Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 32586
Decision Making under Strict Uncertainty: Case Study in Sewer Network Planning

Authors: Zhen Wu, David Lupien St-Pierre, Georges Abdul-Nour


In decision making under strict uncertainty, decision makers have to choose a decision without any information about the states of nature. The classic criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz and Starr are introduced and compared in a case study of sewer network planning. Furthermore, results from different criteria are discussed and analyzed. Moreover, this paper discusses the idea that decision making under strict uncertainty (DMUSU) can be viewed as a two-player game and thus be solved by a solution concept in game theory: Nash equilibrium.

Keywords: Decision criteria, decision making, sewer network planning, strict uncertainty.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1114


[1] S. French, Decision Theory: an introduction to the mathematics of rationality, Ellis Horwood, 1988.
[2] M. Peterson, An introduction to Decision Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
[3] T. Biswas, Decision-making under Uncertainty, St-Martin`s Press, 1997.
[4] J. Eiser and J. van der Pligt, Attitudes and Decisions, Taylor & Frances Routledge, 1988.
[5] K. John Maynard, "Chapter IV. The Principle of Indifference," 1921.
[6] A. Wald, Statistical Decision functions, John Wiley, 1950.
[7] L. J. Savage, The Foundations of Statistics, New York: Dover, 1972.
[8] L. Hurwicz, "A criterion for decision making under uncertainty," Cowles Commission, p. Technical Report 355, 1952.
[9] M. K. Starr, "A Discussion of Some Normative Criteria for Decision- Making under Uncertainty," Industrial Management Review, pp. 71-78, 1966.
[10] H. Chulia, M. Guillen and J. Uribe, "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," IREA - working paper No. IR15/024, 2015.
[11] T. Palmer, "Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate," Rep Prog Phys, vol. 63, pp. 71-116, 2000.
[12] J. Oppenheim and S. Wehner, "The Uncertainty Principle Determines the Nonlocality of Quantum Mechanics," Science, vol. 330, no. 6007, pp. 1072-1074, 2010.
[13] S. H R Ali and J. Buajarern, "New method and uncertainty estimation for plate dimensions and surface measurements," Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2014.
[14] K. R. Hayes, S. C. Barry, G. R. Hosack and G. W. Peters, "Severe uncertainty and info-gap decision theory," Methods in Ecology and Evolution, April 2013.
[15] L. Epstein and T. Wang, "Intertemporal Asset Pricing under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, vol. 69, pp. 265-306, 1994.
[16] R. J. Lempert and C. Myles T, "Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Response: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches," Risk Analysis, pp. 1009-1026, 2007.
[17] Z. Wu, D. Lupien St-Pierre and G. Adbul-Nour, "Literature Review in Decision Making with Uncertainty," Internal report, 2016.
[18] R. Fuller, "Decision Making under Uncertainty - Tutorial," 2 October 2010. (Online). Available: (Accessed 10 December 2016).
[19] M. Sniedovich, "The Art and Science of Modeling Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty," Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services, pp. 111-136, 2007.
[20] L. Savage, "The theory of statistical decision," Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 46, pp. 55-67, 1951.
[21] L. Hurwicz, "The generalized Bayes minimax principle: a criterion for decision making under uncertainty," Cowles Commission Discussion Paper, p. Statistics 335, 1951.
[22] H. Gaspars-Wieloch, "Modifications of the Hurwicz’s decision rule," Central European Journal of Operations Research, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 779-794, 2014.
[23] M. K. Starr, Starr's Product Design and Decision Theory, Prentice-Hall, 1963.
[24] J. Cohen and T. Hickey, "Two Algorithms for Determining Volumes of Convex Polyhedra," vol. 26, pp. 401-414, 1979.
[25] A. Kelly, Decison Making using game theory: An introduction for managers, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
[26] C. D. Aliprantis and S. K. Chakrabarti, Games and Decisin Making, Oxford University Press, 2000.
[27] J. Milnor, "Games against Nature," Decision Processes, pp. 49-49, 1954.
[28] R. Luce and H. Raiffa, Games and decisions: Introduction and critical survey, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1957.
[29] J. Nash, "Equilibrium points in n-person games," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 48-49, 1950.
[30] J. Nash, "Non-Cooperative Games," The Annals of Mathematics, vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 286-295, 1951.
[31] W. Spaniel, Game Theory 101 the complete textbook, 2011.
[32] L. von Ahn, Preliminaries of Game Theory, 2008.
[33] D. L. Keefer and C. W. Kirkwood, "A Multiobjective Decision Analysis: Budget Planning for Product Engineering," vol. 29, pp. 435-442, 1978.
[34] R. Layard, Cost-benefit Analysis, Penguin Books, 1972.
[35] M. M Schapira, C. Aggarwal and S. Akers, "How Patients View Lung Cancer Screening: The Role of Uncertainty in Medical Decision Making," ATS Journals, 2016.
[36] A. Botterud, M. IIic and I. Wangensteen, "Optimal investments in power generation under centralized and decentralized decision making," IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 254-263, 2005.
[37] I. Gianakos, "Patterns of Career Choice and Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy," Journal of Vocational Behavior, vol. 54, no. 2, April 1999.
[38] Y. Liu, H. Gupta, E. Springer and T. Wagener, "Linking science with environmental decision making: Experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management," Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 23, pp. 846-858, July 2008.