Search results for: Performance model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11760

Search results for: Performance model

11220 Comprehensive Evaluation on Land Supply System Performance: In Terms of System Transformation

Authors: Liang Hua, Yi Wen

Abstract:

This evaluation of land supply system performance in China shall examine the combination of government functions and national goals in order to perform a cost-benefit analysis of system results. From the author's point of view, it is most productive to evaluate land supply system performance at moments of system transformation for the following reasons. The behavior and input-output change of beneficial results at different times can be observed when the system or policy changes and system performance can be evaluated through a cost-benefit analysis during the process of system transformation. Moreover, this evaluation method can avoid the influence of land resource endowment. Different land resource endowment methods and different economy development periods result in different systems. This essay studies the contents, principles and methods of land supply system performance evaluation. Taking Beijing as an example, this essay optimizes and classifies the land supply index, makes a quantitative evaluation of land supply system performance through principal component analysis (PCA), and finally analyzes the factors that influence land supply system performance at times of system transformation.

Keywords: Land supply, System performance, System transformation

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11219 Decision Trees for Predicting Risk of Mortality using Routinely Collected Data

Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch

Abstract:

It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.

Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.

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11218 A Formulation of the Latent Class Vector Model for Pairwise Data

Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

Abstract:

In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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11217 Modeling User Behaviour by Planning

Authors: Alfredo Milani, Silvia Suriani

Abstract:

A model of user behaviour based automated planning is introduced in this work. The behaviour of users of web interactive systems can be described in term of a planning domain encapsulating the timed actions patterns representing the intended user profile. The user behaviour recognition is then posed as a planning problem where the goal is to parse a given sequence of user logs of the observed activities while reaching a final state. A general technique for transforming a timed finite state automata description of the behaviour into a numerical parameter planning model is introduced. Experimental results show that the performance of a planning based behaviour model is effective and scalable for real world applications. A major advantage of the planning based approach is to represent in a single automated reasoning framework problems of plan recognitions, plan synthesis and plan optimisation.

Keywords: User behaviour, Timed Transition Automata, Automated Planning.

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11216 Performance of Nine Different Types of PV Modules in the Tropical Region

Authors: Jiang Fan

Abstract:

With growth of PV market in tropical region, it is necessary to investigate the performance of different types of PV technology under the tropical weather conditions. Singapore Polytechnic was funded by Economic Development Board (EDB) to set up a solar PV test-bed for the research on performance of different types of PV modules in the country. The PV test-bed installed the nine different types of PV systems that are integrated to power utility grid for monitoring and analyzing their operating performances. This paper presents the 12 months operational data of nine different PV systems and analyses on performances of installed PV systems using energy yield and performance ratio. The nine types of PV systems under test have shown their energy yields ranging from 2.67 to 3.36 kWh/kWp and their performance ratios (PRs) ranging from 70% to 88%.

Keywords: Monocrystalline, Multicrystalline, Amorphous Silicon, Cadmium Telluride and thin film PV.

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11215 Directors- Islamic Code of Ethics

Authors: Ahmad Saiful Azlin Puteh Salin, Norlela Kamaludin, Siti Khadijah Ab Manan, Mohd Shatari Abdul Ghafar

Abstract:

This paper discusses a new model of Islamic code of ethics for directors. Several corporate scandals and local (example Transmile and Megan Media) and overseas corporate (example Parmalat and Enron) collapses show that the current corporate governance and regulatory reform are unable to prevent these events from recurring. Arguably, the code of ethics for directors is under research and the current code of ethics only concentrates on binding the work of the employee of the organization as a whole, without specifically putting direct attention to the directors, the group of people responsible for the performance of the company. This study used a semi-structured interview survey of well-known Islamic scholars such as the Mufti to develop the model. It is expected that the outcome of the research is a comprehensive model of code of ethics based on the Islamic principles that can be applied and used by the company to construct a code of ethics for their directors.

Keywords: Code of ethics, director, Islam, ethics

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11214 Examining the Performance of Three Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Benchmarking Problems

Authors: Konstantinos Metaxiotis, Konstantinos Liagkouras

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the performance of three well-known multiobjective evolutionary algorithms for solving optimization problems. The first algorithm is the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II), the second one is the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA-2), and the third one is the Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms based on decomposition (MOEA/D). The examined multiobjective algorithms are analyzed and tested on the ZDT set of test functions by three performance metrics. The results indicate that the NSGA-II performs better than the other two algorithms based on three performance metrics.

Keywords: MOEAs, Multiobjective optimization, ZDT test functions, performance metrics.

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11213 The Relationship between Human Resource Practices and Firm Performance Case Study: The Philippine Firms Empirical Assessment

Authors: Bella Llego

Abstract:

This study on “The relationship between human resource practices and Firm Performance is a speculative investigation research. The purpose of this research are (1) to provide and to understand of HRM history and current HR practices in the Philippines (2) to examine the extent of HRM practice among its Philippine firms effectively; (3) to investigate the relationship between HRM practice and firm performance in the Philippines. The survey was done to 233 companies in the Philippines. The questionnaire is divided into three parts a) to gathers information on the profile of respondent, b) to measures the extent to which human resource practices are being practiced in their organization c) to measure the organizations performance as perceived by human resource managers and top executives as compared with their competitors in the same industry. As a result an interesting finding was that almost 50 percent of firm performance is affected by the extent of implementation of HR practices in the firm. These results show that HR practices that are in line with the organization’s strategic goals are important for future performance.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Firm performance, Human Resource Practices, Management.

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11212 Wind Farm Power Performance Verification Using Non-Parametric Statistical Inference

Authors: M. Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Dimchev, V. Stoilkov

Abstract:

Accurate determination of wind turbine performance is necessary for economic operation of a wind farm. At present, the procedure to carry out the power performance verification of wind turbines is based on a standard of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). In this paper, nonparametric statistical inference is applied to designing a simple, inexpensive method of verifying the power performance of a wind turbine. A statistical test is explained, examined, and the adequacy is tested over real data. The methods use the information that is collected by the SCADA system (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) from the sensors embedded in the wind turbines in order to carry out the power performance verification of a wind farm. The study has used data on the monthly output of wind farm in the Republic of Macedonia, and the time measuring interval was from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2016. At the end, it is concluded whether the power performance of a wind turbine differed significantly from what would be expected. The results of the implementation of the proposed methods showed that the power performance of the specific wind farm under assessment was acceptable.

Keywords: Canonical correlation analysis, power curve, power performance, wind energy.

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11211 Slip Suppression Sliding Mode Control with Various Chattering Functions

Authors: Shun Horikoshi, Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

This study presents performance analysis results of SMC (Sliding mode control) with changing the chattering functions applied to slip suppression problem of electric vehicles (EVs). In SMC, chattering phenomenon always occurs through high frequency switching of the control inputs. It is undesirable phenomenon and degrade the control performance, since it causes the oscillations of the control inputs. Several studies have been conducted on this problem by introducing some general saturation function. However, study about whether saturation function was really best and the performance analysis when using the other functions, weren’t being done so much. Therefore, in this paper, several candidate functions for SMC are selected and control performance of candidate functions is analyzed. In the analysis, evaluation function based on the trade-off between slip suppression performance and chattering reduction performance is proposed. The analyses are conducted in several numerical simulations of slip suppression problem of EVs. Then, we can see that there is no difference of employed candidate functions in chattering reduction performance. On the other hand, in slip suppression performance, the saturation function is excellent overall. So, we conclude the saturation function is most suitable for slip suppression sliding mode control.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, chattering function, electric vehicle, slip suppression, performance analysis.

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11210 Cloud Monitoring and Performance Optimization Ensuring High Availability and Security

Authors: Inayat Ur Rehman, Georgia Sakellari

Abstract:

Cloud computing has evolved into a vital technology for businesses, offering scalability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness. However, maintaining high availability and optimal performance in the cloud is crucial for reliable services. This paper explores the significance of cloud monitoring and performance optimization in sustaining the high availability of cloud-based systems. It discusses diverse monitoring tools, techniques, and best practices for continually assessing the health and performance of cloud resources. The paper also delves into performance optimization strategies, including resource allocation, load balancing, and auto-scaling, to ensure efficient resource utilization and responsiveness. Addressing potential challenges in cloud monitoring and optimization, the paper offers insights into data security and privacy considerations. Through this thorough analysis, the paper aims to underscore the importance of cloud monitoring and performance optimization for ensuring a seamless and highly available cloud computing environment.

Keywords: Cloud computing, cloud monitoring, performance optimization, high availability.

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11209 A Particle Swarm Optimal Control Method for DC Motor by Considering Energy Consumption

Authors: Yingjie Zhang, Ming Li, Ying Zhang, Jing Zhang, Zuolei Hu

Abstract:

In the actual start-up process of DC motors, the DC drive system often faces a conflict between energy consumption and acceleration performance. To resolve the conflict, this paper proposes a comprehensive performance index that energy consumption index is added on the basis of classical control performance index in the DC motor starting process. Taking the comprehensive performance index as the cost function, particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed to optimize the comprehensive performance. Then it conducts simulations on the optimization of the comprehensive performance of the DC motor on condition that the weight coefficient of the energy consumption index should be properly designed. The simulation results show that as the weight of energy consumption increased, the energy efficiency was significantly improved at the expense of a slight sacrifice of fastness indicators with the comprehensive performance index method. The energy efficiency was increased from 63.18% to 68.48% and the response time reduced from 0.2875s to 0.1736s simultaneously compared with traditional proportion integrals differential controller in energy saving.

Keywords: Comprehensive performance index, energy consumption, acceleration performance, particle swarm optimal control.

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11208 Design of PID Controller for Higher Order Continuous Systems using MPSO based Model Formulation Technique

Authors: S. N. Deepa, G. Sugumaran

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new algebraic scheme to design a PID controller for higher order linear time invariant continuous systems. Modified PSO (MPSO) based model order formulation techniques have applied to obtain the effective formulated second order system. A controller is tuned to meet the desired performance specification by using pole-zero cancellation method. Proposed PID controller is attached with both higher order system and formulated second order system. The closed loop response is observed for stabilization process and compared with general PSO based formulated second order system. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical example from literature.

Keywords: Higher order systems, model order formulation, modified particle swarm optimization, PID controller, pole-zero cancellation.

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11207 Model Predictive Control and Proportional-Integral-Derivative Control of Quadcopters: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Anel Hasić, Naser Prljača

Abstract:

In the domain of autonomous or piloted flights, the accurate control of quadrotor trajectories is of paramount significance for large numbers of tasks. These adaptable aerial platforms find applications that span from high-precision aerial photography and surveillance to demanding search and rescue missions. Among the fundamental challenges confronting quadrotor operation is the demand for accurate following of desired flight paths. To address this control challenge, among others, two celebrated well-established control strategies have emerged as noteworthy contenders: Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control. In this work, we focus on the extensive examination of MPC and PID control techniques by using comprehensive simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink. Intensive simulation results demonstrate the performance of the studied control algorithms.

Keywords: MATLAB, MPC, Model Predictive Control, PID, Proportional-Integral-Derivative, quadcopter, Simulink.

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11206 Kinetic Modeling of the Fischer-Tropsch Reactions and Modeling Steady State Heterogeneous Reactor

Authors: M. Ahmadi Marvast, M. Sohrabi, H. Ganji

Abstract:

The rate of production of main products of the Fischer-Tropsch reactions over Fe/HZSM5 bifunctional catalyst in a fixed bed reactor is investigated at a broad range of temperature, pressure, space velocity, H2/CO feed molar ratio and CO2, CH4 and water flow rates. Model discrimination and parameter estimation were performed according to the integral method of kinetic analysis. Due to lack of mechanism development for Fisher – Tropsch Synthesis on bifunctional catalysts, 26 different models were tested and the best model is selected. Comprehensive one and two dimensional heterogeneous reactor models are developed to simulate the performance of fixed-bed Fischer – Tropsch reactors. To reduce computational time for optimization purposes, an Artificial Feed Forward Neural Network (AFFNN) has been used to describe intra particle mass and heat transfer diffusion in the catalyst pellet. It is seen that products' reaction rates have direct relation with H2 partial pressure and reverse relation with CO partial pressure. The results show that the hybrid model has good agreement with rigorous mechanistic model, favoring that the hybrid model is about 25-30 times faster.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch, heterogeneous modeling, kinetic study.

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11205 Hybrid Recommender Systems using Social Network Analysis

Authors: Kyoung-Jae Kim, Hyunchul Ahn

Abstract:

This study proposes novel hybrid social network analysis and collaborative filtering approach to enhance the performance of recommender systems. The proposed model selects subgroups of users in Internet community through social network analysis (SNA), and then performs clustering analysis using the information about subgroups. Finally, it makes recommendations using cluster-indexing CF based on the clustering results. This study tries to use the cores in subgroups as an initial seed for a conventional clustering algorithm. This model chooses five cores which have the highest value of degree centrality from SNA, and then performs clustering analysis by using the cores as initial centroids (cluster centers). Then, the model amplifies the impact of friends in social network in the process of cluster-indexing CF.

Keywords: Social network analysis, Recommender systems, Collaborative filtering, Customer relationship management

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11204 Comparative Performance Analysis of Nonlinearity Cancellation Techniques for MOS-C Realization in Integrator Circuits

Authors: Hasan Çiçekli, Ahmet Gökçen, Uğur Çam

Abstract:

In this paper, a comparative performance analysis of mostly used four nonlinearity cancellation techniques used to realize the passive resistor by MOS transistors, is presented. The comparison is done by using an integrator circuit which is employing sequentially Op-amp, OTRA and ICCII as active element. All of the circuits are implemented by MOS-C realization and simulated by PSPICE program using 0.35μm process TSMC MOSIS model parameters. With MOS-C realization, the circuits became electronically tunable and fully integrable which is very important in IC design. The output waveforms, frequency responses, THD analysis results and features of the nonlinearity cancellation techniques are also given.

Keywords: Integrator circuits, MOS-C realization, nonlinearity cancellation, tunable resistors.

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11203 Multiple Targets Classification and Fuzzy Logic Decision Fusion in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ahmad Aljaafreh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) to model the detection of M vehicles in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The HHMM model contains an extra level of hidden Markov model to model the temporal transitions of each state of the first HMM. By modeling the temporal transitions, only those hypothesis with nonzero transition probabilities needs to be tested. Thus, this method efficiently reduces the computation load, which is preferable in WSN applications.This paper integrates several techniques to optimize the detection performance. The output of the states of the first HMM is modeled as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), where the number of states and the number of Gaussians are experimentally determined, while the other parameters are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM). HHMM is used to model the sequence of the local decisions which are based on multiple hypothesis testing with maximum likelihood approach. The states in the HHMM represent various combinations of vehicles of different types. Due to the statistical advantages of multisensor data fusion, we propose a heuristic based on fuzzy weighted majority voting to enhance cooperative classification of moving vehicles within a region that is monitored by a wireless sensor network. A fuzzy inference system weighs each local decision based on the signal to noise ratio of the acoustic signal for target detection and the signal to noise ratio of the radio signal for sensor communication. The spatial correlation among the observations of neighboring sensor nodes is efficiently utilized as well as the temporal correlation. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of this scheme.

Keywords: Classification, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, hidden Markov model

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11202 Using Historical Data for Stock Prediction of a Tech Company

Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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11201 Efficient Design of Distribution Logistics by Using a Model-Based Decision Support System

Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

Abstract:

The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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11200 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.

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11199 Performance of Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility: Evidence from U.S. Stock Market

Authors: Petr Seďa

Abstract:

This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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11198 Line Balancing in the Hard Disk Drive Process Using Simulation Techniques

Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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11197 Effect of the Machine Frame Structures on the Frequency Responses of Spindle Tool

Authors: Yuan L. Lai, Yong R. Chen, Jui P. Hung, Tzuo L. Luo, Hsi H. Hsiao

Abstract:

Chatter vibration has been a troublesome problem for a machine tool toward the high precision and high speed machining. Essentially, the machining performance is determined by the dynamic characteristics of the machine tool structure and dynamics of cutting process. Therefore the dynamic vibration behavior of spindle tool system greatly determines the performance of machine tool. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influences of the machine frame structure on the dynamic frequency of spindle tool unit through finite element modeling approach. To this end, a realistic finite element model of the vertical milling system was created by incorporated the spindle-bearing model into the spindle head stock of the machine frame. Using this model, the dynamic characteristics of the milling machines with different structural designs of spindle head stock and identical spindle tool unit were demonstrated. The results of the finite element modeling reveal that the spindle tool unit behaves more compliant when the excited frequency approaches the natural mode of the spindle tool; while the spindle tool show a higher dynamic stiffness at lower frequency that may be initiated by the structural mode of milling head. Under this condition, it is concluded that the structural configuration of spindle head stock associated with the vertical column of milling machine plays an important role in determining the machining dynamics of the spindle unit.

Keywords: Machine tools, Compliance, Frequency response function, Machine frame structure, Spindle unit

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11196 Emotional Learning based Intelligent Robust Adaptive Controller for Stable Uncertain Nonlinear Systems

Authors: Ali Reza Mehrabian, Caro Lucas

Abstract:

In this paper a new control strategy based on Brain Emotional Learning (BEL) model has been introduced. A modified BEL model has been proposed to increase the degree of freedom, controlling capability, reliability and robustness, which can be implemented in real engineering systems. The performance of the proposed BEL controller has been illustrated by applying it on different nonlinear uncertain systems, showing very good adaptability and robustness, while maintaining stability.

Keywords: Learning control systems, emotional decision making, nonlinear systems, adaptive control.

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11195 Agent/Group/Role Organizational Model to Simulate an Industrial Control System

Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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11194 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial

Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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11193 Traffic Behaviour of VoIP in a Simulated Access Network

Authors: Jishu Das Gupta, Srecko Howard, Angela Howard

Abstract:

Insufficient Quality of Service (QoS) of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is a growing concern that has lead the need for research and study. In this paper we investigate the performance of VoIP and the impact of resource limitations on the performance of Access Networks. The impact of VoIP performance in Access Networks is particularly important in regions where Internet resources are limited and the cost of improving these resources is prohibitive. It is clear that perceived VoIP performance, as measured by mean opinion score [2] in experiments, where subjects are asked to rate communication quality, is determined by end-to-end delay on the communication path, delay variation, packet loss, echo, the coding algorithm in use and noise. These performance indicators can be measured and the affect in the Access Network can be estimated. This paper investigates the congestion in the Access Network to the overall performance of VoIP services with the presence of other substantial uses of internet and ways in which Access Networks can be designed to improve VoIP performance. Methods for analyzing the impact of the Access Network on VoIP performance will be surveyed and reviewed. This paper also considers some approaches for improving performance of VoIP by carrying out experiments using Network Simulator version 2 (NS2) software with a view to gaining a better understanding of the design of Access Networks.

Keywords: Codec, DiffServ, Droptail, RED, VOIP

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11192 A Control Model for Improving Safety and Efficiency of Navigation System Based on Reinforcement Learning

Authors: Almutasim Billa A. Alanazi, Hal S. Tharp

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically Reinforcement Learning (RL), has proven helpful in many control path planning technologies by maximizing and enhancing their performance, such as navigation systems. Since it learns from experience by interacting with the environment to determine the optimal policy, the optimal policy takes the best action in a particular state, accounting for the long-term rewards. Most navigation systems focus primarily on "arriving faster," overlooking safety and efficiency while estimating the optimum path, as safety and efficiency are essential factors when planning for a long-distance journey. This paper represents an RL control model that proposes a control mechanism for improving navigation systems. Also, the model could be applied to other control path planning applications because it is adjustable and can accept different properties and parameters. However, the navigation system application has been taken as a case and evaluation study for the proposed model. The model utilized a Q-learning algorithm for training and updating the policy. It allows the agent to analyze the quality of an action made in the environment to maximize rewards. The model gives the ability to update rewards regularly based on safety and efficiency assessments, allowing the policy to consider the desired safety and efficiency benefits while making decisions, which improves the quality of the decisions taken for path planning compared to the conventional RL approaches.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, control system, navigation systems, reinforcement learning.

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11191 Harmonic Analysis and Performance Improvement of a Wind Energy Conversions System with Double Output Induction Generator

Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

Wind turbines with double output induction generators can operate at variable speed permitting conversion efficiency maximization over a wide range of wind velocities. This paper presents the performance analysis of a wind driven double output induction generator (DOIG) operating at varying shafts speed. A periodic transient state analysis of DOIG equipped with two converters is carried out using a hybrid induction machine model. This paper simulates the harmonic content of waveforms in various points of drive at different speeds, based on the hybrid model (dqabc). Then the sinusoidal and trapezoidal pulse-width–modulation control techniques are used in order to improve the power factor of the machine and to weaken the injected low order harmonics to the supply. Based on the frequency spectrum, total harmonics distortion, distortion factor and power factor. Finally advantages of sinusoidal and trapezoidal pulse width modulation techniques are compared.

Keywords: DOIG, Harmonic Analysis, Wind.

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