Search results for: systems safety analysis.

Authors: Leslie J.C.Bluck, Sarah J.Jackson, Georgios Vlasakakis, Adrian Mander

Abstract:

The use of a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to interpret breath measurements obtained during a 13C Octanoic Breath Test (13COBT) is demonstrated. The statistical analysis was implemented using WinBUGS, a commercially available computer package for Bayesian inference. A hierarchical setting was adopted where poorly defined parameters associated with a delayed Gastric Emptying (GE) were able to "borrow" strength from global distributions. This is proved to be a sufficient tool to correct model's failures and data inconsistencies apparent in conventional analyses employing a Non-linear least squares technique (NLS). Direct comparison of two parameters describing gastric emptying ng ( tlag -lag phase, t1/ 2 -half emptying time) revealed a strong correlation between the two methods. Despite our large dataset ( n = 164 ), Bayesian modeling was fast and provided a successful fitting for all subjects. On the contrary, NLS failed to return acceptable estimates in cases where GE was delayed.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical analysis, 13COBT, Gastricemptying, WinBUGS.

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Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

Abstract:

With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: Traffic App, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables.

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Authors: Guo Yanru, Zhu Xiaobo, Lee Chu Keong

Abstract:

This paper maps the structure of the social network of the 2011 class ofsixty graduate students of the Masters of Science (Knowledge Management) programme at the Nanyang Technological University, based on their friending relationships on Facebook. To ensure anonymity, actual names were not used. Instead, they were replaced with codes constructed from their gender, nationality, mode of study, year of enrollment and a unique number. The relationships between friends within the class, and among the seniors and alumni of the programme wereplotted. UCINet and Pajek were used to plot the sociogram, to compute the density, inclusivity, and degree, global, betweenness, and Bonacich centralities, to partition the students into two groups, namely, active and peripheral, and to identify the cut-points. Homophily was investigated, and it was observed for nationality and study mode. The groups students formed on Facebook were also studied, and of fifteen groups, eight were classified as dead, which we defined as those that have been inactive for over two months.

Keywords: Facebook, friending relationships, Social network analysis, social network sites, structural position

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Authors: Jyoti Dua

Abstract:

An algorithm is a well-defined procedure that takes some input in the form of some values, processes them and gives the desired output. It forms the basis of many other algorithms such as searching, pattern matching, digital filters etc., and other applications have been found in database systems, data statistics and processing, data communications and pattern matching. This paper introduces algorithmic “Enhanced Bidirectional Selection” sort which is bidirectional, stable. It is said to be bidirectional as it selects two values smallest from the front and largest from the rear and assigns them to their appropriate locations thus reducing the number of passes by half the total number of elements as compared to selection sort.

Keywords: Bubble sort, cocktail sort, selection sort, heap sort.

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Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

Abstract:

The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: Disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switch.

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Authors: A. Natsir, M. Nadir, S. Syahrir, A. Mujnisa, N. Purnomo, A. R. Egan, B. J. Leury

Abstract:

Rumen degradation characteristic of feedstuff is one of the prominent factors affecting microbial population in rumen of animal. High rumen degradation rate of faba bean protein may lead to inconstant rumen conditions that could have a prominent impact on rumen microbial diversity. Amplified Ribosomal DNA Restriction Analysis (ARDRA) is utilized to monitor diversity of rumen microbes on sheep fed low quality forage supplemented by faba beans. Four mature merino sheep with existing rumen cannula were used in this study according to 4 x 4 Latin square design. The results of study indicated that there were 37 different ARDRA types identified out of 136 clones examined. Among those clones, five main clone types existed across the treatments with different percentages. In conclusion, the ARDRA method is potential to be used as a routine tool to assess the temporary changes in the rumen community as a result of different feeding strategies.

Keywords: ARDRA method, clones, microbial diversity, ribotypes, ruminants.

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Authors: Cristian P. Topa, Esteban A. Valencia, Victor H. Hidalgo, Marco A. Martinez

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Wind tunnel experiments for aerodynamic profiles display numerous advantages, such as: clean steady laminar flow, controlled environmental conditions, streamlines visualization, and real data acquisition. However, the experiment instrumentation usually is expensive, and hence, each test implies a incremented in design cost. The aim of this work is to select and implement a low-cost static pressure data acquisition system for a NACA 2412 airfoil in an open cycle wind tunnel. This work compares wind tunnel experiment with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation and parametric analysis. The experiment was evaluated at Reynolds of 1.65 e⁵, with increasing angles from -5° to 15°. The comparison between the approaches show good enough accuracy, between the experiment and CFD, additional parametric analysis results differ widely from the other methods, which complies with the lack of accuracy of the lateral approach due its simplicity.

Keywords: Wind tunnel, low cost instrumentation, experimental testing, CFD simulation.

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, the power system has been changed and a flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system works simply in the household sector and the owner as the decision-maker, can benefit from power saving. On the other hand, the execution of demand response in the office building is more complex than in the household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in the decision-making process. While the owners benefit from demand saving, the occupants are exposed to restricted benefits of a demand-saved environment. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually under centralized management and each occupant cannot choose freely whether to participate in demand response or not. In addition, it is unclear whether incentives give occupants the motivation to participate. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of the office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature individually. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of whether or not to participate in demand response in the office building. This study investigates personal responses to demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their desk-lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared among four groups, which are divided by different motivation, the presence, or absence of incentives and the method of participation. The result shows that there are significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The method of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. The “Opt-out” groups where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they do not express non-participation have the highest participation rate in the four groups. Incentives also have an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports on the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective fatigue symptoms of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: Demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiograph.

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Authors: T. C. Manjunath, C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper deals with the design and the implementation of an automatic task planner for a robot, irrespective of whether it is a stationary robot or a mobile robot. The aim of the task planner nothing but, they are planning systems which are used to plan a particular task and do the robotic manipulation. This planning system is embedded into the system software in the computer, which is interfaced to the computer. When the instructions are given using the computer, this is transformed into real time application using the robot. All the AI based algorithms are written and saved in the control software, which acts as the intelligent task planning system.

Keywords: AI, Robot, Task Planner, RT, Algorithm, Specs, Controller.

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Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A.K.M. P. Iqbal, M. Ariffin, M. Mazian

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This work describes the aerodynamic characteristic for aircraft wing model with and without bird feather like winglet. The aerofoil used to construct the whole structure is NACA 653-218 Rectangular wing and this aerofoil has been used to compare the result with previous research using winglet. The model of the rectangular wing with bird feather like winglet has been fabricated using polystyrene before design using CATIA P3 V5R13 software and finally fabricated in wood. The experimental analysis for the aerodynamic characteristic for rectangular wing without winglet, wing with horizontal winglet and wing with 60 degree inclination winglet for Reynolds number 1.66×105, 2.08×105 and 2.50×105 have been carried out in open loop low speed wind tunnel at the Aerodynamics laboratory in Universiti Putra Malaysia. The experimental result shows 25-30 % reduction in drag coefficient and 10-20 % increase in lift coefficient by using bird feather like winglet for angle of attack of 8 degree.

Keywords: Aerofoil, Wind tunnel, Winglet, Drag Coefficient.

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Authors: Parisa Shirzadeh

Abstract:

Drug delivery systems in which drugs are traditionally used, multi-stage and at specified intervals by patients, do not meet the needs of the world's up-to-date drug delivery. In today's world, we are dealing with a huge number of recombinant peptide and protean drugs and analogues of hormones in the body, most of which are made with genetic engineering techniques. Most of these drugs are used to treat critical diseases such as cancer. Due to the limitations of the traditional method, researchers sought to find ways to solve the problems of the traditional method to a large extent. Following these efforts, controlled drug release systems were introduced, which have many advantages. Using controlled release of the drug in the body, the concentration of the drug is kept at a certain level, and in a short time, it is done at a higher rate. Graphene is a natural material that is biodegradable, non-toxic, natural and wide surfaces of graphene plates makes it more effective to modify graphene than carbon nanotubes. Graphene oxide is often synthesized using concentrated oxidizers such as sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and potassium permanganate based on Hummer method. graphene oxide is very hydrophilic and easily dissolves in water and creates a stable solution. Graphene oxide (GO) has been modified by chitosan (CS) covalently, developed for control release of doxorubicin (DOX). In this study, GO is produced by the hummer method under acidic conditions. Then, it is chlorinated by oxalyl chloride to increase its reactivity against amine. After that, in the presence of CS, the amino reaction was performed to form amide transplantation, and the DOX was connected to the carrier surface by π-π interaction in buffer phosphate. GO, GO-CS, and GO-CS-DOX were characterized by FT-IR and TGA to recognize new functional groups which show the new bonding of CS to GO, RAMA and SEM to recognize size of layers that show changing in size and number of layers. The ability to load and release is determined by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The loading result showed a high capacity of DOX absorption (99%) and pH dependence identified as a result of DOX release from GO-CS nanosheet at pH 5.3 and 7.4, which show a fast release rate in acidic conditions.

Keywords: Graphene oxide, chitosan, nanosheet, controlled drug release, doxorubicin.

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Authors: Yang-Keun Ahn, Kwang-Soon Choi, Young-Choong Park, Kwang-Mo Jung

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This paper proposes a method to recognize the tip of a finger and space touch hand gesture using an infrared camera in a smart device environment. The proposed method estimates the tip of a finger with a curvature-based ellipse fitting algorithm, and verifies that the estimated object is indeed a finger with an ellipse fitting rectangular area. The feature extracted from the verified finger tip is used to implement the movement of a mouse and clicking gesture. The proposed algorithm was implemented with an actual smart device to test the proposed method. Empirical parameters were obtained from the keypad software and an image analysis tool for the performance optimization, and a comparative analysis with conventional research showed improved performance with the proposed method.

Keywords: Infrared camera, Hand gesture, Smart device, Space touch.

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Authors: Jeffrey L. Duffany

Abstract:

An optimal solution for a large number of constraint satisfaction problems can be found using the technique of substitution and elimination of variables analogous to the technique that is used to solve systems of equations. A decision function f(A)=max(A2) is used to determine which variables to eliminate. The algorithm can be expressed in six lines and is remarkable in both its simplicity and its ability to find an optimal solution. However it is inefficient in that it needs to square the updated A matrix after each variable elimination. To overcome this inefficiency the algorithm is analyzed and it is shown that the A matrix only needs to be squared once at the first step of the algorithm and then incrementally updated for subsequent steps, resulting in significant improvement and an algorithm complexity of O(n3).

Keywords: Algorithm, complexity, constraint, np-complete.

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Authors: Batel Noureddine, Mehenni Mohamed, Dekar Lies

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In biomedical implant field, a new formula is given for the study of Radio Frequency power attenuation by simultaneous effects of side and angular misalignment of the supply/data transfer coils. A confrontation with the practical measurements done into a Faraday cage, allowed a checking of the obtained theoretical results. The DC supply systems without material connection and the data transmitters used in the case of biomedical implants, can be well dimensioned by taking into account the possibility of power attenuation by misalignment of transfer coils

Keywords: Biomedical implant field, misalignment coils, powerattenuation, transmitter and receiver coils.

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Authors: A. Ehsani, A. Karimizadeh, H. Fallahi, A. Jalali

Abstract:

In an electric power system, spinning reserve requirements can be determined by using deterministic and/or probabilistic measures. Although deterministic methods are usual in many systems, application of probabilistic methods becomes increasingly important in the new environment of the electric power utility industry. This is because of the increased uncertainty associated with competition. In this paper 1) a new probabilistic method is presented which considers the reliability of transmission system in a simplified manner and 2) deterministic and probabilistic methods are compared. The studied methods are applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS).

Keywords: Reliability, Spinning Reserve, Risk, Transmission, Unit Commitment.

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Authors: A. Armin, R. Fotouhi, W. Szyszkowski

Abstract:

In this paper a 3-D finite element (FE) investigation of soil-blade interaction is described. The effects of blade’s shape and rake angle are examined both numerically and experimentally. The soil is considered as an elastic-plastic granular material with non-associated Drucker-Prager material model. Contact elements with different properties are used to mimic soil-blade sliding and soil-soil cutting phenomena. A separation criterion is presented and a procedure to evaluate the forces acting on the blade is given and discussed in detail. Experimental results were derived from tests using soil bin facility and instruments at the University of Saskatchewan. During motion of the blade, load cells collect data and send them to a computer. The measured forces using load cells had noisy signals which are needed to be filtered. The FE results are compared with experimental results for verification. This technique can be used in blade shape optimization and design of more complicated blade’s shape.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, soil-blade contact modeling, blade force, experimental results.

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Authors: I. Algul, G. Akgun, H. Kurtaran

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Dynamic analysis of composite doubly curved panels with variable thickness subjected to different pulse types using Generalized Differential Quadrature method (GDQ) is presented in this study. Panels with variable thickness are used in the construction of aerospace and marine industry. Giving variable thickness to panels can allow the designer to get optimum structural efficiency. For this reason, estimating the response of variable thickness panels is very important to design more reliable structures under dynamic loads. Dynamic equations for composite panels with variable thickness are obtained using virtual work principle. Partial derivatives in the equation of motion are expressed with GDQ and Newmark average acceleration scheme is used for temporal discretization. Several examples are used to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results are compared with finite element method. Effects of taper ratios, boundary conditions and loading type on the response of composite panel are investigated.

Keywords: Generalized differential quadrature method, doubly curved panels, laminated composite materials, small displacement.

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Authors: Ahmed Mohammed Youssef Mohammed, Mohammad Reza Okhovat, Koichi Maekawa

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Small-scale RC models of both piles and tunnel ducts were produced as mockups of reality and loaded under soil confinement conditionsto investigate the damage evolution of structural RC interacting with soil. Experimental verifications usinga 3D nonlinear FE analysis program called COM3D, which was developed at the University of Tokyo, are introduced. This analysis has been used in practice for seismic performance assessment of underground ducts and in-ground LNG storage tanks in consideration of soil-structure interactionunder static and dynamic loading. Varying modes of failure of RCpilessubjected to different magnitudes of soil confinement were successfully reproduced in the proposed small-scale experiments and numerically simulated as well. Analytical simulation was applied to RC tunnel mockups under a wide variety of depth and soil confinement conditions, and reasonable matching was confirmed.

Keywords: Soil-Structure Interaction, RC pile, RC Tunnel

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Authors: Hamioud Saida, Khalfallah Salah

Abstract:

In this study, a spectral element method (SEM) is employed to predict the free vibration of a Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on a Winkler foundation with elastically restrained ends. The formulation of the dynamic stiffness matrix has been established by solving the differential equation of motion which was transformed to frequency domain. Non-dimensional natural frequencies and shape modes are obtained by solving the partial differential equations, numerically. Numerical comparisons and examples are performed to show the effectiveness of the SEM and to investigate the effects of various parameters, such as the springs at the boundaries and the elastic foundation parameter on the vibration frequencies. The obtained results demonstrate that the present method can also be applied to solve the more general problem of the dynamic analysis of structures with higher order precision.

Keywords: Elastically supported Euler-Bernoulli beam, free-vibration, spectral element method, Winkler foundation.

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Authors: N. Dahbi, D-E. Arafah

Abstract:

Cd_1−xZn_xS thins films have been fabricated from ZnS/CdS/ZnS multilayer thin film systems, by using the vacuum deposition method; the Rutherford backscattering (RBS) technique have been applied in order to determine the: structure, composition, depth profile, and stoichiometric of these films. The influence of the chemical and heat treatments on the produced films also have been investigated; the RBS spectra of the films showed that homogenous Cd_1−xZn_xS can be synthesized with x=0.45.

Keywords: Cd1−xZnxS, chemical treatment, depth profile, heat treatment, RBS, RUMP simulation, thin film, vacuum deposition, ZnS/CdS/ZnS.

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Authors: Mohammed W. Abdulrahman

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In the thermochemical water splitting process by Cu-Cl cycle, oxygen gas is produced by an endothermic thermolysis process at a temperature of 530^oC. Oxygen production reactor is a three-phase reactor involving cuprous chloride molten salt, copper oxychloride solid reactant and oxygen gas. To perform optimal performance, the oxygen reactor requires accurate control of heat transfer to the molten salt and decomposing solid particles within the thermolysis reactor. In this paper, the scale up analysis of the oxygen reactor that is heated by an internal helical tube is performed from the perspective of heat transfer. A heat balance of the oxygen reactor is investigated to analyze the size of the reactor that provides the required heat input for different rates of hydrogen production. It is found that the helical tube wall and the service side constitute the largest thermal resistances of the oxygen reactor system. In the analysis of this paper, the Cu-Cl cycle is assumed to be heated by two types of nuclear reactor, which are HTGR and CANDU SCWR. It is concluded that using CANDU SCWR requires more heat transfer rate by 3-4 times than that when using HTGR. The effect of the reactor aspect ratio is also studied and it is found that increasing the aspect ratio decreases the number of reactors and the rate of decrease in the number of reactors decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. Comparisons between the results of this study and pervious results of material balances in the oxygen reactor show that the size of the oxygen reactor is dominated by the heat balance rather than the material balance.

Keywords: Heat transfer, Cu-Cl cycle, hydrogen production, oxygen, clean energy.

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Authors: B.A.Gobin, R.K.Subramanian

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This paper gives an overview of the mapping mechanism of SEAM-a methodology for the automatic generation of knowledge models and its mapping onto Java codes. It discusses the rules that will be used to map the different components in the knowledge model automatically onto Java classes, properties and methods. The aim of developing this mechanism is to help in the creation of a prototype which will be used to validate the knowledge model which has been generated automatically. It will also help to link the modeling phase with the implementation phase as existing knowledge engineering methodologies do not provide for proper guidelines for the transition from the knowledge modeling phase to development phase. This will decrease the development overheads associated to the development of Knowledge Based Systems.

Keywords: KBS, OWL, ontology, knowledge models

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Authors: Anas M. Fares

Abstract:

The lateral stiffness of buildings is one of the most important properties which define resistance to displacements under lateral loads. Moreover, it has a great impact on the natural period of the structures. Different stiffness’s values can ultimately affect the behavior of the structure under the seismic load and the lateral forces that will be applied to it. In this study the effect of cracking is studied on 2D shell thin cantilever shear wall by using ETABS. Multi linear elastic analysis is conducted with the ACI stiffness modifiers for each analysis step. The results showed that the cracks affect the value of the drift especially at the top of the high rise buildings and this will change the lateral stiffness and so change the fundamental period of the structures which lead to change in the applied shear force that comes from the earthquake. Finally, this study emphasizes that the finite element method can be considered as a good tool to predict the tensile stresses in the elements.

Keywords: Lateral loads, lateral displacement, reinforced concrete, shear wall, Cracks, ETABS, ACI code, stiffness.

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Authors: Rebecca Angeles

Abstract:

This qualitative case study seeks to understand and explain the deployment of radio frequency identification (RFID) systems in two countries (i.e., in Taiwan for the adoption of electric scooters and in Finland for supporting glass bottle recycling) using the “Technology-Organization-Environment” theoretical framework. This study also seeks to highlight the relevance and importance of pursuing environmental sustainability in firms and in society in general due to the social urgency of the issues involved.

Keywords: Environmental sustainability, radio frequency identification, technology-organization-environment framework

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Authors: Oana Pop, Constantin Barbulescu, Mircea Nemes, Stefan Kilyeni

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The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. The methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer. The operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. Most tracing methods are based on the proportional sharing principle. In this paper Kirschen method is used. In order to illustrate this method, the 25- bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, tracing methods.

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Authors: Maatoug Hassine, Mourad Hrizi

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In this paper, we consider a geometric inverse source problem for the heat equation with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary data. We will reconstruct the exact form of the unknown source term from additional boundary conditions. Our motivation is to detect the location, the size and the shape of source support. We present a one-shot algorithm based on the Kohn-Vogelius formulation and the topological gradient method. The geometric inverse source problem is formulated as a topology optimization one. A topological sensitivity analysis is derived from a source function. Then, we present a non-iterative numerical method for the geometric reconstruction of the source term with unknown support using a level curve of the topological gradient. Finally, we give several examples to show the viability of our presented method.

Keywords: Geometric inverse source problem, heat equation, topological sensitivity, topological optimization, Kohn-Vogelius formulation.

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Authors: Sung Jun Ban, Hyeonwoo Cho, ChangWoo Lee, Sang Woo Kim

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A packet analyzer is a tool for debugging sensor network systems and is convenient for developers. In this paper, we introduce a new packet analyzer based on an embedded system. The proposed packet analyzer is compatible with IEEE 802.15.4, which is suitable for the wireless communication standard for sensor networks, and is available for remote control by adopting a server-client scheme based on the Ethernet interface. To confirm the operations of the packet analyzer, we have developed two types of sensor nodes based on PIC4620 and ATmega128L microprocessors and tested the functions of the proposed packet analyzer by obtaining the packets from the sensor nodes.

Keywords: Sensor network, embedded system, packet analyzer.

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Authors: Yunus Doğan, Ahmet Durap

Abstract:

Coastal regions are the one of the most commonly used places by the natural balance and the growing population. In coastal engineering, the most valuable data is wave behaviors. The amount of this data becomes very big because of observations that take place for periods of hours, days and months. In this study, some statistical methods such as the wave spectrum analysis methods and the standard statistical methods have been used. The goal of this study is the discovery profiles of the different coast areas by using these statistical methods, and thus, obtaining an instance based data set from the big data to analysis by using data mining algorithms. In the experimental studies, the six sample data sets about the wave behaviors obtained by 20 minutes of observations from Mersin Bay in Turkey and converted to an instance based form, while different clustering techniques in data mining algorithms were used to discover similar coastal places. Moreover, this study discusses that this summarization approach can be used in other branches collecting big data such as medicine.

Keywords: Clustering algorithms, coastal engineering, data mining, data summarization, statistical methods.

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Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

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The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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Authors: Fang Yao, Minglei Chen

Abstract:

City shrinkage is one of the thorny problems that many European cities have to face with nowadays. It is mainly expressed as the decrease of population in these cities. Eastern Germany is one of the pioneers of European shrinking cities with long shrinking history. The paper selects one representative shrinking city Halle (Saale) in eastern Germany as research objective, collecting and investigating nearly 20 years (1993-2010) municipal data after the reunification of Germany. These data based on five dimensions, which are demographic, economic, social, spatial and environmental and total 16 eligible variables. Factor Analysis is used to deal with these variables in order to assess the most important factors affecting shrinking Halle. The results show that there are three main factors determine the shrinkage of Halle, respectively named “demographical and economical factor”, “social stability factor”, and “city vitality factor”. The three factors act at different time period of Halle’s shrinkage: from 1993 to 1997 the demographical and economical factor played an important role; from 1997 to 2004 the social stability factor is significant to city shrinkage; since 2005 city vitality factor determines the shrinkage of Halle. In recent years, the shrinkage in Halle mitigates that shows the sign of growing population. Thus the city Halle should focus on attaching more importance on the city vitality factor to prevent the city from shrinkage. Meanwhile, the city should possess a positive perspective to shift the growth-oriented development to tap the potential of shrinking cities. This method is expected to apply to further research and other shrinking cities

Keywords: Demography, Factor analysis, Halle, Shrinking cities.

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