Search results for: Relative risk.

Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Afamefuna J. Ani, Ebere U. Okolo

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This paper seeks to assess the implications of insurance to foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which foreign direct investment was influenced. The result showed that insurance premium (IP), asset size of insurance industry (AS), and total investment of the industry (TI) impacted significantly and positively on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. There should be effective risk transfer mechanism and financial intermediation, which gives the investor confidence in the risk management strength of the host country.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, insurance.

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Authors: Semeh Ben Salem, Sami Naouali, Moetez Sallami

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Clustering is a well known data mining technique used in pattern recognition and information retrieval. The initial dataset to be clustered can either contain categorical or numeric data. Each type of data has its own specific clustering algorithm. In this context, two algorithms are proposed: the k-means for clustering numeric datasets and the k-modes for categorical datasets. The main encountered problem in data mining applications is clustering categorical dataset so relevant in the datasets. One main issue to achieve the clustering process on categorical values is to transform the categorical attributes into numeric measures and directly apply the k-means algorithm instead the k-modes. In this paper, it is proposed to experiment an approach based on the previous issue by transforming the categorical values into numeric ones using the relative frequency of each modality in the attributes. The proposed approach is compared with a previously method based on transforming the categorical datasets into binary values. The scalability and accuracy of the two methods are experimented. The obtained results show that our proposed method outperforms the binary method in all cases.

Keywords: Clustering, k-means, categorical datasets, pattern recognition, unsupervised learning, knowledge discovery.

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: Risk, Control, Banking, FMECA.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Chie Urawa

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Cautionary statements or disclaimers in corporate annual reports need to be carefully designed because clear cautionary statements may protect a company in the case of legal disputes and may undermine positive impressions. This study compares the language of cautionary statements using two corpora, Sony’s cautionary statement corpus (S-corpus) and Panasonic’s cautionary statement corpus (P-corpus), illustrating the differences and similarities in relation to the use of meaningful cautionary statements and critically analyzing why practitioners use the way. The findings describe the distinct differences between the two companies in the presentation of the risk factors and the way how they make the statements. The word ability is used more for legal protection in S-corpus whereas the word possibility is used more to convey a better impression in P-corpus. The main similarities are identified in the use of lexical words and pronouns, and almost the same wordings for eight years. The findings show how they make the statements unique to the company in the presentation of risk factors, and the characteristics of specific genre of professional communication. Important implications of this study are that more comprehensive approach can be applied in other contexts, and be used by companies to reflect upon their cautionary statements.

Keywords: Cautionary statements, corporate annual reports, corpus, risk factors.

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Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

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Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software were conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: Erosion, seepage, landfill, stability.

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Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

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The distribution, enrichment, and accumulation of zinc (Zn) in the sediments of Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site (KODS), Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from two outer disposal site stations and nine disposed stations in the KODS were collected per quarterly in 2009 and characterized for Zn, aluminum, organic matter, and grain size. Results showed that the mean Zn concentrations varied from 48 mg/kg to 456 mg/kg. Results from the enrichment factor (EF) and geo-accumulation index (Igeo) analyses imply that the sediments collected from the KODS can be characterized between moderate and moderately severe degree enrichment and between none and none to medium accumulation of Zn, respectively. However, results of potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low ecological potential risk. The EF, Igeo, and Zn concentrations at the disposed stations were slightly higher than those at outer disposal site. This indicated that the disposed area centers may be subjected to the disposal impaction of harbor dredged sediments.

Keywords: ocean dispose; zinc; enrichment factor; potential ecological risk index.

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Authors: M. Toghyani, A. Ghasemi, S. A. Tabeidian

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The present study was carried out to evaluate the effect of different levels of dietary seed and extract of Harmal (Peganum harmala L.) on immunity of broiler chicks. A total of 350 one-day old broiler chicks (Ross 308) were randomly allocated to five dietary treatments with four replicates pen of 14 birds each. Dietary treatments consisted of control, 1 and 2 g/kg Harmal seed in diet, 100 and 200 mg/L Harmal seed extract in water. Broilers received dietary treatments from 1 to 42 d. Two birds from each pen were randomly weighed and sacrificed at 42 d of age, the relative weight of lymphoid organs (bursa of Fabercius and spleen) to live weight were calculated. Antibody titers against Newcastle and influenza viruses and sheep red blood cell were measured at 30 d of age. Results showed that the relative weights of lymphoid organs were not affected by dietary treatments. Furthermore, antibody titer against Newcastle and influenza viruses as well as sheep red blood cell antigen were significantly (P<0.05) enhanced by feeding Harmal seed and extract. In conclusion, the results indicated that dietary inclusion of Harmal seed and extract enhanced immunological responses in broiler chicks.

Keywords: Broiler chicks, Harmal, immunity.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings.

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Authors: Z. Popova, L. S. Pereira, М. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, K. Doneva, V. Alexandrov, M. Kercheva

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This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29%91%) were found for seasonal agricultural drought relating the SPI (2) for “July-Aug" with the simulated RYD of rainfed maize while in Stara Zagora and Sofia the relationships are less accurate (R2>71%). When rainfed maize is grown on soils of large TAW economical losses are produced when high peak season SPI (2) < -0.50 in Plovdiv/Stara Zagora and SPI (2) < -0.90 in Sofia. The corresponding NIR thresholds were identified.

Keywords: Drought vulnerability, ISAREG simulation model, South Bulgaria, SPI-index

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Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

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Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result there is always a risk that they themselves could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of structural damage that may been countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to better judge and quantify risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk, so that they themselves do not become victims.

Keywords: Damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field.

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Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

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The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5km of factory) (N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04%) (p =0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67%, respectively) (p <0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p<0.001 for females; p = 0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: Cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey.

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Authors: Amruta Khairnar, Joy Sen

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Disparity in India has been persisting since independence causing many socioeconomic problems and its removal has become the most prime objective of the planned development in India. Hence the paper attempts to study the disparity at State and Regional level and gives inclusive planning guidelines to achieve balanced regional development. At State level, the relative socioeconomic backwardness of Vidarbha Region based on Interregional analysis using selected indicators like Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development Index, Per Capita District Domestic Product has been assessed and broad guidelines have been proposed. In the later part at Regional level, the relative backwardness of districts based on Intraregional analysis using socioeconomic indicators has been assessed within Nagpur sub region and factors responsible for backwardness & disparity have been indicated. The policy guidelines for Identified sub region have been proposed based on the most significant factor and their extent of relationship explaining backwardness Nagpur sub region.

Keywords: Balanced Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development Index, Per Capita District Domestic Product, Regional Disparity, Socioeconomic Inequality, Vidarbha Region.

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Authors: Yulu Zhang, Atushi Teramoto, Taka-Aki Ohkubo

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In this study, the effect of expansive additives on autogenous shrinkage and delayed expansion of ultra-high strength mortar was explored. The specimens made for the study were composed of ultra-high strength mortar, which was mixed with ettringite-lime composite type expansive additive. Two series of experiments were conducted with the specimens. The experimental results confirmed that the autogenous shrinkage of specimens was effectively decreased by increasing the proportion of the expansive additive. On the other hand, for the specimens, which had 7% expansive additive, and were cured for seven days at a constant temperature of 20°C, and then cured for a long time in either in an underwater, moist (Relative humidity: 100%) or dry air (Relative humidity: 60%) environment, excessively large expansion strain occurred. Specifically, typical turtle shell-like swelling expansion cracks were confirmed in the specimens that underwent long-term curing in an underwater and moist environment. According to the result of hydration analysis, the formation of expansive substances, calcium hydroxide and alumina, ferric oxide, tri-sulfate contribute to the occurrence of delayed expansion.

Keywords: Ultra-high strength mortar, expansive additive, autogenous shrinkage, delayed expansion.

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Authors: Alireza Hajiani Boushehrian, Nader Hataf, Arsalan Ghahramani

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When the foundations of structures under cyclic loading with amplitudes less than their permissible load, the concern exists often for the amount of uniform and non-uniform settlement of such structures. Storage tank foundations with numerous filling and discharging and railways ballast course under repeating transportation loads are examples of such conditions. This paper deals with the effects of using the new generation of reinforcements, Grid-Anchor, for the purpose of reducing the permanent settlement of these foundations under the influence of different proportions of the ultimate load. Other items such as the type and the number of reinforcements as well as the number of loading cycles are studied numerically. Numerical models were made using the Plaxis3D Tunnel finite element code. The results show that by using gridanchor and increasing the number of their layers in the same proportion as that of the cyclic load being applied, the amount of permanent settlement decreases up to 42% relative to unreinforced condition depends on the number of reinforcement layers and percent of applied load and the number of loading cycles to reach a constant value of dimensionless settlement decreases up to 20% relative to unreinforced condition.

Keywords: Shallow foundation, Reinforced soil, Cyclic loading, Grid-Anchor, Numerical analysis.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: Variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility.

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Authors: Alshalaa A. Shleeg, Issmail M. Ellabib

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Breast cancer is a major health burden worldwide being a major cause of death amongst women. In this paper, Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) are developed for the evaluation of breast cancer risk using Mamdani-type and Sugeno-type models. The paper outlines the basic difference between Mamdani-type FIS and Sugeno-type FIS. The results demonstrated the performance comparison of the two systems and the advantages of using Sugeno- type over Mamdani-type.

Keywords: Breast cancer diagnosis, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy intelligent technique.

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Authors: S. Dabiran

Abstract:

Chest pain is one of the most prevalent complaints among adults that cause the people to attend to medical centers. The aim was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of chest pain among over 30 years old people in Tehran. In this cross-sectional study, 787 adults took part from Apr 2005 until Apr 2006. The sampling method was random cluster sampling and there were 25 clusters. In each cluster, interviews were performed with 32 over 30 years old, people lived in those houses. In cases with chest pain, extra questions asked. The prevalence of CP was 9% (71 cases). Of them 21 cases (6.5%) were in 41-60 year age ranges and the remainders were over 61 year old. 19 cases (26.8%) mentioned CP in resting state and all of the cases had exertion onset CP. The CP duration was 10 minutes or less in all of the cases and in most of them (84.5%), the location of pain mentioned left anterior part of chest, left anterior part of sternum and or left arm. There was positive history of myocardial infarction in 12 cases (17%). There was significant relation between CP and age, sex and between history of myocardial infarction and marital state of study people. Our results are similar to other studies- results in most parts, however it is necessary to perform supplementary tests and follow up studies to differentiate between cardiac and non-cardiac CP exactly.

Keywords: Chest pain, myocardial infarction, risk factor, prevalence

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Authors: A.Campanile, M. Mandarino, V. Piscopo

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This paper deals with the problem of non-uniform torsion in thin-walled elastic beams with asymmetric cross-section, removing the basic concept of a fixed center of twist, necessary in the Vlasov-s and Benscoter-s theories to obtain a warping stress field equivalent to zero. In this new torsion/flexure theory, despite of the classical ones, the warping function will punctually satisfy the first indefinite equilibrium equation along the beam axis and it wont- be necessary to introduce the classical congruence condition, to take into account the effect of the beam restraints. The solution, based on the Fourier development of the displacement field, is obtained assuming that the applied external torque is constant along the beam axis and on both beam ends the unit twist angle and the warping axial displacement functions are totally restrained. Finally, in order to verify the feasibility of the proposed method and to compare it with the classical theories, two applications are carried out. The first one, relative to an open profile, is necessary to test the numerical method adopted to find the solution; the second one, instead, is relative to a simplified containership section, considered as full restrained in correspondence of two adjacent transverse bulkheads.

Keywords: Non-uniform torsion, Asymmetric cross-section, Fourier series, Helmholtz equation, FE method.

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Authors: Emre Alptekin, Damla Yalçınyiğit, Gülfem Alptekin

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In highly competitive environments, a growing number of companies must regularly launch new products speedily and successfully. A company-s success is based on the systematic, conscious product designing method which meets the market requirements and takes risks as well as resources into consideration. Research has found that developing and launching new products are inherently risky endeavors. Hence in this research, we aim at introducing a risk evaluation framework for the new product innovation process. Our framework is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology. We have applied all the stages of the framework on the risk evaluation process of a pharmaceuticals company.

Keywords: Evaluation, risks, product innovation.

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Authors: Mulugeta Shegaze, Mekitie Wondafrash, Alemayehu A. Alemayehu, Shikur Mohammed, Zewdu Shewangezaw, Mukerem Abdo, Gebresilasea Gendisha

Abstract:

Background: The 2004 World Health Assembly called for specific actions to halt the overweight and obesity epidemic that is currently penetrating urban populations in the developing world. Adolescents require particular attention due to their vulnerability to develop obesity and the fact that adolescent weight tracks strongly into adulthood. However, there is scarcity of information on the modifiable risk factors to be targeted for primary intervention among urban adolescents in Ethiopia. This study was aimed at determining the magnitude and risk factors of overweight and obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in February and March 2014 on 456 randomly selected adolescents from 20 high schools in Addis Ababa city.  Demographic data and other risk factors of overweight and obesity were collected using self-administered structured questionnaire, whereas anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. The WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk was applied to assess dietary habit and physical activity. Overweight and obesity status was determined based on BMI-for-age percentiles of WHO 2007 reference population. Results: The prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and overall overweight/ obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa were 9.7% (95%CI = 6.9-12.4%), 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-6.0%), and 13.9% (95%CI = 10.6-17.1%), respectively. Overweight/obesity prevalence was highest among female adolescents, in private schools, and in the higher wealth category. In multivariable regression model, being female [AOR(95%CI) = 5.4(2.5,12.1)], being from private school [AOR(95%CI) = 3.0(1.4,6.2)], having >3 regular meals [AOR(95%CI) = 4.0(1.3,13.0)], consumption of sweet foods [AOR(95%CI) = 5.0(2.4,10.3)] and spending >3 hours/day sitting [AOR(95%CI) = 3.5(1.7,7.2)] were found to increase overweight/ obesity risk, whereas high Total Physical Activity level [AOR(95%CI) = 0.21(0.08,0.57)] and better nutrition knowledge [AOR(95%CI) = 0.160.07,0.37)] were found protective. Conclusions: More than one in ten of the high school adolescents were affected by overweight/obesity with dietary habit and physical activity are important modifiable risk factors. Well-tailored nutrition education program targeting lifestyle change should be initiated with more emphasis to female adolescents and students in private schools.

Keywords: Adolescents, NCDs, overweight, obesity.

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Authors: Jung-Lo Park, Sung-Sik Kim, Sun-Young Choi, Ju-Hyung Kim, Jae-Jun Kim

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Sub-prime mortgage crisis which began in the US is regarded as the most economic crisis since the Great Depression in the early 20th century. Especially, hidden problems on efficient operation of a business were disclosed at a time and many financial institutions went bankrupt and filed for court receivership. The collapses of physical market lead to bankruptcy of manufacturing and construction businesses. This study is to analyze dynamic efficiency of construction businesses during the five years at the turn of the global financial crisis. By discovering the trend and stability of efficiency of a construction business, this study-s objective is to improve management efficiency of a construction business in the ever-changing construction market. Variables were selected by analyzing corporate information on top 20 construction businesses in Korea and analyzed for static efficiency in 2008 and dynamic efficiency between 2006 and 2010. Unlike other studies, this study succeeded in deducing efficiency trend and stability of a construction business for five years by using the DEA/Window model. Using the analysis result, efficient and inefficient companies could be figured out. In addition, relative efficiency among DMU was measured by comparing the relationship between input and output variables of construction businesses. This study can be used as a literature to improve management efficiency for companies with low efficiency based on efficiency analysis of construction businesses.

Keywords: Construction Company, DEA, DEA/Window, Efficiency Analysis

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-TOPSIS, fuzzy set, FDM, flight safety.

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Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

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Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

The sanitary sewerage connection rate becomes an important indicator of advanced cities. Following the construction of sanitary sewerages, the maintenance and management systems are required for keeping pipelines and facilities functioning well. These maintenance tasks often require sewer workers to enter the manholes and the pipelines, which are confined spaces short of natural ventilation and full of hazardous substances. Working in sewers could be easily exposed to a risk of adverse health effects. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of noncarcinogenic health risk assessment of sewer workers. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances in sewers and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity and mortality of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity and mortality rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, sanitary sewerage, healthrisk assessment, hazard quotient, target organ-specific hazard index.

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Authors: Nieves M. C. Talavera-Prieto, Abel G. M. Ferreira, António T. G. Portugal, Rui J. Moreira, Jaime B. Santos

Abstract:

The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1 MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg⋅m- 3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg·m-3 corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about 3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application. These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of density prediction at high pressure when compared with other equations of state.

Keywords: Biodiesel, Correlation, Density, Equation of state, Prediction.

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Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A. K. M. Mohiuddin, Yulfian Aminanda

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Fuzzy logic system (FLS) is used in this study to predict the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and motion resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it operates in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the intelligent air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction force (TF), motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH) and cushion pressure (CP). Ultrasonic displacement sensor, pull-in solenoid electromagnetic switch, pressure control sensor, micro controller, and battery pH sensor are incorporated with the Fuzzy logic system to investigate experimentally the TF, MR, CH, and CP. In this study, a comparison for tractive performance of an intelligent air cushion track vehicle has been performed with the results obtained from the predicted values of FLS and experimental actual values. The mean relative error of actual and predicted values from the FLS model on traction force, and total motion resistance are found as 5.58 %, and 6.78 % respectively. For all parameters, the relative error of predicted values are found to be less than the acceptable limits. The goodness of fit of the prediction values from the FLS model on TF, and MR are found as 0.90, and 0.98 respectively.

Keywords: Cushion pressure, Fuzzy logic, Motion resistance, Traction force.

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

Abstract:

Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: Civil engineering, occupational health, productivity, safety climate.

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Authors: Udeme O. Ini, Edikan E. Akpanibah

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This paper studies the optimal investment strategies for a plan member (PM) in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with transaction cost, taxes on invested funds and couple risky assets (stocks) under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. The PM’s portfolio is assumed to consist of a risk-free asset and two risky assets where the two risky assets are driven by the O-U process. The Legendre transformation and dual theory is use to transform the resultant optimal control problem which is a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) into linear PDE and the resultant linear PDE is then solved for the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategies for PM exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) using change of variable technique. Furthermore, theoretical analysis is used to study the influences of some sensitive parameters on the optimal investment strategies with observations that the optimal investment strategies for the two risky assets increase with increase in the dividend and decreases with increase in tax on the invested funds, risk averse coefficient, initial fund size and the transaction cost.

Keywords: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, portfolio management, Legendre transforms, CARA utility.

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