Search results for: nonlinear model predictive control

Authors: Rahul Bansal, Sudipta Majumdar

Abstract:

This paper presents the closed form nonlinear expressions of bipolar junction transistor (BJT) differential amplifier (DA) using perturbation method. Circuit equations have been derived using Kirchhoff’s voltage law (KVL) and Kirchhoff’s current law (KCL). The perturbation method has been applied to state variables for obtaining the linear and nonlinear terms. The implementation of the proposed method is simple. The closed form nonlinear expressions provide better insights of physical systems. The derived equations can be used for signal processing applications.

Keywords: Differential amplifier, perturbation method, Taylor series.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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Movable power sources of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) are the important research done in the current fuel cells (FC) field. The PEMFC system control influences the cell performance greatly and it is a control system for industrial complex problems, due to the imprecision, uncertainty and partial truth and intrinsic nonlinear characteristics of PEMFCs. In this paper an adaptive PI control strategy using neural network adaptive Morlet wavelet for control is proposed. It is based on a single layer feed forward neural networks with hidden nodes of adaptive morlet wavelet functions controller and an infinite impulse response (IIR) recurrent structure. The IIR is combined by cascading to the network to provide double local structure resulting in improving speed of learning. The proposed method is applied to a typical 1 KW PEMFC system and the results show the proposed method has more accuracy against to MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) method.

Keywords: Adaptive Control, Morlet Wavelets, PEMFC.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory using neural network model reference controller for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV "r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of high noise, and also can be concluded that the fast SA of similar AUV systems with economy in energy of batteries can be asserted during the underwater missions in search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Gholamhasan Payganeh

Abstract:

High-speed turbomachine can experience significant centrifugal and gas bending loads. As a result, the compressor blades must be able to resist high-frequency oscillations due to surge or stall condition in flow field dynamics. In this paper, vibration characteristics of the 6th stage blade compressor have been examined in detail with, using 3-D finite element (FE) methods. The primary aim of this article is to gain an understanding of nonlinear vibration induced in the blade against different loading conditions. The results indicate the nonlinear behavior of the blade as a result of the amplitude of resonances or material properties. Since one of the leading causes of turbine blade failure is high cycle fatigue, simulations were started by specifying the stress distribution in the blade due to the centrifugal rotation. Next, resonant frequencies and critical speeds of the blade were defined by modal analysis. Finally, the harmonic analysis was simulated on the blades.

Keywords: Nonlinear vibration, modal analysis, resonance, frequency response, compressor blade.

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Authors: Jinfeng Wang, Yang Liu, Hong Li

Abstract:

In this article, we propose a new approximate procedure based on He’s variational iteration method for solving nonlinear hyperbolic equations. We introduce two transformations q = ut and σ = ux and formulate a first-order system of equations. We can obtain the approximation solution for the scalar unknown u, time derivative q = ut and space derivative σ = ux, simultaneously. Finally, some examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of our method.

Keywords: Hyperbolic wave equation, Nonlinear, He’s variational iteration method, Transformations

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Authors: Hong Dongchen, Chen Qiuxiao, Wu Shuang

Abstract:

Systematic Science reveals the complex nonlinear mechanisms of behavior in urban system. However, when confronted with such system, most city planners in China are still utilizing simple linear thinking to learn and understand this open complex giant system. In this paper, the hypercycle theory was introduced, which is one of the basis theories of systematic science. Based on the analysis of the reasons for the failure of current urban planning in China, and in consideration of the nonlinear characteristics of the urban system as well, optimization ideas for urban planning formulation were presented such as the shift from blueprint planning to progressive planning and from the rigid urban planning management control to its dynamically monitor and in time feedback.

Keywords: Systematic science, hypercycle theory, urban planning.

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Authors: Kang-Gyu Park, Sun-Jong Park, Hong Jae Yim, Hyo-Gyung Kwak

Abstract:

This paper attempts to evaluate the effect of fire damage on concrete by using nonlinear resonance vibration method, one of the nonlinear nondestructive method. Concrete exhibits not only nonlinear stress-strain relation but also hysteresis and discrete memory effect which are contained in consolidated materials. Hysteretic materials typically show the linear resonance frequency shift. Also, the shift of resonance frequency is changed according to the degree of micro damage. The degree of the shift can be obtained through nonlinear resonance vibration method. Five exposure scenarios were considered in order to make different internal micro damage. Also, the effect of post-fire-curing on fire-damaged concrete was taken into account to conform the change in internal damage. Hysteretic nonlinearity parameter was obtained by amplitudedependent resonance frequency shift after specific curing periods. In addition, splitting tensile strength was measured on each sample to characterize the variation of residual strength. Then, a correlation between the hysteretic nonlinearity parameter and residual strength was proposed from each test result.

Keywords: Fire damaged concrete, nonlinear resonance vibration method, nonlinearity parameter, post-fire-curing, splitting tensile strength.

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Authors: M. Sadeghzadeh, M. Teshnehlab

Abstract:

Feature selection has recently been the subject of intensive research in data mining, specially for datasets with a large number of attributes. Recent work has shown that feature selection can have a positive effect on the performance of machine learning algorithms. The success of many learning algorithms in their attempts to construct models of data, hinges on the reliable identification of a small set of highly predictive attributes. The inclusion of irrelevant, redundant and noisy attributes in the model building process phase can result in poor predictive performance and increased computation. In this paper, a novel feature search procedure that utilizes the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is presented. The ACO is a metaheuristic inspired by the behavior of real ants in their search for the shortest paths to food sources. It looks for optimal solutions by considering both local heuristics and previous knowledge. When applied to two different classification problems, the proposed algorithm achieved very promising results.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Classification, Datamining, Feature selection.

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Authors: R. Rinkeviciene, B. Kundrotas, S. Lisauskas

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors take a look at advantages of multiphase induction motors comparing them with three phase ones and present the applications where six-phase induction motors are used. They elaborate the mathematical model of six-phase induction motor with two similar stator three phase winding, shifted by 30 degrees in space and three phase winding in rotor, in synchronous reference frame for soft starting and scalar control. The authors simulate and discuss results of speed and torque starting transients.

Keywords: Model, scalar control, six-phase induction motor.

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Authors: Wissem Saidani, Yacine Morsly, Mohand Saïd Djouadi

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In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking multiple maneuvering targets using switching multiple target motion models. With this paper, we aim to contribute in solving the problem of model-based body motion estimation by using data coming from visual sensors. The Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) algorithm is specially designed to track accurately targets whose state and/or measurement (assumed to be linear) models changes during motion transition. However, when these models are nonlinear, the IMM algorithm must be modified in order to guarantee an accurate track. In this paper we propose to avoid the Extended Kalman filter because of its limitations and substitute it with the Unscented Kalman filter which seems to be more efficient especially according to the simulation results obtained with the nonlinear IMM algorithm (IMMUKF). To resolve the problem of data association, the JPDA approach is combined with the IMM-UKF algorithm, the derived algorithm is noted JPDA-IMM-UKF.

Keywords: Estimation, Kalman filtering, Multi-Target Tracking, Visual servoing, data association.

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Authors: S.A. Al-Qallaf, S.A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

Abstract:

Among all FACTS devices, the unified power flow controller (UPFC) is considered to be the most versatile device. This is due to its capability to control all the transmission system parameters (impedance, voltage magnitude, and phase angle). With the growing interest in UPFC, the attention to develop a mathematical model has increased. Several models were introduced for UPFC in literature for different type of studies in power systems. In this paper a novel comparison study between two dynamic models of UPFC with their proposed control strategies.

Keywords: FACTS, UPFC, Dynamic Modeling, PWM, Fundamental Frequency.

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Authors: Y. T. Tsai, Jin H. Huang

Abstract:

The sound pressure level (SPL) of the moving-coil loudspeaker (MCL) is often simulated and analyzed using the lumped parameter model. However, the SPL of a MCL cannot be simulated precisely in the high frequency region, because the value of cone effective area is changed due to the geometry variation in different mode shapes, it is also related to affect the acoustic radiation mass and resistance. Herein, the paper presents the inverse method which has a high ability to measure the value of cone effective area in various frequency points, also can estimate the MCL electroacoustic parameters simultaneously. The proposed inverse method comprises the direct problem, adjoint problem, and sensitivity problem in collaboration with nonlinear conjugate gradient method. Estimated values from the inverse method are validated experimentally which compared with the measured SPL curve result. Results presented in this paper not only improve the accuracy of lumped parameter model but also provide the valuable information on loudspeaker cone design.

Keywords: Inverse problem, cone effective area, loudspeaker, nonlinear conjugate gradient method.

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Authors: H. Abaali

Abstract:

The power buck converter is the most widely used DC/DC converter topology. They have a very large application area such as DC motor drives, photovoltaic power system which require fast transient responses and high efficiency over a wide range of load current. This work proposes, the modelling of DC/DC power buck converter using state-space averaging method and the current-mode control using a proportional-integral controller. The efficiency of the proposed model and control loop are evaluated with operating point changes. The simulation results proved the effectiveness of the linear model of DC/DC power buck converter.

Keywords: DC/DC power buck converter, Linear current control, State-space averaging method.

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Authors: P. Santiprapan, K-L. Areerak, K-N. Areerak

Abstract:

This paper presents the mathematical model and control strategy on DQ frame of shunt active power filter. The structure of the shunt active power filter is the voltage source inverter (VSI). The pulse width modulation (PWM) with PI controller is used in the paper. The concept of DQ frame to apply with the shunt active power filter is described. Moreover, the detail of the PI controller design for two current loops and one voltage loop are fully explained. The DQ axis with Fourier (DQF) method is applied to calculate the reference currents on DQ frame. The simulation results show that the control strategy and the design method presented in the paper can provide the good performance of the shunt active power filter. Moreover, the %THD of the source currents after compensation can follow the IEEE Std.519-1992.

Keywords: shunt active power filter, mathematical model, DQ control strategy, DQ axis with Fourier, pulse width modulation control.

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Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar, S. F. Kodad

Abstract:

Recent developments in Soft computing techniques, power electronic switches and low-cost computational hardware have made it possible to design and implement sophisticated control strategies for sensorless speed control of AC motor drives. Such an attempt has been made in this work, for Sensorless Speed Control of Induction Motor (IM) by means of Direct Torque Fuzzy Control (DTFC), PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and MRAS speed estimator strategy, which is absolutely nonlinear in its nature. Direct torque control is known to produce quick and robust response in AC drive system. However, during steady state, torque, flux and current ripple occurs. So, the performance of conventional DTC with PI speed regulator can be improved by implementing fuzzy logic techniques. Certain important issues in design including the space vector modulated (SVM) 3-Ф voltage source inverter, DTFC design, generation of reference torque using PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and sensor less speed estimator have been resolved. The proposed scheme is validated through extensive numerical simulations on MATLAB. The simulated results indicate the sensor less speed control of IM with DTFC and PI-type fuzzy speed regulator provides satisfactory high dynamic and static performance compare to conventional DTC with PI speed regulator.

Keywords: Sensor-less Speed Estimator, Fuzzy Logic Control(FLC), SVM, DTC, DTFC, IM, fuzzy speed regulator.

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Authors: M.G.A. Nassef, Linghan Li, C. Schenck, B. Kuhfuss

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Design and modeling of nonlinear systems require the knowledge of all inside acting parameters and effects. An empirical alternative is to identify the system-s transfer function from input and output data as a black box model. This paper presents a procedure using least squares algorithm for the identification of a feed drive system coefficients in time domain using a reduced model based on windowed input and output data. The command and response of the axis are first measured in the first 4 ms, and then least squares are applied to predict the transfer function coefficients for this displacement segment. From the identified coefficients, the next command response segments are estimated. The obtained results reveal a considerable potential of least squares method to identify the system-s time-based coefficients and predict accurately the command response as compared to measurements.

Keywords: feed drive systems, least squares algorithm, onlineparameter identification, short time window

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Authors: R. I. Liban, N. Tayşi

Abstract:

This paper deals with a nonlinear finite element analysis to examine the behavior up to failure of cantilever composite steel-concrete beams which are prestressed externally. 'Pre-' means stressing the high strength external tendons in the steel beam section before the concrete slab is added. The composite beam contains a concrete slab which is connected together with steel I-beam by means of perfect shear connectors between the concrete slab and the steel beam which is subjected to static loading. A finite element analysis will be done to study the effects of external prestressed tendons on the composite steel-concrete beams by locating the tendons in different locations (profiles). ANSYS version 12.1 computer program is being used to analyze the represented three-dimensional model of the cantilever composite beam. This model gives all these outputs, mainly load-displacement behavior of the cantilever end and in the middle span of the simple support part.

Keywords: Composite steel-concrete beams, external prestressing, finite element analysis, ANSYS.

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Authors: Kaan T. Oner, Ertugrul Cetinsoy, Mustafa Unel, Mahmut F. Aksit, Ilyas Kandemir, Kayhan Gulez

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In this work a dynamic model of a new quadrotor aerial vehicle that is equipped with a tilt-wing mechanism is presented. The vehicle has the capabilities of vertical take-off/landing (VTOL) like a helicopter and flying horizontal like an airplane. Dynamic model of the vehicle is derived both for vertical and horizontal flight modes using Newton-Euler formulation. An LQR controller for the vertical flight mode has also been developed and its performance has been tested with several simulations.

Keywords: Control, Dynamic model, LQR, Quadrotor, Tilt-wing, VTOL.

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Authors: Radim Farana, Bogdan Walek, Michal Janosek, Jaroslav Zacek

Abstract:

This paper presents the advantages of fuzzy control use in technological processes control. The paper presents a real application of the Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Control, developed at the University of Ostrava for the control of physical models in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory. The paper presents an example of a sensitive non-linear model, such as a magnetic levitation model and obtained results which show how modern information technologies can help to solve actual technical problems. A special method based on the LFLC controller with partial components is presented in this paper followed by the method of automatic context change, which is very helpful to achieve more accurate control results. The main advantage of the used system is its robustness in changing conditions demonstrated by comparing with conventional PID controller. This technology and real models are also used as a background for problem-oriented teaching, realized at the department for master students and their collaborative as well as individual final projects.

Keywords: Control, fuzzy logic, sensitive system, technological proves.

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Authors: Miloš Šeda, Tomáš Březina

Abstract:

In this paper, we focus on the use of knowledge bases in two different application areas – control of systems with unknown or strongly nonlinear models (i.e. hardly controllable by the classical methods), and robot motion planning in eight directions. The first one deals with fuzzy logic and the paper presents approaches for setting and aggregating the rules of a knowledge base. Te second one is concentrated on a case-based reasoning strategy for finding the path in a planar scene with obstacles.

Keywords: fuzzy controller, fuzzification, rule base, inference, defuzzification, genetic algorithm, neural network, case-based reasoning

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: Alexander Winkler, Jozef Suchý

Abstract:

This paper investigates simple implicit force control algorithms realizable with industrial robots. A lot of approaches already published are difficult to implement in commercial robot controllers, because the access to the robot joint torques is necessary or the complete dynamic model of the manipulator is used. In the past we already deal with explicit force control of a position controlled robot. Well known schemes of implicit force control are stiffness control, damping control and impedance control. Using such algorithms the contact force cannot be set directly. It is further the result of controller impedance, environment impedance and the commanded robot motion/position. The relationships of these properties are worked out in this paper in detail for the chosen implicit approaches. They have been adapted to be implementable on a position controlled robot. The behaviors of stiffness control and damping control are verified by practical experiments. For this purpose a suitable test bed was configured. Using the full mechanical impedance within the controller structure will not be practical in the case when the robot is in physical contact with the environment. This fact will be verified by simulation.

Keywords: Damping control, impedance control, robot force control, stability, stiffness control.

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Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos

Abstract:

A Finite Element (FE) based scheme is presented for quantifying guided wave interaction with Localised Nonlinear Structural Damage (LNSD) within structures of arbitrary layering and geometric complexity. The through-thickness mode-shape of the structure is obtained through a wave and finite element method. This is applied in a time domain FE simulation in order to generate time harmonic excitation for a specific wave mode. Interaction of the wave with LNSD within the system is computed through an element activation and deactivation iteration. The scheme is validated against experimental measurements and a WFE-FE methodology for calculating wave interaction with damage. Case studies for guided wave interaction with crack and delamination are presented to verify the robustness of the proposed method in classifying and identifying damage.

Keywords: Layered Structures, nonlinear ultrasound, wave interaction with nonlinear damage, wave finite element, finite element.

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Authors: Gang Liu, Can Wang, Runnan Zhang, Quan Wang, Huimin Song, Shaomin Ji

Abstract:

Biba model can protect information integrity but might deny various non-malicious access requests of the subjects, thereby decreasing the availability in the system. Therefore, a mechanism that allows exceptional access control is needed. Break the Glass (BTG) strategies refer an efficient means for extending the access rights of users in exceptional cases. These strategies help to prevent a system from stagnation. An approach is presented in this work for integrating Break the Glass strategies into the Biba model. This research proposes a model, BTG-Biba, which provides both an original Biba model used in normal situations and a mechanism used in emergency situations. The proposed model is context aware, can implement a fine-grained type of access control and primarily solves cross-domain access problems. Finally, the flexibility and availability improvement with the use of the proposed model is illustrated.

Keywords: Biba model, break the glass, context, cross-domain, fine-grained.

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Authors: Ardeshir Karami Mohammadi

Abstract:

A Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller using state variables is proposed for a class of multi input-multi output systems. Adaptation law is of variable structure type and switching functions is designed based on stability requirements. Global exponential stability is proved based on Lyapunov criterion. Transient behavior is analyzed using sliding mode control and shows perfect model following at a finite time.

Keywords: Adaptive control, Model reference, Variablestructure, MIMO system.

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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Authors: S. Venkateshwarlu, B. P. Muni, A. D. Rajkumar, J. Praveen

Abstract:

Custom power is a technology driven product and service solution which embraces a family devices such as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR), Distributed Shunt Compensator (DSTATCOM), Solid State Breaker (SSB) etc which will provide power quality functions at distribution voltages. The rapid response of these devices enables them to operate in real time, providing continuous and dynamic control of the supply including voltage and reactive power regulation, harmonic reduction and elimination of voltage dips. This paper presents the benefits of multilevel inverters when they are used for DPC based custom power devices. Power flow control mechanism, salient features, advantages and disadvantages of direct power control (DPC) using lookup table, SVM, predictive voltage vector and hybrid DPC strategies are discussed in this paper. Simulation results of three level inverter based STATCOM, harmonic analysis of multi level inverters are presented at the end.

Keywords: DPC, DPC-SVM, Dynamic voltage restorer, DSTATCOM, Multilevel inverter, PWM Converter, PDPC, VF-DPC.

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Authors: Amirhossein Chambari, Seyed Habib Rahmaty, Vahid Hajipour, Aida Karimi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a bi-objective model for the facility location problem under a congestion system. The idea of the model is motivated by applications of locating servers in bank automated teller machines (ATMS), communication networks, and so on. This model can be specifically considered for situations in which fixed service facilities are congested by stochastic demand within queueing framework. We formulate this model with two perspectives simultaneously: (i) customers and (ii) service provider. The objectives of the model are to minimize (i) the total expected travelling and waiting time and (ii) the average facility idle-time. This model represents a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem which belongs to the class of NP-hard problems. In addition, to solve the model, two metaheuristic algorithms including nondominated sorting genetic algorithms (NSGA-II) and non-dominated ranking genetic algorithms (NRGA) are proposed. Besides, to evaluate the performance of the two algorithms some numerical examples are produced and analyzed with some metrics to determine which algorithm works better.

Keywords: Queuing, Location, Bi-objective, NSGA-II, NRGA

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Authors: A. Reyes-Salazar, M. D. Llanes-Tizoc, E. Bojorquez, F. Valenzuela-Beltran, J. Bojorquez, J. R. Gaxiola-Camacho, A. Haldar

Abstract:

Seismic analysis of steel buildings is usually based on the use of the concentrated mass (ML) matrix and the Rayleigh damping matrix (C). Similarly, the initial stiffness matrix (KO) and the first two modes associated to lateral vibrations are commonly used to develop the matrix C. The evaluation of the accuracy of these practices for the particular case of steel buildings with moment-resisting steel frames constitutes the main objective of this research. For this, the nonlinear seismic responses of three models of steel frames, representing low-, medium- and high-rise steel buildings, are considered. Results indicate that if the ML matrix is used, shears and bending moments in columns are underestimated by up to 30% and 65%, respectively, when compared to the corresponding results obtained with the consistent mass matrix (MC). It is also shown that if KO is used in C instead the tangent stiffness matrix (Kt), axial loads in columns are underestimated by up to 80%. It is concluded that the consistent mass matrix should be used in the structural modelling of moment resisting steel frames and the tangent stiffness matrix should be used to develop the Rayleigh damping matrix.

Keywords: Moment-resisting steel frames, consistent and concentrated mass matrices, nonlinear seismic response, Rayleigh damping.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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