Search results for: forecasting models

Authors: F. Z. Eddoug, J. Benhra, R. Benabbou

Abstract:

Excellence and Success are the ultimate goal for any project and in order to achieve it, every project manager looks for the convenient tools and methods. This work proposes a framework that seeks an efficient management of general project through a lean and agile approach. In order to get this objective, the article was divided in two stages, the first one was emphasized on exploring and analyzing the existing project management models and then in the second one the desired framework was created, beginning by focusing on seven existing models and then proposing for each phase of the framework the convenient lean and agile tools.

Keywords: Agility, hybrid project management, lean, scrum.

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Authors: Pedro M. Abreu, Bruno R. Mendes

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The management of pharmacotherapy and the process of dispensing medicines is becoming critical in clinical pharmacy due to the increase of incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, the complexity and customization of therapeutic regimens, the introduction of innovative and more expensive medicines, the unbalanced relation between expenditure and revenue as well as due to the lack of rationalization associated with medication use. For these reasons, co-payments emerged in Europe in the 70s and have been applied over the past few years in healthcare. Co-payments lead to a rationing and rationalization of user’s access under healthcare services and products, and simultaneously, to a qualification and improvement of the services and products for the end-user. This analysis, under hospital practices particularly and co-payment strategies in general, was carried out on all the European regions and identified four reference countries, that apply repeatedly this tool and with different approaches. The structure, content and adaptation of European co-payments were analyzed through 7 qualitative attributes and 19 performance indicators, and the results expressed in a scorecard, allowing to conclude that the German models (total score of 68,2% and 63,6% in both elected co-payments) can collect more compliance and effectiveness, the English models (total score of 50%) can be more accessible, and the French models (total score of 50%) can be more adequate to the socio-economic and legal framework. Other European models did not show the same quality and/or performance, so were not taken as a standard in the future design of co-payments strategies. In this sense, we can see in the co-payments a strategy not only to moderate the consumption of healthcare products and services, but especially to improve them, as well as a strategy to increment the value that the end-user assigns to these services and products, such as medicines.

Keywords: Clinical pharmacy, co-payments, healthcare, medicines.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

Abstract:

As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an ‘optimal’ value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: Cross Validation, Parameter Averaging, Parameter Selection, Regularization Parameter Search.

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Authors: F. Lazzali, M. Farsi

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Several models of vulnerability assessment have been proposed. The selection of one of these models depends on the objectives of the study. The classical methodologies for seismic vulnerability analysis, as a part of seismic risk analysis, have been formulated with statistical criteria based on a rapid observation. The information relating to the buildings performance is statistically elaborated. In this paper, we use the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 to define the relationship between damage and macroseismic intensity to assess the seismic vulnerability. Applying to Algiers area, the first step is to identify building typologies and to assign vulnerability classes. In the second step, damages are investigated according to EMS-98.

Keywords: Damage, EMS-98, inventory building, vulnerability classes

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Authors: L. Yettou

Abstract:

In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models, level density, level density a-parameter, 63Cu(n, xp) and 65Cu(n, xp) reactions.

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Rami Al-Ruzouq, Abdallah Al-Zoubi, Abdel-Rahman Abueladas, Petya Dimitrova

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Protection and proper management of archaeological heritage are an essential process of studying and interpreting the generations present and future. Protecting the archaeological heritage is based upon multidiscipline professional collaboration. This study aims to gather data by different sources (Photogrammetry and Geographic Information System (GIS)) integrated for the purpose of documenting one the of significant archeological sites (Ahl-Alkahf, Jordan). 3D modeling deals with the actual image of the features, shapes and texture to represent reality as realistically as possible by using texture. The 3D coordinates that result of the photogrammetric adjustment procedures are used to create 3D-models of the study area. Adding Textures to the 3D-models surfaces gives a 'real world' appearance to the displayed models. GIS system combined all data, including boundary maps, indicating the location of archeological sites, transportation layer, digital elevation model and orthoimages. For realistic representation of the study area, 3D - GIS model prepared, where efficient generation, management and visualization of such special data can be achieved.

Keywords: Archaeology, close range photogrammetry, ortho-photo, 3D-GIS

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Authors: Nader Ghareeb, R¨udiger Schmidt

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Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model.

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Authors: Michele Sinico

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The present research investigates the effect of symmetry on the perception of happiness and boredom in design products. Three experiments were carried out in order to verify the degree of the visual expressive value on different models of bookcases, wall clocks, and chairs. 60 participants directly indicated the degree of happiness and boredom using 7-point rating scales. The findings show that the participants acknowledged a different value of expressive quality in the different product models. Results show also that symmetry is not a significant constraint for an emotional design project.

Keywords: Product experience, emotional design, symmetry, expressive qualities.

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Authors: Antonio Natali, Ambra Molesini

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In modern distributed software systems, the issue of communication among composing parts represents a critical point, but the idea of extending conventional programming languages with general purpose communication constructs seems difficult to realize. As a consequence, there is a (growing) gap between the abstraction level required by distributed applications and the concepts provided by platforms that enable communication. This work intends to discuss how the Model Driven Software Development approach can be considered as a mature technology to generate in automatic way the schematic part of applications related to communication, by providing at the same time high level specialized languages useful in all the phases of software production. To achieve the goal, a stack of languages (meta-meta¬models) has been introduced in order to describe – at different levels of abstraction – the collaborative behavior of generic entities in terms of communication actions related to a taxonomy of messages. Finally, the generation of platforms for communication is viewed as a form of specification of language semantics, that provides executable models of applications together with model-checking supports and effective runtime environments.

Keywords: Interactions, specific languages, meta-models, model driven development.

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Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

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Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Dunia Nuñez-P

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Bond graph models of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation are presented. The transformer using electrical and magnetic circuits are modelled. These models determine the relation between self and mutual inductances, and the leakage and magnetizing inductances of power transformers with two windings using the properties of a bond graph. The equivalence between electrical and magnetic variables is given. The modelling and analysis using this methodology to three phase power transformers can be extended.

Keywords: Bond graph, electrical transformer, magnetic circuits, nonlinear saturation.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007- 2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the viability of business liquidity models.

Keywords: liquidity, risk management, regulation, global crisis

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

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The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

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The production of a plant can be measured in terms of seeds. The generation of seeds plays a critical role in our social and daily life. The fruit production which generates seeds, depends on the various parameters of the plant, such as shoot length, leaf number, root length, root number, etc When the plant is growing, some leaves may be lost and some new leaves may appear. It is very difficult to use the number of leaves of the tree to calculate the growth of the plant.. It is also cumbersome to measure the number of roots and length of growth of root in several time instances continuously after certain initial period of time, because roots grow deeper and deeper under ground in course of time. On the contrary, the shoot length of the tree grows in course of time which can be measured in different time instances. So the growth of the plant can be measured using the data of shoot length which are measured at different time instances after plantation. The environmental parameters like temperature, rain fall, humidity and pollution are also play some role in production of yield. The soil, crop and distance management are taken care to produce maximum amount of yields of plant. The data of the growth of shoot length of some mustard plant at the initial stage (7,14,21 & 28 days after plantation) is available from the statistical survey by a group of scientists under the supervision of Prof. Dilip De. In this paper, initial shoot length of Ken( one type of mustard plant) has been used as an initial data. The statistical models, the methods of fuzzy logic and neural network have been tested on this mustard plant and based on error analysis (calculation of average error) that model with minimum error has been selected and can be used for the assessment of shoot length at maturity. Finally, all these methods have been tested with other type of mustard plants and the particular soft computing model with the minimum error of all types has been selected for calculating the predicted data of growth of shoot length. The shoot length at the stage of maturity of all types of mustard plants has been calculated using the statistical method on the predicted data of shoot length.

Keywords: Fuzzy time series, neural network, forecasting error, average error.

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Authors: A. A. Hekmatzadeh, A. Karimi-Jashani, N. Talebbeydokhti

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The rate of nitrate adsorption by a nitrate selective ion exchange resin was investigated in a well-stirred batch experiments. The kinetic experimental data were simulated with diffusion models including external mass transfer, particle diffusion and chemical adsorption. Particle pore volume diffusion and particle surface diffusion were taken into consideration separately and simultaneously in the modeling. The model equations were solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson scheme. An optimization technique was employed to optimize the model parameters. All nitrate concentration decay data were well described with the all diffusion models. The results indicated that the kinetic process is initially controlled by external mass transfer and then by particle diffusion. The external mass transfer coefficient and the coefficients of pore volume diffusion and surface diffusion in all experiments were close to each other with the average value of 8.3×10-3 cm/S for external mass transfer coefficient. In addition, the models are more sensitive to the mass transfer coefficient in comparison with particle diffusion. Moreover, it seems that surface diffusion is the dominant particle diffusion in comparison with pore volume diffusion.

Keywords: External mass transfer, pore volume diffusion, surface diffusion, mass action law isotherm.

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Authors: Jana Chvalkovska, Petr Jansky, Petr Teply

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The impact assessment in its various forms has recently become a very important part of policy-making and legislation in many different countries. Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) is yet another set of analytical methods deployed in the legislation of the European Union, of many developed countries as well as in many developing ones such as Mexico, Malaysia and Philippines. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical background for economic models in regulatory impact assessment and an overview of their application especially on the financial market in the Czech Republic. We found out an inadequate application of these models, what makes room for further research in this field.

Keywords: regulatory impact assessment, RIA, impact evaluation, building societies, Czech Republic

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

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A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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Authors: Luciana Abednego, Cecilia Nugraheni

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There are many approaches proposed for solving Sudoku puzzles. One of them is by modelling the puzzles as block world problems. There have been three model for Sudoku solvers based on this approach. Each model expresses Sudoku solver as a parameterized multi agent systems. In this work, we propose a new model which is an improvement over the existing models. This paper presents the development of a Sudoku solver that implements all the proposed models. Some experiments have been conducted to determine the performance of each model.

Keywords: Sudoku puzzle, Sudoku solver, block world problem, parameterized multi agent systems.

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Authors: May-Ling Tan, Yi Su, Chi-Wan Lim, Liang Zhong, Ru-San Tan

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This paper describes an automatic algorithm to restore the shape of three-dimensional (3D) left ventricle (LV) models created from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using a geometry-driven optimization approach. Our basic premise is to restore the LV shape such that the LV epicardial surface is smooth after the restoration. A geometrical measure known as the Minimum Principle Curvature (κ2) is used to assess the smoothness of the LV. This measure is used to construct the objective function of a two-step optimization process. The objective of the optimization is to achieve a smooth epicardial shape by iterative in-plane translation of the MRI slices. Quantitatively, this yields a minimum sum in terms of the magnitude of κ 2, when κ2 is negative. A limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm, L-BFGS-B, is used to solve the optimization problem. We tested our algorithm on an in vitro theoretical LV model and 10 in vivo patient-specific models which contain significant motion artifacts. The results show that our method is able to automatically restore the shape of LV models back to smoothness without altering the general shape of the model. The magnitudes of in-plane translations are also consistent with existing registration techniques and experimental findings.

Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Left Ventricle, ShapeRestoration, Principle Curvature, Optimization

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Authors: Miloš Šeda

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In this paper, mathematical models for permutation flow shop scheduling and job shop scheduling problems are proposed. The first problem is based on a mixed integer programming model. As the problem is NP-complete, this model can only be used for smaller instances where an optimal solution can be computed. For large instances, another model is proposed which is suitable for solving the problem by stochastic heuristic methods. For the job shop scheduling problem, a mathematical model and its main representation schemes are presented.

Keywords: Flow shop, job shop, mixed integer model, representation scheme.

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Authors: A. Kahil, A. Nekmouche, N. Khelil, I. Hamadou, M. Hamizi, Ne. Hannachi

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The objective of this work is to study the influence of the nonlinear behavior models of the concrete (concrete_BAEL and concrete_UNI) as well as the confinement brought by the transverse reinforcement on the seismic response of reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame). These models as well as the confinement are integrated in the Cast3m finite element calculation code. The consideration of confinement (TAC, taking into account the confinement) provided by the transverse reinforcement and the non-consideration of confinement (without consideration of containment, WCC) in the presence and absence of a vertical load is studied. The application was made on a reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame) with 3 levels and 2 spans. The results show that on the one hand, the concrete_BAEL model slightly underestimates the resistance of the RC/frame in the plastic field, whereas the concrete_uni model presents the best results compared to the simplified model "concrete_BAEL", on the other hand, for the concrete-uni model, taking into account the confinement has no influence on the behavior of the RC/frame under imposed displacement up to a vertical load of 500 KN.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete, nonlinear calculation, behavior laws, fiber model confinement, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Arkal Vittal Hegde, L. Ravikiran

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The paper presents the results of a series of experiments conducted on physical models of Quarter-circle breakwater (QBW) in a two dimensional monochromatic wave flume. The purpose of the experiments was to evaluate the reflection coefficient Kr of QBW models of different radii (R) for different submergence ratios (d/hc), where d is the depth of water and hc is the height of the breakwater crest from the sea bed. The radii of the breakwater models studied were 20cm, 22.5cm, 25cm, 27.5cm and submergence ratios used varied from 1.067 to 1.667. The wave climate off the Mangalore coast was used for arriving at the various model wave parameters. The incident wave heights (Hi) used in the flume varied from 3 to 18cm, and wave periods (T) ranged from 1.2 s to 2.2 s. The water depths (d) of 40cm, 45cm and 50cm were used in the experiments. The data collected was analyzed to compute variation of reflection coefficient Kr=Hr/Hi (where Hr=reflected wave height) with the wave steepness Hi/gT2 for various R/Hi (R=breakwater radius) values. It was found that the reflection coefficient increased as incident wave steepness increased. Also as wave height decreases reflection coefficient decreases and as structure radius R increased Kr decreased slightly.

Keywords: Incident wave steepness, Quarter-circle breakwater, Reflection coefficient, Submergence ratio.

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Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

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Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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Authors: Saeed Asiri, Hassan Hedia, Wael Eissa

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The aim of the work was to attenuate the vibration amplitude in CESNA 172 airplane wing by using Functionally Graded Material instead of uniform or composite material. Wing strength was achieved by means of stress analysis study, while wing vibration amplitudes and shapes were achieved by means of Modal and Harmonic analysis. Results were verified by applying the methodology in a simple cantilever plate to the simple model and the results were promising and the same methodology can be applied to the airplane wing model. Aluminum models, Titanium models, and functionally graded materials of Aluminum and titanium results were compared to show a great vibration attenuation after using the FGM. Optimization in FGM gradation satisfied our objective of reducing and attenuating the vibration amplitudes to show the effect of using FGM in vibration behavior. Testing the Aluminum rich models, and comparing it with the titanium rich model was an optimization in this paper. Results have shown a significant attenuation in vibration magnitudes when using FGM instead of Titanium Plate, and Aluminium wing with FGM Spurs instead of Aluminium wings. It was also recommended that in future, changing the graphical scale to 1:10 or even 1:1 when the computers- capabilities allow.

Keywords: Vibration, Attenuation, FGM, ANSYS2011, FEM.

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Authors: Brahim Belattar, Abdelhabib Bourouis

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This paper describes important features of JAPROSIM, a free and open source simulation library implemented in Java programming language. It provides a framework for building discrete event simulation models. The process interaction world view adopted by JAPROSIM is discussed. We present the architecture and major components of the simulation library. A pedagogical example is given in order to illustrate how to use JAPROSIM for building discrete event simulation models. Further motivations are discussed and suggestions for improving our work are given.

Keywords: Discrete Event Simulation, Object-Oriented Simulation, JAPROSIM, Process Interaction Worldview, Java-based modeling and simulation.

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