Search results for: environmental impact and risk assessment.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5176

Search results for: environmental impact and risk assessment.

4726 A Support System to Consult Remote another Doctor on Assessment and/or Medical Treatment Plan when a Doctor has a Patient not in His/Her Major

Authors: T. Gotoh, T. Takayama, M. Ishiki, T. Ikeda

Abstract:

Recently, majors of doctors are divided into terribly lots of detailed areas. However, it is actually not a rare case that a doctor has a patient who is not in his/her major. He/She must judge an assessment and make a medical treatment plan for this patient. According to our investigation, conventional approaches such as image diagnosis cooperation are insufficient. This paper proposes an 'Assessment / Medical Treatment Plan Consulting System'. We have implemented a pilot system based on our proposition. Its effectiveness is clarified by an evaluation.

Keywords: Application, computational intelligence and telecommunications, medicine, intelligent systems.

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4725 Risk-Management by Numerical Pattern Analysis in Data-Mining

Authors: M. Kargar, R. Mirmiran, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

Abstract:

In this paper a new method is suggested for risk management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best planning for special objectives be done.

Keywords: Analysis, Data-mining, Pattern, Risk Management.

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4724 The Effect of Ageing on Impact Toughness and Microstructure of 2024 Al-Cu-Mg Alloy

Authors: Swami Naidu Gurugubelli

Abstract:

The present study aims at determining the effect of ageing on the impact toughness and microstructure of 2024 Al-Cu - Mg alloy. Following the 2 h solutionizing treatment at 450°C and water quench, the specimens were aged at 200°C for various periods (1 to 18 h). The precipitation stages during ageing were monitored by hardness measurements. For each specimen group, Charpy impact and hardness tests were carried out. During ageing the impact toughness of the alloy first increased, and then, following a maxima decreased due to the precipitation of intermediate phases, finally it reached its minimum at the peak hardness. Correlations between hardness and impact toughness were investigated.

Keywords: Ageing, alloy, hardness, microstructure.

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4723 Fe, Pb, Mn, and Cd Concentrations in Edible Mushrooms (Agaricus campestris) Grown in Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Authors: N. O. Omaka, I. F. Offor, R.C. Ehiri

Abstract:

The health and environmental risk of eating mushrooms grown in Abakaliki were evaluated in terms of heavy metals accumulation. Mushroom samples were collected from four different farms located at Izzi, Amajim, Amana and Amudo and analyzed for (iron, lead, manganese and cadmium) using Bulk Scientific Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer 205. Results indicates mean range of concentrations of the trace metals in the mushrooms were Fe (0.22-152. 03), Mn (0.74-9.76), Pb (0.01.0.80), Cd (0.61-0.82) mg/L respectively. Accumulation of Cd on the four locations under investigation was higher than the UK Government Food Science Surveillance and World Health Organization maximum recommended levels in mushroom for human consumption. The Fe and Mn contaminants of Amudo were significant and show the impact of anthropogenic/atmospheric pollution. The potential sources of the heavy metals in the mushrooms were from urban waste, dust from mining and quarrying activities, natural geochemistry of the area, and use of inorganic fertilizers

Keywords: Agaricus campestris, edible, health implication heavy metal, mushroom.

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4722 Suitability of Black Box Approaches for the Reliability Assessment of Component-Based Software

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: Black Box, faults, failure, software reliability.

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4721 Study on Various Measures for Flood in Specific Region: A Case Study of the 2008 Lao Flood

Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

Abstract:

In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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4720 The Creation of Sustainable Architecture by use of Transformable Intelligent Building Skins

Authors: Maziar Asefi

Abstract:

Built environments have a large impact on environmental sustainability and if it is not considered properly can negatively affect our planet. The application of transformable intelligent building systems that automatically respond to environmental conditions is one of the best ways that can intelligently assist us to create sustainable environment. The significance of this issue is evident as energy crisis and environmental changes has made the sustainability the main concerns in many societies. The aim of this research is to review and evaluate the importance and influence of transformable intelligent structure on the creation of sustainable architecture. Intelligent systems in current buildings provide convenience through automatically responding to changes in environmental conditions, reducing energy dissipation and increase of the lifecycle of buildings. This paper by analyzing significant intelligent building systems will evaluate the potentials of transformable intelligent systems in the creation of sustainable architecture and environment.

Keywords: Transformable, Sustainable architecture, Intelligent building system, Environment condition

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4719 South African MNEs Entry Strategies in Africa

Authors: N.M. Museisi

Abstract:

This is a cross-cultural study that determines South African multinational enterprises (MNEs) entry strategies as they invest in Africa. An integrated theoretical framework comprising the transaction cost theory, Uppsala model, eclectic paradigm and the distance framework was adopted. A sample of 40 South African MNEs with 415 existing FDI entries in Africa was drawn. Using an ordered logistic regression model, the impact of culture on the choice of degree of control by South African MNEs in Africa was determined. Cultural distance was one of significant factors that influenced South African MNEs- choice of degree of control. Furthermore, South African MNEs are risk averse in all countries in Africa but minimize the risks differently across sectors. Service sectors chooses to own their subsidiaries 100% and avoid dealing with the locals while manufacturing, resources and construction choose to have a local partner to share the risk.

Keywords: Cross-cultural, emerging MNEs, entry strategies, internationalization.

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4718 Cursive Handwriting in an Internet Age

Authors: Karen Armstrong

Abstract:

Recent concerns about the value of teaching cursive handwriting in the classroom are based on the belief that cursive handwriting or penmanship is an outdated and unnecessary skill in today’s online world. The discussion of this issue begins with a description of current initiatives to eliminate handwriting instruction in schools. This is followed by a brief history of cursive writing through the ages. Next considered is a description of its benefits as a preliminary process for younger children as compared with immediate instruction in keyboarding, particularly in the areas of vision, cognition, motor skills and automatic fluency. Also considered, is cursive’s companion, paper itself, and the impact of a paperless, “screen and keyboard” environment. The discussion concludes with a consideration of the unique contributions of cursive and keyboarding as written forms of communication, along with their respective surfaces, paper and screen. Finally, an assessment of the practical utility of each skill is followed by an informal assessment of what is lost and what remains as we move from a predominantly paper and pen world of handwriting to texting and keyboarding in an environment of screens.

Keywords: Asemic writing, cursive, handwriting, keyboarding, paper.

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4717 Applying GQM Approach towards Development of Criterion-Referenced Assessment Model for OO Programming Courses

Authors: Norazlina Khamis, Sufian Idris, Rodina Ahmad

Abstract:

The most influential programming paradigm today is object oriented (OO) programming and it is widely used in education and industry. Recognizing the importance of equipping students with OO knowledge and skills, it is not surprising that most Computer Science degree programs offer OO-related courses. How do we assess whether the students have acquired the right objectoriented skills after they have completed their OO courses? What are object oriented skills? Currently none of the current assessment techniques would be able to provide this answer. Traditional forms of OO programming assessment provide a ways for assigning numerical scores to determine letter grades. But this rarely reveals information about how students actually understand OO concept. It appears reasonable that a better understanding of how to define and assess OO skills is needed by developing a criterion referenced model. It is even critical in the context of Malaysia where there is currently a growing concern over the level of competency of Malaysian IT graduates in object oriented programming. This paper discussed the approach used to develop the criterion-referenced assessment model. The model can serve as a guideline when conducting OO programming assessment as mentioned. The proposed model is derived by using Goal Questions Metrics methodology, which helps formulate the metrics of interest. It concluded with a few suggestions for further study.

Keywords: Object-oriented programming, programmingassessment, criterion-referenced assessment model, goal questionsmetrics.

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4716 The Delaying Influence of Degradation on the Divestment of Gas Turbines for Associated Gas Utilisation: Part 1

Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

Abstract:

An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: Economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimisation.

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4715 Fuzzy Inference System for Determining Collision Risk of Ship in Madura Strait Using Automatic Identification System

Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

Abstract:

Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: Automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA.

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4714 The Classification Performance in Parametric and Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis for a Class- Unbalanced Data of Diabetes Risk Groups

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

Abstract:

The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: Bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, error rate, k-nearest neighbors.

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4713 Valorization of Residues from Forest Industry for the Generation of Energy

Authors: M. A. Amezcua-Allieri, E. Torres, J. A. Zermeño Eguía-Lis, M. Magdaleno, L. A. Melgarejo, E. Palmerín, A. Rosas, D. López, J. Aburto

Abstract:

The use of biomass to produce renewable energy is one of the forms that can be used to reduce the impact of energy production. Like any other energy resource, there are limitations for biomass use, and it must compete not only with fossil fuels but also with other renewable energy sources such as solar or wind energy. Combustion is currently the most efficient and widely used waste-to-energy process, in the areas where direct use of biomass is possible, without the need to make large transfers of raw material. Many industrial facilities can use agricultural or forestry waste, straw, chips, bagasse, etc. in their thermal systems without making major transformations or adjustments in the feeding to the ovens, making this waste an attractive and cost-effective option in terms of availability, access, and costs. In spite of the facilities and benefits, the environmental reasons (emission of gases and particulate material) are decisive for its use for energy purpose. This paper describes a valorization of residues from forest industry to generate energy, using a case study.

Keywords: Bioenergy, forest waste, life-cycle assessment, waste-to-energy, electricity.

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4712 Sociodemographic Risk Factors of Cervical Cancer in Imphal, Manipur

Authors: Arundhati Devi Maibam, K. Ingocha Singh

Abstract:

Cervical cancer is preventable if detected early. Determination of risk factors is essential to plan screening programmes to prevent the disease. To study the demographic risk factors of cervical cancer among Manipuri women, information on age, marital status, educational level, monthly family income and socioeconomic status were collected through a pre-tested interview schedule. In this study, 64 incident cases registered at the RT Dept, RIMS (Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), Imphal, Manipur, India during 2008-09 participated. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and the results were expressed in percentages. Among the 64 patients with cervical cancer, 56 (88.9%) were in the age group of 40+ years. The majority of the patients were from rural areas (68.75%) and 31.25% were from urban areas. The majority of the patients were Hindus (73%), 55(85.9%) were of low educational level, 43(67.2%) were married, and 36 (56.25%) belonged to Class IV socioeconomic status. In conclusion, if detected early, cervical cancer is preventable and curable. The potential risk factors need to be identified and women in the risk group need to be motivated for screening. Affordable screening programmes and health care resources will help in lessening the burden of the disease.

Keywords: Cervical cancer, Manipuri women, RIIMS, Socio-demographic risk factors.

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4711 Comparison of Conventional and “ECO“Transportation Pavements in Cyprus using Life Cycle Approach

Authors: Constantia Achilleos, Diofantos G. Hadjimitsis

Abstract:

Road industry has challenged the prospect of ecoconstruction. Pavements may fit within the framework of sustainable development. Hence, research implements assessments of conventional pavements impacts on environment in use of life cycle approach. To meet global, and often national, targets on pollution control, newly introduced pavement designs are under study. This is the case of Cyprus demonstration, which occurred within EcoLanes project work. This alternative pavement differs on concrete layer reinforced with tire recycling product. Processing of post-consumer tires produces steel fibers improving strength capacity against cracking. Thus maintenance works are relevantly limited in comparison to flexible pavement. This enables to be more ecofriendly, referenced to current study outputs. More specific, proposed concrete pavement life cycle processes emits 15 % less air pollutants and consumes 28 % less embodied energy than those of the asphalt pavement. In addition there is also a reduction on costs by 0.06 %.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment, life cycle, tirerecycling, transportation pavement.

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4710 The Impact of Product Package Information on Consumer Behavior toward Genetically Modified Foods

Authors: Yu-Syuan Chang, Li-Chun Huang

Abstract:

Genetically modified (GM) technology in food production continued to generate controversies. Consumers were concerned with the GM foods about the healthy and environmental risks. While consumers- acceptance was a critical factor affecting how widely this technology be used. According to the research review, consumers- lack of information was one of the reasons to explain consumers- low acceptance toward GM foods. The objective for this study wanted to find out would informative product package affect consumers- behavior toward GM foods. An experiment was designed to investigate consumer behavior toward different product package information. The results indicated that the product package information influenced consumer product trust toward GM foods. Compared with the traceability production system information, the information about the GM rice was approved by authorized organizations could increase consumers product trust in GM foods. Consumers in Taiwan saw the information provided by authorized organizations more credible than other information.

Keywords: product package information, genetically modifiedfood, consumer product trust, risk perception, benefit perception.

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4709 Artificial Neural Networks Technique for Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Seismic Bumps

Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Samira Chouraqui, Hanifi Missoum, Tourkia Guerzou

Abstract:

Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. Earthquake prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that, is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 104 J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines have been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN is able to predict earthquake parameters with  high accuracy; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: Earthquake prediction, artificial intelligence, AI, Artificial Neural Network, ANN, seismic bumps.

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4708 The Development of an Integrity Cultivating Module in School-Based Assessment among Malaysian Teachers: A Research Methodology

Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh Hj Abdullah, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor, Norazilawati Binti Abdullah, Rahimah Adam, Othman Bin Lebar

Abstract:

The competency and integrity required for better understanding and practice of School-based Assessment (PBS) comes not only from the process, but also in providing the support or ‘scaffolding’ for teachers to recognize the student as a learner, improve their self-assessment skills, understanding of the daily teaching plan and its constructive alignment of the curriculum, pedagogy and assessment. The cultivation of integrity in PBS among the teachers is geared towards encouraging them to become committed and dedicated in implementing assessments in a serious, efficient manner, thus moving away from the usual teacher-focused approach to the student-focused approach. The teachers show their integrity via their professional commitment, responsibility and actions. The module based on the cultivation of integrity in PBS among Malaysian teachers aims to broaden the guidance support for teachers (embedded in the training), which consists of various domains to enable better evaluation of complex assessment tasks and the construction of suitable instrument for measuring the relevant cognitive, affective and psychomotor domains to describe the students’ achievement. The instrument for integrity cultivation in PBS has been developed and validated for measuring the effectiveness of the module constructed. This module is targeted towards assisting the staff in the Education Ministry, especially the principal trainers, teachers, headmasters and education officers to acquire effective intervention for improving the PBS assessors’ integrity and competency.

Keywords: School-based assessment, Assessment competency Integrity cultivation, Professional commitment, Module.

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4707 Does Material Choice Drive Sustainability of 3D Printing?

Authors: Jeremy Faludi, Zhongyin Hu, Shahd Alrashed, Christopher Braunholz, Suneesh Kaul, Leulekal Kassaye

Abstract:

Environmental impacts of six 3D printers using various materials were compared to determine if material choice drove sustainability, or if other factors such as machine type, machine size, or machine utilization dominate. Cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessments were performed, comparing a commercial-scale FDM machine printing in ABS plastic, a desktop FDM machine printing in ABS, a desktop FDM machine printing in PET and PLA plastics, a polyjet machine printing in its proprietary polymer, an SLA machine printing in its polymer, and an inkjet machine hacked to print in salt and dextrose. All scenarios were scored using ReCiPe Endpoint H methodology to combine multiple impact categories, comparing environmental impacts per part made for several scenarios per machine. Results showed that most printers’ ecological impacts were dominated by electricity use, not materials, and the changes in electricity use due to different plastics was not significant compared to variation from one machine to another. Variation in machine idle time determined impacts per part most strongly. However, material impacts were quite important for the inkjet printer hacked to print in salt: In its optimal scenario, it had up to 1/38th the impacts coreper part as the worst-performing machine in the same scenario. If salt parts were infused with epoxy to make them more physically robust, then much of this advantage disappeared, and material impacts actually dominated or equaled electricity use. Future studies should also measure DMLS and SLS processes / materials.

Keywords: 3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Sustainability, Life-cycle assessment, Design for Environment.

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4706 Sway Reduction on Gantry Crane System using Delayed Feedback Signal and PD-type Fuzzy Logic Controller: A Comparative Assessment

Authors: M.A. Ahmad

Abstract:

This paper presents the use of anti-sway angle control approaches for a two-dimensional gantry crane with disturbances effect in the dynamic system. Delayed feedback signal (DFS) and proportional-derivative (PD)-type fuzzy logic controller are the techniques used in this investigation to actively control the sway angle of the rope of gantry crane system. A nonlinear overhead gantry crane system is considered and the dynamic model of the system is derived using the Euler-Lagrange formulation. A complete analysis of simulation results for each technique is presented in time domain and frequency domain respectively. Performances of both controllers are examined in terms of sway angle suppression and disturbances cancellation. Finally, a comparative assessment of the impact of each controller on the system performance is presented and discussed.

Keywords: Gantry crane, anti-sway control, DFS controller, PD-type Fuzzy Logic Controller.

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4705 Sub-Impact Phenomenon of Elasto-Plastic Free-Free Beam during a Strike

Authors: H. Rong, X. C. Yin, J. Yang, Y. N. Shen

Abstract:

Based on Rayleigh beam theory, the sub-impacts of a free-free beam struck horizontally by a round-nosed rigid mass is simulated by the finite difference method and the impact-separation conditions. In order to obtain the sub-impact force, a uniaxial compression elastic-plastic contact model is employed to analyze the local deformation field on contact zone. It is found that the horizontal impact is a complicated process including the elastic plastic sub-impacts in sequence. There are two sub-zones of sub-impact. In addition, it found that the elastic energy of the free-free beam is more suitable for the Poisson collision hypothesis to explain compression and recovery processes.

Keywords: beam, sub-impact, elastic-plastic deformation, finite difference method.

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4704 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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4703 Natural Disaster Impact on Annual Visitors of Recreation Area: The Taiwan Case

Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

This paper aims to quantify the impact of natural disaster on tourism by the change of annual visitors to scenic spots. The data of visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake, Sitou and Palace Museum in Taiwan during 1986 to 2012 year is collected, and the trend analysis is used to predict the annual visitors to these scenic spots. The findings show that 1999 Taiwan earthquake had significant effect on the visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake and Sitou with an average impact of 55.75% during 1999 to 2000 year except for Palace Museum. The impact was greater as closer epicenter of 1999 earthquake. And the discovery period of visitors is about 2 to 9 years. Further, the impact of heavy rainfall on Alishan, Taiwan is estimated. As the accumulative rainfall reaches to 500 mm, the impact on visitors can be predicted. 

Keywords: Impact, Natural disaster, tourism, visitors.

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4702 Impact of Increasing Distributed Solar PV Systems on Distribution Networks in South Africa

Authors: Aradhna Pandarum

Abstract:

South Africa is experiencing an exponential growth of distributed solar PV installations. This is due to various factors with the predominant one being increasing electricity tariffs along with decreasing installation costs, resulting in attractive business cases to some end-users. Despite there being a variety of economic and environmental advantages associated with the installation of PV, their potential impact on distribution grids has yet to be thoroughly investigated. This is especially true since the locations of these units cannot be controlled by Network Service Providers (NSPs) and their output power is stochastic and non-dispatchable. This report details two case studies that were completed to determine the possible voltage and technical losses impact of increasing PV penetration in the Northern Cape of South Africa. Some major impacts considered for the simulations were ramping of PV generation due to intermittency caused by moving clouds, the size and overall hosting capacity and the location of the systems. The main finding is that the technical impact is different on a constrained feeder vs a non-constrained feeder. The acceptable PV penetration level is much lower for a constrained feeder than a non-constrained feeder, depending on where the systems are located.

Keywords: Medium voltage networks, power system losses, power system voltage, solar photovoltaic, PV.

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4701 Aircraft Selection Using Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A multiple-criteria decision support system is proposed for the best aircraft selection decision. Various strategic, economic, environmental, and risk-related factors can directly or indirectly influence this choice, and they should be taken into account in the decision-making process. The paper suggests a multiple-criteria analysis to aid in the airline management's decision-making process when choosing an appropriate aircraft. In terms of the suggested approach, an integrated entropic preference optimization programming (POP) for fleet modeling risk analysis is applied. The findings of the study of multiple criteria analysis indicate that the A321(neo) aircraft type is the best alternative in this particular optimization instance. The proposed methodology can be applied to other complex engineering problems involving multiple criteria analysis.

Keywords: Aircraft selection, decision making, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, entropic weight method, TOPSIS, WSM, WPM

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4700 Risk and Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Real Estate

Authors: Tahmina Akhter

Abstract:

In the present work, we make a study of the repercussions of the pandemic generated by COVID-19 in the real estate market, this disease has affected almost all sectors of the economy across different countries in the world, including the real estate markets. This documentary research, basically focused on the years 2021 and 2022, as we seek to focus on the strongest time of the pandemic. We carried out the study trying to take into account the repercussions throughout the world and that is why the data we analyze take into account information from all possible continents. Particularly in the US, Europe and China, where the COVID-19 impact has been of such proportions that it has fundamentally affected the housing market for middle-class housing. In addition, the pandemic has posed risks to investments in this market, due to the fact that companies in the sector have generated losses in certain cases; in the Chinese case, Evergrande, one of the largest companies in the sector, fell into default.

Keywords: COVID-19, real estate market, statistics of COVID-19, Evergrande Real Estate.

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4699 Numerical and Experimental Assessment of a PCM Integrated Solar Chimney

Authors: J. Carlos Frutos Dordelly, M. Coillot, M. El Mankibi, R. Enríquez Miranda, M. José Jimenez, J. Arce Landa

Abstract:

Natural ventilation systems have increasingly been the subject of research due to rising energetic consumption within the building sector and increased environmental awareness. In the last two decades, the mounting concern of greenhouse gas emissions and the need for an efficient passive ventilation system have driven the development of new alternative passive technologies such as ventilated facades, trombe walls or solar chimneys. The objective of the study is the assessment of PCM panels in an in situ solar chimney for the establishment of a numerical model. The PCM integrated solar chimney shows slight performance improvement in terms of mass flow rate and external temperature and outlet temperature difference. An increase of 11.3659 m3/h can be observed during low wind speed periods. Additionally, the surface temperature across the chimney goes beyond 45 °C and allows the activation of PCM panels.

Keywords: Energy storage, passive ventilation, phase changing materials, solar chimney, solar energy.

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4698 Principles of Sustainable and Affordable Housing Policy for Afghan Refugees Returning to Afghanistan

Authors: Mohammad Saraj Sharifzai, Keisuke Kitagawa, Mohammad Kamil Halimee, Javid Habib, Daishi Sakaguchi

Abstract:

The overall goal of this paper is to examine the suitability and potential of the policies addressing the sustainability and affordability of housing for returnees, and to determine the impact of this policy on housing delivery for Afghan refugees. Housing is a central component of the settlement experience of refugees. A positive housing situation can facilitate many aspects of integration. Unaffordable, and unsafe housing, however, can cause disruptions in the entire settlement process. This paper aims to identify a suite of built forms for housing that is both affordable and environmentally sustainable for Afghan refugees. The result was the development of a framework that enables the assessment of the overall performance of various types of housing development in all zones of the country. There is very little evidence that the present approach of housing provision to the vagaries of market forces has provided affordable housing, especially for Afghan refugees. There is a need to incorporate social housing into the policy to assist people who cannot afford to have their own houses.

Keywords: Afghan refugees, housing policy, affordability, social housing, housing provision, environmental sustainability principles, resettlement.

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4697 Finite Element Analysis of Low-Velocity Impact Damage on Stiffened Composite Panels

Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

Abstract:

To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: Stiffened, Low-velocity, Impact, Abaqus, Impact Energy.

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