Search results for: Performance Forecasting

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Z. X. Chen, T. S. Phua, X. P. Wang, G. -Q. Lo, D. -L. Kwong

Abstract:

This paper presents device simulations on the vertical silicon nanowire tunneling FET (VSiNW TFET). Simulations show that a narrow nanowire and thin gate oxide is required for good performance, which is expected even for conventional MOSFETs. The gate length also needs to be more than the nanowire diameter to prevent short channel effects. An effect more unique to TFET is the need for abrupt source to channel junction, which is shown to improve the performance. The ambipolar effect suppression by reducing drain doping concentration is also explored and shown to have little or no effect on performance.

Keywords: Device simulation, MEDICI, tunneling FET (TFET), vertical silicon nanowire.

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Authors: Jian Huang, Weixin Qian, Hongfang Ma, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

Cobalt catalysts were supported on extruded silica carrier and different-type (SiO₂, γ-Al₂O₃) commercial supports with different shapes and sizes to produce heavy hydrocarbons for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The catalysts were characterized by N₂ physisorption and H₂-TPR. The catalytic performance of the catalysts was tested in a fixed bed reactor. The results of Fischer-Tropsch synthesis performance showed that the cobalt catalyst supported on spherical silica supports displayed a higher activity and a higher selectivity to C₅⁺ products, due to the fact that the active components were only distributed in the surface layer of spherical carrier, and the influence of gas diffusion restriction on catalytic performance was weakened. Therefore, it can be concluded that the eggshell cobalt catalyst was superior to precious metals modified catalysts in the synthesis of heavy hydrocarbons.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, cobalt catalyst, support shape, heavy hydrocarbons.

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Authors: Ngozi Nwogu, Mohammed Kajama, Edward Gobina

Abstract:

Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions are considered as the greatest environmental challenge the world is facing today. The tasks to control the emissions include the recovery of CO2 from flue gas. This concern has been improved due to recent advances in materials process engineering resulting in the development of inorganic gas separation membranes with excellent thermal and mechanical stability required for most gas separations. This paper, therefore, evaluates the performance of a highly selective inorganic membrane for CO2 recovery applications. Analysis of results obtained is in agreement with experimental literature data. Further results show the prediction performance of the membranes for gas separation and the future direction of research. The materials selection and the membrane preparation techniques are discussed. Method of improving the interface defects in the membrane and its effect on the separation performance has also been reviewed and in addition advances to totally exploit the potential usage of this innovative membrane.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, gas separation, inorganic ceramic membrane & perm selectivity.

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Authors: Jung Hyun Kim, Min Ye Ku, Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

In this experiment, we investigated the performance of two types of heat sink, swaged- and extruded-type, used in the inverter of industrial electricity generator. The swaged-type heat sink has 62 fins, and the extruded-type has 38 fins having the same dimension as that of the swaged-type. But the extruded-type heat sink maintains the same heat transfer area by the laterally waved surface which has 1 mm in radius. As a result, the swaged- and extruded-type heat sinks released 71% and 64% of the heat incoming to the heat sink, respectively. The other incoming heat were naturally convected and radiated to the ambient. In spite of 40% decrease in number of fins, the heat release performance of the extruded-type heat sink was lowered only 7% than that of the swaged-type. We believe that, this shows the increment of effective heat transfer area by the laterally waved surface of fins and the better heat transfer property of the extruded-type heat sink.

Keywords: Solar Inverter, Heat Sink, Forced Convection, Heat Transfer, Performance Evaluation.

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Authors: Low Khong Teck, Hasan S. M. Al-Khaffaf, Abdullah Zawawi Talib, Tan Kian Lam

Abstract:

In this paper, an extended study is performed on the effect of different factors on the quality of vector data based on a previous study. In the noise factor, one kind of noise that appears in document images namely Gaussian noise is studied while the previous study involved only salt-and-pepper noise. High and low levels of noise are studied. For the noise cleaning methods, algorithms that were not covered in the previous study are used namely Median filters and its variants. For the vectorization factor, one of the best available commercial raster to vector software namely VPstudio is used to convert raster images into vector format. The performance of line detection will be judged based on objective performance evaluation method. The output of the performance evaluation is then analyzed statistically to highlight the factors that affect vector quality.

Keywords: Performance Evaluation, Vectorization, Median Filter, Gaussian Noise.

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

Environmental performance of the U.S. States is investigated for the period of 1990 – 2007 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The SFA accounts for both efficiency measure and stochastic noise affecting a frontier. The frontier is formed using indicators of GDP, energy consumption, population, and CO2 emissions. For comparability, all indicators are expressed as ratios to total. Statistical information of the Energy Information Agency of the United States is used. Obtained results reveal the bell - shaped dynamics of environmental efficiency scores. The average efficiency scores rise from 97.6% in 1990 to 99.6% in 1999, and then fall to 98.4% in 2007. The main factor is insufficient decrease in the rate of growth of CO2 emissions with regards to the growth of GDP, population and energy consumption. Data for 2008 following the research period allow for an assumption that the environmental performance of the U.S. States has improved in the last years.

Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis, environmental performance, interstate comparisons.

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

Abstract:

Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs.

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Authors: B. S. Yew , B. L. Ong , R. B. Ahmad

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This paper describes the performance of TCP Vegas over the wireless IPv6 network. The performance of TCP Vegas is evaluated using network simulator (ns-2). The simulation experiment investigates how packet spacing affects the network delay, network throughput and network efficiency of TCP Vegas. Moreover, we investigate how the variable FTP packet sizes affect the network performance. The result of the simulation experiment shows that as the packet spacing is implements, the network delay is reduces, network throughput and network efficiency is optimizes. As the FTP packet sizes increase, the ratio of delay per throughput decreases. From the result of experiment, we propose the appropriate packet size in transmitting file transfer protocol application using TCP Vegas with packet spacing enhancement over wireless IPv6 environment in ns-2. Additionally, we suggest the appropriate ratio in determining the appropriate RTT and buffer size in a network.

Keywords: TCP Vegas, Packet Spacing, Packet Size, Wireless IPv6, ns-2

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Hui-Ling Huang, Yue-Yang Chen, Ming-Chi Tsai, Cheng-Jiun Lee

Abstract:

Recently, a great number of theoretical frameworks have been proposed to develop the linkages between knowledge management (KM) and organizational strategies. However, while there has been much theorizing and case study in the area, validated research models integrating KM and information technology strategies for empirical testing of these theories have been scarce. In this research, we try to develop a research model for explaining the relationship between KM strategy and IT strategy and their effects on performance. Finally, meaningful propositions and conclusions are derived, and suggestions for future research are proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Knowledge management strategy, information technology strategy, knowledge management performance, information technology performance

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Authors: Haroun A.K. Shahad, Nabeel Abdul-Hadi

Abstract:

Experiments were carried out to evaluate the influence of the addition of hydrogen to the inlet air on the performance of a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine. Hydrogen was injected in the inlet manifold. The addition of hydrogen was done on energy replacement basis. It was found that the addition of hydrogen improves the combustion process due to superior combustion characteristics of hydrogen in comparison to conventional diesel fuels. It was also found that 10% energy replacement improves the engine thermal efficiency by about 40% and reduces the sfc by about 35% however the volumetric efficiency was reduced by about 35%.

Keywords: Hydrogen, Blended fuel, Manifold injection , Performance , Combustion

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Authors: Ibrahim Naeimifar, Omid Naeemifar

Abstract:

Evaluation of the excavation-induced ground movements is an important design aspect of support systems in urban areas. Geological and geotechnical conditions of an excavation area have significant effects on excavation-induced ground movements and the related damage. This paper is aimed at studying the performance of excavation walls supported by nails in jointed rock medium. The performance of nailed walls is investigated based on evaluating the excavation-induced ground movements. For this purpose, a set of calibrated 2D finite element models are developed by taking into account the nail-rock-structure interactions, the anisotropic properties of jointed rock, and the staged construction process. The results of this paper highlight effects of different parameters such as joint inclinations, anisotropy of rocks and nail inclinations on deformation parameters of excavation wall supported by nails.

Keywords: Finite element, jointed rock, nailing, performance.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

Abstract:

Nonlinear system identification is becoming an important tool which can be used to improve control performance. This paper describes the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for controlling a car. The vehicle must follow a predefined path by supervised learning. Backpropagation gradient descent method was performed to train the ANFIS system. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in controlling the non linear system.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Fuzzy logic, neural network, nonlinear system, control

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Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

Abstract:

Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, assessment performance model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index.

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Authors: Hasnida Abdul Wahab, Shahrina Md Nordin, Lai Fong Woon, Hasrina Mustafa

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There has been a growing emphasis in communication management from simple coordination of promotional tools to a complex strategic process. This study will examine the current marketing communications and engagement strategies used in addressing the key stakeholders. In the case of fertilizer industry in Malaysia, there has been little empirical research on stakeholder communication when major challenges facing the modern corporation is the need to communicate its identity, its values and products in order to distinguish itself from competitors. The study will employ both quantitative and qualitative methods and the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to establish a causal relationship amongst the key factors of stakeholder communication strategies and increment in consumers- choice/acceptance and impact on financial performance. One of the major contributions is a conceptual framework for communication strategies and engagement in increasing consumers- acceptance level and the firm-s financial performance.

Keywords: Consumers' acceptance, financial performance, stakeholder communication strategies.

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Authors: Tristan O’Neill, Trina Myers, Jarrod Trevathan

Abstract:

The Tropical Data Hub (TDH) is a virtual research environment that provides researchers with an e-research infrastructure to congregate significant tropical data sets for data reuse, integration, searching, and correlation. However, researchers often require data and metadata synthesis across disciplines for cross-domain analyses and knowledge discovery. A triplestore offers a semantic layer to achieve a more intelligent method of search to support the synthesis requirements by automating latent linkages in the data and metadata. Presently, the benchmarks to aid the decision of which triplestore is best suited for use in an application environment like the TDH are limited to performance. This paper describes a new evaluation tool developed to analyze both features and performance. The tool comprises a weighted decision matrix to evaluate the interoperability, functionality, performance, and support availability of a range of integrated and native triplestores to rank them according to requirements of the TDH.

Keywords: Virtual research environment, Semantic Web, performance analysis, tropical data hub.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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Authors: Yongzhong Wu, Ping Ji

Abstract:

This paper proposes a genetic algorithm based on a new replacement strategy to solve the quadratic assignment problems, which are NP-hard. The new replacement strategy aims to improve the performance of the genetic algorithm through well balancing the convergence of the searching process and the diversity of the population. In order to test the performance of the algorithm, the instances in QAPLIB, a quadratic assignment problem library, are tried and the results are compared with those reported in the literature. The performance of the genetic algorithm is promising. The significance is that this genetic algorithm is generic. It does not rely on problem-specific genetic operators, and may be easily applied to various types of combinatorial problems.

Keywords: Quadratic assignment problem, Genetic algorithm, Replacement strategy, QAPLIB.

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Authors: Kee-Young Kwahk

Abstract:

Previous studies have indicated that one of the most critical failure reasons of enterprise systems is the lack of knowledge sharing and utilization across organizations. As a consequence, many information systems researchers have paid attention to examining the effect of absorptive capacity closely associated with knowledge sharing and transferring on IS usage performance. A lack of communications and interactions due to a lack of organizational citizenship behavior might lead to weak absorptive capacity and thus negatively influence knowledge sharing across organizations. In this study, a theoretical model which delves into the relationship between usage performance of enterprise systems and its determinants was established.

Keywords: Usage performance of information systems, Social exchanges, Enterprise systems.

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Authors: Kornchanok Chidchaisuwan

Abstract:

This project is a study of learning activities of creating experience from actual work performance to enhance career skills and technological usage abilities for uses in advertising career work performance for undergraduate students who enroll in the Creative Strategies for Advertising Course. The instructional model consisted of two learning approaches: (1) simulation-based learning, which is the learning with the use of simulations of working in various sections of creative advertisement work with their own work process and steps as well as the virtual technology learning in advertising companies; and (2) project-based learning, which is the learning that the learners engage in actual work performance based on the process of creating and producing creative advertisement works to be present on new media channels. The results of learning management showed that the effects on the students in various aspects were as follows: (1) the students had experience in the advertising process at the higher level; and (2) the students had work performance skills from the actual work performance that enabled them to possess the abilities to create and present their own work; also, they had created more efficient work outcomes and disseminated them on new media channels at a better level.

Keywords: Technical literacy, career skill, experience, simulation-based learning.

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Authors: Maged Ahmed, Ahmed El-Mahdy

Abstract:

In this paper, Selective Adaptive Parallel Interference Cancellation (SA-PIC) technique is presented for Multicarrier Direct Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (MC DS-CDMA) scheme. The motivation of using SA-PIC is that it gives high performance and at the same time, reduces the computational complexity required to perform interference cancellation. An upper bound expression of the bit error rate (BER) for the SA-PIC under Rayleigh fading channel condition is derived. Moreover, the implementation complexities for SA-PIC and Adaptive Parallel Interference Cancellation (APIC) are discussed and compared. The performance of SA-PIC is investigated analytically and validated via computer simulations.

Keywords: Adaptive interference cancellation, communicationsystems, multicarrier signal processing, spread spectrum

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Authors: Umair Baig, Kohei Nagai

Abstract:

At highly congested reinforcement regions, which is common at beam-column joint area, clear spacing between parallel bars becomes less than maximum normal aggregate size (20mm) which has not been addressed in any design code and specifications. Limited clear spacing between parallel bars (herein after thin cover) is one of the causes which affect anchorage performance. In this study, an experimental investigation was carried out to understand anchorage performance of reinforcement in Self-Compacting Concrete (SCC) and Normal Concrete (NC) at highly congested regions under uni-axial tensile loading.  Column bar was pullout whereas; beam bars were offset from column reinforcement creating thin cover as per site condition. Two different sizes of coarse aggregate were used for NC (20mm and 10mm). Strain gauges were also installed along the bar in some specimens to understand the internal stress mechanism. Test results reveal that anchorage performance is affected at highly congested reinforcement region in NC with maximum aggregate size 20mm whereas; SCC and Small Aggregate (10mm) gives better structural performance. 

Keywords: Anchorage capacity, bond, Normal Concrete, self-compacting concrete.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Suwicha Chankapoe, Nattawat Winya, Narupon Pittayaprasertkul

Abstract:

In order to determine the performance and key design parameters of rocket, the erosion of nozzle throat during solid rocket motor burning have to be calculated. This study aims to predict the nozzle throat erosion in solid rocket motors according to the thrust profile of motor in operating conditions and develop a model for optimum performance of rocket. We investigate the throat radius change in the static test programs. The standard method and thrust coefficient  are used for adjusting into the ideal performance for conical nozzles. Pressure and thrust data acquired from the tests are analyzed to determine the instantaneous nozzle throat diameter variation throughout the test duration. The result shows good agreement of calculated correlation comparing with measured erosion rate data showing agreement within 1.6 mm/s. Nozzle thrust coefficient loss is found approximately 24% form nozzle throat erosion during burning.

Keywords: Erosion, nozzle throat, thrust coefficient.

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Markov Chain, regenerative processes, risk models, ruin probability, strong stability.

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Authors: Marco Soares dos Santos, Camila Nicola Boeri, Jorge Augusto Ferreira, Fernando Neto da Silva

Abstract:

The highly nonlinear characteristics of drying processes have prompted researchers to seek new nonlinear control solutions. However, the relation between the implementation complexity, on-line processing complexity, reliability control structure and controller-s performance is not well established. The present paper proposes high performance nonlinear fuzzy controllers for a real-time operation of a drying machine, being developed under a consistent match between those issues. A PCI-6025E data acquisition device from National Instruments® was used, and the control system was fully designed with MATLAB® / SIMULINK language. Drying parameters, namely relative humidity and temperature, were controlled through MIMOs Hybrid Bang-bang+PI (BPI) and Four-dimensional Fuzzy Logic (FLC) real-time-based controllers to perform drying tests on biological materials. The performance of the drying strategies was compared through several criteria, which are reported without controllers- retuning. Controllers- performance analysis has showed much better performance of FLC than BPI controller. The absolute errors were lower than 8,85 % for Fuzzy Logic Controller, about three times lower than the experimental results with BPI control.

Keywords: Drying control, Fuzzy logic control, Intelligent temperature-humidity control.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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