustic medium, propagation speed of the acoustic waves is dependent on many parameters such as temperature, salinity, density, and depth. Acoustic propagation speed cannot be modeled using standard empirical formulas such as Urick and Thorp descriptions. In this paper, we have modeled the acoustic channel using real time data of temperature, salinity, and speed of Bay of Bengal (Indian Coastal Region). We have modeled the acoustic channel by using Mackenzie speed equation and real time data obtained from National Institute of Oceanography and Technology. It is found that acoustic propagation speed varies between 1503 m/s to 1544 m/s as temperature and depth differs. The simulation results show that temperature, salinity, depth plays major role in acoustic propagation and data rate increases with appropriate data sets substituted in the simulated model.

Keywords: Underwater Acoustics, Mackenzie Speed Equation, Temperature, Salinity.

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Authors: Khine Phyu, Aung Myint Aye

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This paper presents results of measurements campaign carried out at a carrier frequency of 24GHz with the help of TPLINK router in indoor line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios. Firstly, the radio wave propagation strategies are analyzed in some rooms with router of point to point Ad hoc network. Then floor attenuation is defined for 3 floors in experimental region. The free space model and dual slope models are modified by considering the influence of corridor conditions on each floor. Using these models, indoor signal attenuation can be estimated in modeling of indoor radio wave propagation. These results and modified models can also be used in planning the networks of future personal communications services.

Keywords: radio wave signal analyzing, LOS radio wavepropagation, indoor radio wave propagation, free space model, tworay model and indoor attenuation.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty.

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Authors: M. Ali, K. Masood

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In this paper methodology to exploit creeping wave for body area network BAN communication reliability are described. Creeping wave propagation effects are visualized & analyzed. During this work Dipole, IA antennas various antennas were redesigned using existing designs and their propagation characteristics were verified for optimum performance when used on BANs. These antennas were then applied on body shapes-including rectangular, spherical and cylindrical so that all the effects of actual human body can be taken nearly into account. Parametric simulation scheme was devised so that on Body channel characterization can be visualized at front, curved and back region. In the next phase multiple inputs multiple output MIMO scheme was introduced where virtual antennas were used in order to diminish the effects of antennas on the propagation of waves. Results were, extracted and analyzed at different heights. Finally based on comparative measurement and analysis it was concluded that on body propagation can be exploited to gain spatial diversity.

Keywords: BAN, Creeping Wave, MIMO, WIAs.

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Authors: Jehnming Lin

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In the laser cleavage of glass, the laser is mostly adopted as a heat source to generate a thermal stress state on the substrates. The crack propagation of the soda-lime glass in the laser thermal cleavage with the straight-turning paths was investigated in this study experimentally and numerically. The crack propagation was visualized by a high speed camera with the off-line examination on the micro-crack propagation. The temperature and stress distributions induced by the laser heat source were calculated by ANSYS software based on the finite element method (FEM). With the cutting paths in various turning directions, the experimental and numerical results were in comparison and verified. The fracture modes due to the normal and shear stresses were verified at the turning point of the laser cleavage path. It shows a significant variation of the stress profiles along the straight-turning paths and causes a change on the fracture modes.

Keywords: Laser cleavage, glass, fracture, stress analysis.

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Authors: Munawwar Mohabuth, Andrei Kotousov, Ching-Tai Ng

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On the basis of the theory of nonlinear elasticity, the effect of homogeneous stress on the propagation of Lamb waves in an initially isotropic hyperelastic plate is analysed. The equations governing the propagation of small amplitude waves in the prestressed plate are derived using the theory of small deformations superimposed on large deformations. By enforcing traction free boundary conditions at the upper and lower surfaces of the plate, acoustoelastic dispersion equations for Lamb wave propagation are obtained, which are solved numerically. Results are given for an aluminum plate subjected to a range of applied stresses.

Keywords: Acoustoelasticity, dispersion, finite deformation, lamb waves.

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Authors: Pulak Swain, A. K. Ojha

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Portfolio optimization is based on dealing with the problems of efficient asset allocation. Risk and Expected return are two conflicting criteria in such problems, where the investor prefers the return to be high and the risk to be low. Using multi-objective approach we can solve those type of problems. However the information which we have for the input parameters are generally ambiguous and the input values can fluctuate around some nominal values. We can not ignore the uncertainty in input values, as they can affect the asset allocation drastically. So we use Robust Optimization approach to the problems where the input parameters comes under box uncertainty. In this paper, we solve the multi criteria robust problem with the help of  E- constraint method.

Keywords: Portfolio optimization, multi-objective optimization, E-constraint method, box uncertainty, robust optimization.

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Authors: Guang Zou, Kian Banisoleiman, Arturo González

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Crack initiation and propagation threatens structural integrity of welded joints and normally inspections are assigned based on crack propagation models. However, the approach based on crack propagation models may not be applicable for some high-quality welded joints, because the initial flaws in them may be so small that it may take long time for the flaws to develop into a detectable size. This raises a concern regarding the inspection planning of high-quality welded joins, as there is no generally acceptable approach for modeling the whole fatigue process that includes the crack initiation period. In order to address the issue, this paper reviews treatment methods for crack initiation period and initial crack size in crack propagation models applied to inspection planning. Generally, there are four approaches, by: 1) Neglecting the crack initiation period and fitting a probabilistic distribution for initial crack size based on statistical data; 2) Extrapolating the crack propagation stage to a very small fictitious initial crack size, so that the whole fatigue process can be modeled by crack propagation models; 3) Assuming a fixed detectable initial crack size and fitting a probabilistic distribution for crack initiation time based on specimen tests; and, 4) Modeling the crack initiation and propagation stage separately using small crack growth theories and Paris law or similar models. The conclusion is that in view of trade-off between accuracy and computation efforts, calibration of a small fictitious initial crack size to S-N curves is the most efficient approach.

Keywords: Crack initiation, fatigue reliability, inspection planning, welded joints.

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Authors: N. Miklavčič, U. Kugovnik, N. Galkina, P. Ribarič, R. Vončina

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Today the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is critical also for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models.

Keywords: Measurement uncertainty, microscale meteorological model, CALMET meteorological station, orthogonal regression.

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Authors: N. M. Nawi, M. R. Ransing, R. S. Ransing

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The conjugate gradient optimization algorithm usually used for nonlinear least squares is presented and is combined with the modified back propagation algorithm yielding a new fast training multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm (CGFR/AG). The approaches presented in the paper consist of three steps: (1) Modification on standard back propagation algorithm by introducing gain variation term of the activation function, (2) Calculating the gradient descent on error with respect to the weights and gains values and (3) the determination of the new search direction by exploiting the information calculated by gradient descent in step (2) as well as the previous search direction. The proposed method improved the training efficiency of back propagation algorithm by adaptively modifying the initial search direction. Performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing to the conjugate gradient algorithm from neural network toolbox for the chosen benchmark. The results show that the number of iterations required by the proposed method to converge is less than 20% of what is required by the standard conjugate gradient and neural network toolbox algorithm.

Keywords: Back-propagation, activation function, conjugategradient, search direction, gain variation.

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Authors: Manisha Rathi, Thierry Chaussalet

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Hospital staff and managers are under pressure and concerned for effective use and management of scarce resources. The hospital admissions require many decisions that have complex and uncertain consequences for hospital resource utilization and patient flow. It is challenging to predict risk of admissions and length of stay of a patient due to their vague nature. There is no method to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient. Also, current methods and tools used to predict patients at risk of admission fail to deal with uncertainty in unplanned admission, LOS, patients- characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to deal with uncertainty in health system variables, and handles uncertain relationship among variables. An introduction of machine learning techniques along with statistical methods like Regression methods can be a proposed solution approach to handle uncertainty in health system variables. A model that adapts fuzzy methods to handle uncertain data and uncertain relationships can be an efficient solution to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient.

Keywords: Admission, Fuzzy, Regression, Uncertainty

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Authors: Qun-Feng Zhang, Pan-Pan Yan, Jun Li, Jun-Qing Lei

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Numerical investigation of hammershock propagation in the S-bend intake caused by engine surge has been conducted by using Improved Delayed Detach-Eddy Simulation (IDDES). The effects of surge signatures on hammershock characteristics are obtained. It was shown that once the hammershock is produced, it moves upward to the intake entrance quickly with constant speed, however, the strength of hammershock keeps increasing. Meanwhile, being influenced by the centrifugal force, the hammershock strength on the larger radius side is much larger. Hammershock propagation speed and strength are sensitive to the ramp upgradient of surge signature. A larger ramp up gradient results in higher propagation speed and greater strength. Nevertheless, ramp down profile of surge signature have no obvious effect on the propagation speed and strength of hammershock. Increasing the maximum value of surge signature leads to enhance in the intensity of hammershock, they approximately match quadratic function distribution law.

Keywords: Hammershock, IDDES, S-bend, surge signature.

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Authors: S. Anna Durai, E. Anna Saro

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In general the images used for compression are of different types like dark image, high intensity image etc. When these images are compressed using Counter Propagation Neural Network, it takes longer time to converge. The reason for this is that the given image may contain a number of distinct gray levels with narrow difference with their neighborhood pixels. If the gray levels of the pixels in an image and their neighbors are mapped in such a way that the difference in the gray levels of the neighbor with the pixel is minimum, then compression ratio as well as the convergence of the network can be improved. To achieve this, a Cumulative Distribution Function is estimated for the image and it is used to map the image pixels. When the mapped image pixels are used the Counter Propagation Neural Network yield high compression ratio as well as it converges quickly.

Keywords: Correlation, Counter Propagation Neural Networks, Cummulative Distribution Function, Image compression.

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