Search results for: Quasilinearization method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8092

Search results for: Quasilinearization method

7642 Conduction Accompanied With Transient Radiative Heat Transfer Using Finite Volume Method

Authors: A. Ashok, K.Satapathy, B. Prerana Nashine

Abstract:

The objective of this research work is to investigate for one dimensional transient radiative transfer equations with conduction using finite volume method. Within the infrastructure of finite-volume, we obtain the conservative discretization of the terms in order to preserve the overall conservative property of finitevolume schemes. Coupling of conductive and radiative equation resulting in fluxes is governed by the magnitude of emissivity, extinction coefficient, and temperature of the medium as well as geometry of the problem. The problem under consideration has been solved, for a slab dominating radiation coupled with transient conduction based on finite volume method. The boundary conditions are also chosen so as to give a good model of the discretized form of radiation transfer equation. The important feature of the present method is flexibility in specifying the control angles in the FVM, while keeping the simplicity in the solution procedure. Effects of various model parameters are examined on the distributions of temperature, radiative and conductive heat fluxes and incident radiation energy etc. The finite volume method is considered to effectively evaluate the propagation of radiation intensity through a participating medium.

Keywords: Radiative transfer equation, finite volume method, conduction, transient radiation.

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7641 Improvements in Edge Detection Based on Mathematical Morphology and Wavelet Transform using Fuzzy Rules

Authors: Masrour Dowlatabadi, Jalil Shirazi

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved edge detection algorithm based on fuzzy combination of mathematical morphology and wavelet transform is proposed. The combined method is proposed to overcome the limitation of wavelet based edge detection and mathematical morphology based edge detection in noisy images. Experimental results show superiority of the proposed method, as compared to the traditional Prewitt, wavelet based and morphology based edge detection methods. The proposed method is an effective edge detection method for noisy image and keeps clear and continuous edges.

Keywords: Edge detection, Wavelet transform, Mathematical morphology, Fuzzy logic.

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7640 A Kernel Based Rejection Method for Supervised Classification

Authors: Abdenour Bounsiar, Edith Grall, Pierre Beauseroy

Abstract:

In this paper we are interested in classification problems with a performance constraint on error probability. In such problems if the constraint cannot be satisfied, then a rejection option is introduced. For binary labelled classification, a number of SVM based methods with rejection option have been proposed over the past few years. All of these methods use two thresholds on the SVM output. However, in previous works, we have shown on synthetic data that using thresholds on the output of the optimal SVM may lead to poor results for classification tasks with performance constraint. In this paper a new method for supervised classification with rejection option is proposed. It consists in two different classifiers jointly optimized to minimize the rejection probability subject to a given constraint on error rate. This method uses a new kernel based linear learning machine that we have recently presented. This learning machine is characterized by its simplicity and high training speed which makes the simultaneous optimization of the two classifiers computationally reasonable. The proposed classification method with rejection option is compared to a SVM based rejection method proposed in recent literature. Experiments show the superiority of the proposed method.

Keywords: rejection, Chow's rule, error-reject tradeoff, SupportVector Machine.

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7639 The Comparison Study of Harmonic Detection Methods for Shunt Active Power Filters

Authors: K-L. Areerak, K-N. Areerak

Abstract:

The paper deals with the comparison study of harmonic detection methods for a shunt active power filter. The %THD and the power factor value at the PCC point after compensation are considered for the comparison. There are three harmonic detection methods used in the paper that are synchronous reference frame method, synchronous detection method, and DQ axis with Fourier method. In addition, the ideal current source is used to represent the active power filter by assuming an infinitely fast controller action of the active power filter. The simulation results show that the DQ axis with Fourier method provides the minimum %THD after compensation compared with other methods. However, the power factor value at the PCC point after compensation is slightly lower than that of synchronous detection method.

Keywords: Harmonic detection, shunt active power filter, DQaxis with Fourier, power factor.

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7638 Robust Face Recognition using AAM and Gabor Features

Authors: Sanghoon Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Souhwan Jung, Seoungseon Jeon, Jaemin Kim, Seongwon Cho

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a face recognition algorithm using AAM and Gabor features. Gabor feature vectors which are well known to be robust with respect to small variations of shape, scaling, rotation, distortion, illumination and poses in images are popularly employed for feature vectors for many object detection and recognition algorithms. EBGM, which is prominent among face recognition algorithms employing Gabor feature vectors, requires localization of facial feature points where Gabor feature vectors are extracted. However, localization method employed in EBGM is based on Gabor jet similarity and is sensitive to initial values. Wrong localization of facial feature points affects face recognition rate. AAM is known to be successfully applied to localization of facial feature points. In this paper, we devise a facial feature point localization method which first roughly estimate facial feature points using AAM and refine facial feature points using Gabor jet similarity-based facial feature localization method with initial points set by the rough facial feature points obtained from AAM, and propose a face recognition algorithm using the devised localization method for facial feature localization and Gabor feature vectors. It is observed through experiments that such a cascaded localization method based on both AAM and Gabor jet similarity is more robust than the localization method based on only Gabor jet similarity. Also, it is shown that the proposed face recognition algorithm using this devised localization method and Gabor feature vectors performs better than the conventional face recognition algorithm using Gabor jet similarity-based localization method and Gabor feature vectors like EBGM.

Keywords: Face Recognition, AAM, Gabor features, EBGM.

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7637 The Harada Method – A Method for Employee Development during Production Ramp Up

Authors: M. Goerke, J. Gehrmann

Abstract:

Caused by shorter product life cycles and higher product variety the importance of production ramp ups is increasing. Even though companies are aware of that fact, up to 40% of the ramp up projects still miss technical and economical requirements. The success of a ramp up depends on the planning of human factors, organizational aspects and technological solutions. Since only partly considered in scientific literature, this paper lays its focus on the human factor during production ramp up. There are only incoherent methods which address the problems in this area. A systematic and holistic method to improve the capabilities of the employees during ramp up is missing. The Harada Method is a relatively young approach for developing highly-skilled workers. It consists of different worksheets which help employees to set guidelines and reach overall objectives. This approach is going to be transferred into a tool for ramp up management.

Keywords: Employee Development, Harada, Production Ramp Up.

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7636 The Study on Evaluation System and Method of Legacy System

Authors: Chao Qi, Fuyang Peng, Bo Deng, Xiaoyan Su

Abstract:

In the upgrade process of enterprise information systems, how to deal with and utilize those legacy systems affects the efficiency of construction and development of the new system. We propose an evaluation system, which comprehensively describes the capacity of legacy information systems in five aspects. Then we propose a practical legacy systems evaluation method. Base on the evaluation result, we can determine the current state of legacy system which was evaluated.

Keywords: Legacy Information Systems, Evaluation IndexSystem, Evaluation Method, Evaluation Level

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7635 A Simple and Empirical Refraction Correction Method for UAV-Based Shallow-Water Photogrammetry

Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

Abstract:

The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: Bottom elevation, multi-view stereo, river, structure-from-motion.

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7634 Study of the Electromagnetic Resonances of a Cavity with an Aperture Using Numerical Method and Equivalent Circuit Method

Authors: Ming-Chu Yin, Ping-An Du

Abstract:

The shielding ability of a shielding cavity with an aperture will be greatly degraded at resonance frequencies, and the resonance modes and frequencies are affected by aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling, which are closely related with aperture sizes. The equivalent circuit method and numerical method of Transmission Line Matrix (TLM) are used to analyze the effects of aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling on the electromagnetic resonances of a cavity with an aperture in this paper. Both analytical and numerical results show that the resonance modes of a shielding cavity with an aperture consist of cavity resonance modes and aperture resonance modes, and the resonance frequencies will shift with the change of the aperture sizes because of the aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling. Variation rules of electromagnetic resonances with aperture sizes for a cavity with an aperture are given, which will be useful for design of shielding cavities.

Keywords: Aperture-cavity coupling, equivalent circuit method, resonances, shielding equipment.

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7633 Postbuckling Analysis of End Supported Rods under Self-Weight Using Intrinsic Coordinate Finite Elements

Authors: C. Juntarasaid, T. Pulngern, S. Chucheepsakul

Abstract:

A formulation of postbuckling analysis of end supported rods under self-weight has been presented by the variational method. The variational formulation involving the strain energy due to bending and the potential energy of the self-weight, are expressed in terms of the intrinsic coordinates. The variational formulation is accomplished by introducing the Lagrange multiplier technique to impose the boundary conditions. The finite element method is used to derive a system of nonlinear equations resulting from the stationary of the total potential energy and then Newton-Raphson iterative procedure is applied to solve this system of equations. The numerical results demonstrate the postbluckled configurations of end supported rods under self-weight. This finite element method based on variational formulation expressed in term of intrinsic coordinate is highly recommended for postbuckling analysis of end-supported rods under self-weight.

Keywords: Variational method, postbuckling, finite element method, intrinsic coordinate.

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7632 T-Wave Detection Based on an Adjusted Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima

Authors: Samar Krimi, Kaïs Ouni, Noureddine Ellouze

Abstract:

The method described in this paper deals with the problems of T-wave detection in an ECG. Determining the position of a T-wave is complicated due to the low amplitude, the ambiguous and changing form of the complex. A wavelet transform approach handles these complications therefore a method based on this concept was developed. In this way we developed a detection method that is able to detect T-waves with a sensitivity of 93% and a correct-detection ratio of 93% even with a serious amount of baseline drift and noise.

Keywords: ECG, Modulus Maxima Wavelet Transform, Performance, T-wave detection

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7631 Evaluation of a PSO Approach for Optimum Design of a First-Order Controllers for TCP/AQM Systems

Authors: Sana Testouri, Karim Saadaoui, Mohamed Benrejeb

Abstract:

This paper presents a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method for determining the optimal parameters of a first-order controller for TCP/AQM system. The model TCP/AQM is described by a second-order system with time delay. First, the analytical approach, based on the D-decomposition method and Lemma of Kharitonov, is used to determine the stabilizing regions of a firstorder controller. Second, the optimal parameters of the controller are obtained by the PSO algorithm. Finally, the proposed method is implemented in the Network Simulator NS-2 and compared with the PI controller.

Keywords: AQM, first-order controller, time delay, stability, PSO.

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7630 The Simulation and Experimental Investigation to Study the Strain Distribution Pattern during the Closed Die Forging Process

Authors: D. B. Gohil

Abstract:

Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: Experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution.

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7629 Using Interval Trees for Approximate Indexing of Instances

Authors: Khalil el Hindi

Abstract:

This paper presents a simple and effective method for approximate indexing of instances for instance based learning. The method uses an interval tree to determine a good starting search point for the nearest neighbor. The search stops when an early stopping criterion is met. The method proved to be very effective especially when only the first nearest neighbor is required.

Keywords: Instance based learning, interval trees, the knn algorithm, machine learning.

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7628 On Modified Numerical Schemes in Vortex Element Method for 2D Flow Simulation Around Airfoils

Authors: Ilia Marchevsky, Victoriya Moreva

Abstract:

The problem of incompressible steady flow simulation around an airfoil is discussed. For some simplest airfoils (circular, elliptical, Zhukovsky airfoils) the exact solution is known from complex analysis. It allows to compute the intensity of vortex layer which simulates the airfoil. Some modifications of the vortex element method are proposed and test computations are carried out. It-s shown that the these approaches are much more effective in comparison with the classical numerical scheme.

Keywords: Vortex element method, vortex layer, integral equation, ill-conditioned matrix.

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7627 Modeling of Temperature Fields of Gas Turbine Blades by Considering Heat Flow and Specified Temperature

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A new mathematical model for calculating the temperature field of the profile part of the cooled blades of gas turbines is developed. The theoretical substantiation of the method is based on the application of the method of potential theory (the method of boundary integral equations). The effectiveness of the implementation of the developed mathematical model is confirmed on the basis of a computational experiment.

Keywords: Modeling of temperature fields, gas turbine blades, integral methods, cooled blades, gas turbines.

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7626 Intra Prediction using Weighted Average of Pixel Values According to Prediction Direction

Authors: Kibaek Kim, Dongjin Jung, Jinik Jang, Jechang Jeong

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a method to reduce quantization error. In order to reduce quantization error, low pass filtering is applied on neighboring samples of current block in H.264/AVC. However, it has a weak point that low pass filtering is performed regardless of prediction direction. Since it doesn-t consider prediction direction, it may not reduce quantization error effectively. Proposed method considers prediction direction for low pass filtering and uses a threshold condition for reducing flag bit. We compare our experimental result with conventional method in H.264/AVC and we can achieve the average bit-rate reduction of 1.534% by applying the proposed method. Bit-rate reduction between 0.580% and 3.567% are shown for experimental results.

Keywords: Coding efficiency, H.264/AVC, Intra prediction, Low pass filter

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7625 On the Study of the Electromagnetic Scattering by Large Obstacle Based on the Method of Auxiliary Sources

Authors: Sami Hidouri, Taoufik Aguili

Abstract:

We consider fast and accurate solutions of scattering problems by large perfectly conducting objects (PEC) formulated by an optimization of the Method of Auxiliary Sources (MAS). We present various techniques used to reduce the total computational cost of the scattering problem. The first technique is based on replacing the object by an array of finite number of small (PEC) object with the same shape. The second solution reduces the problem on considering only the half of the object.These t

Keywords: Method of Auxiliary Sources, Scattering, large object, RCS, computational resources.

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7624 3D Objects Indexing with a Direct and Analytical Method for Calculating the Spherical Harmonics Coefficients

Authors: S. Hellam, Y. Oulahrir, F. El Mounchid, A. Sadiq, S. Mbarki

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method for threedimensional object indexing based on D.A.M.C-S.H.C descriptor (Direct and Analytical Method for Calculating the Spherical Harmonics Coefficients). For this end, we propose a direct calculation of the coefficients of spherical harmonics with perfect precision. The aims of the method are to minimize, the processing time on the 3D objects database and the searching time of similar objects to a request object. Firstly we start by defining the new descriptor using a new division of 3-D object in a sphere. Then we define a new distance which will be tested and prove his efficiency in the search for similar objects in the database in which we have objects with very various and important size.

Keywords: 3D Object indexing, 3D shape descriptor, spherical harmonic, 3D Object similarity.

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7623 Novel Approach to Design of a Class-EJ Power Amplifier Using High Power Technology

Authors: F. Rahmani, F. Razaghian, A. R. Kashaninia

Abstract:

This article proposes a new method for application in communication circuit systems that increase efficiency, PAE, output power and gain in the circuit. The proposed method is based on a combination of switching class-E and class-J and has been termed class-EJ. This method was investigated using both theory and simulation to confirm ∼72% PAE and output power of >39dBm. The combination and design of the proposed power amplifier accrues gain of over 15dB in the 2.9 to 3.5GHz frequency bandwidth. This circuit was designed using MOSFET and high power transistors. The loadand source-pull method achieved the best input and output networks using lumped elements. The proposed technique was investigated for fundamental and second harmonics having desirable amplitudes for the output signal.

Keywords: Power Amplifier (PA), GaN HEMT, Class-J and Class-E, High Efficiency.

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7622 Solution of Fuzzy Maximal Flow Problems Using Fuzzy Linear Programming

Authors: Amit Kumar, Manjot Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, the fuzzy linear programming formulation of fuzzy maximal flow problems are proposed and on the basis of the proposed formulation a method is proposed to find the fuzzy optimal solution of fuzzy maximal flow problems. In the proposed method all the parameters are represented by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using the proposed method the fuzzy optimal solution of fuzzy maximal flow problems can be easily obtained. To illustrate the proposed method a numerical example is solved and the obtained results are discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy maximal flow problem, Ranking function, Triangular fuzzy number

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7621 Monthly River Flow Prediction Using a Nonlinear Prediction Method

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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7620 Attitude Stabilization of Satellites Using Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Attitude Stabilization of Satellites Using Random Dither Quantization

Abstract:

Recently, the effectiveness of random dither quantization method for linear feedback control systems has been shown in several papers. However, the random dither quantization method has not yet been applied to nonlinear feedback control systems. The objective of this paper is to verify the effectiveness of random dither quantization method for nonlinear feedback control systems. For this purpose, we consider the attitude stabilization problem of satellites using discrete-level actuators. Namely, this paper provides a control method based on the random dither quantization method for stabilizing the attitude of satellites using discrete-level actuators.

Keywords: Quantized control, nonlinear systems, random dither quantization.

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7619 Source Direction Detection based on Stationary Electronic Nose System

Authors: Jie Cai, David C. Levy

Abstract:

Electronic nose (array of chemical sensors) are widely used in food industry and pollution control. Also it could be used to locate or detect the direction of the source of emission odors. Usually this task is performed by electronic nose (ENose) cooperated with mobile vehicles, but when a source is instantaneous or surrounding is hard for vehicles to reach, problem occurs. Thus a method for stationary ENose to detect the direction of the source and locate the source will be required. A novel method which uses the ratio between the responses of different sensors as a discriminant to determine the direction of source in natural wind surroundings is presented in this paper. The result shows that the method is accurate and easily to be implemented. This method could be also used in movably, as an optimized algorithm for robot tracking source location.

Keywords: Electronic nose, Nature wind situation, Source direction detection.

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7618 Application of Smooth Ergodic Hidden Markov Model in Text to Speech Systems

Authors: Armin Ghayoori, Faramarz Hendessi, Asrar Sheikh

Abstract:

In developing a text-to-speech system, it is well known that the accuracy of information extracted from a text is crucial to produce high quality synthesized speech. In this paper, a new scheme for converting text into its equivalent phonetic spelling is introduced and developed. This method is applicable to many applications in text to speech converting systems and has many advantages over other methods. The proposed method can also complement the other methods with a purpose of improving their performance. The proposed method is a probabilistic model and is based on Smooth Ergodic Hidden Markov Model. This model can be considered as an extension to HMM. The proposed method is applied to Persian language and its accuracy in converting text to speech phonetics is evaluated using simulations.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Models, text, synthesis.

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7617 A Hybrid Neural Network and Gravitational Search Algorithm (HNNGSA) Method to Solve well known Wessinger's Equation

Authors: M. Ghalambaz, A.R. Noghrehabadi, M.A. Behrang, E. Assareh, A. Ghanbarzadeh, N.Hedayat

Abstract:

This study presents a hybrid neural network and Gravitational Search Algorithm (HNGSA) method to solve well known Wessinger's equation. To aim this purpose, gravitational search algorithm (GSA) technique is applied to train a multi-layer perceptron neural network, which is used as approximation solution of the Wessinger's equation. A trial solution of the differential equation is written as sum of two parts. The first part satisfies the initial/ boundary conditions and does not contain any adjustable parameters and the second part which is constructed so as not to affect the initial/boundary conditions. The second part involves adjustable parameters (the weights and biases) for a multi-layer perceptron neural network. In order to demonstrate the presented method, the obtained results of the proposed method are compared with some known numerical methods. The given results show that presented method can introduce a closer form to the analytic solution than other numerical methods. Present method can be easily extended to solve a wide range of problems.

Keywords: Neural Networks, Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSR), Wessinger's Equation.

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7616 Approximated Solutions of Two-Point Nonlinear Boundary Problem by a Combination of Taylor Series Expansion and Newton Raphson Method

Authors: Chinwendu. B. Eleje, Udechukwu P. Egbuhuzor

Abstract:

One of the difficulties encountered in solving nonlinear Boundary Value Problems (BVP) by many researchers is finding approximated solutions with minimum deviations from the exact solutions without so much rigor and complications. In this paper, we propose an approach to solve a two point BVP which involves a combination of Taylor series expansion method and Newton Raphson method. Furthermore, the fourth and sixth order approximated solutions are obtained and we compare their relative error and rate of convergence to the exact solution. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented to show the behavior of the solution and its derivatives.

Keywords: Newton Raphson method, non-linear boundary value problem, Taylor series approximation, Michaelis-Menten equation.

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7615 Compensation Method Eliminating Voltage Distortions in PWM Inverter

Authors: H. Sediki, S. Djennoune

Abstract:

The switching lag-time and the voltage drop across the power devices cause serious waveform distortions and fundamental voltage drop in pulse width-modulated inverter output. These phenomenons are conspicuous when both the output frequency and voltage are low. To estimate the output voltage from the PWM reference signal it is essential to take account of these imperfections and to correct them. In this paper, on-line compensation method is presented. It needs three simple blocs to add at the ideal reference voltages. This method does not require any additional hardware circuit and off- line experimental measurement. The paper includes experimental results to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. It is applied, finally, in case of indirect vector controlled induction machine and implemented using dSpace card.

Keywords: Dead time, field-oriented control, Induction motor, PWM inverter, voltage drop.

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7614 Using the Transient Plane Source Method for Measuring Thermal Parameters of Electroceramics

Authors: Peter Krupa, Svetozár Malinarič

Abstract:

Transient plane source method has been used to measure the thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity of a compact isostatic electroceramics at room temperature. The samples were fired at temperatures from 100 up to 1320 degrees Celsius in steps of 50. Bulk density and specific heat capacity were also measured with their corresponding standard uncertainties. The results were compared with further thermal analysis (dilatometry and thermogravimetry). Structural processes during firing were discussed.

Keywords: TPS method, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, thermal analysis, electroceramics, firing.

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7613 A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model for Multi-Variate Forecasting Analysis with Fuzzy C-Means Clustering

Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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