Search results for: empirical validation

Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

Abstract:

This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease dataset, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: Lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, Ridge regression, Lasso Regression, elastic net regression.

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Authors: E. E. Mantilla, C. R. Reyes, B. G. Ramos

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This paper describes the development of a WLAN propagation model, using Spectral Analyzer measurements. The signal is generated by two Access Points (APs) on the base floor at the administrative Communication School of ESPOL building. In general, users do not have a Q&S reference about a wireless network; however, this depends on the level signal as a function of frequency, distance and other path conditions between receiver and transmitter. Then, power density of the signal decrease as it propagates through space and data transfer rate is affected. This document evaluates and implements empirical mathematical formulation for the characterization of WLAN radio wave propagation on two aisles of the building base floor.

Keywords: frequency, Spectral Analyzer, transmitter, WLAN.

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Authors: K. Bommanna Raja, M.Madheswaran, K.Thyagarajah

Abstract:

A higher order spline interpolated contour obtained with up-sampling of homogenously distributed coordinates for segmentation of kidney region in different classes of ultrasound kidney images has been developed and presented in this paper. The performance of the proposed method is measured and compared with modified snake model contour, Markov random field contour and expert outlined contour. The validation of the method is made in correspondence with expert outlined contour using maximum coordinate distance, Hausdorff distance and mean radial distance metrics. The results obtained reveal that proposed scheme provides optimum contour that agrees well with expert outlined contour. Moreover this technique helps to preserve the pixels-of-interest which in specific defines the functional characteristic of kidney. This explores various possibilities in implementing computer-aided diagnosis system exclusively for US kidney images.

Keywords: Ultrasound Kidney Image – Kidney Segmentation –Active Contour – Markov Random Field – Higher Order SplineInterpolation

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Authors: Toktam Zoughi, Reza Boostani

Abstract:

Determining depth of anesthesia is a challenging problem in the context of biomedical signal processing. Various methods have been suggested to determine a quantitative index as depth of anesthesia, but most of these methods suffer from high sensitivity during the surgery. A novel method based on energy scattering of samples in the wavelet domain is suggested to represent the basic content of electroencephalogram (EEG) signal. In this method, first EEG signal is decomposed into different sub-bands, then samples are squared and energy of samples sequence is constructed through each scale and time, which is normalized and finally entropy of the resulted sequences is suggested as a reliable index. Empirical Results showed that applying the proposed method to the EEG signals can classify the awake, moderate and deep anesthesia states similar to BIS.

Keywords: Depth of anesthesia, EEG, BIS, Wavelet transforms.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

Abstract:

Series of laboratory tests were carried out to study the extent of scour caused by a three-dimensional wall jets exiting from a square cross-section nozzle and into a non-cohesive sand beds. Previous observations have indicated that the effect of the tail water depth was significant for densimetric Froude number greater than ten. However, the present results indicate that the cut off value could be lower depending on the value of grain size-to-nozzle width ratio. Numbers of equations are drawn out for a better scaling of numerous scour parameters. Also suggested the empirical prediction of scour to predict the scour centre line profile and plan view of scour profile at any particular time.

Keywords: Densimetric Froude Number, Jets, Nozzle, Sand, Scour, Tailwater, Time.

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Authors: Asep Saepuloh, Katsuaki Koike

Abstract:

Field mapping activity for an active volcano mainly in the Torrid Zone is usually hampered by several problems such as steep terrain and bad atmosphere conditions. In this paper we present a simple solution for such problem by a combination Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and geostatistical methods. By this combination, we could reduce the speckle effect from the SAR data and then estimate roughness distribution of the pyroclastic flow deposits. The main purpose of this study is to detect spatial distribution of new pyroclastic flow deposits termed as P-zone accurately using the β°data from two RADARSAT-1 SAR level-0 data. Single scene of Hyperion data and field observation were used for cross-validation of the SAR results. Mt. Merapi in central Java, Indonesia, was chosen as a study site and the eruptions in May-June 2006 were examined. The P-zones were found in the western and southern flanks. The area size and the longest flow distance were calculated as 2.3 km2 and 6.8 km, respectively. The grain size variation of the P-zone was mapped in detail from fine to coarse deposits regarding the C-band wavelength of 5.6 cm.

Keywords: Geostatistical Method, Mt. Merapi, Pyroclastic, RADARSAT-1.

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Authors: Elinda Ai-Lim Lee, Kok Wai Wong, Chun Che Fung

Abstract:

The use of Virtual Reality (VR) in schools and higher education is proliferating. Due to its interactive and animated features, it is regarded as a promising technology to increase students- spatial ability. Spatial ability is assumed to have a prominent role in science and engineering domains. However, research concerning individual differences such as spatial ability in the context of VR is still at its infancy. Moreover, empirical studies that focus on the features of VR to improve spatial ability are to date rare. Thus, this paper explores the possible educational values of VR in relation to spatial ability to call for more research concerning spatial ability in the context of VR based on studies in computerbased learning. It is believed that the incorporation of state-of-the-art VR technology for educational purposes should be justified by the enhanced benefits for the target learners.

Keywords: Ability-as-compensator, ability-as-enhancer, spatialability, virtual reality.

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Authors: Bolanle F. Oladejo, Victor T. Odumuyiwa, Amos A. David

Abstract:

Knowledge is attributed to human whose problemsolving behavior is subjective and complex. In today-s knowledge economy, the need to manage knowledge produced by a community of actors cannot be overemphasized. This is due to the fact that actors possess some level of tacit knowledge which is generally difficult to articulate. Problem-solving requires searching and sharing of knowledge among a group of actors in a particular context. Knowledge expressed within the context of a problem resolution must be capitalized for future reuse. In this paper, an approach that permits dynamic capitalization of relevant and reliable actors- knowledge in solving decision problem following Economic Intelligence process is proposed. Knowledge annotation method and temporal attributes are used for handling the complexity in the communication among actors and in contextualizing expressed knowledge. A prototype is built to demonstrate the functionalities of a collaborative Knowledge Management system based on this approach. It is tested with sample cases and the result showed that dynamic capitalization leads to knowledge validation hence increasing reliability of captured knowledge for reuse. The system can be adapted to various domains.

Keywords: Actors' communication, knowledge annotation, recursive knowledge capitalization, visualization.

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Authors: András Király, Tamás Varga, János Abonyi

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Since supply chains highly impact the financial performance of companies, it is important to optimize and analyze their Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The synergistic combination of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Monte Carlo simulation is applied to determine the optimal reorder point of warehouses in supply chains. The goal of the optimization is the minimization of the objective function calculated as the linear combination of holding and order costs. The required values of service levels of the warehouses represent non-linear constraints in the PSO. The results illustrate that the developed stochastic simulator and optimization tool is flexible enough to handle complex situations.

Keywords: stochastic processes, empirical distributions, Monte Carlo simulation, PSO, supply chain management

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Authors: Debojyoti Mitra

Abstract:

The present study concentrates on solving the along wind oscillation problem of a tall square building from first principles and across wind oscillation problem of the same from empirical relations obtained by experiments. The criterion for human comfort at the worst condition at the top floor of the building is being considered and a limiting value of height of a building for a given cross section is predicted. Numerical integrations are carried out as and when required. The results show severeness of across wind oscillations in comparison to along wind oscillation. The comfort criterion is combined with across wind oscillation results to determine the maximum allowable height of a building for a given square cross-section.

Keywords: Tall Building, Along-wind Response, Across-wind Response, Human Comfort.

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Authors: Sumit Gandhi

Abstract:

The effect of an abruptly expanding channel on the main characteristics of hydraulic jump is considered experimentally. The present study was made for supercritical flow of Froude number varying between 2 to 9 and approach to expanded channel width ratios 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.8. Physical explanations of the variation of these characteristics under varying flow conditions are discussed based on the observation drawn from experimental results. The analytical equation for the sequent depth ratio in an abruptly expanding channel as given by eminent hydraulic engineers are verified well with the experimental data for all expansion ratios, and the empirical relation was also verified with the present experimental data.

Keywords: Abruptly Expanding Channel, Hydraulic Jump, Efficiency, Sequent Depth Ratio.

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

Abstract:

India has the most year-round favorable sunny conditions along with the second-highest solar irradiation in the world, the country holds the potential to become the global solar hub. The solar and wind-based generation capacity has skyrocketed in India with the successful effort of the Ministry of Renewable Energy, whereas the potential of rooftop based solar power generation has yet to be explored for proposed solar cities in India. The research aims to analyze the gap in the energy scenario in Jodhpur City and proposes interventions of solar energy generation systems as a catalyst for urban development. The research is based on the system concept which deals with simulation between the city system as a whole and its interactions between different subsystems. A system-dynamics based mathematical model is developed by identifying the control parameters using regression and correlation analysis to assess the gap in energy sector. The base model validation is done using the past 10 years timeline data collected from secondary sources. Further, energy consumption and solar energy generation-based projection are made for testing different scenarios to conclude the feasibility for maintaining the city level energy independence till 2031.

Keywords: City, consumption, energy, generation.

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Authors: A. Umemuro, M. Sato, M. Narita, S. Hori, S. Sakurai, T. Nakayama, A. Nakazawa, T. Ogura

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Mammography requires the detection of very small calcifications, and physicians search for microcalcifications by magnifying the images as they read them. The mouse is necessary to zoom in on the images, but this can be tiring and distracting when many images are read in a single day. Therefore, an image magnification system combining an eye-detector and a simple electroencephalograph (EEG) scanner was devised, and its operability was evaluated. Two experiments were conducted in this study: the measurement of eye-detection error using an eye-detector and the measurement of the time required for image magnification using a simple EEG scanner. Eye-detector validation showed that the mean distance of eye-detection error ranged from 0.64 cm to 2.17 cm, with an overall mean of 1.24 ± 0.81 cm for the observers. The results showed that the eye detection error was small enough for the magnified area of the mammographic image. The average time required for point magnification in the verification of the simple EEG scanner ranged from 5.85 to 16.73 seconds, and individual differences were observed. The reason for this may be that the size of the simple EEG scanner used was not adjustable, so it did not fit well for some subjects. The use of a simple EEG scanner with size adjustment would solve this problem. Therefore, the image magnification system using the eye-detector and the simple EEG scanner is useful.

Keywords: EEG scanner, eye-detector, mammography, observers.

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Authors: Kolis Karel, Kubicek Ales

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The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the customers- issues in company corporate governance and the financial performance. At the beginning theoretical background consisting stakeholder theory and corporate governance is presented. On this theoretical background, the empirical research is built, collecting data of 60 Czech joint stock companies- boards considering their relationships with customers. Correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis were employed to test the sample on two hypotheses. The weak positive correlation between stakeholder approach and the company size was identified. But both hypotheses were not supported, because there was no significant relation of independent variables to financial performance.

Keywords: customers, stakeholder theory, corporate governance, financial performance

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Authors: Javad Khazaei, Rick S. Blum

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Distributed control is an efficient and flexible approach for coordination of multi-agent systems. One of the main challenges in designing a distributed controller is identifying the governing dynamics of the dynamical systems. Data-driven system identification is currently undergoing a revolution. With the availability of high-fidelity measurements and historical data, model-free identification of dynamical systems can facilitate the control design without tedious modeling of high-dimensional and/or nonlinear systems. This paper develops a distributed control design using consensus theory for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems using sparse identification of system dynamics. Compared with existing consensus designs that heavily rely on knowing the detailed system dynamics, the proposed model-free design can accurately capture the dynamics of the system with available measurements and input data and provide guaranteed performance in consensus and tracking problems. Heterogeneous damped oscillators are chosen as examples of dynamical system for validation purposes.

Keywords: Consensus tracking, distributed control, model-free control, sparse identification of dynamical systems.

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Authors: S. K. Berdibayeva, Z. Z. Beissenova, A. Z. Ayaganova

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the aim of this study was to analyze ethnopsychological content of “Aitys" as a process of creative competition in Kazakh traditional folklore by means of Transaction analysis (three types of Ego states are Parent, Adult and Child). “Aitys" is as sources of Kazakh national self-consciousness and form of oral Kazakh national creativity. Comparative psychological analysis of classical and modern “aityses" is carried out. Empirical proved that the victory in “Aitys" is provided with a position of egostate “Adult".

Keywords: aitys, creative competition, Ego state, transaction analysis

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Authors: Ondřej Nowak

Abstract:

This paper presents an exploration into the structure of the corporate governance network and interlocking directorates in the Czech Republic. First a literature overview and a basic terminology of the network theory is presented. Further in the text, statistics and other calculations relevant to corporate governance networks are presented. For this purpose an empirical data set consisting of 2 906 joint stock companies in the Czech Republic was examined. Industries with the highest average number of interlocks per company were healthcare, and energy and utilities. There is no observable link between the financial performance of the company and the number of its interlocks. Also interlocks with financial companies are very rare.

Keywords: Corporate Governance, Interlocking Directorates, Network Theory, Czech Republic.

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Authors: Ninlawat Phuangchoke, Waraporn Viyanon, Setta Sasananan

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The most important process of the water treatment plant process is coagulation, which uses alum and poly aluminum chloride (PACL). Therefore, determining the dosage of alum and PACL is the most important factor to be prescribed. This research applies an artificial neural network (ANN), which uses the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm to create a mathematical model (Soft Jar Test) for chemical dose prediction, as used for coagulation, such as alum and PACL, with input data consisting of turbidity, pH, alkalinity, conductivity, and, oxygen consumption (OC) of the Bangkhen Water Treatment Plant (BKWTP), under the authority of the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority of Thailand. The data were collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 in order to cover the changing seasons of Thailand. The input data of ANN are divided into three groups: training set, test set, and validation set. The coefficient of determination and the mean absolute errors of the alum model are 0.73, 3.18 and the PACL model are 0.59, 3.21, respectively.

Keywords: Soft jar test, jar test, water treatment plant process, artificial neural network.

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Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: Stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies a simple and powerful nonlinear unit root test to test the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP)  in a sample of 10 East-Asian countries (i.e., China, Hong Kong,  Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan  and Thailand) over the period of March 1985 to September 2008. The empirical results indicate that PPP holds true for half of these 10  East-Asian countries under study, and the adjustment toward PPP is found to be nonlinear and in an asymmetric way. 

 

Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity, East-Asian Countries, Nonlinear Unit Root Test, Asymmetry.

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Authors: Ying-Hsiu Chen, Pao-Peng Hsu

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This paper adopts a two-stage data envelopment analysis to explore the impacts of financial development and bank operating scale on bank efficiencies. The sample comprises unbalanced panel data of 32 Taiwanese listed domestic commercial banks over the period 1998 to 2013. Empirical results show that pure technical efficiency is positively related to financial development, whereas the effect of financial development on scale efficiency is insignificant. Enlargement of bank operating scale improves bank efficiencies, but the efficiency gains are decreased gradually when the scale increases. Increases in capital adequacy ratio and market power of loans lead into a growth of bank efficiencies.

Keywords: Financial development, Operating scale, Efficiency, DEA.

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Authors: José Luis Oslinger, Luis Carlos Castro

Abstract:

Measurements of capacitance C and dissipation factor tand of the stator insulation system provide useful information about internal defects within the insulation. The index k is defined as the proportionality constant between the changes at high voltage of capacitance DC and of the dissipation factor Dtand . DC and Dtand values were highly correlated when small flat defects were within the insulation and that correlation was lost in the presence of large narrow defects like electrical treeing. The discrimination between small and large defects is made resorting to partial discharge PD phase angle analysis. For the validation of the results, C and tand measurements were carried out in a 15MVA 4160V steam turbine turbogenerator placed in a sugar mill. In addition, laboratory test results obtained by other authors were analyzed jointly. In such laboratory tests, model coil bars subjected to thermal cycling resulted highly degraded and DC and Dtand values were not correlated. Thus, the index k could not be calculated.

Keywords: Aging, capacitance, dissipation factor, electrical treeing, insulation condition, partial discharge.

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Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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Authors: S. Mehrab Amiri, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

Abstract:

Modeling sediment transport processes by means of numerical approach often poses severe challenges. In this way, a number of techniques have been suggested to solve flow and sediment equations in decoupled, semi-coupled or fully coupled forms. Furthermore, in order to capture flow discontinuities, a number of techniques, like artificial viscosity and shock fitting, have been proposed for solving these equations which are mostly required careful calibration processes. In this research, a numerical scheme for solving shallow water and Exner equations in fully coupled form is presented. First-Order Centered scheme is applied for producing required numerical fluxes and the reconstruction process is carried out toward using Monotonic Upstream Scheme for Conservation Laws to achieve a high order scheme.  In order to satisfy C-property of the scheme in presence of bed topography, Surface Gradient Method is proposed. Combining the presented scheme with fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm for time integration yields a competent numerical scheme. In addition, to handle non-prismatic channels problems, Cartesian Cut Cell Method is employed. A trained Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network which is of Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) type estimates sediment flow discharge in the model rather than usual empirical formulas. Hydrodynamic part of the model is tested for showing its capability in simulation of flow discontinuities, transcritical flows, wetting/drying conditions and non-prismatic channel flows. In this end, dam-break flow onto a locally non-prismatic converging-diverging channel with initially dry bed conditions is modeled. The morphodynamic part of the model is verified simulating dam break on a dry movable bed and bed level variations in an alluvial junction. The results show that the model is capable in capturing the flow discontinuities, solving wetting/drying problems even in non-prismatic channels and presenting proper results for movable bed situations. It can also be deducted that applying Artificial Neural Network, instead of common empirical formulas for estimating sediment flow discharge, leads to more accurate results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, morphodynamic model, sediment continuity equation, shallow water equations.

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Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: Agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking.

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Authors: L. Dagilienė

Abstract:

The article explores the impact of normative institutional factors on the development of sustainability reporting. The vast majority of research in the scientific literature focuses on mandatory institutional factors, i.e. how public institutions and market regulators affect sustainability reporting. Meanwhile, there is lack of empirical data for the impact of normative institutional factors. The effect of normative factors in this paper is based on the role of non-governmental organizations (NGO) and institutional theory. The case of Global Compact Local Network in the developing country was examined. The research results revealed that in the absence of regulated factors, companies were not active with regard to social disclosures; they presented non-systemized social information of a descriptive nature. Only 10% of sustainability reports were prepared using the GRI methodology. None of the reports were assured by third parties.

Keywords: Institutional theory, normative, sustainability reporting.

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Authors: Sami Mutair, Yasuyuki Ikegami

Abstract:

This paper reports on the results of experimental investigations of flash evaporation from superheated jet issues vertically upward from a round straight nozzle of 81.3 mm diameter. For the investigated range of jet superheat degree and velocity, it was shown that flash evaporation enhances with initial temperature increase. Due to the increase of jet inertia and subsequently the delay of jet shattering, increase of jet velocity was found to result in increase of evaporation "delay period". An empirical equation predicts the jet evaporation completion height was developed, this equation is thought to be useful in designing the flash evaporation chamber. In attempts for enhancement of flash evaporation, use of steel wire mesh located at short distance downstream was found effective with no consequent pressure drop.

Keywords: Enhancement; Flash Evaporation; OTEC; superheated jet

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Authors: Gyula Fülöp, Bettina Hernádi

Abstract:

This paper deals with current strategic challenges related to the reshaping of the basic conditions of corporate operations. Through the experimental analysis of some domestic corporations, it presents how and to what extent Hungarian corporations are prepared for the current strategic challenges. The study examines how strategic directions and answer opportunities have changed in the following interrelated areas in the past five years: economic globalization, corporate sustainability, IT applications, labor force diversity and ethical competences. The conclusions of the empirical survey give a reliable basis on which economic organizations and enterprises can formulate their strategy.

Keywords: Economic globalization, corporate sustainability, IT applications, labor force diversity, ethical competences.

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